Beating The Book: 2024 NFL Week 10 Guessing Lines Show

Published Nov 4, 2024, 6:10 PM

Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon give their thoughts on every game on the Week 10 NFL slate on Monday's Beating The Book. What are their initial thoughts for the Week 10 slate of games? Also, some impressions on Week 9.

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Man Numbers told the story. Now those idiots will believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander.

Gone fis in good Monday morning tu It is a numbers game at VS and D Sports Betting Nowork visa dot com game plus, iHeartRadio YouTube TV.

Where are you taking this in?

We appreciate it. It is Gil Alexander, it is Kelly Bidlin. We're gonna guest some lines for week number ten. How are you, sir?

Doing well?

Man?

Good to have you back.

Thanks for having me back. I appreciate I hope everybody appreciates. How awesome Matt is. Thank you to Matt for filling in last week. Also thanks to Todd Wishedev and Will Hill for doing the.

Megapod last week with Wes.

Can't thank everybody enough. We will, if you will allow me later on towards the end of the show, if I could say a few words about my mom. I know that no one tuned in for that necessarily, but at the end of the show, I would like to pay her tribute. Until then, and by the way, thank you to everybody who tweeted such kind, thoughtful notes to me. I really appreciate that, and I will try to get back to each and every one of you. I know I haven't yet. I wasn't exactly living on Twitter, but we'll do that later. We want to guest some lines in the meantime and do our normal routine on a Monday. Man, how you doing.

I'm doing well, man, that's right, that's all right. Another ex man, we're through nine weeks already, Like, that's crazy, nine weeks.

Well.

Will does that on the megapot after like week four, He's like, I can't believe we're a week five.

It sneaks up. Yeah, middle of the season, all right, it's fire it.

Up, guess and lines. Here we go guessing lines. We don't no, there we go. I'm usually at one to forgets the other. We'll tell hey, can I do a Survivor of Day perbs? Oh, we're allowed to do that. We had one hundred and ninety one remaining entries headed into Week ten of Circus Survivor. Week nine, pardon me, of Circus Survivor, forty bounced just over twenty percent all on the New Orleans Saints. That's not good.

Saints.

Who just if you look at the box score of this game and you have the Saints, you just have to raise your arms, raise your hands and just be like, what can I do? What can I possibly do? So forty are gone, forty entries, which means one hundred and fifty one remain heading into Week ten of the National Football League. Implied value the value of each remaining entry Kelly currently is poo poo, poo, poo poop. Ninety four thousand dollars.

That's cool.

Ninety four four hundred and seventy six dollars and eighty two cents.

I could use something coal, that's cool. That's cool. Forty I guess I'm I'm kind of surprised to see it's so many, but I guess this was this was the time to use the same.

So yeah, Spryce young Panthers. And by the way, again, like if you had if you had just presented the box score without the final score to somebody'd be like, yeah, great pick.

Did you catch his? Bill Barnwell tweet.

Uh.

Saints out gained the Panthers by one hundred and fifty plus yards, ran for one hundred and fifty plus yards, had won the turnover battle. Over the last twenty years, teams have gone two hundred and seventy five and oh with that.

Formula, Yeah, to seventy five and one.

Now to seventy five and one. And did I just hear that? Correct? Brendon, Dennis Allen just got fired. That just happened. That just happened.

Dennis Allen second to be fired, not first. He was the he was the short shot going into the season if you recall as the first to be fired. But he becomes the second. And that was a long time coming. The Saints who won correct, correct me if I'm wrong. They won the first two games of the season and they lost the last seven is actually yes, wow, this is because.

It was Panthers and Cowboys, right. They looked like just an offensive Juggernauts.

Juggernaut Rumbers scored ninety one points. I want to say the first two weeks, which was, you know, among the top ever in the first two weeks of any NFL season. And then Derek Carr did get hurt and that kind of changed the calculus of everything. But yeah, there you go. Dennis Allen fired by the New Orleans Saints. All right, shall we start guessing some lines?

Yeah, test get going week ten, Thursday night, good primetime game here.

Bengals at the Ravens. Bengals at the Ravens on Thursday. That is a good game. Bengals beat the Raiders. By the way. Speaking of firings, the Raiders did not fire their head coach, but they certainly fired a bevy of coordinators. By the way, Oh, this just in building news. Antonio Pierce moved out.

Oh well, he probably got it. Probably got a nice new house somewhere.

I don't know. His impala apparently was hanging out there for like a month after Excuse me.

Is it, Paula, he got a pala.

Yeah, let's go on to now give me that.

That's gone to it.

But maybe he felt me coming to ask him questions. I gotta get out of here.

Cincinnati beats the Raiders.

So there's not a whole bunch to say about this game other than the Raiders as they do. The first drive of the game, they scored, which is the fourth time in five games that they score touchdown on their opening drive. Zamir wide in from one to seven to nothing Raiders later when it was ten to ten late second quarter, and this is really the whole game right here. Yesterday was strange of the NFL because you had a lot of double dip situations, You had a lot of kickers that are usually reliable missing kicks, and you had a lot of really weird late first down situations where there seemingly wasn't enough time on the clock for a team to do what they did. It happened multiple times in the league yesterday. But ten to ten late second quarter, Cincinnati getting the ball with two fifty eight left, seventy yard drive. Borrow to I always mess this up on the show, Yoshavish, Yoshavas, there you go. Thank you. I always having good on sing read it you can't read it, Yoshavas. From ten out seventeen to ten Cincinnati and then they do get the double dip because then they come back third quarter, seventy yard drive borrow to Drew sample from two. It's twenty four to ten Cincinnati. And it was kind of Katie bar of the door then because third and three at the Cincinnati forty five for the Raiders trailing by fourteen fumbled snap Logan Wilson recovers. The Raiders lead the NFL in turnovers with nineteen from minus fourteen turnover disadvantage. This year, Cincinnati took over the Vegas twenty one berg and a Kasiki from eleven touchdown. It was over halfway through the third quarter of the competitive portion of the ball game, thirty one to ten. There would later be another big Asiki touchdown after a Raiders pick six. Final score forty one twenty four Bengals. They roll over the Raiders who are just going nowhere fast. We'll get to their game later. And then there's Baltimore. Baltimore who took on Denver yesterday, and this was one of these games where and a couple of these games followed this pattern yesterday where it was kind of nip and tuck early until the better team just sort of roll later. The story with the Broncos was they failed on a bunch of fourth downs. By design, they were going to go for a lot of four downs yesterday, so they were prepared for that failure and they did. They failed on fourth in inches at the Baltimore forty four after a review early in the game in a scoreless game. That led to a fifty six yard touchdown drive for Baltimore Henry in from seven to make it seven to nothing late first quarter. Then Denver had a fourth and fourth at the Baltimore thirty three to start the second quarter, and Nick's overthrew Troy Franklin in the end zone. Baltimore's up ten to nothing. When Denver finally did get a fourth down conversion fourth and goal at the Baltimore two, Nicks on a Philly special catching the pass from Courtland Sutton, ten to seven. That was as close as Denver got because then Baltimore on a sixty three yard drive Lamarta Ze from seven outs seventeen to seven. At seventeen to ten. It was a three play drive, and this is what I was talking about earlier. Fifty four seconds left in the second quarter, Kelly seventeen to ten, Baltimore Baltimore gets the ball, three plays they go, you know, they go the length of the field. Lamar at is ay from fifty three breaking tackles, touchdown twenty four to ten. Lamar is eleven for twelve for two oh eight at the half, and then to start the third quarter Baltimore seventy yard drive thirty one to ten. Henry and from six. So it goes from this relatively close ballgame to this again that double dip opportunity which you shouldn't have if you only get the ball with less than a minute left, but just poor defense on the Broncos part, which is supposedly their calling card. Final score of that one forty one to ten, as Denver would have two more goal to go situations which would yield a nada. So this is a good Thursday night game, Cincinnati at Baltimore. I will say Baltimore minus six.

Yeah, right now, we are right around that number. It is six six and a halves out there right now, all right?

That makes sense, Yeah.

That makes sense. I think you're right though. Way both of those, especially that Ravens. I had the Ravens tied into a couple teasers and like just take away the final score whatever it says, just felt like that was a perfect example of where those two teams are at because it was very much Denver was very much in it in the first half. Like that is a misleading kind of final score of what it felt like. But Baltimore is always going to keep the pressure on you offensively and defensively, and like you said there, like they had to go for it on a couple fourth downs that they knew they had had to start going for it to keep themselves in the game, and then it just gets away from you and Baltimore offense just can't be stopped.

Here's a question we were throwing around yesterday, and I bring this up not because I'm choosing the Broncos as the answer to this question, but let's just here, we are relatively speaking halfway. Obviously with seventeen games at eighteen weeks. Nothing is exactly halfway anymore in the NFL. But if you look at the AFC playoff standings right now, or just the standings and try to figure out who the playoff teams are going to be, right Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Q, Houston, Kansas City are five of them? Do I just name five Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City. Those are all teams with six wins or more. There's two more teams that will make the playoffs. Do you give the Chargers in your mind? Do you have the Chargers as one of those teams or not completely?

And who are the other two teams? What I's I don't think. I think the Chargers. I have no read on that team whatsoever.

I don't know.

I haven't since the beginning of the season. I bet against him again yesterday that didn't work out. I have no idea what this team is.

And I'm given, by the way, I'm giving it to Pittsburgh because they banked enough wins six and two. They've got a gauntlet coming. I'm not quite the gauntlet we thought it was going to be, right with the Cleveland's and with the Cleveland's of the world in there a couple of times. But let's just say they're one of the five. Who are the other two? And here here are your options? Right, the Jets, whose schedule is really easy, but they're three and six.

Yep.

The Bengals, the aforementioned Bengals, who are four and five.

That would be one for me. The Colts who are four and.

Five, but Flacco looked awful last night. And then besides the Chargers, the Broncos are the other candidate right at five and four.

Who are the other two I'll say Bengals and then Chargers of Broncos.

One of those two, I think the Broncos are a possibility.

They're just they're banked the wins, right we're just look at that right now, and we're heading into week ten. Just for to say that both those teams have five wins, that's a big deal.

I mean, I have to say bo Nix is a lot better than I thought he was gonna.

Yeah, oh I thought I thought first half yesterday, he made some throws, made some plays in that game I thought were damn impressive.

I just think that's interesting. But the bottom end of the AFC, because we went into the season, the AFC is so powerful, I mean, how many teams are vying for it and it does kind of taper off after five, I mean it does.

I think it's even it's even more top heavy than that, right, Like, would you I would be shocked, even if we'll just past week nine, to be shocked if it wasn't Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City.

Coming out.

All right, we'll come to the Sunday games wee ten of the National Football League guessing lines again. If you're just tuning in the object of the exercise to try to isolate value in the upcoming week's NFL games, we will continue on the other side. It's a numbers game at Visa These Sports Betting.

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Network Special Numbers game investigation reveals that college basketball season begins today, Doctor Bob blowing up the phones already college basketball with our betting guide that is out now. It's our annual betting guide. Humans is great on this, so is Greg, so is Wes. This year's guide includes Matt Human's top fifty rankings, all thirty two conferences previewed Woulden Award candidates future since season long prop bets moos betting nuggets on every major conference team from Greg Hoops Peterson Hoops. Starts your Visa person description today for as little as nine ninety nine. Get INSIDT access to the guide, plus daily best bets, twenty four to seven video, and our exclusive betting splits. Give yourself an edge of this season. Sign up today at vson dot com slash subscribe. That's vsi n dot com slash subscribe. You ready for college basketball? Let's go, Cooper Flag. Kelly just gave you his entire knowledge of college basketball.

That's all you got, Cooper Flag.

Let's go college basketball today. So anything going on nationally tomorrow that I should know?

Yeah, just a few things, Yeah, just a few things. I think I saw Matt humans with his top forty power eight teams up for the in the country this morning. So he just tweeted that out or oh, okay, check it out.

Where's he got Bama?

No? No, I didn't atually pull up the list.

Okay, this is awesome. Let me read this.

No, I had a good time. I was rushing shows guy.

All right, let's go to Sunday.

Sunday we are in Munich, Germany for this one. I believe giants at Panthers, Giant giants first panthers.

Panthers enjoy the Giants and Panthers Europe.

Yeah, have full of that.

Have fun Munich them to Giants lose to the Skins twenty seven to twenty two. They do not cover the number though they had their chances zero zero game Giants first and ten at the Washington twenty nine. Daniel Jones, sacked by Dante Fowler, fumbles, Bobby Wagner recovers all the way back of the Giants thirty one. That leads the Skins first touchdown. Daniels to the incomparable Terry McLaurin from one out, seven to nothing, commodore, want to catch. Seventy three yard drive comes back. The Giants are like, hey, we can do this too, seventy three yard drive. Jones to Chris Manherts from two out. It is seven to seven? Do we have a ballgame here? Early second quarter? That was, by the way, Daniel Jones first met life touchdown in six hundred and eighty two days, which Scott Hansen said maybe seventeen times.

On rid zone. Guess that's great.

It's like as if that was something we were all tracking.

Right, wait, wait, wait, wait, a passing touchdown.

I didn't care enough to investigate. I think it's either him scoring or a touchdown pass. Yes, of course he was hurt for much of that, so it's a kind of a nonsense stat, right, but he kept saying it. Okay, seven to seven Skins seventy yard drive including a Daniels six yard run on fourth and one at the Giants twelve, the Commode's tenth straight fourth down conversion, two plays that they that they tried to convert of course without you know, punting or kicking. Two plays later, Eckler in from one to fourteen to seven, Washington was six twenty one left, and then after a Giants three and out, Washington takes over with five nineteen left in the half. They're up a touchdown eighty seven yard drive. And this is what I was talking about earlier, Kelly, where it's like teams scored late in the first half in ways that they should not have all through the league. Yesterday, Skins had third and eighteen at the Giants forty two with twenty seconds left in the half, Daniels to Diami Brown for twenty four, and then with no timeouts left, with ten seconds left at the eighteen yard line, Daniels to the incomparable Terry McLaurin from eighteen twenty one to seven. Skins we go to the half, and that's kind of your game right there, right like that should never happen, and Commodores just kind of coasted the rest of the way. The Giants got it to it was twenty four to ten. They traded field goals. Giants got twenty four to sixteen. They got an eighty yard drive Jones in from two down eight. They did the whole let's get it from eight to six thing, which is what analytics tell you to do.

They fail.

Of course, the anti analytics community goes crazy about that because it failed, and they like to talk about the result when it fails, but if it succeeds, you don't hear a peepe from them. I just want to point that out. Twenty four to sixteen, Washington, nine to twenty five left in the fourth quarter. They matriculate Cyber twenty yardfield goal to make it a twenty seven to sixteen game. Then the Giants do come back really quick, seventy four yards. Jones the theo Johnson for thirty five. So they're down five. They try to cut it to three, which of course is what you try to do. They fail again, and you hear everybody just moaning about it that they went for two, because everybody thinks their point is to cover the spread between you and me. It's not. They're trying to win. Twenty seven to twenty two and then you know, in past years, Washington would gack a game like this, right, but I don't know if you know this. Kelly Jaden Daniels is their starting quarterback, and this kid is unbelievable. It's unbelievable to Olamide's a chaus for forty two at a face mask. Then Chris Rodriguez Junior just battering Ram to seal the deal victory formation twenty seven to twenty two. Washington Daniels becomes the first rookie to sweep the Giants in the Super Bowl era.

How about that?

Wow? Okay, we'll get to Washington, but that's the Giants fate we're talking about here. And then there's Carolina. We alluded to this earlier. By the way, if we missed a Dennis Allen relieved of his duties, which is a kind way of saying he was fired by the New Orleans Saints this morning as we came on air, Carolina nine plays eighty six yards to start the game. Bryce the Jachevian Sanders for forty six and twenty one. Hubbard in from one, oh, this is in the third quarter. I'm sorry, I didn't want to talk about the first EEP thirteen to ten. New Orleans is where I will pick up. In the second half, Carolina nine play, eighty six yard drive. That was Bryce Jatavian Sanders for forty six and twenty one on the drive Hubbard in from one seventeen thirteen Carolina. It got to seventeen sixteen and New Orleans then took the lead. Eleven play seventy yards car to Foster Moreau from seventeen out. Great catch in the end zone. Two point try fails. They're up five, they're going for two. Sometimes you have to go for two. Twenty two to seventeen. That's with eleven fifty five left in the fourth quarter. Then Carolina, this was one of the great plays of the day. Second and twelve at their own forty eight. Bryce was picked and I want to do that in quotes. He was intercepted by schamar Jean Charles, which was essentially him stripping the ball from the receiver, which Bryce Young.

Hit right in the numbers.

Yeah, so, but Bryce Young, he gets tagged with the pick there.

You feel like we've seen that about eight times this year.

Not like that out the.

Fumble or the interception. They're just like ripped it out of his hands.

So Carolina is down five. They take over at their own thirty six with three twenty six left. They need a touchdown. They get it young to the Xavier to get from twenty six on third and ten from their own thirty six. Then a pi, then Hubbard in from sixteen two point try fails as they try to go up three, So it's twenty three to twenty two Carolina to eighteen to go. No problem, right, New Orleans and the forty survivors entries, you got this. You're only down a point to Carolina. They get to their own forty, and this is the sequence. Derek Carr, I think is a nice guy. I think he's a competent quarterback. But what I would say about him is that in crunch time, the decision making is always the bad thing. It's always the bugaboo. He always seems to make the wrong one. They get to their own forty, he takes a sack. Then they get it back to fourth and fourth their own forty six. He goes deep on a fade to Cedric Wilson Junior, which is just a low percentage pass, and of course it was incomplete. They've got no timeouts left. Ballgame Carolina wins twenty three to twenty two. The Panthers, as Kelly mentioned earlier, out gained four twenty seven to two forty six, one ninety seven to eighty on the ground. Repeat that stat from earlier, the Bill Barnwell stat Yeah, we pull it up when you when you out gain an opponent by one fifty.

Outgained by one hundred and fifty plus yards, ran for one hundred and fifty plus and won the turnover battle. Over the last twenty years, teams had gone two hundred and seventy five and.

Zero, two seventy five and one. Now there it is from Bill Barnwell. Amazing. I say this is in Munich. I'll say Giants minus four, giants minus five right now, Okay.

Four and a half five. That's where we're at.

Sures game. Sure, just check.

I think they opened No.

No.

Four and a half five. That's right right right near the opener.

So squeeze another one.

All right, let's go Sunday early window Patriots at Bears.

Patriots lose to Tennessee. This was kind of a Dullsville game until the end when it was awesome. Ten to ten game, New England second and thirteen at their own thirty two. May sacked by arden Key fumbles. Jeffrey Simmons recovers Tennessee set up at the New England twenty six with six fifty three left. They get it to third and goal the six Rootolph to Nick Westbrook at Keene touchdown seventeen to Dan Diiten's four to twenty seven left. Later, New England gets the ball out at midfield with one forty five left. They're down seven. They need a touchdown to tie. They get it to fourth and two at the Tennessee fifteen with twenty one seconds to go to Henry for ten. That's the five yard line. They spike it eight seconds to go incomplete to Kaysehan Buttey in the end zone four seconds left, and then Drake May with the play of maybe one of the plays of the day because it's hard to beat that Sagua play. But May keeps the play alive for maybe ten seconds that it was wild desperation prayer as he's getting hit Remandre on the other end, touchdown, touch down. Jrodmeo decides not to go for two. Did you agree with this?

Yeah?

I mean I probably would have gone for it, but this is the go to overtime for trying to win it.

Slye barely gets the extra point in seventeen to seventeen. They go to overtime. Tennessee wins the toss. They matriculate eight o'clock. They would get to the first and tenth of New England fifteen, but third and two at the seven Rootolf would fumble the exchange. They settled for a Folk twenty five a Nick Folk twenty five yard field goal with two thirty two left in overtime, and then three plays into the Patriots drive, Amani Hooker picks off a Drake made deep ball. At Tennessee wins the game, and in Chicago it was the same thing. Well, just they lose to Arizona big, But the whole thing came down to that sequence. When we're talking about the end of the first half, they're down fourteen to nine. Arizona's at their own thirty. Kyler Touamari Demarcado for twelve to McBride for five. Two plays later with twelve seconds left to Marcado for fifty three yards of the house, and it's twenty one to nine. You can't let that happen. That's the game. So instead of a Chicago double dip, that's the game. Arizona ends up crushing them twenty nine to nine. I will say the Bears by five and a half hosting New.

England Air is six and a half point favorites right now seems slightly high? Yeah, yeah, slightly there are sevens now? Really all right? They're not that good? Well, come back looking for value.

Numbers, gave on V said the Sports Vetting Network.

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Kelly, we gotta find out where we're voting. Get out vote, get killing. I can't figure out where we're going, but get out to vote.

That's right, we can't. We don't know where we're voting with again, we're going somewhere though. It's a country of three hundred and fifty million people. People have died for the right to vote. Please go out and vote. I don't care who you vote for. Just vote. Kind of care, but let's not.

Get into it. Kind of cares, all right, Let's continue.

What are we all right?

Sunday early window. Bill's at Colts, Bill's at Colts.

How about the Buffalo Billiards getting by the Miami Dolphins thirty to twenty seven in a game that got kind of kind of like a track meet at the end first quarter scores three to three. Buffalo first intended to Miami eleven, Allen intended for Keon Coleman. It bounces right off of him to Ramsey for a pick, and then Miami went fourteen plays ninety seven yards. On the ensuing drive Toua to Devan a chain from fourteen out ten to three Dolphins. This be an upset Buffalo after allan would be touchdown run was nullified. By a very questionable holding call. They settle for a Bass forty nine yard field will ten to six.

We go to the half.

Third quarter, Miami first and ten, the Buffalo forty eight moster hit by Aaron Johnson fumbles.

Were covered by Cahir Elim.

Buffalo eleven play sixty four yards Allen and Mac Collins from one out on fourth and goal touchdown. Bass misses the extra point, so it's twelve to ten Buffalo halfway through the third quarter. Now it's thirteen to twelve Miama. Late third quarter, Buffalo second play of the drive, Allen to Ray Davis for sixty three two point try succeeds, so it's twenty to thirteen Buffalo two oh seven left in the third quarter. And then they're just trading touchdowns in this game. Miami seventy yard drive eight chain In from eight twenty to twenty twelve fourteen left, Buffalo seventy yard drive Alan to Quintin Morris from two twenty seven to twenty was six eighteen left, and then Miami eleven plays eighty one yards beautiful third and seven conversion from two to Wattle four plays later to Waddle for a seven touchdown it is tied to twenty seven with one thirty eight left, then helped by a PI on former Bill Jordan Boyer on Keon Coleman Bass who missed an earlier pat as we mentioned, and skimmed another one in off the upright from sixty one. Good Buffalo wins at thirty to twenty seven. One of the worst pitchy bitch wooos you'll ever see after that. By the way, did you see that thing going around on Twitter yesterday where everybody was thrown around this thing that Tua if you had the Tua prop that you lost on that pitchy pitchy woo wo that is correct. Okay, everyone's throwing this around and they're like, oh they lost because Waddle went back a million yards. Tua only gets the yardage for the pass after the lateral that doesn't come off twas passing yards, so he didn't get the prop but it wasn't because of that play.

Yeah, And then I forget how that works for the other guys, right, aren't they are they all counted as like individual like rushing yards but not carries, right, Like there's weird statistical stuff, but the trip, but the.

Tweet that was going on was about twas passing. That was not the case that that's not docrim It goes as a one yard loss for Tua on the play on the past the uh that keon Coleman. Uh play that was like I bounce off.

I feel like that is like the one they showed like middle school like football practices where it's like, hey, quarterback, like put it on the front shoulder of the guy taking like a three foot slant pattern and like Josh Allen puts it perfect. It just hands the shoulder pad. It goes right into Ramsey's hands.

Where they played who was Buffalo play Indianapolis? Indianapolis last night? You see this game at all against Minnesota, yep.

At the end of it, yep.

Well, the first half the only score was you know, because it was they were trading like it was sort of like anything you can do, I can do better or worse. In this game, Colts fumbled on an exchange in Minnesota territory to start this game. Then Darnald immediately threw a pick in the end zone to Zaire Franklin. On the ensuing drive, Minnesota first and ten at their own forty seven, Donald sacked. This is in the second quarter, Donald sacked by Grover Stewart, fumbled, Kenny Moore recovered at thirty eight yards of the house, touchdown seven and nothing. Indianapolis ten fifty six left in the second quarter. The hand to the face uncalled mm hmm, Grover Stewart completely hitting Sam Darnold in the face mask. That was the only points of the first half because the rest of the half was Will Reiker missing a fifty three yard try, Matt Gay missing a fifty three yard try, and then Ryker joinking a thirty one yard try, so there was seven to zing Colts. Third quarter begins, Vikings immediately go nine plays seventy yards. Donald to Addison from four out, seven to seven. After Indianapolis punt, Minnesota nine plays eighty yards. Donald to Jalen Nayler from seven out, maybe fourteen to seven. Then Flacco when the Colts were matriculating down seven, picked by Byron Murphy Junior. Next play, Donald picked by Nick Cross. Nobody wanted this game. Fourteen to ten. Minnesota late fourth and two at the Minnesota forty Flacco incomplete. Then Minnesota seals the deal. Eight play sixty yards Donald to Josh Oliver from fourteen out twenty one to ten. The Colts would get a field goal. They did declare because they have to declare their own side kick. It did not succeed, twenty one to thirteen Vikings and what was pretty lame, pretty lame football game. By the way, the hardest game to watch of the entire week was that Thursday night game.

There were so many bad football games this way.

Oh my god, Buffalo minus four at Indianapolis? Am I low?

You are Nope, You're about right on four to four and a half? Mainly four and a half.

Flacco is an improvement over your guy Richardson though, right right.

He asks the question mark, Yeah, I think this is a don't even just judge one game, right, You gotta give you more time. Yeah, he doesn't.

That's the thing about Flacco though, right, Like as great as he is a lot of the times, then it'll have a game like this where like are you awake?

Yeah, I mean I think it is. It is the It was part of the conversation we were having last week about like, okay, make the quarterback change like this, right, it's got to be you are selling the team, the fans, everybody on the short term success and you're gonna have a Flaco. But everybody seems to forget sometimes, like these guys, you know, Lacko, Jameis Winston, whoever else you want to include, like not Hall of Fame quarterbacks like they're you know, they're uh actually flack what might end up beating the whole of flame I guess right, maybe back to that discussion one day.

Yeah, I mean they won a Super Bowl with him on a rookie deal. Then he was Comeback Player of the Year. I don't know that that's Hall of Fame.

But that's my point, right. It's it's like we all think this he's gonna, okay, we put it Joe Flacco. Now he's gonna be amazing, and it's like, I don't know, he's had some bad games over his years.

Let's squeezed a couple more.

When you got all right, Broncos at Chiefs.

Bronco's the Chiefs Chiefs sight unseen Chief's big favorite tonight against the Buccaneers.

You have a play on tonight's game at all? I do not.

I do not either. I sight unseen on this By the way, Nicks bo Nicks nineteen of thirty three and defeat against the Ravens for two twenty three, no touchdowns, one pick, He was sacked four times, six carries for thirty six yards, and then Courtland Sutton one pass, one completion, one touchdown, two bo Nicks seven catches himself for one twenty two. I'll say Kansas City minus ten is a placeholder here sight unseen tonight.

Yeah listen, uh, yeah, you're about you're about right nine and a half pretty much everywhere right now.

I would assume anything on your ten people start betting the chiefsh Okay.

I don't know why that that feels big. Hey, you get the bucks coming in tonight about that same number.

It always feels big when the Chiefs have a division game done.

It really does. He and like this new look Chiefs team just to the don't. I don't trust them to cover huge numbers like this. I don't. This might actually be a dead.

They do agree that when we do power rankings that the Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions, no matter the order that you have them in, are clearly the top three teams of NFL.

Yes, And I don't know what order I will put them in, but those three, yes, okay for sure.

One more Falcons at Saints Falcons at Saints Falcons beat the Cowboys. Yes, and I don't know how much of this game you caught, but the final score twenty twenty seven to twenty one, it was not this close. You never really thought Dallas was always hanging around, but you never really thought they had a chance, or at least I didn't. Seven to three Atlanta.

Damn. It felt like Atlanta was like always one play away from like opening the.

Thing up more, and they didn't. Seven to three Atlanta. Dallas has a fourth and one. This is in the second quarter at the Atlanta forty four Ceedee Lamb stopped for a three yard loss and that leads to an Atlanta fifty three yard drive cousins of Darnell Mooney from thirty six out on fourth and three, wide open touchdown, fourteen to three Atlanta. So there's a lot of moments in this game you're like, oh, Atlanta's gonna extend the lead every time.

Is that the one where the defensive backs ran into each other? That was great?

I don't know if that was Dallas down fourteen to three. Seventy yard drive Dack to Dowdell from three off multiple bobbles, That was another great play yesterday where Dowdell bobbled it and caught it on his back in the end zone.

I thought, I told it. Took me watching it like four times to realize that the defender never touched never touched the ball, Like yeah, like Rico juggled it somehow seventeen times.

Rico swab fourteen to ten Atlanta at that point, that would be the score at the half. Then Dallas another fourth down, fourth and two at their own thirty eight to start the third quarter. The down four, they decided to go with a face punt so bad Brian Anger incomplete intended for CJ. Goodwin. Did you know they pointed this out? Did you know that on fake punts you can absolutely destroy the intended receiver.

I don't. I don't want to sit here and say I knew that for sure. But when I was watching it, like when you watch the first replay, you're like, what is.

Go, oh, yeah, that's fake punch, that's and that's the flaw in that play call when it's.

A one online. I think were they expecting there? I have no idea. I really like Anger like almost threw the back shoulders short, but like how much further do you want him to go?

It gave Atlanta short field Cousin's to Rey Ray from eleven, touchdown twenty one to ten. Dallas would have another fourth and one at the Atlanta forty nine. Then they have too many men on the field, so they had a penalty, They had a punch, so they were just awful on four downs. It was twenty one to thirteen, like Dallas again was still hanging around, but Atlanta got a subsequent touchdown Algieran from six to make it twenty seven to thirteen. Rush had to come in because Dak was out with the hamstring. We have to check on that this week. They got it too, twenty seven to twenty one, but only with you know, eighty eight seconds left in the game and the on side kick failed as it always does. They're at New Orleans. I'll say Atlanta minus two and a half.

It is three three and a half right now. It was a bet for me at three.

Wow.

Okay, we'll come back looking for value.

Not sure what I like so far. The best come on a on a numbers game.

Numbers game on VSA. These Sports Vetting Network.

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Stream watch replays of your favorite VSON shows, easily streamed video to your smart TV. Browse clips by sport, or use the search vature to find the specific Vson expert insights you're interested in. The vson Watch app free to download for both Apple and Android users, so do not delay. Visit the Apple or Google App Store now to download the all new vson Watch app now and become part of the sports Betting network. I jumped on Twitter here Kelly, and there's it's a big Kim Kardashian controversy. She's wearing a princess Princess dies two hundred thousand dollars, a cross, a necklace. I think she looks lovely.

I think she too, A collector of fide items apparently, think she looks lovely.

I can see why people might not think be offended. I think she looks great. We get tweets at being the book and by the way, let me just say again, Thank you so much to everybody who has been so kind to take even a moment to write me a tweet about my mom's passing. They're coming in this morning as well. I could read them. I'm going to respond to them all personally. I won't do it here on the show, so we get tweets will be the non my mom tweets. This is from Buddhist Man. I heard Antonio Pearce moved out after his dispute with building management could not be amicably amicably resolved regarding him and delicious having to pay extra to watch the F one race from the building's rooftop image of the Impala driving from Buddhist is that? Is that really a heating up around you? Construction F one? Now, Stevie Fesik is not gonna like hearing this, and I don't want to drink. I don't want to jinx this say it. But with about seventeen days left before F one part duh, it hasn't been nearly as bad, not nearly, not even close.

Last year was a disaster. I don't apologize, I don't apologize for how many times we.

Complained about it, but it was horrible last year. I wanted to move, but it's so again. I don't want to jinx it because there's still seventeen days. So far, so good, because all the stands are up already. Yeah, traffic that they're not diverting me away from going to work, right, you go that.

Way, right, I don't want to I don't want to say for sure I would have listened to someone say this to me last year. But if someone was like, yeah, it's not going to be nearly as bad yes year, and this and this is what they were talking about.

Of course, part of it was that I was away last week, so maybe I didn't experience.

When I've been down there. It just seems it seems like stuff's going up with how I really realize it, Yep, I.

Hope it continues. Like I said, Las Vegas five to one to four, YO. They say it's been thirty years since our team has been seven and two. He's talking about the Skins. Do you remember was that a year we went or won a Super Bowl? I'm sure we both were doing something non football sports betting relator or we were doing something non football sports betting related. Welcome Back, nineteen ninety six. The last time that Washington was seven and two. That team wasn't any good and they finished I just looked it up. I'm like ninety six, and I'd like tripping on some year I forget now. They finished third in the division. They finished nine and seven.

Who is a quarterback?

I think it was Gus Farott.

I was going to say, you could, you could, you could rattle off like one of like eighteen names there. I thine like during that time period, I'd be like, yeah.

Sure that. I think it was Heath gone already, Heath Shuler gone? And was Gus Arrett? Was that the year Gus Farott banged his helmet into the wall in celebration against the Giants. They weren't that special. That was like a Stephen Davis team. This is from Tom f t for three says, you know you listen to a numbers game too much. When your kid asked who's scored for Washington and you respond the incomparable one, it goes, that's absolutely correct. That's how you should respond to trip tepper. The late first half score of the day, de Marcado's touchdown for Arizona was so unlikely that it even caught the NFL Red Zone production team napping, they quickly rejoined the feed when Demarcato was at the Bears twenty five with no Bears defender in sight. That was the poster child of what I was talking about yesterday, impossible scores. This was the most amazing of all of them, where you're like, every one of these games, it ends up being the key moment because it goes from a tightish game to oh now they're just going to coast home the rest of the way, just complete defensive gaffes. And this is Mike Rowse with Kelly's keen expert knowledge of college basketball. Should we expect a guessing lines college basketball version this year?

Can you imagine anything worse?

Oh? My god?

Like Long Beach State versus whoever on Dannis. I couldn't even think of the second team versus Weavers State, Like I don't know seven and a half.

When Hoops Peterson used to grace us with our presence on a numbers game, I used to do. I used to ask him just random, you know, there's three hundred plus D one college basketball. I used to be like Abilene Christian go and Greg, and Greg would do this thing where he would stare at me and then as soon as I said go, he would then turn to the camera and he would just vomit out like two minutes worth of details. And he could have been lying about the whole thing. I wouldn't know, right, Yeah, he's always the guy like, I'm sure he could still do this.

He could rattle off the top six on the depth chart, no problem, like for whatever school you want to bring.

Up, no doubt about it. All right, let's get some games in.

Here, all right, Sunday early window forty nine ers at the Buccaneers.

Niners on a by they're supposed to get CMC and green Law back and Drake green Law.

Back as well.

Yeah you're like, yeah, you don't.

It's I beat it. I mean, that's sure.

The plan was that they were supposed to get these guys back after the All Star after the All Star break, after their bye. Pardon me, after their bye. We'll see he believe anything on McCafe. Reason is the beginning, No, I I was the one who a month and a half again ago, was like, are we sure he's ever playing again? No?

You were, I know, And it's like every update from the beginning of the seasons has been like, I don't know if this is real or not, but it feels like you're lying to be. It feels like.

You're willfully telling me a story like Tampa Bay Place tonight. I just said San Francisco, no man's land. I put him at minus five and a half.

Oh yeah, we don't have much to talk about with this one. Six six and a half to the Niners right now, next which I guess I get early windows Steelers at the commander's.

Oh good game, All right, here's the deal. Steelers on a buy two good game.

Just just go say that every time now for the commanders. For us, that's actually a game.

Listen, you want to have a commander's talk, we're gonna have it. Here's the thing about the Commodore's and we're gonna do our NFL Top ten our rankings coming up tomorrow or the next day. They are no worse than like the eighth best team in football, and the only thing preventing them from bringing a couple places higher is that they haven't really beaten any buddy yet. Yeah right, so until we see that, you can't really make them that you know, any higher than that.

To me.

But here's the thing, and I've said this a few times. It is really hard beating a team that does not turn the ball over and does not punt. It's kind of like a fundamental football one oh one. You know how many punts tress Way has had this season? In nine games, He's had nineteen punts and some of those were in like the non competitive portion of the game, right, So just think about the Raiders have nineteen turnovers. So the Raiders are averaging more than more than one turnover per half. Washington, just my point of comparison, is averaging barely more than one punt per half this year. Wow, barely more than one punt per half. If Tressway does not see the field, and if Jayden Daniels only has two picks and Washington only has three turnovers, period, that is a really tough football team to beat. And yesterday, I'll say it again, Jayden Daniels always makes the right decision. He is so unbelievably smart out there and so gifted and so talented that again, they haven't played a great competition level yet, but everybody they're playing. That game yesterday was a great example of skins gone by versus present day. They lose that game yesterday, Yesterday, we never a doubt, never a doubt, because you know he matriculated every time. Washington minus four, Washington minus four, Now you are high.

That is two and a half.

Give me the Skins.

It's a bed for gilt.

Jayden fifteen of twenty two for two oh nine yesterday, two touchdowns, no picks, eight carries for thirty five yards. I like that one. If he's less than three, I'll take Washington.

Yeah, I like it too. These are two teams though, like you broke it down perfect Bath Commanders. I can't I can't say anything, but am I sure how good they are based off the competition. Now they're still kind of blurry to me that way, but they've been damning impressive In the Steelers team, I don't know, since Russell Wilson's taken over, they look a little bit more dangerous.

If you go through, like if you did your top ten quarterbacks list. Jan Daniels is no worse like conservatively than like seventh conservatively. He's that good. Let's do it nothing, I'm going to do that during a break. Oh wait, do we do another one? Yeah, let's do one more? No, No, no, we gotta save this. If I think it's who it is? Who's next?

Jaguars?

Oh no, we have to talk about that Jaguars game, Titans Chargers anyway. I just want to say this about Oh, Titans, Chargers. You want to do that? Sure? All right, Titans, we talked about Chargers. Is not much to talk about. Chargers beat the Browns yesterday, and that was that was that sound you hear is Jamis crashing back to Earth.

Seven three? James was great Jamis and then sucky.

James is a quint essential Jameis Winsley. Game seven to three, Chargers, nine thirty left in the second quarter, Chargers third play of the ensuing drive, third and six at their own thirty four, Herbert to Quenton Johnston, wide open for sixty six. It wasn't all James. The Browns defense was horrible.

Yeah.

Then Cameron Dicker misses a pat thirteen to three. You're like, this is weird. Cleveland three and now Chargers five play sixty yards Dobbins from sixteen out twenty to three. I had, by the way I had the Browns yesterday this game, I was completely wrong about twenty to three third quarter. So here's the Jamis part. Cleveland second and goal at the Chargers. Five, jamis picked by Elijah Moulden in the end zone. Later Cleveland first intendeth the Chargers. Thirty eight jamis picked by a Lohigh Gilman. Later Cleveland stopped on downs and then Dicker misses a forty four yard field goal. He's never missed that ever. Then Cleveland jamis picked by tarheb Still and then later Hopkins would have a field goal blocked. Dobbins, by the way would run four times forty six yards to make it twenty seven to three. Only a garbage time touchdown for a Cleveland will make it twenty seven to ten. Chargers by seven over tennessee full seven.

Yeah, you are light seven and a half eight. Eight's out there.

I'm always light on the Chargers. I thought seven I was gonna catch up, but still not. Apparently, that's a horrible football game. Jim Harbaugh, it done looking for value. Continuing with week ten, next.

The numbers told the story. Now he's it's one of those idiots will believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on our.

Number two of a numbers game at Visa and the sports betting network Visa dot Com. Game plus iHeart radio, YouTube TV.

Aready taking us in.

We appreciate it. You don't take us in all four ways, but any one of those four ways, we appreciate it. Skill Alexander. It is Kelly Bidlin live from Circle Resort Casino here in downtown Las Vegas, majestic, glorious, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. Wh's finally cooler, finally, Yeah, it's cool. Yeah.

I gotta like remember to grab a jacket.

Me too. I did the same thing the guy at the front. He was like, hey, you got your jacket. I'm like what I mean?

Like you and I have often talked about this, but like, for as much as we complain about the heat in Vegas or being cold out here, it really doesn't matter all that much because I'm not outside that much. Like it's just I'm like in temperature controlled area, the temperature controlled area. But then there are all these freezing days where you like walk out like, okay, I'm kind of cold, kind of cold.

What did I miss when I was gone. One of the things, obviously was the World Series. I hope everybody cast on the Dodgers, and I hope everybody cashed on the Dodgers in five.

Yeah, nice hit you had that.

Well, the Dodgers in five thing was miraculous.

It was you would have enjoyed. Let's see hits from the show. Last week, Matt Brown with the worst Halloween candy list I've ever seen in my life.

Oh, he put his top five kids. We did a power ranking of candies. He was like a sixty nine year old man.

What did you object to? He had Dove dark chocolate bars on there, which I'm like, nobody discovers that till they're like in the mid thirties of dark ye, yeah, exactly. There was that gosh, what was the other one? York peppermint patties, which I don't know.

I don't mind the York pepper, you know.

Maddy like used it as like He's like it works as a mint or a tree, and I'm like, this is not like it's candy, man, what is it gonna be? Multi purpose? There was that. I think you would have enjoyed the Oh yeah, here it is right here. He had kit Cat sour Patch kids Twicks. Kit Cat is a one yeah, and then he also liked he described that as being a lighter snack, and I was like, all right, health like healthy, in shape. Dudes can't make foodless. It's really uh. The one one I kept thinking about you last week with was the Will came on on Tuesday and of course had me hook line and sink her into a prop for the World Series. And you aren't going to be shocked to hear what this was. It was once show Hey dislocated the shoulder under on the Hits. So I lived through that through two games. Gil got what we got the last one, hope that was?

I mean, honestly, how remarkable was that first of all games one end obviously five get Game one the the Freddie Freeman Grand Slam to win it down to their last out the Dodgers was just unbelievable to begin the series. And then Game five we'll never see anything like that again, where the Yankees completely botched their five to nothing lead in the top half of the fifth inning to give up the lead, and they retook it eventually six to five, but then obviously gave it up seven to six. But that five run fifth for the Dodgers, which featured Aaron Judge just unable to catch a fly ball linerish right to him the East six. Okay, you'll see that from time to time, and then Garrett Cole with the brain fart not going at first like it was just wild.

It's just an a like.

As you're watching it, and we did like we do Shiven. The World series was a great sort of wine down. It was just unbelievable to see and I don't know that we'll ever see anything quite like that again. So the Dodgers was one thing. Hitting them in five was a miracle at six to one, But there was a world where the Yankees would have been up three to two. That world is not this world.

Yeah, you would have been laughing your ass off, man, Like I'm sitting here talking about like we have Belinger, right, we went backs in the chair. We're breaking down the whole Bellinger bet from like four years ago. At the same thing. I'm like, show he hurt his shoulder and he's still going to bat, Like Will Gabon gives out the prop and I'm like, yeah, shoulders fine. Shulder's fine. Of course came won the first game of loses.

That was like that was like the first week of primetime. Actually it was like something like that all right, Week ten in the NFL. The only thing that I love so far I think is Washington. If they're under three against Pittsburgh, I think I still love that.

Yeah, you can get met two and a half right now, with all.

Due respect to the magic beans of Mike Tomlin. Yeah, and he does, with all due respect. Let me see if I can find something else here. What's next?

All right? Next up we have Vikings at Jaguars. This is your last early window game. We did sneak in a late window.

That's right, we had we passed on this or I passed on this earlier. Minnesota, as we mentioned, beat the Colts last night. Darnold was twenty eight of thirty four for two ninety and if you just see that part of it, you're like, wow, he must have been incredible. Eh, his two picks were really bad. Jefferson seven for one thirty seven. They're at Jacksonville. Jacksonville has still only won two games. This game against Philly. By the way, a lot of survivors had Philly too, And this game was interesting because it was a blowout and then it wasn't at all really quickly. Yeah, Philadelphia had to punt on their first drive, but Austin Tremail fumbled on the punt return. Kali Ringo recovered two plays later hurts the saquon for twenty nice cash touchdown seven to nothing, iggles ten twenty two left. First quarter after Jacksonville punt teams traded three out of Philadelphia on a drive that featured an unbelievable saquon backward hurdle. They end up with an Elliott forty three yard field goal to go up ten to nothing. Early second quarter, nine to twenty left the sad quarter. Have you ever seen no a player do that ever in your life? It takes a lot. We've seen a million bajillion football games. We've seen almost everything. I have never seen that. I have never seen that. I don't know that we'll ever see anything like it again. I don't even gil. I don't even know what the right reaction to it is. Besides oh, he's ridiculously athletic, you.

Know what I mean. Like, it's just it was kind of a weird play. Like it's not like it was a massively consequential play. No, it just led to a field. But still it was.

I just think of the Giants owner from the Giants hard knocks at how like devastated he was. He was, like if he ends up on Philadelphia. I'm going to really be upset.

This isna time he does something I think of him.

Is that a mirror? I believe it is. Then Lawrence picked off a deflection by Zach Bond that leads to a short forty yard field third and seventeen at the Jacksonville nineteen. Saquet to the house again, another one of these plays. Yesterday, We're like, how does this happen? Third and seventeen of the nineteen. He just runs it in seventeen to nothing, but there's a penalty on Jacksonville. So Philly gets the ball at the one, so they opt to go for two. Since they get at the one, the Turks Bush fails, so it's sixteen to nothing Philly. We go to halftime. The biggest thing I've been hearing this morning, just from you know, anecdotally, is folks, they're so sick and tired of Philly trying for these two point conversions. If you get the ball at the one, you should go for two.

It's not a bad thing you should go, especially with how successful they've been with that play.

You can't you can't, like, don't arm Chariot is like, oh, you shouldn't know, by the way, and people get all the math wrong. The expected value of a two point conversion from the two is almost exactly pardon me with the expected value is of an extra point, because if you hit fifty percent of your two point conversions from two, your expected value is right around one point. And if you hit close to one hundred percent, which you don't anymore on your extra points, your expected value is still close to one. But if you get the two point conversion at the one, you should go for it every time. So at sixteen to nothing, Philly then a seventy eight yard drive which included an incredible John Dotson thirty six yard catch by the way, Johan Dotson, Welcome to Philadelphia. Finally, three plays later, hurts in from eighteen twenty two to nothing. After another penalty, they get the ball at the one yard line. They decide to go for two, and it fails.

Again.

The Tiks push is not working for them this year. It's almost as if Jason Kelsey mattered twenty two to nothing. So again people like moaning about them not going for the extra points. It's just it's just not accurate. You're talking about the result. Now, Okay, twenty two to nothing. Right, we're in the third quarter, Jacksonville wakes up sixty one yard drive because this game's over, right, twenty two to nothing. Jacksonville sixty one yard drive, Lawrence in from one, and then Lawrence to Brian Thomas Junior for two to make it twenty two to eight with five twenty six. Then the first play of the ensuing drive. Did you see this Saquon four yard gain? He fumbles Trayvon Walker thirty five yards of the house. Trevor to Evan Ingram for two. It's twenty two to sixteen and the play. The Saquon fumble survived a replay where it appeared like a Jacksonville defender touched him, but they ruled that the touch was I guess a split second or half a second or whatever. They deemed early enough that it did not cause Saquon to go to the turf, so it was ruled as Saquon fumbled on his own untouched.

Yeah, that was a weird one. Well, it was a very weird one. I'm actually glad I saw I think I saw it so late after the fact that I couldn't I couldn't get wrapped up in the.

Moment of care about it too much. Yo, So Philly's missing all their two point of versions. Jacksonville two for two. It's twenty two to sixteen. Then Philly fourth and one at the Jacksonville twenty five. They're up six.

This is still in the.

Third quarter or early late third quarter. They decide to go for it. Did you have a problem with that? They're up six? They went for it. No took this push. They decided we can't do it so well. Hertz scrambling, can't find anyone. He throws it away, So Jacksonville ends up with the ball down six. Early fourth quarter. They get it to fourth and three at the Philly forty nine with twelve fifty seven to go, They decide to punt. Do you have a problem with that? Like every decision in this game like merited some kind of review. Was it a good one? Or was it a bad one?

Where was that one from? Again?

Fourth and three? They're down six, fourth and three at the Philly forty nine with twelve fifty seven to go. They punt. Yeah, eh okay, Philly twenty one yard game by Saquan to start the next drive. Four plays later to Devonte for forty six. Then third and twenty two at the Jacksonville twenty five h to Smith in the end zone, amazing catch, touchdown. I thought he was out and it was reviewed and they said, no, he's in. I thought his shin hit out of bounds before his second foot, but they were like, no, it's good.

We haven't had any of those.

But again, it's like again, but what are we talking about?

Third?

What did I just say? Third and.

Twenty two at the Jacksonville twenty five. How do you let that happen?

Yeah?

Twenty eight to sixteen. The two point try fails again as they try to go up fourteen. Then Jacksonville nine plays seventy yards Lawrence in from four to kind of to twenty eight twenty three with four h four left. We still have a ballgame, Philadelphia. This, this sequence has to be talked about, because the announcers just let it go Philadelphia. Second and thirteen, they're up five at the Jacksonville forty eight. Saquon goes right for nine yards and in his brain he decided to prioritize keeping the clock going over getting the first down, so he slides four yard short of the sticks, and so, of course, then on third and four he gets stuffed and then Elliott misses a fifty seven yard field goal. Try up five because that's what you do a five kick a fifty seven yard He misses it, so Jacksonville gets the ball down five with two to eleven left. The announcers were not nearly critical enough of Saquon in that situation. Jacksonville gets it to first intend at the Philly thirteen. They're thirteen yards away from winning this lawrence intended for to Ernest Johnson for Atlanta Studios, overthrown picked by Nakobe Dean ball game and the Eagles survive.

What a finish? Yeah, it was not a game and completely became a game.

Minnesota minus three at Jacksonville.

I do not have it.

Four y okay, welcome back afternoon games and the primetime games.

Next numbers gave on VS these sports vetting.

Network looking for some action. Our friends at first bet, have you covered? Sign up to day to unlock exclusive promotions. Was watching wager on hundreds of exciting horse races every day from across the country and around the world. Sign up at first bet dot com. That's the number one st bet dot Com. Use promo code VS in two hundred to claim a twenty percent rebate for your first sixty days up to two hundred dollars head to first bet dot com. Today we get tweets, so once again just sort of overrun with really sweet comments about my mom. And I couldn't be more more grateful to you, and I will respond to all. I promise I will as the days here go by. These are the non non mom related tweets. This is from Zachary Cohen. Do you know Zachary Cohen betting on X You know that guy?

I do. I did have to ask you our Zach because he didn't didn't tag me in this.

He says, great to have Gil back on a numbers game. Thank you, Zach. He goes, if I know anything about my people, he's talking about the tribe Kelly, I'd put the over under at twenty four and a half Italian cookies consumed this week. Definitely over. It's a very uh, very tribal joke right there. So that's a a a portion of the audience.

What's an Italian cookie?

Uh, it's a.

Little little cookie deal. I can't really describe it. Yeah, googling. By the way, the the shiv of spread is just it's a remarkable thing. I tell you, I tell you this is this is like gallows humor. But I tell you, when my dad passed away a little less than three years ago, did I ever tell you this story? I think it's a little air My my best friend Tommy was there, of course, and my and my brother was there, and my brother is really slim, and Tommy at the time was not, and so I was, you know, Tommy was talking about He goes, this is the greatest this is that my dad's shiva, right, because my dad had just passed away with just buried my dad. He goes, this is the greatest shiv of spread I've ever had in my life, Tommy said, because he feels comfortable. He's like cockroach, kind of cockroach of the Cosby Show. And so my brother comes over. I'm having like one of these little mini croissants things with like a you know, you know how they are, and there's bread involved, and so my brother, who's like really slim, pulls off the bread and eats off my plant. And so Tommy goes. Tommy quips, he goes, he goes, really you can't have it with the bread, seay, and Ron goes, maybe you shouldn't have it with the bread, and so Tommy goes, maybe I should kill you so we can get a second great Shiva spread? Is that my dad Shiva?

Shiva?

Humor everybody? It's not for everybody, James sutt. We were out there last week and traffic wasn't as horrible as last year, like you said, except for Saturday night when the Eagles were at the Sphere and it took us thirty minutes to get on COVAD. I still hate it, but you guys live it. The UH.

So I went to the Eagles. What was that few weeks ago, a month ago? Something like that? You're going? Is that you said you're gonna be going the uh? I've only I mean I've been to the Sphere twice. You two last year, Eagles this year. The exit process last year for the Sphere, I don't know what changed or why it changed it. Maybe it is f one related. But however I exited the Sphere last year. It was way easier than leaving the Eagles concert this year because like all of a sudden, I was like on the street. I was like, why am I just on Las Vegas Boulevard? Like they made us walk forever and then you just hit the front of Palazzo there on Las Vegas Bulevard, Like, where are we supposed to go?

You gonna make a controversial comment about the Eagles. Not the Philadelphia Eagles, but the Eagles. They have like five hit songs that all are like the same chords that they just like changed the tune marginally about Yeah, it.

Was a it was a good show. This is this is sound like we live in this world too, much like the TV production world, because all I did the whole show was like kept watching, like kept watching the wall what the.

Sphere was playing.

And I'm like they used the same video roll out for like in this part for you too.

It's not good.

I'm like, what a nerd.

Dame Stott also continues by saying, he goes, I know, a couple weeks ago you talked about bets you didn't make. I had Freddy Freeman clicked at twenty five to one MVP and at the last minute, I think his ankle. They said he wouldn't let him play multiple games, so he said he went with maximum and see instead oive A. Yeah, I did not have Freddy free for MVP. I had Mookie and I had Taoskar.

Yeah, yeah, I didn't have one either. We had like Adam Berg came on a Tuesday. Was what after game one or two where he was like even money stole? It was one of those like, as I'm typing up the graphic, I'm like, how's he even money?

Yeah?

Like Adam comes on says it, He's like, I don't know how he's still leaving Bundy. I'm betting it and smart.

And then it was what was it game?

What did the Yankees win? Game four?

Right?

So he was like minus eighteen hundred and then the Yankees won and he dropped out to like minus nine hundred, and I'm like, even at minus nine hundred, this is a good bet.

There was zero controversy as to who the MVP was. Yeeah. This is from Jamie Lava. He says, I'm hearing boiled chicken. Just missed the Matt Brown candy list. Good to see you back with Kelly, have a good day job like that?

Give me so much crap? Oh yeah, I looked up Italian cookies too, but I didn't know that was like the catch all name for those guys.

There was more than that though, believe me. Yeah, food.

This might be from Matt Brown. Actually, this is really screwing with my head today. I don't know who did this at Viison, but they left this little package of this is Motts assorted fruit candies. But like Motts, like the apple sauce. Right, that's all I've ever seen Mots or apple juice, yeah, or apple juice right like that's it's the same logo Mots. I've never seen this before in my life. That's really messing with my head.

Fascinating. By the way, colonoscopy hack. For those of you who are going through a cool instead of using water, use Mots apple juice. It's allowed very actionable information for the for the older crowd. All right, what's next?

What do we have a man? All right? Eagles and Cowboys?

Okay, So, by the way, by the way, you hear what I'm saying about the Saquon play. As great as Saquon was, that was a really he could have cost them the game by doing what he did. I know, it's become very in voguely running backs get it in certain situations you should slide, like we saw that with h with the Niners running back last week.

But it's gotten to the point where we have seen it multiple times where they get themselves in trouble.

Grendo did it. Obviously, people have done it more famous, more famous games. But Saquon his goal should have been to get to the sticks. Instead he slid and they end up having to punt. And I just again the announcers can they barely mention it? Well, you know he probably should have tried to you know, no, man, he needs to be a viscerated for that, not a viscerated. But you know it need to be more critical, you said. Philadelphia Hurts eighteen of twenty four for two thirty two touchdowns, no Picksy was sacked three times, thirteen carries for sixty seven and a touchdown, and the great Saquon twenty seven for one point fifty nine and a touchdown, three catches for forty in a touchdown, one fumble loss. Yes, one brain fart, but man, the backwards hurdle that will be an iconic play in any NFL films, thing we see for decades to come.

Just so great.

At Dallas, Dallas, we talked about losing to the Falcons in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score twenty seven to twenty one suggests DAK eighteen of twenty four for one thirty three before he had to exit and Cooper Rush game in Cooper was the one who engineered the garbage touchdown at the end. I shouldn't say garbage. They had it. They were on side kick away from you know, having it on their racket. I guess to win, but I guess we don't know the DAK status. We're going to get an MRI on DAK on DAK today, So Philly had Dallas for me becomes a with a DAK. With DAK without DAK proposition here, I would assume, you know, they say about assuming that DAK is worth about I don't know three points more than Cooper Rush. I think if if DAK plays, it's probably Philly minus three. If DAK does not, I bet you it's about Philly minus six somewhere in that area. Yeah.

Right now they are hanging six six and a half on this game.

Not that I believe DAK is three points better than Cooper Rush, because it really don't six and a half.

You said, now six six and a half out there yet.

Dallas is. But Philly's not winning anything either, Philly's not looking great. How about Washington has not played Philly or Dallas yet.

Yeah, it is pretty wild. He also gotta we gotta look out for a J. Brown too. He got hurt as well, a lot of injury on that game.

Awkward exit. They went back from halftime and then he left.

Yeah, and then and then what coming back today? It's not supposed to be serious. But what the heck does that mean? You know, it's a he's one of these wide receivers. Talk about this with DK Metcalf too. It's just, man, they seem to mean more just because they can change the game in one play so easily. They mean so they mean so much. That will be I'll be a pretty strong look to Philly for me, actually. But you got to wait and hear a little bit on some of this injury information. WHAT'SX we got ceedee Lamb too, Like there's there's injuries all over the place in that game.

By the way, you were speaking of that. We didn't mention this. I didn't mention this because we went through the Chicago Arizona game real quick and focused on the fact that Demarcato had that ridiculous touchdown run in the closing seconds of the first half, and that really defined that game. I did have Arizona, by the way, going into that game, Arizona had played like the easiest schedule Chicago had played. Excuse me, Chicago had played the easiest Arizona I had played the hardest. So that was kind of a handicap in that game. But speaking of you know, I don't know if you heard it, I was talking about the announcers didn't do enough about the Saquon gaff. Iron Eagle was very appropriate about the Bears keeping Caleb Williams in that game late, Like that game is over, it's twenty seven to nine, then it's twenty nine to nine. The lead is just extending, and Caleb is in that game, and I don't know the extent of his injuries, but like he's he's like gimpy at the end of that game. Get him out of there? Why is he in there?

Yeah? And then there's like what there's reports out yesterday and today, like they he refluses losing the locker room and style.

I don't hasn't he lost the locker room three or four different times in his career as a coach.

Remember we were talking about I don't know why I thought about this sacuse. Clearly he didn't win it, but it was it was man. I felt like I got a lot of craft in the summer for mentioning his name during like first coach fire stuff from Beebo, and it's like, he's it doesn't matter if you drafted the quarterback. He sucks like he sucks.

It's a four to fourteen.

But there's arguments in the locker room, like what's going on here?

By the way, there's one more thank you guys back here for putting this up. We've got to talk about this one. We're talking about it. When I was making the case about it's really tough to beat, talking about the Commodore's really tough to beat a team that doesn't turn the ball over, it doesn't punt. This is from a Commander Sean Just in case you wanted another crazy stat according to True Media Sports, that's Paul Carr's Outfit's True Media Sports. He said Washington is averaging forty two point five yards per offensive drive, the highest average for any offense in weeks one through nine.

Ever, that is wild. Ever, it's a big word.

Ever, especially when you capitalize it looks even better.

That says it all.

We'll come back. We got a few more games to get to and then a tribute to my mom right here on a.

Numbers game, Numbers game on v SID these Sports Vetting.

Network Numbers game back here at Circa Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas. Don't forget college basketball begins today. I know, Wish Nevin the crew, they're all ready to live bet. But of course we've got our betting guide that's out, and if you have not gotten it yet, it is not too late. Matt Human's top fifty rankings all thirty two conferences previewed. Woulden't award candidate's futures in season long prop bets, those betting nuggets on every major conference team from Greg Hoops Peterson. Starts your Vsent Post subscription today for as little as nine to ninety nine. Get instant access to the guide, those daily best bets, twenty four to seven video and our exclusive betting splits. Give yourself an edge of the season sign They have vsen dot com slash subscribe. That's vsin dot com slash subscribe. We get tweets at beating the book. Always appreciate the feedback. This is from This is from Brian Morianan Brian Moriannan who was asking his question he goes, He said, want to argument on the two point conversion from the one and a half after a penalty is NFL kickers are one hundred and seventeen of one hundred and eighteen from twenty to twenty nine yards of this season ninety nine point two percent, which is a lot higher than the point after touchdown percentage. Again though, so if it's let's go with your numbers, ninety nine point two percent, that is a so it's expected value again of one, basically one, just shy of one. The two point conversions from the two have a fifty percent, you know, fifty percent conversion rate roughly, which is an expected value of also right around one. So there isn't any advantage to kicking an extra point there. I hope that makes sense. If you're if you're nailing fifty percent of two point conversions, it ends up being the same thing. And so there are situations which call for, hey, it's just as good of a chance, if not better, for me to go for two here, So they do that. So a lot of the complaints you hear about that is very results oriented. This is let's see, this is from a super jerk. I think this is the angriest man in Kentucky, in New Jersey. I think he changed his name. He says, I cannot tell you how much I wanted Philly to lose that game. This guy is the worst game manager he's talking about, Sirianni. I've ever seen in my life go for two up sixteen and nothing explain that to me. I think we just did you bring the tie into play in the three score game? Out of play? Yeah, look, he is. He is certainly one that is uh, you know, is worth questioning because it's there's been a lot in his short career, and the point is that he's not coordinating the offense or the defense. So he's like the CEO manager. You've got one job, and he's more concerned about it, you know, again asking Saquon, hey, you want to break that record than he is about you know, proper decision making. But I don't think that this was as egregious people were making it out to me, and then you found Machi says, I will now forever associate fruit snacks with Kolonoskobi's for the rest of my life.

Thanks guys. That is from Michelle who builds our graphics here for Visa. Oh is that her?

You're welcome, Michelle, You're welcome.

You weren't talking about the fruit stacks though, right, you were talking about the apple sauce.

I was talking about the apple juice.

Apple juice, apple juice, even ice creamed.

Up, because the prep for that is one of the more disgusting things ever. But if you use the mots instead, if you throw the powder in the motts, it's free and clear once again, real and clear. Look, if you're looking for that fifty to seventy year old demograph, you found the right show. All right, let's get through the rest of these games.

Wait, yeah, right for twenty five Eastern Jets at Cardinals. All right, Jets.

Jets beat the Texans on Thursday night. That game, boy, the first half of that game was a slog. Jets win it. The Jets schedule is super easy. The rest of the way. Man, they're three, they got three, and we are they three and six.

Now.

Rogers was twenty two to thirty two for two eleven, three touchdowns, no picks. He was sack twice. Davante seven for ninety one in a touch Garrett Wilson nine for ninety and two touchdowns and a great catch. One of those was just iconic. Was a OBJ like in the end zone Arizonas we talked about beating Chicago last night yesterday afternoon, pardon me, and a lot of that had to do with that sequence. At the end of the first half, Kyler was thirteen of twenty for one to fifty four. He only completed thirteen to four ward passes. James Connor eighteen for one oh seven. On the ground, they held Chicago to two hundred and forty one total yards despite being minus two in turnovers, they get the easy win. I split the difference between pickam and three. I said, Arizona minus one and a half.

I love me some good James Connor, Arizona. Why am I not fighting this?

Have have one jump?

Killy bid Cardinals one one and a half way favorite. Damn was hide down there.

I knew we could do it.

All right, Let's go next, all right? Next up Sunday night football, Lions at Texans.

Lines of Texans, and we just saw Texans lose to the Jets. CJ. Straud was eleven of thirty for one ninety one. Mixon was most of the offense for the Texans twenty four for one oh six. Tank Dell played well in the absence of both Digs and Colins six for one twenty six Detroit beats green Bay yesterday. This was a game on paper right where you're like this, maybe looking more forward of this game than anyone yesterday, and this game kind of sucked. It wasn't in clement weather. Just from a I'm just talking about, not regarding your bets, but just from a fans perspective, it was three to zhing green Bay, Detroit fourth and goal at the seven on the ensuing drive encroachment on the Packers, then golf to a mont Saint Brown, a monro Saint Brown from two out, seven to three Detroit first play of the second quarter, and a Monroe stands on his head after that.

Later do you see that was? I caught the warrior card it word the day before. I guess someone did that celebration attribute to that. I got it on Twitter, so I thought it was pretty cool.

Green Bay later second and twenty their own thirty eight Love Goes Deep. Brian Branch called for unsportsmanlike and is ejected. We had a couple ejections Yeshy too. Then he gets the then he gets a flag for another unsports and like, so it ends up being a thirty yard player. So that leads to a mcmannus field will try from forty six. He misses it. Five point twenty three left in the second quarter, it's still seven to three. Then ten and this is again talk about late first half theme of yesterday. This game is still a one score game, right, Detroit's up ten to three, and Jordan Love, who was barely moving right, he had a little hitch in his gide up from his injury. First and ten at the thirty ill advised pass. This was like a Billy Levi's ill advised Billy Levi's play where he's under duress and he just kind of throws it.

Can do that sometimes.

Kirby Joseph picked six seventeen to three Lions at the half, and that's kind of the game because the Lions end up with a de facto double dip because they start the third quarter by going seventy one yards Gibbs in from fifteen on fourth and one twenty four to three.

Detroit. They'd win it twenty four to fourteen. That's all you need to know.

Was that sequence again, the love errant pass or the pick six and then the Lions score the first time they touch it in the second.

There were a lot of those games yesterday. You are right, a lot of the games I was really looking so many of those, well, like some of the ones that I was really looking forward to that ended up not being good football games, and then games that just became games out of nowhere that I wasn't really you know, we didn't even really it wasn't even.

Really watch such an odd day. I say, Detroit minus four at Houston.

Okay, you nailed the opener. It has been all Houston money here early apparently.

I was just thought I was convinced you were going to say all Detroit money.

I just I'm pretty shocked by this. It opened like four.

We are threes everywhere now, Okay, I like the Lions, how is that three?

I don't know. I mean, they're supposed to what this is supposed to be Nico Collins week back all that. I think. I think everybody's trying to piece together the Houston injuries all coming together.

By the way, drew from BOYC lets us know what I had said two weeks ago, which is for the Niners speaking about coming back. CMC is supposed to be back this week. Green Law was supposed to come back the following week. So I don't I don't know if that timeline still exists. Who knows.

I haven't been truth little about anything.

I love Detroit. That might be my favorite play that I might even like that more than Washington.

They are really hard to like, you know, full transparency. This is Houston's this side this week. I had this circle from weeks ago as well, thought this would be the kind of a Lion spot to go get them at. But these these Houston injuries have mounted. Oh yeah.

I mean, we don't know exactly Will Anderson. I don't know what the story is with him now. We don't exactly know what Nico Collins is going to look like when as soon as he comes back.

You're still missing digs and this Lions team has just they haven't missed a step. They keep rolling.

I mean, they're awesome. They're probably the best team in the NFL, right one of the three best. I don't care where you have them run one.

I think they're the best tame But the NFL. They could be.

I don't know if you know this guy Patrick Mahomes that exists.

I know that's the like. Is that the only part stopping you? Though? I think it's the only part stopped.

Baltimore's great too. It's any one of those three. What's the last? All right?

Monday Night football? Dolphins at Rams.

Dolphins lose to the Bills. Did you see two is line twenty five of twenty eight for two thirty.

To bring this up when you were doing the recap, I thought it was very interesting to watch Buffalo defensive strategy yesterday that almost blew up in their face because it was the whole we're gonna give you everything, just don't let don't let anybody get behind you, right and to a pick them apart?

Yeah he did? Uh?

You said, who are they playing at the Rams? Oh?

That's the last game. We haven't gone through Rams in Seattle yesterday. This is one of these games. Also was like ho hum boring, and then all of a sudden a football game broke out early three to nothing, Rams Seattle nine plays seventy yards Geno to lock it from thirty out six to three. Myers misses a pat that's the closing seconds. That's with fifty one seconds left in the second quarter. Again it happened. The Rams, with fifty one seconds left down three first intend at their own forty four Stafford picked by Rieke Woollen, Nikua ejected for throwing a punch and Seattle goes three plays seventy yards.

To the house.

Smith and Najigba for forty six. Two plays later, Smith and a Jigba for twenty four, thirteen to three Seattle. That's all in the last minute of the first out. That crazy, It was all over the league. Yes da, it was the weirdest day I remember. Third quarter, seventy five yard drive start for the Ram Stafford to DeMarcus Robinson from went out thirteen to ten Seattle eight twenty eight. Third quarter later, it's thirteen thirteen Seattle, helped along by a horrible PI call on Witherspoon. Three plays later, Justice Gino picked in the end zone by Cameron Kinjin's one hundred and three yards of the house just as twenty to thirteen Rams ten fifty nine and to go. Then later Ty Zenner punt was blocked. Seattle was set up at the Rams nineteen with eight forty four to go down seven, but second and goal to four. Geno picked by Kinchins again. Seattle finally took over down seven at their own twenty seven, with one to fifty four to go, no timeouts. Gino takes a sack. They overcome that. Then he has a sure pick dropped his babbit was good if you will. Baseball turn and then fourth and five at the Rams forty three. Gino to Smith and a jigma for twenty nine. Next play to Jackson, Smith and the Jigba for fourteen touchdown. We're going overtime twenty a piece. Seattle wins the toss. They get to fourth in inches at the Rams sixteen. Of course you have to go for it. I know Walker got stuffed, but it's overtime. You don't kick a field goal. Everybody's criticizing that is wrong. Also anyway, Rams get the ball back and then Stafford hits to Marcus for thirty nine. Ball game, Rams win at twenty six to twenty. I will say Rams by two and a half over Miami, Ding Ding Ding two and a half. I like the Lions and the Skins the best. The fact that the stop