Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon give their thoughts on every game on the week 4 NFL slate on Monday's Beating The Book. What are their initial thoughts for the week 4 slate of games? Also, some impressions on week 3.
Check it down, man, The numbers told the story. Now he's done.
It's on those idiots will believe in the analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander Gone Vison Good.
Monday Morning Tude is a numbers game at Visondsports Betting Network, Visa dot Com Game plus iHeartRadio YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. This morning, it's guessing lines for week four in the National Football League, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin in the Hiszzy. How's it going man?
Oh rough weekend? Gil, how about you?
That's a man who's no longer in Survivor. That's what I got out of that answer.
Yeah.
By the way, if you're just tuning into guessing lines for the first time, it's an exercise. I don't know the lines. I guess them. We look back at yesterday. I guess the lines. Kelly tells me what they are, and hopefully within that exercise we can extract value. Usually the first reaction is really over time the best to be honest with you. Obviously, there's news that comes in during the week that could change your mind, but the first reaction is often the most interesting. Let us begin with Survivor, though if we might, yes, I'm sorry, let's do that a little eulogy for Kelly Bivlin. Dude, I might be gone tonight. I could be gone tonight. Circus Survivor is setting all kinds of new records for carnage, the bad kind of records after three weeks. No, it's not even after three weeks. There's still two more games. Let me not even say that. Yeah, still with two games left in three weeks, out of fourteen thousand, two hundred and sixty six entries, only sixteen hundred and thirty remain one six hundred and thirty. Do you know what the carnage percentages on that? Eighty eight point five seven percent, literally almost nine out of ten. Again, with two games remaining tonight. If the Bengals are to lose tonight, good God, please don't let that happen. But the Bills also not negligible amount of entries either, at seventy one. Bengals are the picked this week at ninet eighty eight, but the number two, the number three, and the number four most popular teams this year all go down. The Browns to the Giants, the Bucks go down to the Broncos, the Raiders, they go down to the Panthers. Not to mention Niners, Titan says, those kinds of things, but those are the big ones. I thought this was gonna be the week one the Jets one on Thursday. I was like, Okay, maybe this is the week where you know, not many people get eliminated.
No.
Two, three weeks in a row. It was thirty nine percent of entries week one, fifty five point four to five percent of the remaining entries in week two, and so far in week three, fifty seven point nine to six percent of the remaining entries again eighty eight what is it? Eighty eight point five seven percent of total entries gone and we're not even done in week three.
My god, it has been wild. It has been absolutely wild to witness some of these Some of these teams just jump out to you of like people that pick like it's not this over the weekend of like three people pick the vikings of like checked like their schedules. I'm like, man, I like, there will be a lot better schedule spots. That's just it. That's just a gangster pick right there. He's just like, screw it. Texans coming to town. And playing them.
I just have the Bengals left at tonight.
I'm not a survivor yet. I can't play that yet. No users tied into Bengals. I'll be rooting for you. But uh yeah, bra I tied everything into Cleveland yesterday, all the entries and boom.
A little premium, a little premature survivation right there. Sorry about that, Kelly, I'm sorry you're out. You're like Kramer, I'm out about the week three. Uh, that's right.
Two years in a row, might even be three years at this point.
You like have these little benchmarks, you like, can I get to Can I get to October?
No?
I know that's where That's where I'm at in my head right now with this contest.
And you know what I mean.
We say it every time Gil sign me up again. Next year, I can sign up right now, I would.
Can I just throw up this before we get to the Thursday night game? Can we just throw up that one tweet?
Do we have that?
Guy's from Tony Market Tips? Tony Market Tips?
Do we have that yet? Uh?
He does this courtesy of Survivor Atlas. He sort of throws that up. He sort of relays to me what survivor Atlas has discovered and he has put this in a different kind of context, which is that five people lost all ten entries on Cleveland. Remember ten is the max entries. Five people lost them all on Cleveland yesterday, including the poker player Sean Perry. He's gone, sorry, Sean Perry. Two people lost all ten on the Raiders. There are only three people left with ten entries left. Only three people with ten entries left. Nobody has by the way, two of them have all ten on Cincinnati tonight. The other has five of ten on Cincinnati. Nobody has nine entries left. Two people have eight entries left. Eighteen total people have five plus entries.
That's it.
That's it again. Back to my point of redundancy comment. Forty seven people have four plus entries, one hundred people have three plus entries. Only one hundred people out of fourteen two hundred and sixty six have three plus entries left.
That's wild. Yeah, it's uh. This is a week that has me questioning strategy. We'll see if Cincinnati wins. Like I, you know, should I had two? Should I have split? You know what I mean? I split? Like? Should I have split?
No?
I got to cocky. I went with Cleveland. That wasn't even that.
I loved the schedule situation for Cleveland as we discussed the quote unquote proper place to play them quote unquote being the key of that sentence.
Where I got cocky was the opening, uh, the opening plays of that game, which we're gonna go. Oh, well, let's let's go. Let's go to the Thursday night game. Okay, we got much to get Sorry, al right, we all have to get your guessing lines firing up. Boys, Let's go Monday boarding. As we as we do, we roll through all the games for the coming week. Guess the lines. Thursday night, we will start with Cowboys and Giants.
The one and two Cowboys at the one and two Giants. Oh what a ball game? This is Thursday. And by what a ball game, I mean the opposite. Dallas loses to Baltimore, though they made it interesting in the fourth quarter. If you miss this early part. Baltimore's first touch of the ball seventy one yards five plays Lamar to Charlie Colarf for thirty then Lamar in from nine seven to nothing Baltimore early first quarter. Then, by the way, this will go quietly, get washed away. In the weekend, Brandon Aubrey hits a sixty five yard field goal. Was incredible, the second longest field goal in the history of the National Ball League. And it's just a nonchalant about it.
Yeah, sixty five, no, biggie.
Although we did have a lot of misses with long field goals yesterday. That regressed a bit. Right after that, though, Baltimore did the same thing. Seven plays, seventy yards Lamar to Agualore for fifty six, setting up a Derek Henry one yard touchdown run two plays later, fourteen to three Baltimore. Then I want to ask you about this play because I don't think enough was made of this. Dallas has the ball down fourteen to three. They're deep in their own territory, they own seven. Dak looks to either be sacked in the end zone or at a minimum guilty of intentional grounding. Somehow he gets away with a garden variety incomplete pass. Then he just hurls in front of him at his offensive lineman and ends up as a three and out.
What was that? I'm so glad you brought this up here.
Is that not a safety?
All right? How many times do we see an offensive lineman grab a ball like that, and you're like, what are you doing? Guy, Like, come on, you know you're not allowed to do that. They're going to flag you for because we believe it because he did that, Gil, I'm convinced that because he caught that, they didn't call intentional grounding In one world?
Is that not intentional grinding in the end, so why bring it up? Baltimore would then go eighty eight yards Lamar to Henry for twenty three. The biggest played Lamara Bateman from thirteen down. It's twenty one to three. Aubrey fifty one yard field goal before the half, twenty one six, and then Baltimore to begin the third quarter, not to begin, but in the third quarter five plays seventy yards Henry for twenty nine. On the drive Henry and the end zone from twenty six, twenty eight to six. Baltimore with eleven fifty eight left in the third quarter. That was to begin the third quarter. So it's twenty eight to six and at this point, if we were going to review the weekend, Dallas would be the worst team on the field all weekend long at this point. But then Dallas comes to life after a turnover on downs. By the way, a turnover on downs from Dallas were on fourth and fourth was intended for Cooks, and then Cooks completely takes the defensive back and like throws him to the ground. I was like, how is that not a homicide right there? So after that, Tucker justin. Tucker misses a forty six yard field goal, which needs to be mentioned. Early fourth quarter, it's still twenty eight to six. Now here's where it all changes. Dallas six play sixty four yards dack in from one. Two point try failed, twenty eight to twelve. Dave Ross noted, Dallas cowboy fan wish they hadn't gone for two there. He just wanted to play at old school style. Then Dallas says, I do declare, I want an onside kick here, and they recover it first ever recovered new under the new rules, recovered onside kick eight thirty left. Then Dallas goes seven plays fifty six yards back to Jalen Tolbert from fifteen out twenty eight to eighteen.
Two point try fails.
They do declare again, but the Ravens recover, this time Baltimore three and out. Dallas another drive eleven plays ninety one yards. Couple defensive penalties helped along dak to Gavante Turpin from sixty down on third and ten at the sixth he ain't touchdown. Twenty eight, twenty five, with two to fifty three left, they kick away third and six at their own twenty five for Baltimore. Dallas has one time out and two minute warning at this point, but Lamar to Zay for nine. Dallas uses their last time out the two minute warning game ice. On a second and nine from their own thirty five one, Lamar fakes the end around, pulls the ball out at the last second, ten yards up the gut ball game Baltimore twenty eight twenty five winners Prescott twenty eight to fifty one for three seventy nine. In defeat, they gave up four hundred and seventy six total yards. They were out gained two seventy four to fifty one on the ground, where the Dallas Cowboys were a sieve of a defense, no defensive tackles and if you can block Michaeh. Parsons, then you can beat this football team. Every time Giants Giants beat the Cleveland Browns. I'm sorry, Kelly and for all Cleveland survivor players. I had one entry in Cleveland opening kickoff. You got cocky, didn't you though, Eric Gray FuMB Eric gray fumbill the Kioff return. Grant Delpit recovered first play for Scrimmage Deshaun Tamari twenty four yards seven to another Cleveland eleven seconds into the game.
You're rolling. The text went out, great start, New York, great start.
And then the Giants with an eighty one yard drive Singletary in seven to seven, then the Giants from their own seven later ninety three yards, Jones to Neighbors from three out, fourteen to seven. Then Cleveland late first late first half, after converting fourth and one, Deshaun first and tended his own forty sacked by Brian Burns.
Fumbles.
Elijah Chapman recovers at the Cleveland thirty. Several plays later, Jones and Neighbors from five out again twenty one to seven.
Giants.
At the half, the route was on and then Singleton, and then it was you had so many chances if you had Cleveland here right Singleton. Singletary got hit by Shelby Harris. He fumbled in the third quarter. It was recovered by Ronnie Hickman, Cleveland was set up in plus territory. Hopkins misses a fifty three yarder, then Cleveland was set up at the Giants forty nine. Later, five plays to Shawn de Muri from six out. They got the two point commersion was twenty one to fifteen eleven thirty three left, then the Giants three out. Then Cleveland took over at their own twenty with nine to fifty three left. They got it to the Giants forty four. Then DeShawn hands it off to Jerome Ford. He never secures it, just an unenforced fumble. Unforced fumble as we say in tennis. As he's Ojelari recovered at seven forty to go another punt, Cleveland gets the ball.
Don't worry though.
The Giants four and out, fourth and one at their own twenty nine fails. Watson sacked. Then Joseph missed a forty eight yard field goal badly, no problem. Cleveland gets it again, four and out again, Watson right into Cedric Tilman's bread basket on fourth down. He can't hang on turnover on downs anyway. Single Terarry would break a final one and then he would smartly lie down at the one yard line. For all intents purposes, that was ballgame, and the Giants, despite all the chances Cleveland has wins this ball game twenty one to fifteen. I will say, when you put all that in the wash, Dallas minus four and a half on the road, something like that ending.
Daing four to five right now, basically mainly four and a half's.
Out there, yeah, south right, that's exciting Thursday Night Action guessing lines, reviewing it all. And oh the coaches who got to get to that next right here on a Numbers game at vast and these Sports Vetting.
Network numbers game on the Sports Vetting Network.
Back on a numbers game live from Circa Gail Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, we get tweets at beating the book. They're all about the survivor. By the way, I just want to mention one Indiana Jet. He was one of the four choppers last year. He says, well, I'm out too. Yeah, he says, I thought sleeping on a large pile of money from my winnings last year would make me feel better, but nope, it's gonna be a long day.
That's all written. He said.
Let's go Bengals, which I think is for me. I think, thank you if that's the case.
But yeah, you got to the Promised Land last year, you can't expect to go back to back. Yeah. Yeah. I had a couple of friends playing in it for the first time this year who both both went out last year. It's just hilarious that every everybody has the same reality. Like I got multiple texts yesterday afternoon of like, I'm so depressed right now and I don't know why.
Like it's survivor, Like it hangs over more than you would think. It's a different kind of loss.
It really is. Yeah, yeah, it's.
A different kind of loss. Okay, let's go to Sunday.
Hy Sunday early Window one Eastern ten Pacific Saints at Falcons.
The two and one Saints now against the one in two Falcons, a little NFC South clash early season. New Orleans loses to Philly. This is gonna be more about Philly than it is New Orleans. I think let's go first place, second quarter, third and eight at the New Orleans eleven for the Eagles.
Hurts picked by.
Tarn Matthew the honey Badger in the end zone after New Orleans three and out, fourth and one for Philly at the New Orleans forty six, No tures Bush hurts to Goddard for six. I thought that was interesting. Two plays later, Hurts flushed out of the pocket, Carl Grandson Saxony knocks the ball out of hurts his hands. Willie Gay Junior covered it, but New Orleans has to pun again. Philly gets to fourth and one at the New Orleans fifteen. This is a zero zero ballgame, they show Turrish Bush instead, They handed off to Saquon Tackle for no. Game, by the ways, three to nothing at this point. I don't know if a three to nothing game. Late in the second quarter, fourth and one at the New Orleans fifteen, they continually are allergic to field goal. I don't it's three to nothing, kick the field goal.
I didn't see this live, but oh boy, what the reaction reaction on Twitter.
Oh just it's just I just don't understand.
Yeah, I mean, in this one, it's kind of it just doesn't make any sense.
I listen, I love going for fourth down as much as anybody, but like, it's three to nothing. Points like matter hugely at this point of the game. They decide to show it again. All right, so tap time it's three to nothing New Orleans. Let's see, we're gonna pay fourth.
And the biggest problem with that, yo, I mean it was what was there like twelve seconds left on the clock or something, right, So even if you got it, it was kind of like, what were you gonna do? You're gonna have one one play Maine. Maybe they just kicked a field goal? Was it? This?
We go to third quarter, fourth and three for Philly from the new at the New Orleans thirty four. They go for it again, three to nothing, game, Hurts sacked by Brian Breese. Then uh New Orleans punt and Philadelphi punt. They got it blocked. But now New Orleans return the favor. And this is the one that seemed to matter the most. It was as long as Philly kept doing it in failing, New Orleans couldn't capitalize. But the one time New Orleans did it, fourth and one at the Philly eighteen to start the fourth quarter, Camara was ruled short. Philly took advantage four plays in saquon from sixty five out touchdown early fourth quarter. On the previous play, Davante got hurt. Kelly texted me, I think Davante's dead. Then New Orleans gets it to fourth and six of the Philly twenty group A. This time they kick a field goal seven to six. They cut the lead of seven to six ninety nine fourth quarter, and then Philly does the opposite thing. They decide to roll Jake Elliott out there for a sixty yard field goal trying up a point, and he misses that. New Orleans takes over at midfield nine plays Cardo a lobby from twelve out touchdown two point fails twelve to seven New Orleans with two three to two oh three to go, and then a clever mortar kick by New Orleans to force a return and get it below the two minute warning. Nice job, good nuanced by New Orleans, even though it didn't matter in the end. Philadelphia now with no aj Brown, no DeVante, third and sixteen at their own thirty five, they're dead right Nope, one sixteen to go.
Hurts to Goddard for sixty one.
Blown coverage to the New Orleans four with one oh five left, Saquon In for four touchdown, Saquon In for two. Fifteen to twelve. Philadelphia. New Orleans has one time out with one on one to go. Second place second and fourth their own thirty six car ill advised pass. There's Derek Carr. How many people in the country went there?
He is?
There's Derek Carr.
Picked by Red blanket ship ballgame Philadelphia fifteen twelve New Orleans not the not the same look as they were the first two weeks where they scored ninety one points. Couldn't do anything in this game, and Philly gave them all kinds of reprieves. Philly could have won this game big. Instead, they need a sort of miracle sixty one yard played to Goddard to pull it out. Philly fifteen, New Orleans twelve. Philly for all of their warts and all of the Sirianni gaffs here the last two weeks. Obviously the Atlanta game last week the biggest thing with Philly. We'll get to Philly later. They're still probably one of the ten best teams in the NFL conservatively. I don't know about New Orleans. Now they're at Atlanta.
You said at Atlanta. Yeah, I just real quick too on that. I thought schematically, I thought Big Fangio was awesome. Yesterday I didn't couldn't really pick up on exactly what was going on Ifout. Adam Turnoff laid it out perfectly this morning on his podcast and Simple Handicap. They were really throwing five guys up in the line of scrimmage Philadelphia on the defensive side so often, and it was just so much pressure on that running game, and once they kind of stuffed that running game, it made Derek Carr pass. I just don't think that's ever the situation you're gonna ideally want to be in New Orleans. So kind of interesting scenarios. Maybe is that a way we see the Saints get played a lot going forward.
Carr was fourteen of twenty five for one two. Camara was twenty six of eighty seven three catches for forty, which is kind of cantaining him. They were out gained by Philly four sixty to two nineteen. Yeah, that's impressed. That's sixty to two nineteen. The Eagles out game Atlanta Kansas City last night. In case you missed this game, Atlanta went up seven to nothing. The Chiefs tied him at seven apiece. Let's see, I'm trying to edit this one on the flight because I didn't they edit this one last night. But let's let's go to the late second late first half when Kansas City has an opportunity for a double dip. Atlanta actually got the ball back with fifty nine seconds left, and then Kirk Cousins did a Kirk Cousins kind of thing. He was picked by Jamari Connor that set up a Butcker forty four yard field goal. So it was fourteen to thirteen Atlanta at the half, but the double dip was in effect. Butker got a twenty one yard field goal on the first drive of the third quarter to put Kansas City up for the first time in this game, sixteen to fourteen, and then Mahomes to Juju from thirteen out where Butcker missed the extra point late third quarter to make it twenty two to fourteen. A young Heyku fifty four yarder would cut it to twenty two to seventeen, and then last part last portion of this game, twelve fifty two to go twenty two to seventeen. Kansas City with a three and out, Matta Riza fields a high snap, Atlanta ends up and he's able to get it away. Atlanta ends up with a fourth and five at the Kansas City six down five last sequence of this game, down down five points, fourth and five at the Kansas City six with four to oh eight to go, and Raheem Morris decides to go for it incomplete intended for Drake London, PI not called. Were you okay with the non call?
Yeah, it's one of those. It's one of those, Gil, No, I'm not okay with it. I think it should have been called. I think that in the regular The problem is with the spotlight on it.
It makes it, it makes it look more obvious. Well, it also brings out the chiefs conspiracy theorist, right, Yeah, And I would be lying to you if I didn't have the thought in my head.
Yeah, if that's.
The Washington Redskins, there's no question that's a PI.
Okay, right, So that like if it's if it's second quarter, you know, I don't know, man. It just felt it felt like a very high leverage moment, and a decision was made.
A decision was made, all right, Kansas City three and out, though Atlanta takes over again at their own thirty five. Remember they're down five after a penalty on Kansas City on the punt with two twenty one left, then three more defensive penalties on this drive. These were like all felt not all of them, but at least one of them felt makeupy from that non p I call in the end zone, and that helped Atlanta downfield. One of which felt makeup is I said, get They got it to third and one at the Kansas City thirteen with one to oh three left, remember, still down five touchdown to win it. Then Raheem Morris, please explain this to me as ridiculous as what Sirianni was doing in the In the Eagles Saints game, Raheem Morris peculiarly calls Atlanta's first time out, bleed it a little?
What do you do? Yeah? I didn't get that one. What are you doing call time out? I didn't get that.
Then, when al Jier doesn't get to this sticks on third down, Morris tries calling another one with fifty six seconds left, Bro, you can like get thirty more seconds off.
Like you know who's on the other sideline right.
But Andy Reid beats him to it and he reads like you saw her.
I was like, what's happening?
So it's fourth and inches at the Kansas City thirteen. Cousins, as we remember, is not a guy who sneaks, never has been really they hand off to Beijon but East West, Yeah, what are you doing? Drop for a three yard lost ball game? Because Morris used to time out so the math didn't work out for him at that point.
I mean, like these quarterbacks that can't sneak, like you're so limited with your play calling in that situation.
He wasn't the completely career long non sneaker that's say Philip Rivers was. But you knew the sneak was not a possibility. We knew that was coming right there. That play was out of the equation and they decided to try a little uh non forward run there and that was the end of that. Cousins twenty of twenty nine for two thirty one touchdown, one pick. He was sacked twice. I don't know what that play call was, but Rahee Morris made no sense. New Orleans and Atlanta. I split the difference between the zero and the three. I said, Atlanta minus one and a half.
Yeah, right now it is Atlanta one and a half.
Yes, these are these are not the most difficult to imagine here Falcons minus one and a half.
That sounds about right. It's trying to see if there's any movement this morning. No, we are one and a half across the border right now.
Do you feel any differently about New Orleans or Atlanta after yesterday's games?
A little bit. I think not not shocking to see New Orleans come back down to earth a little bit.
I think they're both good teams that have an a game in them. You just can't expect it to come out.
We guess it's perfectly said.
Yep, and so in the wash. That means they're not all that great in the end. More guessing lines. On the other side, numbers gave Visa these Sports Betting.
Network numbers game on the network?
Are you the type of players looking to get down ten thousand dollars more on an NFL line at the best price in the market, or perhaps you're looking to get your in game play instantly accepted. Introducing sport Trade, the ath that's going to change sports betting minus one oh four lines instead of the typical minus one ten, instant in game betting, and a concierge player service. Sport Trade perfect for those who want a premium betting experience. Sport Trade live in New Jersey, Colorado, Iowa, now Arizona. It is official coming to Virginia early next month. Download Sports Trade used code Vson to earn ten percent cash back on each wager in your first week. Terms applied gott to be twenty one years or older to play. If you were someone you know as a gambling problem and wants held, call her Texas one eight hundred at Gambler Skill Alexander.
We had tweets that beating the book.
Always appreciate the feedback. This is from rb tref just to follow Vison. I'm not much for trigger warnings, but can you let me know when you're going through that Browns quote unquote performance from yesterday? I had three entries to a one million dollar Survivor and now just one pending Cincinnati tonight. Eighty seven point five percent of entries gone. Maybe too high of expectations for Ohio. That's right around the percentage of the Circus Survivor carnage as well. It's just incredible that almost nine of ten entries and we're still not done with week three are out. Joe Abraham ten ten, I have a Tennessee ticket on last win list, but Jacksonville at plus two hundred seems like a good play now, Tennessee playing Miami this week, in Jacksonville at Buffalo tonight, and at Houston next week. It seems Tennessee should be the one in plus money. Well, Tennessee should be the one in plus money because there's a Tennessee should be the short shot at this point because they could win tonight.
Yeah right, yeah, they can win this market tonight, so they have the.
They're in the driver's seat just by virtue of that right that we could. I don't know if it's likely, but if Cincinnati were to win tonight and Jacksonville were to win tonight, Cincinnati is likely. But if Jacksonville were also win it. By the way I am on Jacksonville plus the points tonight, that market is over. Tennessee is your winner.
I had to look. I had there were three weeks I had to look, because we talked about this on Wednesday last week. I think it was we had that discussion. Titans plus seven to fifty, Jags fourteen to one, Bengals thirty.
To one to be last winless. Yeah, I can't beat myself up about it. I never really considered Tennessee ever.
I'll be either not at all and certainly not jackson Yeah, that's for sure.
Also, Andy Nelson says that play in the end zone with no PI is the exact amount of contact that the Bengals defender had on the Chiefs receiver last weekend.
Very true. I'm gonna say a little less after just rewatching him during the break. But okay, I mean Chiefs both, I get it.
Yeah, Yet the point trip tepper always in favor of being aggressive butt when scoring is very limited like the Eagles Saints game, three points is extremely valuable. Sirianni's main job is understanding game flow and scoring pace, which he failed to notice or just ignored. Amen, brother, exactly what I'm getting at. Michael Burns letting me know that BYU having a Jewish quarterback is truly one of the great stories in college sports. They had him last year too, Jake Rhetz left. It is a great story. It's also a great story. Oh yeah, no, it's one of the most remarkable stories in sports. It's also a great story. That kid from pittmake be two. Do you know what I mean.
Now?
That score line on Saturday Jason H eleven. Was Jason Kelsey so good at pushing the Tillists that they can't do it? Since his retirement, they seem to like not want to do it as much. And then Chris Lee Miller, I love this one, and we'll read more after this, but he says, I think the difficulty level of this is going to become obvious to smart players talking about Survivor, and they're going to dial it back on entries. But at the same time, I'll be back with my same amount of entries.
I love that you brought that up multiple times during the end of what end of last season, during the off season, about like what you thought the optimal amount of entries was.
I have used the phrase Joe Pete and I talk about this all the time. It's I believe there's a point of redundancy point. I believe there's a point of redundancy with entries, meaning that whether you have twenty ten, you know, let's say in a big world you had one hundred ten or five or whatever it is, you end up playing them percentage wise. And so yes, obviously at the end there are going to be three people, right that end up with two and are going to have some advantage at Thanksgiving over the others. That doesn't prove the opposite, right, It doesn't prove. Oh you see, those people started with more, so therefore that you should start with more. I don't think. I think for ninety nine percent of the folks, it does not matter, right Like I think if you start with five or ten, the difference is negligible, a slight difference, but not nearly the difference that the increase in entries reflects. So it's not a you're not one hundred percent better off. In other words, you're a fraction of that better off, in my opinion, And I think that gets you're like this, it gets proven. Yeah, especially the carnage we were just talking about. Let's move on.
What do you got? All right? Sunday early windows still Rams at Bears Rams, the one in two rams at the one and two Bears.
The Rams lose to the Niners. In the Juwan Jenning game, Juwan Jennings game, so, and I thought.
Rock Party was brilliant. By the way, he is awesome.
They didn't have Kittle, they didn't have Debo, they of course didn't have Christian McCaffrey. So Juwan Jennings has the game of his life.
I think that was my favorite Rock Party game. Every Yes, I think so too. It's so funny, you say, No, nobody ever called this dude a system quarterback ever again.
He is a.
Gunslinger that just plays for a good coach and it was so fun watching him. Kind of couldn't agree. Get creative with stuff yesterday and slinging it all over.
Jennings scored all three Niners touchdowns against the Rams. Niners went up fourteen nothing, then the Rams came back with a Stafford to Kyron Williams fifteen yard touchdown pass where Kyron flipped into the end zone fourteen to seven, and that would be the score at the half. Then in the second half, the third party to Jennings touchdown from thirty one twenty one to seven. Kyron and the Rams would come back with a six place seventy yard drive, forty eight of that on a pi Kyron in from three twenty one to fourteen late third quarter. Then amazing thirty two yard catch by Jennings to start a drive would end up with a Moody twenty six yard field goal was twenty four to fourteen. Niners up ten with eleven fifty seven a go, the Rams will get it to first goal at the eight, but settle for a Joshua cardy thirty three yard field goal, and you figured if you were a ramsbacker at that point, you're like, ah, well, that was their chance. Twenty four to seventeen Niners, was six to fifteen left in the fourth quarter. And then I wrote in my notes, pretty sort of brilliant, but Moody misses fifty five yard field goal try. So the Niners trying to put it up two scores. Moody missed the fifty five yard there was there was our fair share of missed fifty pluses yesterday. Takers all of a sudden looked sort of human again for distance gilt, little regression to the mean. And then the Rams got the ball back down seven with two forty three left. First play stafford to two to two for fifty to the San Francisco five to two minute warning. Two plays later, kyron in from four, So Juan Jennings scored three for the uh three for the Niners, and did Kiren score all three for the for the Rams? Just two, yeah, all three, UH one fifty one to go twenty four to twenty four. All right, but the Niners still have the ball in their racket. Second and ten at their own forty three party to Ronnie Bell downfield, straight drops it. That was the second drop of the game.
So bad cut that, dude.
Oh that was bad and they had yesterday. And the Rams get it back. Xavier Smith returns the Wishnowski punt thirty seven yards to midfield with forty two seconds to go. They're in business. First play three defensive penalties.
By the way, on defense, they'll take the pi of the choice of the three down to the San Francisco twenty five Kyron for six sets up a CARDI thirty seven yard field be for the win. Good by the way.
A pretty robust attempt at a pitchy pitchy woo woo with two seconds left, but the Rams hold on and win it twenty seven to twenty four, coming back from ten in the fourth quarter. Wow. Stafford sixteen of twenty five for two twenty one Kyron twenty four twenty four for eighty nine on the ground two touchdowns, two catches for twenty seven in a touch so Jewon Jennings three touchdowns, Kyra and Williams three touchdowns of the game. The Rams were out gained four twenty five to two ninety six. You see a lot of that this week.
In the NFL.
They're playing Chicago. You said, Chicago, listen. I don't know how much we need to go through this game. Other than such a terrible game.
Chicago and Indianapolis played a disgusting football game in which it was sort of like a hey, each quarterback did their best job to try to lose the game points.
Every day was like, hey, Anthony Richardson picked in the enzon by Tremaine Edward by Tremaine Edmonds. Caleb quickly returns favor four plays in, and so this game was just sort of Indianapolis led it seven to nothing and then Chicago would come right back like anything you did, they would they would do. But Chicago got it to fourth and gold the one, they pitched it to DeAndre Swift who lost twelve yards. So there was all kinds of moments like that. By the way, there was a hail Mary at the end of the first half which went into the end zone for the Bears and it got tipped back out to the one yard line, so they just blew the hail Marriage and it was seven to enough. DJ Moore caught it at the one and was tackled seven to nothing Indianapolis at the half, and then you know, Anthony Richardson airmailed to crossfield pass early in the third quarter that led to a Santo's field goal cut it to seven to three. Chicago had so many chances. Caleb threw it into coverage a little later, picked off a deflection by Jalen Jones, his second pick of the day off Caleb. This was just an ugly football game that came down to, you know, at the end it was fourteen to nine. And then Caleb first played from his own eighteen Now in the fourth quarter, he was sacked by Laiitu Latte Latu fumbles were covered by Grover Stewart at the Bear sixteen. Four plays later, Taylor in from one twenty one to nine. Bears would go seventy yards to Caleb to comet fourth and one at the Indianapolis six with two to one left to cut of twenty one sixteen. And it was with two oh one left. So again these these two minute warning nuances Indianapolis, so they declare the onside kick, so they get it north of the two minute warning. They declare the onside kick with one time out left in two minute warning, and they go ahead and kick a touch back anyway, Indianapolis should have tried to return it to take away a stoppage from the Bears. So instead there was two h one when Indianapolis got the ball back again. It's a nuance that didn't end up mattering. But again, these are things that the coaches are missing moot. Because JT went for thirteen on second and six ball game twenty one to sixteen, the Colts end up winning it.
I will say the Rams by three at Chicago open Chicago one and a half out to Chicago two and a half. Now, oh my, all right, I think I like the Rams banged up as they are. I don't the Bear should not be three boy favorites of this game.
We'll come back. We're guessing lines.
The numbers game on v said these sports vetting.
On back on a numbers game live from Circa Skill Alexander, by the Way, hockey season coming.
Early October, Kelly, are you aware of this?
Oh?
You are you? I am a twenty nine days still NBA stars, We'll go.
NHL Betting Guide Pro Edition. Our Pro Guide includes previous of all thirty two teams, Stanley Cup predictions, best bets from Vson experts. Sign them now, VSA dot com slash subscribe and unlock full Vson access for seventy five percent.
Off the first thirty days. How about that. The NHL season, I.
Believe starts on October fourth.
I believe. Sign them now Vson dot com slash subscribe. Our preview guys are phenomenal. Adam Burke front center at our NHL Penning Guide, The Betting Guide Pro Edition. Why do you do that? You know? You know it's October four? He always likes to do the I believe and kind of like it's like the Kelly double check and it's always right.
No, because I'm like a ninety eight percent sure, So I'm like, maybe I'm wrong.
Devils and Sabers Friday Nights, October fourth, we had tweets that be the book super Chair one two eight, four sixty two.
I hate to be the old NFL conservative guy that you guys hate. With four minutes left in all your timeouts, Atlanta could kick a field goal. I hate to tell you, Well, I don't know if you're hating to tell me, because that's what I was saying when I went over the game. I agree they decided to go for it. I'm not really sure why. Super Jerk also says, and I'm not sure, maybe prisoner of the moment. As you say, Nick Sirianni might be the worst game manager I've ever seen in my life as ad coach. What he did yesterday right before the half is another reason he should be fired. Today's talking about is chewing the field goal to tie it up at three apiece instead ran Saquon again East West, like the Falcons did with Bejean last night. Jay Welch thirty one, thirty one, Jesse Welch, anybody else. Having an incredible live betting season thus far, this three week stretch has probably been my best NFL stretch ever, and it's been ninety percent in game. I have you know again, I'm trying to think like my my preflop just to give you know, three and two the first week in circa and I'm betting these right one in.
Four last year.
If Jacksonville covers, I'm three and two this week. So nothing special at all, but like Kansas City as part of the double dip last night, and there were other moments to play them in game when they were down, there are moments of in game I totally get what you're talking about and I bet that and it worked out very well. So yes, there are in game moments that will always beat pre flop bets.
Yeah. I only kind of chuckle because, yes, Jesse in game has been better for me the last two weeks. But that is not saying much because pre game play I have been straight garbage. I have one Circumillion's entry that was four and one week one, and then I've gone one in four and I'm one and three with one pending tonight.
On that.
Oh man, let's see.
Jack Larkin from Sports Trades as apologies of the confusion. Sports Trade not officially live in Arizona, but should be live this week. Okay, let's say Michael Burns, if Holstein makes it to New York, I'll look for you in the audience, talk about Eli Holstein and Pitt who I have one thousand to one to win the Heisman. They were playing Youngstown State and they know it's an interesting so I don't know what he did.
I just saw what they had, like sixty points or so. Oh.
I mean, they're playing Youngstown State, so he was supposed to have a good game. But they have a bye. Pit does then they play two weeks of football, and then they have their second by so like and they're four and oh, so you can if you're the coach, you you sort of should compartmentalize it. Okay, guys, we have a two week schedule now that we play football at Let's just let's try to, I mean minimum, split these games and then you use the second half of season as his own season. It's it's an interesting buy schedule.
They have.
Jason McKinney. Funny you bring up field goals field goals made in a game three and a half plus where twenty seven and five hitting into week three. As Adam Chernoff said on the Beating the Book, Megabody said, I made multiple multiple plays on this Sunday calling Vegas I am the cooler. That's very true. Let's see Brad billups based on the last two weeks. Is Shanahan overrated and pretty underrated? Well, perty is definitely underrated. Let's put it that way. And then uh, let's see doo. I just want to say this one. Oh no, we got to all them. Okay, let's continue. What do you got on Sunday?
My early windows still vikings?
If you did have the one, this is what I was looking for I was too late on ice cold Gamblers. She said, save your breath, you don't need to go over the Bears and calls to us all.
Bad.
I tried to confine it.
To a minute. All right, Vikings and Packers, Oh.
Big NFC North battle. How about the NFC North with the Lions, the Packers and the Vikings.
Who's the best? Uh? The Lions? I think the Packers have maybe been Okay, the Packers and the Vikings maybe the two most impressive teams in football. I think you're right. I mean, the Packers have made me pay for it, but what they did last week maybe that was a one off. Gill then backing up with it yesterday, I'm very impressed.
Nice little wizard of Oz thing you threw in there. Well, Vikings absolutely crushed the Texans, your de facto best team in the league. Vikings first and twenty from their own twenty for Houston. Actually after a holding penalty to start, Stroud picked by Kamu grewsier Hill on a tip up with the Houston twenty one Darnal to Jefferson from six out A little later seven and nothing. Vikings were less than three minutes into the game. Fairbear and missed a fifty four yard try out of fifty four yard misses yesterday or fifty plus anyway, Minnesota sixth plays fifty six yards, darnalds to Jones, Donald to Jones, fourteen to nothing. Late first quarter, Houston gets to a third and fourth of Minnesota twenty five. They false start, false start, false start. I don't think I've ever seen that before. Three straight ball starts. Then, by the way, another penalty that was declined, they have to punt. That was kind of the story of the game. It was so it was again it was fourteen to nothing at the half, and then in the third quarter, then it was a there was like a Donald backwards pass where he got Hitney. He was ruled as a fumble even Minnesota. Minnesota even managed to get seven yards out of that play Brandon Powell, and then two plays later, Pi set up Minnesota first and goal with the one Darnald to Jake Naylor twenty one to nothing, and that would basically be the story of the game. The competitive portion of the ballgame was kind of over it that point. They got it to thirty one to seven. Later in the game, will final score will be thirty four to seven. The main stat you need to know about this game. The Houston Texans had ten different third downs of ten plus yards or more. They were beat. They were just in jail the entire game. Minnesota destroys him thirty four to seven. Darnald seventeen of twenty eight for one eighty one, four touchdowns, no picks, Jones nineteen for one oh two. That's Aaron Jones on the ground five catches for forty six in a touchdown.
So good. He's so good. He's like these running backs that just get cast away, like it amazes me with it. Someone like him, We knew he was gonna be good for this.
Well, someone someone go to the Giants owner, like, if you watch the Giants hard knocks, He was like, if Saquon ends up on the Eagles, I'm just gonna be like, you just.
Want to give him a hug. Well, I guess for Saquad ended up because of your ridiculous general manager.
And then then there's Green Bay. Can we just shout out Malik Willis?
Yeah, real quick, stroud a worst game I've seen him play like a year.
Probably, But if you're third and ten ten different times like not hear?
Yeah? I hear you, but this was Flores. Was all all in the minds of the Texans coaches and.
Strout absolutely, and then Tank Dell got banged up. Late in this game, they had I don't know why they had Niga. They took Stroud out for Davis Mills. Later they just capitulated, but they had Nico Collins playing late. I'm not sure why green Bay.
Lake Willis something about that. Should I just give more money out? Just keep giving Malik Willis money. Malik Willis six place seventy yards opening drive. Willis to Jayden Reid from thirty on the first play, three plays later to Christiana Watson for thirty two plays later malik in from five to seven to nothing. Green Bay just over three minutes into the game. Tennessee would come back with a ten play seventy yard drive Levis to Nick Vinette from one out, seven to seven, and then after a Braden norvis in twenty one yard field goal to make it ten to seven green By ill advised Billy Levi shows up first and ten at their own thirty one Jaiyr Alexander just sitting on the route.
Levis doesn't see him. Pick six seventeen to green Bay. It would be twenty to seven at the half. Then in the second half, Tennessee fourth and two at their own thirty seven, Levis sacked by kway Walker. That would lead to Norvis and miss of a forty eight or a try and fourth and four, but defensive holding on Tennessee that would give the Packers new life. That led to a Malik to Emmanuel Wilson dump off that went thirty to the house twenty seven to seven. Tennessee would cut it to twenty seven to fourteen, but later in the game, second and ten at the green Bay thirty one, Levis was sacked by Kingsley and bare he fumbled recovered by Lucas van Ness. That was at thirty to fourteen. Green Bay ends up winning it. And I don't know, like Malik Willis has been so impressive. I don't know if you saw the postgame presser with Matt Lafleur, who he was basically one of these coach press conferences where he set out loud to the press what he probably says behind closed doors.
He just goes, you.
Think you understand, you don't understand, Like anybody was talking to me. He was talking to Talkie Kelly Findley, he was all all the reporters about leak. Willis like, you think it's impressive, but you don't get how impressive it is. Okay, mister football, we get it.
I mean I didn't know how the guy was to get it was even in the league anymore. I thought he was that bad with Tennessee. I it is, it's I mean, listen, it's been really impressed. There was some speculation that Jordan Love would play in this game. We thought that he would not. Yeah, Jordan Love probably going to play in this game. I said, green Bay minus three, and that's assuming Jordan Love plays. Yeah, and that's where we are. You know, what's come down a little bit open, mainly three threes. We are down to two and a half. So Vikings have taken money. I don't think there's any surprise there. Again, two of the most impressive teams to start the season to me so far, and this is yea, mainly two and a half. There are a couple threes out there.
How about the we talked about last winless, how about last undefeated. You have the Chiefs, you have the Vikings, you have the Steelers.
That gets you still have.
The Bills as well. Steelers, Man, Vikings, Steelers, and Seahawks. What's the most sustainable of that group of three?
Uh, Seahawks. I would agree the fact that the Vikings and the Steelers are in this Vikings look great.
Give him a shout because he was the first guy who's like, I think the Vikings are good. He's right, they're legit. They're not like the Pittsburgh Legitimately, I still feel like they might not get to their win total.
Minnesota is a good football I think it's gonna be tough for me to keep the Vikings out of my top ten tomorrow. Oh yeah, for sure.
By the way, the last half of our top ten are for KOFTA. They really are.
I mean the fact that Cowboys are still lingering in mind stop it all right, whole bunch more to get to an hour number two guessing lines looking for value. In Week four in the NFL, the numbers told the story. Now he's done.
It's a Those idiots will believe in the analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander.
Our number two.
But numbers gave it the sports betting network, Visa dot Com game plus. I heard radio, YouTube, TV how are you taking a sim We appreciate it. It's Gill Alexander. It is Kelly Bidlin guessing lines for week number four in the National Football League. And Kelly, this is one of these shows where I'd like to say we're far behind where we need to be.
Yeah, we are. I'm not worried about worried.
We know we always get there.
What's next? Al Right? Steelers are Colt's early windows Sunday, still.
By the way, on Sunday, Still on Sunday, by the way, sports avant Sirianni is like a better running bad second, guessing his numbers, not trusting himself, and now can't make the right decision. And then that guy says, is it time to mention little known facts about Mike Tomlin Well, the Steelers are three and oher was seven to seven game dicker twenty eight yardfield. He made it ten to seven. Boswell misses sixty two yard or before the half, It's ten to seven Chargers. At halftime, Boswell would tie it up a ten apiece on the thirty eight yard fields would get picked the first play after next time. Pittsburgh had the ball by Bud Dupree, but the Chargers will go three and out. The key of that sequence justin Herbert was hurt on a first down sack with and that's a little more than midway through the third quarter. He would not return. So when Oswell hits a thirty yarder for the Steelers to go up thirteen to ten, early fourth quarter, Taylor Heineke was in. And at that point, really it was only one touchdown that would put this game away with Herbert in, with Herbert out, and that's what Pittsburgh got. Eighty four yards five plays field to Calvin Austin from fifty five out twenty to ten Pittsburgh, and that is Katie bar the door because Steelers would actually kneel it out at the Chargers. Two twenty to ten was your final fields twenty five of thirty two for two forty five, one touchdown, one picky sack twice, six carries six yards and a touchdown. The Steelers held the Chargers to one hundred and sixty eight total yards. I am told that is not good.
Game was over when Herbert went out.
YEP, Indianapolis. Who you said they're playing at Indianapolis? Anthony richardson your how you're feeling about your MVP.
Ticket kare not great Bob, it's the I'm really excited about my will Levice to lead the league at most interceptions, ticket Gil except for the guy who I bet MVP might beat about, Anthony Richardson. I went back and watch the not Great Bob's clip from mad Menwsoka. Not great Bob.
Anthy Richardson ten of twenty for one sixty seven, two picks, no touchdowns, Jonathan Taylor twenty three for one ten and two touchdowns Pittsburgh minus one and a half. I said, split the difference between the three and the pick on.
The road, ding ding ding one and a half. A couple two's out there now, but yeah, one and a half. You are all over that. Let me get this straight. I have been pretty dead on it everyone except for that other one where it was completely off on which is I said the Rams would be three point favorites, and you tell me the Bears are what Bears are? Two and a half point favorites. But are you gonna back that gill I with all those injuries.
I will not be mowing you over to get to the window now, least not right now.
Right. Maybe you're interested in it later, maybe next still early window on Sunday Broncos at Jets.
One in two Broncos at the two and one Jets. Jets will have extra rest here. Obviously, they beat the Patriots on Thursday night. We talked about that Rogers had a great game and they just dominated the Patriots four hundred to one hundred and thirty nine in total yards, two sixty seven to sixty one on the ground, and doubled them up more than doubled them up in time of possession Denver yesterday, though, Man, they came out of the gates against Tampa Bay. They were phenomenal. Six plays seventy yards, Knicks to Sutton for twenty two to start, then two plays later to Reynolds for thirty one. Three plays after that, knicks in from three seven to nothing. Broncos later third and four for Tampa Bay at their own thirty. Baker, picked by Brandon Jones, returned to the Tampa Bay nine that would end up Firth and goal at fourth and goal at the one, Denver's up seven to nothing. This play might have been the most incredible play in the NFL yesterday.
To me. They pitch it to Jalil McLoughlin, who looks to be completely.
Penned in by Anthony Nelson. This is fourth and goal at the one by Anthony Nelson. He jukes him, he speeds around another defender and somehow scores and Denver leads at fourteen to nothing. If they could have done a touchdown probability meter when he had the ball in the backfield, I'm telling you it would have been zero point h four percent at one point. It is incredible that he got into the end zone. That was amazing. Fourteen to nothing, Broncos, it'll be seventeen to nothing later. Denver would have it first in ten up seventeen at the Tampa Bay forty, and then Javonte Williams was hit by Levonte David, he fumbled and he was recovered by Logan Hall. Tampa Bay would drive it down to make it seventeen to seven, Baker to Godwin, five out, and at that point you're like, Okay, that fumble might have turned the entire game around. We're still in the first half. But Lutz would kick a field goal to make it twenty to seven before the half, and here this is all you need to know about the second half. He're all off Tampa Bay's drives ready, Tampa Bay punt. Tampa Bay punt fourth and three at the Denver twenty five. Baker sacked by Nick Benito, second and goal at the sixteen. On the next Tampa Bay drive, after Baker was sacked by Dondre Tillman to Kate Otten hit by Riley Moss fumbles, Brandon Jones recovers. That was with a few minutes left in the game. All the while they're kicking field goals. Are the Broncos five? I'll score twenty six to seven the Broncos outright winners as the underdogs keep on coming home in the NFL, not only covering but cashing outright, Broncos get off the Schneid good on bone. Nicks had himself a good game twenty five to thirty six for two to sixteen, and they held the Bucks to two hundred and twenty three total yards, and they sacked Baker seven times. Denver's defense was phenomenal. So in this one, I'll say the Jets minus six and a half?
Am I too high? No, you're not high enough. Just seven and a half or.
Eight out there right now? WHOA, Okay, that's a little much. I actually, yeah, you know what, I actually like this better than I like the Rams Bears game. If you're telling me, okay, so more than seven. I'm taking the Broncos defense. Okay, yeah, I'm taking the Broncos, but I'm really taking the Broncos.
You're not taking bone Nicks.
I don't think the Broncos defense specifically is available for that bad Broncos.
I'm taking all that game. That game helped helped out his season so far. But man, and that was I think the Bucks. I was just thinking, while you were going through that Bucks and Saints, I think you can say the same thing about right they are. They are not as bad as they looked yesterday, but they aren't as good as what they looked those first two weeks.
The Bucks, for sure, because the Bucks got crushed in total yards by the Lions last week too. Yes, yeah, yeah, what's next.
Let's keep rolling through that. Okay, let's go two Eagles at Buccaneers.
We talked about both of these the Nick Sirianni Show for Philly, but they still win. Hurts twenty nine of thirty eight for three to eleven, no touchdowns, one pick, He was sacked four times. He lost to fumble Saquon Though seventeen for one forty seven and two touchdowns on the ground, God are ten for one seventy the game of his life, including that huge sixty one yarder that saved the game for Philly. They outgained New Orleans four sixty to two nineteen and then Tampa Bay and defeat Mayfield twenty five to thirty three. As we just mentioned, sack seven times, Bucks held to two hundred twenty three total yards Philly minus two and a half.
I won't go quite the three two and a half or two everywhere right now. So we are all over that one as well. Okay, I like the Broncos. What's next? We've got an early windows still Bengals at Panthers.
The oh to two Bengals again. They play Washington tonight in the second of the two Monday nighters. Remember Jacksonville Buffalo to begin followed not followed by but staggered start. You like the staggered star?
Oh yeah, yeah, I love it. I don't prefer the stagger star. I like when it gets to halftime. I can just concentrate on another game.
Okay, Cincinnati at Carolina tonight, all excuse me? Next week? So Cincinnati plays tonight, but Carolina good on Andy Dalton and the Carolina Panthers. If you're Bryce Young, you gotta be sitting there on the sideline thinking to yourself, Man, maybe maybe maybe I'm just not cut out for this league.
If you listen to this, watch this, buy your drink sometime, it's all I can think.
I like you, Bryce, you know, you seem like a good dude.
That feels so bad.
I felt so bad for Carolina. Just a completely different football team. By the way, remember that one hundred and twenty five to one I recommended on Carolina winning the NFC South last week fifteen to one.
Now a game. Wow.
Seventy yards on nine plays to start, Dalton to Chewba Hubbard, Chewa Hubbard is so happy to see Andy Dalton from six out seven to nothing Carolina. Less than five minutes in later, Vegas would tie it up. Las Vegas would go ninety seven yards on ten plays. Minshew to Trey Tucker for fifty four the Big Chunk Eve eventually Alexander Madison in from two seven to seven late first quarter. But then Carolina ten plays seventy five yards Dalton, Deonte Deionte Johnson he just loves having Andy Dalton there for twenty three on third and fifteen from their own thirty one. That was the key play that Dalton Xavier to get for thirty for thirty five. Two plays later, Dalton to Deontay perfect pass on third and goal from the five touchdown fourteen to seven Carolina, nine to twenty eight left in the second quarter. Carolina later in the second quarter would get it back on their own thirty two with one twelve left, four plays ending with Dalton de Deonte for thirty five, then to thiel In for thirty one that would make it twenty one to seven. Adam Feln, hurt on the play, would not return, and then it was sort of academic in the second half because Carolina would eventually go up thirty three to seven. Sanders In from one on an eighty four yard drive, two point conversion failed thirty three to seven. At that point, the Raiders benched Minshew put in O'Connell final score thirty six to twenty two Carolina in a route five hundred and fifteen more survivors gone on on the Raiders in this one. Dalton twenty six of thirty seven for three nineteen three touchdowns. He becomes the first quarterback this year, in any game to throw for three hundred yards and throw three touchdown passes.
How about that? No way say that again, Gil, There's no way that is possibly true.
The first quarterback in almost three weeks of National Football League play that has thrown three touchdown passes and thrown for three hundred yards in the same game.
What is this season? What? Yes?
And that more than anything shows you. There you go, that more than anything shows you how poor quarterback play is league wide. Quarterback play defense is doing the cover two so every it's only only you know long plays are are minimized. It's all to me. It's the preseason being shortened. It's just a confluence of things. The parody in this league is if Pete Rosell's dream of parody has never been more true.
Yeah, we've talked about it's been crazy. The h that Adam feeling injury was weird. Man. It almost felt like the It almost felt like the like it's like I'm giving it one last great play. Yeah, like type like it was he used up everything he had left about that catch. I thought he got that wind knocked out of him. At first. I guess I was like, it has to be wind knocked out, shoulder or head. And then he starts grabbing his hamstring and you're like, what Hubbard. By the way, twenty one for one to fourteen, five catches for fifty five in a touch, a four thirty seven to three thirty one total yards advantage for the Panthers. Uh, placeholder. With Cincinnati still having not played tonight, I said, Cincinnati though, minus six on the road, Let's not get crazy. You're a little heavy. Five to five and a half more than no man's laying. Okay, yeah, right, So so far, I like Denver the most, I think of all these Yeah, I mean we get through there, we got through four there, I think, right, all right, we're getting there three. No, no, therefore, yeah, I like Denver the most because the Jets, I don't, you know, like so many of these games. I don't know if we learned a huge amount about the Jets against the Patriots, but uh, I'll take more than a touchdown.
That's the point of the exercise. We got more to come week four. Trying to look for value here in the NFL, right here on guessing lines on a numbers.
Game, numbers game on the Sports Vetting Network.
Back on a numbers game live from Circa Circa Sports Resorting Casino. That is what it is skill Alexander Kelly bedlinting live from the Mothership. Here in Derek Stevens Empire, we get tweets beating the book badger better. Oh I like this one, he goes, great show, thank you, sir. Regarding how many entries and Circus survivor is ideal, last year, the last thirty survivors bought in with an average of five and a half entries. The last ten survivors last year, the average buy in was four point seven entries, which, by the way, when I was talking with Pessic before the season started and pressed him on this, what do you really think the optimal amount of entries is? And he said somewhere in that pocket as well, which is exactly the pocket that I do every year, which is five.
Yeah, that's where you've kind of got to, right, five s think anything more than that is just redundant. I really I think if yeah, I think you're right. I love having multiple entries. I haven't gotten to five yet. It was a little too rich for my blood. But the I think you're right. Four or five. Probably Here's the thing.
While I say that about me, I'd like everybody else to get not only ten, but thirty or so that the pod gets to fourteen million to two hundred sixty six thousand Playmaker seven six point nine. The Lionel G. Williams says, has anybody noticed Malik Willis.
Is being very productive? Yes, we were talking about him.
In the NFL. Coaching overall is awful. He is now being properly coached. If the last two games he has played in had been his first two games, the perception of him is one hundred and eighty degrees in the other direction. Shaking my head, Lionel, you might be completely right about that last point. Might very well be. Coaching is everything, and getting coach I mean the way that Matt Lafleur pointed out, he goes getting supported by his teammates. And he cannot speak more highly enough about how Malik has taken to the game plan on these games.
It all goes back, though, to the conversation, we have quarterbacks with quarterbacks all time. I don't blame these coaches in these front offices for it. Look, you try, you try to go in on a quarterback in the draft it doesn't work out, you got to move on as soon as possible. These guys get forced into action way too early. Yep, I understand that they do. But you need to figure out if you've got something or not. So I don't think I don't think you should be a surprise guilt. If we see more stories like Malik Willis down.
Line, well, it gets back to the again. I'm gonna say it for the tenth time, the Jordan love thing. Right, if you get to hold a clipboard under the same you know, you know, in the same organization, the same coaching staff for years, and by the way, on you know, in his case, under a Hall of Fame starting quarterback, that's the.
Big part, right right. Most of these guys don't have that luxury. Most of these teams don't. Sure not today.
Back in the day they alst did seven oh two Steve Sports see the proxy.
Oh no, here we go.
Hashtag Bill's Mafia coming, he goes. When the Bills win by ten BLUs tonight, can they finally get some love in your top ten? By the way, did you see the great game digs hadding a blowout loss yesterday? I bet he was the only happy guy in that locker room. Losing Digs was additioned by some traction hate Stefan Diggs. Bill's mafia all over it. By the way, I still love Jesse Bogola. There's nothing you can do about it. We have one more guys, Yes, JP fits seven. I so look forward to Mike Alvarez's tweets and gillies Mom's voice about his Eisman candidacy. Yes, when Eli Holstein becomes legitis, Oh Eli, please? When did you have your Barmitz and trip Tepper?
Yes?
On in game opportunities took the Giants money line profit boosted early in the first quarter at Cleveland was a Survivor slash Deshaun Watson fade and a play on the desperate zero to two team.
Well done, man, they tried to tease you with boosted in game. That's wow. Yeah, I didn't know. I wish we had boosts. I wish we I wish we.
Even had the word boost in our vocabulary.
I think Caesars throws out like one or two of them. All right, we got more to get to, all right. Last early window game, Jaguars at Texans.
Oh, okay, Jaguars played a night against the Bills. They are six and a half point dogs at the moment.
Is that correct? Six and a half?
What do we five and a half called five and a half on jackson six Stroud in defeat for Houston twenty of thirty one for two fifteen before he was taken out of the game. Houston had eleven penalties for eighty eight yards. They again, as I mentioned, had ten third downs of ten plus yards to go Jacksonville sight on scene, I say, Houston minus four next week and what you know, before the season looked to be, Oh, this is the big AFC South game between the Jags and the Texans.
Maybe it will prove to be Yeah, this is Texans four and a half. So you're pretty pretty spot on right in the middle there, four four and a half. I basically across the board. Uh, okay, into the late window. Four five Eastern one O five Pacific Commanders at Cardinals.
Oh, this is exciting. Washington Place tonight. Arizona. We didn't talk about Arizona and Detroit yet Detroit goes this is weird game Greade, first half grade, first half of football, and you're like, oh my god, they can't set the total high.
Enough I had an over fifty one and a half in this game.
Denver opening actually Denver Detroit opening drive nine play seventy yards. Montgomery in from one, seven to nothing, Detroit less than five minutes in. Then Arizona comes right back. Eight play seventy yards. Kyler to Marvin Harrison Junior. He's got to be the Rookie of the year leader at this point for sixteen early on in the drive, than Kyler for twenty one himself. And eventually Kyler to Harrison from ten out seven to seven about five minutes later. Then Detroit thirteen play seventy yards. Took him seven minutes and forty one seconds. Golf to a mon Saint Brown from five out thirteen to seven, Detroit twelve twenty seven left in the second quarter. Jake Bates missed the extra point though, You're like, oh, that's gonna come back and haunt him. Thirteen to seven later, Detroit go seventy two yards, but eighted this. Ah, how about this play? All right, it's thirteen to seven Detroit, they go seventy two yards. But in the middle of this drive the clock goes to two minutes. You see this, so it's going two two two to.
Oh one, and it's at about man.
It's about two minutes point five four seconds when the ball gets snapped. Yes, okay, they won hunt. Yeah, it's my clock one hundred percent of the time. Let that play go on, except not in this game yesterday. And what ends up happening is Golf gets hit the ball, the ball goes up in the air and was returned for a touchdown, but the officials say no, sorry, two minute warning. The whistles had blownk which, by the way.
They had, but still is completely inconsistent with every other game we've ever seen in life. Okay, I all I could tell people was it made me feel better than it was and the least whistles were blown on the field. Fine, yes, gil I win. Have we ever seen a two minute warning clock? Be that watched that close up?
I've never never ever happened before. And instead the Lions get the ball. They convert the third and twelve with a Gibbs fourteen yard run. Then three plays later, Golf to Saint Brown on a short pass, who pitches.
It back to Gibbs, who takes it to the house. I was so sweet.
The remaining twenty Duriel Harris and Tony Nathan shout out, old schoolers, know what I'm talking about? It like hell, they're not more plays like that. Twenty to seven Detroit. Prader would make a field goal twenty to ten Detroit at the half. Guess what that was? The score almost the entire game the rest of the way, And because there was just punts and picks and golf wasn't particularly good, there was you know, four down plays where Montgomery was stuffed for no gain, on and on. Arizona eventually got a Prader forty five yard field goal to cut it twenty to thirteen with three forty eight left, but then an eighteen yard completion of Saint Brown on third and eleven really meant and then golf had a nice little run. Arizona would never see the ball again. Ballgame twenty to thirteen Detroit Kyler twenty one of thirty four for two oh seven in defeat. Arizona's gonna be more than a three point favorite against Washington. I'll say four and a half.
Yeah, you're pretty much spot on. Let me just double check if we've moved it all in this one. I bet this on the look ahead at four and a half, we're out to five five and a half on the Arizona side, which I think with Commander's sight unseen, that makes some sense. I like cards gonna like the over. I bet him already. Okay, now all right, four of five Eastern Patriots of forty nine ers.
Oh oh, that's gonna be a big spread. And we'll we'll see who's back for San Francisco in this game. New England extra rest. Jacoby Brissett was twelve.
Of eighteen for ninety eight, was sacked five times against the Jets Purty yesterday, and I agree with.
How you said it. That might have been brock Perty's most impressive game. If you watch this football game, you could not help but think to yourself, Oh, even the doubters have to get that.
He's awesome. Dude's a baller.
Pretty twenty two of thirty for two to ninety two, three touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked ones ten for forty one on the ground. He did lose a fumble and Joe Jwan Jennings that will always be in defeat the Juwan Jennings game. Eleven for one seventy five and three touchdowns. They outgained the Rams four twenty five to two ninety six, but lose. I'll say San Francisco by ten as a starter, think ten and a half.
As where it opened. Everywhere we got it. We are up to eleven a couple places already. I bet the under in this game under forty and a half for me on that one, all right. Four to twenty five Eastern Browns at Raiders.
Oh god, one in two Browns one and two Raiders. Brown's in defeat losing to the Giants. Yesterday, as we talked about twenty Watson Deshaun Watson twenty one of thirty seven for one ninety six. He was sacked eight times by the New York Football Giants.
Yeah, as bad as he was. That what happened in the in the trench? Is there?
That was the whole game Cleveland got dominated? Could it be that like that?
Remember Cleveland played Dallas Week one and Dallas crushed him. We're like, wow, two good teams. Dallas looks awesome.
I feel like that football game completely destroy royd me on both.
Of these teams. Yes, yeah, yeah, yeah it is.
In the end.
They both suck bad like or is are the Cowboys like okay? And the Browns are terrible. Maybe that's what it means. I think they both are, babe, it just doesn't mean anything.
Detroit is I mean, excuse me. Dallas is terrible on defense, yes, terrible. Cleveland is just, oh god, how much money they're paying.
I was screaming for Jamis yesterday. I was screaming, give me a shot.
Cooper was seven for eighty six, two touchdowns receiving, but again, the Browns were held to two hundred and seventeen total yards. A lot of that has to do with the sack yardage. And then Las Vegas Minshew was eighteen of twenty eight for two fourteen, one touchdown, one picksack twice. O'Connell in relief nine for twelve for eighty two, one touchdown, no picks. He was sacked once, and they had a four thirty seven to three thirty one disadvantage in total yards in their game against Carolina.
This is a pick them. I don't know what else to make this where Brown's one or it's a pick up.
Okay, what's a horrible football game?
A little too late to play the bite, but you you're at Tonio Piers post game. No guys were making business decisions out there, and we're gonna have to make business decisions.
Well, I can't wait.
I can't wait to run into him and the building parking lot. Watch out, he might fire you.
More games to get to, including another Monday night double header next week. Yes, we'll do that next on a numbers game right here at Visa the Sports Betting Network. Numbers game on vs. The Sports Betting Network.
Hey, don't forget to check out our website v SIN dot com, Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state. Oh that's a crowd.
Favorite betting tools. Betting guys. Got some deep dove baseball stats in there. Front page obviously, all about tonight's two games Jaguars and Bills. Zach Cohen all over that, and then the Commodoores against the Bengals. Zach Cohen all over that as well. Tyler Shoemaker on his college football he shoot Index Week five predictions.
I don't know.
Maybe he has a video of him dunking a basketball in.
There as well.
I never know.
Adam Burke all over a first touchdown scores tonight and beyond. It's all there.
Steve MacKinnon Vsin dot Com, shake it out, we get tweets at beating the book. Always appreciate the feedback listen. I do grateful best listeners in the game Tailgates Sports. Oh boy, didn't catch the first hour, so not sure if you discussed the Mahomes rushing yards probab Well, we haven't gone to Kansas City yet, so we haven't.
It was nineteen yards. He had thirty yards going to the last drive.
He went backwards on his kneel, on his knees for minus thirteen yards to finish with seventy worst beat of my life. Yes, this is reminiscent.
He's done this before of the.
Super Bowl, the pandemic super Bowl, right right before this pandemic, where the same thing happened in the Super Bowl, where Patrick Mahomes's kneel downs are not just your garden variety one or two yard kneel downs. He goes back four or five and so this one.
He had three consecutive kneel downs at the end of this game, which collectively, as the gentleman says, was thirteen yards enough to take him way over his rushing total to just under it. Well, and he did. I like it. It's it's easy. I know it's annoying. It is terrible. Do you have a bet like that? But he did need to burn some time. He did clock right, that is the point of what he was doing. And that is again that is part of the details as to why the Chiefs when people are saying, oh, the Chiefs always get the plinko at the end, part of it is because they attention to details. Yeah, right, and we'll get to it how they Yeah, they were. He had to extend a play so that the so that the clock and the play clock would be advantageous to the Chiefs, which again is we talked about a couple of these kickoffs earlier, how the Colts didn't take the ball out of the end zone when they could have eliminated a play for the for the for the Bears who were trying to obviously have the best of the clock. Then there was another one in another game, and so some coaches get it and some don't. Patrick Mahomes completely got it with that. TKL Bets definitely jumped on that. Carolina Divis bet already offering me four times my bet, but letting it ride. All right. This is one of those we usually we usually crap all over the cash out option. I actually do with a bet like that one hundred and fifty to one one week, four extra money the next week. I got no problem with that. Jeff Jeff Schwartz, not our Jeff Schwartz, but different Jeff Schwartz says I did bet Carolina to win the division at one hundred and twenty to one for pizza money. The cash out option is now four pizzas. I'm holding the ticket and they're now going to be a Panthers fan this season. Thanks well, uh four times listen. I think I let I actually, I actually think I like the bet. I like I love that you made the bet.
I'd be cashing out. There is an easy go, easy come, easy go philosophy to that, right, cash out like it's gone. It came and went and you made money on Yeah, and then you don't have to worry about it the rest of the year anymore. I'll read some more here. This is from my This is from or Mike Stacks. I think the Lions would love to trade golf back to the Rams for Stafford. Golf has been so inconsistent this year. Please don't lose an Bengals. He throws that in at the.
End Brian Young, the notorious guns. He says with the quote of the day. When talking about the Raiders Browns game next week, I said, what a terrible football game.
Priceless, he says, so many of those Greg and boy C. He says, my wife was wondering why my morning hikes go from twelve minutes to two hours during football season. Thankful for the great show. Cue the music. I'm a survivor, he says, not till it's not till it's official. And then Jesse Wels, I know it's guessing Line's day, but are we really going to go the whole show without mentioning that Skeens is back to odds on favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. Skeens is back to a favorite after his last outing. We have to do a lot of baseball tomorrow because Skeens is not only the favorite yet. And by the way, I am not involved in that. If you're just asking me what my gut is about what the voters are going to do, and again we're handicapping voters.
I think it's Skeens. I think it's Skeens. We didn't because we didn't get the plus three ten. Yeah, we got all boogie last week for us. Bogie is exactly what we were. By the way, Gladys Knight and the Pips boogie boogie, great song. But we have a lot to talk about baseball because with our bets, the Tigers are now in playoff position. I grabbed the plus four fifty last week night. Tigers have a one Tigers and Royals both have a one game lead over the Twins, who are just crapping the bed down the stretch in a epic fashion. But the Royals are like, please, we're take it from us, and the Twins won't oblige. But the Tigers were our bet. They're they're looking great here. And remember with six games left, the Tigers finished with three against the.
White Sox, which is awesome. That's that was part that was integral to the bet. And then in the terms of case of the Braves missing the playoffs, the Mets and the Diamondbacks still both have a two game lead over the Braves and now comes the Braves three games set with the Mets starting tomorrow. But the beauty of the Mets maintaining the two game lead with their win last night on Sunday Night Baseball is if they only win one of those three against the Braves, they will have it still on their racket heading into the last three games, and if they win two of those three, it's over. Sorry, Mike went crazy, it's over. If they win two of the three, we win the bet there. We also win that Vson contest, which we're expecting, big guys, right, yeah, exactly exactly what's next?
All right? For twenty five Eastern one, twenty five Pacific Chiefs at Chargers.
Although there's the Chiefs and the Mahomes thing.
Chiefs, as we talked about, beat the Falcons because and again Raheem Morris's behavior down the stretch made absolutely no sense.
You could have kicked the field goal the first time you decided to go for it. They didn't get the flag. Maybe they should have. And then the second time he's calling timeouts. Why are you calling timeouts?
Man? What are you doing?
Called one successfully tried to call another. Mahomes was twenty six of thirty nine for two seventeen. Like his stats have just been like, you know, kind of where she Rice is the entire offense twelve catches for one ten and a touchdown, and the Chargers, as we mentioned, were held one hundred and sixty eight total yards in their game against Pittsburgh. Herbert knocked out of the game twelve of eighteen for one to twenty five. I said, the Chiefs by six on the road, and I don't know. We'll have to monitor as by the way, we said yet last week you had to monitor Justin Herbert's status heading into that game.
I don't know.
That's why all the Chargers teaser people and we had fezek on. They were all so gung ho about it, but it was like, do you know if Justin Herbert's okay and then he got hurt further in this game.
I mean, I'd even say I Love looked better than I thought. There was a better chance Love was gonna go with it Herbert when they were showing pregame war Bucks and then yeah, Opposon ends up happening. You are a little light on this. This opened like nine and a half. Most places this is down to seven. Though this game has had the most movement on it from the opener, Chargers taking money, Chiefs down to seven. It's seven everywhere I'm looking at it right now. Did you say love when you're talking in the Packers, I'm talking I really thought that Jordan Love might actually play in that game.
Yes, I say, I'm like, Jordan Love doesn't play.
I mean, it made no sense for him to play.
But yeah, uh so I said six and it is seven. You said yeah, seven?
Okay? Next, all right? Sunday night football Bills had Ravens.
Yes, oh that's good. Bills played a night of course again against Jacksonville'll talk about it in a minute. Jacksonville, excuse me? Buffalo two and oh, Baltimore one and two. They get off the schnight against the Cowboys, but barely. Baltimore has a problem at the ends of games, don't They almost gacked excuse me, gacked it last week to the Raiders after having a big lead, and then almost gacked this one to the Cowboys.
Gacked technical term. They get very just kind of nonchalanted.
I don't get it, Like it's am I remembering correctly that like that game against Tennessee that they lost last year was the same kind of thing. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe it maybe it wasn't quite as quite as uh.
Yeah, but like it does feel like it's become kind of a thing for them.
I mean, it'll get in your head if if it keeps happening. Lamar twelve to fifteen for one eighty two, but fourteen carries for eighty seven in a touch and then Derek Henry had his best game as a Raven twenty five for one fifty one and two touchdowns. One catcher twenty three again four hundred and seventy six total yards for the Ravens. They outgained Dallas two seventy four to fifty one on the ground. They have thirteen penalties for one oh five. Got to clean that up. Baltimore by four and a half.
This one right now is two and a half. Come on, stop it.
I know I am so much more down on the bills than the general market is, but I'll take Baltimore.
Already teased up bill. I teased up bills with the Bengals tonight.
Give me the Ravens two and a half. Yeah, so I like the Broncos and Ravens.
The best so far. All right? Ready for Monday night? Sure seven thirty Eastern Titans at Dolphins.
Uh oh, I guess we didn't talk about the Dolphins game Tennessee zero and three. They could clinch. There is a scenario where they clinch last winless Tonight. Levis was twenty six of thirty four for two to sixty, but he was sacked eight times. He threw two picks he lost to fumble. They were out gained by Green Bay three seventy eight to two thirty seven. They were minus three and turnovers Miami. They trailed ten to nothing against Seattle. Then Gino was picked off the deflection by Cater Kohu. Set up at Seattle the Seattle six yard line, but Skyler Thompson and the Dolphins couldn't do anything. Illegal motion five yards back, then one yard passed and the six yard pass third and goal at the four. They throw it away. They had to settle for a chip shot field goal. Then Gino deep to DK for seventy one. It was seventeen to three, seventeen to three Seattle at the end of the first quarter, and honestly, that was kind of the game. Miami was set up in.
Plus territory after a Burrios forty four yard punt return at one point, they went nowhere three and out. Miami was just completely inept and the skylard got knocked down in this game, and they had to go to Tim Boyle at one point so ball game. It was twenty four to three. Seattle finally put it away late with an eleven play ninety eight yard drive to ice at Charbona and from ten to make it twenty four to three, and for all intents and purposes, the game was over at that point. Skyler thirteen of nineteen for one oh seven sack five times as the starter. Only two hundred five totally yards are the Dolphins, But I but it's against Tennessee, so I'll say they're favored by two and a half. I did open Tennessee one. Most places, We're got to pick up most places. Oh stop it, give me the Dolphins. I like three now.
Numbers. Game on VSA, the Sports Betting.
Network, and overget after the show at the top of the hour, it is Money Moves with Patrick maher in for a stormy Today and Mike Sammich. That's at noon Eastern. Then stick around for prop Points with John Hanson at two pm, followed by Make It Rain with Adam Sein from three to four pm. That is the VSON schedule. Follow the Money after all those right here the Sports Betting Network. Gil Alexander we Get tweets at.
Beating the book always appreciate the feedback every day, but it's always particularly amusing on guessing. That's when folks, when folks are chiming in on stuff. This is from uh, what do we got Los Vegas five to one four? Yoh, can you spell the technical term gagged? Is it ka c k ed or c A G E T lmao?
He says, I.
Actually, I'll tell you what I if I ever write it, it's g A c K ed, yes, ghacked?
Yeah, yeah, it's usually good in tennis.
She gacked it.
Ebbie Lalouge sixty seven. Larry Brewer, I have the Braves not to make the playoffs bet as well. My new fear is that the Diamondbacks are completely in reverse. It is possible, or is it possible? He saying the Braves could lose out to the Mets and still make the playoffs. Well, it's technically possible, but I wouldn't worry about the Diamondbacks. Diamonbacks have a three game set against the Nationals. I'm more worried about the Royals in the American League losing to the losing out to the Twins more than I am the Diamondbacks losing out to me it's the Braves versus Mets binary James Sutt not gonna lie pretty happy for once that I'm not heading to Vegas to watch the Browns of the race. I guess I'll just have to deal with F one construction. That looking any better this year? Well it's not as long, right, yeah, but it's not any better. Like I mean, there's some mornings I leave my building and they're like, you may not turn south. You can only go north or the opposite. But I go, but I work north and they're only sending me south. They're like, too bad. F one rules the city.
So yeah, it's bad.
Chance, Copper Pott, are you serious about the Patty rushing prop? I had a boosting four leg same game parlay, and I assumed the under was dead. This explains the extra chips my account in my account this morning I had not investigated yet. Happy Monday morning. There you go, Chance, you got a chance, Copper Pott. And then from Hank Savings, he said, I'm gonna say that someone is mismanaging the game. When both the Chiefs and Falcons are trying to call time out, that's a pretty good assumption that somebody must be mismanaged. In the case it was Raheem Morris. This is from let me read a couple more of This is from from John Mulla, who says, Duriel Harris Tony Nathan my favorite in gameplay of all time. Thanks for the mention.
I needed that reminder as a completely distraught Finns fan that was at the game yesterday.
That one went over your head, didn't it.
Yeah?
Oh, this was the maybe the most famous football game of the entire decade. I mean, I don't know if it's the most football game of a decade, but it's one of the greatest games in NFL history. Chargers Dolphins in the playoffs. I believe it was a playoff game in Miami. Is the Kellen Winslow game for the Chargers. He was just like he had to be carried off the field. He was doing everything. But one of the greatest plays in the game was the Dolphins had a hook and lateral and da Dariel Harris, who flipped it back to Tony Nathan, who untouched ball in the air went to the end zone. So that Detroit Lions play reminded one of them.
It is wild. Would you see it executed like that? Though? Where you're like, why don't you do this more often? Like that's it, Jamier Gibbs a special weapon. You should try to do this.
Tom Stephen Tennessee consistently overvalue this year auto bet against until lines reflect negative impact of Levis. Listen, That's what I was saying. Like I of the game so far, I loved I like Denver getting the points against the Jets. I can't even remember what the second one was. But I like the Dolphins, Like I don't as bad as the Dolphins look with Skylert Thompson and we don't know what his status is heading into next. Well, you liked the Broncos, I said, the Broncos, there's one in between. I like the Dolphins. If you're if that's a pick him, I'll take the Dolphins at home. They still got the better talent.
Yeah, I mean the I mean I think the I was on Titans yesterday with Buddy and that I think the most surprising part of that was just this was a team we thought could be okay stopping the run, and Green Bay still went in there and just did whatever they wanted against all. So, even when you're you're searching for positives about some of these bad teams. I'm with you on Tennessee. I don't know what you're what positive you're pulling out from that team right now.
I like Baltimore against Buffalo was the best at the one Bainbridge dewise where his scheme's the favorite. My Far Away Place still has him at plus two plus two ninety stale line. I should jump on three question marks.
Yes, yes, you should minus one forty five at DraftKings grants, betting X factors. This is that golf no play due to two minute warning whistle was so bad. Same with a lot of the bad PI calls and the Anthony Richardson forward progress whistle that took a Bear's interception away. Rough weekend for the Zebras. We have what more money I get? Yeah we do. Pi's were bad. Yeah, the pi's were bad. With one of the part about that two minute warning. The other word that's really weird about that is how often like it's usually pretty clear whether the offense is trying to snap the ball before it or they're just gonna let it, let the clock run, let the whistle brow right. It didn't really seem like they had a planted place there. It's just as betters, think about the number of times you've been on the wrong end of the clock going to the two man warning, there's an extra beat, they don't call anything, They let the play go and you get crushed. It's so weird and like Golf. Golf looked like he was like, what are we doing here? It clearly ran out. It was like what do you think? Like what? I was so confused? Yeah, all right, eight fifty. This would a little later on Monday night Seahawks at Lions.
That's the second of the two Monday night games. That's that's a good game. Three and oho Seahawks two and one Lions. Seattle held Miami. As I mentioned, two inner five total yards. Miami was one of twelve on third downs. By the way, that Seattle Miami game. Also, here's the other thing about the Zebras you know, meny penalties were called in that game. Twenty two total penalties for one hundred and seventy seven yards, eleven penalties for both the Seahawks and the Dolphins. Detroit beating Arizona. As we mentioned, Golf eighteen of twenty three for one to ninety nine, two touchdowns, one pick, zack twice Montgomery twenty three for one oh five In a touch, I will say Detroit minus four.
Yeah, you're pretty much all over four four and a half A lot of four and a halves out there now sounds about right, Okay, so I like it. I don't know where else you're setting this line, right, it's got to be in that dead man area. Well, it's gotta be more than three. Let's put it that way. Okay.
Tonight doubleheader and again staggered, not one finishing and then the other starting.
It's what is it? A is a ninety? It's been a difference seven thirty eastern. I think it's seven thirty at eight.
To fifteen, Okay, so forty five minute difference between the kickoff times. And remember it's the early start for Jacksonville at Buffalo seven thirty eastern from high Mark Stadium in Buffalo, where the Bills are five and a half point favorites. I have the Jags plus the points, largely because I'm just doing a little bit of transitive property here, which is Buffalo probably shouldn't have beaten Arizona. They were down seventeen to three. Kyler completely didn't see a wide open Marvin Harrison junior late they probably lose to Arizona if he does. And then Buffalo beats a Miami team that didn't have to of for much of that game. So yeah, they deserve credit for that win. But I'm just not going as crazy on the Bills as others are. I know you love Josh Allen more than any human on Earth. And then Jacksonville could I mean Jacksonville could beat too, and oh but they're not.
I get it.
That weird turnaround against the Dolphins where they were headed into the end zone and I think it was at TN who fumbled it, and then the next play was eighty yards a Tyreek and then they had all chances in the world against Cleveland, couldn't do it. So you give me five and a half based on that, I'll take the points.
Yeah. Results wise, I think this is one of the least impressive starts so far. We talked about like Packers and Vikings. Jaguars. Man, they've been rough so far. I got nothing in this game. Like you said, it's really just Josh Allen versus Jaguars. I don't really know that there's a whole lot more to this Buffalo team. I going against them, but I'll just be watching this one, hopefully it's fun. Oh.
By the way, Nik Rules for Society reminding me that I like the Rams. I do like the Rams best on that number I had against the Bears, because I think the Rams should be favorite, not the Bears. But the Rams are so banged snick that I just I don't know if I'm racing to bet that one, but thank you for the reminder on that. And then it's Washington at Cincinnati. Me and a whole bunch of other folks have Cincinnati and Survivor. And again, let me just repeat, because where we started the show in circa, there are only sixteen hundred and thirty entries left headed into the night. By the way, the most are on the Bang, but there's a good handful on the bills as well. There's seventy one entries on the Bills, yep, but there's nearly a thousand on the Bengals. But out of the fourteen two hundred and sixty six entries that started, there are only sixteen hundred and thirty left and we're not done with week three yet. So I love Cincinnati. I have since I bought the Cincinnati down to seven earlier in the week. I like them, and Survivor I like him straight. I have them in a teaser leg with Minnesota, as we talked about last last week. I just don't think the Bengals are going to go zero and three against this outfit. The Commander's defense is awful. Jayden Daniels has been good through two weeks. He hasn't been tremendous, but he's done a lot with his legs. As I said, he still hasn't met Terry McLaurin. The two should probably meet each other that line.
But I just think Joe Burrow and the Bengals are gonna They're gonna out Washington is so overmatched in this game. Talent wise, Yeah, you would think so. T Higgins right back in action. This we the Ccinnati team that is big. I have them tied into two teasers right now, one with Buffalo for next week. So if anybody is looking for something tonight, that is the way I approach them. Would expect points would kind of lean over in this game as well. Forty six and a half. I think I Commanders throw up some points tonight, but I think, like you said, just talent wise, they're gonna be a little overmatched.
You know what I did mention about this Circus Survivor. You know the intrinsic value of each entry. Currently, each remaining entry in Circus Survivor is now and we're not done with Week three, eight thousand, seven hundred and fifty two dollars and fifteen I'm sorry now by the way, now we're at the point of season where I have to know that ninety percent of the people are already out of Survivor. Did ninety percent of the people want to hear us talking about Survivor?
This is like the this is for other people that said it. The Panthers bets cash out just like if I was a survivor, still cash out for like a grand or something, right now, that's right, the Carolina bets are I'm glad we got. We went from one twenty five to one to fifteen to one in one week. But if they're often you four times just making a four to one take somebody, that's right, why not?
But then they have one twenty five.
It's gonna be the first cash but they have the problem is then you have to fight your human brain. What if they win and I lost out on a undred twenty five to one,