Beating The Book: Super Bowl LVIII MegaPod Betting Preview

Published Feb 7, 2024, 7:44 PM

Gill Alexander, Todd Wishnev (VSiN Contributor), Will Hill (VSiN Contributor), and Rufus Peabody (Professional Sports Bettor) break down all of the Super Bowl betting action! It's the Kansas City Chiefs-San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58 from Las Vegas. The quartet gives you their best bets for the Super Bowl.

Wednesday morning, January seventh, twenty twenty four. It is the Beating the Book Podcast, our final megapod of the year. I can't believe we've gotten here. Super Bowl fifty eight super Bowl megapod. I think I said super Bowl twice. It is your super Bowl fifty eight megapod. You get the idea. It's skill Alexander, and it is the usual cast of characters, not just for the year, but also for our super Bowl megapod. This is kind of his slot. He's been kind enough to join us through the years. First of all our regulars from his mom's cork attict Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Great Todd Wishnev, How you doing? Toddy?

Hey Gilly?

Hey Gilly, you look pretty good man. You get your haircut, You got your beard going, your mustache.

I didn't get my haircut.

Oh okay, shit it you showered? Can we go that far shower?

I'm mixed in a shower for every once in.

A while, it's like I showered for this. And then the host of the Should Have Bet More podcast, Will Hill, everybody, Hey doing, will how you living? The pod? Cast? Man enjoy doing it?

It's good.

Yeah, it's been fun.

It's good.

It's it's hard to believe we're here at the end of football season. I just you know, we start this off in what first few days of September, and then before you know it, middle of February, it just comes and it goes really quickly.

It's incredible. It is a lot of it's a lot of podcasts. It was a great year, though. Can I just tell you, guys, I'll just tell you guys on air what I may have set to you off air? Best year I think of the megapot ever, I think we had such You guys are great, always something interesting to say, and I think our guests week after week after week were always so insightful. This year, there was always some random but interesting conversation, and I think that that sort of set this year apart. Now I'm supposed to ask who did you like? Yeah, now I'm supposed to ask who'd you like better than everybody else? But I won't ask that now. Man, You guys were great, will This is your first year too, man, so you started off hit the ground running.

Man, much appreciate it. Yeah, it was a lot of fun. And when you we talk to these people that come on and you could learn stuff from him.

It Uh, it's.

Very informative and it's entertaining, and that's the whole purpose.

So the fact that you had to ramp up because wish Neev wouldn't let you talk for like the first seven weeks, I thought that was great. Yeah.

Yeah, week eight, I finally got my first word and that was a big day for me.

That was awesome, Tom.

I was trying to keep the quality content up, you know what I mean?

I understand. Uh, here's our guy who's always here. He's at least here once during the regular season, but he's always our super Bowl guy because that is where he made his hay. That is how he became famous. It's Rufus Peabody. Everybody, half the Massive Peabody team, half of the Best the Processed podcast hosting team with Jeff ma and of course co founder of Unobated.

Less than half of unovated, less than half of monbated.

Were you like a third, a quarter, a fifth? What are you something like a fifth of an abated? Who's it you, Jag and who else?

There's some other people in the back end.

I don't want to know, Okay, other people on the back end.

Dan Fabrizio. Oh yeah, I remember Dan.

Dan Fabrizio, Wow, how's he doing?

Snyder, Kevin Casata.

I don't know what was Dan from Risio's thing back in the day. It was sports insights, sports insights, sports insights. Yeah, I was confusing my head sports insights in sports option remember that one, right, even though I know they're not They're not the same.

At all, But that's right in my head somehow, Like.

Rufus was on a numbers game earlier this week. For so for those who heard that, there's gonna be a little repetition here. But for those who remember Rufus from previous years here on this podcast. Rufus beyond all the the beyond the pedigree that I just mentioned is first and foremost above all that known as a very successful professional sports better. And you came to the four. You came to prominence, or at least you came to the public knowledge first from Washington Post article over a decade ago about you betting Super Bowl props. And we talked a little bit about that still a go to thing for you after all these years. It is.

It's it's changed a little bit.

I'm not running around with the team at people trying to hit these openers in Las Vegas anymore, because the openers don't really happen in Las Vegas anymore. Right, But we still are, we still have the band is back together. We're going to be betting this weekend. You know, Little Zach White flies in tomorrow, My brother flies in tonight, train flies in tomorrow. I think as well, if today's Wednesday, I'm losing track of the days.

Litill Zach, Big Zach train, those are three.

Well, big Zach's mad dog. He's then Zach mad Dog. Yeah, okay, little Zach, mad Dog train, Little Zach, my brother train.

Oh so not the so not the full band, but not most of the band. Okay, and your brother has seamlessly gone in hees. How do you enjoy working get with your brother?

It's good.

I mean Tom like provides. I think his skill set is is is complimentary. You know, he's he's not doing the modeling like I am, but he's very good at at managing all the relationships we have, getting us accounts, keeping on top of that trading.

He's learned a.

Lot and he's he's an invaluable member of the team.

And you said on the show the other day that you anticipate You can't know this for sure, but you anticipate having two million dollars in action here on this game on props.

Yeah, if we don't, then I that's if we don't, then I didn't plan accordingly.

What do you mean by that?

Just logistics and stuff. I'm not going to get into details.

Okay, sorry.

A lot of a lot of it is logistical planning and trying to figure out where you wanted to play your capital, Like how much do I want in the Fandoel app? How much do I want? Like how much do we want like to go into the Westgate app? How much do we want for someone at stations you know to bet there?

Right?

Like, it's like how flexible are we?

It wouldn't be a matter of not finding enough edge. It would just be the logistical part.

It could be finding and not enough of an edge. But has that hope that's not the case. The thing is there will always be edges. It feels like, even if they're not the huge edges on game day, like betting player X to not score two touchdowns. Things like that, where you know, if I'm laying minus seven hundred, you know on something I think should be minus nine thirty six.

Right, that's an edge. It's not a huge ROI.

But okay, so the biggest difference you were talking about, you back in the day used to do the whole thing, and we remember it. If we were in Vegas, you know, the Westgate could be relied on to have their opening props at a certain time and date during the week.

It used to be Tuesdays before they went to Thursday.

Tuesdays and then to Thursday. It's right, two week run up, but that the week before the super Bowl, and then the other books. It would always be like we're about, oh, I got the South Point just open. Oh my god, that the William Hill just opening. And that was the third thing. But now you're saying, of that two million dollars, you've got fifty thousand in place so far. You are about to do one point nine to five million of that and we're doing this Wednesday morning, three days before the super Bowl.

Yeah, that's why that's why i'm a little I mean, we've never had this small amount bet at this point.

We just haven't really, we just haven't really done anything yet.

Okay, So on one Monday, one Monday, when you were on a numbers game. You were pretty nonchalant about it. You're a little more nervous about it now.

I'm not nervous. I'm just overwhelmed with the work I have to do still okay, and didn't get it, and you're and you're still doing it right now.

I'm not doing it, okay.

I'm trying to figure out, well, like who g I or Brown is?

But can I tell people what the notebook that you have that you were writing all your notes in. So Rufus sits down and he plops he plops this down in front of me as he's doing his notes and is a notebook is titled this is actual printed living with a micro penis, overcoming the stigma of having a small penis, which is a real conversation starter.

It was a gift from a friend.

It's so great. I would totally get one of those. Just sit down next to somebody, next to a girl, pop that down and be like, hey, what do you mean? Like you said, it can only be can only be a surprise for me?

She can't Warner.

It's right, okay. So that's where you are right now, Do you have anything and we'll start, We'll bring in todd and will for this? Do you on the side and the total? Will you have anything? By the way, should also be noted that Rufus just asked me if I could if he could borrow ten bucks from me to pay the valet downstairs.

It turns out I didn't bring my wallet.

Yeah, so there's that.

I was in the car and I was like, where's my wallet?

Yes, do you have anything on the side and total? Will you have anything on the side total?

I don't, I probably won't, but I probably will have stuff that might be correlated with it. So I might have like some alternate totals or alternate sides or things like that, but not on the primary game market.

And the alternate ones will be because they are not priced correctly.

Probably probably, I mean yes, yes, because otherwise why would I price correctly?

But is that? But is that always going to But what else goes into that? If it's not just the pricing being correct? What else? When you mean correlate, you're not gonna have a play on the thing, but you're gonna have someone alternate just because there's a variance of outcomes that you will have.

I think I'll have things that are correlated to the under most likely in general. So I may not have an alternate total on the game, but I'll probably have like Patrick Mahomes to have zero touchdown passes or a lot of props that are going to be correlated to the under. I probably, I mean, I'll have some correlated to the over as well, or probably to some of the tail events.

Like I mean, there was a lot of scoring last year, wasn't.

There in the Super Bowl last year? Yeah?

Yeah, I don't even remember the score, Yeah, thirty five, I think, Yeah, that was.

It was really high scoring, and we actually had a really good Super Bowl. We returned over ten percent, so kind of ran where we expected to. But if you told me the score was there was seventy points scored, I would have said that we probably lost a lot. So I think we're more diversified than we used to be in that regard. We made a lot of money on defensive player stuff last year and betting against sacks. We were very anti sack, and it turns out the field conditions were in our favor.

Yes, they did not anticipate that. They complained very much about those field conditions. Both teams did. By the way, you're familiar with fieldgate this year. No practice facilities not doesn't any tell me the Niners are very upset at their field conditions at u n l V.

Are they practicing at like Sanboyd Stadium or something.

Whatever UNLV gave them, you know, because the Chiefs got the Raiders practice facilities all there, you know, say to the art indoor and outdoor.

Stell why did they get that? Does it it's a random home team?

That must be it, Yes, because every designation, it's a designation of who the home team is.

Yeah, it's predesignated locations for every Super Bowl.

So it's like NFC AFC alternates correct. So so that means the Chiefs got a good one last year. They got a nice probably a nicer practice facility last year or sorry then no, actually wait no, the Chiefs, the Chiefs. The Chiefs got a bad practice facility last sorry.

The difference and they still won the difference here though, being that like the Niners went ahead. They they were like, wait a minute, the field is spongy. We can get players hurt on this. And there's something called a gmax score. First time I ever heard this, which quantifies the ability of the player service to absorb the kinetic energy from a collision. The lower the score, the more energy the field absorbs, potentially creating an injury risk for the player in question. Typically, a GMCH score is between seventy and eighty. The Niners practice field only got forty eight. Ooh, they only did. They did a bunch of quick improvements that got to the low fifties. Roger Goodell completely dismisses it. And so what ends up happening is that probably tomorrow, when the practices get a little more serious, the Chiefs are going to go to the Raiders. Excuse me, the Niners are going to go to the Raiders practice facility. They're going to practice super duper early. The Niners are pissed behind the scenes that Goodell could have told the Chiefs will at least move their practice so we can get a better practice time. Goodell wasn't willing to do that. He's like, go take it up with the Chiefs. Jed Yorke said, it's not the Chiefs problem. They didn't create this problem. So the Niners, even though Shanahan out loud is like, h it's no big deal. We're not worried at all. They're a little pissed, and they and they almost went back to Santa Clara to practice.

Well, it's the whole script, right, haven't you heard? Oh right, the Chiefs are gonna win because the tailor sweat.

That's exactly right.

Yeah, so this is all part of the plan Todd. So maybe I will bet on the Chiefs.

There it is, end of show. Todd. Did you have anything on the side of total.

And I don't think so. I'm just going to in game.

It, Willie.

I do think what Todd said about in gaming, it's probably the better way to go, just because at two there are some two and a half Like these live markets are so sensitive, where if San Francisco gets the ball first and gets a couple of first downs across this midfield, or Kansas City gets it first and goes three and out, you're probably going to get a three and a half at some point or three at some point in this game.

That two two and a half is.

A little bit of a dead number, but just directionly, I like Kansas City here. I think you're getting obviously the better quarterback. I think you're getting the better defense. You're getting a couple of points. I like read more than Shanahan. There's a major kicking advantage with the Chiefs, and that's just a lot. And you know, we talked about this on a numbers game where it's possible the AFC's just much better than the NFC. If you look at the head to head with San Francisco struggling against these AFS teams. I mean, they got be handled by the Bengals, they lost to PJ. Walker and the Browns. They got buried by the Ravens. The Ravens killed the forty nine Ers, the Lions, the Seahawks, the Cowboys got buried by the Bills. The Cowboys lost to the Dolphins. So we went into the season thinking there's a gap between the AFC and the NFC. The AC is a much better conference, I think with San Francisco, Dallas and Philly playing well middle of the season, remember Philly was ten and one, Dallas looked good, I think it swung the other way. We thought, all right, maybe these conferences are equal. Maybe we were right all along, and there's a little bit of a gap between the AFC and the NFC. So I do like the Chiefs. I don't feel great about it. Again, it's a tricky game because the Chiefs have been playing so much better recently, but the forty nine Ers were the better team all season. But taking the points with the Chiefs and what is pretty much a toss up game, I think the way to go here.

Yeah, I'll do my greatest hits here and you can you know to the extent what you want to agree or disagree with any of this. But I think your point about the conferences is a fascinating one because it's so apparent it's staring us in the face. We've lived with it for a whole season, and I'm not sure that we're really on that. But my thing is, you could look at this game two ways from macro standpoint One is on Christmas Night when both the Chiefs, Todd and I watched this Chiefs Raiders game on Christmas Day where the Chiefs looked horrific and eight and O'Connell didn't complete a pass the last three quarters of the game and the Raiders still won. They barely like did design blitzes on Mahomes. He got pressured at a high rate, and when he wasn't pressured, he is patting the ball back there looking for receivers desperately if you had told us that day, oh, the Chiefs are still gonna be in the Super Bowl, we would have just been flabbergast. There's no way. And then later that night the Niners got crushed, Brock Purdy had his laying of the Egg game by the Ravens. And even with those two losses, the Niners probably would have been five or six point favorites on a neutral that day, Even with those bad losses. That's one way to look at the game of Hey, just six weeks ago, the Niners would have been way more of a favorite. The other way is exactly what Will was saying, which is, do a teach art, do the check mark thing things. So think about old Jimmy the Greek quarterback, Czech Chiefs coach check Andy Reid tight ends, Travis Kelcey bought her body of work, even even Kittle being as good as he is, Check Chiefs kicker, Butcker big check.

Why is he a big check mark over Moody? Really yeah, I'm dead serious here.

Moody is a Moody is a rookie who has looked horrible of late.

Okay, Moody hasn't missed an extra point this year. I feel like if you look at like if you look just at the field goals, you throw out the extra points. There's a lot of signal and like making what was it like forty five out of forty five extra points something like that, Whereas Butcker's missed some extra points, so I.

Think it's one extra point.

Mooty did points. Okay, sorry, I thought he liked one, but maybe he did. Jake Moody was twenty one of twenty five on field goals this regular season. Now we're talking two of three from fifty plus. He missed one extra.

Point, easy one in the rain in Cleveland, to cost me two bets against in that.

Cleveland in the rain, in the rain.

That's not going to be raining in the postseason. I mean, I hope it's not raining in the green Was it.

The Green Bay game where he got the field goal kicked at the end of the first half when Shanahan botched it? He got the kicking both both post season game games. He's missing in a row and Harrison, hold on, Harrison, let me just finish Dodd Harrison. Butker's thirty was this regular season was thirty three of thirty five. He was perfect from fifty plus five of five. He was perfect on extra points thirty eight of thirty eight and uh in that first postseason game, I believe he was four or four from field goals and two for two from the extra points. I can't remember what he was in the second one, but or the or in the in the in the second or third. But that's the latest that I have right in front of me. Butker is by far the better kick.

I have a question for you is do we how much does like kicker skill improve at age like twenty eight versus age twenty seven, and like how much are we how much will we we be waiting previous seasons like for example, last year, Butcker was thirty eight for forty one and extra points like career, he's only ninety four and a half percent on extra points now.

He's been in the league a long time. You you always see this.

With the kicker will have a really good year with the team, maybe after being released by another team because he was kicking poorly. Your points see this all the time, Like it's a small sample size.

Your point is well taken. Would you put you would not put the check mark for Bucker is what you're saying.

I would put a small check market. But I don't think it's a big check mark. I don't think it's a big.

Sure making a point. It's like when when someone in a way, Butcker.

Last year was eighteen eighteen for twenty four on field goals last year eighteen for twenty four, seventy five percent.

That had to be one of the low marks in the league.

Anyway, you still said, just set the check mark.

For Butker last year going into this game, probably last year, probably going into the Super Bowl, people were probably like, oh, Butcker's a liability for the Chiefs, Like, Butker does not get the check.

Mark, Okay, but the Niners certainly don't hear, and so they also for what Will's point was about, schedule, Chiefs get the check war. So I've just listed five check marks for the Chiefs, none for the Niners. The Niner's biggest check markers, they're only checkmark which is a massive offensive advantage as a whole, as a collective. Right, So I'm just saying the spread on Christmas Night, this check mark.

Thing, you take some random positions to give them the check marks, right, You're like tight end kicker.

You didn't say like, I'm just thinking of the bigger positions on.

Okay, kicker, very big position.

Well it is, isn't it.

You should be you're taking kicker.

MVP adds No, but if you're wait a minute, are you minimizing the importance of a kicker for sure? Well, then you're you gotta be kidding me.

In terms of like, I mean, all the kickers are so close together, except maybe the Detroit kicker in terms of value.

It's it's like when Bill mar gets interrupted on a bit, like we're doing a bit here, I'm going through the whole thing. You you have still not refuted the point that the check marks should go to the Niners. We're listing, we're listing. I mean they should go to the Chiefs. The Chiefs get so many more. Are you disputing that they wouldn't get all those check marks?

So you're saying the Chiefs are more talented team than the.

No, I'm saying the nine Listen. I got the Niners to be the Chiefs exact at eleven to one. I got MVP. I got MVP bets on only Niners. I'm financially into the Niners here. I want the Niners to win. But I'm just trying to make the case for both sides, and the biggest check marks one could argue our quarterback and coaching, which I think, given Kyle Shanahan's propensity to choke it up in some of these games, I think that those are the two biggest check marks. Though, that large check mark on the Niners offense is what has me in the position I'm in.

So Lelly, what about the check mark about the two last two games? They shouldn't even be in the super Bowl exactly. They should have easily lost to the Green Bay Packers. Yeah, they should have easily lost to the Detroit Lions. Now, granted, the Chiefs looked like absolute shit up until the last couple of weeks, but Andy got in there, started cooking up things and doing his old Andy stuff. And Andy, I like Andy in a situation where he's not the overwhelming god. I like him when he's like a dog. I remember him in Philadelphia. I don't know if you guys remember when they first came up with Donovan McNabb and they would be underdogs and they would cook up these amazing game plans. And that's what I felt like the last couple of weeks in the playoffs. He was cooking up some great game plans. He knows his team has deficiencies in catching the football specifically, but you know he cooked it up. And here's one other thing, and I said this to Cleave Ta on our last megapod. The San Francisco forty nine Ers can't stop the run.

That was my other big check mark is that the Chiefs defense is currently a check mark.

And the Detroit Lions ran all over them, as did the Packers. And if Pachecko, this is why I'd like to end game the game. And if Pachecko is going to get the ball handed off and gash for six and seven yards of play four times in a row, and then they run on third and twelve and get it like the Detroit Lions did, it's going to be a long day for the San Francisco forty nine Ers defense, as it's been for many, many of the last couple of weeks. Now, granted they're supposedly the better team from the whole year. I'm with you, and the reason I don't want to just take the Chiefs right off the bat is it looks too obvious to me, and it smells whenever in the NFL, it looks too obvious. You gotta be careful and now you're going to get the Niners best performance. You would think after they know they shouldn't have been there. But you know, right off the bat, like you said, the Chiefs look better now a little.

And right and while and while that was happening, the Chiefs were beating the Dolphins, the Bills, and the Ravens. The FeliCa just texted earlier that on ESPN they pulled sixty four of their own air personalities. Who's gonna win the game? Forty nine? Said the Chiefs. So the Niners are winning, baby.

Let's go. Yeah.

Can we call him put check mark? The problem is he probably doesn't get the check mark. I think we CAAF forgets the chief.

Of course he does. Yeah that when it comes to offensive skills, it's all Niners anyway.

The other massive gap too, the forty nine er skill guys compare to the chief guys.

Yeah, the massive I will say this too.

One more thing, like in support of the Chiefs, I think, like to Todd's point about the Chiefs dropping the ball, since the playoffs started, they really weeded out some of these weak parts. I made the comparison early on in numbers game to baseball team when they get to the playoffs, they don't use their fifth starters. Sometimes they don't use their fourth starter. They don't use their lesser bullpen guys. It's just like their three or four best starters. They're three best bullpen guys. Because the guys like Tony Justin Watson, these guys have been weeded out. They really only trust Kelsey Rice Pacheco, and their usage is gone up and they've kind of weeded out the other guys.

I also think that while it's important in any sporting event, or while it's advantageous to score first, and I usually say this before game seven of a playoff in hockey, oh if you score that first goal and you're up one to nothing in a game, say, oh man, what a big advantage? That feels like I feel like these two teams for us, as offensively strong as we think of the Niners and as offensively strong as we think of Mahomes. Historically, if this team, if either of these teams fall behind one score, let alone two, and we've seen it with the Niners, you might be able to miraculously or improbably come back against the Lions or the Packers, It's a different thing against a Patrick Mahomes, who seems to have embraced this game managerial thing that's going on with him, Like he gets that his defense is good, he gets that his offense is somewhat, not somewhat, but considerably worse than it used to be in terms of his offensive options. Like, I don't know that the Niners can do that against teams. And by the way, conversely, I don't think Mahomes wants to be in a position where he's got to outmatch the Niners offense if they're down. So I don't know.

I mean, I'm you're forgetting like the Ravens. The Ravens were down, but the Ravens probably I mean, you can make an argument they should have won that game. Oh yeah, you had the fumble into the end zone. Oh yeah, right, you had the interception down the middle, like you had. I mean, the the Ravens lost the turnover battle three nothing. The Chiefs average four point four yards per play. They didn't score in the second half. Like I think that we're we're picking and choosing narratives here.

Let me just say again, I am financially into the Niners. I'm just trying to make the case for both.

I'm not financially indeed either team.

Yeah, yeah, I'm I'm I'm just trying to say that there's so many different ways to look. I'm not picking and choosing. I'm trying to give every possible narrative there is, and I think that there is. So that's what makes this handicap so interesting, right, because I do think you can lock into one of those and be convinced of it without thinking of the others.

That's why I think if we were doing the show last week, I would have picked the forty nine ers. Like I'm not being wish washy for the sake of the content, because who wants to listen to a podcast? Well, I think that this is why this thing could win, right, I think this is why that I mean, there's then you're.

Just I don't know.

I don't think that's fair.

I don't know.

I bet the Chiefs.

I like the Chiefs.

I will say, like I've been back and forth roofus, if you had to pick this game, who would you pick?

Yeah, you're forced to.

It's tough because my numbers would say the Niners yep. Although to be honest, I didn't actually I don't think I actually ran the Nasty Pabody ratings this week because it's like it's one. One game is not going to move the needle that much. That's that's just a nature of the beast, right. But but going into this week or last week, it would to have been nine his minus like four point one.

So you could say maybe it's now Niners.

Minus three and a half or something like that, but not enough for me to bet it. And I do agree, I mean, it does feel like this is It feels in my gut like the Chiefs. But I probably would stick to my process and bet the forty nine ers was forced to see.

It feels in my gut that it's the Niners, like unless brock Purty just has that Layanegg game again, which I guess he hasn't.

He's it's a huge factor.

It is. It is a huge factor.

Maybe he got the nerves out of the way now, I don't know, we don't know.

But I'm like, how many Jimmy Garoppolo itches? Does he have interceptions that should have happened? Many?

Many, many? Hey don't hate on Garoppolo.

Oh the other thing, you know, the other thing that the roof is at four point yards. But I agree they didn't do much in the second half. But they're playing the Ravens, okay, right, the forty nine Ers are playing minor league teams, the Lions and the Packers, and they're they're getting out by the skin of their their barely getting you know, they should have lost those games. I mean, the Ravens crushed those teams, so you know, to me, it seems obvious that at this point in time, the Chiefs are playing better than the Niners. To me, it just seems too obvious. And I'm still scared of the fact that, yes, the forty nine Ers were the better team for the for the better part of the season.

By the way, I did watch was great too.

By the way, what was that was that the defensive coordinator for the chiefdous He's great.

He's already won three Super Bowls as a decordinator, I believe, I'm not mistaken.

It's funny how how quickly he went from like failed, well, actually it's taken a while, right, he failed his.

Head coach, that's right then, but he was.

He was the decoordinator for the Giants when they won the Super Bowl. Before that, got the coaching job failed, then I guess now we won it with the Chiefs once already and twice twice.

It's true, I mean think like I mean twice that Skins guy North Turner. Remember Nor Turner was a really good offensive coordinator, not a good head coach.

It's a coach. I think it's a different skill set.

And I think that if I was, if I was a team owner, I would be looking more for a CEO type leader for.

My head coach. That's just my opinion. I think they're undervalued.

Speaking of Garoppolo, last night, was watching because I'm star for football, was watching the Super Bowl from four years ago, the.

One where Damian Williams should have won the MVP.

One where Damian Williams should have won the MVP exactly right. Uh, the Chiefs were down ten points and the Niners had the ball in the fourth quarter, and then the Chiefs end up winning by eleven. But Garoppolo was so below average. And I'm being nice by the way, Chris Jones batted down a million of his passes, and you just it does leap off the page because we tend to think of we're like, oh, Jimmy Garoppolo, like the Niners got very very far with him. They got it. They perhaps should have won that Super Bowl. Rock Purty is way better than Jimmy Garoppolo ever was. It feels that way for sure now.

But way better.

He's better, He's way better.

I'm not.

I think he's way better. I think he's way better. But I'll tell you why. Because party people for whatever reason, people want to toggle toggle to game manager with perty. He's not a game manager, dude. He makes every throw on the field.

But but I'm just saying, you're saying way better. It's like that's a lot.

Jimmy Garoppolo was never all that great. I mean, he's he's good, but he wasn't like anyway.

He was underrated.

Time will tell. Let's put it that way anyway. I do think though, that there is that possibility again to try to try to cover every angle. There is that possibility that's lurking in behind of anybody's mind, even those of us who have financial interest in the Niners. That God, I hope he just doesn't have that game right where he just fs it up.

And if any was good, if anybody's gonna have that game and lose the game, you don't think it's Mahomes.

Well, it's going to be Mahomes. Yeah, I mean Mahomes.

I mean Mahomes is bad games. I mean he did have that one Tampa Bay Super Bowl, didn't he? Oh?

I thought he was great in that game.

He's sixty minutes away from winning his third Super Bowl, he's already going to his fourth, and he's still in his twenties. Like he's nothing is gonna phase him.

Against Tampa he was like a chick shut off. They couldn't block for him. I mean they were dropping balls. He was great in that game. I thought the one the one really bad half he's played in his career the Bengals AFC Title game two years ago, which was the strangest thing ever because they went up and down the field three times, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown. The fourth drive, they had the ball with the one right before the half and they just got bogged, remember it and bounds. And then the second half he was awful from that point on. He was off. I hope people like maybe he got cost and he didn't want to start making excuses for guys any time they have a bad game with injuries that aren't reported. But he was so bad at that game. They gave that one away. But that's really the only bad one he's play.

Anybody's gonna go Willy, if anybody's gonna go Joe Flacco, If anybody's going to have a Joe Flacco make a duty in my pants in the third quarter's rock hurdy game rock Hurdy, He's going to do it before Patrick Mahomes. That's all I'm saying.

Do you think anybody has ever actually made a duty in their pants out of nerves?

Lamar Jackson had to go to the bathroom on the field and Tony Sarah Gusa there's a famous story with Tony Sarah Gusa that he had to go to the bathroom so bad he couldn't go to the bathroom and nothing was coming out. And then he took all these medications before the game, and then he told the story on Howard Stern. It was amazing and he goes, he goes, he tells the trainer before the game, he says, if I'm down, okay, and I'm laying on my back, you got to bring out a towel because he was scared he was gonna make in his pants on the field. Oh man, you have to go listen to Stern with with Tony Sarah Gusa from like ten years.

Ago, the late the late Tony Sara Oh.

And the best part is they were wearing their white on white universe.

They were, Yes, they were.

It's great.

By the way, chiefs in red, I think for this one niners and they're white, just like the one four years ago. For those who get a damn about back up, All right, props, mister prop man. What have you? What have you bet so far? Of the fifty k you've bet thus far? What's in there?

Well?

First off, as I said to you two days ago, I guess it was one of those bets.

Was actually a mistake.

Bad, that's right, tell that story.

So I I have my little spreadsheet that it's called Super Bowl Distributions and Matchups, which basically it's I put the results of these simulations I run in there, and so I can literally just type in, you know, I have references, so I can type in like a number, like I can type in thirteen and a half, Like I have a column for longest rush in thirteen and a half for mahomes, and it'll it'll reference the simulations and give me what that price should be.

So Mahomes and Pajeco, Like there's a lot of names in the spreadsheet. I mean, not that many.

But and you're getting older.

I'm getting older.

You know.

My vision is still. I don't have to wear glasses still, so that's good or contact. But maybe I should after the story, you know, I'm looking. I put in thirteen and a half. It says like minus one twenty or something. It was like it it wasn't.

A big edge, but I was like, oh, I get to bet a Mahomes over now.

I'm sure I'll be betting unders at game time. Little did I know I was actually looking at Pacheco's longest rush number, so I yeah.

And then and then I ended up, you know.

Talking this is just Patrick Everson and Ben Fox afterwards because they were asking what I bet. And and then Patrick Everson writes this, and I gave a narrative about it about like, well, you know, Patrick Mahomes, It's well, hey, it's the playoffs.

He's gonna run more. He's more likely to scramble more.

And that's generally the case for quarterbacks that athletic running quarterbacks, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, they do scramble more in the playoffs. But also I was like, well, you know, probably less likely to slide than he would in a normal game. You know, it makes sense, But there's down articles sitting out there with why I like over thirteen and a half for Mahomes's longest rive, say.

And they're furiously tweeting it out.

Can I ask you something rufus on your on your modeling? Right is there?

Like?

I would find it very interesting and maybe the audience would too if you don't mind sharing. If you have maybe like for instance, on a Patrick Mahomes rush, that's a great one to talk about. What is the goulash? What is the what is the guts of what the model is taking? Like is it taking one hundred different variables? Is it taking four different is it waiting? You know, the three most important being how he's done against you know, blah blah blah, Like what's in the model that's spitting out these numbers? If you if you don't mind sharing.

Exactly not exactly what I asked on a number, It's not that.

That complex because you're when you're pricing all these props, you can't go that much detail. I mean you can I guess.

But but quarterback rushing is probably i'd say the I mean, certainly the most complex of all the all the rushing. Well, give us one simple okay, no, no, no, I think let's go with quarterbacks. I like this because so quarterback rushes come in three flavors. Can you guess what they are?

Todd the three flaps of quarterback rushes?

Yeah, rambles, designed runs, Boom.

There you go, sneaks, experience, design run.

Oh no, neils, nenel downs, design runs, scrambles. So design runs, you could have quarterbacks sneaks versus other I agree.

I mean I don't.

I don't actually differentiate those, which maybe that's actually probably a smart move to do. But so I've designed because those are design runs. But design runs, neil downs and scrambles. Neil downs are a function of the spread and the basically the point spread. And you know what are the odds like you'll you'll myke at ZERI my kid three.

There's obviously a number, there's number correlated.

I will say, I normally give neil downs negative one rushing yards. I was very fortunate three years ago, I guess was it three four years ago?

Three four?

Yeah, right before the pandemic four four.

I was very fortunate four years ago that Patrick Mahomes took some neil downs of more than negative one yards.

Less than I got that one to. That was lucky.

I was very lucky. But so there's that. Then there's the design directing.

The design runs is for Mahomes, there's not really like he doesn't quarterback sneak it. You don't really see Mahomes design runs. So for him, it's basically going to be the scrambles in the quarterback sneaks and so scrambles.

Like to sneak anymore either because of the injury.

They say exactly, yeah, he doesn't sneak, So it's it's for him, it's it's the scrambles. So I'm looking at a scramble rate, what percentage of dropbacks is he going to scramble and trying to predict that, and then also looking at the defense they're up against San Francisco, what what percentage of dropbacks for other quarterbacks resulting to scramble there, And sort of going from there to establish a scramble rate. And then same thing with like the yards per uh per carry on the scrambles And what's interesting by the way is the correlation between scrambles and sacks generally, I mean, because they're in essence. Oftentimes a sack is a failed attempted scramble, you know, like I think Mahomes got sacked last year on a play where he ran out of bounce for a loss of one yard when he was scrambling. So there is so you can kind of get you can go a little more detail there with the relationship between those two.

Give us a dropbacks. Are you taking into account the fact that, like, what are the chances that the Chiefs are going to be way behind it having to throw a lot or is that just kind of like it just goes by the whole season, this whole season, This is what he's done on scrambling, this is what the Niners have done. Or are you thinking about the actual matchup as well in saying, hey, look they might be behind and if they're behind, he's going to throw more and more dropbacks more scrambles. Is that true or not?

Well?

Right predicting the number of dropbacks right, So more dropbacks equals more scrambles. But it's things are on a rate basis, So you are right, I am looking when I'm trying to predict the run pass mix. And by the way, I consider a scramble of passing play because it was an intent it was it was a play was designed to be a passing play. So I basically look at how often a team runs or passes relative to expectation based on game state. You know, if you're up fourteen in the fourth quarter, much more likely you're running than if you're down fourteen. So I look at what the Chiefs have done this season in those you know, I wait more recent data, more heavily.

The Chiefs, despite the fact that we talk about.

Them now is like a running team, are still a pretty extreme passing team.

They have been all year relative to game situation historically historically, but this year too.

Question historically what is the what is ther and all your Super Bowl prop years, to the extent that you're willing to share, what is a the calculus you were just talking about with quarterback runs, give us a category where you felt like you were way ahead of the books more than others.

Who I mean, maybe I think the longest reception type stuff, longest rush type stuff, probably a little bit with being able to sort of smooth that out and look at because they were just averaging. Yeah, yeah, I think so. And in an understanding regression of the mean for that, you could have a you could have a receiver that's had you know, sixty three percent of his receptions for ten or fewer yards of this year and it's like, you know, twelve percent of them were exactly or maybe fifteen percent or exactly ten yards or something like that, and none were exactly eleven yards.

Do you expect that to continue?

That's probably random, So being able to sort of smooth that out and then regress properly, but.

That still exists your advantage there, do you think?

I think a little bit for sure. And there's I mean, there's interesting narratives that get baked in too. So George Kittle is interesting. And the fact that if you look at his distribution of receiving yards or yards per reception in the first half versus the second half, it's been very different, and not just this year, over the last three seasons. You know, he the second half, I think something like sixty seven percent of his receptions go for more than ten or more yards, and in the first half it's like fifty percent. So how much there is like different routes he's running, is it you know, Well.

It's probably because it's probably because if he's getting the ball thrown to him in the second half, it's because they're behind. So they might be running deeper patterns because typically they'd be ahead in the second half, and if he he's getting the ball thrown to him, it's probably not happening as much because they're gonna be running.

No.

But I mean, I haven't broken it down based on ahead or behind, but I would assume they're playing most of these games from ahead.

They have been the last three years.

Right, because what I did I saw this season, I'm like, so they basically, I mean, they have a different quarterback, but they've had both teams have had the same head coach and the facto offensive coordinator for a long time, and so it's not like the system has changed that much. And so for me, I think I was like, does this persist in previous seasons? The answer was yes. But at the same time, it's still is a small sample, and I think a lot of I mean, this case, maybe there is something to it, and I'm probably going to dig a little deeper into it, but I think a lot of times we can be fooled by things, and because overall, if you look globally the yards, if you're trying to like handicap something like length the first reception I've looked, is there something different about the first reception than others options?

Globally no.

Globally no.

So you could argue though that maybe there are for certain players, But then that's when you kind of want to get I'd want to get into something a little more granular to be able to predict that, like to be able to look and see, oh, George Kittle is running different routes in the first quarter or early in the games than he is in the second half. If I saw that, then I'd be like, Okay, ding, ding ding, this is actually something fundamental and predictive versus you know, maybe he's running versus if he was running basically the same type of route patterns, but he's just gotten more throws on these deeper routes or gotten more yards after the catch or something like that.

I asked this on the radio side. I'll ask it here if there's somebody listening to this who says, oh my god, this is my fucking hero. This is the human being. I want to be rufus Peabody is my north star. What do you recommend to that person as a way to start towards this path therapy? Okay, besides the psychological part of it, what sort of nuts and so what they need to have as an educational background.

I think being comfortable numbers for sure, And so for me that came in the form of, or at least in a far more formal way, statistics and econometrics courses back in college. And then you kind of I kind of went from there. And that also the ability to sort of code, to be able to to be able to kind of answer these questions and build processes to answer these questions.

When you think that's that's the way.

I think of like numbers, right, like in stats like it's a way I can ask a question the data and get an answer.

And your guy, Captain jack has those videos of how to start modeling. I think that's a good start for people, probably right.

I think that's a great, great place to point them too. Captain jacksons great, he looks swave by the way he does doesn't look very swav and he was trying.

To downplay it.

Look, when you're three hundred and nine pounds. There's no swave, there's passable. That's the best you can get.

I've lost a lot of weight here recently, Todd, I'm coming for phesik. What do you weigh now to nineteen?

Well, how'd you get that to two nineteen?

Well, a little illness sort of held sort of sped it up.

The old illness trick. I hate to tell you, my friend, it comes after the illness is the water comes back.

I had already been on the downtrend though, this just sort of turnout it.

I had gained five pounds.

I feel like I might have lost them because I haven't been working out as much as I you know, I would like to since I've been in Vegas.

But wait, so I have another roofous question. Well, a couple more one. We'll get to the props here, individual props heretily the uh the when you and I used to talk over a decade ago about and I remember like you were you were super young, but you had like some introspective thoughts about how you know, you loved doing what you were doing, you were having success doing what you're doing, but you wanted to You didn't view your life as just going to be sports betting for the rest of the time. You wanted to do other things, other more meaningful things, you said at the time. Have you become more comfortable as the years have gone on that sports betting will always be what you do first and foremost?

A great question, you know, I'm.

Gonna say no. I'm going with no. We'd like me.

You know, I had these hopes and dreams that I would he did out.

He did have hopes and dreams.

I kind of have tried to a little bit, you know, with things like unabated right, I wanted I mean, although still in the sports betting realm, but something I've been looking to find more purpose in that way, just because when you're I've been doing the same thing.

What for fourteen or more than more than fourteen years?

More than half your life?

Almost almost, I'm thirty eight. I'm thirty eight, but only fourteen It seems like more, it does. Right, Well, if you go back to college, how old are you know? I wasn't betting in college, Yeah, but.

You were still writing shit right on baseball.

And stuff, right my senior year.

All right, well, that's still how many years? That's sixteen years?

Then two thousand and seven.

I mean, unless you graduated when you were twenty four.

No, but okay, thousand and seven, I guess right, we're into twenty twenty four.

So you still have hopes and dreams.

Well, I think, what's I'm gonna bring a parallel here to gambling? Like what I one thing I do like about gambling is the uncertainty in a way like I've learned to love that and to love like I can control. There's certain things I can control, but certain things I can't control, and not to try try not to stress over the things I can't control.

But if somebody told you.

Like like laid out where your life was going to be ahead of time and said, Okay, in ten years you're gonna be doing this other thing.

Or you know, would you want to see that?

No?

I wouldn't.

And so for me, for me, I love the I love not knowing where my life is being girl. So I think maybe, I mean right now, I don't have any immediate plans to get out of the industry, but I'm definitely burned out. I feel like I've been burned out for like five years. At certain times, I mean certain times I wake up like rearing to go with ideas and wanting to work, but as I get burned out, like is that that? Unfortunately, the percentage of that at the time I'm that way has become less over time.

And so I'm with you on I don't want to know. I'm with you on that.

Yeah.

So, I mean, who knows.

To October nineteenth? People who are born on October nineteenth are typically not just one dimensional, and we know from Rufus some of Rufus's Twitter picks. He's a little bit of a deeper thinger than your typical neandrothal sports better. So I have a feeling that it's not just going to be about sports for I.

Have a failing too. I appreciate that time.

I have a feeling too.

Yeah, and I think other people born in October nineteenth are just fantastic human work.

Wait a minute, were you both born on October nineteenth? Is that what I'm passing?

Yes?

Of course we had a podcast before. I think it was like on or around that day. Oh, that's try, we figured it out.

That's right. Okay.

The other thing, can I just ask him one other quick? Pay? Really? The other thing I wanted to know is on the data, right, you have to get the data into your model. Do you have like data scrapers from play by play or how do you get the data into the model?

Can I can answer this for you? Yes, Because the very first time I met you was at Sloan and We're at a Celtics game and in the suite you were talking about data scraping like a first line out of your mouth. I was like, who's this guy?

So, I mean there's some data that we scrape and some data that we buy. So it's a combination.

You buy from sports radar.

No, no, I don't use sports radar, but I used armchair analysis for a long time, which is now FTN data.

Oh but so I.

Still do that because they have like basically, I have these historical processes that rely on certain files that and this, and as you know, I'm not betting NFL stuff largely during the season, so I kind of it's not like I've invested a ton of effort into upgrading these things, So I kind of, you know, I'm a bit of a dinosaur of a prop better still, because I only do it once a year.

Golf and college basketball now are your go.

Tos in college football too, But we had a losing year for college football. This year did sadly.

Okay, but you still do sooner, Yeah, go ahead to DoD I'm sorry the way roof.

You may want to look at data scraping from five minutes down what the average score is like. If I had a data scraper sitting right here, I would be doing what's the score with five minutes left? With what the score in the game is based on what the original line was. There is definitely because I know just from watching a million games, and obviously I'm not going to be as accurate as a data scraper, but there is definitely value there.

Well, the scraper just gives me the data. It doesn't tell me anything about it.

No, no, but I would know if you if you got the date on spreadsheets, I would know how to query it and say, okay, what's the average amount of points scored in a game? That is a six point game? The favorite it was an eight pre game, and there's five minutes.

Left, So you're talking about the last five minutes.

You're good at that?

Well, no, that's not.

Working out the situational stuff there.

Now we've been we've been good at the last five minutes lately because I've noticed that they're over inflating the last five minutes totals higher because probably everybody wants to bet the total. And then the bigger thing is is that no one's fouling in the last minute the way they used to. So it used to be there was let's say it used to be one point oz fouls. Now it's point sixty five of that you're getting, you know, only twos.

So teams are teams? Are teams are not? I mean, I don't know.

It feels like there's certain teams that right they're they're not fouling down nine with twenty seconds left like they used to be, is what you're saying.

Sometimes even North Carolina last night.

There was a game last night South Carolina. I think we had a small over on it, like over one hundred and thirty.

Five and a half scored the last three minutes.

And it was a five point game and there was two points scored the last three minutes. You expect like you're like, Okay, that's definitely going to win, right, How does that not win?

So I'm saying the last minute has changed.

But you also had another game, another game that I actually had a under an under on where there were was it Butler I forget, No, it wasn't Butler game, but there.

Were North Carolina was down six with a minute left and didn't foul for some reason, they just played it out, which spoiler alert, it didn't work out for them.

Okay, no, I mean it's probably not gonna work out failing too. But there was a game where where there was like thirty five points scored in the last three minutes though without really fouling. I don't know which game was that.

Todd all right, two things. One, I thought we weren't talking about this on air.

I know I should.

I still want to add something. I want to add something in response to Todd's thing though.

But what's interesting in the last five minutes is that, like if you have a big and Todd knows this, I'm sure, but you know with the big blowouts you have sometimes the teams you know it's a thirty point game, you know they're going fast, they're just playing like having fun.

It's an over game, right.

If you have If you have if.

It's a fifteen point game, you know one team's gonna be going slow, one teams can be going fast, and then you have a few possessions basically that determine everything, right where with a minute and a half to go, is it is it going to be a nine point game?

Or is it going to be a thirteen point game?

Like in that right there switch that has switched now to the point where what I'm anyways, I won't say it again because I told Gilly not to bring it up, and Harry.

See, what would be interesting to do for me is to analyze and say, given this situation, like you can have a like and this is what I've done actually for modeling in game stuff like a thing that predicts whether a team will foul in a situation based on do a take foul? Right, Like one thing that's hard to trying to figure out, like okay, you know because sometimes they'll go for a steal first, so it's not an immediate foul to be able to identify whether it's a intentional foul or not, but whether they're foul based on score differential and time remaining, And so I could take a look and sort of see if that is if that's up well, or if that's you're down, I guess sorry if.

You data scrape even just look at the last minute just look at one hundred games of the last minute of three years ago and one hundred games this year.

Yeah, but you have to control. You got to control for situation though.

That's my point, like I have if we have a model and now teams are undershooting, like they're fouling less than we'd expect them to in those situations.

And yeah, I'll tak Yeah. But what's interesting is that totals are up this year, I mean, scoring is up. I mean, but that you do have the rule change.

Welcome back to the Super Bowl fifty eight manut right.

Sorry, really, I apologize, and I pose.

This is what happens to people with the superborn October nineteen.

Sorry interrupt you, Sorry to interrupt your show, Todd. This was no, it's it's that Todd specifically did not want to talk about this on Aeron, yet here we are so.

Because rufe has got me. When Rufus is here, it just gets me into like a data.

Yes notion no. And the first question is a good when I asked that on on a numbers game too, which is what is the secret sauce behind your your super Bowl prop specifically anyway so you become superb Owl as your brother says, that's the best line ever. It's the rape the rapist for five hundred Alex superb Owl, getting around all the copyright things. Okay, so you're you're mainly now a college basketball and golf guy. You've always been golf. You weren't doing college basketball. You've done it now in the last couple of years. You told me the other day it's because somebody came to you and said, hey, I think I might have something here. No, and so you did it.

No, it's actually so so this guy that I brought on, he's on Twitter, Telemachus Model or Telemachus, really really smart, brilliant guy. The best decision I've ever made in my career was like bringing him on. Wow, And that's quite the compliment. Yeah, he's like a developer background. You know, our skill sets are very complimentary. But he had built he'd actually I like I at the time, I wanted to bring him on to help me build better infrastructure for my golf stuff, Like it had nothing to do with college basketball, but I saw but he was talking about this college basketball stuff he had built, and I was like completely blown away by how good the framework was and everything, and and and so I've been able to contribute in some ways to building better projections there.

But it's his baby, and so super Bowls or for the NFL, as you just intobated, NFL is not something you are like super into during the regular season. You still do it, but not to the extent of those other two sports.

The NFL. Yeah, I bet very little.

I think Harson like some teasers which didn't do all that year this year some halftime Betsy which also didn't do great this year.

That's interesting because the edge is just simply not there, or you just don't want to expend the work.

I mean, the teasers are like I mean, I just use the unovated teaser.

The NFL in general, though, I'm just saying.

It's not worth I mean, it's it is Gil.

It's really difficult to to to do a bunch of sports and do them all well. And I think I've realized, I firmly believe markets tent toward efficiency.

It gets harder and harder to win betting sports, and so.

You have to, like you, I've realized I have to specialize more to be able to keep my edge. That's It's what I've done is try to scale out the things that I'm best at.

That's kind of that's kind of what we've done.

We've scaled out golf and college basketball a lot, and so we're betting more than we've ever bet while betting fewer sports.

Okay, and I one thousand percent agree with all of that. To the super Bowl. Then, in your super Bowl history, you've had losing super bowls for sure. Percentage of wins though is more, yes, Okay, what was your best one?

Was your worst hours in terms of ROI was the first Super Bowl I was ever in Vegas four, which was the Cardinals and the Steelers, which to this day I still have not watched that Super Bowl.

I was so nervous, such a great game.

I was playing a round of golf at the I guess the callaway or is it tailor made?

Now?

You know, you know the little nine hole place right by the airport. Yeah, yeah, I was.

You know, I borrowed ten thousand dollars from a friend. I put my entire fifteen thousand dollar bankroll into action or whatever it was maybe a twenty thousand dollars bankroll, and then I had someone invest forty thousand dollars in me and give me a twenty percent free roll on it. Oh man, So I had, like I end up having like sixty one thousand in play, which for a twenty two year old kid he would just finished college like that.

That was a lot of money for me.

Okay, Yeah, And I was so scared and I when I looked at the box score, Gary Russell scored the first touchdown. I had bet him to score it like twenty five to one or something like that, and you knew it was going to be like the return was it was a forty percent ROI super doll. So that was that was the best. But you know, unfortunately it was the Super Bowl that I bet the.

Least amount of money on.

What was the worst?

Oh, that had to be the Eagles Patriots because it was so high scoring.

Yeah, it was high scoring all and then we had like I think the one guy we had over on was Brandon Cooks and he got injured.

He got concussed in the first quarter.

Did you lose on the Philly Special two? Specifically?

Yeah, there was a fourth down conversion, there was there was basically all the things you don't want there to be happened, and we, I mean we knew it was bad at halftime and we all we were staying at Train's place.

We were all watching it there, and I remember which is right on the Legacy golf course.

We like hopped the fence and played like drunk, played the tenth hole there at halftime, and we were.

Just like, yeah, we got blitz because it was it was bad.

All right, let's do it. People have been waiting for props. What'd you get? What'd you bet so far? You know, besides the mistake? What'd you bet? Well, let's start with these.

I don't even I don't have to start with these to me, and I don't even know what it was.

Todd, what did you what did? What have you bet so far? Anything? Nothing?

I will probably the only one I really love, though, is brought to throw more interceptions than Mahomes minus one oh three.

Okay, I'll tell you what I feels.

It feels like a good one, right, even though my numbers have them at the same like exact number of interceptions.

But I have my I have my niners to be chiefs exactly. Which is my last remaining exactly? By the way, it wasn't my only one at eleven to one that's pending. I also bet three m vps before the championship games, which were McCaffrey at six to one to win MVP, which I think is a great number, plus four seventy five, which is still out there now, I think is still a great number. I did get Debo at forty to one. I got Kiddle at eighty to one. I kind of feel like I've made those three bets. Obviously McCaffrey wasn't there for all of them. Every time the Niners get close to the Super Bowl or in the Super Bowl, I think I've made that every time. The props that I've made that are still out there. I have McCaffrey most rushing and receiving yards at minus one sixty. I didn't want to do rushing only and receiving only because I didn't want the chance of a Checko beating him in the rushing category or a random Niners receiver beating him and receiving. Six of the last eight games, though McCaffrey has won the rushing plus receiving, I took him at minus one sixty. Also took him on what does.

That mean he's going to be the number one in the whole game.

I guess the.

Number one hole one sixty. That's kind of I mean, it makes sense that he's a favorite for that. Yeah, it feels steep to me.

Steep.

I don't know, well, I trust I trust him. I haven't. I can look in the sims and find out, but I trust you.

I bet he's minus sixty versus everyone else in the game, Yes.

Sir, huh most rushing and receiving yards uh combined. I bet Mahomes over twenty six and a half yards rushing, just because even though I'm on the nine ers.

Well, you also know that it's probably going to close thirty and a half or something.

So yeah, I think it's a low number, and I think he has really strategically been great with his scrambles. And then I have a third, which I cannot even remember off the top of my head. Now, will what do you have? And I'll remember it.

I like your Mahomes rushing one. I bet that one as well. I don't know if this counts as a prop more of a derivative. I like the Chiefs plus a half a point in the first quarter. You can get it minus one fifty five on DraftKings shop around. I think that's probably the best price. I just think both teams are going to defer. You don't have any Lions or Packer situation where one team's going to win the toss and take the ball. So it's fifty to fifty who gets the ball for ball first. It's just so hard to outscore another team in the first quarter, you know, the nerves with party. Maybe Mahomes has been here before, so I mean we could see a tied first quarter. We could see the Chiefs up three nine or seven three. There's just lots of ways to win.

Chiefs could definitely drive the forty nine.

Ers can only get the ball once in this first quarter, So I'll take the plus a half in the first quarter. Deebo Samuel over rushing, I'm seeing some almost thirteen and a half, fourteen and a half. I just think two weeks for the shoulder to heal. I think they'll get him in. They'll have two weeks to come up with some ways just get the ball in his hand. So I like the over rushing prop there, and you mentioned it for MVP, he's still thirty three to one at some books. To win MVP, you need a way to get production that's detached from the quarterback. You don't need it, but it helps over a thousand career rushing yards nineteen career rushing touchdowns. I could just see. I could see deebo if San Francisco wins, having a big day. I just think the thirty three to one is a long price. Another one I like shop around the largest lead of the game. I'm seeing some fourteen and a half. It's not widely available, but I'm also seeing some thirteen and a halfs. I would not play thirteen and a half, but at fourteen and a half, I would play the under. I just don't see anybody getting out to a lead, where like fifteen and sixteen sort of a dead number. I don't see anybody pulling away in this game having a seventeen plus point lead. So if you can find the under fourteen and a half biggest lead, I like the under.

All right, I got two more. Will the opening kickoff be a touchback? I bet this in many years past, because you knew that one coach had the propensity to defer, the other had the propensity to receive. Not the case this year, however. The no is at plus two sixty five and Jake Moody has a touchback rate that is twenty fifth in the NFL butt gra eighty three point three percent.

So he doesn't.

Yeah, but but here's the thing. The Chiefs tend to like you know, now, how the touchback rules change. You can like fair catch, ball doesn't go to the end zone the chief the Chiefs, the Niners don't really do that.

The Chiefs do.

You're saying they will call a fair catch.

Yeah, I think they're less likely to return it. I have my numbers somewhere because I remember seeing that them and the Niners were on them and the Chiefs were on different sides there.

Let me know if plus two sixty five is not a good price, because that's what I got it at. I thought, if if Moody ends up kicking off and obviously it comes out of that, if it's Butcker where we're kind of dead on arrival, probably.

I make it minus three h seven. But actually I make those teams about the same in terms of touchback rate because the Niners are more likely to bring it out of the end zone.

But Niners more likely to bring with ray Ray. So PLU I bet at No. Plus two sixty five, my thinking being that if Moody kicked off, we could very well get a runback.

What's Moody's rate? I know you said he's twenty fifth, but what is his rate?

His rate is sixty two point three nine percent.

Okay, so' here here we go. I have some numbers here, sixty two point three nine for his touchback rate. Yes, sir, oh, I see it as sixty seven percent. But he hits it. He gets into the end zone seventy point one percent of the time, whereas Butcker is eighty four percent.

Butcker is eighty three point three.

Yes, huh and uh oh, I'm probably using like a decay rate or something like that. But in the end zone touchback percentage ninety four percent for San Francisco kicking off or so, so it's yeah, actually that that's less relevant because that's uh, I mean, it could be like how deep does it go? But but no end zone touchback rate is San Francisco this year ten percent, Kansas City this year twenty three point three percent. That's receiving kickoffs Lee average twenty percent.

So that that still plays in But what you're saying is it still plays into me though, because San Francisco does it less.

San Francisco is less likely to take a kickoff.

Correct. Wait, yes, so Gill is right.

It hurts now, it hurts you because I don't know. I'm either that I'm reading this by chart wrong here.

But yeah, what you what you would you just say?

Well, let's let Todd explain it, because because.

Rufus said what you're saying, he's saying that if Moody has a short kick, which is what you want. You want Moody to have a short kick.

No, I know that fortune Yeah, now I know that's what he was saying. Yeah, I know that what he was saying. But the numbers, the numbers he just gave were the op.

No no, no, I says Kansas Kansas City takes it back or has a touchback percentage of twenty three point three percent of non end zone kickoffs.

San Francisco is ten percent. That's yeah, Kansas City's high. They're more likely to get a touch.

Back to say, touch back at the five yard at the five yard line, That's what I'm saying.

Okay, either way, here's how I read it. That the minus three sixty on the yes was way overpriced, and that the plus two sixty five was not way over rice.

I still like your bet, Gilly, Yeah, I do like your bet. I'm just I'm just saying what he He's basically saying that if Moody kicks a short one.

I know what. I know what he's saying. But that wasn't what he called first time. He misspoke. I think I said it right. I don't know. No, you okay, God damn it, Todd October nineteenth, it's not superior to June fourth. I have news for you. I'm no June fourth is superior at all. Uh. The last one I bet was use check over a half a yard rushing at plus two seventy. Tell me I shouldn't have bet that. How is that plus two seventy?

Yeah, I mean how.

It carries?

How what percentage of games does he get to carry?

I need one carry, right right?

So I mean he does.

He doesn't get to carry most games.

But if they're in a goal to go situation, if within the five line, it's plus plus two seventy right right, I'll give you that.

Where does he get his car because he had all year?

I can't answer that question off the top of my head. Well it, but watch watch the Niners postseasons. In every postseason since the in the Kyle Shanahan years.

And it carries carries.

It is a large volume. Now do the postseason different games?

Roofs now?

Do the postseasons?

Why didn't tab week? If let's see it?

Is it in six different games? Because that helps Gilly?

Right, it does. I'm gonna look and see.

Do the postseasons.

It's in.

No, it's in four games in the postseason. He had one carry in Week twenty one this year. Let's see last year in the postseason he had let's see carrie. Week twenty eighteen was still regular season at that point. Yeah, carry and we twenty last the postseason before that two in Week twenty one and Week twenty one they made the playoffs. In twenty twenty they made the Super Bowl. Right, Yeah, no carries in the postseason that year.

In what twenty twenty? Yeah he didn't be He didn't that year.

Yeah, yeah, I wonder chance here is probably here?

Here is the point of that bed carry one carry.

You're and three of those six carries were inside the opponent's ten.

You're right, plus two seven carries, Billy, if they won, if they get the ball first and goal they did last week, right, or the week before whatever?

What did he get stuffed for a loss?

No, it's true, right if it's first and goal with the one like you know what, I'm really You're not a guarantee there.

What I'm really worried about is that he gets two carries and the first one goes for two yards and the second one goes for minus two. That's what I'm really worrying about.

And the juice sick he's going wide?

Why is he going sick? And tired of the pushback? June fourth better than October nineteenth, ten days a week, all right, those are all mine. I want.

I want to see Gil's faith if he runs it right into the line and they could give him a yard, but they might not give.

Him a yard.

And Jill's ask it for like.

A measure for like a second.

It's so funny the yards, the rounding of the yards.

It is interesting that use check props are not widely available.

By the way, By the way, last super Bowl, last year's Super Bowl, I remember there was a oh it was that first rush the Jalen Hurts touchdown from the one It was from the was it from the one yard line?

It was close?

I remember either they a touchdown, they overturned it and then Hurts got it right something like that.

Yeah, but it was I think there was one that was I was like, isn't that from it was either I don't remember if I wanted to be the one or the two, but I remember I was like, it's not the one that you know, it's closer to the number they didn't use.

You know, what's a one yard touchdown versus the two yard touchdown? Right? If it's the yard and half, you know, one and half yard line.

Here's one that's interesting.

I didn't bet it.

But why is Elijah Mitchell's number solo? I haven't studied it so low three and a half, three and a half.

I mean, have you have you looked at the snap counts to McCaffrey during like the postseason, Like he's played every single snap except when he bumped his head, So I think that I think clearly they were saving McCaffrey. So if McCaffrey, McCaffrey's not playing, the only reason he's going out of the game at this point is if he asks out.

I think I think so though, but he could get satigued.

If Mitchell doesn't get a snap don't you get a push because it's no action.

This is true.

If you get to rush, you're in good shape.

My guess is Mitchell I can look at this is playing special teams though.

Okay, So if he goes on the field but doesn't record a statistic, then he counts as up, then it is actually no.

Okay, So it looks like the the let's see week twenty he had once he had two percent of the offensive snaps. McCaffrey had ninety eight percent. Is this just offensive snaps? I'm looking at it might just be offensive snaps. So, but but I mean, right, if he goes on the field, like I think the special teams thing is something you have to watch out for.

There, I think.

More points Moody, what do you think about that? Minus one ten but more points than Moody. I feel like Andy has more confidence in Butcker and more chances to get field goals.

But maybe I kick, I have, Ay, both kicked, I have, I have I have Kansas City a little bit higher in terms of fieldal projection than than San Francisco. But I don't think it's enough to overcome minus one ten. I think they're I mean, it's pretty col close and especially given the spread of minus too, I have San Francisco, like if I believe the market, which I don't know if I'm supposed to or not. After like my head is spinning after this conversation we've had, you know, so I do have San Francisco projects slightly higher on touchdowns given the where the spread is. So you know, you get one point when you kick the extra point popularly if you make it.

I hope you check runs for forty four yards and I and I get and I get forty four times? Oh is that not how that works? Is this is just you remember at the old Rufus Jeff hypothetical book that you'd have the super uh the supersizing of bets. Remember that there is the points bet model, but it was like if if I hit if Kyle you check ran for forty four yards, I get forty four times. Yeah, yeah, the whole.

Thing actually actually yeah, spread betting, Yeah they have that, they had that.

What was that site in the UK they had for a long time.

No, there's one in the UK too, Yeah, that we used to bet out back like fourteen years ago.

So you have no no propt to share, no specific profity here but I.

Bet, yeah, I bet some.

Okay, I want I'm gonna go against you guys a little bit and say, this isn't a huge edge. But I took Purty plus seventeen and a half rushing yards against Mahomes. Actually I'm not sure I took it yet, but I wrote it down. Okay, it's a bet.

Wait wait, Prety plus seventeen and a half rushing yards.

That just it's it's a it's a comparison problem.

Right, you're just looking at what the what the totals are set for both guys.

Yeah, but you have to remember the means and medians are going to be different, like so Mahomes. I mean, especially with most of it coming from scrambles, it's going to be coming in bit you know, and spurts.

You understand coming in spurts.

Todd, Yes, everyone knows. Everyone knows about coming in spurts.

Jesus, what are you guys? Twelve?

I like, yes, yeah, that's true.

I'm actually reading from it here.

But Valdez Scantling I under ten and a half first reception. I know he's had some deep balls. He also had some underneath ones.

I like it.

This was I think this was the Westgate where you don't know, no reception equals under. I mean, honestly, most of the things I wrote down here, like first and longest reception stuff, because that's like all I really bet. I mean, what I'm really going to be betting is going to be like McCaffrey unders, probably Kelsey unders probably once. I'm going to be waiting until it's close to game time, although I'll probably be having to bet Saturday night and Sunday morning too, just because it takes a lot of time to get to get a lot of money down.

What percentage are you unders versus overs a typical Super.

Bowl ninety ten? Probably?

But yeah, although over is like over an over for first reception for a guy like Brandon Aiyuk, which I did bet. That's something I bet, although that price isn't available anymore, Like that's an over, but it's also it's not an over where I'm I have the same sort of exposure to injury right.

Like like betting a game over.

I mean the whole the whole idea of player injury helping unders like that that's a big thing. I mean, what are the chances mcaffreck gets hurt nine to ten percent probably given an historic historically, like you have to factor that in. You know, what are the chances debo gets What are the chances Debo gets hurt? Like fifteen percent? Like we should both gets hurt all the freaking time. And the way he plays, Like, yeah.

I should have mentioned off the top. But the reason you're having all this money still not bet yet is because you're waiting to play unders primarily.

Yeah, I'm waiting. I think a lot of things are going to get better.

Yeah, just especially in Las Vegas, given the fact that the super Bowl's out here, you have you know, you normally have a big influx of tourists here to watch the super Bowl. Now it's kind of on steroids, and so I imagine we're going to get more public money having an outsize impact on these lines. So we will see these lines creep up and up and up. We're going to see you know, I wonder where, like where where do you think mccafrey Rushing Yards is going to close? It was I think it opened around like eighty eight and a half to ninety two and a half ish.

Jez, you know, is it going to get two hundred? Can't it can?

Two years ago I bet Cooper Cup under one hundred and twelve and a half receiving yards.

He won the MVP that year despite going under.

Wait, you think McCaffrey will go up eight more yards between now and game time?

Oh, I would be disappointed if he didn't.

Really.

Yeah, wow, I think there's a very good chance. I think I might be able to see McCaffrey. You might see.

Yeah, what about checks to forty four yards?

Well, we'll see the impact of this podcast use McCaffrey. McCaffrey has been benched for use check that they found their new running back.

Harvard's Kyle us check is should be pointed out.

So I do think these I do think these numbers will will rise. I mean I was able to bet last week at CIRCA or whatever it was two weeks ago the Conference championship no McCaffrey rushing touchdown at like plus two point fifty, and then also no McCaffrey like McCaffrey under one and a half touchdowns at minus one ninety. Both of those bets lost, but I thought they were both really like good prices, and I anticipate being able to get better prices next weekend.

Or this coming weekend.

Anything else.

Let's see you have.

That fourth down. Anybody will make a fourth down? What do you think about it?

I have numbers on that. I didn't see any value I have it. I mean, I do think someone will make a fourth down. I agree that both of these coaches, despite being like very good schematically, are very suboptimally conservative on fourth downs.

But I think I have hold on, I have a list. I have all these things that integrate.

Here's why to search for.

This is great radio here, this is why.

Todd doesn't have a podcast or I know he thinks it's his show, but he has no sense of time, so he has no fundamental filter of sending you down a totally different rabbit hole. So that will be here for another thirty minutes. Well, it does not get it.

Will there be a fourth down? I make the yes. I make the yes minus three eighteen. I think one interesting thing to remember in general, I'll say it matters for fourth down, but in general, when you're thinking about the game, when you like sort of search and say, oh, you know, these teams have only attempted one two point conversion this year, right, Well, think about the game scripts they've been playing from during the season. They both made the Super Bowl, they both won a lot of games. They've both been playing from ahead. Yeah, when you're playing from ahead, you don't go for fourth down as much because you have sort of the fourth and ones, right, you have the fourth and one analytics plays, and then you have the desperation fourth downs when you're down and you have to go for fourth down. So they haven't really had as many of those. And so, uh, I think that is worth considering in terms of the fact that you will have a team playing from a negative game script here. And so that's why I think it's probably much more likely that you get a fourth down than their base rates than the offensive base rates this season.

So smart, that's the thing with a two point conversion exactly, And if it is fourth down, you got to give it to used. Checks canem the ball later, they can break it for Wait, no, what if you use check.

What's gonna happen is Used's gonna get his carry on a two point conversion attempt and it's not gonna count.

It's not gonna count.

I'm gonna love that.

That's exactly what's gonna happen that, or that you'll get too carries again to and lose too. It's so screwed by the way plus two seventy over a half a yard. I don't see how you can bet that anything else because everybody's waiting for the usher ushers discussion. User.

You know, I actually took something on Juwan Jennings for uh.

I don't want to say I like Jowan Jennings overs, but I certainly well I think I did.

I haven't bet much many of them yet.

Clearly I have like two bets on Jowan Jennings at this point, but I think it was first reception or longest reception or something like that.

But Juwan Jennings is someone that stands to benefit from an injury rather than be hurt by an injury.

Not to himself, but it's much more likely if Deebo gets hurt, if I gets hurt, he's going to see more playing time. And so I think I don't know if that clearly that's it's not likely that one of those guys gets hurt, but you have to consider you have to consider that possibility. And so when I sort of run these simulations, I actually do factor it. Like I have a thing that says, what's the probability that that one of these guys gets injured, what's his projection if that happens? And so you know, if I simulate an injury happening midway through the game, you know Juwan Jennings's projection for the second half at that point is going to go up.

I think this is just for anybody listening, this is so fascinating because it shows the different ways that you think of things, not just what you just described aout Juwan Jennings with an injury simulation to someone else, but also what you just derived before about how these both teams are used to being ahead in games. Obviously one will not be here. And so if you're again getting back to the if Rufus is your north star to emulate, these are all how long? How many years did it take you to happen upon all of these different things. You didn't come out of the womb thinking all these things, right, like how many years?

Injury stuff is more recent? I think trying to quantify that.

I see, Okay, I think it.

Matters more now with all the alternate type props available now and outside of Nevada especially, you know, they offer all these tail event props and I think those I think that's where the injury stuff really does matter.

So interesting. Okay, so how are you deploying.

It for either guy? The injury rate on an end game, the injury rate goes up substantially. If so, you know if what happens if left a I take a quarterback over attempts of him getting injured happens way more often than he would if I didn't have the bet. Somehow somebody tells that, they wire it down to the sideline, They go, Stafford, get him out of the game. He's gonna go over Todd.

Will you will you tell me who you bet over on? Just so I can thank you. I got to put that in my model.

You know what, The real thing to know from Todd is whatever w NBA bet he makes, it is a He is like a I think a documented oh and fifty eight run right now currently.

I was, I was doing really well on w NBA early last year, and so I got like cocky and I thought, oh, well, I have this figured out. And then I just those ladies just took me to the cleaners, and he's.

And he's really sympathetic to them when they do like he's rehandled it.

Any misogynistic terms handles, take it in stride. I'm very very calm about it. I don't yell and scream. It's it's very nice.

Anything elsewhere, I'm I'm I love it here in all this.

You know, I again, I haven't really mahomes under four and a half rushes at even money or better took again, he's not like. That's if you think the Chiefs are going to win the game though, That's see, that's correlated with the Chiefs losing the game a little bit. Because quarter back to wheel downs. The kneel downs count as rushing attempts.

That's the thing, right, that's the tricky one.

And if the kneel downs come, they come in spurts.

Sorry, but butof is the typical kneel down is only a minus three not amount.

It's a minus one normally. But this is a rushing attempt prop.

No, No, but I'm asking you, in a typical a kneel down, isn't it three kneel downs for minus one minus one minus one?

Yeah?

But you might you might, right, you might have two nil downs though, if like you know, you get the first down and there's a minute and five seconds last.

Right, But I'm saying Oh, I see what you're saying.

So you don't know how many. Yeah, it's always exactly three.

Right. The reason that that happened with the Chiefs that one year is because there was a little bit more time left and so he was trying to he was trying to kill out the time and that's why he was running backward. Which was such a weird scenario. Was that that almost I bet you that's how it happened.

Was that the Niner Super Bowl? It was No, that was rare.

That's rare, Yeah, I was, But it makes it makes more sense than actually running than running a play into the line and risking a fumble like I remember.

Like last night watching like one of them was like seven yards, wasn't it like and he just.

Held the ball.

Yeah, but like it's I mean, I think it made sense for the Chiefs to do that rather than risk a fumble.

Like yeah, the end zone, yeah, I think it was Neil, Neil Neil, and then there was fourth down, there was still some time on the clock. Yeah, he just threw it up for grabs.

By the way, do you all think the end zone?

Do you all remember that Super Bowl when Tom Brady had the safety on the intentional grounding when he threw the ball fifty yards downfield, down the middle of the field for the first score that was the Giants, what twenty twelve Super Bowl something like that. Yeah, have you ever seen an intentional grounding? I threw down the mid like middle like that.

Before there was a there was a few weird ones this year where Gino. I remember that Gino had one where it was it wasn't an intentional grounding, it was just he misread like him in the in the wide receiver had a miscommunication, so Gino ends up throwing it to nowhere when he just thought the wide receiver was going to break, and they called an intentional ground name.

They started doing it more this year.

Yeah, Aaron Shotts calls it accidental grounding.

With accidental grounding, yeah.

I mean, how do you how do you read somebody's intentions?

That's exactly right.

Well, I mean, but I'll tell you, you know, you know, it's like the official score for NBA on assists.

Right or like a very subjective, very subjective.

That's all right.

I don't know if intentional is in the definition, And I just think it's if you're under pressure and you throw it or no receivers in the area and then they then they throw the flag. I don't know if intentions factored into it.

Well, why is it called I wonder, I wonder. I'm not open up the rule book here?

Is it?

Is it called intentional grounding? Or we just we just yeah, I mean it is technic.

Yes, know whether or not this is a psyop for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl and then have a Travis Kelsey and what's your name get married at halftime and tell and say that Biden you should vote for Biden. I because the the yes on that is is bus one sixty. There's a lot of value for.

I mean, Todd. It either either happens or a dozen. So it's got to be fifty to fifty.

Yeah, I mean, but what have you seen in previous games? How many sy ops have you seen in previous NFL games?

That's what I'm saying.

You know, I've either Todd I have either seen them or I haven't. That's all I can tell you.

All Right, So we have to we have to do this before we leave, because we've had a bit of a cottage industry on this podcast, nailing halftimes. Whether it was Bruno Mars back in the day with the Pompadoor, or whether it was Katie Perry's first song, you name it. Usher, Usher gonna do the halftime show, and uh, a lot of speculation as to what the first song is gonna be. I've talked about it on a numbers game and I thought because he said he is gonna be a real R and B thing. By the way, did they take it down? Will just now as we were doing this podcast, who is.

That the place that offers ten dollars limits?

Yeah? I think they took it down. Yeah, I mean I don't feel.

It's not a real part.

So a neiguil will not be the first song anyway, they as we're doing this podcast, I don't see it anymore. And earlier on the radio side, they had locked out one option, which is real great bookmaker conduct, isn't it when they lock out one option and then just take free money on everything else? What we have figured out So usually we do this by setlists, and Usher starts all of his concerts with this song called My Way. If you're an Usher fan or an R and B fan, you're familiar with Usher's My Way. It's not exactly a typical song that one would start their halftime show with. In his case, you'd probably started with more of a banger like OMG or yeah. For those again who know Usher and R and B. Probably not the DM stuff, but probably one of those two. But it looks like it is actually going to if you're reading the tea leaves on this stuff. Caught Up was the favorite, but my Way got locked out. They put it up for a little while longer with My Way at even money. And now as we're doing this podcast, will I don't see it at all anymore. Where is this skilly at a little offshore place called wager on the internet?

Oh, where they take ten dollars max.

Yeah, where it's like a ten dollars maxment. Anyway, So anyway people want to know.

I like to do endgame on Usher because then you you can get a feel for like which song he's gonna do based on how he's dancing, you know, and then you can fiigure it out.

What's great is that us check will run across the stage while he's performing. He's going to gain so many yards. Okay, so we don't really have any Usher intel intel other than it I think it's probably my way right. If we're reading the team, I.

Think Brian Windhorse where he's got the two fingers pouring it up.

Why would they do that?

Why would they exit out? Why would they do that?

Why would they do it? Yeah? Okay, rufus always interesting, man.

Always interesting. I think I agree making care.

And what's what's what's I think what's most notable is that I know you have so much evidence to support your props that whether they win or lose, I get it right, Like I can't. I can't push back on what you're doing because I know you have it like absolutely uh keenly researched by the numbers, and so that's uh, that's unassailable.

Well, not as much this year as previous years. It feels like I'm a little behind. You'll get there, there, you'll can shut get there.

Yeah, Billy, remember he's ninety ten to the under. So what's the big what's the big headline from this whole thing? You don't even have to have all the modeling. Just spray at the the unders and you'll probably win, you know, sixty percent of what what what win?

I mean I'll say this though, I mean prop prices are it's it's certainly much more efficient now than it used to be. Back in the day, you could just basically blindly spray the unders.

And you would better Early. You would go to the west gate, you'd wait in line, you'd make your max bets, you'd go to the back of the line, you'd bet it going, and you'd do that for however long it.

Took, till they till they closed up shop, till they.

Close up shop, and now it's way and then bet.

I mean, but there's also some strategy there too, because you knew other places copied so ah, yes, got you.

Thus you were trying to bet under. So you were probably waiting till the end anyways because you wanted them to get all bit up right.

Well, we were betting, We were betting stuff where there was it was pretty mispriced.

Typically in those days, it wasn't on your fest.

Yeah, Like you know, when when you can bet I've said this, I feel like way too many times. But when you can bet no roughing the passer at minus one fifteen, like I think everybody knows, you don't need a good model for that.

You imagine that was the price no roughing the passer was minus.

That's what the win opened. Every single year, they kept doing it. They kept doing it. They they clearly didn't take years, so clearly they.

Didn't take notes for plus fifty.

What'd you say, Todd, I.

Said, four years ago, I got used check over a half yard plus four fifty.

Oh, that joke has gotten steal.

I don't know about use check.

I think I think I killed it with a running across the stage thing. Okay, Rufe is unabated to give the elevator's speech for utobated.

Unabated is an odd screen that provides and well, it's an odd screen, but it's so much more than an odd screen.

Goal.

It's also.

We also provide educational content, a lot of Captain Jack does a lot of great stuff there and community a discord. But I would say the primary thing is an odd screen that has a lot of bells and whistles that allows you to to trade better. I use it literally every single day when I'm looking at college basketball stuff or what primarily for what I want to know. I want to know what the best price is out there. If I like a team like, for example, Iowa State, I think I had a money line bet on them yesterday. I made the price like plus two minus one o eight and and I wanted to know what the moneyline conversion was to that, And it turns out it's plus one thirteen, And I was able to get a plus one eighteen. Not a big edge, but still, you know, still whereas I wouldn't have had an edge on the side. So it allows you to in essence, compare different markets, and yeah, there's there's trading tools that really enable you to get the best price. And I find I find value in it personally, guilt Like, this is all stuff that I've I had kind of built stuff like this myself before for betting, and so these tools are useful.

It's as we're we're not giving picks or anything like that.

We're doing is saying like giving you tools to get the most out of your betting.

As your hand guy, as proud of the in game lines.

Yeah, we have an in game tool. Actually did you know that, Todd? Yeah?

I did.

Oh, we do.

Yeah.

You can literally input game state and stuff like that during the game, and it'll give you the alternate line pricing so you can see like, oh, how much is this half point worth for a college basketball or an NFL game?

Oh, that's interesting, but it won't show you what the what the line is from different places as well, the games go.

Oh yeah, it'll do that too. Oh wow, that's an odd screen.

Tod as proud of that as you are of anything you've ever done. Un abated.

Definitely, what's he gonna say?

Of course, No, he is. And Captain Jack is the Commissioner of Sports Betting. That is the title I have he stowed upon him, and I really think he does a great job. By the way, you're part of the Captain Jack Big Superstream Saturday Night or whatever it is that he does annually.

I don't know.

I'm not sure.

I haven't been invited yet.

Yes you have, Yes, you have. My audio will and your perennially suck. So I'm looking forward that guys, great season of the Megapod. I cannot thank you enough Todd for his innumerable interruptions. It's part of your charm. We love you still.

October nineteenth.

October nineteenth, the Great Todd wish Neev from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, PA. Thank you, Toddy, now you say you're welcome, Thank you God damn it. And then Will Hill everybody first, year on the Megapod. Let's do another one next year. And by the way, and next time I talk to you guys will be for the March Madness Pod. Rufus thank you, Thank you, sir as always a pleasure.

Thank you.

We'll try to get you onto a media row if we can so you can meet people. Yeah, the great Rufus tre movie at Rufus Peabody on Twitter, not only with un abated Massy Peabody, and of course the Bet the Process podcast which he does with jeff Ma Tiberan's Jeff Ma. Yeah, you want to promote your notebook at him?

Okay, all right, thank you, there's not a lot to promote.

Hey, thank you, thank all for listening. Thanks for another spectacular year of the megapod. Next podcast is probably going to be for Indian Wells Tennis's quote unquote fifth Major. I'll do it with Drew Denzick. Thank you for listening. Good luck with all your bets. Super Bowl fitty eight