Gill Alexander, Jason Weingarten (VSiN Contributor), and Mark Borchard (Professional MLB Bettor) break down the upcoming MLB season from all betting angles. The trio analyzes off-season moves and tries to find value and opportunities in various season-long markets. All that and more on this special 2024 MLB Betting Preview edition of the Beating The Book podcast!
Tuesday morning, March twenty six, twenty twenty four. It is the Beating the Book Podcast. It's Gil Alexander a little something different today, and by different, I mean we're back to baseball baby. Oh yes, it's awesome because again a special Beating the Book podcast investigation reveals that the baseball season is beginning in forty eight hours. We've been so wrapped up in the March Madness pod. Obviously obviously football before that, we do tennis pods here on this feed, but it's baseball season. So how we do this. We always have a preview pod and then Mark Borchard and I base Winner. We'll do a Q two and a Q three podcast as well, where we go through all the betting derivative stats. We don't do too much more baseball than that on the podcast side, but of course we cover a daily on the radio side on a numbers game with Jason Weinngarten, with Paul Spor with the aforementioned Mark Borchard.
And two of those three I'm thrilled to have join us.
On the preview pod today. I mentioned Mark Mark Borchard base Winner at base Winner on Twitter. Also does the bet Us betting show Baseball Wise daily during the baseball season Monday through Friday.
Mark, how you doing, man, I'm doing really good. I'm looking so forward to this year, Gil for so many reasons. But to answer your question, Yeah, the MLB Show on YouTube. It's a live show and it's super fun. I get to answer any questions and all questions and that's the most enjoyable part. So that's going to happen again this year, about one hundred and forty shows roughly.
And our buddy Steve Fezig listens to you all the time. And you did it last year with Jason Wyngarden, our dear friend who's been with us since the beginning as you have. Jason joins us now from his well marks from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. Jason is from under a cloud of smoke that spread apedia. Let me let me start with you, Jason, and this is doing a doing a baseball preview pod.
Two days before the season starts.
If you're not listening to us on the radio side on a numbers game, I know you're coming to this podcast. You're like a you guys, wait this long and all the best of the numbers are going I know that that part can be a noise. We're going to try to just we're gonna try to emphasize just everything that is still available right at this moment for season long. So we get to the momentarily. But Jason, just to give you some street cred here, can you rifle through at least a few of the.
Bets you've already made and where those numbers are? Now?
Sure we can start with ONEO Cruz was one of my favorites.
I got him at one hundred to one.
I see sixty five to one still at FanDuel twenty five to one at DraftKings. I think that's probably a bit of an overreaction, but you know, one hundred down to sixty five is decent before the season talking.
Talking n L MVP there by the way, yeah yeah, Mlsai Young.
I got some some Chris Sail trying to find his number here.
I don't even know if he's, oh here he is. He's thirty to one.
At draft I got him at fifty.
Again.
I'm not not thinking that that he's you know, gonna win or anything, but he is Chris Sale. I you know, I still love him. Think he's got something left in the tank. So some some value there. I got Jackson Jackson Merrill. There's do you believe there's three different rookies this year, all named Jackson Jackson, Churio, Jackson, Merrill, Jackson Holiday.
You really have to.
Be specific when referring to which which Jackson you're talking about.
But I bet Merrill.
I got fifty to one, forty five to one, and forty to one. He's now nine and a half to one at DraftKings.
Let's see what he is at FANDO. I think I saw like fifteen eleven.
Okay, cool, So he's down a bunch. He won the center field job in San Diego. And then my other MVP bet, I bet Wyatt Langford at five hundred to one at CIRCA last week.
Yeah, you're like, who Wyatt Langford? What the rookie?
He hasn't even played an MLB game yet. Yeah, I know that's why he was five hundred to one. He's down to eighty to one now, so you know, maybe I got a good grab there. I don't know. I mean, I'm just trying to grab good numbers. If he's good enough to start bat third for the defending World Series Champs before ever playing a major League game. I was pretty happy with five hundred to one there, So I have some stuff, not as much as I normally do, but the numbers I have overall are pretty good and I'm pretty happy with them.
Are any of those at the current numbers bets you would recommend.
O'Neil Cruz.
I still think, you know, if he's fully healthy and maintains as hell, you know, sixty five to one is a fairly reasonable number for his MVP case, especially if you're bullish on the Pirates.
When you kind of look look at the other.
Guys that O'Neil Cruz compares to, It's like Ronald Acuna, Fernando Tatis and Cunya is five to one, to Tease is ten to one. And honestly, I don't think the TSA is gonna win an MVP anytime soon. You know, if if you're asking me who I think has the most value, I'm just looking around O'Neil Cruz or possibly his teammate Cabrian Hayes an even bigger number like two three hundred to one, But give me O'Neil Cruz and the Pirates.
Yeah, O'Neil Cruz. By the way of the Pirates. Jason is not referring to Elie Dela Cruz of the Reds, so don't make that mistake either. We'll circle back to some awards here coming up. But I want to start mark with a season win totals because obviously those numbers are, you know, not far off, if at all, from.
What they have been.
I'm curious what your favorite ones are for the twenty twenty four baseball season.
Well, I think that I'll deal one for each league. Gill and I.
In the National League, I like the Braves over I've got them projected believe it or don't at one hundred and thirteen wins and it well, but it gives you, it gives you some uh some some room, you know, kind of at the at the end of it. And then I like the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League. So those are probably my two favorite, Like, I mean, those are my favorite teams right now. The root for coming going into the season, based on all the bets that I have, I I put out uh, well, let's see, I put out the the Rays over eighty four and a half minus one twenty. I don't know where it's right now.
Uh.
And then I put the Braves over over at one oh one point five.
So those are the two.
Teams that I'm kind of keen on this year, and uh, you know, I look, I look for good things for both teams. They have great pitching, great hitting, and great fielding. So other than that, they're they're horrible.
You know.
Let me Atlanta Braves right now at one oh one and a half at uh, let's take a shop like DraftKings, what a one and a half with the over at plus one hundred so the under is juiced at one oh one and a half. And then you're Tampa Bay Rays, which, by the way, anecdotally, I'm hearing more and more people loving the Rays when talking about bets. They're at eighty four and a half. Still eighty four and a half on the on the Tampa Bay Rays.
Let me give and let me just.
Also say this, because I reacted to your projection on the Braves. Every time I've ever reacted like you just said that your numbers say the Braves one hundred and thirteen. I can distinctly remember you coming on here. Was it last year, maybe it was the year before, where you're like, oh, yeah, I've got the Yankees projected at ninety eight or whatever it was, and it was like way out of whack, and then you were proven right, I think a couple of years ago on and I believe that was when it was. So when Mark says outlandish things, oftentimes they come true. The end of July July thirty first, a couple a few years back, you're like Robbie ray Cy Young one hundred to one bang hits. So I shouldn't ever snicker when you say something like that. So apologies, vicating give.
It doesn't happen all the time, y'all.
I appreciate that, just just to kind of, I guess, just on a high level described the methodology. There's really for me in these projections. There's no regression progression adjustments. I don't I think that's really hard to predict personally. And then the injury factor too, for me is out of it. So it's completely objective. It's a it's a pitching rating based on last one hundred and fifty plate appearance, strikeout percentages, last three hundred walk percentage, and then last one fifty expected ground ball rate, And that's pretty much the main ratings that I use for the starter and the reliever and then and I contextualize that for parks as well, and then for batters it's it adjusted base runs created last five hundred plate appearances. So it's very objective, and I just wanted to bring that out for people or like, who are you know, maybe a little bit better than me, because I will admittedly say I'm not the best guy at like progression regression and and it's it just really time consuming and there's a lot of subjectivity at it, or health analysis too, So so I think my numbers are extremely valuable for those who want to take it a little bit further to say, okay, well here's the true talent. But I think this team's going to be better because this guy is coming back, or he's not going to be hurt as much, or he's this guy's going to get hurt for this other team, that sort of thing.
Guild. Does that make sense?
Yeah? It does.
And for those who want access to your numbers, what do they do this year?
Just go over to basewinter dot com and and you got to sign up as a member.
It's ninety nine bucks.
I'm giving it away so you're able to and I do give some free stuff out on the site too that are that's very good. And there's some things that you on a daily basis that you don't have to pay anything. But I felt like, you know, for for what I do and what I think it helps a lot of people, I think it's worth the ninety nine bone skill.
All right, I'm going to give my before we get back to Jason. I'm gonna get my favorite season win totals that I am on this year. Gave these out on a numbers game a little while ago, but they're getting a season win totals are still right.
Around where they are, if not exactly.
And for those who don't know who know me as like a sports betting radio host or a tennis guy, baseball is where I cut my teeth five ten years ago. If you asked me what sports do I bet on? It was baseball and everything else was a distant second. Jason Mark and I all connected on baseball many years ago, and this podcast was primarily a baseball one and football back in the day, baseball was definitely the secondary sport. So last year when I gave out baseball season winters, I only gave out one on this and it was the Rangers over as you may have heard they won the World Series.
Sort over their season.
Wins, and I do my season wins same way every year, which is I get to the actual personnel in the talent.
As a third aspect, the first.
Couple are looking at their Pythagoram theorem and looking at their sequencing, and so this year doing that, and I'll explain what that is to those who don't know. Essentially, with Bill James Patagrea theorem, it's not what your teachers taught you in geometry class in tenth grade. It's not a square post P square equals C square. Won't bore you with his formula, but it's essentially runs produced, runs allowed, and he's got to try it in true formula that that translates to a win percentage expectancy. And therefore after one hundred you know, and when you translate that to AH one one hundred and sixty two game schedule, this is the games. These are the number of games you ought to have won, and these are the games you ought to have lost. The number based on your wins, based on your run scored and your runs prevented. And some teams will in essence overperform that. Some teams will underperform that either mildly or greatly on a yearly basis. So the Rangers the previous year, prior to last year, they had really underperformed both on Bill James Pythagrin theorem and then on sequencing, which is Bill James Pythagrian theorem. Lets you know what your record should have been based on runs produced and runs allowed. He doesn't tell you how those runs were produced and how those runs were allowed. We're sequencing gives you an insight into that. And what I mean by sequencing, I'll I'll give the simplest example I'll always give, which is, let's say you have seven events at a half inning, a home run, the three walks, and three strikeouts. But if the order of those are home run, walk, walk, walk, strikeout, strikeout, strikeout, you end up with one run. If it's walk, walk, walk, strikeout, strikeout, home runs, strikeout, you end up with four runs. And so the same events can produce an entirely different amount of runs. So some teams get the best of it on offense or the worst of it. And by the way, some teams get the best of it or worst of it on defense. So who then were the biggest overperformers and the biggest underperformers last year, and overperformers Baltimore, believe it or not as good as they were. They overperformed by about six games, Detroit by six games, Miami by ten, Pittsburgh by six. Underperformers Minnesota by seven, Kansas City by six, Texas by eight. Even in their World Series winning year, Chicago the Cubs that is by eight talking about in terms of the Bill James Pythagorean numbers. And then when it comes to sequencing, Baltimore, Miami, and Pittsburgh also overperforming by sequencing, Minnesota, Kansas City, and the Cubs also underperforming by sequencing as well. The Cubs end up being my second favorite season win total. The over on the Cubs I got him at eighty four and a half. And when you get beyond what I just said that instead of being an eighty three win ball club, they ought to have been a ninety one win ball club last year based on both pie fag and sequencing, they add, you know, the last half of last year, says Zuki Monster, second half of nine thirty eight ops. So if you can expect a full season of something close to that, maybe that's allowing for more, butit'll certainly project that over a full season to be a good cog in their will. Michael Bush more upside than anyone they've had at first base in some time. They missed the postseason by one game last year, but they got young talent Peter kormstrong Ben Brown. So I like the over and the Cubs over right now, I got an eighty four and a half. It is currently hold. Please want to get the exact number, we'll use DraftKings again. That number is your hold music. They don't put him in order. It's sill eighty four and a half. My favorite season win total, and I'll throw it to Jason is the San Diego Padres over. And I know people like, what are you talking about? They don't have Wan Soda, they don't have Blake Snell. That's true, but last year they underperformed much like the Cubs did, but by even more. They were an eighty two win team, but they should have been a ninety three win team by pithag ninety one. By sequencing, Yes you are losing Sodo's production. Yes you are losing Blake Snell's Smoke and Mirrors production where he parlayed into a cy Young but you still have Fernando Tatist Junior, who may not be the end of being the superstar we all thought he was, but he's still a great player in there in the middle. They have really improved on thin rotation with Michael King Randy Vasquez. The bullpen is where they had the biggest issues in twenty twenty three. They've made some smart moves there as well. I think the Padres have recognized that just producing or putting an all star team out there on a daily basis ain't the way to World Series titles necessarily, and so they've addressed some of their concerns.
So I love the Padres over.
I got them in eighty one and a half and they are currently again forgive the hold music.
Why aren't these in order? By the way, in sportsbooks, they're.
Actually at eighty three and a half now, so that's gone way up. I still like it, obviously not as much, and I would still play it at eighty three and a half because again, you're not asking them to win ninety games, You're asking them to just go barely over five hundred.
So I still like it at eighty three and a half.
Jason, I know you and I have sort of ratcheted back season win totals in recent years.
Do you have any I do not have anything I find particularly exciting on the season win totals, which doesn't mean I don't like yours, especially that Cubs won. I think everybody in that.
Central Division is pretty interesting this.
Year except the Cardinals.
I don't think Cardinals are going to win. You have another team you can at least make case for.
And you mentioned Saia Szuki in his strong second half.
That's that's actually something.
That that I'm very excited about as well. And you know, I don't think he's a guy that's necessarily going to win MVP. But I also did actually find a future on him to hit the most home runs at five hundred to one.
So another five hundred to one I.
Have there there you go.
I don't know.
I mean, maybe maybe those numbers, you know, maybe just takes a year to get acclimated to baseball.
I mean, he is, he is one of the better hitters from Japan that we've seen in a while while. So yeah, five hundred to one.
All I'm saying, Mark, I see you with a I'm trying to read your facial expression as I was going through my two overs.
Do you like those? Do you hate those?
I like the Cubs.
I guess my facial expressions were like a little bit perplexed because I was really down on the padres. But it looks like the addition of Cease and I think maybe King was they had like Johnny Bravo or what's I don't know what that guy Johnny Brido. I don't can't remember the guy they got from the Yankees. But King has kind of stepped in, and then Cease is they got ceased and that makes a huge difference. I mean, you want to talk about strikeout percentage, Dylan Cees thirty two point two percent strikeout percentage and then Michael King at thirty one point two. Muscrove is not too far behind at twenty eight point five. I think where they go down for me, Gil is you darvish. You look at his last one hundred and fifty played appearance strikeout percentage, and this is before this year. I don't know what he did in the first in the first first game against the Dodgers, I got to get that updated note. So going into the season, he was twenty one point eight percent strikeout right, which is low. And then they got a guy named Matt Waldron who is eighteen point four percent as.
As their their sp five.
I think where it breaks down for me is looking at their offensive ratings. And again this is last five hundred plate appearances, base runs adjusted for park. You can said, well they play in San Diego. Well I took that into account as well, and overall Gill number twenty six in baseball and then eighth in baseball for fielding. But put it all together, they're right about where their number is right now, where they've really gone up.
They've gone up.
The number for me was in the seventies and now it's at eighty three point five. So for me, it's a no play for the Padres. And but I would tail you on the on the cups there and he won twenty games, So you know, I don't know, like I've bet under on that. I think that these guys that pulled out, if maybe could you give you could you just bet Strider over?
But that's that's.
What I'm sure you could.
Yeah, your best Strider, because remember that was the thing Strider might have gotten twenty last year too.
Did he end up with Tony. He didn't, did he?
Yeah?
He did.
He ended up with twenty on the button. Right.
I almost bet Strider under.
Almost bet him under, but did not. Did not pull the trigger on it, No, not.
Yeah, but I thought about because he hasn't been injured, seriously injured in his career. I just think, like, you know, what happens to every picture at this point, sooner or later.
Like I've just been so wrong on.
Strider, I should probably just keep betting against him at this point.
So I'm right, Yeah, the human arm was not meant to do these things.
Uh.
And then finally, most home runs is set at fifty three and a half, most home runs by any player fifty three and a half, with the under slightly juiced at minus one thirty over over.
Oh I like you over on that one too, Yeah, yeah, I do.
You're thinking Alonzo, Jason, who are you thinking?
Mark?
You know, well, it's it's a big it's a big if. But if if if two guys can do it, it could be Olsen, it could be Judge. Those are my favorite guys. But Olsen's tough, you know, so I'd like Jason's play with Alonzo.
He's right up there.
You know, I did this adjusted home runs last five hundred plate appearances, and he's really close to Olson and Judge if you take out the park factors, Judge is number two thirty six point six and Alonzo's real right close to him at thirty four point one. So I kind of like Jason's play out there with Alonzo. You know, I think I'm going to make a play on this home run market with so Lair though he's he's up there at top five last five hundred plate appearances thirty two point nine home runs, and you say, well, he's going to San Francisco, that's not going to help him out. Well, he's coming from Miami, and the park factors for handedness right there are actually better by just a little bit in San Francisco. So I think Solaria might be if you wanted to catch some value, go with him. He was like twenty five to one.
Maybe.
Yeah, he's also a righty, right he's a right handed hitter, so that's a little better than being a left handed or you don't have the splash.
Omers factors for the sit we're kind of similar. So like he's up there towards the top on adjusted home runs, why not so what was your bet on him over the total? Or what did you bet on him?
Uh? So, lair in, I've got a group of four home I'll go give all my four home run winners.
Yes, you got to.
You gotta toutch this a little bit. You get plus one thirty six. But I got Judge Olsen, so Laire and Trout I'd liked, I'd like the Jason's uh you know, Trout was he was up there last year and he got hurt, so maybe the guy would be healthy this year. But if you group them and you bet them accordingly, you get plus one thirty six that group.
That's kind of how I like to play these futures.
Gil As, I remember that about you. You do a little four four player clusters. Yep, all right, what else are you holding from us?
Mark?
What else did you bet? What else do you like?
I'll give you.
I'll give you like my like like I'll give you one player from each of my group of five for all the awards. So if you guys, you guys want them all, you got to come over to base winner dot com. But I I'll give you Okay, So I'll give you like a like a long shot for n L m v P Martes and my group of five Kendl Marte from the d Backs. Oh Man, I'd like as a as a chalk guy for al MVP at like uh Soto at six to one, he's got you know, he's actually got really good base run creative numbers even with the with the park factor, with what park factors had jefted. He gets a little bit of bump because he played in San Diego. And then so al Cy Young, I'm gonna give you, Oh, I'm going to give you one of my favorite guys at one hundred to one. And it's not Zac Efron and Zach Eflin and Dak Epflin.
We used to just joke.
About him Gil right, So he used to he was like, this guy's a legitimate he's a thirty percent strikeout guy. Last hundred and fifty plate appearance, he really turned the corner. And uh, I like him. And then and then I'll give you my top guy. This is for Jason Nlsai young s rider plus four fifty. He's in my group of five.
Yeah, hey base winner.
Let me let let me ask you, same team, different pitcher, what do you think of Chris Sayle for for sires.
Yeh, I like that, Jason. I think that like sales.
Like his strikeout numbers were up last year's last one fifty.
I'm trying to pull it up here. You know.
It's funny because then when I'm filtering it down, I filtered it down to Boston, and he's not on Boston, He's on Atlanta. So it's really funny how how the mind works. But if you look at at his last one to fifty strikeout percentage, it's right at thirty percent, twenty nine point nine percent, good control at six point five percent. Definitely potential for him, and guy, wouldn't it be great if for me if Sale does does get close to that?
Jason, I gotta.
Tell you the guy, the guys that smoke the most in this casine.
I'm fifty to one. I'm a big sale fan.
Fifty to one. Yeah, like this just in Chris Sale Place or the Atlanta Braves. I'm doing this from the d in downtown Las Vegas. We don't have a studio. We're at a table here in the Mill casino, and the person who smells like a chimney always wants to get closest to us.
It is just I cannot stop calling.
All right, anything else mark that you've bet I love these.
No, I I gave out. I gave out quite a bit. Yeah, like I've gone a lot more though, but like go.
To baseball show me some love, guys, yeah me some show him some love at baswinter dot com at base Winter on Twitter. He'll do the bet Us Show Monday through Friday. Yes, every every weekday morning.
Yeah, I think they're giving me Wednesday off so that but for the first two weeks. For the first two weeks, I'm I'm going straight through, so you know, one of them. In all seriousness, it's a great opportunity for anybody who wants to ask a question going over that's a that's my favorite part of the show.
It's just the interaction with people.
Why do you take Why do you take Wednesdays off? Isn't that the most baseball games all day long? Why do you take that day off?
You know what? Because I asked for it. I don't even know. I think it's the least a request.
Last year, my favorite days to go are Tuesday and Friday, so like like Friday is like my favorite baseball day. It's it's like a Sunday Football Day for me, I don't know what it is. And now Apple TV's got the got the Friday Night Baseball and I think that the production is really really good. The quality of the video on Apple TV is so good and so it's exciting. Friday is my favorite day. Tuesday followed by on Tuesday. Tuesday is usually a full card too, Gill.
And that's why I go on your show. See that's strategic.
There you go, there you go, all right, never mind you call my show on Wednesdays. Whatever, Jason, I feel like we didn't get everything from you.
Did wait? Or did you give us all everything?
You bet? Or less.
Got a couple of things left.
I actually also bet the solaiir over home run profit.
I think you're on twenty seven and a half, so we're both on there. I bet that a couple of weeks ago. I'm a big fan of Solaire.
He gets a lot of line gets a lot of a bats batting clean up in that lineup, so nice, nice spot for him. Another long shot I bet today This one might might excite you a little, Big Bill.
It's also giants pet it's for Cy Young. I think there's a potential Cy Young contender.
Every year there's kind of a couple of random new guys who kind of throw away into the mix one way or the other, and at big odds at two hundred to one this year, I like Jordan Hicks, yes, the converted converted reliever from Saint Louis. It's very possible Saint Louis just had another guy that they were using incorrectly.
And you know, Randy Rose, Raina.
Doles Garcia come to mind as guys who just kind of were wasted in the in the Cardinals system, and maybe Hicks just needed to get a change of scenery and to move from a reliever to a starter. He's having a pretty dominant spring. I'm happy to take a shot there at two hundred to one. Actually have somebody going to Westgate right now to bet that for me, so hopefully that gets done before this goes on the air.
Jason used to send me to the Westgate for his two hundred and one shots before I was persona non groud over there. Hicks.
Yesterday five innings pitched ten K's, one walk, no hits, five innings of hitless ball with ten K's against one walk. I'llbeit against the athletics, So you know, take that for what it's worth. But Jordan Hicks seven consecutive strikeouts in that ball game. And I'll just say it again about the Giants, Logan Web Brandon, excuse me, Brandon still Blake Snell? Where to get Brandon from? Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks in far Han? We trust far Han Zaidi, the GM.
Of the Giant.
If someone said, I want to make one bet for the season long twenty twenty four baseball season, are you guys are have the audacity of doing this podcast only two days before the season starts. Yes, I know that we're two games in Korea. Mark alluded to them earlier, but of the real regular season two days away. I only I want to make one bet. It could be a futures bet. It could be a season win totals bet. It could be a to make or miss the playoffs. It could be an award, It could be anything we've just discussed. Mark, what bet would you tell them to make right now?
One I would say, I would say, take about half of your Vanguard account out, and not that I did this, but and then.
Just just lay lay the wood with the braves.
I don't see the Braves getting getting beat the team the best offense in the history of the game with a cy young contender, and then you know, uh, Jason like Sale Freed they got and the Bullpen's good.
Top three.
Depending on what metric you're using, I would I would definitely lay two forty with half your Vanguard account.
This is, by the way, this is not financial advice. This is just the advice of Mark Porcher base Wind. I thought you were going to say lay the wood on the Brewers on your long shot Brewers plays.
But no, you went with Braves. You went chalk here. Okay, Jason, same question. What would you say to.
Someone, I'd tell them to split it up between a couple different O'Neil Cruz because if he stays healthy, I think his his his futures and his home run tolls and everything are very mispriced. You know, a lot of his projections are based on him playing one hundred and twenty five or one hundred and thirty games as opposed to one hundred and forty or one hundred and fifty.
And I just really like him as a as a player.
Similar to how I bet the Tani MVP several years ago, I bet O'Neil Cruz to win the MVP last year and he got hurt. He came back the spring he looks, you know, the same, if not better. He's always going to be a high strikeout guy. But it's just sort of a matter of I was gonna say fact, but it's a matter of height in this In this case, he's six seven. He's just a unique skill set for that size.
Most guys that size.
Don't run that fast, they don't you know, they don't swing a bat the way he does.
He has like five of the ten.
Or five of the seven hardest balls, and spring training he can go down and hit ball out of out of the strike zone and turn around on them that other players just don't have.
The wingspan to get to.
We don't hear the word wingspan used very often in baseball. You know, you hear it in football, year at basketball. But O'Neil Cruz has this massive wing span. It allows him to expand this right because it allows him to get on pitches that you know you hear sort of it is not an exaggeration, but like, oh, he got under this fly ball and it just kept going and it was a home run. There's a couple of guys who could do that, but he's one of them, and it just has to do with his size and his wingspan. And I personally always look for the most unique, the most athletic players, and Otani fit that profile when he won his first MVP.
Cruz pits that profile.
Now and it's just sort of a thing where until he remains healthy and you know, shows the world what he could do, because he really hasn't done and done it on a stage yet, he's going to be mispriced. And when he does get restore, he does player I.
Think he could. We're going to see him more like a ten to one.
M VP as opposed to a sixty five to one, So I think there's some about there. I think there's value on his home run over it's still twenty seven.
He can easily get closer to forty.
At full help, and then the Pirates to win the division at fifteen to one, sixteen to one.
They're they're being aggressive this year. I see that that.
Jared Jones made the row the opening day roster starting pitching.
Sure, Paul, Paul, how do you say it's Skennis? Is SKENNI is right?
I thought it was I thought it was you, Skeens. I think Skeens, I think Steens.
Yeah.
Whatever. That's the thing. I don't get paid to these guys' names. I get paid to bet on him, so I never never know how their.
Names when I don't, you know, but Skiing, he's he's going to be a may It looked it's like the the Pirates are starting him in triple A and they plan to be aggressive with him.
So the Pirates are going for it this year. It seems I'm cool with that.
I think I encourage teams to go for it because the whole building for next year thing is always sort of stupid because because halftime, I mean never gets next year.
Yeah, and it's like, you know, it worked for the Astros and everybody thought they could do what the Astros did. But the Orioles they're good now, But I mean remember the Orioles were mired in this for six seven years. So it's like, I agree with you. I completely agree with you. Keep in mind, with season win totals, you also have to handicap folks. You know which teams are more likely to buy than they are to sell. At the trade deadline at the end of July, that's obviously a big calculus. I was going to finish with these two questions, but you guys might have answered it already, which is betting, yes, but also betting aside. Give me the club in the American League, in the National League that is off the radar from most people that you think could sneak into the postseason. And then the second part of that question is that it actually makes some noise in the postseason. I guess you answered it, Jason with the Pirates to get into the postseason. Mark, I won't allow the Brewers as the answer to the question. Give me another team that you think.
I would say the Giants. I think that's good how you're playing that. And then you know the other team that could be have really good upside is the Tigers because of their rotation. The rotation is that Scooball for me, and I hate to give another playoff, but I will like I like Scooball. I think he's uh, he's he's worth putting in that group of five, uh for your al Cy Young. But they they've got some upside, they got some high ceiling with their guys.
Who is the team?
All right?
Then, who is the team that could sneak into the postseason that actually then is built for postseason success.
I would say the Giants.
I don't know who you would say to that, Mark, we lost your we lost your mic, Mark All, we just lost your mic.
Are you back?
Oh we've lost Mark portrait. Jason, I'll go to you. Will he figures it back out?
Jason?
Can I answer a slightly different question, please, This isn't a team that's gonna kind of This isn't a team that's going.
To be a surprise to make the playoffs.
But looking at Baltimore, because you mentioned Baltimore went through like six seven years of a very painful rebuild where everybody laughed at them and was like, oh, look they.
Don't know what they're doing. They're not trying to win, but they really have been building something.
And if you follow their teams in the minor leagues the last couple of years and you see the guys coming through, it's been very impressive. I just wanted to point out the spring and this is one of the reasons that I'm going to be very sad that spring training is ending today. It's for all practical purposes, it ended a couple days ago, but The Orioles ended spring with a twenty three and six record, seven ninety three win percent, highest win total in their history, highest win total since twenty seventeen, the highest win percent since twenty six to sixty and spring training obviously, and you don't get a ring for winning spring training, but twenty three and six is a great way for that locker room to start the year.
This is a dominant team.
That is being built, and I think we're not We're not really realizing how good it is because a lot of these names, like obviously, you know, we know Gunner Henderson, we know Adlie Retchman, but they have a whole roster of dudes in Triple A that just come up and mash.
It's gonna be fun to watch.
It's a it's a great point.
No bets for you, though, on them to win the Division or the Pennant or the World Series.
Nothing from you.
You can bet the over.
My advice if you're going to bet a team like the Orioles or the Dodgers, bet an exact World Series matchup. Don't bet the Dodgers to beat the Orioles.
Just bet the to make the you know, to be in the World Series. Because there's there's there's two different markets.
There's the exist act that finish, and then there's there's the and not the who's going to be?
Who?
I just want booth? You get Braves fan. I think the Braves are gonna make it, Dodgers are gonna make it. Whoever you can narrow it down to Dodgers, Rays, Dodgers, Orioles options they are really confident in and you'll probably get a slightly.
Better pay out that way.
And if assuming all those teams get in the playoffs at least and.
Deal with your options at that point.
But if I was looking at the Orioles at net Orile was Oriolers.
Really hard to see anybody after that, But you.
Know, Orioles giants, if you wanted that or whatever, That's how I had play it.
I I agree with that. There's no point in trying to.
Be pirates would probably pay pretty good, Oh my god.
Would it? Uh?
I agree with you, there's no there's no point in trying to be a hero and getting all that way, having picked the two World Series teams and then losing it because you picked.
One team to beat the other and it didn't happen that way.
By the way that Orioles point you made about the spring training needs to be emphasized. I got a tweet about this yesterday on a Numbers game. Somebody was like, Hey, same thing. I know it's spring training, but here's the record, Like is that a thing? And I said, Tom, I go, Usually I wouldn't give a damn about the team's spring training record, like our whole lives are filled with teams that had good springs and then they didn't do anything in the regular season. But this is so off the charts that you do have to sit up and take notice. And I mentioned exactly what you just said. I brought you up, Jason, I said, and Jason sends me the text of like what the Orioles lineup does to bullpens. As soon as the bullpen gets it in spring training, they just destroy them. So yeah, they might be. They might be. You know I said earlier, they overperformed their pithag and their sequencing.
That doesn't mean they're not good.
They just might have overperformed it and they'll rise to occasion this year again if not better. Mark, where do we interrupted when your mic went out?
I was talking about trek Scuble I think, and how much. I like him.
He's actually my base winner number one. He's got the best base winner rating based on those metrics, last fifty one point fifty strikeout percentage, last three hundred walk percentage, and then last one fifty expected round ball rate, and he's got an expected ERA of one point seven eight best in baseball.
So you know, I think he's at nine to one in the market. That's a good price for this guy.
Scooble si on nine to one. I like it all right. Oh, last question, Mark, I did ask you this. I left it hanging.
Team that's built for postseason success that most people don't think we'll get in the playoffs.
Could be who.
They're built for postseason success, but they won't get in the playoffs.
I don't know if that. That's a tough question. I don't I can't work.
He could get it or could get into the playoffs and are built for postseason success.
I think the Razor. I think that's the team that everybody's sleeping on.
I mean, they've got the best bullpen, that's starting pitching, the hitting serviceable.
You like that.
That to me is a uh that if there's a surprise, that's a surprise.
All right, boys, I think we've I think we've done enough here and again. If you want more of Mark stuff, go to basewinter dot com. The great Mark Borchard cousin of Joe Borchard at base Winner.
What's Joe Borchard doing these days?
Mark?
Former ball play?
He lives here? He actually lives in Phoenix here.
He's he's like a he's like a high up at one of the like a produce company.
Oh nice, So yeah, yeah, he's he's a Stanford guy, so like you would expect that.
He has a brain. That's right.
Uh, Mark Borchard again from a undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. Uh bet us the name of his show that he's doing, which he used to do with Jason Wangarden. Jason, there is no finer mind than you and Mark. And we'll throw Paul Sporer into that group as well. Joe Peita when he was doing baseball too, but he has since retired. Although Joe Peter, by the way, Uh, he told me he said he was back in baby he made one bet in Korea. He went one to oher on the padres and then he said he thinks what did he tell me? I on, let me give a Joe Pete. Bet is Joe Pete rising from the dead to make a baseball play.
I think he was bored. What did he say?
I think I think you can accuse him of being a homer on this once I get through here.
It is he has bet dude to do.
To do it, he got the padres in that game, but what if he has a season long I think he says he likes the Phillies. I don't want to misquote him though, and now I can't find it, but I think he's high on the fah yes he is.
Hold on what is it?
Phillies over eighty nine and a half? Didn't say they'd beat them braves, Phillies over eighty nine aine, I.
Think play gil.
I have them over there there total like significantly, And that's why I think that that exact is a I mean it's like plus one point forty I've got it like happening. I don't know, eighty ninety percent something like that. Okay, that's that's a favorite of mine.
So yeah, I like it.
And Jason at Spreadipedia still coming on a numbers game. We love having you twice a week on a numbers game. The only guy that comes on the show twice a week. Is my only guess that I'm allowed to come on twice a week. Not even you, Mark, even if you beg no, I would if you let me, if you wanted to, I would. But Jason twice a week on a numbers game. Where else can people find you anywhere else, Jason? Or should they just go to spread Apedia?
That's about it. I'll be on Beyond Vison. I'm write in a little bit visa.
Just plug an out article each week, talk about futures, see where the market's at, and we'll hopefully keep track of everything this year and then have a have a nice winning year. And yeah, Beyond be on your show. That's that's probably where you're gonna find me.
I love it. Let's do it.
Jason Winegarden and Mark Borcherd the best in the business. Thank you, guys. Good luck to all of you with all of your baseball bets both opening day and season longs. Can't wait for the season to start.