Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon give their thoughts on every game on the Week 11 NFL slate on Monday's Beating The Book. What are their initial thoughts for the Week 11 slate of games? Also, some impressions on Week 10.
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Idiots will believe in the analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander Gone Good.
Monday Morning Tune is a numbers game of dcent V sports betting Networks, dot com games. iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Of course the VS and app should probably start things with that. That's right. Watch we're listen live. It's a numbers game right here, kil Alexander Kelly Bild live from Circa. How you doing, man, okay, how are you doing back from your your absence on Friday? Yeah?
Yeah, back back feeling okay? Uh but yeah, we got a lot of good NFL to discussion.
That doesn't sound like one hundred percent to me. Not plan Hurt's plan hurt. I'll just have to carry it.
That's right, as always, buddy, No, not as always?
Can we update Circus Survivor though, real quick at the top before we get into guessing lines for a week eleven in the National Football League, where we try to extract value from the upcoming weeks NFL lines, we have eliminations, uh, specifically forty six of them, thirty of which were on the Giants, fourteen on the Bears, two on the Falcons. That brings the number of current live entries down to one oh five one oh five out of the initial fourteen thousand, two hundred and sixty six. The intrinsic value of each of those remaining one hundred five entries, Kelly isooooooo one hundred and thirty five thousand dollars one hundred thirty five thousan eight hundred nine dollars and fifty two cents.
So we have not only past one hundred k, we have.
Uh going by it. We're soared by it. One of the one oh five is one of the co founders of profit X Oh really, yeah, he's been on the show before, not Dean, but Luke. See if Luke is wanting to come on the show, and then we're what we're two Sundays away from the whole Thanksgiving strategicy. That is going to be awesome.
And what I found out like a whole two weeks ago that Mitch Moss was.
Still in it. I was shocked he's still in it. He got bounced yesterday. Yeah, I think that's what That's what Bill had in the news. Who did he have? Giants? I believe that's tough.
Which also we get to the part of the season now where we've been elimited it for so long. When I see these things, I'm like, how are there so many people on the Giants?
How about that? Were there's so many people? Well? Function of what you had left right exactly exactly.
That's where it gets easy to criticize at this point when.
You're at when you've been out of it. Congratulations to whomever. How many people are responsible for those one hundred and five entries. So we'll try to keep that going as well now for those who or at least keep it, keep the track of it. Of course. Uh, here's the deal. If you if you're new to guess lines. What we do here is I don't know the lines. Kelly will tell them after we go over yesterday's games, and we do it through the prism of what next week's matchups are. And the point of the whole exercise is to extract value. Try to have a first reaction that shows value based on our guesses visa v what the actual lines are. Shall we begin, sir, let's do it guessing lines. Fired up week number eleven and.
There is Yeah another clight Thursday night down shut down, just love it, scratching right there, Dan, Yeah, there you go.
Commanders at Eagles this Thursday night. Oh, I never heard this lug trail part. I'm sorry. Commanders at Eagles. Yes, what a Thursday night football game. Commodores lose to the Steelers in a game I just pounded my fist on the desk in a game that could have gone either way, but Mike Tomlin's Magic Beans wins out in the end. What a football game. Pittsburgh in a scoreless game. Seventy seventy yard drive Wilson to Pickens from sixteen out, great Cats seven and nothing Pittsburgh a little less than halfway through the first quarter. Later Pittsburgh up seven and nothing. They kind of let Washington back in this game. It was a fourth and fifteen at their own sixteen, and they decided to go with the fake punt. James Pierre was completely uncovered. Miles Kilbrew gets it to him, but it's dropped. Washington set up at Pittsburgh sixteen. Three plays later, Eckler in from one. We're tied three forty four left in the first quarter. Later, though, Washington gave it right back. Corlis Weightman punt muffed by Ola mede Zychaius Ben Scarneck. How do you pronounce that again, Scarneck? You that's your guy?
CoronaCheck Scoruncheck recovers Kelly Love pronouncing that guy's name.
Pittsburgh set up in the Washington fourteen. Wilson a Friar moved from three out of fourteen to seven Pittsburgh early second quarter, Then in a fourteen to ten game late second, late second quarter, Washington ninety four yard drive Jayden Daniels to Luke McCaffrey for twenty three the big chunk on third and fourth of Pittsburgh thirty eight. Then Eckler eventually in from one. Washington leads at the half seventeen o fourteen, and and then they perfect the double dip. They come right out of the third quarter with a seventy one yard drive Daniels to McLaurin, the incomparable Terry McLaurin for fifty four to open the drive. Three plays later to McLaurin. Have I mentioned he's incomparable for sixteen on third and ten to the one McNichols in from there, And the Skins are up twenty four to fourteen, early third quarter, and you're thinking, maybe maybe this is the day. No. Pittsburgh comes right back seventy five yard drive Wilson to Pickens for thirty four. The big one on second in twenty from the Washington forty six leads a few plays later to a Naji touchdown in from two twenty four to twenty one. Then later when it's twenty seven to twenty one later in the game, now Pittsburgh matriculates the second and seven at the Washington eight. We were just talking about this off air Warren for seven stripped of the one by Kway Martin recovered by Jeremy Chin, and you're thinking, oh my goodness, Washington is team Magic not Mike Tomlin. Yeah, it's sure, Phella. Yeah, that felt huge.
I thought you you and the commanders were going to be looking good after that.
Yeah, not so much because then and you just have to tip your cap here. Sometimes you just kinda tip your cap. Pittsburgh gets the ball back again, down six. They're set up at the Washington forty six with five forty six to go. They get it to third and nine at the Washington thirty two. Wilson under pressure, the perfect Russell Wilson moon ball, the perfect moon ball to Mike Williams at the end zone. Touchdown twenty eight, twenty seven Pittsburgh with two twenty two left, but Washington has time take over at their own thirty five with all three timeouts and the two minute warning with two sixteen left, Fourth and nine in midfield with one twenty eight left, Daniels to Ertz right at the sticks, rulled just shy of the marker, and it survives replay for the Steelers. Katie bar the door. That's it. Well. Actually, the Skins did have another chance because they had all three timeouts left, but on fourth and one at the Washington forty nine with one h two left, Johnny Newton jumps off sides induced Steelers win at twenty eight twenty seven. Huh.
I don't even want to complain at the celebration, but it was a little over the top, like we drew him off sides.
We won the Super Bowl. The rookie, the rookie jumps. Of course he does listen that play at the sticks. I can't. I can't engender the outrage for it. He was probably whatever was called on the field was going.
To say, exactly, it's that right, it's it's it's We might argue about a lot of these rules in.
The NFL, but that's not one of them. Aren't we used to this one by now? Yeah? And Washington is exactly what I what I have said in the last couple of weeks. They're probably like the eighth best team. They probably can't beat the great teams. This was a game they could have won very easily, but they didn't. Twenty eight twenty seven. Pittsburgh coast to seven and two seven and two, seven and two. Oh good. Washington only in the end ended up with two hundred and forty two total yards. Jaden was fine as seventeen for thirty four for two oh two, No touchdowns, don't picks. Who was a and they're playing in Philly. Philly beats Dallas. Not a whole bunch to say about it. Well, actually, you know the first half of this game is going to get sort of washed away that it was actually competitive. Dallas first play, Cooper Rush fumbled. Dallas. First play of their second drive, Cooper Rush fumbles at their own twenty. On the exchange, Milton Williams recovers Philly set up at the Dallas seventeen. Third and six of the Dallas thirteen hurts the Saquan who's hemmed in, but somehow manages twelve anyway, they get took his push from the one. They're up seven to nothing midway through the Midway through the first it was seven to three when Philly matriculated again. First play, second quarter, first and ten, the Dallas twelve hurts pick by Trayvon Diggs in the end zone. Great pick, and then Dallas down four, goes all the way downfield, first and goal to six. Zeke hit by Zach Bonn, fumbles into the end zone recovered by Cooper de Gen three to zero, four left in the second quarter. You're like, wow, Dallas could have taken the lead there. Philly. Second play of the ensuing drive, second to nine at their own twenty six, Hurts sacked by Micah Parsons. He fumbles. Great for Dallas to have Micah back, even though it's not really mattering. In the end, Maris Leu foul recovers. Dallas set up the Philly six again, down four, chance to lead. They can't get in. They settle for an rby twenty three yard field goal. But remember now, last two minutes of the second quarter. This is a seven to six football game, seven to six game between the Eagles and the Cowboys, and that Ladies and gentlemen, will be the peak moment of the Cowboys in this football game, because right after that, Philly went eighty four yards in eighty five seconds, Hurts the goddard from fourteen out fourteen to six, and the route was on. Here's all you need to know for Dallas in the second half. You're ready for this. Dallas three and out. Dallas third and nine at their own thirty one. Rush stripsacked Dallas, Ferguson fumble Dallas Trey Lance now in the game picked by CJ. Gardner Johnson, Dallas punt that's the Dallas Cowboys second half. They held Dallas Philly did to one hundred and forty six total yards, eleven first downs, and they induced five turnovers for a plus three turnover margin. Washington at Philly Thursday night and NFC East Showdown between the seven and three Skindies and the seven and two Eagles Philly minus three. Gotta be right, three, three and a half, three and a halfs. There are three and a halves out there as blatantly disrespectful as what that is.
I believe most spots opened this three, but we we got a lot of three and a halfs out there.
I think these are two. I think these are two playoff teams. And you know, whoever wins their season series, whych they'll probably split. But if one of these teams wins, you know, you know, big step on a limb here, But if you sweep this series, you're probably winning the division. Yes, yeah, a huge game, awesome game. Can't wait for this one. Eagles. This is a little bit more of a.
Proven game for the Eagles to be than it is for the commander. This is you know me, I'm a bit higher on the Eagles, I think than most, but Okay, the past few weeks have looked awesome. Let's go and do it against a real opponent now and with the Commanders, and that's it's a big time game.
Say that again. Say this about the Commanders. They while they did not beat Baltimore, they lost by seven. While they did not be Pittsburgh, they lose by a point, could have easily won, just as easily. They do not get blown off a field ever, Like, this is a really solid football team, and they are what they are at this point. They're probably a year or two away. They're probably the Quinn Essential make the playoffs, maybe win a game, then get crushed in the set playoff game or get beaten the first game. But that's that's their level probably, But also like what a huge advancement from a year ago, right, that's the and then you make the that's a great point no matter what. If you told any any Commodore's fan that before the season started, you'd be like, really, gimme that. This is kind of its kind of like where to like just to take it to another team.
It's kind of like the Bears conversation of the past week, where I'm like, what did we all expect like, I don't.
It's not like their win total was eleven and a half. Bro, we'll get to them. I mean it was. It was even more. Chris Filika Eloso reminded me before the show Good Good that we got in that Bear's adjusted season win total under. Yeah, when we did, because that yesterday, we'll get to them, might have been their last chance to win a football game. I'm being completely serious.
Well, what was the Remember we were looking at it last week and it was like under was juiced to like minus one sixty five or one seventy or something like that. Didn't even they didn't want your buddy on the unders. Was it even that juice to I think it was really Yeah, I think it was. They there is a scenario where they go from four and two to four and thirteen.
Yeah.
Yeah, but that's that's for later. That was about Philly and Washington. I said, Philly minus three. You said it's minus three or minus you have three three and a half. There are three and a halves out there.
Okay, guessing lines we look for value, maybe we'll find some more difference between the guests and the actual the guests and the actual coming up.
Numbers. Game on v said the Sports Vetting.
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Four more than c J. Stroud, five more than Deshaun Watson. Deshaun Watson's still third. O.
There By the way, I went to a deep dived, a deep David car dive thing on this his first five seasons. Here are four of his seasons, the four seasons where he played all sixteen games, seventy six his rookie year, which is still the record sacks, then two years later and three and four years later forty nine, sixty eight and forty one. Oh my god, anyway, Caleb's got thirty eight. The Bears managed one hundred and forty two total yards in this game, out gained three twenty eight to one forty two. They had eleven first downs, and they were one of fourteen on third. Chicago has not reached the end zone in back to back games. That has gone twenty three straight offensive drives without a touchdown, which marks the longest active streak in the NFL. Or As Merril Hodge said about Caleb Williams, Startell has that ready, or we'll get that later. Here's the thing. Yeah, it's not all Caleb's fault, because obviously there's an offensive line that should be considered in all this. They have no running game as a result of that offensive line. But yeah, it's not working out. I'll say, Packers minus five and a half on the road. Put it in no man's like.
You are light, I believe. Come on, really, six and a half is where?
Wow? Yes, I thought I was. I thought I was doing it on the high end. Yeah.
No, okay, Packers six and a half.
So you're telling me if the Packers were at home, they would be damn near a ten, like a nine point ten point favorite. Yeah wow, okay, cool?
Next Yeah, yeah, they'd be ten at least ten.
I want to hear that Merril Hodge thing. What's the next? Next? Don't let me know what it's ready? Okay, Jackson Lions, Oh, Jagson Lions. Oh the Lions. Okay, Jags. Yesterday lose to the Vikings, but somehow cover the number three to nothing game Minnesota Jacksonville seventy yard drive behind Mac Jones back in from one, seven to three Jacksonville. That would be sort of the high water mark for the jag Wires yesterday Minnesota, then this is this was the story of the game, and Minnesota overcame all of this. These are the next four drives for Minnesota. Minnesota from their own sixteen, they get it to second goal, the Jacksonville seven. Darnald much time picked in the end zone. Oh no, I skipped one first and tenth of the Jacksonville thirty one twenty seven left in the first quarter, Darnald picked by Foye sad olaquan. Next Minnesota drive from their own sixteen, they get it to second goal, the Jacksonville seven. Darnald much time picked in the end zone by Monteric Brown. Next time Minnesota got the ball, Andre Cisco misses a sure fire pick on first down three and out. Anyway that'll get washed away in history. Then on the fourth drive in this sequence, Minnesota matriculates third and fourth of Jacksonville eighteen. Darnald picked at the goal line by Darnell Savage. So literally it should have been four straight drives where Darnald got picked and said it was three of four. No matter because they're playing the Jacksonville Jaguars. John Parker Romo added a field goal to make it seven to six Jacksonville, and then in the fourth quarter, Romo squeaks in a thirty four yarder to make it nine to seven Minnesota. Jacksonville second play, second and thirteen of their own twenty seven football on exchange, Harrison Smith recovers that led to another JP Romo twenty nine yardfield will make it twelve to seven. Jacksonville still had two chances down five to win this game. The first try, second and eight at their own thirty two. Jones was picked by Byron Murphy Junior, and then the next time they took over their own seventeen with two forty two left first and ten at the Minnesota forty three, they were forty three yards away from winning this Jones picked by Cameron Binam And by the way the game ended, you thought the Washington jumping off sides was bad. Minnesota at their own one, they're set to punt, but on third down of the sequence they get it just you know, they get some room pass the goal line, but it's still third down. Unnecessary roughness penalty on Jacksonville in getting the ball back. Oh yeah, ball game brutal. And then the Detroit Lions for those of you who missed this ball game last night. This was the to me, this was the headline of the of the NFL weekend, even more so than that Bengals Ravens game on Thursday. Really, oh, this game last night? Are you kidding me? The Detroit Lions overcome five count the five picks from Jared Goff to come from behind to beat the Houston tech Since twenty six to twenty three, second and eleven at their own forty one less than two minutes into the game. Golf deflected in the air picked by Jimmy Ward, sets up Houston at the Detroit thirty three. They convert a third and ten. They convert a third and sixteen. Mikes it in form eight, seven to nothing. Houston later it's ten to nothing. Might have been the three and out. Golf then hit Jamison Williams instead for twenty three on third and sixteen that matriculated the ball down the field for them. Eleven plays, seventy yards golf to Laporter for twenty touchdown, ten to seven Houston, and you're figuring, Okay, Detroit's gonna come back real quick. Nope, not the case. Thirteen to seven Detroit first and ten their own thirty five, Denico Autry hits Goff's arm as he's throwing it, picked by Henry two two. Houston set up of the Detroit thirty six leads to another fair baron field goals sixteen to seven, and then late in the half six plays sixty six yards for the Texans in forty two seconds. Stroud to Metchi from fifteen out. Nice to see him get in the end zone to Metch you for twenty five earlier in the drive three to seven Houston Goff picked the third time by Kamari Lassiter on a deep throw just to you know, hail Mary at the end of the half. So that's three already, So it's twenty three to seven. We go to the second half. Dan Campbell's being interviewed by Melissa Stark. He needs a turnover, he says, Stroud immediately picked by Carlton Davis. But you know what Jared Goff does, he goffs he immediately right second and eleven at the Houston twenty throws another pick to Kamari Lassiter in the end zone less than a minute and a half into the third quarter. So that's his fourth pick. But Houston has pinned at their one. By the way, shim, note that Detroit's money line at this point was plus four h nine. How do I know that? I think you know? I know that? All right? So the Cape wasn't that so Detroit. Now they're down twenty three to seven. They're set up at the Houston forty four after a three and now for the Texans, twelve forty four left in the third quarter. Three plays golf to Laporter for thirty seven, sets the Montgomery in from three twenty three to thirteen. Two point trive fails. We're still early third quarter, Houston, second and fourth at Detroit thirty. Stroud has tanked Dell wide open in the end zone. Stroud throws it laid picked by a leaping Carlton Davis for the touchback. Goff returns the favor, picked again by Kaylin Bullock. So it's still twenty three to thirteen. Now this whole time, you have to give the Lions the ultimate credit. They're still they haven't abandoned the run. They're not panicking to five picks, No big deal. Where the Detroit Lions were awesome. Detroit seven play sixty three yards GoF to Saint Brown from nine out twenty three to twenty with eleven thirty eight left. Next time, Detroit gets the ball after a Houston punt, they take over at their own seventeen with eight twenty one to go. Baits fifty eight yard field goal, which scrapes the right up right, the third longest field goal in Detroit history. We're tied at twenty three with five oh one left. Houston now still tie game. They can still still on their racket right. They get to third and five of the Detroit forty with two minutes left. Terry and Arnold interferes with Xavier Hutchinson on the third downplay. It goes uncalled fairbairn fifty eight yard field goal. So your options are we punt, we kick a fifty eight yarder, we go for it on fourth and four because Dan Campbell just kicked a fifty eight yarder. There's a little peer pressure involved here, I believe yeah. And Tamiko Ryan says, let's kick a fifty eight yarder and fairbar and the snap was high. We'd never had a chance. It was way wide left. Detroit gets the ball back. They kind of settle by the way, a little weird sequence at the end. They kind of settle for a Baits fifty two yard field goal. This one scrapes the left upright and Baits. After the game, is talking about how he just wants to be a vehicle for the Good Lord above, and man the good Lord Above was scraping uprights for him. The Lions win it twenty six, twenty three. The last time a team came back from a deficit of at least fifteen points in a game where they also threw five picks was fifty four years ago, nineteen seventy Johnny Andanitis? Did it you remember that game? Oh? Yeah? And as for golf, He becomes the first quarterback since Matt Ryan in twenty twelve to throw five picks and win a game. He also becomes the first quarterback since Tony Romo in two thousand and seven to throw five picks on the road and still win. Lions have gotta be monster favorites against the Jaguars. Ten and a half too well, yeah, too low? It is, uh thirteen, I believe it when I saw. That's probably a better though. Yeah thirteen, that's probably a better though. Mine was way too long. And we don't know if it's Mac Jones or Trevor Lawrence.
Yeah, I don't know if it matters.
Don't know if it matters. Coming back.
Numbers, game on Fe said, these sports vetting.
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It's really good. Let's try this again, check it out. Watch this wich? Would I do here? Caleb Williams he is not special, He is not special.
There's nothing special about him.
There you go. Every time I say that, now, I want that to come up. Hodge, you got it, Meryl Hodge, everybody, all those pavlov dog thing we do here? All right? What's next?
All right?
Next up?
Early Windows still Vikings at Titans. Vikings at Titans. We talked about the Vikings. Darnold ended up twenty four of thirty eight for two forty one but the three picks. But they held Jacksonville to one hundred and forty three total yards four to h two to one forty three yis and didn't cover barely one. As we just mentioned, Jacksonville had two shots to win it at the end, twenty eight to ten was the advantage in first downs.
Can I give you the time of possession? Advanagas forty two nineteen to seventeen forty one. Thatsridituous, feel right though? Hey God, Tennessee. Yesterday the Titans lose to the charge. We'll get to the Chargers. But Tennessee it was three to nothing Chargers. Tennessee's high point was they had a seventy two yard drive your guy Billy Levi's to Calvin Ridley from forty two, seven to three Titans. That throw looked good, Yeah, four to twenty five left in the first quarter. Later it's seven to six Titans. Fulk misses a forty nine yarder and then the Chargers are like, that's all we needed eight play sixty one yards Herbert in from four on fourth and one, thirteen to seven Chargers. Then later the Chargers had a three and out, but they they punted, not butt, they pun it. But so they punted on the three and out, but not before, not before there was this really weird sequence at the end of the first half where the Chargers were getting really frisky with it up six in their own territory and they made like they made near mistake after near mistake in that sequence where you're just like, Okay, maybe you guys should just like knock it in. Yeah. God, just remember there.
Was a scoop and score that they thought that the Titans scored, but it didn't survive replay that whole thing.
So thirteen to seven Chargers at the half. That was the only calamity or near calamity the Chargers would experience. A Folk did get a twenty seven yard field goal to cut it to thirteen to ten, but then the Chargers Darius Davis fifty six yard kickoff return sets up with seven play forty three yard drive Herbert to quin to Johnston from sixteen out on third and eight. Twenty to ten Chargers late third quarter, then later in ninety five yard drive Herbert to mcconkee for thirty seven the biggest junk Hassan Haskins eventually and from one twenty seven to ten. The game would end twenty seven to seventeen. Billy Levi's ill advised Billy Levi's not quite the nine sacks of uh again. Now I can't say his name because they're gonna throw the Merl Hodge thing out. Not quite. I really I fixed myself. Not the nine sacks that the guy who quarterbacks the Bears had bear quarterback, but seven seven sacks for Will Levis.
Uh.
Minnesota is seven and two, the Titans are two and seven. They don't feel like they're five games different from each other. Maybe like three games different. But Minnesota is still gonna be a favorite on the road. I'm gonna guess I'm gonna be low here. I'm gonna say four and a half. Yeah, you're low six and a half. Oh that feels like a lot. Yeah it does. But uh, but do I want to read the Titans? I do not. I was gonna say it felt like a lot that the Chargers were legged this Titans team too, and I didn't want anything to do with that. Kevin O'Connell was just so happy to get through that when he was like, oh, thank god, as it should be.
I mean, that was I mean, you broke doubt perfect and those I mean those interceptions at the beginning, Oh my gosh, those are you rarely see games one after something.
There's a few things yesterday, Sam dar No one's going to talk about him for comeback Player of the Year anymore. After yesterday, No one's going to talk about Jared Goffer MVP. After five picks yesterday Thursday, I was like, all right, yeahs is a two guy race. So I'm low on Minnesota. So I'm I like Tennessee. But that's not again, that's not a team. I'm racing a bet. What's next? All right? Next up? Raiders at Dolphins. All right, Raiders were idle. They're two and seven. Dolphins play tonight against the Rams. The Dolphins are two and a half point dogs. Now two and a half against the Rams. Rams have taken money. So this is sight unseen. By the way, do you have any play on tonight's game? No, I don't. I guess this is all. Is this whole movement just on the Tyreek hill kind of Tyreek hill. We don't know if he's playing. Yeah, so because what this was like one one and a half yesterday?
Yes, yes, gone out to two and a half. I mean, look, I would I would lean Rams, uh kind of? I mean lean Rams and lean the over. This might this might turn into another team total over for me. I might just go Rams team total over tonight.
As far as as far as Las Vegas at Miami. I I just as a placeholder put Miami and No Man's Land at five and a half. This one is seven. I'm low on everything. Wow, seven seven full seven. Okay, this is a pretty great and there's none of by the way, there's nothing that of the difference that we've talked about yet where I'm.
Like, oh, that's wrong, that's absolutely wrong, especially like when you get.
To this time of the year. You know, I think my guesses have just been deficient. What's next? All right?
Next up, still in the early window, Rams at Patriots.
All right, another one we can get through quick because the Rams again play tonight, hosting the Dolphins two and a half point favorites, and the Patriots we talked about. We didn't talk about and we just talked about the Bears side of it because there's really nothing to say about the Patriots performance other than that they were playing there the Bears, and I guess we got to give the Patriots defense credit. Sure we could do that. Derek May was fifteen of twenty five for one to eighty four in the victory against the Bears, and again they did. He hold the Bears to one hundred and forty two total yards a three twenty eight to one forty two advantage. Again, they held Bears to eleven firsts and one of fourteen on third down. I will say the Rams minus four and a half is a placeholder. This one you are closer to.
It is five and four and a half to five and a half.
Okay, I was gonna say I saw a five and a half.
Earlier, but Circus got four and a half on this game.
Let's do one more, all right, Let's keep on cruises. Throw early window. Browns at Saints, Browns at Saints, two and seven Browns coming off a bye at the now three and seven Saints. So you're telling me the Saints were two and oh then they lost seven in a row before yesterday. That's what I'm telling you. Saints beat the Falcons yesterday in a uh. Are we allowed to call it an NFC South clash when two teams, when two teams in the NFC South, meat is a clash? Shy? You think you can say that with any division? Gilliap this this division in particular, that I wonder about Blake Group a thirty eight yardfield goal three to nothing New Orleans early second quarter. And then this is another thing about yesterday. These last two weekends in the NFL have been so weird. Last week it was the the weird late first half offensive explosions, and then this week it's just like, okay, you got guys like, we'll get to him, We'll get to Moody. But young hey Ku misses a fifty three yarder with twelve o six left in the second quarter. You're like, okay, well it's fifty three yards. Then New Orleans fifty seven yard drive, Carda Marquez Valdez scantling from forty out on third and five, touchdown, ten to nothing. New Orleans, who looks even skinnier in the black uniform? Isn't that amazing how that happens? Really works? It really works. Do you remember when Pierre Garson went from the Colts to Washington And when he got to Washington, he looked like he was double the side? Only who did we trade for? Who do we sign? Ten? And we by the way, ten to nothing. Atlanta gets into first and goalf the New Orleans one down ten to nothing. Algier stuffs three straight times, so they decide let's give it a bijon. He scores ten to seven. New Orleans then first play on the ensuing drive car to mvs again Valdez scantling for sixty seven to the Atlanta three, and then three plays later Carda Valdez scantling from two out seventeen to seven New Orleans. Those were all three of Valdez scantling catches in this game. He was like a shot in the arm for the Saints. And then down ten, coup thirty five yard field goal blocked by John Ridgeway, so it remains seventeen to seven at the half. Later in this game, still seventeen to seven, Ku misses a forty six yard field goal, his third miss of the day. He has never missed three in a game before that, So that was that was honestly the story of the game. Yea Atlanta second and eighty at the New Orleans forty four cousins then picked by a honey badger with one fifty nine left in the fourth quarter. Then New Orleans third play, third play, third and four from their own forty four card deep to a wide open Alvin Kamara drops it, drops it, so Atlanta actually takes over at their own fourteen with one thirty five down three. At this point down three, it was twenty to seven at this point in the game. Sorry I didn't update the score twenty to seventeen. They're down three. They have a chance to do this after Kamara's drop one time out left Cousins to London for eleven to Moony for twenty one. New Orleans hold to New Orleans forty to the New Orleans forty nine, but then Cousins stripsacked Atlanta recovers, but way back at their own thirty two second and twenty nine with thirty four seconds left. They would get it to fourth and four at the New Orleans forty three with seven seconds left, and I guess you can't really They had no timeouts, so they were in hurry up, so you can't really hurry up a hail Mary. So they end up like hurrying up a throw underneath to Rey Ray and he's like and he's stopped short at the sticks, and that was the end of that. So there you go, twenty to seventeen New Orleans car sixteen of twenty five or two sixty nine, and that's your ball game. They were out gaying New Orleans was four sixty eight to three sixty five, but they still win it. I will say Cleveland at New Orleans. The Saints got to be three point favorites, right, that's what it is.
No, we're out to Saints, say one point favorite right now.
We're giving Cleveland that kind of respect? Yeah we are. I mean I get it the Saints word of that great yesterday. But okay, hey, Jameis wins the revenge game.
Bro.
I kind of like New Orleans there if it's only one, not with supreme conviction, but I'd lean there. Coming back more guessing lines, next.
Numbers game on VSA, the Sports Vetting Network.
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The I got to convince the bosses to get the podcasts on there because because it's so easy and convenient, like you said, just pull it up and you can kind of easily sort through stuff that we recently did. Wow, I'm surprised that. I'm sure they've thought of that. Yeah, I don't know, Kelly, I should say something. Bidelaw might have to convince them, that's right. With your persuasive powers, we get tweets and beating the book for goodness sake, I haven't read any tweets.
This is from Jeremia Westgate. I was on the Steelers, But what I don't get is why they didn't measure. That's interesting, Jeremi. I think it's because once you go to replay on that, stuff like the chains don't really matter anyway. At that point, they're simply reviewing the video of it. And again that play in Qui, this is Washington's final drive, as it turned out, because later obviously the rook jumped off sides, but this was if they get the first down there they are right on the cusp of field goal range. Yeah, that would give that would give them a chance. Was Zan Gonzales, It was not Cyber. Was Zan Gonzalez to take a lead in that game or to or to clinch it if they milk the clock enough. Zach Ertz right at the sticks. The video showed that the ball was at the yellow line, but they kept telling us, remember the yellow line is not official.
I love what they This is one of those few moments they decided to bring that up Gill.
Over and over and then he kind of pulled the back the ball back a little bit when contact was initiated. So I'm not sure they got it wrong. I'm not sure. I think it's who's that.
Jeremiaho tweeted that in Jeremi, I actually think it's a good point because I think the actual answer to that is they just didn't want to infuriate people more. Yes, because how often have we done this? When we see the replays that it's like, all right, here's the new spot. It's it's whole two inches up, bring in the chains, and then me and you will be sitting here today yelling about how how we still use chains for this? Chains exactly Las Vegas five to one, four yo. To lose a game by jumping off sides on a four down was brutal. Talking about Johnny Newton here, but to sit in my seat and be surrounded by terrible towels and Pittsburgh fans. I thought I was in He thought he thought he was in g D Pittsburgh. We need to blow up this awful stadium and move back to d C. Sheesh, Yeah, we do go back. By the way, Darryl Green shot this video on Instagram, the great Hall of Famer Darryl Green, and he's outside of RFK Stadium because he wanted to take him. Darryl Green, Hall of Famer, who had so many great moments in his life in that stadium, starting from his very first game where he chased down Tony dor Set and he was in his car RFK Stadium is fenced off and there's like you know, growth on the on the fence, like it's grown over, and it was just so got so emotional.
Sad about it because it's like we all spent so like the greatest days of my childhood are in that building and it's going to it's done well.
It was jamb Steelers fans yesterday too.
Well the FedEx was or Northwest part Northwest. Yeah, but when Philly, but when they play Philly, where they play Pittsburgh, sometimes the Giants just overrun with opposing fans.
It's over the Steelers fans or just it's incredible.
Yeah, Steelers fans will tell you when you say Steelers fans travel well, they're like, no, no, no, it's not that we travel well. We're just everywhere. Yeah, I was.
I was joking with the guys in the back before the show. It's everybody's grandma was born in Pittsburgh.
Apparently makes no sense, Like Jason H. Eleven, welcome back, Kelly Glad, you're better that Vegas flu can be rough. Cough cough, Jack, Eureka. I get Dan Campbell protecting golf's performance a bit at the end there, but not using Gibbs or Monty one last time to try and get closer than fifty two was nuts. Jack Eureka, if that is your real name, I was screaming this as well. I was like, what are they doing? Like you had time for an extra play, you're settling for the fifty two yarder, which which Baits scraped in he goes and some models had a punt as the best played than the fifty eight yard try for Demiko Ryan's kick for a Kaimi Fairbaron's kick that Demiko Ryans decided to go with not either his best, he said. Jack said about both coaches, I would agree. I thought that the Demico fifty eight yard decision was a bit peer pressure by Bates having just made a fifty eight yarder. And I think the field goals probably the worst option of the of the of the three field goal punt or go for it, given what the risk reward assessment is, because the risk of the downside is bad if you miss. And then I do agree, I was saying it earlier in the recap. The Lion's late sequence was very odd. How they're just like, yeah, sure, we'll.
Just keep the fifty two yards somebody's careers have been so hot and cold too this year. Like we were just talking about during the break, I pulled up Young Wayku because I feel like there's been a couple of times I feel like I've bet on the falcons recently where I'm likes Young Waykup just missing kicks two for seven over his last four games.
Is Young waycoup two of seven. And the Young Waykup thing is interesting because and we've talked about this before, if you ever re analyze these guys kicks and I don't, right, because who does? But coud I have noticed and I've mentioned it on the show. Coot takes two and a half steps before he kicks it. Yeah's how strong was his leg be? There's no wind up at all. He's like boo.
It looks like he's the first guy, like in the forties to decide I'm gonna take a step to the right like before my wind up.
But like a golf swing, that should lessen the problem, right, Yeah, because it's just like you're only bringing your club up halfway as your set off air.
So it's like, but no, I guess not. He missed three yesterday and probably a big, big reason they lost the game.
Jesse Welch, seems like Merril hodgecuts are the most elusive sound bites and A and G history. Yes, the always talking about the fact that we couldn't find it to because we found it. No, no, no, he's talking about like with the actual clip we couldn't find to begin with the first time, and now this one.
Now we're gonna Now we're gonna beat it into the ground, all right, use it all the time.
J C. JC five six two zero seven six. Nice to see Omaha Steaks. Omaha Steaks has gotten so big out of high school. That was one of my first jobs. Between Kirby Vacuums, cut Co Knives and Omaha Steaks, the trifectave door to door sales for him.
Nice.
Here we go, there's a tweet about JC the numbers. Guys, suppose every team is completely healthy. What's your super Bowl matchup? I'm not sure it's not Lions versus Texans. My point in all this the Texans are scary at one hundred percent, I mean super Bowl scary, he says. I am, first of all, I'm glad you asked this question. I am convinced it's the Lions and the Ravens. MM. Sorry, and I know.
And if Patrick Mahomes comes in with his cape and makes me an idiot again, so be it. I guess what I'll put one more other, one other team up there. It would be it would be Lions versus Ravens or Bills for me. So that just leaves me two teams to feel like an idiot with.
If Patrick Mahomes makes that leap. M okay. Ben Handover is a college basketball company, says Gilly, something to keep an eye on in college basketball. Louisville having trouble selling tickets to home games. They've been one of the worst teams ats the past three years. And if they can't sell out versus a ranked Tennessee team, they may be a free Quinn Fade at home and beyond there you go a little college basketball note.
Let's not go to the basketball games in Louisville.
Louisville. Louisville wants one of the great college basketball blue bloods. Yeah for real, they town that happening. Now you get better things to do on a Tuesday night. Vegas regular saying about the zach Ertz play in the Washington game, he says, I also put that on Ertz. He says his root was short and his momentum made that closer than it should have been. Vegas Regular, You're one hundred percent right. That is on the receiver to get past the sticks. That's not the quarterbacks job, all right, That one I was wondering about. Billy Bob Adds the real Solidad Adds the Skins lost that game because Ertz cut that root short. Ertz should have been at least a yard behind the sticks, beyond the sticks. They're absolutely right. It is on the receiver, fundamental fo The receiver has to know what I don't think.
He makes the catch though, if he doesn't come back to it, like I was wondering about that when I first saw it. I just I don't know if there was enough on the throw. I don't know if he's making that catch if he stays where he was.
Either way, that's plinko right that that whole game totally. It's just like it's a complete coin flip football game. Anyway, Thanks for the two. I mean, we can talk.
You can talk to the other side about We talked about Jalen Warren for a second, but it's like, okay, if that's a touchdown or something like this could be a Steelers runaway.
Well, and the Skins were up ten after the double dip, could have been them, you know, with a runaway, So we were I was just talking about this yesterday. The exact question is a great one. We talked about this with the World Series matchups, if you were doing a matchup. And I don't know who hasn't posted yet, but I think there is a Ravens Lions bet for me. I don't know what the number is on that as a matchup, but I don't care who wins the game, but I think that is. And power rankings are going to be fascinating this week because I've been saying, hey, look, I can't unseat the Chiefs, who haven't gotten to the Chiefs yet. I can't unseat the Chiefs at won. But guess what after last night, I got to unseat the Chiefs after the Chiefs Broncos game and then this Lions game. The Lions and Ravens to me are the best two teams of football. And the Chiefs, even though they're undefeated, like they have invented every possible way to win a football game. Yeah, but you know in your heart of hearts there I say this, so it's gonna clip this again. They're not as good as those other teams, right, question mark? Okay, this is where it's tough.
This is where it's tough because if there was, if it was any other team, if you saw, if they take away the names, right the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, Andy Rey, this was any other team, we'd be sitting up here yelling for regression.
Regression. You can't keep getting away with it. Of course we could, but like that's what the greats do, right, The Greats get away with this time after time.
Do you remember that game last year? And here's the thing I was pointing this out. Will Hill have me on is I should have been.
More podcasts last last last night, which was nice of him, but we were we were talking about this, and he pointed out that the Chiefs remember that Thanksgiving excuse me, the Christmas Day game where they got destroyed by the Raiders. And if you had I said to Igo, if you had told anybody, if you had whispered in there by the way, this Chiefs team still gonna win the Super Bowl, like you would have lost your mind. They haven't lost since then. It's a wild So what they're doing now isn't nearly as bad as they looked on that day. Yeah right, I don't know they are. They are are the fly in the ointment, that's for sure. More guessing lines on the other side, coming back the numbers told the story.
Then it's one of those idiots analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander.
Our number two of a numbers game at Visa d Sports Betting Network Visa dot Com Game Plus. Iheard radio, YouTube TV. Ever you're taking us in vson app as well. It's Gil Alexander, It's Kelly Bidlin guessing lines for week number eleven right here on a numbers game live from Circa. So far, kind of like a little lean on New Orleans and only given one you said against Cleveland, kind of like Tennessee a little bit. I'm not racing a bet that, Yeah, Tennessee at home against to where they playing again. I already forgot who got Tennessee Vikings Vikings, but not racing to bet. But that's about it so far. Let's say, if we can't find anything else, what's next? Early window Colts at Jets, the four and six Indianapolis Colts and the three and seven Jets. I'm just gonna say this in advance. This has to be Jets is three to me. Indianapolis yesterday against Buffalo. There's no way to make this game more exciting than it was, because it wasn't that great. But first play Flacco pick six Taron Johnson. First play of their second of their first drive, Flaco pick six to Taron Johnson. Then the route was on seven to nothing Buffalo. Well, not quite like that. Next time Indianapolis touched the ball first and ten the Buffalo thirty seven, Flacco picked by Austin Johnson. So there's that Flacco not great at football these days. Ten to nothing Buffalo, Indianapolis after a fifty nine yard Jonathan Taylor run. Two plays later, second to goal from the nine downs drops a walk in would be touchdown pass, then Flacco almost picked again on third, they settled for a Matt Gay twenty seven yard fieldal it's a comedy of air.
I feel like we saw it so many times yesterday. To the dropped walkins Hawkins.
Yeah, though Camara Skins had a dropped touchdown pass that later they scored anyway, but they had one on first down.
I have no idea how Stroud had that intercepted in the end zone. It was wide open that entire day.
Threw it so late ten to three. Then Buffalo with a fourth and three at the Indianapoles twenty eight Allen incomplete, intended for Samuel late first quarters. Then Indianapolis has a seventy two yard drive Flacco to Tyler Goodson from two out. We are tied to ten, nine to twenty two left of the second quarter, and then first play Allen picked by EJ Speed total underthrow by Josh Allen that leads to a Gay twenty three yard field goal, thirteen to ten Indianapolis six twenty two, six thirty two left in the second quarter. Buffalo then says, okay, enough of that seventy yard drive Allen in from thirteen seventeen to thirteen Buffalo late second quarter. And then Buffalo in the closing seconds of the first half, up three, excuse me, up up three at this up four at this point, seventeen to thirteen, third and ten at the at their own twenty seven with eighteen seconds left. Third inten at their own twenty seven with eighteen seconds left, instead of just eating it, Alan to mac Collins for forty four. He gets up off the ground and has the presence of mind to get up and run out of bounds heads up play. They end up with a forty seven yard bass field goal anyway, twenty thirteen Buffalo of the half. Indianapolis second possession of the second half, down seven Flaco strip sacked by Greg Russeau Lamar, excuse me, Damar. Hamlin recovers. Then Buffalo first play of the ensuing drive Allen picked by Kenny Moore Junior. He returns the favor. Indianapolis fourth and two, down seven Flaco sacked by Quinn Jefferson, and then Buffalo matriculates gets a twenty eight yard field will to go up ten. Then Indianapolis next time they touched the ball first in tent the Buffalo forty five Flaco pick by Taylor Rap just a comedy of bears, and then Buffalo with the eighty four yard killer drive. Katie barred the door cook in from two to make it thirty to thirteen. They would win it thirty to twenty. Buffalo wins, and they go to what are they eight and two? Now? The Buffalo bills They are eight and two Indianapolis we're talking about though Flacco ends up twenty six of thirty five or two seventy two. But the Colts gave up four hundred and fifteen total yards in this game. They were minus two and turnovers. And then there's the Jets. This was the only game that worked out easy pasy for me yesterday. This was a big blowout in football. Yeah, great call by you. Arizona thirty one and the Jets six. And this was the Paul Carr you know, I just think Arizona is a better football team than the Jets pick. And that worked out because first drive Arizona six plays, seventy yards, Murray to Connor for forty four down to the one, sets up a Connor one yard run two plays later, seven to nothing. They traded with they traded touchdowns for field goals early Spencer s Trader twenty five yard field goal for the Jets. Then Arizona seventy yard drive Kyler in from one, fourteen to three, Trader forty five yard field goal fourteen to six. Then Arizona seventy yard drive. This to me was the game. Here, seventy yard drive where it was a third and seven and it looked like the Jets were going to get the stop at their own third and seven at their own thirty three, Trey McBride breaks the tackle short of the sticks and is hurled beyond the sticks for a first down for a seventeen yard pickup. Seven plays later, Murray to Harrison Junior from nine out twenty one to six Cardinals, but not till Murray was nearly decapitated on a sack by Quincy Williams where he fumbled and recovered his own fumble, and then a third and eleven to McBride for thirteen play before the score. That was pretty much the game after that for the Jets, three and out, then a fourth and goal with the Arizona three. Rogers was sacked by Xavi or Thomas e fumbles recovered by Gazer White. Then Arizona with an eighty eight yard drive Kyler in from twelve to make it thirty one to six. That was your final two hundred and seven total yards for the Jetropolitans, by the way. Kyler Murray twenty two of twenty four for two sixty six three carries for twenty one yards and two touchdowns. Clayton Tune got in late Connor twelve for thirty three on the ground in a touchdown, five catches for eighty This is Indianapolis at the Jets. And I said at the beginning, Jets minus three, right, has to be yep, you're all over. That's that's the market's way of saying. These two teams stink. One team's at home. There's your line. If you want a positive spin on this game, it's the well, if you win this one, Gill, you're still in the playoff hunt. I guess sort of right, and he'd be like the eighth team. And even with the Jets schedule, you would be right, because Jets have a supposedly easy schedule even though they stink a football. Next all right, Next up we have Ravens at Steelers. Oh is this? The game of the week is Washington at Philly. The game of the week is Baltimore at Pittsburgh. The game of the week neither neither Lamar on Thursday. Remember twenty five or thirty three for two ninety four touchdowns, no picks, seven carries for thirty three yards. Pittsburgh in their win over Washington yesterday, Russell Wilson fourteen of twenty eight for one to ninety five three touchdowns. That beautiful moon ball to Mike Williams du that ended up being the game winner. Just an awesome pass. Pickens five for ninety one in a touchdown. How great was his touchdown catch? But he's amazing. He's no Terry McLaurin, but he's awesome. Held Washington two hundred and forty two total yards. Baltimore at Pittsburgh. Baltimore is a three point road favorite. Correct, they are a three point road favorite. There are some three and a half's out there.
Because I love losing money against Mike Tomlin.
Just love it. By the way, this is a new habit I've developed where I slapped the I shoul probably stop doing that. All right, Let's do one more. What do you got here? All right? Next up, we have four h five Eastern Falcons at Broncos Falcons. We talked about. They lose to the Saints and they dropped to six and four. By the way, Carolina Panthers only three games back in the wind, call Chaz.
Well, well for everybody, we got excited out there to better the ministry catch out down.
We catch out again. Cousins twenty three of thirty eight for three Zho six, Beijon twenty for one to sixteen to two touchdowns, London eight for ninety seven, Moony five for ninety six, four hundred and sixty eight total yards didn't matter. Okay, we gotta talk about Denver and the Chiefs. Denver, come on, Denver. Denver eighty yard drive in a scoreless game. Nicks to Devon Valley from six out, seven to nothing Broncos early second quarter, then seven to three, Denver, seventy yard drive. Nick to Sutton from thirty two out touchdown fourteen to three. Bronco Chiefs do matriculate seventy yard drive fourth and goal with a Denver two, they decide to go for it Mahomes to Kelsey from two out fourteen to ten. See Andy Reid doesn't take field goals all the time. Somehow, we don't talk about that afterwards. One four left in the second quarter, then Denver sudden drops a pass that would have put Denver in a reasonable field goal reigns. Instead, let's the sixty yard field goal attempt falls short. Remember that right. That play won't get remembered. Everyone will talk about the block field goal at the end, justifiably, but keep in mind that that dropped pass for no reason right probably probably was the difference between a made field goal and a missed field goal for Denver. So it remains fourteen to ten at the half. Now in the second half, fourteen to ten, Buttker twenty yard field goal on fourth and goal at the two. This time, excuse me, Butker makes a feel going to make it fourteen to thirteen. And then Kansas City later their fourth and goal with the two down a point, and they decide to just take the Buttker twenty yard five field goal to make it sixteen to fourteen Kansas City with five poin fifty seven left. Then Denver matriculates. They convert three third downs, including a third and six of the KC thirty on a Knicks to Sutton thirteen yard hookup. They run the clock down to one second left Lot's thirty five yard field goal try to beat the Chiefs and to give the Chiefs their first loss of the season, blocked by Mike Dana. You know how to end sixteen to fourteen Kansas City Atlanta at Denver. Denver's not bad. You know that question we asked last week. We're like, hey, who's that seventh? If you're going to give the Chargers a playoff spot. Yeah, it's a niff. It's a big gift. But if you are based on records right now, okay, maybe they banked enough wins where they can coast in Who's number seven? I think the Broncos are the leader in the clubhouse.
Yeah, I think so too, and that is why I make them a one and a half point favorite against the Falcons.
Let me guess the Falcons are favorite now this one? You were dead on? Wow? Hey, one and a half. I didn't think the which is not the easiest number to get it. I wouldn't think the market was ready to give them respect.
They are they are, by the way, it doesn't mean that they're full respect, right, they should be a three point favorite if it was full respect.
Yeah.
Still, I thought that I thought, the way that the market has been treating the Broncos that I was going to be way too uh, way too frisky on the Broncos side here. But apparently not. Spight end up being a bet for me too. Yesterday on Broncos Denver hey Man, Sean Payton and bow Nicks. Not bad at all? Could be a playoff team five. It's not bad, not great, But like this is, they're more well rounded than what Atlanta is.
You know what Atlanta's going to be bringing in their offense looks great, the defense struggles. If you can get some pressure on Kirk Cousins, I think it's completely different teams.
Any different from any other Kirk Cousins. You know, I know I don't pass over on passover, Kelly.
You know what we ask the kids ask why is this night different from any other night or from all other nights?
Right? We just asked this about Kirk Cousins. Why is this season different from any other Kirk Cousins season. It's not. It's the same thing. He is a fine Him and Golf are very similar in the sense that when they are not pressured, they are really good quarterbacks. Right. And the brilliance of the Lions, and we do not and I'll raise my hand. I don't give the Lions enough credit for this. Piney Sewell on the offensive line, they made that offensive line so good, and drafting Jamier Gibbs, they have running backs to not only run the ball well, but catch the ball well. And so Jared Goff is in this perfect situation where he's allowed to thrive. I get it.
He through five picks yesterday, We'll just throw those as cybers. A Kirk Cousins is similar to this.
Like, as long as he's not pressured, oh he's great. But as soon as anything goes wrong, God help him.
The one thing I keep coming back to with him this year, though, is he doesn't have the weapons he had a year ago, two years ago in Minnesota.
Yeah.
But yeah on paper, on paper, it looked like he would, right, But I guess not. Denver one and a half boy favorite hosting the Falcons. We'll come back. More games to get to right here on a numbers game at Visa these sports betting.
That one.
Numbers game on vs The Sports Vetting Network with Somebody sports and Action. There's no better time to put the Vison experts to work for you. Become a vcent Pro subscriber today. Get instant access to our daily best bets, nineteen hours of live programming, our Strength and Better ratings, plus our exclusive betting splits. Start your vsent Pro subscription today for as little as nine to ninety nine and see everything Visa has to up your betting game. Sign up today at vson dot com slash subscribe. That's VSI n dot Com slash subscribes Gill, Alex Sanders, Kelly Bidlin. We don't often say anything NBA related during guessing lines, but did I say this correctly? Is is chet Holmgren hurt?
Oh?
It sucks? Shut this league of yours? Zion breaking news from Shams Geronia Chams Trona chet Holmgren suffering a wright iliac hip fracture and a return to play protocol will be provided in eight to ten weeks. Yeah, so's go. Let's go through the chet Zion Anthony Davis. Oh, surprise, Anthony Davis. Anthony Davis has an eye injury. Okay, who are we forgetting now? All these guys, Joy MB Kevin Durant, Jo Kevin. We just we just rattled off the top of our heads. Six superstars in this league, six of them, honest is going to be hurt soon. Sorry, it's not funny at all. That's all right anyway, there's your NBA everybody, that's your that's your NBA update. We get tweets a B of the book, Michael Burns A Raven Oh, thank you for doing this. Michael Ravens, lions At Fan Duel Advocate skirmish as we used to call.
It, not posting the draft kicks to just check there.
Yeah, ten to one Ravens Lions give me that. Yeah, I like it, torch D. Oh, torch D. This is a great point. And you know you're reminding me because I meant to say this earlier when we were talking about the Packers and the Bears, he says. On last week's show on Friday Football Friday, Physick gave out an absolute look ahead gem with the Packers minus two and a half against the Bears. I doubled down, torchs D says, and also took the money line at minus one sixty. Can we please get a guessing lines for games two weeks out. It's a great idea, by the way, Uh, torch D. You're absolutely right. Steve Fessick nailed it on that one. He gave out six. But that one was the gem because what did you say? It was six and a six and a half? Yeah, two and a half was the look ahead again. Uh, Kevin Ryan Gil Caleb Williams is not even the second best rookie quarterback. It looks to me like Bo Nix is significantly better. I think you can start asking he might be right, man, where does he fall overall?
I mean, if you want to sit here and argue with me that Drake May's better right now, I don't know that I could how hard.
I could push back. Roger Jones tweeted this, you ready, Caleb Williams. Caleb Williams, Caleb Williams, Caleb Williams, everybody. Everybody just wants the Merrill Hodge sounder to go well special.
There's nothing special about him.
It's good do every time. Oh and Blue hen Bill wanted to chime in once more. He said he had a three time. He had a three team money line parlay yesterday Steelers yay, Cardinals yay. Just that last leg and Denver yay.
Oh mg wtfo Well had the same as a regular parlay and teaser.
So I made some money Glass half holl there you go, Rob, What are we making our shirts?
Man?
Always that last leg, just that last leg. Well remember that Chrissy Andrews. We spoke. Chrissy told the great story about one of his I think it was a cal Neva where some guy was like, ah, I just that he just cost me an eight teamer and they're like, show me your ticket he's was the first leg.
That's always going the classics.
I was just one leg away. Which leg was it? The first one? MotorCity Mike at window underscore cash. He says, we are over halfway to a Dan Campbell State holiday here in Michigan. He tells the team exactly what they have to do and how they're gonna do it, and it gets done. Also, when can I get some McCarthy next coach for the Jets? Ods already easy money the Dan campbellton. I just cannot say enough about the Detroit Lions. I remember the Detroit Lions fans gave me a bunch of guff last year because I barely had them in the top ten.
Well for a while I didn't have them, and then I got them. They were at a bottle of the top ten this year. Yeah, there's no guff to be given because I got them close to the top and they might be the top already this year, just this week, they might be the top.
Yeah, they're amazing. Did you catch that win last night? Was more impressive than anything I've ever seen from them. That was so awesome. Again, it was in the details, right, It was the fact that they threw five picks golf through five picks. They never looked panicky. They never abandoned the running game. Like how many teams in the NFL down that far would just be like, well we got to just hoisted downfield all game long. They just kept with it because they know they're the better team. Man, they know it, and they just they had an ultimate confidence that team. I don't know, like when we talk about Okay, so there's the Ravens and there's the Chiefs in the AFC, but when you just talk to NFC alone, they don't have a camp. There is not a team right now that the Lions are favored by more than a field goal over anybody in the NFC in the playoffs at home, agreed, Philly, Washington, San Francisco, Green Bay, none of them.
I thought you're gonna go on a neutral. I think it's probably it's three on a neutral.
Three on a neutral. They're they're they're that much better than everybody at this point. Yeah, I agree. Well, I mean I think there's still the teams that we've talked about that have a chance, like oh, on any given Sunday, sure, yeah.
Niners, Eagles, Packers, I think all three of those teams still got a shot.
For sure, They're not that overwhelmingly dominant, but man, they have they have looked great. They have looked absolutely great. Did you hear Michael Parsons after the game yesterday? No? Any chance? Oh no, do we have something?
We do have the sound this is about. Yeah, just like you brought up McCarthy. This was pretty interesting with Michael Parsons talking about McCarthy. I don't know, Smaan, if you have that, you can play it.
I don't know if I'm doing my pay grade about if Mike is coaching again next year, well, you know, all coaching side coaching. You know, Mike can lead and or wherever he wants. But guys, I, you know, I kind of feel bad for this, Guys like Zack Martin, Guys who might be on their last year, on our way out, you know, because that's what I wanted to hold a trophy for, you know, you want to win games and do great things with those type of legends who put in more time and work. Though Michae McCarthy ever did, so, those are the kind of guys that I have so much sympathy.
And hurt for. What prompted that a question specifically about Mike McCarthy, because otherwise it just sounds like he's like, well, yeah, our coach is definitely not gonna be here now.
Yeah yeah, sort of like he didn't need to say that, Like he didn't need to keep saying that. I what a disaster, what absolute disaster.
We will and I were talking on his podcast, who is going to end up right now? If you had a market, which may exist at some point this week somewhere, who's going to have the fewest losses? I don't know if they do adjusted fewest losses, and maybe they do. Maybe somebody, some books keeps putting them up fewest losses in the NFL this year. And he asked me that, and I started thinking about and I'm like, okay, well, nobody has fewer than two losses. Excuse me, fust wins? Pardon me? Who's gonna have the fewest wins? Nobody has fewer than two wins? The Bears have four. Their team turmoil. I don't know if they win another football game.
I mean this is on the heels of the Panthers and Patriots winning.
Yes, yes, the Bears might be a sneak, Like if this market is up, the Bears might be a sneaky plane it and the cow Yeah, Cowboys look so dysfunctional. God, by the way, that fourth round pick for Mingo said it all last week two. They are just run by a buffoon, like what are you doing everything?
The only thing that makes sense there is that they loved him during the draft.
They think he can be good long term. Still doesn't make any sense because the market doesn't bear a fourth round pick. Even if you thought that, right, yeah, and it's like, let's let's negotiate against ourselves. Why couldn't be a fourth Why couldn't you wait till the offseason if you were really thinking for the future. I don't really know. Let's squeeze in one hair anyway. I just think the Bears and the Cowboys might be sneaky interesting plays of that market. Oh totally yeah, yeah, oh yeah for number one pick in the draft. I guess is how it could be worded as well. Yeah, I haven't seen that up. I mean either, I'm trying to think fewest wins. I don't even think i've seen up in a because everybody's gonna immediately think Carolina, Yeah, you know, pick your worst team, Jaguars, whatever. But Actually, there's like Dallas Chicago level is an interesting play that mark. I'm with the other Cowboys are there with three wins. I got three wins. It's not like they're way above these guys.
One four oh five Eastern Seahawks at Niners.
Seahawks week off, they're four and five Niners. Niners get by. They beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers party to pearsall to opening to open the festivities. His first touchdown forty six yards out touchdown Ricky Piersoll seven to nothing. What a year, both on and off the field he's had. After getting shot in a Union square? Was he shot or stabbed? He was shot right? He shot shot in Union Square in San Francisco.
Ten to three later, Moody then misses a forty nine yard field goal try. This is the the young Hayku version here in San Francisco. Now Moody he misses a forty nine yard field goal try. It is ten to three at the half Tampa.
Bay, and then a three and out to start the half, but Jacob to start the second hand but Jacob Cowing muffs Trenton Gills punt when a teammates ridden into him. Tampa Bay set up at the San Francisco twenty one. Four plays later, Mayfield to Rashad White from nine out. It is ten to ten with eleven to fifty eight left, then thirteen to ten San Francisco Tampa Bay seventy yard drive Bucky Irving in from twelve and the Bucks lead it seventeen to thirteen early fourth quarter. Then Moody misses a fifty yard field goal wide left. San Francisco, though, gets it back sixty three yard drive, beautiful thirty yard hookup from Perdy to McCaffrey along the way, perfectly lofted by Perdy. Then two plays lady later, Perty, instead of throwing the ball away, extends a play extra effort towards the sideline. He induces an unnecessary roughness call. Two plays later, Perdy to Kittle extends the play, beautiful pass into the corner of the end zone, touchdown, twenty to seventeen. San Francisco was seven oh two left. Party was awesome, and that'll get lost in this still twenty to seventeen. Moody misses his third field we'll try forty seven yards is third miss of the day. Tampa Bay takes over at their own thirty four with three h nine left, Baker fourth and seven at their own thirty seven with one to fifty seven. Ag stiff arms Bosa keeps it alive to Rashot White for eight. Amazing play. Kevin Burkhard lost his mind. I'm still confused with what we saw. Three Niners penalties later holding a face massive legal use of hands in the face leads to first and goalt the eight. They get to the five, but the Niners hole mcglalughlin twenty six yard field goal ties it twenty to twenty with forty one seconds left, and then San Francisco from their own thirty five with just forty one left. Pretty surgical to Jennings for six, to Piersoll for six, to Pier Sulf for fourteen, to Jennings for thirteen. Spike Moody forty four yard field goal sneaks in ballgame. Niners win at twenty three to twenty. Niners by six at home against the Seahawks.
It is six and a half. Okay, sure we have a few more games to get too. Coming up Numbers Game the Sports Betting Network.
Numbers Game on VIISID Sports Betting Network.
Looking for some action. Our friends at first bet at he covered sign up to data unlock exclusive promotions, was watching wager on hundreds of exciting horse races every day from across the country and around the world. It's sign up at first bet dot com. That's the number one st bet dot Com used promo code vs in two hundred to claim a twenty percent rebate for your first sixty days up to two hundred dollars. Head to first bet dot Com today. Skill Alexander Skelly Bindlin guessing lines for a week eleven of the National Football League. This has not been one of those weeks where they've they've exploded off the page. Let's put it that way. Whereas remember there are some weeks earlier we're like, oh my god, I like way too many of these. Yeah, that doesn't exist this week. We do have a few more games to get to. I just want to make a point because we were talking about the NBA injuries yesterday. I went to bet. I haven't I haven't had a bad Vegas betting story in a while. Here we go here, but scrap in, ladies and gentlemen, strap it in. So if you remember, and this is not going to be as bad as Caesar's. Caesar's you're the worst. Let me just tell you that you're still the worst because when I went to bed read, when I went to bet Reed Shepherd for the number one pick in the NBA Draft, I will never forget what Caesars did. We talked about it on this show. It was fifty to one. They spun it in front of me after I made the bet, and they said, O, it's twenty five to one. Now sorry, complete liars, complete unethical they that should be illegal. And they're too big to give a damn right because they can lie to you and say, oh, yeah, I just got bet on the other side of town just at that very same moment. Oh too bad for you anyway. And by the way, a bet that's likely to lose and did lose, Yes, so that's still the pinnacle. Nobody's that bad. So let's put this in context. But my buddy's over there at MGM yesterday, right, So I'm betting and MGM has been a sponsor of this program and hopefully it'll be a sponsor again. But here's what happened is, by the way, the greatest people ever are my guys at the ARIA, MJ and Greg all those guys ld Irma, Nora Love everybody. I could go on. Anyway, here's the point. Yesterday I went to bet Steph Curry MVP in the NBA, and at that time he was only only in quotes fifty to one. We know some people who had one hundred to one. Yeah, okay, one hundred and fifty Oh are you kidding me? Okay, yeah, will.
Text me about this yesterday and they found one hundred and fifty a draft kings.
One hundred and fifty one draft kings. We don't have draft kings here in Nevada, Okay. Sadly the best in town was fifty to one on Steph Curry. And by the way, it's a great narrative if the Warriors are going to be great again and Steph Kirk, could you imagine like that vote like, oh yeah, we're giving it to Steph. Who's what thirty six now? If I'm not mistaken thirty six years old? Anyway, So I go to bet at at fifty to one, getting to the point, and I just want to bet a dime, right, It's the same thing at Led Caesars with the Reed Shepherd thing. It's a dime. I'm not betting ten dimes. I should want to bet a dime, okay. And now every time this used to play. Vegas used to be a place, Nevada used to be a place two.
Years ago where you could go to MGM and Caesar and you could just expect, oh, they'll take a bet a dime.
Spin spin, spin, spin, spinity, spins bin. This is you at the counter. Hold on, there's more. Yeah, me at the counter, spin it a spin and there it's anxiety every time, now right, And they're like, they'll they'll take a nickel. Okay, you'll take a nickel. Fine, here's a nickel, No problem. Nickel Steph Curry fifty to one. Not as sexy, but all right, no problem. Okay, can you tell me what you moved it to so I can see if I want to bet the other nickel? And you know what they say to me. They go, yeah, we didn't move it. I said, oh, so it's still fifty to one. They're like yeah, I said, okay, Can I now bet my other nickel at fifty to one. They're not going to take it. I was like, can you try they submit it? They're like no, why because it's the same person. I go, so wait a minute, let me get this. Let me get this straight. If another person walks right behind me and wants to bet a nickel at fifty to one, you'll give it to them. But because I just bet a nickel at fifty to one, you're not giving me the other nickel. They're like, yeah, I go, I'm not trying to create trouble here, but how does that make any sense? Yeah, they're like, we don't know. Well, okay, so people at the counter are just the middleman. They're like, we don't know.
So I think the most aggravating part of that story is just how inconsistent everybody is, because then what are you doing?
I think when I've heard stories in the past of.
Like big, big bets getting limited right, like I never understood I never understood the okay, well it's not that big of a bet.
No, I don't.
Yeah, but like I've never understood why they do the like Okay, we're going to limit you to this much and then they just let them come back.
And bet again on the app. If I had tried betting it, you know what would have happened, because that's his experiences have happened already gone to the other ones. No, it would have given me. The first time I tried it would have said here, you can have three hundred and thirty three dollars. Oh yeah. And then the second time I would have said you can have two hundred and four dollars, and the third time I would have said you could have fifty dollars. And I literally would have had to come back seven or eight times to get in my full dime. But you know what, I would have gotten in the full dime and they wouldn't have moved it for me. But it's also that at least algorithmically is stupid, right, But at least it's an algorithm, and it's not humans actually you know, looking at it every second unless you call them to look at it. This is actual humans. Crack talks about it all the time. It's people up a top right who are not who have not been in the business long enough to be making these kinds of risk decisions, who are just like, yeah, you just I just can't give you more. Why you're going to give the next person more? What's the difference. It's just it just it doesn't make any in.
That straight It doesn't make sense, and it's for me it's a bunch of inconsistencies that they always do it always. It always cracks me uphen we talk specifically about these bets though, because it goes back to what you said before. It goes back to what aligne Vida used all the time that I laugh at still this day. I will I will book any one hundred and one action that you want, you know what I mean, Like it's fifty to one man, it.
Is likely to lose. I don't have any inside information on Steph Curry that you don't already have.
I mean, Gil, I can guarantee you he's going to try to play better than he has already to the Warriors being a good team out West.
By the way, it's just it's just incredible anyway that I always joke, you know when Nevada gets sports betting, Oh boy, it has only gone down. It has only gotten down.
And by the way, I love these people too, but the people who also care about it, they're getting trumped by decisions above them, and it's just it's just a shame.
Yeah, it's bad. It's a shame.
Twenty two points per game, over six assists, over four rebounds for Steph. Yes, he is behind last year's pace, but uh yeah, Will text me this yesterday. I'm like, I don't even have to look at his stats like this. It's a good bet at one hundred and one. Are you kid even it's a good bet fifty to one. It's a good bet.
Will got one hundred and fifty to one. Yeah. Wow?
Good The Warriors are playing if they if they happen to be in this mixed down down the stretch, Steph.
Curry's name alone is gonna over. I will say it again, is very rare. It is very rare in sports. In fact, I can't think of something else off my head. I said this on Friday or Thursday when you were here a for a franchise to win a championship, then bottom out and quickly rise back up to win it again. The Warriors did that right when KD and Clay had the injuries. KD went away, they bottomed out after that, and then they rose the phoenix rising from the ashes again. They want a championship. Is so rare in sports. If they were to flirt even with doing that again, it is unprecedented. Off the charts, we're early, but anyway down to fifty to one at DraftKings. How about how about we're already it's only November eleventh. There's only seven names in front of Steph Curry at fifty one. All right, what's next for twenty five? Eastern Chiefs at Bills? A game of the week. That's the game of the week. By the way, those are three great games. Yeah, Washington, Philly, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and KC at Buffalo. The nine to o Chiefs at the eight and two Bills Mahomes yesterday in victory twenty eight to forty two for two to sixty six, Kareem Hunt fourteen for thirty five on the ground, seven for sixty five in the passing game. The Chiefs have now won nine straight games where they were trailing by at least seven points, and NFL record that breaks the mark held by the two thousand and eight two thousand and nine Colts. And the Chiefs also won the last seven games where they trailed at halftime, which ties an NFL record that's held by the eighty nine ninety nine Ers who won a Super Bowl the Why the way, what's that? What team did you say the eighty nine to ninety nine Ers? Oh? I think they mean the eighty nine nine. It was like the ninety nine ers, the eighty nine ninety nine ers.
I got confused.
Buffalo in victory Josh Allen twenty two of thirty seven for two to eighty. They had four hundred and fifteen total yards against the Colts. I will say Buffalo minus one and a half. Split the difference between the three and the pick them.
As you can imagine, these openers were in around that range. We were at two and a half pretty much everywhere.
Bill's taking money. I bet him on the money line. You bet the bills Bill's money line.
It was like minus one eighteen.
But I bet.
I bet at a shop.
I was hanging one or one and a half yesterday. All right, what's next? Next?
Up?
Sunday Night football Bengals at Chargers. Bengals on the extra rest on the Thursday night loss to the Ravens. We went through that very detailed to remember. That was the game. Jamar Chase had eleven catches for two sixty four and three touchdowns. Herbert yesterday for the Chargers and victory against the Titans fourteen of eighteen only attempt at eighteen passes fourteen of eighteen for one sixty four. Do the Chargers still have not given up twenty points in a single game this year? Jeez oh about that Chargers by I said, here's the thing with the Chargers, and I've said this all the time. I rate them lower than the betting market seems to. So I will say that knowing that the Chargers, the six and three Chargers, will be two and a half point favorites here against the Bengals one to two. Right now, this has opened some shops two and a half though. Okay, so Bengals Bengals take a little money here tween yesterday and today. Did we do the last one here?
Sure?
Monday Night? Monday Night Football, Texas A Cowboys, Texans at Cowboys, The Battle of Texas six and four Texans, the three and six Cowboys Stroud nineteen of thirty three for two thirty two in the loss to the Lions last night. He was sacked four times again and the Texans were plus three and turnovers, but they were held to two hundred and forty eight total yards by the Lions. And then the Cowboys and that loss of the Eagles we talked about. Cooper Rush thirteen of twenty three for forty five forty five. Kelly fumbled twice, one hundred and forty six total yards, eleven first downs, and five turnovers. The Cowboys have now trailed by at least twenty points in five straight home games, an NFL record. Can we make it six in a row against the Texans? I will say Houston by five and a half, No man's leg.
Oh you are light seven? There is a seven and a half on the board at circle.
Oh, I am light, and Dak gonna have the season ending surgery done for the year. It's the Cooper Rush Tray Lance Show. Everybody