Gill Alexander, Todd Wishnev (VSiN Contributor), Will Hill (VSiN Contributor), and Brad Feinberg (NBC Sports Philadelphia/Pro Betting Analyst) break down all of the week 18 NFL betting action! The quartet gives you their best bets of the week, best teaser options, which big favorite is most likely to lose outright, and the game they want no part of.
Thursday morning, January fourth, twenty twenty four. It is the Beating the Book Podcast Week number eighteen in the National Football League, the squirreliest of all weeks. Some may say that by the way, I said the word squirrely so much this week that on my phone produced an Angie Harmon video where she's like applying mascara to her face or eyeliner or whatever the hell women do in the bathroom when they're there and there's a squirrel running all over her.
She has a pet squirrel.
So watch what you say, boys and girls, when you talk about anything into your phone. It is the squirreliest week because we have a lot of backup quarterbacks playing. We all have a lot of teams that have something to play for, a lot of teams that have nothing to play for. How does that factor into your handicapping? As always, I welcome the pillars of the show from his Mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Star of the Showtime docuseries Action Todd, wishnep ladies and gentlemen.
How you doing, Toddy? Hi, Gil Todd? Did you enjoy spending two weeks with me watching Bowl games? Or me with you?
Oh? Yeah, I enjoyed the endless keister shots from the bowl game situations like you know the Michigan and now, oh how about Oklahoma. Why don't you just have Oklahoma up by eleven, driving to go up either fourteen or eighteen against Arizona dominating the football game, and somehow the ballpulps into the Arizona guys andrew drunk ninety eight yards. It's just disgusting. What happened to me in Bowl in Bowl season, an absolute disaster. The only good point is the fact that I went on a fifth forty six and nineteen college basketball run at the same time. So yes, I didn't get too I didn't get too you know, obliterated because I was winning all my college basketball but the college and you were there to witness the first of all. Let us just say I have now experienced the Nevada sportsbook apps. You know, I hadn't seen them for nine months. They're still horrendous. Hilly always complains about Caesars. Caesar's regular like in Pennsylvania is fifty times better than Caesar's in Las Vegas. It is a debacle. There's in at least five bets that I was sitting with Gil that I didn't get and ended up getting the wrong team later because I didn't get the bet I really wanted because of their horrible technology. So I'm so glad other than having a good time with you and eating more food than I should possibly ever eat, so I will be dead probably by the end of the season. Other than that, you know, it was.
Just brutal And that was just the intro for Todd. But it's all true everything he said. Will Hill joins us as well at not the Will Hill on Twitter. Todd is that t wish nev will not only the star of this megapot, but also if Chris Flika is bear, what is it a best hold on Bear?
What is it called the bear bets Pod? The bear Bets.
Pod still called the bear Bets Pod.
Yes, I guess somehow I got the word best in there. I'm sorry Bear Bets Pod College and Pro Football versions Thursday and Friday.
Hey doing, Willie, I'm good.
I'm dreading when Todd reads the records hopefully left him upstairs. There's a bad week for me last week. But I love Week eighteen. I love all the moving parts, I love the scenarios. I love just the scoreboard. Watching all these games matter the different snares. I think there's there's betible games out there too, because I you know, we'll get into it. But I do think they overinflate this idea of motivation to my favorite week of the year.
I love it me too. I'm right there with you, sadly for you. Todd is upstairs in the attic, so he does have the records, so sorry, sorry about that.
Uh.
And a first time mega podcast. We haven't had a first time megapodcast this year, have we?
Oh?
Yeah?
Kelly Kelly last week was first time he comes to us from NBC Sports Philly. You can find him on a Twitter and I'll get this exactly right at Brad's best bets Brad Finberg, everybody, Hey doing Brad, thanks for being.
Here, outstanding Gil. I guess I told you the off air.
One of my one of my favorite people in the industry, and such an honor to be on your show.
Thank you Brad every week.
Love you guys, and I'm really excited to be on. Thank you so much for having.
Me, very kind of you. Thank you for the kind words.
I know you know, mister Wishev, you haven't met Will Will, Brad Brad Will.
Gentlemen, we're gonna we're gonna have to offset those compliments throughout the show.
But this we are oh for me?
Okay, yeah, okay. So before we get into our best bet for week eighteen, Todd Court, stenographer of the show with the records, saym slow and Sam lovingly.
Wait goal quick?
Well yeah, go ahead, Well he said, Sam.
Quick, go just go quick with Okay. So Gilly continues his epic season, you know of no, you know, unbelievable season. We just cannot believe how well this guy's doing. I'm knowing the guy ourselves. He goes to and one again to go to thirty four sixteen in one. Now that is a gaudy number. Now, granted it is a really small sample size. Let's all remember that. Let's not give him too much credit. But let's be honest, thirty four to sixteen in one is just outstanding. And while I don't like giving Gill compliments, that really is just outstanding season by Gilly. Thirty four to sixteen and one. No one's going to catch him. Just unbelievable, by the way, folks, that's against you know, widely available Thursday lines that's no like peasik trick lines on Monday and like that. It's this real line. This is not anyigan, you know. I just want you to get your full due because when when when it's time to dump on you were coming hard. So Gilly thirty four to sixteen and one, outstanding job Willy and oho and three last week. He still stays at twenty six and twenty five. Me and Will both were fooled by that Falcons nonsense. But I didn't go with the falcons. I went with the falcons over but I almost did that too, Will, So whatever. Anyways, he's twenty six and twenty five. I went two and one to go to twenty five, twenty three and three barely hanging in there, and the guest seat goes to twenty six twenty two and three. So it's a one game ahead of me now in the more important category, because who would who were three games right the teaser category. Gill is at ten and seven, Will is it twelve and five, Todd is at twelve and five, and the guest spot is it twelve and five, So let's be honest. I mean these teaser numbers are very awesome too, so had you just been playing, you know, all this stuff all year. You'd you'd, you know, you'd be happy that you'd be listening to the megapod best.
The best part of that whole thing was an I'll paraphrase, not that bullshit.
Feesick is betting. That's the best part of that whole thing. We love you, Stevie.
Okay, So, by the way, you think thirty four to sixteen and one is good, And let me just say this again because I was talking about this on the show this morning. You know that's three games deep, thirty four to sixteen and one. Crack was on and we were talking about because Crack has two entries and circum millions. He's in one hundred and first place in one hundred and eighty seventh going into the final week top one hundred cash.
Randy McKay is doing well.
Fezik is tenth place, I think heading into the final week top ten make big money.
And I and I sort of.
We brought up the question of how is it that the Phasiks of the world, and the Randy McKays, and even the Cracks, the Las Vegas Crises of the world, how is it that they do so well on these contests so often, because when I extend my thirty four to sixteen to one to five games, which is what you do in the circum millions, I can't even get to sixty percent. And so just for those who are new to betting or new ish, the difference is is that my thirty four to sixteen to one and my circum millions record is I'm handicapping football games like a normal schmuck does. What those guys are doing is is they're waiting till as far deep into the deadline at four pm on Pacific time on Saturdays. They're getting as perfect information as possible injury wise, and they're getting more importantly, as perfect information as they can lines wise. And so what they're doing is they're getting the best of it on a consistent basis. Now, it should be noted that that doesn't work every year, but this year it worked in spades. And so someone like Crack, who admittedly doesn't know players at all, just handicaps based on market handicapping is right there on the cusp of cashing.
And then the biggest.
Factor beyond that is and Todd, I know you'll jump on this and resonate with this.
It's just pure luck, like you just have to.
Run good with the balls that bounce a certain way and this stuff. Am I probably a little fortunate that the balls bounced my way on the thirty four to sixteen and one, and a little unfortunate that they didn't when I extended to a fourth and fifth game. Probably, But that's part of the deal too. And so just as long as you accept that part of NFL handicapping preflop is that way, you know, I think you'll just be better off mentally with the whole thing, because I do think some people, you know, we talk about this in Survivor too, some people get really enamored with themselves, right, They're like, Oh, I'm so awesome at this.
I'm just so great. It's fleeting, man, It's fleeting.
And you talk about small sample size, todd even like millions, right, like Las Vegas, Chris who was like you know what, James Selenas who finished first one year and third the next in Westgates. It's still a small sample size, right, two years of eighty games, eighty five games or whatever it is. So anyway, contest are interesting, by the way, if you think thirty four to sixteen and one is good.
Brad. What are you in the NBA this year? What are you up?
I am up over This is Benning Gill, not to you know my cap, but betting one unit per game. I'm up over eighty units in the NBA. I specialize in prop up over eighty units in the NBA, primarily props one unit per game, primarily. Almost ninety eight percent of my stuff is props, and you know it's I'll be a full transparency. I had a show called Given Props in the NFL UH for two years, and I won about seventy percent of my props in the NFL for a couple of years in a row.
This year, Gill and.
The NFL prop and my on my site, I'm down a few units, I'll be. I mean, it's been a hard prop year for me in the NFL, which has been shocking. I've never not done great in the NFL props. This year it's been very choppy for me. But in the NBA, which I've always been great at, Baseball has always been great at, It's still been terrific. But the NFL, and I've to other fellow pros, but I'm not sure how much you do props or how much you follow that Todd same with to you will, I'm curious with what you guys. For people I know who do this for a living, they've had a much tougher time this year with the NFL props than they've ever had before, because again I've usually right near sixty five to seventy percent in the NFL have been nowhere near that this year, But in the NBA has just been like, you know, you can eat a fee for me of just you know, win win win win.
Win, Will you dabble?
Yeah?
And we were talking off there about what uh what an opportunity that was?
I missed it two with the Bridges? Was it a week ago?
Two weeks ago?
With the same game parlays and man, you just hey, you pay attention. And the more these books stuff, the more product is out there, the more markets they have, the just they can't be perfect with everything.
They're going to miss some things sometimes.
Is a few years ago to Draymond green h situation, And I'm sure Brad can speak to this.
Man.
You just it's hard to make a perfect line for everything when you're putting up so much stuff.
Yeah, and the.
More stuff they put out, guys, that's that's the advan. It's like if they put out, but they're putting out you guys see it. They're putting out for every single game, a point, assist points and rebounds, assistants, steals, block turnovers, and eventually when you see a guy that minutes maybe can just be a little bit different than what the market is initially saying that you get an injury update or something like that. You just you it's it's impossible almost tolign every single one of these, right, If they're putting out five hundred bitts a day, I'm looking to find five out of the five hundred that are off right, and I'm trying to go, you know, at least three and two, you know, or you know, hopefully a little beirden three and two on those five props. And you know, but it is out there. But I spend my entire life being a slave to this. But I love it, so it makes it easy. Good for you, man, I may you do it all the time.
May you continue to run hot.
And I do think there's a good point in there too, which is right, not everything is going to be the same from year to year.
Where you know, I was just hearing what was it?
Brad Powers is a great college football better had a terrible year in college football. I had a terrible year in tennis. On what was happening in previous years.
It happens. It's never going to be static. From year to year. Things change.
I like to say, Gil, I can bleed too.
Sometimes when you're running well, you think you're inherent and impervious to it.
But everyone can believe. I don't care who you are, there's always gonna be tough times.
But that's what makes I always say what makes a good sports bet, it's not just the knowledge, but it's the discipline, not chasing when things aren't going your way, staying and even course and not getting Like Todd is an expert in his college basketball. You know he he has these things down though with science, yes, and he has he has math behind them. He's brilliant with it and he calculates it like like a savant. But he's he'll tell you he's had times where it doesn't go his way, but over the long run he'll get those you know, those streaks that because he's probably at least fifty five percent in all these games. So even if the forty five are going a way against them. You just have to be able to stick it out and they have to have that that memory like it's going to turn around. And you can't always think you're gonna win every single day.
You're gonna have losing days.
Doctor Bob says it best.
He says, your ability to overcome negative variants is your best indicator of how good of a of a long term better you're going to be. And I will say this about Todd, Yes he is. I will talk about him as if he's not here. He is as susceptible to those short term you know, stretches as anybody is. But because of the mechanical nature of what Todd does, I would argue what he does in college basketball is about as solid of a wager and as solid as a method as you can get to minimize those over the course of time. Because it's a lot less subject it's a lot less subjective.
I would say this.
Todd guy right now is watching Sacred Heart against Saint Francis, and at sixty nine fifty eight, and if you're on my service, you have over one forty two. I hope you tube clowns have it over one forty two, which looks like a very good today. So anyway, I just want to talk real quick about like you were saying, things can go against you. You know, I thought I had a beautiful port. This is what happened to me in college ball. But I'll just give you the NFL cit even though I had a good NFL week. The NFL football game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Detroit Lions, I had two go to overtime plus five hundred, and at that point it was seventeen thirteen, and I said, I might as well take under thirty four and a half because if the Cowboys come down and kick a field goal, it's twenty to thirteen. That's thirty three and I will win my under bet. And if it doesn't happen and Lions come down and get the touchdown, I go to overtime. I get plus five hundred. So I've got a perfect scenario set up so that I might as well take the under. So I did, And now we'll talk about dumbos, mister McCarthy on. I said this to Gil probably like one hundred times. How can you not run the clock down and throw an incomplete pass? I just don't understand it at any level. But you know, Gil said, oh he did it three weeks ago.
I don't care.
What do you do me?
I don't understand at any level of football. I watched Louisiana Monroe versus Louisiana Tusville, and they know to do this. How can Mike McCarthy not know to take the clock down? Okay, whatever, he doesn't take the clock down, and then the Lions of course come down, get a touchdown, decide to go for two to screw my overtime bet, and then get a penalty and decide to go for two again from the seven, Dan Campbell, what are you doing? Okay?
I gotta ask you guys a question.
I really do, because I'm of the belief if we had someone like one of US four on an NFL sideline, and I would bet my house on this, we would save them at least a half game a year in terms of stupidity plays.
Just Dan Campbell, get it's not a macho thing.
When you're at the seven yard line, you're nowhere near fifty percent of score.
I mean, no, Brad Brad. We decided Brad Brad, we decided where he goes to win the game, right, here.
We're not gonna win the game.
That's what we're doing. Brad, I don't care.
You see the Washington coat when Washington when they didn't take a knee hand on the Bible. I said this before the guy got injured. I said it before, So I don't want anyone on Brad'll you're full of bs, I go, I said it to my to my people. I was watching you with I'm like, he's risking a turnover, he's risking an injury, and he's risking a fumble. I go, he what do you mean you're asking an injury? And I literally go, guys get hurt all the time of place the clock's gonna stop. And it happened the next place, Like, how did you know? It's not that I knew, but you're just giving a chance. It's like as opposed to having one hundred percent chance. I mean, you're giving them a six percent chance just because you're an idiot.
I can't it's I would even say that we've gotten to the point where I don't think any of these were that original. Like I do think in every one of these cases, right like when Mike McCarthy, when Dak Prescott threw that pass and went incomplete, giving the Lions, you know, thirty extra seconds. It's just unconscionable and it doesn't take it. You know it in the moment, and I did. I did say that to Todd. By the way, Louisianna took the smells very live Todd every week. But I did say in the moment with to Todd. He did it against Seattle when Seattle was up thirty eight to thirty five, four or five weeks ago, the same thing, one forty six left on the clock.
They threw an incomplete pass. They could have got it down to a minute.
They got bailed out by their defense and they won by six after the field goal because they stopped Geno and crew.
But he did it.
Then, the Dan Campbell thing from the seven yard line, I get it. You don't want to play overtime. You want to end it there, and everybody knew he was going to try to go over too, but yeah, from the seven, Like, how do you not know that that's when you should just probably just kick the damn extra point because it's just it's a win probability thing. It's a it's a two point version probability thing. It was ridiculous that everybody knew it in the moment. And then the Dbor thing, the Caitlindor thing with Washington.
Let me just say, you'll almost by that he wouldn't be here today.
I wouldn't be here today.
I had so much Washington, I had so much in game money on Washington that I just thought I was coasting in to win. And then when he you know, the thing about running into the line like this is Mario Cristobal territory.
Like yeah, saying dude, what are you doing?
And it's so obvious to the viewer, it's so absolutely ridiculous. But I will say this the injury, which again a lot of people can say, well, Debor shouldn't have been put them in that situation to get the injury. He shouldn't have. But the fact they got to do something about that rule. How how do you gift the team that's behind right that rule? The spirit of that rule is, oh, you can't fake an injury when you're behind, so they run off clock, but when you're ahead. That gave that was done that game, Texas would have had twelve seconds left on the clock instead they had fifty or after the punt and the catch interference.
It was thirty three seconds.
More was forty five seconds after the reception, after the catch on the punt at their own thirty. That's the difference between going to a national championship and not. And of course we know that they just they held on for dear life. They got to do something about that rule. That doesn't make any sense to me that that game clock stops right there.
Well, do you remember, I'm shame. I used to my thing in life. I love to find inefficiencies.
It used to be and I remember, do you remember the Super Bowl between the Falcons and the and the Patriots. It used to be like, and again, you're gonna maybe laugh at me and call me and make fun of me. But you know, the rule used to be, if you've took at the lay of game, the clock would just keep running.
And you took another one, it would keep running. I said, when they're up twenty eight three.
They should just take the ball, run down the clock until there was five.
Minutes to go.
Everyone would make fun of them and hate them, but I go, they'd win the game. They'd have the ball at the quarter yard line and you could take off an entire quarter and in ten minutes of the fourth quarter.
I just literally they did change that rule. But the other thing is.
Gill and guys, that will isn't when you see at the when there's like the ball like the fifteen yard line, there's like twelve seconds left in the half or nine seconds left, they should just grab the guys put them in a bear hug because they're gonna throw the ball on the interine. You they're gonna call it defensive holding panel like then they're gonna kick.
The field goal the next play.
Yeah, guys, Still the coaches let them want to play and put them in a position.
These are the things that just I can't. I can't stand it. Sports better.
They can't do that because then I can't get screwed, and we need to screw me on my bed.
But any time that worked, the point of all this is we we've talked about all this stuff so many times on this podcast and on the radio show, and it just these NFL and these college coaches. The NFL coaches are like mensa compared to the college coaches. They're so locked in to their ex's and o's that they just don't have broader context. And I just wonder, like if we were coaches like them, would we be as stupid? Maybe maybe we would be. I don't know, because we we don't. Todd said it before. We just watched so many more games than they do. In the end, right, they're like so focused in on their on their games.
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All right, we don't have a Thursday night football game, so we go straight to the best bets we were going to do.
We don't have to talk about endgame. I just wanted to talk real quick. Was with one real quick one go, and that is the Saints against the Bucks had seventeen points at halftime, with seventeen nothing this the third quarter was under seven and a half. You have to make that bet under seven and a half in that situation an NFL game, one team's winning, no one's doing anything on offense, and they're getting the ball to start the third quarter. It's an absolute must. It was about an easiest pie win, So it's just something to keep in mind for next year. Guys. In the third quarter, one team has a big lead. The other team is not moving the ball at all. They're getting the ball to start these under seven and a halfs, you have to be playing them.
All right.
Let me just say, as a backdrop to this week, Lamarge Jackson's gonna sit for the Ravens. Ravens already clinched the number one seed in the AFC North title. They have nothing to play for. Tyler Huntly, we'll start against the Steelers on Saturday. Matt Stafford is gonna sit for the Rams. Carson Wentz is gonna play. A bunch of Rams are not playing in this game. The Rams can only be the sixth or the seventh seed in the NFC, so they don't really care where they end up. Just as long as Carson Wentz knows that Pukinakua needs four catches in thirty yards to break both rookie records receptions of receiving yards, I'm cool. In that same game, brock Perty is sitting Sam Donald, who's playing for the Niners. So enjoy that Rams Niners game. Wentz versus Donald, Joe Flacco, With the Browns locked into the number five seed in the AFC, he's gonna sit. Some people have big numbers on him for Comeback Player.
Of the Year.
Jeff Driscoll is gonna start for the Browns, which would mean that this will be the fifth starting quarterback for the twenty twenty three Browns. They will become only the second team in the history of the NFL to make the postseason with five starting quarterbacks. The other one Todd Any Idea, the nineteen h eighty four Chicago Bears. The same the only team that came into RFK Stadium in Washington beat the Redskins in a postseason game in RFK. Steve Fuller started that playoff game in lieu of Jim McMahon and then Patrick Mahomes. With the Chiefs locked into the number three position in the AFC, he's gonna sit in the Chiefs game. Blaine Gabbart is going to start for the Chiefs, all right, and by the way, other ones too. Nick Mullins is going to get the start again as Kevin O'Connell continues to mush up that quarterback situation in Minnesota. Minnesota can still get into the playoffs. We'll get into that Sam Howell's gonna start for the Commanders, so we don't get the Jacoby Brissett experience after all against the Cowboys. Brad your number one pick, sir, is.
You know Gil? What's funny?
It's closer.
I'm gonna actually go in the game that you just talked about. I'm actually gonna take San Francisco. No, this opened it lower, but it's still a right now. Markets at four, but he wasnt two and a half.
But I still like Samsour. I'm gonna tell you why.
I've read a lot about this Bill Shanahan has talked about, extensibly in the past, how his dad got screwed with people resting guys, and he talked about Peyton Manning, his experiences with Peyton Manning, and how Peton Manning talked about how when the Colts wrested players it really hurt them. Now was I made this bet before they announced that Purdy was going to sit. I thought I'd get a one half of Purdy. But I've read enough from Shanahan to think that he is going to play some.
Of the starters.
I know there's no McCaffrey, I know there's no Perdy, but I think they're going to play more than the Rams. I don't have to tell you three. The Rams with McVeigh in the preseason is like I don't even know. I mean, it's like having putting a pizza in front of me and you're the pizza and you're like, that's not going to be good, right, you know. It's just he's played so not caring in these preseason games. Now, I know the pukinakua thing, Gil you mentioned, Okay, maybe he's going to get his a little bit. But I just think that this is Darnold's crazy as it seems. I think is more competent at this point than when whence I think he is is beyond shot.
And I just think that what I've.
Seen in the past from this Rams team in meaningless game skill, and this is you may say Detroit versus Dallas is meaningful. Maybe analytically it could be, but I don't. My guess is I don't think it's gonna beat a mcveain company. I like, Sam just going to win this game by at least a touchdown.
San Francisco minus four Todd, that's the consensus.
I believe san.
Francisco minus four for Brad Feinberg is his number one pick. There God, God wish Nev.
My first pick is going to be in the same vein as what Brad was talking about. What do you guys have for the Pittsburg Stillers against the Baltimore.
Ravens minus four consensus?
Okay, I'm gonna take the Baltimore Ravens plus the four. Uh. Here's why I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna tell you based on a story insert. Here's the deal. This hardball guy. I don't know if you ever watched him in the preseason. The guy doesn't lose. The guy just says I refuse to lose ball games. And you know you don't want to play him in the preseason now, all the more so in the game that's supposed to be what we call meaning this. Now, why would it be meaning this? First of all, the stores aren't good. I don't want to hear anymore. I know, I know they made me look ridiculous last week when Mason moved off, played well and they ran the ball right down Seattle. This is a different animal you're going down, Aaron Baltimore. We're not going to be able to do much against that team. And now we got Tyler Huntley. Tyler Huntley's not that bad. I've seen him a million times win ball games. You're giving me four points with the better team and a coach that wants to win the football game. Tallman already won his thing. Oh yeah, he's never had a losing season. But bye bye, bye Baye whatever. Give me the Ravens plus four against my insers.
Wait, what was that thing you said about Tomlin? I've never heard that before. Seventeen years in a row without a losing season.
Wow, you know what I said? I said, Babe, Brah Brah.
Willie was she number one?
It's never good when the three of us are on the same thing. Like Gil, you're going to be on it too, Braves plus four. It is really same scenario as twenty nineteen. It didn't mean anything for Baltimore. They had a one seed locked up where they had a by locked up. It was the one seed they played Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh still had a shot at the playoffs. It's funny I thought they might play Lamar because they went into the playoffs that year having taken three weeks off. And that's what Lamar is going to have here. I thought maybe they play Lamar because they lost in the first round that year to Tennessee. But regardless, if Baltimore was playing, everybody healthy motivated.
This line is what nine to ten.
Now you're going to swing it fourteen points because of okay Lamar, But again, Huntley's an elite backup, maybe the best backup in the league. I just I think this is too much of an overaction into a total of thirty five. And these games are always field goal games, twenty to seventeen, seventeen to fourteen. I think when you're home, too, I think it's there's less of a tendency to just die and roll over. The home crowd helps you when there's nothing to really play for. And look, Huntley's got something to play for. Huntley's got a contract to play for. You know, he's going to be sought after, I think by one of these teams one of these years. But with the quarterback Dearth in the NFL. So give me the Ravens here plus the four points.
Excellent use of Dearth as well, will nicely done. That's my number one pick too. I couldn't agree more on guessing lines on Monday. That was the first game up on the board because it was the first game on Saturday, and it was the first game where I guessed it completely wrong. And on week eighteen guessing lines, You're gonna have some ridiculous guesses on these, and I'm with you. The only thing I'll add is, you know what's doctor Bob callte doctor Bob again for the second time on the show where he said, you know, if you're in a must win situation, you must not be that good.
So just keep that in mind.
And while we don't usually talk about trends here, it is interesting Steve MacKinnon, who works at Veisen, did come up with this one since twenty eleven underdogs in games where teams are resting starters, and that must have been difficult for him to actually cull this together because you got to really do some digging twenty two to nine against the spread seventy one percent. With everything you guys are saying, which is is Tyler Huntley and the Ravens at home, you really think they should be more than a three point dog?
In what world?
I don't even if you don't have anything to play for. And this is the biggest thing, just as a as a macro thing, again for newer betters. If it were as easy as just picking the team that needs to win versus a team that doesn't need to we'd all be rich. This would be the easiest racket of the world. Some of these aren't gonna get home, and this is the one that leaps off the page. I'm with you, Baltimore plus four is my first pick. I liked four things on Guessing lines on on Monday, so I'm gonna have to cull to which I like, which three I like the best. I'm gonna say for number two because the Bears are still at three, right, not three and a half?
Is that right?
Three?
Three?
All right?
So I'll leave that as my fourth because that'll be one of my contest picks. Plus three because I think the Bears plus three against the Packers is good. But are the Raiders at minus two and a half?
Still Raiders? I see two and a half.
Yeah, yeah, give me the Raiders minus two and a half against the Broncos. What are we seeing? Consensus on this? Raiders?
I see, I see just as many two and a half. So with extra juice, though, what are you giving me.
Todd, We'll give you the Raiders two and a half.
I'm taking the Raiders. I got it at two and a half on Monday too. I just think for me, this is also one where it's like it's the Antonio Pierce game, if Davante Adams coming out saying he wants Piers to be the coach. I think the Raiders are motivated here in a way. By the way, this game means nothing to the Raiders of the Broncos, but could mean something to the Jaguars. If the Jaguars lose their game, not only do they not win the AFC South, but they could still get into the playoffs as a number seven seed. But part of that is the Broncos losing this just trust me on the tiebreaker here. So this does matter, and it might matter in terms of a playoff implication to another team, But I like the Raiders here. I've always felt the Jaguars or an overrated outfit. That game again against the Chargers was like watching paint dry last week. There's nothing about the Broncos that I think is any good, and I think the Raiders are playing tough to the end. Less than three I guess this line at four on Monday, I couldn't believe that it was only two and a half. I got the Raiders here minus two and a half is my second pick, Willie.
Before I get to my pick, why does that Broncos Raiders game matter? I was going over all these scenarios. I saw it doesn't matter. How does that factor as it strength of scheduled effects with somebody else?
Yeah, well something about the Jags like I would have to dig into it.
But if they no, it's not that important.
If the Jags lose, I'll tell you the Jags playoff scenario. So if the Jags win, they win the AFC South, they're the They're the number four seed. If they lose, the winner of the Houston Indianapolis games becomes the winner of the AFC South. But Jacksonville could still get into the postseason with a loss. They'd be the number seven seed. If the Ravens beat the Steelers and the Raiders beat the Broncos, so they need the Broncos to clear in other words, and so a quick glance, quick glance of the standings tells me that that.
Would probably be. I don't think they played each other, did they.
Not that I remember?
No, Yeah, you know what it would be.
I think they're I don't want to speculate, okay, but that's what they need to have happened.
I will go with the Giants. Am I getting five with the Giants?
For four and a half, Giants looked like five Giants.
I will take the five.
Yeah.
For all the issues Philly has on the on the field defense, who knows if Hurts is healthy. They've been a mess all their underlying stats. When they were ten and one and we were saying they're overrated, that has.
Come home to roost.
I don't know how much they care because this is the same situation as last year. Giants were playing the Eagles, Washington was playing Dallas, and remember it was Dallas who needed the upset and they came out flat against Washington. They needed the Giants to upset Philly, and they're like, you know what, that's not gonna happen. They just kind of went through the motions. Remember that was Hal's first game. I think a similar situation here where Philly probably looks at the scoreboard middle game and sees Dallas is up, you know, maybe seventeen to three or fourteen nothings.
What are we doing here, Let's pull guys. We're not gonna run hurts. I just I think they use this as maybe a mini Biden, maybe get.
Themselves back on track. There's all sorts of issues with Philly. The Giants have played hard. Giants could have beat the Rams last week. The Giants played Philly pretty tough on Christmas. I mean that was an eight point game, with the Giants throwing the ball into the end zone on.
The last play. So the fives here a lot.
I don't know how much either teams. I don't know how much Philly is gonna be into this game. I'll take the five year with the New York Football Giants.
Yeah, Eagles and Giants.
Excuse me, Eagles and Cowboys playing conk currently in the afternoon window two games on Saturday, the Steelers Ravens and the Texans Colts. Then in the early window on Sunday, six games, and then those two games part of the six game or excuse me. There's seven games in the So there's more games in the late window this week than there are early games.
That's odd. How about that seven late games, six early games.
Such a fun day.
I love eighteen.
That's it's great.
Wisht.
By the way, I agree with well that that Eagles team. That was my masterpiece bet of the weekend. When the Eagles were up fifteen points and the Arizona Cardinals were getting it was twenty one six Eagles that the Cardinals were getting three in the second half. So I took the Cardinals plus eighteen in a game they dominated the first half and it wasn't even close, obviously, but that was that was my master The Eagles are just taking on oil. Me and Gilly were talking about this the whole time. We were saying that the Eagles are taken on oil and the Chiefs are taken on oil. Some of these teams are just absolutely falling apart down the stretch of oil.
Peace safe before it, as is your sacred heart bet before you know I just won in a lot night. Before you get into your pick that, just let me ask you guys that because that's an interesting point as we're one week away from the playoffs.
Obviously, is what is the team in each conference that you have the least confidence in?
Is it?
Is it those two teams?
I mean, I can't stand the Chiefs. I think the Chiefs are Mahomes goes back to pass, he looks around. There's nobody open, he stands there, he pats the ball, he thinks about it, think about taking the Mahomes rushing props, because I did it in game with what I was sitting next to Gilly. I said, Gilly, he has no one to throw for, he's gonna have to run the ball. And it's exactly what's happening because there's no one open. And by the way, even when there is someone open, guess what, they can't catch the ball. So the Chiefs offense is a debacle. I think the Chiefs are in big, big trouble, as do I think the Eagles.
Yeah, I would say if the question was who do you have the least faith, and I'd still pick whoever wins the Texans Colts gaming gets in in the AFC, and I would still pick the NFC South winner, whether it's Tampa, which I'm not so sure of, or the Saints like that would still be I know the Eagles Chiefs is like for teams we had expectations of maybe it's those teams, but you know, taking the question literally, I would still take those teams.
No.
I think you're right.
I think the question has to be asked besides the AFC South or NFC South winner. Yeah, who is the team you have the least confidence in, Brad, your answer that question would be, yeah, Well.
I was just gonna say, well, I know you're picked on the on the Giants. It's like DoD the Eagles pregame show. And I have heard a couple of things within the building the potentially there is a chance and I did bet the Giants myself. I think it's a little bit of a free roal. There's a chance they may rest some of these guys. They especially on defense. I feel like they feel like they really these guys are just absolutely just need a need to arrest, so to speak. So I think there's a chance you get that. But listen, I agree with God in terms of I can't say the Chiefs. Look, I'll say this. You know last year I was like, they are going to get punched for the Tyreek Hilt thing. I go, you don't just lose a premier player like that and get away with it. I go, it's going to hurt them in one game. Working like God, if we had Tyreek Hill, we would have won, you know, And it's gonna happen. It always your your weaknesses always show up in these playoff games, fascinating, bad bullpen in baseball, whatever, a deep whatever, bad run defense, whatever it is, it always seems to show up. Chiefs got away with that last year. There is no way they're gonna get away with it again this year. I absolutely agree with what Todd said. Uh, And it's crazy to me again, I think people just copy each other. Who's power rating the Chiefs highly? Like I, I just don't see it. But and then like Nanosey, the Eagles their defense stinks. I mean they are They're like force Field right like these their their offense can still score, but their defense is wretched.
Uh.
The defensive line, which last year led the league in sacks at a crazy record, hasn't been a show of that this year. And they just can't stop people, guys. So it's like, how's that going to change?
You know?
What's interesting is that they do play first and nine, but they're with the bush push play. But I just think for them to win, they'll have to win a different way where they score slow, because I don't think they have any chance of getting it done. I couldn't agree with you more. And anyone who's betting them, I just think you're betting on the on last year's results.
Yeah.
I always say in sports betting, gill either choose to be consistent or you choose to be right. And in politics everyone chooses to be consistent. They don't care about being right. But in sports game they get better. Choose to be right, because if you choose to be consistent, you're gonna get your new you know, you know, your butt get Yeah, because you're not gonna win. And I will change my opinion with the wind if new information comes out, and you know, and that's what you have to do. You have to adapt if you just stick by and stick by your guns. Oh like Dan Campbell, Oh we're going for two. He chose to be consistent. He chose to be consistent, and they didn't choose to be right.
Great point. And I'll say this about the the Eagles.
The Eagles, they win this game against the Giants, they'll only end up one game worse in the standings than they did at the end of last year.
The ninety they're so.
Philly, nineteen ninety you sent or ninety games.
No ninety games. Yeah, they're fight.
Yeah, there's so much worse than last year's team. And and again thirteen and four is by somehow beating Buffalo, by somehow beating Dallas the first time, by somehow beating Washington both times twice. Yeah, I mean Terry McLaurin was in an overtime. I don't know why they call them out. Yeah, but you know, so it's like they that record is to some degree cosmetic. And the game that Todd and I were watching with the Chiefs was that Raiders game two weeks ago where the Raiders I think blitzed on only like twenty two plays of fifty some or something like that.
The Raiders generated pass rush with just a four man rush, you know, most of the game.
And Todd is right, and most of the time Mahomes is just back there chilling, patting the ball, looking looking nobody open.
Is amazing, aren't they Aren't.
They eleven and five and they were fourteen and three last year?
Oh that's oh no, you're right. They lost to the Cardinals, so you're right. They'll be two games.
We all just we all kind of penciled that.
When it's funny, their season win total, Yeah, depending when you bet, it was either ten and a half or eleven and a half. So if you went over ten and a half and under eleven a half. You're sitting on the middle.
If the Giants pull off this upset, which is possible.
Yeah, no, you're right.
They lost to the Cardinals, which I had the Cardinals supposed to points last week, so they will be two games worse than last year.
Actually do have that middle?
Will Oh?
Do you?
I actually do have total. I actually do it over ten and under eleven and n oh wow.
Okay, Todd, what's your second pick? I'm sorry.
My second pick is and it gives us an opportunity to do something we haven't done too much this year that people clamor for when I don't do it, and that is sing a song that goes a little bit like this. Miami Dolphins, Miami Dophins, they got their shit pushed in, but they're gonna do something this week because the Bills are overrated. Pardon my language there, but the the the Miami Dolphins, there's so much. Okay, I don't like them, you know, I think they're a soft football team. But I think this is a perfect opportunity. We know how NFL teams do when they got blown out the week before, they got obliterated. So if you're gonna get their effort, their best effort. I think you're gonna get it this week. And I don't think the Bills deserve to be a three point favorite on the road. I mean, the Bills just they squeak by. I had that Patriots game. Remember I fes did and unauthorized plus fourteen and a half for me when I said I liked the Patriots, and I'm just like the Patriots were giving them the game. They turned the ball over like fourteen times in the first fifteen times I had it, and they still covered the game easily. The Bills the week before played foot seat with the Los Angeles Chargers and Austin Stick or whatever the hell of that guy's name is.
The Bills are not.
Just blowing people out, folks. The Bills are also just kind of hmm. Yeah, they played the great game against Dallas, But other than that, the Bills are not this juggernaut either. I know, everyone's like, oh, the Bills. They could either be in the playoffs or they could be the two seater or the out of the playoffs, and maybe they're the sleeper for the super Bowl. Yeah. Granted, the Bills can beat anybody, they can lose anybody, But you're gonna get Miami's best effort this week after a complete embarrassment on Sunday. There might be injuries, sure, there might be Robinson, I'm Miami. I'm getting three at home. Give me the Miami Dolphins with the song can I Can?
I just jump in because that's my number three also and that's the that also on guessing lines was I couldn't believe when Kelly told me that that was that right? Like I guessed Miami minus two and a half, even factoring in their injuries because Bradley Chubb is now out for the year.
That on the heels.
See what I did there of Jalen Phillips having the Achilles injury, Xavian Howard is out. Like they've got a lot of injuries, and if you're a Dolphins fan or a Dolphins backer in the postseason, that's tough because they've got But the Bills had a lot of injuries earlier this year and their season long ones too. But I couldn't believe that this was Buffalo minus three on the road, Like what I that it's my third pick too, So I'm on I'm on Miami as well.
Brad your second your three. You got two picks there, second and third.
Yeah, okay, well I'm gonna go out of order. My third pick was Miami, but i'll talk about that one first. Look a lot of that you just said. God, I couldn't first in terms of gassing the lines, this was the line I was most off on, but I understood it to a certain extent. Here's the thing for so Buffalo. To me, guys, I think they're extremely overrated. And here's what I mean by that. Joe Brady's getting a lot of credit for running the ball and then pstle. What he's doing is just they were due just by dapposite of the Eagles, right, how the Eagles were lucky, the Bills were just unlucky. At the beginning, you're taking the ball to Josh Allen's hand. To me, they're not gonna win, just going run, run, run, run run. There's gonna be a game in the playoffs. You mark this down right now. They're down seventeen, nothing like, oh God, we just kept running running, running, and it's.
Gonna be too late. The Bills. Okay, they beat Tasey and a coin flip. They lose the Eagles by three.
The Dallas.
Is there one good game, but they were outplayed by both the Chargers and the Pats. And let's look at last week. Miami's getting three at Baltimore, getting three at Baltimore. Now they're at home getting three against a clearly worse Buffalo team. I understand there's some injuries. Understand that I thought, Yeah, I thought Miami would be favored. So I got embarrassed on this line. But again I understand Miami is banged up. But again I don't think you've any choice but to take Miami day the brain. I'll see like a baby if it loses, because this line, to me is just just wrong. On the last game, I'm gonna give maybe a who cares game, but a game that team I actually think is a little underrated is the New England Patriots. Now hear me out before you laugh me out of the building. I'm looking at their They lose by four to Vegas. They beat the Bills, lose by three to Washington, lose by four to the Colts, lose by three to the Giants, lose by six of the Chargers beat Pittsburgh, lose by ten to Casey, beat Denver, lose by six to the Bills. They've been right there in most of these games down the stretch. The Jets have been blown out by the Browns, by the Bills, by Miami twice, and the Chargers in that same stretch. Patas potentially Bill Belichick's last game. I just think right now, the Patriots are the better team, and I trust them more or to put out a professional performance, even with I've got off a quarterback and their situation and what they have. I thought this line deserved to be three. You know, it's one and a half slash two whatever one you want to give me the me's fine. But I think New England wins this last Belichick game. I just trust them more to give a good performance and not just laying egg.
We should probably tell people that right now as we do this Thursday morning. The highest wins are scheduled for or at least forecast at four Baltimore on Saturday and Foxborough on Sunday. The Raven Steelers total is at thirty five, with again the Steelers favored by four in that game, and in the Patriots case, where the Patriots are favored by two, the total.
Is at thirty and a half. In that ball game, Todd your final one.
My final pick. I was vacillating between two possibilities, and that is either the Bears plus three or the over in the Bears game, I'm going to just take, you know what, I'm going to go over forty four. That'll be my pick. I like the Bears too. I think the Bears are by the way, anybody who thinks they're going to get somebody better than Justin Fields is out of their mind. Justin Fields is not bad at all. Me and Gil we're talking about this all weekend. You know, he's really coming along quite well, and that team in general is coming along what right well, I think the Bears are going to be a series. I would not want to play the Bears in the playoffs right now. I mean, that's how well I feel like the Bears are playing and on defense.
Let me give you that some context.
Aaron Shots, the creator of DVOA, was on a Numbers game this week. We talked about the Bears. The Bears in weighted DVOA, which is DVOA that is more recent, not a full season one. They're seventh in the NFL, so they're really they've really been good, primarily defensively, but we talked a little bit about the Justin Fields thing, because I always say, I go, hey, look, if I'm a Washington guy, I would love to have Justin Fields. The issue though, is financial, right what with these teams teams will have to give up to trade for Justin Fields might immediately make them say, you know what, I'll just draft a quarterback because of the economic structure of the NFL. Right, because it's it's the second Justin Field's contract, you have to worry about which is going to be the massive one. And if you're gonna have to trade a Hall for him to begin with, then does it become worth it for a guy who does make plays that no one else in the league makes except for Lamar Jackson. But also from a passing perspective, is kind of some par when I'm sorry, go ahead, I want.
To ask you a question. Sorry, did you think that means? Very interesting to me? I want to ask your opinion.
Of I think we lost, Brad. Go ahead, Brad opinion.
Because you're talking about Justin Field. Can you hear me? Yeah, go ahead, You're talking about Justin Field.
Lamar Jackson was a free agent last year, right, and you come out in Atlanta and Washington made it clear we don't want him, and I firmly believe they They could have probably gotten them for a first round pick, or two first round picks, whatever would have been.
Why wouldn't I don't one have wanted him?
A guy who won an MVP, who was a clear top eight quarterback by anyone's metrics before last year? Why wouldn't anyone have attempted the trade for him? And then that's one thing that really annoyed me. The other thing is I see a team like the Raiders. I've never seen a player that I can remember.
Gil.
Maybe you'll come to someone else who's living off a preseason more than the aamed O'Connell. Aiden O'Connell's been horrible. If they played Jimmy Garoppolo, this team would have probably two more wins. It could be in the playoffs. No one talks about that either, Yeah, I don't. There's certain things that just infuriate me as as an analytical person, as a probability guy, as a math guy, that aren't hard to see. And what keeps saying, oh, we don't want Lamar Jackson. I know you have to pay him, But Kanel Jones is making forty million a year, so your arguments out the window.
Well, the Lamar Jackson thing might have been collusion, right, because Lamar Jackson was in that contract dispute with the Ravens.
He was acting as his own agent.
And then you had that weird thing where the teams went out of their way to say they didn't want them the Atlanta Falcons.
The Atlanta Falcons.
Were re tweeting other people's you know, tweets about the Falcons aren't interested in the I think the team Twitter couldn't wait to tell you they weren't interested obviously in retrospect. Stupid them, right, because obviously he's gonna win his second MVP here.
But that was that was a different kind of thing.
This with Justin Fields is more of a and I get the I get the I get both sides of the argument because like Todd, I think Justin Fields is really good and better. You can count on him to be better most most likely, right, one of these quarterbacks can hit big. There's no question there could be a Justin Herbert and a Joe Burrow in this group. Some people think Drake May is that guy. Some people think you should go with a mobile guy like a Jayden Daniels and other people think Caleb Williams is a generational player, but I like what I see in Justin Fields. The problem is you have to trade a Hall for him, and then you have to deal with his second contract, Whereas the only way you can really win a Super Bowl is with a quarterback who outperforms a rookie deal in a Hall of Famer, and Justin Field ain't either of them at this point.
So that's the problem.
What are you doing, the Bears? You know, what are you doing if you're.
Well, I think if you're the If you're the Bears, I think what they're going to do is try to trade him for a Hull and draft a quarterback.
That's my guess.
If they're unable to do that, they'll be happy to take Marvin Harrison or whatever. I think if you're a team like Washington, which drafts right behind him, or any of those other teams that need a quarterback, I think you probably inquire about Justin Fields. Then you're probably going to find out the asking price is way too high. Then you're going to do the contract assessment, and you're going to say to yourself, you know what I'm just gonna draft Michael Pennix or Jayden Daniels are one of these guys.
Yeah, I think that's going to happen.
Makes sense.
Will, you're not you have guys, go ahead, Will.
Football is with the way the league is is a good defense and a cheap quarterback that allows you to just stack the team the rest of the way. And the Bears are set up to do just that, So I think they're not. The field's going to want a ton of money too. It's not gonna say, hey, I wasn't good in the first few years.
Let me give you a break.
Here.
His agent him, he's gonna want a lot of money. He's a running player.
Can you keep him kealthy? I mean, you're talking thirty five plus million. I mean, I don't know the economics. He's gonna want a fortune though.
That's that's the problem with the economics, as we've discussed so many times, right, the Vikings are forced to pay Kirk Cousins or well Washington didn't want to, the Vikings finally did. Or the Cowboys with Dak Prescott, you name your quarterback that The Rams did it with Jared Goff before they traded him I thought the Rams should have been the first example of a team purging their quarterback and drafting because they had this great defense. That the Seahawks should have won more than one super Bowl in this same kind of format with a rookie deal with Russell Wilson in a great defense. I just think that's the problem. What you said, Will, is that Justin Fields, when he comes up for his and this is going to be his fifth year optional coming up, it's not like they can It's not like a team can say, all right, we don't have to pay every quarterback this massive deal, because in the end, you do, because someone will. So they a man that at a point in their career where you just don't know if they're going to be a super Bowl winning quarterback in the end.
It's it's a kind of fucked up system.
But it just doesn't you know.
I really respect your opinion very very much, and I want to hear and I respect to opinion very much.
Uh, will you too? I I but I I happen to know these guys.
I'm trying to understand something a little bit like I Justin Fields, a guy I probably watched I just an agenorting amount of times from as time as I went to Michigan, I.
Watch so much. Justin Fields is probably embarrassing. What have you seen?
And Alwa's played better recently? And I'll give him that again, would you be consistent?
Would you just be right? I'd rather be right. He's definitely improved a ton recently. I'll give him that.
But what have you seen, guys that you don't know that he's not just a far more athletic Daniel Jones. I just can if they're down th ten of the game, like Jared golf was against the Cowboys, you like Justin Fields to lead you down.
No, you're right, he might very well be that, Brad, You're right that. That's why I say who's good? But that's the and that's the counter argument. The counter argument is, yeah, go ahead to I'm saying.
I just don't think. Look, I'm not saying Justin Field is an e leite quarterback. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying he is now a little bit above average and continues to improve. And this is the other point. You can't get anyone, there's no one to get right.
Well, well, they're gonna have the first pick in the draft, so we're.
Gonna Yeah, they have the first pick in the draft.
Dude, I I right, but that is not a hundred No, I agree this case.
This is why there's time. This is not there's there's no right or wrong to this answer.
Right because Fields makes plays that no one else makes besides Lamar Jackson.
I believe that.
On the other hand, do I think he's going to be a super Bowl winning quarterback? Probably not? Maybe, but probably not. And so it it does become this, there's no right answer. It's such an inexact science.
So you're better off, right if you got to get it.
You gotta get it right.
That's what you get paid to do. You gotta get it right. You can't watch this right, they.
Better.
But here's here's the here's the trick of it all, the thing that messes with the brain. If you're a Washington guy, let's just take them. Would Washington have won more games this year with Justin Fields at quarterback than with Sam Howell? Yes, yeah, one hundred and so you become drunk with that. You know, it's tantalizing. You're like, well, you know, we got all those great receivers and Terry McLaurin would have been better, and oh my god, we would have won this man, maybe would have made the playoffs. But then then it's sort of like the Washington Bullets of the eighties. You're gonna be forty and forty two every year. Yeah, So it's it's such a it's and we're talking about nine figures. We're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars.
Here's the other thing, though, The league was really watered down this year, So I'd be very careful making judgments off like a small sample in like, you know, four or five games this year where everybody had their quarterback her league was down where it's like, oh, he didn't look that bad compared to these other.
Guys this year.
This was a strange year. I would take that into account too.
Yeah, I I honestly think that that's what's gonna happen. I think they're going to hope to get a haul for him. If they do, they'll make the trade and they'll draft a quarterback. If they don't, they're still probably better off drafting a quarterback. But I think if you're watching or any of the teams who are thinking about justin fields, I think what you will figure out is that it's way too high of a price. The contract is looming, and you got to try to hit on the quarterback, whether it's Pennix or Daniels or Williams or May. I was talking about Drake May with Aaron Shotts and I said, oh, I don't want Washington draft Derek May. We just drafted Sam Howe, same school. He goes, Oh, no, you don't understand. Drake May is like one of the.
Highest rated scouted quarterbacks like ever. And I'm like, okay, I guess Carolina exactly. It's such an inexact science.
I'm sorry, Todd, go ahead, Okay, my second, my third pick. I was going to take Bears, but I like over forty four better in that game. I just think that, you know, Love has been made making great strides. You all know that I used to bag on Love and used to say how bad he was at Utah State and blah blah blah. He has definitely turned the corner here. The Packers are doing things on offense. They're a legit offensive football team. I think they can score points and the Bears and by the way, they can't stop anybody. And don't tell me, oh they stopped Minnesota. Yeah, they stopped Minnesota with a guy who's a tiny bit better than Gillet quarterback Hall for Byu, it was a joke, okay, so give me a break. The Carolina Panthers scored thirty points against the Green Bay Packers. The Carolina Panthers should not score thirty points in a half season. That's how bad the Carolina Panthers are on offense. Yet they scored thirty points in lambe I believe that game wasn't Lambeau, but they scored thirty points two weeks ago against him. I think the Bears are going to move the ball, you know, easily against his Packer. I think the Packers are also going to be able to move the ball against the Bears. I happen to like the Bears plus the three as well, but give me the over forty four with the Bears.
Well your final pick.
I thought about going Bucks, I thought about going Jags. I did bet both those you guys mentioned Jets Patriots. I'll go under Jets Patriots. Wow, whether it's.
Before you do that will? What about the Brons? You don't like the Brons?
The Bronze Why the Browns?
He just wanted because Jeff Friscal is not that bad.
He just wanted to say bronze Browns and go ahead.
Sorry good.
I mean this to me has like a ten three game in all of it.
Wins snow, two bad quarterbacks, two defensive minded coaches that could be conservative, two good defenses. You know, it's the last game of the season, so I mean, I don't know if that factors into it. Where these teams just want to get out of dodge with you know, somebody winning the game thirteen to six or whatever. Unless there's just a rash of turnovers and defensive scores here or defense setting up offense. I don't see either team standing enough offense to get over this number.
ZAPPI was dreadful last week. Simeans not much better.
So to me, I don't know.
Thirteen ten somebody, I'll go under thirty and a half Jets Patriots.
If you didn't have New Englandland wall happy, if you didn't have a bet on that game, how much would I have to pay you to watch every play that game?
Oh?
Every play? A couple hundred bucks. I could stick through it.
A couple of hundred have to pay me anything. You wouldn't paying.
Anything wouldn't have to be talking anything.
He's easy because I'd be watching Steven F. Austin and Utah ut Rio Grande Valley and then split screen.
Oh no, no, no, no, no no, You're not allowed to do that. He would have to only have one screen. Those are the rules, all right? Were we do a better question?
A better question? How much would you have to watch it in person to sit through.
The cold the wall?
That's well.
You know when I was a kid and my dad and my dad and I would go to RFK.
I remember him so many times saying to me, you really think this is better than watching it at home with the sandwich. And I remember thinking in my like eight year old brain, I'd be like, what the fuck is wrong with them? Like it, of course this is better. And now i'm him right like now you're like, oh yeah, it's fucking It is ridiculous to go to go to a game like that.
I was, you know, I was a huge Eagles fan. So I remember there's Redskins games like back in the day, like all like when Eagles could never really beat the Washington they always like, oh yeah.
A monk and Gibbs had Buddy Ryan's number.
Yeah, and like even with the weather, whatever quarterbacks they had in they were just so good. Washington and that one team that when the Seam won the Super Bowl, though, Eagles were the only team to beat them. If you remember that team that went fifteen and one, we either went fifteen to one, they beat Buffalo in the Super Bowl.
The fourteen and two ninety one Skins.
Oh there were fourteen and two. Yeah, when Ripping won, Ripton was great.
Cowboys were the only one to beat him that year in a meaningful game.
Yeah, right, and the Eagles beat him in the last game of the year.
If I remember it was that the Eagles. Yeah, it might have been the Eagles in the last game it.
Was, but yeah, Washington was. It's so many good teams. Gosh, you were up in a great era.
Oh I did oh I did I remember it?
Well?
Oh okay, I just have that moment thinking about Teaser of the Week, Todd says, this is the only record that matters Teaser of the Week. This is for the teaser title, right, this is big brad.
Well, the guest is it twelve and five? Will is at five and I'm at twelve and five.
I'm trying to say that I'm not at twelve and five, as I was just trying to say.
Bill, is that a paltry ten and seven?
All right, Brad, what's your favorite two teams? Six point t Colts?
I was just that, I was just gonna ask the same thing.
It's I have one one and a half Texans minus one, Texans minus one.
Okay, well I'm gonna do with six and a half point teaser, then that's what i'd happen.
No, No, it's only six, Brad, only six? Sorry, Brad?
All right, I'll politic on Brad's point. I mean Fandels one and a half, DraftKings says one and a half, and alex Is one.
Yeah, yeah, they're right. Bet online Bavada and.
Seven every week.
And by the way, guys, and I'm sure you guys are the same way. You guys are also super smart and doing this. If the Colts were the one and a half point favorite, I'd be saying Texans right, yeah, Like, if this is this is dealer's choice there, you're not gonna make the one team a one and a half point favorite, thank you. I'll take the team that's the underdog. Look, you know, we we all know about the Wong teasers. You don't have to, you know, me telling you this. You know I'm gonna go through the three and the seven. I will tell you this, guys, and I think you'll agree with me every game now. I used to, you know, not say blow off, but if the game was up through five or whatever or nine or or whatever number like, it doesn't make it. A five is a dead number. I feel like there's no more dead numbers anymore with teams going.
I agree with you, Yeah, Brett, I agree with you. One hundred number. Things totally different now.
Yeah, it's totally different.
Like now, every half point to me, the three and the seven were a little bit less for sure, But I feel like every half point on every number, I don't care what it is, is like meaningful because look I don't I'm sure you guys remember you guys are experts and the stuff. The Browns game against the Jaguars when it was a Peterson down I think ten, they kicked. They scored a touchdown with like a minute ago to go down four, they went for two. You know, so like every you you can't relax, Dan camp Well going for at the sun.
We might have lost Brad there.
Yeah, He's right though, Remember Arizona went for two from eleven to nine and at Baltimore.
Yeah all right, so Brad, couple.
In the you know, I'm gonna tease that with the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals got up to eight and a half because I think it's mostly mostly two and a half. Look, Seattle is a team. They just have struggled to get margin in any kind of game. I liked them last week. I know Todd did too. Against Pittsburgh. They laid a pretty big egg there. Arizona with Kyler Murray is not a bad team. I see this game being very fifty to fifty like, and I think if Seattle wins, I don't think it's gonna be at my margin.
Give me the Cardinals in the court.
Will Did you you lost your your season win total on the Cardinals last week?
I got a few of them. I have five and a half, four and a half, three and a half. Three and a half is dead. The five and a half's a winner. In the four and a half I thought was a win after the Bears then down fifth, and I really thought it was a win fifteen points down at Philadelphia.
But I got off a little of it. I'll probably get off the rest this week.
This Cardinals seems not terrible, like it's actually they're closer to like a wild card team than like the worst team in the league.
This team is not horrible.
Oh and by a lot of people were wrong, by the way.
That's another part of our quarterback discussion is the Cardinals will probably keep Kyler Murray because they've already done that deal, right, the big deal, So it's not like they have to make an assessment about that.
So that's kind of immer.
Justin Fields.
I'll take. I'll take Justin Fields just because of the hope.
Of the potential maybe less injury risk maybe.
So yeah, I'll take Kyler Murray. I think Kyler Murray's excellent.
He is great. He's great. Todd your two team teaser, big one here coming.
My two team teaser. By the way, get your Steven F. Austin bets ready at twelve minute time out coming up. I am going to go with the Baltimore Ravens going up to ten Ravens plus ten, because you know, it's one thing for the stores to win, it's a whole another inchilada for the stores to be able to beat somebody by ten points. In that, I mean that's two scores. I don't know what Yin's are looking at Ravens plus ten and I'll take my Other one will be I like Arizona two. I like the Arizona Cardinals up.
To eight and a half, Wally, I will use the Colts.
Since we're getting the seven and a half, I would think that would be a close game. I want to take Arizona too. I'll be a little different, though. I'll break the long rules of hope, fess and listening. I'll take the Carolina Panthers up to ten and a half. Tampa stinks too, expecting them to win by like eleven plus.
On the road. I'm fine.
I'll take Carolina. Actually, you know what, I'll predict the Carolina upset. I think Carolina upsets them.
Wow this week.
I don't like this Tampa team, so that ten and a half is a lot.
I'm tempted to do the two lowest totals and take the Dogs and just go Ravens and Ravens and Jets. But instead I'm gonna go Ravens and Colts. I'm gonna do a Saturday teaser. Both home teams teased up Ravens to ten, Colts to.
Seven and a half.
By the way, I'm not getting any love that Texans Colts game is a huge game. Obviously, the winner is going to be the AFC South Champs if the Jaguars lose. By the way, with the Colts and the Texans, there is also other scenarios with them. The Colts first of all, both of the like the Steelers in the early game. The Steelers can still make the playoffs if they lose with a Jaguars lost and a Broncos win, And if the Texans and Colts don't end in a tie, and then with that Houston Indianapolis game, Houston wins Jags.
Lose, they're the AFC South champs.
But if Houston wins and the Jags, If Houston wins and the Jags win, the Texans can still be a six.
If Buffalo were to lose.
To Miami and then they'd be a seventh seed. If the Bills beat Miami, they win, the Bills be Miami, Miami would be the six and Houston would be the seven. Indianapolis they win and the Jaguars lose, they're the AFC South. But if they lose, they're out.
So the Colts.
If the Colts beat the Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars beat Tennessee, but Buffalo also loses to Miami, the Colts are in as a number six seed. So there's all kinds of little cork to that.
I want to ask you.
Three guys a question because I told you you know, I specialize in props and futures.
That's what I've made my bones on throughout the years.
And there's and I feel like these sportsbooks copy each other right on my times on these on these futures, and they'll be inefficient. Like last year, one of my biggest bet was six Man the Year in the NBA. I took Malcolm Brogden quickly was like minus seven hundred, and I'm like, no one's looking at the stat Brogden's better in every category and people are just copying a bad line. I want to answer you guys in the bet that I've been betting and tell me if I'm off, because I respect your free opinion very much because I have don't even really talked about it. Come Back Player of the Year in the NFL, who should win? Who do you think is going to win because the guy who's the favorite I don't even have as a candidy tell me, check me if I'm wrong. I don't think he should even get a vote. But I'm curious if you think I'm just smoking the good stuff.
Well, we've done collectively probably ten hours on this subject. But I mean, I I here's the thing. I had two AP voters on this week. Will is about to have two on all so Mike Sando. Mike Sando and Aaron.
Shots they're two of the fifty eight P voters for these.
Mike Sando is Damar Hamlin died on the field. He's the comeback player of the year. Aaron Shotts three weeks four weeks ago said, the interesting thing about this is if you don't have Hamlin number one the ballot is one, two and three, you probably won't have him on the ballot at all. You'll decide on a football player. And that's how he felt four weeks ago. Yesterday he was on the show and he said, yeah, but here's the thing. If forty eight people I'll paraphrase, if like forty eight of the fifty say it's Hamlin, he doesn't want to be found out as one of the two. That doesn't because he doesn't want that shame involved. So you know, Flaco's not playing this week. Can Joe Flack will be the comeback player of the year with five games?
Maybe he can't. Maybe he can't, but you'll see.
Hamlin just went back to minus two fifty after Flacco was announced not playing this week.
I think in the end it's gonna be Hamlin. That's my hunch.
You do, okay, Yeah, And I know there's a bit a lot.
Of people have big tickets on Flatco too.
Well.
You know what's interesting, Gill And by the way, again great, So I hope the guy. I literally cried that night. It was one of the I mean, as a sports fan awful that I was emotionally devastated that night and I remember it like it was yesterday. But it's interesting, like when you saw Alex Smith when comeback player here, he went through a gruesome nine month, twelve hour day rehab that was just and he didn't play well. You know, I know he was a you know, washing a guy, but he didn't really critically play great, but what he went through was crazy. Now you're right, the mar Hamlin died on the field, and I'm the biggest wimp in the world. I couldn't overcome any of these things. These guys come first, So lehim make that clear. And the mar Hamlin's amazing at the great story. I hope he makes millions motivational speaking, But in terms of the actual comeback, was it really a comeback?
And I'm not I'm not trying to be intensive.
No you're not.
But that that's the problem with this award is that you're you're handicapping the voters. No buddy knows what the fifty different people are thinking as the criteria for this.
What would you vote if you were one of the voters Bill Hamlin?
I would vote Hamlin because I was screaming. I was screaming last summer he almost died on the field, Like he almost died on.
The field, Like who died?
Like you have to By the way, the Alex Smith comparison, Alex Smith did come back and start for Washington and one week he led the NFL in passing yards. He threw for three hundred and ninety yards. So Alex Smith, Yeah, Alex Smith legitimately came back tomorrow. Hamlin was what active for only a few games, and he made a tackler too. I think one tackle at least. It's funny though, because I said all you had had to do was step on the field. My producer Kelly Biblin said, no, he has to make one tackle. He made exactly one tackle.
So I don't know. I just in my my hunch is Hamlin. I could be very wrong, but I think will Will will do. You did it best. You had a Flacco and then you you covered your position with Hamlin.
Correct who do you both.
Gonna win it?
So I had Hammlin plus one seventy five. Remember when the season ended last year, you guys talked about it, Hamlin plus one seventy five. Bet that Yeah, jumped in at Flacco like sixty to one, then again at twelve to one.
And people have much better prices to fifty to one hundred to one.
The way, A more important thing is you better get down on the first half. Seventy five and a half over in the Steven F. Austin first half. I'm sorry to interrupt you, Willie, but I did text you guys, and I'm not sure that you put that in, but you better put it in.
Sorry, hit seventy seven and a half.
Damn it, well, just do it, do it, Gilly. The game is ridiculous and the fouls are ridiculous.
Okay, I'll do it.
I do think Hamlin's going to win. I think it'll be a close vote.
I got the sense that the vote was flipping a few weeks ago when when Flacco was lighting up the Texans, because to me, this isn't comeback player of the year. People take the war the wording too literally. It's more what is the best story, and Flacco is just an incredible story. I mean, he was hasn't been good in a long time. Now he's got the Browns where they're live. Who knows, But I think it'll be a very close vote. But I do think Hamlin wins.
Who deserves it.
I do it.
Yeah. Will.
The only guy that could ever remember coming out of left field as much as Flaccough ironically telling you guys agreed, was Gino Smith last year, a guy who was bad for eight straight years, you know, and then playing really well last year. That's the difmage why Seattle hasn't been to a ten win teams because he's been back to being mediocre, not the you know, top ten quarterback like was last year. To me, this Flacco thing is just unbelievable to me. But again, I respect your guys opinion. I may, I may, I may bite the boat and pull the trigger and bet some Hamlin right now, just because I have Flacco at twenty to one.
That's why I bet yeah cover if.
The comeback picker of the year last year, Gilly loses on the fourth and twenty play to me in the picks because you know I ever pesics, so oh Houston's not going to try, love you Smith's not gonna try. Yes, he is gonna try and fourth and twenty Davis Mills heut that in nowhere to win it. And I win the pick contest by a half because of Damar Hamlin because he got injured at Billy. He didn't get that game to the pick. And then Gilly with the comeback pick of the year as he's picking winners this year.
Thank you forever an aster Riskay forever, an aster risk.
Because I had to play in the Bengals Bills game, we usually asked the final two questions we always ask, but we usually ask here, what's the big favorite that you believe is the most likely to lose? Outright, we only have two choices here that are above a five point favorite.
That's it. So I'm just gonna ask you, these two.
Bengals are gonna lose? Are the Cowboys?
Are the Cowboys going to lose to the Commanders as a thirteen and a half point road favorite, or are the Bengals gonna lose at home to the Brownie says a seven point home favorite.
Jeff Driscoll, Baby, Jeff Driscoll, I like that pick too. I think the Browns are gonna cover that.
You think they're gonna lose? You think the Bengals gonna lose out right?
Yeah? I could easily see Jeff Driscoll is not I've seen him play before. He's not that bad.
Okay, does anybody disagree that it's the Bengals over the Cowboys in this or No?
No, that's a preseason game. Anything happens.
Okay, Yeah, that question kind of falls by the wayside this week. Here is the question. The second question though.
Sixteen NFL games, two on Saturday, the rest on Sunday, the night cap being the the Bills and the Dolphins. You have to pick a side in every one of these games, Brad, But you get one pass one game you want no part of on the side.
What game is that?
It's easy for me.
I don't know how anyone can't say Chargers Chiefs. I I couldn't bet that game, and with with anyone's.
Eye, that's a pretty good one if you're gonna.
Be setting everyone the Chargers stink as it is. I don't even know how you make an What did you guess for guessing the lines, i'd be you're great at that.
I didn't hear. Do you remember what you guessed?
I will tell you what I guess because I don't remember. Let me see what I guessed.
One of those like, okay, fine, do do do do?
I had to pick them. I completely punted on it.
Okay, right, okay, you know who's gonna wine? Maybe for you you would take the chief Then. I don't know even how to get handicap that game in a million years. When I looked at these games, I'm like, that's the game if I bet. If I gave out that game, I must not like someone picking. I'm trying to just get them to lose one because I couldn't even guess who's gonna win that game.
If the Chiefs win their divisional playoff, game. Remember they're the third seed in the AFC. No matter what happens here, then we will finally get to seek Patrick Mahomes on the road in the postseason in the divisional round. So the wild wildcard round they get a home game, then we would see him for the first time. Eight straight AFC West titles for the Chiefs. Despite all of that, Todd, what game you want no part of?
Well? I do want part of the assessment Steven F. Austin game because it's a Tim Donnie special baby, Tim donnihey repping today's game and calling every single bout. They're both in the bonus. With ten thirty to go at the half, you gotta go, Tim Donnie. I agree with Brett on the wait game. I don't want to play in the NFL.
I think I think Brett, that might be mine? Will what's yours?
That was gonna be mine?
I always like to be a little bit different, so we don't have the same one. How about Bill's Dolphins. I know we say, hey, it's an overreaction, they shouldn't be the line. Then you're right, But when you look at this Dolphins injury report, my goodness, Waddle and all the guys on defense. The offensive line two was banged up. Hill has not been explosive. He's been in and out of practice. I don't want a Lake three on the road here with the Bills. I'm curious if we get a three and a half. But man, this this Miami team with all these injuries is scary back. So I'll throw that one in there.
It's a time for me. I know you're not supposed to do this before week eighteen. I'm gonna do it.
Chiefs, Chargers, Rams, Niners. What the hell Wentz Wentz versus Donald? Just get Pooka the ball four times for thirty yards. I think we can all agree on that.
Just get it to game.
That game shows you how ridiculous the NFL draft is, because it's not that long ago.
Not only were Wentz and Sam Donald.
High picks number two and number five, but teams were trading up, giving you all their assets to go and pick those guys that high, and here we are, and their afterthoughts in this you know, wash up game.
Not only that Washington traded the house for Wentz even when we knew he sucked. Like I mean, it's just like then that lingers for a while the Carson Wentz's career is one of the more remarkable things ever.
Like there's a moment here where he's like, you're the NFL MVP.
And then in year two, year two, I mean, but all these guys with injuries r G three, people forget how great he was his rookie year.
Then injuries.
Yeah, gentlemen, thank you. Good luck Week eighteen for Todd wish Neev. I get at t wish Nev cod Do you want to pump your college hoops thing? You want to pump that at all?
I t wish Nev. I have not gotten around to adding new people to the WhatsApp group, but as soon as I do. Now that I'm back in the Burg, I'll have a little more time to get people added on to that thing, because the people have been liking it.
The best thing about hanging out with Todd for two weeks is I got the full wish Nev experience. He was crushing college basketball and then college football just absolutely sodomized him. And when it wasn't, he was turning winners into losers with over betting, which I thought was spectacular as well.
But he made great bets and they still didn't get you.
Head. Yes I did for intant I did on Michigan with you like I liked Michigan, and then the Alabama totally took control of the game.
So I went with Alabama and you were you did you make the right place. But Hushem doesn't like you, Todd, He does not like you.
Hate taking the college Bold season off. Hushem was in full flux for college football.
No doubt. Will promote your stuff.
What you got, uh Bear Bets podcast, and then my new podcast should have bet More, So check that out. Aaron Shotts should be posting tomorrow had g On had the Bear On.
So appreciate you guys checking that out.
Should have bet More and Brad Feinberg from NBC Sports affiliate Brad's Best Bets on Twitter, thank you for doing this man. Where can people find you on your Twitter or elsewhere?
Yeah, on my Twitter Brad's Best Bets. I encourage that. Again, I do a podcast on the Live Betting Show. I do halftime analysis for Live Bets at halftimes on Sunday and Monday night football game. But again, Gil, I really can't thank you enough, and I really mean heartfelt love your show. You're one of the classiest best guys in the business edition.
We've Brad me the kind of guy. Would you say that he's like makes the industry look good? Because I'm not sure you're getting that across really, because.
You know what, Todd, I'm being honest, because there's so many people.
I'm just.
We all know it's with you, people who are hard working, honest, people are smart and intelligent and who do do this for a living. And I always uh like telling people that because I wish it was more of them in the world.
I really do.
Thank you, Brad.
That's very kind of you, and it means the world to me, despite these two uh schmendricks over here trying to stop you in the middle.
I appreciate it very much.
We heard enough, Brad, I mean, we can't hear anymore. But oh, such a great guy in an industry full of Charlatan's. I didn't even gil Alex.
People should know.
But it's true. It's true.
I didn't even know. I didn't even know, Brad. It was Todd who suggests did you come on the podcast too? So Todd, I thank you for it.
By the way, get pod with his college.
By the way, if you saw me at the off.
It is with the way Tod does it, he is, in my opinion, less likely to have those because he's doing mathematical things where he probably it's like having coin flips. Fifty five percent coin flips go against you time after time after time. Probably doesn't happen as much to him as to other people who are maybe doing props or doing games, because he always has a mathematical edge.
I always say, show your work. It happens on every bet.
Yeah, but it does. It does happen, don't get don't get me wrong. It happens.
It's a It's about as solid a thing in sports betting as you can have. I really believe. Yeah, gentlemen, thank you.
I was going to say, Gilly, if you saw Gilly at the Bacchanall buffet, you wouldn't think he had too much integrity. I'll tell you that.
Oh I'll tell you what.
If there's a fake contest, I'll lay myself is eight fifty and you guys combined.
Oh man, I don't know what that means. I'm just saying was going strong to the basket. That's all. I'll say.
No one's ever as strongest tie at a buffet. Trust me, good luck with all your bets. Week eighteen in the National Football League.
Thanks for listening.