P+L co-host Lisa Abramowicz sits down with Cumberland Advisors Co-Founder David Kotok to talk about his career path, stand out moments, and the advice he gives current students in business school.
Bloomberg Behind the Scenes is brought to you by Interactive Brokers. Use an integrated investment account from Interactive Brokers to earn, borrow, spend, and invest globally from one account. Learn more at ib k R dot com from the Interactive Broker's Market Lounge. I'm Lisa rom Wits, and joining me now is David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Cumberland Advisers. H David, thank you so much for being here. We want to get a sense of how you became you, what got you into this industry. Tell us how you started. Oh my gosh, that's a long piece of history, Lisa, three or four minutes instead of three or four hours. So I don't know what we're gonna do so quickly. Um. I was always interested all my life in economics finance. Always started in a grocery store, in a family market. Always looked at things like prices, why they change, why people do transactions, various things, and I have followed that path all my life. It enables me to like what I do, which is why I'm still working and continue to work as long as possible. And I find the interconnection of economics and finance fascinating every single minute. So what's the youngest you were when you can remember thinking this is really interesting, the idea of how much something costs sixties some years ago when I was ten or so, uh well, maybe even longer than sixties some I remember a potato shortage and the family market took delivery of potatoes that my grandfather Blesses Memory, had purchased in the futures market. Where was this. This is in southern New Jersey and co Talks market And I remember going with my father to look at a Roosta County main to see how bad the crop was, digging in the dirt with farmers, and I thought about why did the ko Talk Market family food process vending distribution business have potatoes to for its customers and others didn't. And it was because of the futurest market. It was because of doing research, hands on research. I did it myself. I'm gonna be seventies six. This was when I was ten, digging in the dirt with my father asking him what are you doing? And he says, I want to see this potato crop is not good. And we went back the market, bought futures, delivered and fed the town with potatoes because of it. All right, So fast forward just a little bit. Where did you go to school and what was your first job out of it? Well, I went to Wharton and I went back to penn two more times. Nobody else would have me. So I have three degrees and they're off from the University of Pennsylvania. You and I had to deal with the sixties. So I was in the army from sixties six to sixty nine, and during that period of time I did some work with a Swiss bank in Zurich while I was stationed in Stuttgart, and then came back and I registered myself as an investment advisor in seventy. In those days, you wrote out the forms by hand and filed them yourself, and you didn't need fancy law firms to do it for you. So what as it class did you really focus on? To begin with? The socks? Initially stocks bonds were boring there not anymore. But at the time you didn't think about bonds. You thought about the stock market, and you thought about domestic influences much less than geopolitical influences. But remember this was a period of time after the Korean War. Then it was after the Vietnam War. Then it was in the seventies, the sixties and the seventies, which are marvelous pieces of history if you can remember them. What period of time do you think was the most interesting to be an investor? For you? Right this minute is the most interesting time to be an investor and an investment advisor. I get up in the morning and I say, you have spent fifty years as an adult, I hope, as an adult, training, practicing, studying, thinking, to prepare to go to work every single day. Now, think about it. We're in a global trade war. We have this wrestling match between the two largest economies in the world, China in the US. We haven't had anything like that since the thirty Smooth Haully. We have this narrative of changing circumstances. Here we are with energy Venezuela. What's happening Sitko? Who's in control? Maduro's board? The other board? Forty nine point nine percent of the claim is in the hands of Russia, I mean China. This is wild narrative, and I guess that's the most important element. We are accustomed you as a professional and a journalist. My role as an investment advisor. We are accustomed to numerousy tell us the earnings missed was three cents, we know how to deal with it. Tell Us the interest rate is going to go up forty basis points down forty basis points. We know how to deal with it. But when you deal with narratives, not numeroucy, and we are in this protracted period in which we deal with narrative, narrative, narrative, not new mercy. This is new. It is new for anybody who hasn't been in this business thirty or forty or fifty years. And for those of us who have, we have trouble remembering things, so we have to go read. What what advice would you give a Wharton student today who is going into the business. I would say, listen to the wisdom of Winston Churchill, study history, history, history, history, and when you're all done history, That's what I would say. Alright, So, just real quick, what period of time do you think is most analogous to today? You have to go back to the pre World War two era to get the trade war piece and the geopolitical cross currents. Now, in this highly technical world, we have had no experience like it. Maybe the catapult a thousand years ago was a modern invention that we could look again. David Kotak, it has been such a pleasure having you with us. Thank you so much. That's David Kotak, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Cumberland Advisers. This has been Bloomberg behind the scenes from the Interactive Broker's market Lounge. Behind the Scenes was brought to you by Interactive Brokers. Interactive Brokers constantly strives to innovate and create technology to automate your trading experience with their advanced trading tools, learn how Interactive Brokers helps lower your cost to maximize returns. That I b k R dot com. I'm Lisa abram Witz. This is Bloomber