Beating The Book: 2024 Week 12 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview

Published Nov 21, 2024, 8:02 PM

Gill Alexander, Todd Wishnev (VSiN Contributor), Will Hill (VSiN Contributor), and Aaron Schatz (FTN Chief Analytics Officer), break down all of the Week 12 NFL betting action! The quartet gives you their best bets of the week, best teaser options, which big favorite is most likely to lose outright, and the game they want no part of.

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Thursday Morning, November twenty first, twenty twenty four, and is the Beating the Book podcast Megapod Megapod for week twelve in the National What All League, It's Gill Alexander.

Thank you for listening. I am now back to being only a half game behind Todd. The inevitable is about to We all know it, we all feel it. Todd chief among those people feel Todd Wishnev from his mom's cork attic at Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, joined us as always, how you doing, Totty.

I don't feel it.

At t wish Nev on Twitter, He's busy. Let me just say this, let me just point this out. Todd is mainly concerned with betting in game college basketball. Right now, we'll try to see if we can get some of his attentions. He is the star of a Showtimes docuseries Action one of the stars looking for another documentary to be it.

I think that's what he's acting.

And then Will Hill at not the Will Hill, by the way, Todd is at tea wish New I say that Will Hill at not V. Will Hill the host of the Should Have bet More podcasts three times a week, available where all your podcasts are distributed. Will also part of Chris Filica's Bare Best podcast at Fox Sports. You don't Willie, What's going on?

Yeah, we're we're trying not to get too much out of Todd with this podcast because he's been cooking pretty much in college basket. It's almost like you guys ever watched Breaking Bad when they're trying to get Walter White to cook. We just need to like get him in his environment, let him do his thing, just kind.

Of let the genius work. Till last night when I couldn't pick one single game if my have my life depended on it, I was horrible, But we did get the winner. This morning with James Madison a U.

I see, wait a minute, what do you mean we got the winner? We got destroyed in that. What are you talking about?

We won? What are you talking about?

Madison's first half under pre flop.

And the game and he won.

I played over end game.

Oh that was a Willie pick. You know what I did? Todd on air on a Numbers game. I said it was a U pick.

You apologize for that. I will, okay.

I aggregated it from like these first half unders in early game.

So I'm gonna I'm gonna pull a f aggregation card.

Uh our guest, our rotating guest on the show today. He has made this an annual uh mitzvah of his on the show to come on the Megapod. He joins me on a Numbers game every quarter. He's kind enough to do that. We have done this podcast for over a decade. We have done this, but we haven't done the megapod for over a decade. He is correct about that. We've only done the megapod for about three years. I think this is the third. It is the great Aaron Shots. He is the creator of DVOA, the most granular play by play NFL statistic You can find, which has analyzed every single National Football League play all the way back dating to nineteen hundred and seventy nine. Defense value over adjusted. Aaron joins us now he works at FTN Sports. How you doing, Aaron?

Know nothing about college basketball? I know nothing nothing about college basketball.

Todd said, do you have any opinions on Drake? And you were like, Drake may No, Drake from where is Drake? Indiana?

My brother from Toronto.

That's right, he's one of our our miss bucher from Toronto, Toronto. Yeah, that's right. Drake had a bar mitzvatad. Did you know that Drake hena bar mitsvatad? Were you aware of this?

God? Who did?

God is never mind? Okay, by the way, Erin, I just want to before we get into the show here, I just want to say I'm always fascinated by these things through ten weeks of the NFL season, because obviously there's buys in Baldo. I know we're in week twelve, but through ten games, let me be clear, games ten games of the NFL season. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe I saw this that in your historical through ten games DBA numbers, you famously have the two thousand and seven Patriots one, the nineteen ninety one Washington Redskins number two, and the twenty twenty four Lions number three.

Is this correct?

It's remarkable? But yeah, despite those couple of games where the opponent had more yards than them on an efficiency basis, they've just been ridiculous this year. Number two in offense, number two in defense, and number one one in special teams. My numbers love the Lions this year.

And I always ask you this as a follow up to these kinds of questions. Removing Aaron Shots the analytics guy and talking to Aaron Shots the football viewer. Now, does it sort of check out for you with the eye test?

Yeah, I mean they're doing everything well. What doesn't check out is you keep waiting for the game we're not having Hutchinson really hurts, right, we keep waiting for the opponent where it really matters that Hutchinson is not healthy. But I don't know when it's coming.

Yeah, I wonder, I wonder you're.

Also hurt now, right? Gilly, isn't the middle Anzeloni or somebody isn't he Aloney's.

Out for a few weeks.

Also, Yeah, yeah, I just wonder like Will is wearing his Vikings purple today. The Vikings are one game behind them, as are in the in the division, as are the Eagles in the conference. And I just wonder, like, okay, third greatest of all time, and yet they still might not get the number one seed, right, still might not? And then then this looing specter of Jared Goff on the road in January, is that in the back of your mind still doesn't doesn't.

The specter, the flip spector is Jared Goff in New Orleans in February. Indoors baby, Oh, good point, good point?

All right, Before we get to our best bets, we always start with by the way I love I love historical DVOA. And if you're looking for.

Point out, by the way I bet I put this morning, I actually put my down this morning. I put down on the Eagles plus four hundred to lose the NFC Championship game.

That's a fun one.

Where is that it was on DraftKings. Oh, I like that with the il the Lions are the best team in the conference, but the Eagles are the second best team.

I mentioned on the Bear Pod that I've seen these in the past, but I haven't seen them once the season started, like conference title game exactly as where we have to pick both teams. I know it's square at Chalky and it's the NFL, anything can happen. I have a hard time seeing past an Eagles Lions NFC title game obviously.

Yeah, I mean there's like all kinds of possibilities, but to me, that seemed like a good a good bet.

At this point I started, I started putting together super Bowl matchups. Again, not exactly, it's just teams to meet in the Super Bowl. My first two bets are Lions are are are Chalky Lions Chiefs six to one, Lions Ravens nine to one. Yeah, no, I'm right there with you, man, right there with you. Before we get into the best bets, mister wishnev Our records on the season, sir as. The courts stenographer of the podcast.

Are Gilly and Willy had good weeks last week, Gilly going two and one one. The only mistake was his little commanders taking what they call the proverbial deuce in the pants in the fourth quarter and blowing the plus four, and so he went two and one. He goes to seventeen fifteen and one with a nice little comeback there, and his teaser lost again. Somehow he is now two eight and one when Kansas City, well, actually both sides lost, but that Kansas City Josh Allen nonsense. So Willy had an outstanding week. And if you guys remember when I told you that when Willy was down, he's probably gonna have a nice little comeback run, and he is having that comeback run with a three and ozh not even close. Had the Eagles on that the Ravens under easy in the Denver easy. Unfortunately, he took another teaser loss when Josh Allen rolled to the right on fourth and two. Even though Gil Alexander always predicts on our text that Josh Allen on fourth and two will run the ball, somehow, some way, Steve Spagnola doesn't know that maybe Josh Allen may tuck the ball and run. And he's still running today for a nine point teaser blessed up. So you guys, did you did you catch?

Did you catch? The Jim Nance? Right after that play goes the best NFL the greatest NFL play of the season, and out loud alone in my apartment, I go, really, Jim, the best and he then immediately responds on air, he goes, what I mean by that is he qualifies it.

It's so great, all right, now now you do so? Willie goes fifth, goes to fifteen seventeen and one, an excellent comeback. He's three six and two on his teezers. I unfortunately went one and two when the Texans back doored me on the on that total. So I am now eighteen and fifteen, so things are tightening up. I won my teaser again, so I have made a full recovery on teasers to six and five. The guests Brent Musberger went two and one, and that moves the guest to sixteen sixteen and one, and their teasers are also six and five. So that's where we are as we start the week. Billy and Willy breathing.

You're you're eighteen and fifteen? What am I?

You're seventeen fifteen and one a half game back? And Willy is fifteen seventeen and one not two four backs?

All right?

Okay, did hardly get home? Did that?

Did we count that?

Or no?

The touchdown parlay of the Frank did break the touchdown.

Partly that he gave up. Yeah, we didn't count that. Okay, what is it?

What is the guest chair? What's the record for the guest chair?

The guest chair is now sixteen, sixteen and one and six and five. Onto this one we are, and I'd like to ask Aaron about I'd like to ask Aaron Shotts about my dummy of the week. And it's going to be a guy you might have heard of name Jane Campbell. I go on commercials and I say you should eat Applebee's wing endlessly. And you know what, I am the best at making speeches in the locker room afterwards. Now here's my question, Aaron. If Willie Hill gives you under twenty nine and under twenty eight and a half attempts for Jared goff right, and you look at the game log and you see every time they win big, he doesn't throw the ball a lot. So you tell will Hill. You say, will that's a great bet. I'm going to bet that under twenty eight and a half attempts. So you do bet the under twenty eight and a half temps. Now you're watching a National Football League game, and Aaron, you watch a lot of National Football League games. Have you ever seen a football team at thirty five to six throwing on first down. Now I ask you another question. Have you ever seen a team up forty two to six in the fourth fink quarter throwing the ball first down the game England? Right, okay, but still forty two to six and they're throwing the ball in the fourth quarter. Now here's why I make Dan Gamble the Dumbo of the week. What if Jared Goff on one of those throws gets his head torn off and he's out for the season and I was rooting for I never root for injuries because I'm a good person, But on this case, I rooted for an injury because those people are assholes. Why are you throwing the ball up forty two to six?

And you led him answer the question, and you let him answer.

You can remember the two thousand and seven Patriots.

Wait, I want to tell him before he answers that we lost because twenty nine throws instead of twenty eight and a half attempts under Now, please answer.

Remember the two thousand and seven Patriots. Yes, this is not the first team that threw the ball with big leads in the fourth quarter. And this is not the first team where fans looked at the TV and went, why are you not pulling the quarterback to make sure he doesn't get injured? It happens more.

Than you think. Six, Aaron forty two six.

Do you remember the two thousand and seven Patriots to go back to.

Look at it right now because you said it, I'm going to go look and see if they was throwing them.

From fans of other teams constantly complaining, why are the Patriots passed in the fourth quarter?

Why is right after the flight they were trying to run up the score?

Yeah?

Was that the year, hold on, let's someone you. Was that the year that Joe Gibbs two point zero got crushed by Belichick And in a similar type of score, Belichick just kept pouring on points. And as a Washington Skins fan, as a Washington Skins van, we were unbelievably offended that Bill Belichick, supposed historian of the game, would do this to a coach of whose jockstrap Bill Belichick could never hold.

Sorry because I know they played the Cowboys that year, so they probably played Washington too.

Yeah, they ran it up. I'm looking at the box score. It was only fifty two to seven.

By a way, will I will stand by that I know you that's hard if you if you gave Joe Jackson Gibbs, Tom Brady, he would have won. Let me do the math. Twenty seven Super but.

Brady threw one touchdown pass their first Super Bowl run. Brady won the final Super Bowl, like thirteen to three. Brady wants Belichick won Super Bowls with the Giants. I don't think it's fair to just because we dide guilty of it too, Like all he did was half.

All he did was have Drew.

Brees, and you know he's not a good coach. He's turned out to be a good coach. I don't think it's fair.

Joe Gibbs the greatest of all time. I will die on this.

What about Barry Lamar Bonds not.

As good a coach? Okay, I will give another just because we have another candidate besides Dan Campbell, because it is tough to give someone dumb over the week in a fifty two to six game. What do we feel about the great Matt Eberflus, who sort of lotly gagged that last drive for the Bears against the Packers. All the Bears need was a field goal to win. Caleb Williams had a great game at a great final drive for it down conversion to a dunze than another one to a dunzae. They matriculate the ball down the field. They end up with a lengthy forty almost fifty, but it was less than fifty yard field goal, about forty seven yard I believe it was. But they had an extra thirty seconds or so to run an additional play. They chose not to, and after the game Eberflus was like, yeah, we were good. I think it's an exact quote. We know what happens. Cairo Santos gets his field goal blocked. That's not to say that he wouldn't have gotten it blocked from twenty seven. Maybe he would have. Do we have a problem with that? Who's the worst Dumbo of the week? Campbell for doing what he did or Eberflus for just saying I will settle it.

I would go with Eberflus because this is a problem that a lot of coaches in the NFL have, is this belief that field goal range is some kind of binary where when you pass a certain yard line, now you're in field goal range. That's it. We're done, Like, that's not how it works.

It's such a good point too, because remember earlier in the year and this is not this is an armchair quarterback because I said it at the time the Chiefs won a game. I want to say it was against.

The Chargers against the Bengals.

Was the Bengals where Andy Reid was just like, yeah, Harrison, butker fifty one yards, it's fine, we'll win. And he kicked it and he made it and they won and nobody said a word. And I'm like, wow, have we gotten to the point where we're just like nonchalantly kicking fifty one yarders to win a game? And we were at the beginning of the season because nobody was missing, and then all of a sudden yesterday it's like the field goal button got turned off and no one was making anything. There was that one sequence where Hopkins missed two chip shots at the same time Joshua Cardi missed a chip shot when same chip shots like shorter than thirty yards twenty.

Four or something.

Card Yeah, yeah, that was amazing, both of them. Incredible. So you would vote forever flu So I think Todd is going to stand on the Dan camp both of the weekend.

Well here's why I'm going to because I just pulled up an NFL reference and I went back to a game where the Patriots won fifty six to ten in two thousand and six. In two thousand and seven, which is a similar to scenario. And guess who was in the game in the fourth quarter Matt Castle handing off to Heath Evans, not Thomas Brady. Sure, late third quarter, who was still in but not Thomas Brady. It was a guy named Matt Castle who was in the game in fifty six.

You know they did so, Brian Hendon Hooker, Yes, they did bring that.

Finally, finally after when they got the ball back with like five minutes left in the game. I'm saying that the starting quarterback you should not.

Be Campbell does not know what the over under on Jared goff passes.

I didn't say he was parent I say. I did not say he knows. I just said he's an asshole, That's all. I didn't say he knows.

Todd, you asked Aaron the question, he gave you a very correct historical answer, and you're just you choose to you know.

No, all I'm saying is I'm looking at a reference and it shows that that Tom Brady was out of the game in the fourth quarter. That's all. But I allows point that they did one second up. Take his point that they did run it up, and I agree with him that they ran it up. But there's a difference between running it up and what Dan Campbell did forty two to six is beyond running it up. That's called like insanity.

Listen, I am I am old school when it comes to this stuff. And I will reference again the greatest coach of all time, the great Joe Jackson Gibbs, and I will say, listen, when they won the Super Bowl, excuse me. The year they lost the Super Bowl, I believe it was to the La Raiders when they were an absolute offensive juggernaut and they set the record for the most points until the ninety nine Vikings beat it with the first game of the season. I remember distinctly, right, they're beating the Lions, who they ended up beating in the NFC Championship, like forty one to nothing or something like that, and they're knocking on the doorstep, and what do they do. They just they kneel on it, right, because that's how you did it back in the day. You were you had class, and you allowed.

To even today, when you're up thirty one six. Even today the Arizona Cardinals were up thirty one six against the Jets the other day. They hand off not because they're they're trying not to run it up, just because they're trying not to get anyone injured and get to the next game.

But that's what I objected, like to Belichick, and I don't listen, Belichick's one of the all time greats. I'm obviously saying he's not. He's not not that, but you know that was he was the first one of the first people to be like, if you want to stop us, then you know I want us not to score, then stop us. And so this younger generation got into this whole thing like, yeah, that's what you do. And I'm just too old for that ship. I really am, Like, I'm just I get it, that's how it is now, but I'm I'm still not.

And my concern with the golf that even though I thought it was a good beat because they take the foot off the gas and you know they can have a big lead that probably can throw a lot, is that golf through the five picks the.

Week before, I know one was a hail Mary but that they were going to.

Try to get his confidence back and Patti stats and just keep throwing to make him feel good.

So that wasn't the back of my head the whole time.

Yeah, by the way, if.

Aaron is just to be fair, because I always liked to be fair and argue in a fair minded way as opposed to the way people argue nowadays. But it's the fifty two to nothing game where the Patriots beat a certain team named the Washington Gilly Redskins. It was thirty eight nothing in the fourth quarter and the Patriots actually had Tom Brady in and he did throw a couple of passes to get the forty five nothing and then they took him out. So Aaron is actually correct on one the one game. I didn't correct in the other game. But either way, it's still not right. It's just not right, all right.

Would you like to give an in game story before we go to the best bets?

Yes, yes, I'd like to give it a little quick little Grand would talk about that.

No.

I thought Steve had a great bet on Grand Canyon, and I ended up winning it, so I was lucky. But the Bears were playing the forty nine ers this past weekend. The score in the first half was very low because both teams were taking forty nine ers, were playing the Seattle, and the drives were very long drives, like seven to eight minute drives. In the first half, the score was very low. And a lot of times in those kind of games where the line is originally high and the score is very low in the first half, typically you see points in the second half. Well, that's kind of what to start it to happen. When finally the Niners took a thirteen to ten lead late in the third quarter, around three minutes to go at the end of the third quarter. At that point some of the books had thirty seven fourteen more points and then you could get thirty six and a half at minus one twenty nine. So at that point I said to myself, I think more touchdowns are coming in this game. Overtime is also maybe a possibility. I just feel like we've got points coming in this game, and so I bet. So the question was thirty seven or thirty six and a half in pay extra? I paid extra for the thirty six and a half, and I should have won easily. The Niners went down on another long drive, got a touchdown to go up seventeen thirteen. The Seattle went on a long drive, came down fourth and one. Now, please explain this to me. Gil When it's third and one and a half and you run Gino Smith on a quarterback keeper and he gets one point thirty five yards and now there's six inches to go on fourth down, you hand off to the guy so he can't get it on fourth down. I'll still never understand that they just got a yard and a half, almost just get another six inches. Anyways, they get stopped. Then somehow they stop the Niners, and of course Gino Smith goes on the run to infamy, the beautiful run forty yards down the sideline, then another thirty yards for the touchdown, and I end up winning because it ends twenty to seventeen. So I guess the point that I want to make here is in this kind of game where there's long drives and you don't want to play over thirty seven there because what's the point. You're just going to get a push. If you get the two touchdowns you need, you might as well pay the extra twenty five cents. A lot of people don't like paying minus one twenty nine minus one thirty five. They were like, they're scared of that extra number. Juice is worth paying for in that scenario, and it ended up working out for me.

The juice thing across sports is a great bit of advice for betters because there was the Mac game last night where I said, I jumped in the second quarter Toledo minus two and a half extra juice. They were at midfield. You cannot shy away from those moments, like pay the extra juice. There's the reason why there's juice there. Don't see you half away?

Yeah, it's like what you have to make a determination. Let's say you're paying minus one to fifty. You got to win this bet over sixty percent of the time, but very often it is a sixty percent bet, like in your case with your excellent Collin Toledo.

All right, Best Bets Week twelve and that ASHNAL Football League aarin. By the way, before you before you give your first best bet, a couple of things. One, you're following Brent Musburger no pressure whatsoever? Ay, do you believe Brent should be in the NFL Hall of Fame? Because I was going off on that last week in front of Brent he was very uncomfortable, and two tell everybody what they can get at FTN and where they find it.

Has uh they the he's never won the Broadcaster Award or whatever that they give.

I don't think so has it. Maybe he has, Maybe maybe he won't mention it if he. If he had, he's definitely the last guy to say that he has.

Oh Okay, I mean if he has.

They have the Ford Frick Award and they put the guys in the Hall of Fame. Might get confused with the different writer wings in the Hall of Fame because I was just at the baseball one, and you know they have this whole wing of like writers team.

I think there's a Broadcaster Award for football too, though, like I think Joe Buckle won.

It is Steve Sable in the NFL Hall of Fame, Like is that family? Yeah?

I think as a contributor, Oh, as.

A contributor, I just whatever the whatever the categorization is. Brent needs to be. He's eighty five years old.

FT and Fantasy. We have tons of good stuff. We have the stats Hub with all kinds of advanced charting statistics and DVOA for Advanced charting Statistics updated during the season. We have all of our daily fantasy optimizers. We have all of our picks in lots of sports. I only do NFL, but we do everything from women's basketball to golf and have good records in it. So folks should check out Ftnfantasy dot Com.

And I have guys friends of mine that still play fantasy. They swear by FDA. They really do.

Yeah, Jeff Radcliffe does great projections.

They that's the guy they love. They're like Jeff Radcliffe, nobody better. Okay, your first best bet of the week, sir, is.

Well, you left me on the Lions, but I'm going with the Lions. Lions minus seven and a half at Indianapolis. Right, Lions are one of the best teams of all time. By my numbers, Colts are twenty first, and that's slightly juiced by the Joe Flacco games. Right, Like, I feel like the Colts are not six and a half points better than the Jaguars. The Jaguars line last week was fourteen. I mean, maybe it's an a home and away thing, but I don't remember last week where that game was. But I just don't think seven and a half is high enough. So Lions minus seven and a half at Indianapolis.

The Lions are starting to feel like those teams we grew up on, whether it was a Niners team or the Giants or the Skins, those NFC, those NFC teams, also the Bears in eighty five, that just steamroll teams, and they do have that feel a little bit this year.

I'm hoping that Vikings.

And losing the end. Yeah, Toddy, what do you got first?

Were we talking to discuss the Thursday night game? We were just going to go right to the Oh.

I wish I have this podcast?

Sorry, Gilty, Sorry?

Does anybody there? They're supposed to be in clement weather tonight? In clement weather tonight in Cleveland. I forgot about that mix of rain and snow. I'm not a trends guy, but I feel like I'm not doing my job unless I give him here for this one, because Thursday Night trends abound. Steelers have never won a road Divisional Thursday Night football game. They're oh and seven all time, and oh and five under Mike Tomlin. Tomlin is two and eight on the road on Thursday Night football. The Browns six and oh straight up their last six Thursday Nights including two and overs. Is Tomlin I was saying earlier, I think this might be a field overprop kind of game where they throw him in the game for a lot of plays.

Yeah, I like you. I like the over on this until the snow. We start talking about the snow. I think if they dropped the over under last time, I thought it was thirty six, if they drop it a little bit more than that, I think I like the over despite the snow, because Winston hits there much better on offense than Watson was. Right now, Yeah, oh, I think, yeah, I think that the snow, I'd probably shy away.

Then if it is thirty seven, I will make this one of my picks.

Oh, thirty seven it is.

I'll go on the reason. I think, just so you know, Willie, the wind is supposed to be down to under ten miles an hour. I think that's why back up. But anyways, good.

Yeah, wind is not supposed to be a fact.

I still think the weather is not going to be great.

And I just think Pittsburgh it's one of these games where they run, run, run, kickfield, goals, punt. They just come into the game with the approach of, hey, let's not turn it over. Let's not screw it up. Winston will probably throw us a pick at some point, be conserved and win the game. You know, typical stealer. Every game is you know, sixteen thirteen, twenty to fourteen, something like that. So I will go under. I know there's not much margin for air when you're getting as low as thirty seven in the NFL, but that's a key number. At thirty six thirty six and a half, I would pass, but I will go under the thirty seven. I don't love it either. I don't love the card. This is not the last week. I had a good feel and there were picks on deck that I liked that got through it a great field last week. I don't feel the same way this week.

Kind of an ugly week.

But I will make the under.

One of my picks might end up being one if I can't find three too. I mean, I Jamis Winston in the cold and in the rain and the snow is not an image that I can sort of imagine in my head. There's a guy who's played in warm weather in college largely, I don't know. Just don't throw that pick in his own territory deep, you know, for your under Todd, what's your first.

I actually have a pick on tonight's game. I am gonna go down to the mistake on the Lake. That's what they call it here in Pittsburgh. They call it the mistake by the Lake, And I'm gonna take whoa. I'm gonna take the Bronnis. What do am I getting? Am I getting three and a half?

Yes? You are?

Yeah, I'm gonna take the Klee Bronnis plus the three and a half. Now, uns are gonna say uns are picking against your own store team, wood youans crazy. That's a crazy thing to do, are you? Did you eat too much done at lunch in East Librity. Well, here's why I'm saying that. Here's why I'm saying that. The Steelers are are eight and two against the spread and the Brownies are three and seven against the spread. The Stealers haven't lost a spread game in six weeks. Sooner or later they're gonna get you in the NFL. And this is a team that doesn't like to win by margin. We're also a team, like Willie said, it's gonna be grinding Pine in the snow. That means a those scoring game, those scoring game we got a better chance to cover our three and a half. I just think that if the Klee Brownies are ever gonna throw the kitchen sinking at at a team, they're gonna do it against their rivals, the Pittsburg Stores. They didn't play that bad in the Saints game. They average a lot of yards per play it down in New Orleans. I think they can move the ball a little bit, keep it close, lose at seventeen fourteen, give me the Klee Bronnis, and don't throw me out of Pittsburgh.

I like both of your I like both of your leans on this game and both of your plays. I in fact, am going to make the under thirty seven one of my plays.

Let's go.

I just I don't like this week enough to find three sides, and I think the weather gets me on the under here as well. That's one of those bets where it's like tip of the cap. If you beat y'all can score more than thirty seven points, good, I'm on the under thirty seven. Todd, make that I got it what you means. Okay, So let's start with Aaron again. Then Aaron, your number two would.

Be I'm gonna go over forty one and a half In the Giants and Buccaneers. Mike Evans is back for the Buccaneers offense, and I do like the idea of the kind of new quarterback kind of juices the offense a little bit for like a week. And I don't think Tommy Cutlets is that much worse than Daniel Jones. So I'm going with the over forty one and a half on the Giants and the Buccaneers, go Mike Evans.

Isn't that amazing They that Daniel Jones, the guy they paid that big contract to, ain't much better off any at all than Tommy. Tommy Gilly and I have matching Fiji's.

By the way, for those listening at home, I.

Want to say mine is bigger.

The way I like Aaron's pick because Tampa Bay is is a dumpster fire on defense. So if Tommy DeVito is going to be able to call the soprano guys and get himself a couple of touchdowns, this is the team to do it against, you know. So I kind of like that forty one and plus Tampa is going to score, So I kind of like that.

Aaron. Do you find that people's recollection of Tommy DeVito is a much more positive one than reality. Actually, was he?

What is people's recollection of Tommy Tavita?

Yeah, that he's so.

Are you asking about NFL fans in general or Giants fans in particular, Well, Giants fan, NFL fans in general know what Tommy DeVito was. Giants fans might be a little over excited.

Yeah, okay, that's by way. I'd like to ask ask Aaron to do the fact we are talking about the metal Lands. I contend that the metal Lands I have no statistical and that's why I'm asking you. I have no statistical basis. I contend that the Meadowlands is now the hardest place to kick a field goal? Am I correct? Aaron?

I do not know the answer to that question.

Do you have totally?

It feels like you're right.

Do you have? No?

I don't have like a mule of years worth of data together that I could like look right now.

Oh okay, anyways, I thought you might know. But the to me, it really seems like that meadow Lands is tough to kick a field goal and the wind is swirling around. I mean, where else is it hard to kick a field goal? Hines Field is no longer that hard. So where else are the tough places to kick a field goal?

I'm not sure. I think of all cold weather stadiums as basically being the same wherever, like.

Tomlin visits Cleveland tonight, feels like that. I can distinctly remember seeing field goal attempts in Cleveland look like they're going straight and then taking hard left.

I mean Buffalo when the weather is horrible. But that's not, you know, not in week one?

You know what was the stadium will where I got to the uh disagreement with the Lombardi and he said he violently disagreed with me about the win.

That was the Buffalo New England win game where it was just insane wins and New England didn't even try to.

Throw the ball.

They just handed off every dime, hand it off every down and one and one.

One and one? Uh, Toddy, what's your number two?

My number two? And I couldn't agree with you more that this is a very difficult card, not that any NFL card isn't difficult, But what am I getting in the what do I have the line at and the Seattle against the Arizona Cardinal game?

That's a pick them, dude, that is straight. Pick them, is it?

I've seen it at one. I've seen it a minus one, and I've seen it at pick them in different Wow.

I saw Seattle plus one and a half this morning. Now I'm seeing Seattle minus. Wanted some books, some books having to pick them that we're going to say.

Them, So we're gonna say pick them. I'm going to take the Seahattle Seahawks, pick them at home. I just think that very similar to you know, in the NFL, you know when teams covered multiple games in a row, you're kind of you know that you have to start paying the tax on them, and you're buying them high versus buying them low. And I feel like Arizona is a similar situation where Arizona's just been playing so well lately. They've played so many good games in a row, and Seattle had played so many bad games in a row. Metcalf was out and then finally they turned it around last week with that big win on the Geno Smith runs. I kind of feel that Seattle is starting to turn a little bit and Arizona you have to be you know, they can't be this good. I'm not saying they aren't good. I'm sure they are good. I'm just saying, are they really this good to go into Seattle now and have everything go right again like in every other game that they play. Give me the Seattle Seahawks. Pick them because I feel a little resurgence coming for Seattle.

Uh.

You know, Seattle got blown out in that Buffalo game, but it really wasn't It could have been totally different. They were inside the five yard line a number of times in that game, could have scored, and that game could have been a completely different game. There were There's a bunch of games where Seattle has been kind of like, you know, weird to look at. I just feel like you're you're buying Arizona too high now and and Seattle I could get to buy low unlike Bitcoin. So I'll take Seattle. Pick them.

Wait wait, I'm hearing something Gino Smith tie game back to passing.

Then it's not that comment, will you?

You can't do my routines if you don't do it properly. You didn't give us a time, you didn't even score, you didn't give us anything. I'll mix it again.

I'll try to surprise you, like a month from now, I'll practice at home and I'll be better.

You didn't give us a pylon involved and you didn't turn purple.

Yeah, and the ball has to be tipped in the air, and then the color guy has.

To go aha, loses it. All right, Well, what's your second?

What do we have for Eagles? Rams?

That's what's that?

Drew three some places and two and a half in some places.

I think the most three. I'm gonna go with three. I think we have to give the.

Yeah, you know, I'll go elsewhere. I'm gonna go back. You know I can't do Titans. I'll go under forty and a half? Is it forty and a half?

Titans? Texans?

I was so I'm just not doing it.

I'm not doing it. You know what, I might actually do it for my third pick.

Forty and a half, Yes, sir, I will go under.

I just don't love the Texans offensive line. I think the Tennessee still got some players defensively, They've just been so snaked bit in these games. You just, man, you touch the stove and you get burned. You don't want to keep touching it. So I don't know that I'm gonna make the Titans my third pick, But I do think their defense can keep this game close. It is kind of a semi rivalry game the old Oilers. It's a division game. Texans are up, you know, it's a short week for them. I think that the Titans can keep this game close defensively and just make it like, you know, a twenty three sixteen type of game. So again, there's not a lot to choose from here. I like the Texans defense. These teams are both top five yards per play allowed. I will go under forty and a half and hope mister Levis does not throw the ball to the team wearing the other uniforms.

I so want you to play the Titans, all right? My number two, My number two is my favorite pick. Which is the only thing that I jumped at during guessing lines on Monday, which is I like the Baltimore Ravens in the Harrorball Bowl Monday night. Was it two and a half or three? Right now? Three?

I see those? What do you guys think it's more more common? Sing two and a half.

I'm seeing both equally.

I mean, if I get two and a half on Philly, I can give you two and a half on Baltimore.

But if I'm not getting the three. I can't give you the three. That's just how this goes.

No Philadelphia, clear it is much more three.

So this one's split.

One's split. I think.

Let's let Aaron make the calls.

I thought.

I'm getting the worst of it, but I'll still do it. I don't think the Chargers are quite the hype gene that people are making. They their list of vanquished opponents is not very strong, and they almost fell apart in that Bengals game last week. I think people are a little mesmerized by Harball. I get it. Their defense is good, but the Ravens are just a better football team to me, and I think that that Pittsburgh game also, coming off of that game, is going to be nothing but a good thing for this team heading into this one. It's a little bit of That was a Sunday night game. It was not a Monday night game, so it's not really extra rest. But I just my reaction to this, my guess was it was going to be Baltimore minus four. It opened minus two. I betted at minus two and a half. I'll still play it at three. I think the Ravens are going I think John over Jim here in this one. Which is a big game for both teams. In the Ravens case, depending on what the Steelers do here tonight could be about getting back into the betting favorite for the division, could be back, you know, getting back to Lamar being the short shot for MVP. We'll see, but I'm on the Ravens as my numbers. I thought about that.

Uh.

I don't think Lamar is a good pick just because he already won it twice. He won it last year. They've already got four losses. I mean, he's probably gonna lose another game or two. Are they're really going to give it back to back years to a guy with you know, five six losses. I'm not sure, but I thought about taking Baltimore. Tucker kept me off at Tucker's been awful. He's gone from automatic to just bat Aaron, do you do you have any theory, like any precedent for somebody.

Being so I do not know what has happened into him, like it happens to kickers sometimes, and I don't know what it is, and I don't know how to fix it.

It's like having a bad closer in baseball. It's like you only can use it with the game.

No you can hide your closer, you can demote your closer to set up right, you can't demote your kicker to anything good.

Point Yeah, well none of that dissuades me. And Lamar has twenty five touchdowns and three picks. Yeah, more, more and all the you know, all the running yard of course as well. I have a real time coming up with number three this week, I really do. I am tempted to do the kiniella tonight and do two picks on that game, but I don't want to do that. I'm gonna stick with just the under What is the line that you are seeing for the do Do Do Do? Sorry about this? For the Denver Broncos, what do you sing?

Six?

Yes?

Six?

Who are you gonna take? By the way, in the game tonight, what was what was the side you liked?

I was gonna take the Browns? Yeah, I mean I like you know, fuck it, I'm taking the Browns plus three and a half. Sorry, I really I like that better than I like anything on Sunday. I really do.

So.

I'm literally playing both the side and the total in tonight's game. I'm on the Brownies plus three and a half. It's a low total. I'm betting the under already, so I think it's gonna be even lower. Their four three and a half points is a lot. I do think the Steelers are the better football team, but those conditions are gonna sort of even the playing field. I think it's gonna be a big running game tonight on both sides of the football. But I think the Browns keep it close. I'm not a trends guy, as I said, but I don't hate those trends obviously. For this Browns plus three and a half at home on a short week is a better play to me than anything on Sunday. How about that? That's my thirst?

Is it better than under one thirty six and a half? Drake Miami at the sixteen minute commercial, which I just did? Is it better than that? At?

Oh?

Is that what you just did?

Yeah? Traveling, traveling on Drake, we're going the other way.

I'm not sure it's I'm not sure it's better than that. I'm not sure it's better than that? Really? Really, what's your last.

Yeah, I'm just gonna pass. I'm gonna forfeit the third game. I don't like anything.

You know, what the hell? What do we have for hope?

Would we get one thirty six and a half? I literally opened my sports is one thirty one already Jesus because a commercial.

At the commercial it was one thirty six and a half, and then Drake takes the shot, talk all the way down to nothing, missus a shot, and then they'd stopped Miami. So when you get like a minute and fifteen of nothing, you get five points less. So you were blathering on about Cleveland. I didn't want to interrupt blathering.

By the way, go ahead. Will I enjoyed it?

I'm laughing and I'm so I'm so torn here. I'll just I'll take the Titans plus the eight it was between that, and I'll go back to it again, same handicap. I just think their defensive line versus the Texans offensive line can give them some issues close game. I haven't loved what I've seen from the Texans. They do some strange things. They got away with it because Dallas was so inept on Monday. But I wasn't impressed with them Monday. I haven't been impressed them all year. They're just gonna They're just in the right division and they have just enough to, you know, to get it done. I think Mixing is somebody I thought was kind of washed with Cincy. He's played great, But I think Tennessee can stop the run here and just keep this game clos So what could go wrong? Tennessee Titans plus eight, looking for their second cover of the year somehow.

Less your heart, Less your heart. We were doing a deep dive on a numbers game yesterday for fewest wins. DraftKings has fewest wins in the NFL when the season is all said and done, and it just was such a in case you didn't already know, right, there's like ten teams that have a shot at this The bottom of the NFL is so bad this year, and I think the favorite after we looked at the schedules, I think the short shot is, in fact the Cleveland Browns at plus three fifty. If they lose tonight, that will be cut in half for sure. I think the only other team that has a not the only other team, but I think the two bets that I would agree with are either Cleveland or the New York Giants. Who look at that remaining schedule and you're like, I don't know if there's a win on there for the Giants. They do play the Cowboys at Dallas next week. That's the only one. All the others, including the Jaguars, who have a half game lead over the field at two and nine. There's too many possible wins left on that schedule, and I have a feeling they're going to go to CJ. Bethard at some point, and Bethard's better than Max Jones.

I think, so you do that.

There's a lot of teams that suck, but I think it's the Browns of the Giants say again, or Trevor.

Comes back, you're supposed to be back next week for Jacksonville or that.

There you go.

It's funny, though, some of these teams that are terrible. If you're a fan, you're like, oh, man, our team stinks. We got two wins, three wins. There's playing those teams, but like, hey, at least we're gonna get a good pick. Some of these teams that are terrible gonna be picking like eight tens. You're not even gonna get a good pick because there's so many other bad teams, which just adds injury to insult.

Aaron, do you remember the league being this bottom heavy? Uh?

Yeah, it's been a long time since it was this bottom heavy. This is a particularly bottom heavy year.

So bad that I bring that up because Will was was betting on the Titans, and I'm just like, man, are they They probably should have won a couple more games along the way, but they didn't, right, So now you wonder if they will. What it's like with all these teams that are two and nine, two and eight, three and seven or four and seven, Like the best they can be is four and thirteen when you go through their skin.

All right, Raiders, Raiders are another one.

Aaron, your final pick? Do we get?

Yeah?

Aaron's final pick?

Then all right, go ahead? No time, Billy did it wrong? But go ahead?

Well go ahead, Eric, I'll go with the Ravens, all the advanced metrics like the Ravens. I think the Ravens have this habit of losing close games because of penalties. I think if they lose to the Charges, it'll be close, but I think if they win, it will be big. So I'm not scared of a three point line because I think if like Ravens should be favored, and I think that if they win, it's not going to be by two or three, it's going to be by like fourteen. So I'm going to go with the Ravens minus three.

It's going to be like a metaphorical John Harball giving Jim a nookie. That's what this is, older brother to younger. All right, Todd, you little whiner, you're your last pick.

You know. It's interesting what Aaron just said, because what it reminded me of is the people that had the thing on Twitter that said you should play like an alt line ladder on the Lions last week, and you should like lay this amount for plus three hundred, this amount for plus four fifty, this amount for plus five fifty, and then of course yeah, yeah, So if you like what Aaron's is selling here with Baltimore to win by a lot, you might want to look at one of those ault lines, you know, and ladder it up like the Lions. You know, you kind of want a fortune in the lines game. I don't know if you agree with that, Aaron or not, but.

No, I think when the Ravens, when they win big and when they lose, they lose close.

So you would you agree with that idea of laddering up.

Yeah.

I like the idea of an alternate line, like a Ravens minus seven or a Ravens minus ten. Yeah, that'd be interesting.

I don't do those other way.

You never get the bang for your buck on those. I don't know if I don't look at them a lot. But even the ones last week, like people were laying thirty eight and a half with Detroit and I know it got home and it's nice to cash at twenty to one, but man, you're laying thirty eight and a half of the NFL game and I don't know. Just some of those, it doesn't feel like they give you the true odds.

I rarely look at those myself here, by the way, besides Detroit, which is number one with a bullet in Aaron's DVOA through ten games, Baltimore is number two, Buffalo three, here's the one that I was surprised by, Minnesota four in Kansas City five. Wow. Vikings are tough to evaluate.

To me, they've been on the decline in the last few weeks in the weighted where I lower the effect of the earlier games.

They're only seventh, but they have such a history as coming through when it matters, so I'm sure they'll turn it around.

Aaron, where do you have the Steelers.

The Steelers are much lower in my numbers, like thirteenth or fourteenth.

Wow, you know he's got a spot above your You know he's got a spot above your Steelers. Toddy the three time Super Bowl champion of Washington Redskins.

Oh you mean the team with a quarterback who has no ribs left? You mean that quarter that team. He's definitely injured in his in his internal.

Mid there's no question. Like people are like, hey, he's not doing well. He's so clearly not trying to run as much the last couple of weeks. You can tell.

And he's not throwing the ball. He's not throwing the ball the same way with his like I saw that Chase Daniel thing on the film, and you can see he's not like like pulling into the throw real hard. I mean he's definitely hurt. I think he is.

But anyways, there's no question.

Yeah, yeah, I like you guys have said, you know what, I'm just gonna do this. This is great, Okay, I'm gonna go. I'm gonna hold my nose and I'm gonna go with the Antonio Piercers. Plus six and a half? Is that what I'm getting? Six and half? Am I getting six and a half there, it's kind.

Of six six six. Don't go crazy.

I'll take Antonio Peers, he of the back door cover. He has now done it twice and we've talked about it ad nauseum. On here mister Antonio Piers who looks at the magic eight ball and says, shall I go for it on fourth down? The magic eight ball? What have you to say?

And then he goes down and Toni a Pearce's magic eight ball just says no on every.

Side, although he did once Aaron go Ford Kansas City on a fourth and goal from the three, which we thought, where where did he come up with this? Because he always doesn't do that. Anyway, I'm going to take the Raiders plus the six. I'm going to hold my nose here. This is really this is really the theme of my week, which is fade teams that have looked amazing the last couple of weeks and buy low on ship bag teams. And you know, that's why I'm doing in Cleveland, and that's what I'm going to do here in Las Vegas. I just look, Do I want to take the Raiders?

Of course not?

But are the Broncos really this good? I mean, yeah, they almost beat the Chiefs. Very impressive win over Atlanta. I know everyone's getting all bonized about Bonecks and everything. Oh he's so great and everything, But are they really good enough to go on the road and win by six? Now? Granted, the Raiders stink, so of course they could. They did beat him thirty four eighteen in the early game, the first game they played this year. Actually, the Raiders kind of dominated the first quarter and a half of that game, and then the Broncos came on in Mile High or wherever they play those games now and killed him thirty four eighteen. But I'm just hoping the Raiders can hang around, hang around, be down twelve late and somehow, you know, Antonio gets us the magic touchdown at the end, or whether they're down nine and he decides to kick the field goal or whatever. I don't know. Just give me some Raiders love here, Raiders plus.

Six Antonio Peers. The radio people know this. But I'm not sure if I mentioned on the megapot this year or not, but Antonio Piers lived in my complex here in Las Vegas. He was in the West tower. I was in the East tower, So I would I would frequently leave the building at the same time. He did in the off season, not during the regular season. He would leave earlier, and I could never work up the courage to talk to talk to him about his decisions because it's a very intimidating human being. And someone tweeted this week which I thought was the greatest tweet of the week, where they're like, because I said something negative about Antoniopiers and they're like, oh, he'll went to Antonio Piers's apartment and made age sure that every item was out of there before he finally said a critical word. It's not true. I would say a critical word to him on there's radio on the radio, just not to his face. But he's moved out, so I don't know what that means. I don't know where he went. You guys should have done something, yeah, getting that head coach to money, that's right, Yeah.

You should have.

You should have done something where you guys leave the building at the same time, but you switch jobs for a day where Antonio Piers the numbers game and you can coach the Raiders.

Who do you think who do you think would have a rougher time him doing the show?

Well, you know, Antonio Pierce was a a intern at the Howard Stern Show after being a New York Giant. I remember, I remember listening to this and he was an intern at the Howard Stern Show. I forget whether it was for a whole week or for a day, and it was fantastic.

You're saying that would go better than Max Crosby dealing with me as the head coach of the Raiders.

For a day, Jilly blowing the whistle, Hey, you get in, bring it in.

It's getting mad at the Raiders, which will be like teasing.

I want you guys to play like Joe Gibbs told the Skins to play.

Yeah, let's go jumbo package, all right. Teaser of the week. God help me, I'm so has there ever been a worse performance than my teaser performance this week?

This year?

God?

I'm going with the defend myself against the back door cover teaser, which would be Chiefs minus five at Carolina and Texans minus two at home against Tennessee.

AC minus five and what was the other one?

Texans minus two?

I think you had Texans minus one and a half and a half.

The idea there is these teams are good enough to win, but they might take their foot off the gas at the end. So I don't want to go eleven points with Kansas City, but I could go five.

Speaking of which, I think we should all play the team. We should all play the Carolina team total under this week. How is Carolina going to get to how many points do they need? Sixteen? What do they need this week? Carolina? I don't see it again.

Seen seventeen and a half is juice.

It's almost like it's right around as I looked last night on another show fifteen and a half, which is kind of a dead number, but you can get like a fourteen and a half at a reasonable number, so they're kind of making you pay for it. But I mean, two touchdowns in a field might be tough. Young has looked a little at least a little better, like he's had a pulse, but that's still probably not a bad bet.

I still don't think and we don't do team totals obviously on the show. I think Carolina team total under is the best bet of the week. I just don't see them scoring on Spagnola. But anyways, my teaser is going to be the La Chargers plus eight and a half, So I'm going against I'm going against what Aaron has told me here, but I just have a feeling that the Harbaugh Harrba we're gonna somehow, they're gonna hang around. So I'm gonna go with the LA Chargers because I don't like the Ravens defense. I just can't stand the Ravens defense, so I feel like they're always exposed to backdoor touchdowns. Give me the LA Clippers US eight and a half, and I'm gonna take it with the Detroit endless Wings minus one and a half against Indy, So that'll be my teaser the week. I just don't see Indy winning the game. Maybe they can cover it, but I don't see them winning the game. So give me Lions minus one and a half.

Willie Oho Lions, Dolphins, Dolphins over the Patriots.

I think they still have a you know, a habit.

I've taken care of a business against these middling to lesser teams like the Patriots. So Dolphins to win, basically, Lions to win. Hopefully get this one in the bank and get on.

Track here with the teasers.

So officially, officially it's Dolphins minus one and a half Lions minus one and a half.

Wow, you're not gonna screw me on the lines for a change. That's that's just this is new Well.

Because he's right, that's right, the Lions. The Lions thing scares me for some reason. I don't know. Why shouldn't put it? Does Downies Niners? What could go wrong?

All right?

Wait, so you're going Brownies up to nine and a half, then you're going with the Niners. You are still Gilly's the last person off the Niners boat. If you know Niners, he's never getting off that Niners boat. Why Gilly, why will you not get off the Niners boat?

You know what, You're one hundred percent right that it's irrational. They cannot field a full football team no matter how hard they try. Somebody comes back, somebody gets hurt, and it just might be that year, you know. But if something's going to happen, it's going to be this week. And if they were to beat the Packers, everybody would change their tune instantly. On the nine. I agree with you because on Pio right, because on paper, they still have more talent if it's all on the field, than almost anybody.

They just have the margin for air.

Yeah, they're they're running out of margin air too with their schedule with Lions and Bills, and this week it's probably going to have to get to ten wins because their tiebreaker scenario is not great, but they're running out of time.

Yeah, Purdy's on the injury report now too. It's like anyway, that's my teaser, which brings us to our final two questions of each and every megapod. Final two questions, the first of which is which of the big favorites is the most likely to lose? Outright, here are your candidates. The Detroit Lions seven and a half point favorites at the Indianapolis Colts, the Chiefs ten and a half point favorites at the Carolina Panthers. Remember this has nothing to do with the spread. I'm just giving you the candidate Commodores ten point favorites at home against the Cowboys, just the fifth time since I have been a human being that the Commodores have been double digit favorites against the Dallas Cowboys nineteen eighty nine, nineteen ninety, nineteen ninety one, two thousand as a Brad Johnson team, And this week, candidate number two the Dolphins seven and a half point favorites at home against the Patriots, Texans seven and a half point favorites at home against the Titans. I'm not gonna throw in the Broncos because I don't wanna. I don't want to pollute that group. Those are your choices, Aaron. Who's the most likely of those of that group to lose outrights?

Miami, Miami, Miami, because I don't think their defense is good, And because Drake May seems like the kind of guy right now who has a wide range of possibilities where he could throw three picks or he could just make a couple of just outstanding, ridiculous plays. So I would say, of those of those underdogs, the one that's most likely to win outright is the Patriots.

How would you characterize the general consensus New England sports fan view of him at this point? We got the guy, we got the guy, Okay, Todd.

I'm gonna go with the Broncos. Does Broncos one of the choices?

No? I took it out on purpose so you couldn't use it.

Oh, Okay, So then I I'm gonna then I'm gonna agree with uh. I'm gonna go with Aaron's call. I just don't think Capri Pants has it all locked down enough to the fact to the place where he's for sure gonna win games he's supposed to win. So I could totally see him, you know, looking in his card and ruining the game. So I'll go with Miami. Also, you hate Mike xcuse me? Oh, I don't hate him, I have I actually don't hate him. I just don't think he's next level coaching, and clearly he shouldn't be wearing pre pants. But that's the only thing I don't like about it. Do you think he was up for six in the fourth quarter he would throw the ball to No, he would run the ball, because that's what you're supposed to do in the fourth quarter. You're supposed to take your starter out if you're up forty two to six because he could get hurt.

Yeah, he's done that, Kiffen. I don't know if you've ever seen that in college.

I will go with the Titans over the Texans.

Reasons. Willie Lank through the ball against Furman seventy six to nothing in the fourth quarter with the fourth string quarterback. He's throwing the ball trying to get over eighty And for me, that is the most egregious action you could possibly take on a football field.

Now, come on, don't the fourth string quarterback deserve to get to throw a couple passes too?

You know what, Aaron may be in his own side of the field, but not.

From quarterback to point of view, rather than from the coach's point of view.

What was what about the winning seventy six to nothing against Furman? It's ridiculous. I took tea.

I don't have I didn't have any reasons though.

You took the Texans.

Okay, Texans Texas.

Yeah, I am going to say, you ready for this, ladies and gentlemen, the Detroit Lion.

Oh.

I just have a feeling. It's like a blink Malcolm Gladwell blink thing. I can't really explain it. I just it's fifty years of watching football. Something in my head is telling me something might be question.

For Hushem Karma. If you're going to be forty two, Hashem Karma would definitely say, if you're up forty two to six and you're throwing the ball, you deserve to lose the following week because of obnoxious behavior. You know what happened to sportsmanship? What happened to sportsmanship in sports at thirty five six, you shouldn't even be throwing forget forty two sick? Is sportsmanship completely dead? What happened to like, you know, you don't have to embarrass the other guy?

Is that?

Is that gone in life? Now? Has that just been totally? Is that over? Now? What happened to that?

Am I seriously the only one of us who lived through the year two thousand and seven?

It was wrong then, Aaron? It wasn't right then, wasn't Aaron? No, it wasn't Ji.

This is not new, This is not new Belichick.

Belichick was annoyed because the spygate, remember, and he wanted to.

You don't think that was why?

No, I don't think. I don't know whether it was spygate or what. I just they just I just remember the complaints. I just remember the complaints.

Yeah, yeah, Before we're okay.

Can we just ask Karon what his biggest surprise of the NFL season has been, opinion? Because I'd love to hear that.

I mean, I I think it's Washington because maybe because uh, I said, one of the rookie quarterbacks is going to be really good. We don't know which one it is. And it turns out that the answer was it was Daniels.

I think you're more oppressient calls. Was that you said, at least one or two of the second year guys is not going to be good?

I said, is like a rookie. I said, Richardson is like a rookie. He could suck like a rookie. He's basically like a rookie. And he did suck. Yeah.

Yeah, So who is your biggest surprise On the downside, getting a lot of work out of here?

Dallas and the Patriots defense. I thought the Patriots would have a top ten defense. Their defense is horrifyingly bad.

The Cowboys thing is fascinating because I feel like a lot of people now are like, oh, yeah, totally, I could totally see this coming, could we?

It was a team that won twelve games the last three years? What do you mean you see this coming?

I agree. I'm like people are being way too nonchalant about this to me, where it's like, oh, yeah, Jerry sucks, well, Jerry does suck, but it's like, did you really think they'd be this bad? And it's just an incredible collapse.

And once every three or four years they have one of these years where like Romo would get hurt or Dak would get hurt and the wheels come off and then they bounce back next year. Maybe that's why, because we've seen this before once every few years with that, maybe I don't.

Know, Billy. They were minus thirteen against the Redskins late last year and now they're plus ten against the Redskins. It's an incredible have you ever seen that ever? In two years?

On guessing lines, I said Washington minus seven. Kelly tells me Washington minus ten, and I just start giggling because I'm like, it's not in my DNA to guess that Washington will be a double digit favorite over Dallas. That's amazing.

I consider Dallas as one of my picks, but I couldn't do it.

Hey, listen, I dare you? Okay? Final question? We live in a bizarro world, Aaron, where we are forced to bet a side on every single game that's on the NFL slate for a given a week. But you are allowed one free pass, one game that you want want no part of on the line. What game with it?

Rams? Eagles?

Rams? That's as good a choice as any What that was it? You will last week? I said, what the hell are the Rams? Are they good?

Are they good?

What are they?

I can't figure out the Rams.

Hell.

I know what the Eagles are, but I don't know what the Rams are. And I think that this line being three points is about perfect, and I think that the over undertow being about fifty is about perfect. And I wouldn't want to have any part of it.

Who is the most What the fuck team? Is it the Rams or is it like the Colts? Like what, there's a bunch of those two, right?

The team?

Yeah, but we still think they're good, right, like I'm the Rams are When they do.

Don't like lose to the Raiders, it's like, what the hell is going on?

True? That's for sure? True Todd, same question, What game we want no part of?

Much like Baller TV, which is the TV network that we have to pay money to watch East Carolina against Jacksonville. Say, I have no idea what Baller TV is, and I also have no idea what's going on in the Chicago locker room. So therefore I will avoid the Chicago Minnesota Viking game.

Wilson Hillson Chiefs Panthers.

I could see this being one of these Chiefs where they chief games where they just kind of sludged through it and it's somehow a seven point game late in typical Chiefs not covering big numbers, or I could see this being, you know, twenty seven to seven Chiefs get on track. He's moved the ball here and then motivated after a loss. So I have no interest either side of that game.

I could literally pick ten games this week for this, like every Sunday game, because I have no conviction on it him. I'm gonna say it is the Washington Taco Holders against the Dallas Cowboys. I don't know. I could see Washington blowing them out, or I could see the Cowboys actually keeping it close. The problem with the Cowboys the other night was for as cosmetic as that final score scened, like Houston in a blowout, Cooper Rush did throw to use your acronym, Todd, he threw about four or five inches in that game interceptions that should have happened, and it was like Houston could have destroyed him that way too, but they didn't. They kept dropping. So I'll say Washington in doubt.

Aaron.

Your Twitter handle once again is do I have this right a shot? L Yeah?

Ah Atz NFL.

A Shots, NFL, FTN Sports is where he does his thing once again. The FTN go to Twitter handle is FDN Fantasy.

FTN Fantasy is the main ur l and the main handle at this point. Yeah, we've sort of merged everything, even though we do betting and we do dfs and we do DVOA, and we've kind of merged it all under the FTN Fantasy banner.

All right, Aaron, always a pleasure man. Thank you so much. Great having you on this show. You remember the first time you came on the megapod. It's one of your more famous lines ever that we still quote to this day, which is after about five minutes. I don't know if you remember you're saying this. After five minutes, you go, I'm gonna have to get used to the rhythm of this podcast. That's one of the great lines ever. The rhythm. That was a shot at you, Todd, That's what it was.

Well, this podcasts definitely mega.

It's definitely definitely mega whatever that whatever mega entails Todd Wishnev from his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, PA. Will Hill should have bet more podcasts, Aaron, what is your you go live on Twitter. I see that come up.

Also Monday. Monday and Thursday at eleven am Eastern, me and Mike Tanier on YouTube and Twitter do our FTN shots into near NFL podcasts. So yeah, Mondays and Thursdays eleven am Eastern.

I got a cute up by listen every week. It's great.

Yeah, it pops up on my thing and I keep meaning to hit on it. I'm like, what's thereon doing? Okay, a numbers game today.

Break lead sixty one seven. We're five thirty three to play. As long as we can stay out of the bow zone, We're gonna leave this.

One when Drake is leading. That's called God's plan.

Good luck with all your bets. Week twelve, Ashitt, good bye

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