Beating The Book: 2024 Week 10 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview

Published Nov 7, 2024, 8:30 PM

Gill Alexander, Todd Wishnev (VSiN Contributor), Will Hill (VSiN Contributor), and Mike Pritchard (Former NFL Wide Receiver), break down all of the week ten NFL betting action! The quartet gives you their best bets of the week, best teaser options, which big favorite is most likely to lose outright, and the game they want no part of.

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Man Thursday morning, November seventh, twenty twenty four is the Beating the Book podcast, week number ten in the National Football League. It's Gil Alexander back from a week away, and let me just start by saying a big thank you too, Todd Wish, Nevin will Hill, pillars of this show. Todd, you were the hosts, and I got one tweet that stood above all that said you were quote strangely professional unquote thank you. I think you oddly professional. I thought it was oddly, but then I looked yesterday I think it said strange. Either way, the person was very surprised how professional you were, Todd. And my question to you is, first of all, after saying thank you, is why can't you be this way every week?

Well, I'll answer that because I felt my very professional job was done at the sake of entertainment. And if you'd like your podcast to be entertaining, I'll continue to be entertaining. But if you'd like me to go to more professional, I'll keep it much less entertaining and much more professional.

Mister Alexandra, throw it back to you.

So what I heard there is you're unable to do both because you're not really that talented enough to do both.

Is that what you're saying?

That is correct.

You can be professional or you can be entertaining. Okay, if you want professional, that's fine, we have that with you. You're professional. Now we also need to mix in spices with entertainment.

So I'm not entertaining, that's what you're saying. I'm only doing one of them. Is that what you're saying.

No, I'm saying it's hard to be entertaining and professional at the same time. It has something to do with you personally. It's not a personal thing. I don't know why I had us to get so personal. We're talking about ways of broadcasting. If I have to explain this to the viewer me to the podcast business. I know a guy who has should have been more podcast.

Sure, it's okay, but you know it could be more entertaining only okay.

Will Todd wishneb had t Wishnev on Twitter, who was an oddly or strangely professional host of this show yesterday last week, which by the way, I think he went three and oh and so he's like super excited talk about records.

Will Hill should have been more podcasts.

It's okay.

I think Todd just said.

That's a fair assessment. I man, second week in a row, I probably should have had a three, and now I had my Seattle. Not only did they get zero points with three trips in the red zone, but they got negative seven points with three trips in the red zone because on one of was a pick six. Last week I had Bryce Youngo ninety eight yards and like thelast two minutes to get me a push, so to a couple two and ones in a row. I'm trying to trying to call back here, but I'll just.

Keep going here.

Okay, we'll get to that momentarily.

Our guest this week coming back for his uh I hope is his annual appearance that it seems like uh actually played the game.

Aeric Oseel used to say, I never played the game. This guy actually played.

Was a champion and national champion at the University of Colorado back in the day, and then played for the Denver Broncos, the Seattle Seahawks, and the Atlanta Falcons, where, of course, he is most famous for losing to the nineteen ninety one Washington Redskins, the greatest team of all time.

Mike Richard, our friend. How you doing, Pritch?

I'm great.

I don't know if I'm most famous for that, but Brett Farr certainly.

Made name for himself by that one.

And by the way, was not an unprofessed Pritch. Was that not an unprofessional comment by Gil?

Quite very professional.

Interest in a good movies.

Colorado team is flying high the Nuggets last night, so we got a prenching, a good news. Birthday was last week. We got preching in a good mood here.

Yeah. I just love happy to be here.

I just love to Pritch and I were in the same building twice that year, in nineteen ninety one at RFK, first of which again Mark Rippin threw six touchdown passes. That was the game where Brett far through his first pick ever Barry Bonds.

I heard it had three touchdowns in that game.

No, you did not pick six to Andre Collins and then of course, so that was a tighter game. Thank you for doing this, Pitch. I really appreciate it. By the way, what about your Buffalo six and two? And kind of after last year, dare we say flying under the radar this year?

Well, you know, I think so nobody expected this.

You know, I hit the over last year with the four wins, that was a sweat, to be honest with you, but it was an exciting slate. But you know, this year, with the influx of talent, you know, only question mark I had on the team, Gil is will the coaches be able to to help these guys get better?

And certainly they have.

I mean they got two premium players, actually they got about they got about ten premium players.

It's going to get drafted.

But in terms of the overall roster, they still needed to develop that right and we've seen that and we pulled out some wins. We've been resilient and certainly I think coach prom has done a great job.

Is your friend coach Brian gonna leave once your Door graduates this year? Who goes the Pros? And Travis Hunter as well.

That's a good question. I don't think so.

I think he's going to give it one more year after because everybody is anticipating that he's going to leave. He's going to get some kind of offer, right, it's going to blow him away. He's going to chase that or is he going to support your Door and wherever he goes as a quarterback in the National Football League. There's all kinds of speculations, but he's got a great relationship with Brick George are a d and I know the contract was what four years with a fifth year option, So I think he'll give.

It one more year.

From a commitment standpoint, he's approaching sixty years old. I expect him to retire. And it's international football. He's a grandfather now too, so uh, you know, if you know, if you know Dion Sanders at all man, he's a family man, to be honest with you first before everything else.

Six and two Colorado. Who are they playing this week again?

Texas Texas Texas?

Yeah, they should be five and three if we're going to be fair that one.

You know, that's some professional right there.

Like that, Thank you, Britch.

Rich wasn't up late when they hit the hell Mary against uh I forget who, but.

But they're lost in Kansas. They could have won that game.

Yeah, I watched. They could have been Kansas State, you know. So we go back to six and towns Baylor.

I think I'll take it back, Rich, Pritch, I take it, Pritch, I take it back. I was just trying to be entertaining. Yeah, that's right there, we go it.

To be entertaining everything Todd does so entertaining. Todd one of the records from last week.

Well, I'll entertain you with some records here, Gilly, if that's your real name, Gilly with a ho hum two in one Brown's not a very good pick a Raven solid and Arizona solid.

And by the way, all three of us had Arizona last week. First time ever we all three had the same thing and it won. Usually it's the kiss of death. Unfortunately, Gilly lost his teaser, so he goes to fourteen, twelve and one and picks and two and seven on teasers. He probably will pick it up sooner or later. In the teaser area, Willie went two and one again Seattle was his miss uh and he lost. He tied his teaser with Texans plus eight. So he goes to eleven six and one and three five and one on the teasers. I had his records. What's his record?

Move on?

He said, eleven siiction and one.

It works.

I'm sorry too, I'm sorry eleven eleven.

I messed up.

It should be ten sixteen and one, ten sixteen and one.

Thank you for the professionalism, ten sixteen and one now. I, on the other hand, had what we just call a typical week three and oh over Giants Arizona and the Vikings and another teaser win to move to sixteen and eleven and four and five on teasers.

I knew we would catch up there on teasers. Unfortunately, Pritch, you better do well this week.

Our guest has been taking on oil oh and three last week oh and three, the week before the guest is twelve fourteen and one, but five and four on teasers, So.

Pritch that the pressure is on.

Okay, right, thank you very much. Just a great week for me, then, I guess, huh.

I'm a game and a half behind you. Game and a half.

What we would also like to call a gigantic moat.

You were up by about seven billion games earlier in the season, and I have just chip chip.

You're chipping away. Very nice job.

Can we talk very quickly about the dummies of the week. I want to nominate the dummies of the week.

Did you need me to answer that or you're just gonna motor boat over again?

Sure you can. Sorry, Okay, I say that we make it.

The people who think that as gigundies dogs late in the game when they tie it, by the way, thankfully they did.

Thankfully they did it.

I'll say thank you to Todd Bowles because I had minus three and plus seven and a half in the Chiefs in the Chiefs game and he ties the game or twenty four to twenty three in the rain. First of all, it's not guaranteed you're going to make an extra point in the rain. That's number one. But number two, he decides not to go for two. Now, I'm going to do some basic math with you, guys. It may be entertaining a two point conversion is worth what about a fifty percent play maybe if you're Tampa in the rain of forty five percent play, It's somewhere in the neighborhood of forty five to fifty percent play. Maybe the Chiefs have a good defense.

Whatever.

Anyways, let's just call it forty five percent. Now, you also could miss the extra point, which is also takes off about seven percent right there. But if you go to if you kick the extra point and go to overtime, like the old school way of doing things, now you are probably a huge.

Dog in that game.

I didn't look at what the money line was, will Did you see the money line at that point when they were probably minus one eighty I would think at least because the Chiefs pregame were in the minus what two eighty to a three hundred range, they had to Yeah, the money line when the Chiefs won the toss was minus two as before the toss. Yeah, okay, because obviously don't know you're going to lose the toss. But what I'm saying is, let's say before the toss, that's what mine. It's got to be at least minus one eighty. So right there, it's telling you very clearly you have to go for two. Now, the same thing, I'm not as upset said about it in Seattle because the teams are somewhat even and New England probably should have done it as well when they got that miracle touchdown. Do you guys agree at least two out of three of them.

Should have gone for them?

The Todd Bowles one all. The only sentence that I can come up with to accurately describe my feeling about it is do you want to play more football against Patrick Mahomes or not?

Right?

And the answer ought to be no. Like if you said to Todd Bowles before the game. And I love Todd Bowles, He's a champion with the Washington football team back in the day Skins. He should have said to himself if I had said to him before the game, Hey, Todd, the whole game, we're going to race the game. You have one play from the two yard line. You either win or lose depending on the outcome of that play. Do you prefer that over playing sixty minutes of football against Patrick Mahomes? He would have said yes, one hundred times out of one hundred, right, the same as go ahead.

Yeah.

The only thing is there was twenty seven seconds. I think if you get it, you're making Mahomes now in four down territory, you're making you more aggressive. I agree, I would have gone for two. To me, the much bigger issue, the much bigger mistake was calling the time out with thirty second out. You got to get that to the sweet spot of like twelve fifteen eighties because you're just you're saving more time for Mahomes. You're on the one yard line. You're not going to run out of time there. And maybe Kansas City would have called the time out anyway. I think they were going to. But I thought that was the big mistake, is calling time out there.

Yeah, I did a hold on the go ahead.

You know, I was just going to say remain aggressive that on that drive because you know, you think about Baker and how he's playing that guy twenty three touchdown pass so far this year. Uh, he's actually elevated the players on the roster that's around him right now without Mike Evans.

Uh.

And so you know, the element of surprise too was with Tampa. Like your two point play playbook, there's maybe seven solid plays in there, right, and you work on about four or five of them each and every week. So the element of the prize was there. I mean Kansas City, it's like Kansas City went in the Super Bowl with Hardman last year out here in Vegas. I mean, the element of surprise was still there for Tampa Bay as well as the aggressive nature, so I thought they should have went for as well.

Yeah, I you know, because there's someone on.

Vson who took the stance that you know, anybody who says that he should have gone for two hasn't been in a locker room or hasn't worn a jockstrap. You have been in a locker room, and you have worn a jockstrap. Their point was, oh, you have to face the team if you go for two and you miss it. That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

Right, yeahs, that's pretty dumb. I mean, yeah, I think you said it best. Why face Patrick Mahomes for another quarter? I mean that game and how it played out. As a head coach, you hadn't stopped Kansas City in the red zone all game. I mean they were perfect in the red zone. And by the way, Tampa was perfect in the red zone too, right, So you got to feel that out. I think managing the game, as you call a defense, that's tough to do. I mean, I think that the most talented guys are head coaches and play callers at the same time. But I would rather have a head coach take off that headset and manage the game and understand the situations and the way that Baker went down the field, the confidence that they had, the energy that they were playing with. Just go ahead and solidify a victory right there with the two point conversion.

Yeah, And to Will's point, because I did a whole thing on this on the radio sete where it's like, I agree with you, Will, I think the bigger issue was calling the time out at thirty because obviously we have no evidence to suggest that Patrick Mahomes can matriculate the ball down the field quickly, right, We can't think of any games where that happened. So maybe that did change it a little bit by making the first gaff. Maybe it was two wrongs don't make it right. But I will say this also, this is not for anybody listening who thinks this is sort of armchair quarterbacking. As they were matriculating, As the Bucks were matriculating the ball down the field. Remember I texted the group, I'm like, are they going to go for two?

Todd was the first one of me. He's like, oh, absolutely, they're going for two right, like, by the way question, and.

I knew they were going to do it just to screw my middle chance. I thought, they know I have Keeps minus three, they know I have Tampa plus seven and a half. They're not going to let this happen so I can get a middle So of course they're going to go for two.

And by the way, different chat I was to say, it must have been a different chat. I didn't think he was going to go for it. Bulls is just known for being very conservative.

Well, I'm just saying it was obvious that you should to me go for two. And by the way, I didn't want him to go for two. I was hoping that he would kick. When he kicked the extra point, I was overjoyed. I couldn't believe that he actually did it, but I was just like, how could you not?

And by the way, twenty seven seconds in a pouring By the way, I agree with you one hundred percent of the time out, but even twenty seven seconds with them in the pouring rain is a different story.

Mahomes, I know made it.

In thirteen seconds in the playoffs, but in that game, twenty seven seconds in that pouring rain was it was gonna be tough for the Chiefs to get the field, So to me, it was like a no brainer.

But I'm so glad he didn't do it.

But yeah, he almost threw two picks, by the way, to think two different times in the final sequence, can I.

Suggest one more? Can I nominate one more dumble over the weekend?

It's not a coach, And it's kind of ironic to say this because not only did he have the greatest play of the week, but he.

Might have had on market.

Yeah, one of the great plays of all time with that backwards hurdle, which I've never seen on any level of football ever, Like, is just mind boggling, boggling play. But the announcers kind of let this slide. It was the Eagles. I want to get the exact sequence here. It was the Eagles twenty eight the Jaguars twenty three, and the Eagles had the ball with under four minutes left. They had a second and thirteen at the Jacksonville forty eight and Saquon as he was doing all game, was having a great play. He had went for nine yards to the right and he could have easily gotten right to the sticks. Instead, he prioritized keeping the clock going over, getting the first down, and he slides, and of course then he gets stuffed on third and four, and then Sirianni rolls out Elliott for a fifty seven yard field goal try, which he misses.

So Jacksonville gets the ball back down five with two eleven left, and they got it all the.

Way to the thirteen before Trevor Lawrence did the Trevor Lawrence thing and overthrew Dernest Johnson and it was picked by Nikobe Dean and the Eagles survived.

But that Saquon slide was.

Like, he's so insane?

What was he doing? I totally forgot about that one, because as soon as it happened, I was screaming on the text to everyone, what is he doing?

You get, first of all, there's no such thing as keeping the clock going on when you have when you're gonna have a third and four, that's not a thing. You have to get a first down and then you get fall down. There's no such thing as.

Falling down second in thirteen gaming nine? What are you talking about? I don't even understand what he's doing. What he's doing, And the announcers just let it go. They like said something briefly and then they just moved on. But it was it was it could have erased everything about that game in all of his performance, like it was that.

You know, I will say this, guys in the league is still the same way we work so hard on two minute offense, meaning we need to go score to win. We don't work that hard on foreman in offense, right, and foreman in offense is when you're trying to cement the game. And that that's something that you know when you witnessed and watch these games. If you want to pocket, put that in your pocket. I mean, it's rare that teams will work on four mian in offense. If you get some information that teams are really solid with four minute offenses, and then okay, teams know how to win, go out and go out and win a football game. But more times than not, we're working on two minute offense to go get that final score. So those little things right there that can cause you a victory, they can come back to hanty and we've seen sa Quan fumbled the ball at in critical moments too, So I mean those things kind of we're as ugly ahead from time to time. But I think That's a vital piece of information to know if you want to keep.

That in your pocket.

And I as to follow up question about that, Britch, because you say you guys work on two minute offenses, and we as fans and as better as we always hear that kind of thing.

I'm curious you've had multiple coaches college and then prove you've had multiple coaches, were there some who did it far better than others? In other words, was the repetition enough on working on something like a two minute offense enough that a high enough percentage of players on your team got it and sunk in? And were there some coaches were like, man, if we get into this situation, we are not prepared. Yeah.

Absolutely.

I think coach Shanahan, Mike Shanahan was for two minute offense, Mike home Grinto up in Seattle. I mean, it was something that was such a situation in the game and uh, that that we needed to work on and certainly get better at, get better with and uh and you become potent that way. I mean, at any moment you can go out there and get in two minute offense. I mean Jim Kelly made a career that up there in Buffalo Uh, and it helped him become Hall of Fame and bealance with you. So I think in Atlanta, you know, we were so undisciplined fellas that that you know, if we did two minute offense, it was it was probably spurred the moment right at that point. But we we definitely didn't work on four minute offense submitting a football game. But no, I think two minute offense is just one of those critical situations, uh, that that.

Team's focus on a lot.

Uh, and they forget, like I just mentioned other aspects of the game or other situations.

Of the game.

You mean to suggest that Jerry Glanville wasn't completely buttoned up. That sounds shocking more.

I thought he was entertaining non professional.

Coaching.

He's like coaching D three or something somewhere right now, I think. So, I think, I.

Know, I know.

What is I'm sorry, but since we have you, we don't usually have someone who actually played in the NFL on with us. So I just want to take this opportunity. Is there something and I apologize for the open ended question. You haven't prepped for this question, but is there something that you hear not necessarily just us betters, Maybe it's us, but like mainstream media talking about football, where it drives you crazy because we have no understanding of it whatsoever. Maybe it's something Maybe it's like we assume something is more prepared than than it is, or.

Maybe it's just something we fundamentally don't get about the game. Is there something that leaps to mind?

Well? We you know, I think so.

I mean, we we do armshare quarterbacking a lot, right, And I think what what needs to be said is that it's game planning more and more so than anything, and a lot of times teams have the wrong game plans and then that's that's when you see guys throwing tablets and stuff like that on the sidelin, right, because the game plan sucks and we worked all week on this game plan and it stinks, right, and that's when things are frustrated. But you know, you go back to play calling a lot of times, and we all do that.

I still do that.

But to me, it's more about they did they didn't work on the right game plan and you can see that early on too, and but can they get to adjustments right? So I al would say the game is about seventy percent adjustments because you get into this part of the season. Your tendencies are all out there. The cut ups of every situational opportunity that's you had on the field is for your opponent and they've studied that right. So if your game plan is not fine tune, it's not supreme, then all of a sudden, now what are you going to do? What can you get to you? And so the teams that can get to so many other adjustments with personnel or with style of play on both sides of the ball that comes to the surface, and that that's what gets frustrating too sometimes when when you know armchair quarterbacking wants to specifically blame this or specifically blame that.

Yeah, I could see that.

By the way, greatest adjuster of all time Todd Joe Jackson, Gibbs and very long. But the only thing that I would I would follow up with is I totally get what you're saying and I and I totally get the adjustments part of it.

Do you do you understand why those of us who.

Are better, because I really do, put betters over most fans because we're we're trying to think about every little thing when we're.

You know, when money is on the line.

Do you understand why the clock management stuff at the end of halves and games particularly frustrate us?

And is there really is there really a chasm between a game plan? Is one thing?

Right?

And we get it.

We don't know x's and o's as much as coaches, even though Todd always says like if you give them two or three years, it'll be the best court.

But like the a year and a half with proper film study, and that was gonna be my next point, But you go ahead and ask Pretcher thing and then I'll say what I want to say.

Okay, okay, because I mean it is your podcast.

The the clock, the clock stuff at the end, is it as is it as ridiculously bad as we make it out to be, Like how can they not know this stuff?

Well, it's it's bad because of the stress of everything, like like like I mentioned that the game plan is not going according to plan.

You know, then all of a sudden in the headsets you get.

There's there's chaos, there's yelling, there's stream and there's sowing things, there's frustration, the just cussing each other out. I mean, there's all kinds of emotion on the sideline, and therefore, you know, those kind of decisions get lost, those critical moments get lost, and you'd like to have an analytics guy, you have to.

You like to have a.

Clock management management person too, but you can switch them off if you're stressed out because you can't get a first down, or or your defense is given up too many yurs or or things that.

You worked on all week is not working.

So it's emotional, right, And I don't know, there's very few guys out there from a head coaching standpoint that can remove that emotion of the game on the sideline and make a sound decision and be consistent with it. And that's the challenge or betters to say, Okay, wait a minute, if are these guys capable of doing that? Now, if if you find coaches that are capable and consistent making sound decisions, okay, they can handle the emotion right, And that's an edge.

Period, there's an as an edge for you.

But but like you just said, Todd, if there are people out there that cannot do that it, cannot handle it, that are too emotional, then they're going to make an emotional decision and panic at times critical moments.

Of the game.

That's why the CEO head coach like Tomlin who gets it at the end like, that's why that's probably underrated. I'm sorry, tom No.

I just want to say one thing, Football, much like life, is the most not We're not getting to see the real story. Okay, this is what I mean. And you can see that. For instance, when I texted you those Twitter films by Chase Daniel. Pritcher's the guy Chase Daniel, that backup quarterback for many years. He does like he does breakdowns on Twitter videos of the plays and what the quarterbacks seeing where he's supposed to go. This is choice one, Choice two, choice three, choice four. When we watch football, we don't really see what's going on. Of all the sports, basketball, you can see the guy's picking, he's rolling, he's a baseball we see, but bus soccerwn.

In football, everything is obscured.

All we see is the guy goes back to pass.

The rush is coming now the throw we don't even know if he's open until the ball gets there. You don't really see the game. However, when you watch the All twenty two stuff, like I bring up that Chase Daniel stuff because that's what I was watching last week. It's so much different. It's the real game. You get to see.

Here's what Jaden Daniels is seeing and why he's making decision to throw to this guy short on the left instead of this guy down the hash. It's because this safety is rolling over a little took two steps this far and he sees it right. And then you also get like I saw him do a breakdown Chase Young, and he's got the same thing and he shows, Okay, Chase, why didn't you throw here? The hash is wide open? He makes the wrong decision.

Now all we get to see is the thing at the end Chase through an incomplete or through an interception. We don't see that there was a play that Jaden Daniels made or Chase Young made because of a horrible decision that you can clearly see on the film that we don't see at all.

And we watched he we watched these football games. I've watched a football games. We don't usually get to see that stuff. And if you do see it, I think you would have a huge advantage. Yeah.

You know what's interesting, Todd, is the reason why we don't is because of instant replay.

Because they have so many.

Cameras in the stadium and they want to show they can show all twenty two. We know that they can show that game, and I mean it would it would dramatically change the game as viewers we watched it that way, But then where would we replay go?

Right?

And and and the sponsorships of all that. It's it's all about money really, But you're absolutely right. It is frustrating. But knowing you can see pre snaps sometimes when when teams are going to rotate coverage or whatever, but not knowing the play call, you know, in a huddle, that kind of gets difficult too.

But no, you're you're one thousand percent right.

I wish they would do it, But knowing the reasons, why is it all goes back.

To replay a couple even if we had watched the tape though, like top Todd, Gil, like anyone that hasn't played a high level, even if he had watched the tape. Man, unless you're explaining to us, like what the coverage is, what the protection and there's a lot of moving parts, Like I wouldn't be able to just sit there and watch it. Would it'd probably be helpful if it would be very helpful if somebody was pointing out to me, you know the different uh like coverages and this guy got beat on his block, things like that. But unless you're unless you're really educated, man, I don't know that watching it, would it would even be that much for help unless you're getting helped.

Tom Brady, if you God, no, I.

Was saying, Tom tom Brady, his frustrations.

Tom Brady was saying, was he got, he would get mad at announcers, just so you were talking about Will, he would get mad at announcers because they would go after the quarterback for you know, making this horrible decision once you know, post snap, and Tom Brady would be like, that's not even football. What the real analysis is is that that quarterback should have realized pre snap that he should have never run that play in the first place, right, Like, And so that's the kind of stuff you were saying, Well, that's the kind of stuff we would never get, but we would.

But we would get.

We wouldn't get one hundred percent, like Will saying, I agree with him one hundred percent.

We wouldn't get at all, but we would get way more than we do now.

We would have so much more.

You can a lot of the stuff that Chase Daniels is showing you is not that complicated, it really is it. It's it's okay, here's your read. You've got to look at the safety. If he's going to roll to the left, two steps, you're going down the scene. If he doesn't roll to the left, you're.

Going to you know.

But that's what Tom Bray saying. If you were a masterclass elite like Brady, you would see just in the alignment, like, oh, this play that we have, I shouldn't even snap it on this right. I got an audible out of this.

Well, that's the next level. That's even the next level, Gilly. You know.

It also has to do with but to give you just a real life example of it, Peter King, remember the famous writer Peter King, mister Football Monday Monday Morning Quarterback.

He used to be a Giants beat report. I think I've told this story before.

When the Sloan Sports Analytics Come Reference was going on MIT back in the day when I used to go. I was a little Pischer, you know, Skins fan, and he famously as a Giants beat reporter never voted for Art Monk to go into the Hall of Fame. Art Monk took in nine years to get in the Hall of Fame when he graduate. When he retired, he had the most receptions in the history of the NFL, but to him nine years to get in.

So, I, you know, was all upset about. I go up to Peter King.

I worked at my courage and I'm like, do you think if you had all twenty two footage you would have actually voted Art Monk into the Hall of Fame because you would have seen that he's getting double team the entire time, which is allowing Gary Clark and Ricky Sanders to do their thing right. And he thought about it. He was like, you know what, you might be right. Maybe I would have.

So it's like.

Even things like that, right, it determines like who gets into a Hall of Fame and when maybe for some people like So that's to your point, Todd.

It's the whole game and we don't see any of it. We're just following a ball on TV.

And I thought that story was going to end with Peter King soaking you in the face or something. I didn't know where that was going.

Peter Kings knocked me in the face. Yes, this is.

Why I said it would take me a year and a half to become the best offensive quarterator, not six months. I'd have to watch the film for at least a year and a half to figure the whole thing out. Now, at that point, for sure, I would be. But I'm not saying overnight or in six months, because there's a lot to know.

Doesn't Tomlin live down the street from you? Can't you go? Just ask him if you can get a job done?

Art Smith?

Art Smith lives a couple of blocks away, and Tomlin lives a couple of blocks away over there. I mean I could, but then it would require me put giving up on the megapod.

We'd be back to professionalism, no entertainment.

What are we gonna do?

I think you would have been a better coordinator for Pittsburgh last year than who they had.

I can't last year?

Canada?

Was it?

Canada?

Canada? Canada?

Oh my god? Canada?

All right?

Which brings us to Thursday night football. Can one really really short in game thing for you real quick?

I'm sorry, Peo.

The Ravens. The Ravens have thirty eight points. They're winning thirty eight to ten. Late third quarter. The books are getting much much smarter now, guys much smarter. In the past, you might have seen forty five or forty five and a half as their team total at that point. No, they're getting smarter. They're gonna put it at forty four and a half. But it was plus one oh five to the under, okay, So they're basically saying, if you want to take the under, which we know you want to, we're gonna make you sweat a little bit, because forty four and a half is only six and a half more points for the Ravens. However, there's only a minute left in the third quarter and it's thirty eight ten in an NFL game, So I'm taking under forty four and a half because anytime the Ravens have the ball in the fourth quarter, it's gonna be a lot of run, run, run, punt. Maybe get the first down, usually get a field goal. Okay, they're not going to get the touchdown. Sometimes you're gonna lose because Derek Henry will break one. But it's not college. They're gonna run the ball and they're usually going to punt the ball. So I took the under forty four and a half. It went exactly as planned. The Ravens did get one nice drive where they got down, but they did kick the field goal. It's now forty one to ten, and the only way you lose is if BOONEX throws you a pick six. So you know, I bring it up just so that people who like this in game late stuff. In the NFL, they're not going to give you a full touchdown on the team total when a team's winning big, but it still can be a very good bet because that whole fourth quarter, no team leading is trying to score a touchdown.

That's a good point.

It's a good point yesterday in a college football game with Ohio, though they did put it over seven right like when they were laid in a blowout.

Well it's called you're talking about the full game, but it's the same idea of Gilly. I take your appointment. But in college you do see the break. You know, the guy runs for eighty five yards at the end of the game. It does happen.

In pros.

The only person who doesn't fall down anymore at the end is Naj Harris. Naj Hair wants to get a touchdown. Everybody else knows if you get the first down.

Just falled out. Not Naji Harris.

So you might, but he's not going to score it, right, Tod No, we exactly.

We went to the reason I say this, We went. We got free tickets from one of the sportsbooks to go to the brown Steelers game, the last Roethlisberger game, and we were in the Luxury Ball. This is when I just had started re eating again, and they had the most delicious pizza of all time in that goddamn box. But we had the We had the Browns and the Plus and we were all set up. We were all set up and not and Steelers had the ball. They're just going to run it out.

It's there at the like.

Forty yard line and Naji Harris breaks one and I'm like, Naji, you're supposed to fall down.

He doesn't fall down, touchdown. We lose.

And by the way, he did.

The same thing this year in the in the game thirty to fifteen against the Jets, with like a minute left, he did the same thing and scored again.

This guy wants to get his touchdowns. So that's another thing to remember on in game.

If the Steelers have the ball late, be careful because now as you might try to break one.

Not reheating reeating, Yes, is when I went from one ninety five back to an inflated three twenty.

Unfortunately you what are you rocking right now? Tody? Three twenty? Thanks Gil, thanks for bringing it up. Yeah, we'll hoping for the best anything on Thursday Night football tonight. The Ravens are six six and a half point favorites at home against the Bengals tonight. It's actually six pardon me, six point favorites, with the total now all the way up to fifty two and a half. Anything on this one, I have one, I have.

This is one of my picks.

I do two.

Okay, So once you go.

First, I am going to play the under fifty two and a half in this game.

That's what I was going to do too.

I'll do it.

Go ahead, go ahead, I might sitch now, go.

Ahead, No, don't switch just because I'm doing it first. Tell us first why you like it. Then I'll decide I will do it. And I want to shout out again.

There's a gentleman at Action Network who does great Thursday night football stuff by the name of Sean Corner, and he puts together some great stuff. One of the things on these is we've done really well when I've bet these Thursday night games no.

T Higgins tonight, Lamar Jackson's knee.

We don't really know what the story is, and the Bengals also might not have their standout offensive lineman Orlando Brown. Here's the deal with handicapping. You want to try to determine what is sustainable what is not sustainable. Both the Bengals and the Ravens are at the top of the league when it comes to red zone touchdown percentage. That is a metric that is often influenced by luck and is prone to regression. So just to give an example again, the Saints, which we don't think of as a good offense, their top five in red zone touchdown percentage. The Packers and Niners are at the bottom of the league, bottom five in red zone touchdown percentage. So you got to figure these things tend to regress to the center on it not having Orlando Brown. By the way, Bengals last four weeks they scored forty one points against the Raiders, but that was because they got the ball twice because of Raiders turnovers inside the Raiders red zone. The weeks before that, seventeen points against the Giants, twenty one against the Browns seventeen against the Eagles. When they don't have Orlando Brown, everything is decreased seven.

Point eight yards per attempt with Brown out from Burrow six point one excuse me, seven point eight when he's in six point one yards per attempt when he's out, and the run game also affected. It goes from four point five yards per rush with Brown three point eight without him. Higgins absence Burrow eight point zero yards per dropback with Higgins five point five yards per attempt without him. Jamar Chase gets double team.

So it's a compounding thing other side of the ball, even though the Ravens, the Ravens won't again, they don't have Isaiah Likely, we don't know if Lamar's knee is okay. And yes, they'll go to Derrick Henry a lot, and we love Dereck Henry. But the Bengals still do have good numbers when it comes to initiating contact early, so that could mitigate the Henry thing a bit. So you put all that in the mix. To me, this is an under while this while this number keeps getting higher and higher, So I'm going under Bengals Ravens Tonight fifty two and a half, stick with it, don't change it.

No, I got I'm going to change because I don't want to do I want to get. I want to get much more ahead of you.

So I don't know. I'll just say you're leaving me an opening is what you're doing, it's not.

Actually that's fine. I feel my offense is better than your defense. Good go, let's preach. Does anybody else have anything for a Thursday? And nobody has a pick? But I willy, I think you have thoughts on it. You think the Ravens are going to win right.

Now. I've been back and forth on this. I last time these teams played a month or so ago, I was, I gave out the over, then I switched to something else, and of course the over sailed over in the something else lost, So I was going to play the over. Then I saw what it was and I was like, man, I kind of like, that's just a lot of points to get in the NFL.

So I don't know.

I just see a scenario. I do think the Ravens are gonna win. I just see a scenario where the Ravens are up maybe like ten late, and Bengals are driving with the ball to either get a back door. Now, these teams, as we've seen, that's another thing we're talking about. They kick the field goal a lot earlier once they get in a field goal rangs. These teams are catching on. Hey, I need two scores. Let me get the field goal out of the way right away.

I don't know.

Burrow seems to play up to competition in these games. They play up and down to their competition. He's good as a dog. You can move the ball in Baltimore. I'm just I don't know. I'm terrified of fading these Baltimore teams. So I'm sitting this one out. I think the line is about what it should be.

Yeah, it's kind of interesting because I think about identity the Ravens on the pass run ratio, there's seventy third and that see me. The Bengals are seventy thirty pass run ratio, where you have the Ravens over fifty percent running the.

Football, which means you can get to so much other things.

Right Whereas if you're so committed to the passing game, the Ravens are going to as without t Higgins out there, they're going to double chase. It's going to be such a different game than it was previous. Like you mentioned Will, that game we saw Week five, so I think the Ravens had the advantages here in this one.

Under is interesting because I've never really been a total better.

I've been burned on betting totals time and time again.

But I can see your points, so that you made their guilt.

Yeah, I just feel with it with Higgins out the double because you're right the first game, Chase had ten catches and two touches and touchdowns, and I think Higgins had nine catches and two touchdowns. But all of a sudden, you take one off the field and you get to double team. It's a whole different calculus. It's a big game beyond just that handicap. It's a big game for a lot of things tonight. The Bengals to have a shot at the division, the Bengals to make the playoffs, right, because they're what are they four and five?

Now?

Burrow for you know awards like Will was talking about maybe a long shot Offensive Player of the Year. Shots was on a numbers game. You actually talking about Burrow for Comeback Player of the Year. So there's a lot of other stuff that's on the line.

Tonight.

What about the stiller in the division in that, Well, us Pittsburgh guys down here, we're having a huge season and YenS aren't even acknowledging it.

You's think that you're like some kind of Ravens lover like that thing. Don't even have any defense in that. You think that we're nothing down here. You're looking down at us and we're we're the kind of like city and club that's gonna punch you in the math. So watch yourself in the math in the math.

Club. That is the weirdest part about that accent club. All right, best bets for Week ten in the NFL. Pritch, what is your number one? Sir?

Well?

Ironically, Todd, I mean, I've been on the Steelers all year. Before the season even started, I was high on the Steelers. I think a lot of people shied away from them because of the schedule, right, but look how schedules playing out. I mean, I think last year when you saw the fact that you know, the Steelers win in that division, the toughest division of football, without a great offense coordinator, without a quarterback, and was still competitive five to one within a division. You know, this matchup against the commanders. It's an outlier situation for me with what Washington's doing. A crazy job, a great job so far with Quinn, and they're going to add a lot of more. They think that they can win that division, which is all good. And Daniels has been spectacular. He's been probably better or out better than c J scouts last year. CJS was so good last year, but he's been incredible. But he's not facing defense like this. And I think what Tomlin has done pushing buttons on key guys, namely Russell Wilson, meaning the other guys in the locker room are going to follow this guy. And he's truly a leadership type of situation at quarterback.

I think Steelers are going to click.

My best bet right there is get catching these points against the upstart Commanders on the road.

Can I can I jump into?

Yeah?

Yeah? Can I jump in?

Because because me and Pritch are OPO here, so I want to jump in, And it also gives me the.

To say It also gives me the opportunity to say, hey, hey, well on. It also gives me the opportunity to say, princh.

Please, I'd like to go.

I'd like to go into my professionalism for a moment and say everything that you will now hear should be disclaimrized because there is a person who's going to pick the commanders, who has a little bit of a rooting interest in the commanders.

Thank you and listen, we'll just say this.

For my entire career, I have made a career going against them, right, being a defeatist Washington.

So maybe the pendulum has swung.

I want to I do want to acknowledge what what is saying, which is talking about sustainable and unsustainable? Nine games Washington forty two point five yards per drive on average. That is the most per average drive through the first nine games of any NFL season for any team ever, not for a rookie quarterback, for any team ever.

Can they sustain that? Maybe?

Here's the part that's probably unsustainable. They only have three turnovers through nine game.

That cannot be sustainable, right, Jadan Daniels only with two picks.

The other thing is they only have nineteen punts through nine games. Nineteen punts. Tressway does not see the field. The Raiders have nineteen turnover the Skins have nineteen punts. So there is to Mike's point, there is you know, like, can they possibly do this every week? No, at some point it's got to change in Pittsburgh. Is a bit of a step up in competition, but I think it's a really interesting one because it's not going to the ultimate elite level in the NFL. Remember they tried that once. Baltimore beat him by a touchdown. So the Skins are probably like you know, right about the eighth best team in the NFL is right around there too.

It's less than three. I guessed four on guessing lines on Monday. As long as this is less than.

Three, I'm going with the kid, baby Jaydon Daniels, who makes no wrong decisions ever.

Give me the Skins minus two and a half.

I bet him twenty.

I bet him twenty two to one to win the Super Bowl this week before Latimore.

There you go, Yeah, Latimore, lot of We're probably not playing in this game.

By the way, I'm not saying in the super Bowl. I'm just saying, what if they in the championship game? No, but if they get to the NFC championship game, I can hedge out and make money either way. Will you know a little bit about that?

Trying to make the NFC Championship is not the super Bowl, though. It's a different thing, altogether different game, is it.

I don't know if you know about what about the WNBA Conference Championship and finals, anything you wanted to.

Say about that one player in the WNBA Todd what was her name that you love so much?

What's her name?

Oh?

The one the one that it Wally hates because Djanee Carrington.

I don't hate anybody, I just hate the.

Yes. Yeah, okay, let's not go down that road.

Okay.

So it's my first pick, right because you already did too, Gilly and preaching it to me. Okay, So I'm gonna go with my first pick, and I'm gonna go with a little team I call the New York g Man. What do you guys have there? Minus six and a half?

Yeah, minus six and a half. Good luck to you, n y g minus six and a half.

Okay, let me just tell you something a little something about the New York g Men.

They're not that bad.

Okay.

They played the Steelers, straight up. They played the Redskins were also in the game.

Prior to that.

They've played a lot of other teams that they've been in the game. Day Ball He might not be the.

Best coach in the NFL, but I think he's pretty decent. This team is not that bad. They can run football with that Tracy Junior kid. You know this is not a bad team. I love neighbors. Okay, there's a lot that this team can do. On the other side of the ball. The Carolina Panthers just what I would say, proverbially shot their load. Okay, they won their one game finally, twenty three, twenty two.

Okay, this is not a foot Sorry, Pritch, I apologize for the professional Yes, that's jap thou Carolina.

We've watched Carolina all year. It's not a professional football team. We all know that they played the Saints and they found a way to squeak out a win. Of course, every team in the NFL is going to get a couple covers every year. There's no team that's not going to cover h to sixteen. Even the worst ones are gonna have four or five covers. And Carolina's gonna have four or five covers as well this year, probably maybe three, at least three.

And they had won this past week against the Saints. Everything fell right for him. Now, the Saints are not a.

Real football team either. I'm not impressed with their defense at all. The Giants are a huge step up, a huge step up. Now everyone's gonna be huffing fumes down in Carolina.

Oh, we won a game where we're no, we're not the worst ever.

Blah blah blah blah blah.

Okay, come back to earth and let's get a typical Carolina performance twenty seven to ten Giants and lets everyone go back to the drawing board. Okay, so let's chill it. Giants minus six and a half.

How about that game being in Munich? Enjoy the Giants and Panthers Munich, Germany.

Joy will what you got?

I'm gonna go Jacksonville Jaguars plus the seven here?

Do you know Mac Jones is the quarterback?

By the way, You do know that, right, I do know that. And I just think this is a complete overreaction. You're moving the line three points off of Lawrence. Lawrence has played terribly this season. You're starting to see Sam darnoald regress. He threw some bad interceptions the other night. Again, it's the Colts, you know, hasn't played great this last month or so. And boy, you're talking about a Viking team.

Are we really?

Are they really in that territory now where you got to win by two scores on the road against the Jags team. Okay, they've played badly, but they were in that game last week. This is still a team. I mean before the season they were both. I mean, I think the Jags were supposed to win eight and a half games. The Viking's supposed to win six and a half games. Now you're laying seven on the road. I know things have changed, but man, just feels like an overreaction. I don't think Lawrence has played that well. So Jones is at least like a decent backup. I know he was bad last year, but he's had some good moments in the league. I'll take the seven here with the Jags.

Wow, going up against his Vikings. It should be noted.

Will Hill, so now Will gets to go again because you already did two picks.

I'll go to another lovely endeavor here. I will take the Saints plus three and a half against the Falcons. These teams played in Week four, the line was two, and now we're three and a half. When we switching venues. I know the Saints, you know the trading guys, and guys are hurt. But in that game, in that first meeting, Atlanta won by two. They didn't cover and the Saint Town gained them in Atlanta, two of their touchdowns were non offensive. Remember it was the punk fumbled in the end zone, recovered for a touchdown, and then there was a pick six. These games were always close. I get the uh, you know, the fire the fire coach bumped from Dennis Allen, who my goodness, I was shocked when he got fired, just to find out that he was still a head coach the NFL. I don't know what took so long for them to fire him. His tenure with the Raiders and the Saints both disasters. I just think these games are always close. I think this line's an overreaction. I could see Atlanta. Who's not that? I mean, what are they playing for? They've clinched the division pretty much, They're in good shape. I think this is just like a field goal game. I will take the points here with the New Orleans Saints.

I kind of liked that one too.

Willy, who's next? On you?

Me?

And then Pridge gets too Okay, I am going to take what do you guys have for the Tampa Bay game, both side and.

Total please side and showed till.

Yeah, exactly mostly six and fifteen and a.

Half, six and a half I'm seeing and a half.

I'm gonna go with up, up and over fifty and a half in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game. Here's the thing. I think Tampa Bay is the ultimate over team this year. They move the ball. You look at their scores. They move the ball relentlessly, even without wide receivers. They throw to Aughton and by the way, that was another one. They threw to Auton three times. Uh and they had him up in late in the second quarter six and a half receptions plus one ten. I was like, are you kidding me to throw to Aught in every freaking down? So I took that when it easily won. But even with posts, it is the past post. Even without the wide receivers, they're still moving the ball. Fucky Irving moves the ball. They just figure out somebody else to throw it to. And Baker is great at throwing picks to the other team to give up points that way. They're just like a great points machine.

They played the Chiefs last week, a team that is like a dead undernuts team, and it still went over in the rain. So I mean, there's just nothing that can keep this Tampa Bay team from going over. Even the guy fumbles the ball before he runs over the touchdown line and they and they decide, oh no, we.

Don't have a view. We don't have a view to knock it out. He clearly fumbled, but whatever, they still gave him a touchdown. Because it's a Tampa Bay game, you have to give points, and so basically I.

Just think, yes they did.

They gave him the touchdown because they gave him a touchdown.

They gave it to them. It was clearly wait, no, the pitch one. They gave him a touchdown.

Right.

It was a Tampa game, right, But wasn't there a who was the guy that didn't That was a different game.

I'm thinking the guy was the.

Jets game the Jets. Yes, So so anyway, there.

Was a giant Seahawks won too. Remember they called it a fumble six instead of where he was it looked like he crossed the goal line.

Yeah.

But anyways, the point is Tampa Bay. Now you're going up against San Francisco forty nine ers. They're gonna score a billion against Tampa I don't even know if they make a scoreboard high enough, they're gonna just score their asses off against Tampa, and Tampa's gonna help you and get points too.

So it's it's just a juicy, juicy over festival, like almost every Tampa Bay game this year. Give me over fifty and a half and the final score thirty four to twenty. Thank you, Wow, passionate Christian McCaffrey.

Christian McCaffrey will be playing, according to reports, for the Niners.

I don't even need them.

What do you think of that?

I don't even need him. He can sit it out.

I'll still with file Shanahan saying that publicly it will be a game time decision. It sounds like, uh, he's gonna play rich before you give your two per or two picks. Here, I am a total unprofessional host football contest show, which you do with some of our favorite people. You do it with Brady Cannon, you do it with our guy James Salinas, who we love. Is also was it Kelly and Vegas is on here as well. You're doing all of that, Yeah, every week.

Kelly filled it.

When I was on my trip last week for my birthday, I went on a Yeah, so Kelly filled in, did a great job, and yeah, it's been going well. I mean we're in the middle of the pack, you know, as a team, and it's the dynamic of being on a team and a contest show is interesting, especially you know, James has won the Contest, the Super Contest, Brady has been part of a team and won the Super Contest as well, and James also top top three finish finisher as well. So the dynamic has been interesting. I'm learning a ton from these guys. But we're having a blast with it. You know, we got knocked out a survivor like fourteen thousand other people, but that was okay. The experience was pretty cool. But certainly with Contest and Millions, uh, we're holding our own in the pack and hopefully about to assert ourselves in the second half of the season.

The Millions thing is interesting because you guys are a team and the three of you have in common that you are the nicest guys in the world. I'm curious like that, how do you if you have a disagreement, does everybody back down at the same time?

Does it ever get fisty at all?

You know what, we have a pre show meeting and those they're not feisty. The pre show meetings are not fiighty that went around there is it's respect it's respectful, right, Like we'll disagree respectfully, but we're in a nice manner.

I guess that's the best way.

To categorize this show, is what you're saying.

Exactly. That's right, right.

I mean we're all champions, right, I mean we can all wear rings and stuff like that, but we don't do that, right, We don't want to do that. But no, it's been humbling in terms of, you know, coming with the acumen and coming with points of view and certainly having it respected.

But we think it's going well.

First year we're doing it and but we're our results. I mean, we need to pick it up though, Like I said, second half of the season.

Okay, Las Vegas Football Contest show part of Sports Grid, correct, part of Sports Grid.

Yeah, they're airing it on on their network and certainly you can catch it from wherever you find your podcasts.

There you go, all right, your your other two picks, sir.

Yes, sir, you know I want to go appo will because of uh, can you name the interim head coach and in New Orleans.

I don't know what it is.

Guy who is likesy or something.

I mean, Dennis Allen. The only reason why Derek Carr was there is because of Alan right And.

And nobody likes Derek Carr. Nobody, And I mean even on the team. It's like it's so dysfunctional down there.

Now.

I have been burned so many times betting the NFC South and and but I think Kirk Cousins is liked and I think Kirk Cousins has been an answer for this Atlanta Falcons team.

Uh. And you're seeing some young.

Players on that roster, they're they're not mentioned that uh that highly. You know you're talking about London Uh and Pitts and Robinson. I mean, these guys are our lead players.

Uh.

And certainly I think from a rivalry standpoint, that's gone. We're back to seeing the eights. I think Raheem Morris, Uh, he can do a lot better as a head coach, and maybe he will, but he has those guys playing hard, and those guys are playing physical too, especially running the football. I think when you are the Saints and you don't have anything to play for other than perhaps your jobs, but do you really want to stay down there in New Orleans in the first place.

This team can fold up that tent. So I like Atlanta on the road.

I know it's a bad number delay, but I like it the situation with four points right there for the Falcons.

The other one, okay, yeah, I saw four.

I'll take the three and a half and then the other one.

You know, the Denver Broncos have been fascinating to me, and I just watched the King City Chiefs and I don't know why this is eight points, To be honest with you, guys, I really don't. But you know, with Denver and that defense and Patrick and he's a warrior. We know he's a warrior. I don't know if he says his ankle, it looked more like his need to me, maybe he's trying to get attention away from it. But a week of rehab that that thing is just gonna get more sore. And you just came off a very physical game against Tampa to you, and then Denver's defense, they can keep him in the game. I just need a little bit of offense from Poe Nicks and Sean Payton, and I think we can get that. I think there's some vulnerabilities out there on that Kansas City defense with Spags, and so I'm gonna take the points with the Broncos.

Do you feel like Richard, do you feel like you know?

Because last year, our buddy Aaron Shots has been on this podcast many times. He is a pioneer in football analytics, and last year he had the Ravens and the Niners as two of his best teams of all time. He tracks every play all the way back to nineteen seventy nine. He had the Ravens and the Niners.

Of last year it's two of his top ten of all time.

And then Patrick Mahomes rides in on his cape and none of it matters because he's Patrick Mahomes.

Do you feel like, even though they're undefeated this year and the defense is great, that it's kind of a house of cards or do you feel like Patrick Mahomes is just as capable of riding in on his course or whatever the metaphor is right to just just absolutely hack the entire sport of football again this year.

Yeah, Patrick Mahomes, He's he's a unicorn man. He's uh, He's a guy that is ultimate competitor. I talked to Eric, you and me about this extensively.

Uh And And.

Eric, Eric was a feisty competitor and as a play caller, and certainly with Andy Reid, Andy Reid, you know, his his the way that you see him, he don't. You don't see Andy Reid or perceive Andy Reid to be that competitive, but he's fiercely competitive.

Uh And and Patrick feeds off that.

It's not about the money with this guy, It's not it's just about being dominant.

Uh, It's about this passion for the game.

Uh.

And it's contagious, you know, it's it's not more.

It's not about Patrick to me, Gil and guys, it's it's more about everybody else.

Like everybody else is not on his level, even Kelsey.

Kelsey, when he's mixing it up and trying to block, he's he's going in there with souldiers and he's trying to protect himself and he's not playing like a dog that he's been, uh in the lead for a number of years.

And so on.

Hopkins Bridge, how about Hopkins.

Hop de Hop I think is energized. I mean he's playing with the Hall of Fame quarterback. I mean, next this guy hasn't had that right, but de Hop is fascinating. But you got Patrick Sartan on the other side though, I mean, I for Denver, this matches up very well for them. But your question is specifically Gil he elevates things around him.

Still talking about Patrick.

And that defense, the only thing about that defense is very physical game, and we saw Tampa go up and down the field on him with with second team guys. I just need a little bit of offense for my bet from Denver. I think I'm gonna get a lot of defense. Or where they going to stop Patrick? He hasn't had the best year. They're not going to stop him, But can they slow him down enough to where Kansas City doesn't cover eight points?

I think they can do that kind of job in this matchup.

I buried the headline Where'd you go? On the cruise? Where'd you go?

We went to Grand Turk, We went to the Dominican Republic, and then also we to not saw.

Bahamas, oh man.

We avoided hurricanes, by the way, you know, the week prior, the week prior to our trip, there was some thunderstorms and some some possibilities of hurricanes. And now this week I guess Raphael is going through Cuba. Uh so we kind of avoided some hurricanes as we went on.

That cruise, urch and Caicos water, so Blue Dominican has its own beautiful sites.

If you know what I mean?

What do you mean that?

Whats that so awesome?

And we asked can we ask pritch?

I feel like Andy Reid holds back some of his stuff all the time because and that's why they don't cover these big spreads very often.

I feel like he holds ship back.

He could kill people if he wanted sometimes, and instead he doesn't care who He'll win by seven or something. That's what you're gonna need this week, by the way, because you ain't gonna get any points.

From your boyman Nicks.

But my point is is, do you was that something that you experienced in the league where coaches, like real smart coaches would say, hey, yeah, sure we could blow this team out even more, but let's not use one hundred percent of the game plan. Let's use sixty nine percent of the game plan. Let's leave the other thirty one so that everybody doesn't see everything and we still have more tricks later. Is that something the smart coaches would do?

Yeah?

I think you're on a song there, Tom, I mean, you normally go into the game with a game plan different than your entire playbook. But I think what you're alluding to is that Andy can get to his entire playbook.

Like, well, we'll have, you know.

Twenty five to thirty plays in a game plan, a weekly game plan, right, But if you have sixty five to seventy plays in your entire game plan, your entire playbook, then at any moment, you can get to that.

That's why it looks that way.

But specifically, you want to narrow it down and you want to condense it because you want to be able to execute what you've worked on all week. But the fact that they can get to anything in the playbook makes them that much more dangerous. A lot of teams, a lot of teams don't even have twenty plays in their playbook, and those teams are struggling, right, and you can notice that.

But if teams can get to those twenty.

Five plays or even thirty plays sometimes in a game plan, then that makes them more potent and more dangerous as well in game day. But yeah, Andy Reid, he can get to anything at any moment. They'll even make up plays on the sideline, derivatives off of things that they do based on what he's seen out there on the field throughout the game.

He also like less this is like a small detail, but like he gets the players involved. He lets them call the plays what they want to call the He lets him name it what they want to name it, right, so they like get super invested in you know, oh, it's our bullshit, whatever the hell play?

Remember that ring around the posey?

Yeah, yeah, yeah, No.

They to be honest with you, guys, this is this is Kansas City. So Eric or even Andy Reid, they'll go back in the fifties, uh, and even in the sixties and watch football, right, watch the old film, and they'll come up with plays from those days and implement those into their game plan. But now they'll change it up. They'll they'll dress it up, they'll they'll throw an eye candy and all that. But yeah, it's just a basic belly play or it's a basic off tackle play that you used to see in the fifties or even when they threw the football. Some of the concepts that they use. Uh and in that era, uh, you know, you don't see them all the time. Right, and so the element of surprise is always on the side of Kansas City.

That was like when Belichick let Fluty do the drop kick. Do you remember that?

He was never more animal, he was never more happy on the sideline, He's like.

Oh, throw back, was it?

Todd?

Your last one?

Now my pick then, Willie, I'm gonna go, Willie. What do you got for the Bears line in total?

I am seeing thirty nine for the total?

Billy, what do you see, Gilly? I see.

Mostly six and a half?

Oh yeah, it's it's a it's primarily a six and primarily a thirty eight and a half.

Thirty eight and a half, Okay, I'll take under thirty eight and a half in the Bears game. I am still not impressed with mister Caleb on offense. I don't know if you guys saw that play where he was running around and then DJ Moore just I was like, I didn't know you were allowed to do that.

Back when I had a couple of coffee with the Packers in the late eighties, we weren't allowed to do that, and that was just extremely surprising to me.

I didn't actually play for the Packers.

Was the quarterback back then who was your quarter was Lynn Dickey?

Was Lynn Dickey? But anyways, I was very surprised that you could go and sit down in the middle of a play.

But anyways, that being said, I'm not really impressed with the Chicago Bears offense. I haven't been all year.

I love to be a naysayer on the on the big quarterback guy like Caleb Williams.

I'm always leaning in the way, like, you know, prove it to us before I'm going to get on the jump on the bandwagon. And I have a reason for it. I don't think they're that good just yet. Caleb Bay ends up being a great quarterback, but we've talked about it ad nauseum at USC just ran around and threw it the five star athletes, big deal. You got to watch the film, okay, And I don't believe he's ready on a j Jayden Daniels level doing the film the way Daniels is. I'm sorry, he's just not. So I don't have a great offense with the Bears. The Bears defense outstanding, really really good defense, and I don't see how the Patriots are going to be scoring a ton of points against this Bears defense. So to me, this smells under all over the place. Even if it's twenty eight ten, it still goes under. So I'll take under thirty eight and a half. With the Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots, who are.

Going to just run the ball.

We know that's the Patriots game plan, as Pritch has been talking about game plan and it's been very enlightening all day. I'll tell you what the Patriots game plan is. There's three plays. There's Remondra to the right, Remondra to the left, Remondra.

To the middle.

That's their playbook. So you know, give me under thirty eight a half.

Todd.

I quote you about that Caleb Williams comment you make all the time, like, oh, what did everybody expect? He was throwing a five stars, you know, running around, run around, and his five star wide receiver would eventually get open and he hit him deep. I quote you about that all the time. But Merril Hodge came on a Numbers game before the season, right. Hodge has made some great calls in the past, and he was like nothing. That was his reaction about Caleb Williams.

Mike, when does where.

Does the DJ Moore running off the field mid play rank for you in terms of like NFL no nos, man, it might.

Be up there with h who was a kid in Green Bay that went home, took his ball, went home, didn't practice because he wasn't in the game plan.

Was that dobbs Dobbs Romeo.

That's just happened this year. I mean that that blew me away.

Richard You ever heard of Richardson getting too tired in the middle of the game and saying you want to too?

That's up there too.

But my goodness to stay home and not go to work because you're mad at the That one was an all timer right there. I never heard of that or or never thought I would hear that. But yeah, that was crazy. I mean running off like that. I mean, these guys these days, man, they're so entitled. They're so entitled, right, it's crazy to me.

It is.

We see him broadcasting, Pritch, We see him broadcasting every week. There's a guy on here, makes a ton of money. It's a big shot, professional broadcaster. We see the entitlement on a weekly basis. And then guys like me and Willie who just you know, we're lunch pale broadcasters.

You know, you take the p of it. Yep, Gil never wears his hard hat.

Man.

Thanks the thanks, I get Pritch the thanks, I get the DJ more thing. It's so interesting to hear like an old school player that I was sorry to call you old school. You know, I like it the perspective about today's players. I remember, like, you know, what is it fifteen twenty years ago?

Don't hold me to the number.

But like when when Brian Mitchell, Brian Mitchell is still on the radio in DC, But like when Clinton Portis would run nine yards and then he would go to the sidelines and he would do the oxygen thing. Mitch would kill him on.

The radio all week. They got it this big few. He's like, you just you just ran nine yards.

You really need oxygen.

Leg is be Mitches like I ever. But this is like this is beyond that, right. This is like DJ Moore is so over the play that he just goes, He just goes to his bench. This is amazing. Willie Willy our last words, what do you got?

Will's nothing?

I love.

I was going to take the Texans, but it doesn't look like Nico Collins is gonna play, so I can't get there with with Houston I'm gonna lay the six with San Francisco. I just think this is a get right spot. We've seen this happen with them a couple of times in recent years, where there's just.

WHOA saw your role here? Gilly?

Do you have it at six?

I see game.

Six and a half? I thought it was six.

We do this every weekday, me every six and a half? Six and a half.

Should we give him the six, Willy, Gilly because.

I want I don't want your sympathy point. I'm gonna lay this and a half. Half points never mattered in the NFL anyway, as we.

Know, no man never coming up.

I just think this is a get right spot for them, getting a little healthier. Looks like they're gonna have McCaffrey back. You don't give much of a home field for Tampa. I think, like Todd said, they're going to score probably in the thirties. I just don't know that Tampa can keep up. They've actually San Francis actually played pretty well defensively, so this is I just think this is a get right spot for San Francisco. I'm okay in the points here.

I have actually bet Detroit minus three and was not going to put him in the podcast because they got the three and a half, which is where we are now, and even without Nico Collins, I probably will not do that.

Or wait, Billy, wait, wait, Gilly, did you hear this?

Can you hear wait? Yes, I'm hearing something.

Yeah, okay, Russell, Well send twelve seconds to play the score twenty seven eighteen, the Commanders nine points ahead the Steelers at the twelve yard line play action nase he throws the foremost?

Did he catch out of the way this? Hey, go and gils pick?

I's gonna gout out again.

Prench weeds, you're purple, You're purple. I'm worried about it.

I actually just did that. I did that opposite. I screwed it up. I was trying to go against your pick, and I ended up going against Prince's pick.

Prich.

I do this every week where I do an announced that that that ruins the pick for these guys. In one week, I actually even got it exactly what happened, and I just did it opposite, so that one was terrible. Throw it out.

Sorry, that's all right, I am what is the way? I didn't do it right?

I did do it. My fault I did it right.

You did it right. I don't know what you're talking about. What is the Arizona Jets spread.

Area one and a half? Now Jets by a point.

As gets by a point a half.

So my choice here is do I go with Detroit even though it's gone up to three and a half at Houston, or do I go with my instinct to take the Cardinals.

I'm gonna take the card The Cardinals. Thing is very simple. Number one getting a point a half, I'm getting a point in a half.

I believes here's a very deep dive handicap.

You're ready for this. The Cardinals are just better than.

The Cardinals played a really tough schedule the first half of the year, and I know Kyler Murray does not inspire a lot of trust and confidence on a week to week basis, although he's able to find his fastball if you will often.

But I like the Cardinals.

I think they're like sneaky cut They're like a sneaky good team. And I think the Jets week to week have the most inflated lines in the NFL, meaning they still get this Aaron Rodgers' benefit of the doubt that should not exist and now it's after a game against Houston where Houston didn't have either of the two starting wide outs.

They won't have Digs for the rest of the year. It was a short week obviously. By the way, the first half of that.

Game was the most disgusting display of football ever before. The Jets ended up figuring out a way to win that game. But I felt like that was more just oh, we sort of just my randomness figured out how to win that game kind of thing against the shorthanded Texan team.

I like the Cardinals. I just think they're better. I think the wrong team is favorite.

There you go, Okay, don't all, don't all be's flibbery acid.

Yeah, I just want to.

Say this, Yeah, I will say this.

Garrett Wilson gets his yards and his catches every single week.

Every all the guys when I'm down at the sports book, you know, because they love the props. Everyone's talking to Oh, I got my sixth teamer with my props, and they're all they love. I'm like, who do you got, guys, Garrett Wilson, Baby, Garrett Wilson.

They love Garrett Wilson. And by the way, they're catching every week.

But you know what, I feel like there is this latent pressure for Rogers to hook up with Davante right to a to a point that may not be organic.

Football, throw the ball. Ok, Yeah, so I don't know. I just like the Cardinals here in this game. I just I'm not a Jets guy at all.

And uh, and I'm kind of rooting for the worst.

For them, I know.

So I don't really like Aaron Rodgers do one another truth and I'm all about the Cardinals.

Uh.

Teaser of the week. God helped me pritch two team six point teaser of the week would be Oh.

Boy, the has so many choices for me. I can start tonight with the Ravens on one leg.

I don't know if I want to do that.

I do.

I do want to do the Steelers, though Steelers are fourth courter team. I'm all in this all with the Steelers. I have been betting them all years.

So gosh, this one, there's so many choices of Cardinals. You just mentioned that teasing them. You know, I'm gonna settle in on I'm gonna settle in on the Ravens and the Steelers.

I'm gonna I'm gonna stick with the same division and combo those two teams there and my teaser playing.

All right, Willie, Cardinals or Chiefs.

I have our time seeing the Chiefs lose at home to uh to Bo Nicks, and I think the Cardinals Jet game will be close. If nothing else, you have just just matched mine. I'm a Cardinals Chiefs guy too.

The Chiefs are minus two right Chiefs minus two and the Cards plus seven and a half.

For both of you guys, both of them there too.

I'm gonna go with with two different ones than you guys have. Wait, Chiefs minus two right, Chiefs minus two Chiefs minus toom gonna get it right, Okay, I'm.

Gonna go with the Eagles, the Philadelphia Eagles to beat. I believe the quarterback's not gonna be Dak. It's going to be Cooper.

Right, that's great.

So then, by the way, with Dak, they stink, so they're gonna stink even worse. Now with whoever this other you know, I've seen him actually remember he did pull he pulled one out of his ass a couple of years ago when he was the backup.

But I don't see him pulling one out of his ass this week right right.

Exactly, by the way, the Eagles messed up on the totals, push ones Eagles minus one.

I'm gonna take them as my first leg and as my second leg, I'm gonna take l A Chargers.

Where is that one right there?

Against the Titans minus one and a half, So LAC minus one and a half. To me, this is just harriball football. It's been horriball football all year. Buckle everything down. We're not gonna do anything fancy. We're just gonna run the ball. We're gonna play amazing defense. We're gonna win the games we're.

Supposed to win, and we might steal couple that we might. Well, we're not supposed to win. We're just not going to make any mistakes. We're gonna just grind it out. And this is against the team that is, you know, the Titans. To me is just it's fairly football. I mean, the quarterback is horrible. That everything is just horrible. So give me the Chargers just to win the game minus one.

And a half. It's amazing what a good coach can do, isn't it?

It is amazing? Final two questions. First, is of the big favorites, which is the most likely to lose outright? And we will do six and a half point favorites or higher. So there's gonna be five options.

Giants six and a half point favorites in Munich against the Panthers, Vikings, six and a half or seven point favorites on the road against the jag Wars, also against the jag Wires, Chiefs eight point favorites at home against the Broncos, Niners six and a half point favorites on the road against the Buccaneers, and the Eagles seven point favorites on.

The road against the actless Cowboys. Pritch. Of those five teams, I come to you from the future and I say, one of them lost. Who is it?

Man?

I want to go to the Cowboys.

I do.

They? I don't think they won at home yet.

And you know, dack out you can make a case that there's no more pressure on the Cowboys, but.

They they and suck like Dak talked about, they do they do?

You know?

And you know when you when you think about the Eagles, uh, and you think about what's going on with that team, and they almost blew it right there with the Jags, like you guys were talking about earlier. It's just something says that with Cooper. There's no pressure on this thing. Uh, and this team sucks. I don't know if Siriani is going to keep his job. There's just so much wind out there with the Eagles. I mean, they could blow this one. They could absolutely blow this one.

I like it Eagles for Pritch Toddy. I mean, I totally see how the Eagles could of course lose.

I mean, just like you said, you know, it's they're just there wasn't much professionalism in that Jaguars game. They let them back in the game ridiculously, So, you know, but I think the I think Denver. I don't really think Denver can beat the Chiefs, but maybe if they got a whole bunch of turnovers and they play good defense, they hold the Chiefs down to say, I don't know, seventeen points. Somehow they get like a couple turnovers or something, maybe Denver could pull it.

I don't think they will, but you know, I wouldn't be shocked.

Really. You said Minnesota at seven counts, right, yes to do? Yeah, I'll go with that one. Still, Donald, it's still on the road kind of a flat spot. I don't I don't know, I could see minnesotalism I'm with you.

Did I tell you that Matt Jones is the quarterback? How do you feel about Matt Jones?

Well, that was the quarterback before. It's not Mahomes. Mahome isn't the Jaguars quarterback, Trevor Lawrence. It's okay, it'll be a maybe Lawrence is playing terrible. I agree Trevor Lawrence is say I hate Trevor Lawrence. But Matt Jones, Well they have who never fumbles, never fumbles going into the end art never.

Yeah, I just think the Jaguars aren't terrible and Minnesota has left shake. And then the final question, Let's say we live in a bizarro world. There's fourteen games this weekend. You are forced to bet a side in thirteen of the fourteen, but you get one free pass, Mike, one game that you want no part of whatsoever on the side.

What came with it?

Oh boy, I should be prepared for this question, Gil, Okay.

I could have sent you the description again.

Yeah, no, no, this is fine.

Gosh, you want to you want to pass? And will that ask you ours?

No, I'll take a shot at it. A game that I have I don't want anything, no part of because I'm trying to go perfect. Is that really the just of the question.

Yeah, we don't hold you to this one. We're just curious what your response would be. Okay, man, it's it's designed.

The question is designed to to have a listener who would otherwise be on this game, to have pause if you say you want no part of me, Yeah.

I guess the money night game. I mean the Dolphins in the Rams. It's what you got the Rams at home.

They're one.

You know, there's no way I can pick a winner in this game or feel competent making a bet in this game. There's injuries on both sides and you know, yeah, Hall of Fame quarterback on one side.

Just this line should be big. I think with Rams should be a bigger favorite in this one.

But why aren't they not a bigger favorite with Miami traveling all the way across the country there and Miami certainly limping into this one too. So McVeigh just an outclass. I'm a coaching standpoint. It just I just can't understand why it's only they're only laying.

To point at home.

I like it, Dottie, I just wanted to those things.

Uh, capri pants are acceptable clothing for a pro football coach.

To me, I say, you go full pants or you go shorts, but you don't go caplee pants.

To me, that's just me. That's that ankle thing right, it's higher than the ankle those are and the low the high cast.

See.

My thing with that is as long as they win, everybody likes it. But as soon as they start losing, man, people are like, oh, capree pants and have those?

You got to know what to wear.

I actually, when I was coaching, I wore the Charlie Weiss attire.

If you don't remember correctly, eight billion, eight billion pounds Charlie Weiss. He was a bit offensive coordinated though. The game that I don't want is Colts Bills. I don't know who the Colts are. Are the Colts good? Are they bad? Is Flacco good? Is he bad? Can they run the ball? Can they not run the ball? What is the hell is this team? I have no idea to me.

Against the Vikings, they couldn't even block a second for Flacco, and then other times they're just throwing it all over, run it all over.

I have no idea. And then the Bills on the road, laying a lot of points I don't want any part of it.

Really.

I was going to go with Rams Dolphins too, but I'll pick a different one just to be different. I'll go Lions Texans just because I was ready to take the Texans. Texans and you're paying I think a premium for Detroit and you can usually do pretty well just fading, you know, the flavor of the week. But without Nico Collins. Boy, I don't really want to step in front of this Lion's team without Digs, without Collins, So Lion's Texans is on for me.

Did you see the Lions points spread record?

Did you guys see the Lions point.

Campbell's covered like seventy something percent for his career. It's it's insane.

It's some insane number.

We're not sure whether the endless wing record or the point spread record is bigger. From Appleby's with Dan Campbell unbelievable.

I had Aaron shots from football from Ano Footballers Anymore FTN, who we referenced earlier about having the Ravens and the Niners to his best teams of all time last year. He says, the Lions through eight games this year, I think they've played eight, right, They're seven and one. The Lions tore eight games are better than those teams were last year.

This year's long.

I'm going with the Patriots and the Bears because you could tell me anything. You could tell me the Bears one by twenty five, or you could tell me the Patriots one outright, I would believe.

So I have no interest in that game. Patriots and the Bears. Thank you, gentlemen. We got to run Mike Pritchards Football Contest Show. It's podcast wherever guess are available and just all around great guy. Thank you so much. You really appreciate I appreciate you, guys man.

It's always a pleasure to be on with you.

Thank you to the Buffalo, Bigger and Bigger Bowl. We'll see what the.

Playoffs through that I got, I got a big twelve. I want him to make the playoffs. Well, yeah, that I'll take that way offs. That's possible, still possible.

There's so many undefeated and one loss teams in college football still with those schedules.

Yeah.

Todd Wishnev from his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, PA at t wish Nev on Twitter. Starting with his college basketball shizz or as that started your group college basketball stuff.

And will are texting on a nightly basis.

We're all over it. He likes the late unders. I like the first half overs.

And necessarily under.

A couple were overs last night.

But you do it in general, your favorite best is oh no, the group. Yeah, I'm doing the WhatsApp group still.

I haven't added any people lately because it just takes time to sit down and put all the people in. But if you send me a private message, the next time I do it, I'll put I'll put you in, and I put all my in game plays on there. I was just talking about how me and Willie will text back and forth on these uh and he has some really good uh late game in game unders. I miss the text sometimes, Willy because you put it in, you know, and it's like we only get like a second to get it, you know, at the way end there.

But those, you have some good unders.

Really has skins that like still put up a total with like ninety seconds left in the game or something.

Usually three minutes. They cut it off at most of them. But yeah, and it's a little finish in the season with the fouling. But yeah, what was it last night? Nova was losing to an IVY League team. I was like, and they were down eleven. I was like, I think they're going to keep fouling to the bitter end, and they did. They haven't going way way over by the way, that was a great pick.

Let me just say before we end, that was a great pick by Willie because they were they were They put it so high one fifty seven and a half, they had one forty three, there was three minutes left. But he made a great intuition, which was Villanova's losing to an IVY League team, They're gonna faul to the bitter end, and that's exactly what happened.

That was a great pick, Willie.

Thanks Todd will who is the host of the Should a Bit More podcast, which he does multiple times a week. I can be found on a Numbers game at easton ten to noon eastern, seven and nine Pacific.

Thank you for listening.

Good luck with all your Week ten bets and then National Football League and I'm gonna catch Don Berson