Rural lending specialist Rabobank expects the 2026-27 dairy season to be another strong one for farmgate milk prices, but says rising inflation will take its toll.

After a string of strong Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auctions, Rabobank expects a robust opening milk price from dairy co-op Fonterra of $9.50 to $10.00 per kg of milksolids for the 2026-27 season.

However,  the bank said the inflationary impacts of geopolitical disruption were likely to squeeze farmer margins in the new season.

The Country's Jamie Mackay explained further.

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Rural lending specialist Rabobank expects the 2026-27 dairy season to be another strong one for farmgate milk prices, but says rising inflation will take its toll.
After a string of strong Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auctions, Rabobank expects a robust opening milk price from dairy co-op Fonterra of $9.50 to $10.00 per kg of milksolids for the 2026-27 season.
However, &nbsp;the bank said the inflationary impacts of geopolitical disruption were likely to squeeze farmer margins in the new season.
The Country's Jamie Mackay explained further.
LISTEN ABOVE

Best of Business is the home of all things business at Newstalk ZB, from morning market updates right through to incisive interviews with New Zealand’s top business leaders and decision makers. 

Whether you’re a small business owner or interested in what’s going on in the Big End of Town, this podcast encompasses the sharpest voices and minds in the world of business.

Best of Business is the home of all things business at Newstalk ZB, from morning market updates right through to incisive interviews with New Zealand’s top business leaders and decision makers. Whether you’re a small business owner or interested in what’s going on in the Big End of Town, this podcast encompasses the sharpest voices and minds in the world of business.

Best of Business is the home of all things business at Newstalk ZB, from morning market updates right through to incisive interviews with New Zealand’s top business leaders and decision makers.

Best of Business

Jamie Mackay: The Country host on Fonterra's opening shot for the 26/27 season forecast milk price

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/0064a13e-3997-4fc1-aebc-b456007ac2e5/transcript

There's a belief New Zealand First's proposal to slash the tax rate for small businesses could make a positive difference to our business landscape.  

The party's promising to lower the tax rate from 28% to 20% for firms with turnover under $30 million.

Its estimated cost is about a billion dollars a year.

BusinessNZ Chief Executive Katherine Rich told Kerre Woodham it would apply to a majority of our businesses. 

She says it would need to be researched for implementation, but it's bold and could transform business in New Zealand   

LISTEN ABOVE 

There's a belief New Zealand First's proposal to slash the tax rate for small businesses could make a positive difference to our business landscape. &nbsp;
The party's promising to lower the tax rate from 28% to 20% for firms with turnover under $30 million.
Its estimated cost is about a billion dollars a year.
BusinessNZ Chief Executive Katherine Rich told Kerre Woodham it would apply to a majority of our businesses.&nbsp;
She says it would need to be researched for implementation, but it's bold and could transform business in New Zealand &nbsp;&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Katherine Rich: BusinessNZ CEO on the impact NZ First's proposed tax cut for small and medium businesses could have

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/1bc51b6c-c0df-43f9-acb9-b4d00023c91b/transcript

The political parties have pressed go on their election campaigns and every morning from now until November 7th, we'll have a full smorgasbord of party promises to pick over. Lucky, lucky us.  

Of course, most of them aren't worth the paper they're printed on. The minor parties have the luxury of promising you a pony and a castle and fairy bread for the rest of your life, then when it comes time to stump up after the election, they'll be all, "Oh, soz, we really wanted to, but those mean Nats/Labourites wouldn't let us. Sorry." So everything you hear, take with a grain of salt.  

And everything the two main parties promise, ask yourself how they expect us to pay for it, because they won't be paying for it out of their party war chests. We will be. You and me. So when the policies come out from National and Labour, think like a supermodel – one of the OG supermodels, Linda Evangelista, famously said, "I don't get out of bed for less than $10,000 a day." And that was back in the 80's, that would be serious coin now. Ask yourself when you hear the policies promised by National and Labour, "is this worth me getting out of bed for to do a full day's work and pay my taxes?" 

Back to the breakfast buffet of election promises. New Zealand First says it will cut the tax rate for small businesses by almost a third, from 28 to 20%. The reduced rate would apply to companies with a turnover under $30 million, which sounds like small businesses are pretty big businesses. They say, New Zealand First, it will cost a billion dollars, but that will be more than returned with increased productivity, long term investment, and increase in labour demand, employment, and wages.  

But what would you do if your tax was cut by 8%? Where would you put that extra money? Because it comes back to the reason why you started your own business, became your own boss. Is it to be the next Bill Gates? There are a number of you that I've talked to over the years who could grow your businesses, but you don't want the hassle. You could take on more staff, but you don't want to. Once your business gets to a certain turnover, you want to kick back and enjoy life, coach the kids' sport, take time off during the holidays. It's the batch, the boat, the BMW mentality. You have enough for the life you want to live. You don't want to invest in new capital or more staff or do more hours or pack your bags and head overseas and hustle for the next contract. Why? You've achieved a level of comfort that you're happy with. You don't want to be a billionaire.  

What does success look like to you? If you became your own boss, if you set up your own business, what was that for? To give you freedom? To give you independence? To make a fortune? If New Zealand First got this one over the line in a coalition agreement with National or Labour, what would you do with that extra 8%? Do like New Zealand First believes you will, reinvest it back in the business? Or would you use it to just live your best life, get there faster? And I'd love to know the motivation behind setting up your own business. For the people who've phoned me over the years, it's been about lifestyle, about making your own choices, making your own decisions. It's not been about chasing the buck, but I'd love to hear from you. 

The political parties have pressed go on their election campaigns and every morning from now until November 7th, we'll have a full smorgasbord of party promises to pick over. Lucky, lucky us. &nbsp;
Of course, most of them aren't worth the paper they're printed on. The minor parties have the luxury of promising you a pony and a castle and fairy bread for the rest of your life, then when it comes time to stump up after the election, they'll be all, "Oh, soz, we really wanted to, but those mean Nats/Labourites wouldn't let us. Sorry." So everything you hear, take with a grain of salt. &nbsp;
And everything the two main parties promise, ask yourself how they expect us to pay for it, because they won't be paying for it out of their party war chests. We will be. You and me. So when the policies come out from National and Labour, think like a supermodel – one of the OG supermodels, Linda Evangelista, famously said, "I don't get out of bed for less than $10,000 a day." And that was back in the 80's, that would be serious coin now. Ask yourself when you hear the policies promised by National and Labour, "is this worth me getting out of bed for to do a full day's work and pay my taxes?"&nbsp;
Back to the breakfast buffet of election promises. New Zealand First says it will cut the tax rate for small businesses by almost a third, from 28 to 20%. The reduced rate would apply to companies with a turnover under $30 million, which sounds like small businesses are pretty big businesses. They say, New Zealand First, it will cost a billion dollars, but that will be more than returned with increased productivity, long term investment, and increase in labour demand, employment, and wages. &nbsp;
But what would you do if your tax was cut by 8%? Where would you put that extra money? Because it comes back to the reason why you started your own business, became your own boss. Is it to be the next Bill Gates? There are a number of you that I've talked to over the years who could grow your businesses, but you don't want the hassle. You could take on more staff, but you don't want to. Once your business gets to a certain turnover, you want to kick back and enjoy life, coach the kids' sport, take time off during the holidays. It's the batch, the boat, the BMW mentality. You have enough for the life you want to live. You don't want to invest in new capital or more staff or do more hours or pack your bags and head overseas and hustle for the next contract. Why? You've achieved a level of comfort that you're happy with. You don't want to be a billionaire. &nbsp;
What does success look like to you? If you became your own boss, if you set up your own business, what was that for? To give you freedom? To give you independence? To make a fortune? If New Zealand First got this one over the line in a coalition agreement with National or Labour, what would you do with that extra 8%? Do like New Zealand First believes you will, reinvest it back in the business? Or would you use it to just live your best life, get there faster? And I'd love to know the motivation behind setting up your own business. For the people who've phoned me over the years, it's been about lifestyle, about making your own choices, making your own decisions. It's not been about chasing the buck, but I'd love to hear from you.&nbsp;

Kerre Woodham: Are these election promises worth it to you?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/1495ce66-fb37-4293-ab00-b4d00005f772/transcript

Another positive annual result for Fonterra despite challenging weather conditions and global volatility. 

The dairy co-op's confirmed a total cash return to shareholders of $19.6 billion. 

The final Farmgate Milk Price payout for dairy farmers is $9.69, down from a record-high payout of $10.16 last year. 

DairyNZ CEO Campbell Parker told Ryan Bridge the results reflect not only strong strategy, but strong execution. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Another positive annual result for Fonterra despite challenging weather conditions and global volatility.&nbsp;
The dairy co-op's confirmed a total cash return to shareholders of $19.6 billion.&nbsp;
The final Farmgate Milk Price payout for dairy farmers is $9.69, down from a record-high payout of $10.16 last year.&nbsp;
DairyNZ CEO Campbell Parker told Ryan Bridge the results reflect not only strong strategy, but strong execution.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Campbell Parker: DairyNZ CEO on Fonterra's positive annual result

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/096c753d-f30d-4a37-83e7-b4cf018a315c/transcript

Jamie Mackay: The Country host on Fonterra's opening shot for the 26/27 season forecast milk price

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