Beating The Book: 2023 Week 17 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview

Published Dec 28, 2023, 7:37 PM

Gill Alexander, Todd Wishnev (VSiN Contributor), Will Hill (VSiN Contributor), and Kelley Bydlon (VSiN) break down all of the week 17 NFL betting action! The quartet gives you their best bets of the week, best teaser options, which big favorite is most likely to lose outright, and the game they want no part of.

Thursday morning, December twenty eighth, twenty twenty three.

It is the Beating the Bug podcast the megapod for week number seventeen in the National Football League. It's Gil Alexander. Glad you could join us once again as we look to close out the betting competition for the year, because I believe I may have clinched it, although maybe not against the guest chair.

Yeah, I think it is. Oh, it's very close.

I mean the guest chair is at twenty five twenty and three and you're at thirty two, fifteen and one thirty two.

Oh, I would fifty find it hard.

You would have to go oh and six and they would have to go six and oh to beat you. I think that's possible. No, they still couldn't beat you even six and oh couldn't beat you.

Yeah, it's a winner.

Oh wait a second, No, could six and O beat you?

It would be it depends on Just look at the loss column The lost columns is five, but but they have three times.

Ladies and gentlemen, that's the voice of Todd Wishnev. He's not at his mom's cork attic. He is right here at the d Hi Bar. Candidate at the d is just on a numbers game as well, so he's dressed for the occasion with his Pittsburgh Steelers sweatpants. Very nice. Will Hill is back at his layer over there on the East Coast as well.

How you doing, Will, I'm okay.

I'm one touchdown away from swearing off betting forever because I have under twenty three and a half on his SMU Boston College game, and nobody was doing anything until like five minutes ago.

Now it's like, yeah, the two thousand.

Rams versus the ninety eight Vikings and nobody can stop each other.

But other than that, I'm okay. What's going on?

Guys, don't worry about the eighty don't don't ever not include the eighty three Redskins in that. By the way, as well, great offensive team.

Oh, I should have made a mistake.

I made it.

Yeah, that's a big mistake.

I wasn't a lot, you know.

By the way, I have the under forty one. I have been undefeated in game betting college football sides during bullseason, and I'm about to be zero win and two on totals. So I don't know why I keep doing this to myself. I have the under forty one.

That's not a huge sample size there, Gilly, that is correct. That is correct.

Can I just get back to the thirty two to fifteen in one think about that versus Millions. Thirty two to fifteen in one is sixty seven percent. Had a great year here on this show, continue to have a great year. The guy leading Millions is at seventy two percent. He's and they obviously go five games deep. We only go three games deep, so he's played thirty two everyoney Millions has played thirty two more games than we have here on the megapod because we do three week He's twenty six and six above what I've done, which is just I mean, you think about those contests, You're like, good God, how would you ever in a million years win those things? Because with the size of those pools, someone randomly will be that good. By the way, our rotating guests on the show today, if you're wondering, is right here as well. At Bar Canada, he is the producer of a numbers game. He's the host of the Hardwood Handicappers basketball podcast co.

Host, which he does with Jonathan on Toeble.

What else do you do, Kelly?

What other accolades A long Shots Long Shit's called Shots long Shots, Live Bets Sunday with the great Ben Wilson.

Yes, it's Kelly Binlin. Everybody new to the megapod, first time ever. And as I said to Kelly a couple times this week on a numbers game, what's it like to reach the big time?

Ah, it's great. Thanks for having me on, guys. Thanks for the whole audience showing up here. It's great. It's pretty interesting watching you at the beginning, continuing to look into the camera like we're doing a regular just.

Looking at Will.

It needs to be monitored. But now it's great to be on with you, guys. And then we got Luke Walton over on Skype right now with Will.

Yeah, look at Sharp.

Come on Crosby.

He's been called Max Crosby before. Oh yeah, he loves it. He's actually a Vikings hoodie Vikings Hoodie Lakers had He's there. We go, all right, you guys ready to do this Todd. Official records are what now?

Official records are Gilly thirty two, fifteen and one, Willie twenty six and twenty two, Met twenty three, twenty two and three, and the guest is twenty five, twenty and three to you in the more important teaser categories, Guy Will Todd and the guests are eleven and five and are fearless. Leader who can't get anything wrong on a regular thing is only nine and seven. So I don't know what that is interesting that he can't get the teaser right, but he can get the regular games. But even so nine and seven is passable on teasers. So we must tip our hat to mister gilly As even though we don't really want to tip our hat to them.

Okay, I know you guys do it weekly, but have you guys been betting as many teasers this year as you feel like you have in recent years? A resounding note for me, you not at all. That's why I mat, Yeah, it's been way less this year.

I just don't you get in these like mental spaces where you just like start purge things like I just think about like the biggest example, less baseball season win totals. I used to bet a bunch of them every off season. I barely bet any of them. Also, it's just even more for me.

It was easy to Okay, one if I don't see it, I don't see it. But since you guys do this every week and you're always making a teaser every single week four the Pie. Yeah, well every you don't hear those records every week and then think to yourself, Oh, maybe I should be betting these a little bit more.

Oh no, well, well for me, no, it's the opposite, right, So I bet every one of my picks on this show, every one of the straits the teasers. Is like, I'm just flipping coins on the teasers. Who was the guy that Colt's got me last week? That's who got me on the teaser. So it's it is an interesting thing that I'm able to do one one very well. But by the way, I'll say this again, also, we said this on a numbers game. If I'm going three deep on these straight bets, I'm your guy. If we're going five deep, I'm not your guy. I'm I can't even get to sixty percent in millions because my fourth and fifth picks fall off a cliff.

That's also a small sample size as well.

It's all a small sample size. But I'm just saying yeah, even I mean, listen, we've had guys like Las Vegas, Chris and James Alinas who and Steve Vezik could perform well two years in a row in these contests. Even that's a small sample size, of course, you know, if we want to get into it. By the way, I'd like no more scoring in this first half, please, That would be wonderf.

Were gonna have a problem.

Will is sweating this drive here from SMU. He's to keep him out of the end zone.

Where can I get action down?

That?

I bet Will makes another bet even if he loses this bet.

Oh, there's no question Will is always making. Will hit a bet yesterday that I would argue is the most unbelievable winner I've seen in a long time. He had the would you get Will?

Yeah?

Go ahead?

You describe Will West Virginia first half team total over sixteen and a half. They were at seven with like a minute thirty left and a half, and on defense they got a quick stop, they got a punt return touchdown, UNC gets a pretty quick touchdown, and then West Virginia finagals their way.

Into field goal range to get the over sixteen and a half.

Incredible and typically cap to.

I want to say Will was on it too, right?

Will? You were on West Virginia early? Right? I know I know, the great Chris Balika was, Yeah, but I feel like I don't know.

If I gave it out on the air. I did give out Oklahoma State on gilsh Oh yesterday and USA. I think I had pretty well down pat where I said, like, maybe there's a little ewing theory with Kayleb Williams being out and it's funny I bet USC first quarter plus points. USC to score first because they start with the ball, and they get the ball first, go three and out. They don't score first, but after that they really just dominated that game.

SMU has all their timeouts and they and they seemed to refuse to use them, which is awesome for us, although maybe they just did. Now Yeah, they finally did with forty seven seconds. Okay, any in game thoughts from last week in the NFL Before we get to the best bets.

There was actually a couple of good ones. The oh well, I'll just talk about the one that I was here on Monday night that almost ended up being one of the worst beats ever. But the Lamar Jackson. It was early second quarter. It seemed to me that every single play, instead of running the ball, the Ravens were throwing these real quick passes to like Zay Flowers into the running backs. I think he might have had like, at the time, twelve attempts and they only had his over under a like thirty five and a half, which and there were still three quarters to go, and they were just literally throwing those. It was a way of them doing the running game without doing the running game, because I think they thought, we can't run between the tackles and we're just gonna keep throwing these little dink balls. And so I said, okay, I got to get on on Lamar Jackson over actually double better. Oh yeah, Harbaugh's is brilliant. So anyways, I do that. At halftime, the guy has twenty six throws already. I only have to get the thirty five nine more throws in the second half, which in a sixteen to twelve game, it's almost impossible not to get there. And then of course the game gets out of hand, and now the Ravens stopped throwing because you know, they barely even have the ball because finally on the last second to last drive, it's third and long and they're gonna throw, and he goes back to pass and he gets sacked, and I'm literally like apoplectic that I'm going to possibly lose a bet that was maybe one of the best in games that I've had all year. And then finally they got the ball one more time and on third down he threw incomplete, So I did get the thirty five. But to me, if you can get the twenty, if you can get the twenty six at the half in a game we only need nine more in the score of sixteen to twelve, I mean, it's a freaking great bet. And it was all based on me watching the game and realizing that Harball realizes he has to make quick throws instead of running the ball.

Was that the one where you kept trying to get me to say it was the greatest bet you've ever made, and I kept saying is one of the greatest.

Was trying to lower my But I really felt it was such a great bet because it was a noticing something algorithm didn't notice, which was Harball realized I cannot just line up and push them around. I'm gonna have to simulate a running game by throwing a little quick dart passes. I always had Zay Flowers in the game because they had seven catches in the first half and I ended up getting that one too. But the point is that if you're watching these games and you can figure out little angles like that, you know, and they're not always that obvious, but you know, there's definitely things to be done if you're really paying attention.

The player prompts or sometimes I think speaking that way more obvious sometimes than the sider total. When you see an obvious game plan like that, yeah, unveil, then yeah, you can kind of you can take advantage of that for sure with the player props.

Yeah, no, absolutely.

And it's funny you guys talking about the West Virginia game, but one of the really good bets that I've had, and I haven't had a lot of them here in Vegas because there's so many The apps are just incredibly horrible here and we won't go into that, but the West Virginia game, they did nothing on offense the last two minutes. I had the under right before that flurry, and I was so angry. And then at halftime they put up under fourteen and a half third quarter because the original game line was like sixty four or something, right, and I'm like.

Did you watch this first half?

There was no scoring, right, And so I bet under fourteen and a half third quarter, and it was about as easy, breezy a win as you can get. But that's another scenario where if the score is not indicative of how it was played, you can really take advantage of it, because the score at halftime of that game was not really that low, even though it really played like an incredibly low game.

Yeah, the whole time, by way, Lamar Jackson needed to throw one more pass every time he dropped back.

Todd is screaming throw the ball. People are like, what is he?

Hell is wrong with it?

Because it was such a good bet and to lose because he's just not throwing the ball.

Just throw the ball away.

Tom, Would you like to tell people what you would do with the Eugenics commercial with Frank Thomas and Duke Fluti to improve that commercial? Yeah?

Sure, I mean we were watching the Eugenics commercial. I don't know if you guys know it, but at the at the end, uh, Frank Thomas says something like, well, and she's gonna like it too. It's it's some commercial for like testosterone or what is that.

It's something like, you know, some pseudo biagricaz So.

Frank Thomas looks into the camera and gives you a little wink because he's like, and she's gonna like it too. And so I turned to Gilly and I said, well, what if you're a power bottom he like it too. I mean, I'm not I mean, I'm not saying that, you know, I have anything to do with that, but I was just curious.

It's a great Saturday live schedule. Todd shows up all slot.

I don't mean to be disagreeable, but the power bottoms out.

There might appreciate it too.

Man.

I was telling Gill earlier that the actors in that commercial, like with Frank Thomas and Fluty Is, he did this weird ass like insurance commercial where he's like reading a fairy tale to like some little girl to bed, and like they never make it clear during the commercial that like he's supposed to be her father. You're like, who's this random dude from an insurance somebody like that reading a story to this poor girl that's obviously been kidnapped. Will Will is just way too much into commercials.

Will is so sweating this right now. If SMU ten to seven Boston College seventeen points, Will's got the under twenty three and a half and half SMU, And by the way, please don't call it out before we see it. Sixteen seconds left, SMU has second and one at the BC What is it the five yard line? Yeah, five six yard line. So he needs to keep them out out of the end zone. Here needs keeping out of the zone. This is again. When you hear this on a podcast, you'd be like, why are you guys talking about some game that's happening at the road time? Wait, what's the betting again? Under under twenty three and a half? He's got first half.

If we're talking favorite commercials right now, can we talk about the Who's the Girl? Ellie Duncan where she's watching the girl bet at homecoming and she's peeping on her phone and she says, are you are you betting against the home team at homecoming?

The acting is bad, The scenario is a stretch. It's that whole thing is just odd.

It's forgetting the one bet. The one guy in it though, is so me. The guy was like, you know, Timrodi or whatever, where was the infight? Like I killed weddings? Like I crushed weddings.

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All right, best bets, Kelly, you're the guests. We start with you, all.

Right, one side here right, that's where I'm sign Okay, best bets. I'm gonna go because this number has come back down. Ravens minus three and a little juice and a little juice against the Dolphins coming back. This is obviously the Ravens still playing uh for that number one seed Dolphins. As we talked about often, the bully ball they they escape with a win against the Cowboys, prove it to me again, go on the road and get it done against the Ravens. I know that was a monster, monster game for the Ravens last week coming back home though, playing in Baltimore. We haven't seen it too many times this year where they've really been able to put together these incredible games back to back. I like them though, just laying a field, I think when you're talking, maybe over three and a half would be shocked if this game is semi close. But I do like the Ravens and a big, big, big time AFC matchup this weekend.

Is it three?

Guys?

Is that it is back to three? A lot of places?

You got three? I got a lot of all right, three? It is three? It is where he's he.

Were also checking on your lines, Kelly. We never take it. We never believe anybody with their lines.

Yeah, no that I don't know why, but that number has come back. I mean you've got Jalen Wattles questionable right now. There's I mean there's some injury concerns on the Dolphins side as well. But that number was three and a half. You know what we betted after on guessing lines? It was uh or when they reopened it on you know, like Tuesday afternoon because all the books, uh, you know, good good, good thing. All the odds makers got like two days.

Off around for Christmas. Back to three.

It's back to three. A lot of places. Now I have decided if that's one of mine.

Too, Uh, Todd, your next? What do you got?

First of all?

Who's playing quarterback for the Jaguars. I know I asked that every week.

We don't know yet, do we? We do not know it yet, although I saw.

I believe Doug Peterson spoke today that Trevor Lawrence is. It sounds like he's gonna try to give it a go and he has full support of the Jags. Trevor Lawrence refuses to miss a game.

Yeah, okay, so forget I'm done with the Jaguars. If I've had one horrible take this year, it's that the Jaguars are better than people think they are, and they're really not. They just stay and I'm just tired of them.

I saved you from that last week.

What you say I saved you from that pick last week?

Yeah? He did. Did.

Gilly saved me from that pick because of the whole quarterback situation.

But the the uh.

I'm just tired of that team. It's just ridiculous. I mean, they have such variants. They can play so bad, they can play so good. They really should have won that Ravens game where they were down inside the ten about fourteen hundred times. Anyways, my first pick, I'm just gonna go. Look, I'm just I know I'm sitting here in Las Vegas, but I'm gonna go downa I'm gonna go Doyna, Seattle on and I'm gonna say, look, Mason Rudolph and all that I did, Rudolf, I say Christmas, Hey, we're gonna do it. It's Rudolph and we're gonna blow people out on Christmas.

And that's what they did.

That's what they did.

You gotta go down Aaron and you know, next to the Algany River, and you see them blow people at and you're just like, wow, this Tomlin guy, sure he might have got a couple of games. He throws a Mason Rudolph and it's Rudolf the red Nose Reindeer in that, and all of a sudden, you's got yourself a nice big win for the Pittsburgh Stares. But come on, I don't buy it. I don't buy it. You know, I've been watching Pittsburgh store games for quite a while. Drive down the river sometimes I get to park for free down there. The Pittsburgh Stugglers are not a good football team. And now you're going to ask this football team with Mason Rudolph. You're not fooling me. Mason Rudolph, You're not good. You couldn't beat out that other guy. What's that guy from the beer Trubesky? He's horrible Duck. I don't buy it. I don't buy Mason Rudolph in this spot. Now, what is it three or three and a half? What are you guys giving me for the seat?

Three and a half?

Okay, fine, I'll take that. I'm so confident in my stores, not being able to do anything down here. I'm gonna take this. The Seattle Seahawks minus the three and a half. I don't buy this. Pittsburgh resurgence one game against Cincinnati.

Give me a break.

Now, you're gonna ask this team that stinks to go on the road and stay within three and a half of a legitimate Seattle team. I'm not saying they're great. I'm not saying they're They're there, they're world beaters and nothing. But come on, Mason Rudolph, now on the road. You're back in Mason Rudolph on the road. No, no, thank you. Seattle minus three and a half.

I like it, Todd. I bet at Seattle at three. I had to check the numbers process here of what was okay to play, because I think I would have gone with Seattle over Baltimore if Seattle was three.

So I like it done. I don't know how much that matters. He makes sense.

Well, have you ever seen Luca Garza and Mason Rudolph it's the same location together, because I'm starting to think that they're the same fricking person.

That's a good call.

Have you ever seen SMU in Boston College combined for twenty one.

Points three minutes of a game. I'm going to go under now. Yeah, I'm going on.

I'll just trying to put a smile on the little face.

Jilly asked me before if I want to go under it, and I was like, I don't want to get whipsawd because they're still.

A little scoring.

You're smart. I'm going to get whipsod Willie. By the way, did you tell that guy, by the way, it's so great to have you here because there's no technical difficulties and you can speak and and according to that one guy, I don't interrupt you four or five times in the same thing. Did you tell that guys because of technical issues?

No?

IM, what the truth was that Gilly doesn't respect people from the East Coast.

It's always tough in this situation though.

That's a good point.

You get the one guy on Skype who gets like boxed out and you feel bad about it.

Like, yeah, all right, Willy, what do you got? What's your first I'm going.

To go back to the well with the Atlanta Falcons getting the three.

I believe I am getting the three.

Right you?

Yeah, you're getting three?

I get it.

Yeah, I just three.

Toad has been on this. I think we've all been on this. Heiniekey is significantly better than Ridder. One of the more perplexing things all year has been this loyalty to Ridder, who they took a stab at a mid round pick, and they've stuck with him, almost defiance out of Arthur Smith, just because people wanted to do something He's He's not doing it.

Heineck. He's not great, but he's serviceable.

I like the skill players for Atlanta Bjon Robinson and Pitts in London. I like the defense. Atlanta's good against the run. To me, this is a low scoring coin flip kind of game. I'll take the three. I'll stick with my boy Heinikey Atlanta Falcons plus the three.

All right, follow up question on this game for everybody, I guess, but for Will specifically, Weather's looking maybe potentially shaky in that game. I know the Falcons are a dome team, but the way they play, I almost feel like that's almost better for them. Like you're gonna try to run the ball and play good defense. That's how they're gonna win.

Anyways, Yeah, they play like a service academy. What was the question though, that wasn't a followup question.

That was a follow up state.

Does the weather concern you at all?

Good point that.

You're like one of these sideline reporters that it goes to the player after the game.

That was a good win. What happened? No talk about times the phrase where it's just the yeah, talk about it?

Talk about talking about that's such an annoying phrase.

Its like journalism one oh one. You're not supposed to do. It's like the first thing they ran on the board. Don't ever say.

This, by the way, Dodd. I also in my account, I also bought the three and a half down to three. I have a bet on the Seahawks at three. So I'm with Kelly that had that been three, that would be one of mine.

I just took under thirty three and a half at the end of the third quarter of Boston College. That's plus one point fifteen, all right, So let's go for uh.

By the way, I would love it, it was under thirty three and a half. I'm with you because I got under forty one, which any.

Good listeners can tail along when they least.

That's exactly right, all right, I uh, I get a snake here my number one play. And this goes back to guessing lines, which has been the best instinct all year on these I'm on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and I bet it at a worst number that it exists. Now Tampa Bay is below the three. They're two and a half point favorites hosting the New Orleans Saints. I don't get this. I have zero.

I don't say zero respect for the Saints, I just have.

I just feel like there's some residual feeling that the Saints are actually good at football, and there's some residual feeling that Tampa Bay is not, when in fact, Baker Mayfield has been just shy of spectacular in some of these games.

He had a perfect passer rating a couple of weeks ago. Todd Wright, who who hosts the show to All Night with Todd Wright famously at ESPN as a frequent guest, not so much of these days, but It's been a guest on a numbers game many many times. Was giving me a little tidbit here before the show, which is that you know a lot of people who are not Tampa focused will forget that Mike Evans. Well, maybe this is a prop bet. Mike Evans needs fourteen points to become the Bucks' career leader in scoring, potentially his last regular season home game, no contract beyond the season, and the Bucks are well aware and prepared for it. He'd bet Evans over on catches or yards any touchdown, over on total touchdowns, etc. Evans hates the Saints, he says, so he will be fired up. I love Tampa Bay in this game. I think they're going to knock the Saints out of the division race and they're going to solidify their position in the NFC South.

I like Tampa Bay minus the two.

And a half.

I guessed four on that line on guessing line, So it's a bet for me on Tampa Bay. That's my number one. My number two is Baltimore. I'm with Kelly. I can't believe this is down to three against the Dolphins, and I had the Dolphins last week against the Cowboys. But that's a different matchup than this one. I think this is a sort of kryptonite game for the Dolphins. I think the Ravens defense unlike the Cowboys, which which was a bit of a Matt Brown does a great job of describing the Cowboys defense, which again is people think of them as generating a lot of pass rush, but it's really only Micah Parsons.

Well.

The Ravens are just solid everywhere, and I think against the Niners, Todd brought up the Zay Flowers thing. They really correctly found something there, which is we don't have Keaton Mitchell anymore. Who is the who can we go to that is explosive? Zay Flowers is the answer. I think the Ravens are going to cover the three now that it's down to three. It's a play for me the Ravens, who I believe are still the second best team in football despite their thrashing of the Niners. To me, I don't think that you're gonna get a duplicate game of that. If that's a Super Bowl, I don't think it's a big step out on a limb that I'm gonna say brock Per He's probably not going to throw four picks but the gap between one and two certainly has narrowed in my eyes. But I love the Ravens here minus three against the Dolphins, who I like. But you know, Kelly and I do power rankings every week, they're fourth, fifth, sixth, somewhere in that they're they're they're a bully team that got their best win of the year against the Cowboys, where that's a bully Bowl. As long as it's only three, which it is, I'm taking the Ravens.

I will add Gill if you like that, and I agree with with that pick. There's another thing you should be betting, because I forgot.

To mention this on a numbers game yesterday. I bet this, say yesterday.

Plus two eighty at Fanatics, plus two sixty five at DraftKings the Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East were assuming and you know what they say about assuming Gill. But let's just say Bills beat the Patriots, and like you guys think the Ravens beat the Dolphins.

That's an AFC title game. Next week.

You're sitting there with plus two eighty plus two seventy or so in your pocket.

Isn't that a bet you kind of have to make? If you think the Ravens are gonna win.

Yes, absolutely, and then that division very much is still do good call.

So why'd you bring that up after Gil brought up the bet? Not me, though I don't get to win any money.

I'm morning after this first half loss. My head's off fine out.

I could tell he was rattled.

That's call you right, that is kind of a must ad. I mean, we brought that up on a numbers game many times.

It's like the Bills are still very much live to win this division. Miami's schedule is tough with the Ravens here and the Bills game afterwards, though it is in Miami, so they do have that going for them. But yeah, the Bills are live still to win the division. Ravens still have not secured their division or the number one seed. They will do both with a win here against the Dolphins. Will your second one?

Oh?

Speaking of the Bills, the aforementioned Buffalo Bills, I'll wait thirteen and a half here. When you're laying double DIGITU Warrior, are they gonna be focused or they gonna be motivated? McDermott has an easy job getting his team's attention because they've almost lost his big favorites last week against the Chargers, and they already lost to the Patriots early in the year, so that he can say to his team, hey, dumbasses, you guys can lose this game because look that they've already lost to this team and they were on the brink last week.

So before that game, before that lost to the Patriots, they have done very well.

The Bills have done very well against the Patriots. There was that weird win game. I know you remember Gill a couple years ago on Monday Night Football. But since then, the Bills have killed them. They have Patriots have a tough time defending Allen. To me, this is a scenario where the Bills get a big lead and the Patriots are just not built to come from behind. If this is you know, ten nothing fourteen three early Patriots thrown every down, this could be a seventeen to twenty plus point victory for the Bills. So I think the Bills are a little more focused, little extra reft. Patriots got their win. I'll lay the thirteen and a half with the Buffalo Bills.

Thirteen.

We're gonna give you the half point because it's okay, it's actually thirteen.

I remember it well will because I was violently disagreed with by somebody about the nature of the wins in that game, as I recall.

Right, yes, I'm remembering that now, Yes, and was like a weird nine to seven or ten to nine game. Nobody threw the ball and then Patriots warn It was like, wow, look at what the Patriots are doing.

But since then, I mean, the Bills have just killed.

Disagreed with you someone violently that the key is violently. I was told it was violently I had yesterday.

No, Oh my god, let me just tell you something about Todd. I brought some some pain. I wasn't like, way out of mark. I mean he got all of that one.

It was out of here, truly disgusting, truly disgusting that Todd is taking a medication of sorts. And and he burped and literally we were sitting at a bar. Every one of us fell to the floor like.

It was just let's put it this way.

It was a meatball over the middle, Kelly, and they said that ball's hit really well, that might cirt. And I had my mouth opened. I felt that for him, that was a horrible thing.

Dodd is uncontrollably laughing for like this horrible thanks for bringing up Oh god, all right, Dodd, what are you at? Let's number two?

I mean I have that same Atlanta thing that Willie said down. You know, you know how I love Taylor Heineke versus the Ritter guy, but you know, just to be you know, different, so that we don't have the same play like we did even though we both won that one last week. I'm gonna go with over thirty eight in that same ball game.

Is that what you guys have? Thirty eight or thirty seven and a half?

Let me say which game?

Which game?

The Bears game, there's gonna be weather.

Seven and a half thirty mainly thirty eight.

It's thirty eight. What's the weather situation?

He said?

There was There was some weather, Kelly.

It was looking worse. It was looking worse yesterday. I mean just a look wind and rain. It looks like it's it looks like it's lightning up.

Shouldn't you check the weather before you make the pick?

Because I like to ask, Kelly is my weather guy. He's my guy.

When I have weather issues, you gotta go straight to Kelly.

Kelly.

Pressure system coming.

In from Kelly has a Doppler.

He looks like a weather guy, doesn't he.

The Dallas rains the I mean, look at that distinguished beard he's got.

I mean, the guy got the newsman hare, that's for sure. Yeah, it's big, it's puffy.

I mean, I'm a little I guess I'm a little concerned about the weather. But you know what I'm just gonna say. Over there, here's the thing. Bears have been moving the ball on people. Okay, this Justin Fields hate. We were talking about this yesterday. This Justin Field is a pretty decent quarterback. I said, he's gonna get better and better. He he can throw the ball. Comet and him have this like symbiosis. Comet, by the way, goes over three and a half catches every single week, and I've had a number of the weeks. This last week, I found a way to lose it, even though I liked it.

Over again, he got hurt.

But the the he still had four catches in the first half. I mean, they throw to him so much and he's open and DJ Moore is open. The Bears have found something on offense that they're not a drag team. They can move the football. Did not practice yesterday Okay, well Comet's out. But either way, I still think the Bears can still move the football, and I think that Atlanta with Heineke has found something. I just think they're a better football team on offense with Heinike than with Ritter. They everybody talks about all the talented guys they have Beejen Robbinson and this guy Kyle, all these guys with Heineke that he can get them the ball. I mean he was moving the ball and the Colts pretty much all day. You know, thirty eight it's not that high a number.

Give me the over.

Thirty eight in that game and we'll hope for a little bit of points.

Oh.

Also, by the way, I don't know if you guys have seen this. Fields goes back to pass a lot of times. If no one's on, he just takes off. You can't stop him.

He is I was saying this this morning on a numbers game. It's it's incredible. How like the Bears are debating, Oh, do we keep Justin Fields or do we go different direction? If they if they go a different direction, they are idiots, insane idiots.

I would take Justin Fields on the skins at a hard Steelers would.

Take Justin Fields, Oh, bro, I don't have to pay him, though you're gonna have to pay him.

Let's talk about the money. I'm not I'm saying figuratively will. I'm saying like he'd be he'd be so much better than Sam Howell, and like they'd be so much better off with him. What I want the Skins to do now is draft Jayden Daniels with a third pick in the draft. I'm not advocating for that. What I'm saying is, would Justin Fields have improved the Washington Commanders markedly?

No doubt Steelers. Could you imagine Steelers Justin Fields? They'd be legit, Yes, they would be legit.

Justin Fields makes plays with the exception of Lamar Jackson, nobody else in the.

Leagues makes he does.

But he's like, he's still a young guy, so I think he's only gonna get better and better.

We're not saying he's an elite quarterback. We're just saying he's maybe getting slightly above average and moving in the right direction.

Matt Matt brow And says this best. We were talking about a little this morning too. Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow have completely fucked people's expectations of what they can get into draft, right, because those guys are such outliers. Maybe, like I'm just thinking, besides those two and maybe Tua, who would I have rather drafted in the last five years than Justin Fields?

Browning Magel leaps some mind. That's exactly right.

I can't.

But to just prove your point of the uncertainty the draft, my answer would be Rock Party, which just shows you how absurd all of this.

It's all in in exact, Sime.

That white guy from USC who's the quarterback, He's way better than Caleb Williams.

He's going up and.

Down the field.

Bro.

That's exactly what I said last time. I'm like, how good is Caleb Williams.

After we saw this guy Miller Moss throw for six touchdowns a three hundred and seventy two yards in the Holiday Bowl. You're right, Brock Purty. I And then I got into a debate with my buddy, my Skins buddy buddies yesterday where they're like, oh, one of one was like.

Oh we got a draft.

Drake May. Fuck Drake May. He's exactly who Sam Howell is. Get Jade and Daniels getting your rate at which you will succeed with a.

Mobile quarterback is so much higher than you can with a pocket passer. You're not drafting Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow. You're just not either outliers. And yet they've completely now.

Everyone's oh, Justin Fields, he's so bad.

Okay, you have that opinion of Justin Fields. It's not that bad. He's not that bad. He's quite good.

As a matter of fact, I think the exact same thing. But then I see eight wins, like eight career wins, and like that is the one thing that it's just I understand why there's questions. That's the one thing why I get it from why we always have the national conversation of whether he's the future or not.

He's also on the Bears.

No, I hear you, right, it's not. But the counter to that is who did c. J. Stroud have around him? And he made him all great? Is a pretty good guy, right, But like one before the season was like, oh Nico Collin tank Dell, I mean he's surrounded. No one said that.

I mean those are like that, And that's part of what the greats often do, right, Like they bring guys to a level that would have never gotten.

There without him, right or maybe not so.

But you know those names now that we never knew at the beginning of this.

S's why I don't accept that same excuse for Bryce Young, Right, It's like, well, who did C. J. Stroud have no?

Right?

Yeah? Yeah, yep.

And again we're not saying Justin Fields is amazing, feels amazing.

I'm just saying he's he is better than most who have been drafted, sure in the last five years. What did you say? Well, Fields has a little.

Victims, so like there is, there's definitely And I think that's what you're talking about with Washington too, right, Like, if you want to, you know, jump start a franchise a bit, you get a mobile quarterback like that. I mean, he can make plays all by himself. He doesn't need writes any other help from from a lineman, running backs, wide receivers like to at least get a jumpstart to a building around that guy can make plays all on his own. So that's what you a love about.

How do we get on this again?

I took, I don't really know, Kelly. You got two here, I got two here all right? No NBA picks and I can go no golf, I can go. I can go. Team totals. Team totals not a constitution.

The official constitution of the Mega pip State.

I didn't. I didn't get this.

According to John Adams, it states that you can make a side or a total pick traditional. We're dealing with a traditional audience who has not yet figured out all this other stuff that's going on.

Team team totals in a two team moneyline parlay. The audience hasn't figured out.

We can't do that.

Okay, okay, all right, straight side?

Then I can't take mchil bridges though you does this podcast sneak up on you? They had to come up with a pick you.

No, I mean I have plenty of picks, plenty of It's like.

It's like the five circ entries.

I got plenty of bets, and I don't even fit the parameters, the stringent constant, stringent constitution. All right, fine, give me the Cowboys under six. It's five and a half now, pretty much, I'll take. I'll do a Cowboys.

Side Cowboys minus five and a half. Yeah, and why do you want that?

For those wondering the parlay I was gonna throw out, there was Cowboys Colt money line parlay, but yeah, the Constitution requires for an explanation. Cowboys coming back home after the brutal road trip. We know how much better they've played at home. I don't think the Lions are going to be completely flat, but I think this is I think this is one of those games that we talk about with the Cowboys sometimes where the Lions are outclassed by the Boys. I think this line is a little lofty. I think after the past couple weeks, I was expecting to see this more like Cowboys four something like that.

That.

So I've played it differently, but I still still think under six here, I'd be willing to lay. It's probably gonna be a circuit contest pick for me this week. Them coming home, I expect big, big points. We've seen them put up big points. I know there's a lot of sharp money on the over in this game. Yes, I think you're gonna see points from both sides. There might still be some questions about this Dallas. This Dallas defense, I think it's Dallas offense though, comes back home clicks right away. You're gonna see big games out of Dak Prescott, Ceede Lamb for sure.

Do you bet the Cowboys team total over? Probably in the in the neighborhood at thirty.

Ish, i'd probably, Yeah, I would, I would in game over. I lean that way too, even at fifty three and a half? Is what it's up to?

Dallas seven and oh straight up at home three and five on the road.

What was that I do?

Oh?

Some machine around this, I don't know. Worse than that because the music turned off. The music wouldn't turn off otherwise, fire alarm during the megapot? Did you do something tough.

The entire place?

Hell, I'm sorry, whatever, I have a bad eating disorder. I'm sorry.

Seemed like a good opportunity to make that joke. I'm with you, Kelly that uh I'll probably be on Dallas and the contest as my fourth or pick. I'm with you there.

Yeah, yeah, it's uh yeah. The number, I understand it's a little it's a little high. But now that it's come down under six lions taking money, it's four and a half here at circa right now, I don't really get that. Yeah, give me, I'll go Colts three and a half. I'll go Colts three and a half. I don't try. I don't trust this, uh, this Raiders team after that, I mean, I'm trusting them all year.

They've won more games I far expected to.

After that game last week where they where they beat the Chiefs like that was, I mean, that was their game for the season, right, I don't really I don't really like this Colts team all that much. But you're talking about they're coming back home. You're getting the Raiders. They're still in the heavily in the playoff mix. Indianapolis is Raiders. I don't really think they have that same vibe going on. Yes, I understand they still have a chance to make the playoffs. I think it's a different vibe going on in that building right now though, going into Indianapolis, I think it's gonna be a tough place to go in and pick up a win this weekend.

Playoffs. We're talking about playoffs. We're not talking about practice. We're talking about playoffs.

I'm totally telling coach Pierce that you're betting against them if I see him back at the house. Yeah, yeah, actually, please, don't are you kidding me? Where is that stat? That Aidan O'Connell stat might be the most incredible stat of the entire football season. He completed nine forward passes in that game, all of them. Every one of those nine was on the Raiders first quarter drive where they went up three to nothing. He never completed another pass the rest of the game. And I know, Todd, You're like, well, they didn't have to, they were they got those two defensive touches. Yes, But like if I went through the annals of the National Football League, when was the last time a quarterback never completed a pass after the first quarter?

Well, Don in eighties we had a guy named Mark Malone for quarterback for the Stillers and he didn't complete many passes his whole career. He got to the AFC Championship one year he didn't. Then the Dolphins crushed us. Yeah, I mean, and then you talk about that like before the game.

Okay, yes, he had that the massive game against the Chargers where like the Chargers had just quit on the entire season, and like other than that, like he's been trash, Like he's been trash.

I don't.

I don't believe in Aidan O'Connell at all, as much as I might not love Gardner minshew, I think that the Colts have a sizable advantage in that game.

This week that I like that one too, and actually considered that one.

You know, I don't, I don't.

The Raiders are come on, it's it's it's ridiculous.

It's Steelers FA.

Yeah, they're fake good teams, fake good team exactly.

I'm going to take a similar situation with that. I'm going to go under forty four and a half in the Chiefs against the Bengals. To me, there's some I mean, I've been saying this all year, this one. Look, I've gotten the Jacksonville thing, right, I was right about the Chiefs.

The Chiefs, Oh chiefs. Whoa that was not.

A birth either?

That not a b Two different types of fire?

Yeah, what was the first one?

Yeah?

I don't know, Like it's one like an anthra alarm or something.

We should be more concerned about our cars better.

You know what?

That reminds me of that that's that's the sound they used to have when I want to tell you, anyways.

What scot Scott missiles game? Yeah?

The uh, the uh.

I was in the bathroom one time reading a Sampress article on sports I wasted nineteen ninety one circa or circa nineteen ninety one, anyways, And then the scot missiles siren went on.

Where were you, Teval?

Yeah, I was in rabbinical seminary in another life.

I was reading his Sampress article.

By the way, I was reading because you could never take the sports out of me, even when I was like super Jew of all Jews, you know.

And there was this other kid.

I get so sad hearing this. It's it's such child abuse.

It is child But there was another guy named Jeremy Newman. It was this really nice guy from Chicago. He literally could tell you a real super religious Jew like this also in rabbinical summary. He could literally tell you could go, you go, Jeremy May twenty second, nineteen eighty three, you go, oh well, Trout pitched for the Cubs and they won four to two on a Homer By.

It was unbelievable.

And so you know, there was a lot of people even in theirbinical seminary, you know there's someone that we're into the sports. But uh, anyways, yeah, that was that was I do remember. I was, you know, in the bathroom reading a Sampress article in Sports Illustrated and the SCUD missile sirens went off. This was in another time of craziness over there was amazing.

All those scud missiles landed, not a single human was cool.

The technology wasn't there yet. Freed the rockets.

Anyways, enough about the geopolitical world. I'm going to go and talk about the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs. By the way, could Sam you maybe get a stop here, I wouldn't mind it. The Kansas City Chiefs are not a good offensive football team. I know we've all watched the Kansas City Chiefs. Oh my god, my hoes, and they can't be stopped. They're amazing. They're not that team anymore, folks. The receivers are horrendous. How many times does this guy go back to past? Now we're not watching the all twenty two, but I have a feeling by watching my home standing behind the line and just sitting there and patting the ball and going over here. It's amazing. There's nobody open. And here's the funny part. When there is somebody open, they dropped the ball. Anyways, so what the The Chiefs are just not good on off it. And by the way, Kelsey, I don't know what happened to him, but the last time I dated, you know, a huge pop star. You know, I did have offensive woes, so you know it was it was me and Rihanna.

But that was a whole nother thing.

I don't even talk about it, you know, at this time, oh wow, this is when she was super hot. Anyways, the point is the Chiefs are not good on offense. Okay, they're just not. They're pretty good on defense. I mean, Adian O'Connell didn't get any completions for the whole game, right except for the first quarter. So I think they're pretty good on the mut Stags and we got fall down, fall down, go down, go down. There you go, Okay, we have these I have under thirty three and a half at the end of the third Quarterbustle College and Gilly has under for the game, so we all were hoping for a turnover.

We got it.

Anyways, the point is the Chiefs are good on defense. They're not good on offense. I think we can all agree on that. And the Cincinnati Bengals I don't like them on defense at all anymore. But and Browning Nagle has been you know better and all that. I'm sorry, not Browning Nagel, the quarterback Browning for the Bengals, says Jack Browning Browningagle, The point is, the point is that Cincinnati, Cincinnati is just a block team. The Chiefs are defensive team. It's forty four and a half. What's the weather like in Kansas City, Kelly, it can't be good. Give me some Doppler in Kansas City because I have a feeling this thing's going under.

Under.

Forty four and a half in Kansas City is my third pick. Unless the weather is very different.

That we have to do it for the beginning again, that we have to rehear. You do the whole thing again.

Oh, you're fine. It's looking like a beautiful thirty for.

Degrees thirty four, you have to go under not.

Much precipitation only ten mile an hour wins.

So, Kell, we have some background and meteorology that we don't know about that I don't know about it.

I've worked at a little lot of this room for like ten years, so no, not at all. But I've been around, been around a lot of weather guys.

Did you in Florida?

Did they?

Did the weather folks ever use the term humature? No, we had that in DC. Humature Kelly is.

Also good if you have like a Japanese Bowl like the Wasabi Bowl. You can ask him like, well, what are the over unders and Wassabi bowls? Yeah, and he'll tell you right away, you know.

Todd, Todd making the making a horrible mistake earlier on the numbers came about.

That it was Sabbi because it's a Wassabi.

What bull?

It's a Sabi Fenway bull, Fenway pack.

Oh, it's Fenway Parking. Wasabi over the does have to do with Fenway Park. That's a sponsor, Kelly.

You want to tell it's some kind of cloud technology company, Todd.

Oh is it?

Yeah?

I thought it had to do with Japanese.

Me too, Me too, me too? But it's not like, uh, we we did. We did a instead of college guessing lines, we did Kelly guess with the sponsor. This was one of But yeah, like Todd, I always just assume same thing too. Like have you've seen like the commercials for like pistachios or like avocado and you're like, wait, how is there just like an avocado commercial? Like what does that mean? Like who owns what's the business? Right? Right?

Like a milk commercial or that.

Yeah, I think.

It's who make that stuff?

I mean it must be. But like I had the same reaction when I saw it with Sabby Bull Like I was just assumed it. Wasp was how about the guy that owns nuts dot com if you've seen that commercial guys like nuts dock.

I was like, how did you get that?

U r L. That's amazing nuts dot com and all they do is sell nuts.

Not what you're thinking.

There's definitely there's definitely the guy that don't look at Frank.

Thomas we're talking about. I was thinking, the best.

Part of that is you just stepping in there like, I don't mean to be disagreeable.

Look, Frank, I don't mean to be disagreeable at all.

But you know, he thought he was delivering his mic drop line, Hey Frank, I don't want to be disagreeable, all right. I have a feeling Will and I have the same final pick. Will, what do you got?

This isn't my pick? I just realized that we hadn't talked about Thursday night football.

I don't have a pick on that supposed to I forgot about the football.

Sorry about the Jets are playing the Browns and in a very non descriptive ball game. Who's playing quarterback for the Jets.

This week it will be Trevor will be Trevors Brennan Nagel is not available, Trevor Simeon.

Way, the Jets are better with Trevor Sidy Simeon. Just between me and you, Trevor Simeon is not good. But if you're gonna get a guy who's like just like a you know, serviceable.

Backup, Trevor Simon against Washington averaged three point three yards downfield per pass and he only completed fifty five percent of them.

But that's better than their usual quarterbacks, right, Zach Wilson, I mean.

I'll go hi. How about higher floor, lower ceiling, Xach? How about how about that fact that neither neither of the starting kickers. Maybe playing Dustin Hopkins is not for the Browns. Riley Patterson will be Greg sirline is questionable with quadriceps injury. If he can't go, it's Austin Cybert formerly a univers They have.

A kicker or not because last week they were not doing a kicker.

Well they yes, Riley Patterson was signed to be the kicker because apparently the punter cannot kick a thirty yard field goal.

Oh okay, so yeah, So they will.

So they were doing that go for two things. That was something the whole time.

It's very important to know that for endgame if if you're watching the game, you're like, what in the world are they doing going for at the end of the half too, they went for and got intercepted in the end zone, because if they didn't.

Like when these teams have no kicker, I like them better with no kicker too. Takes the bad decisions out of their hands.

It makes you, it makes you think for a second, You're like, you know, football should be this way. It's like the is it Larry David or Jerry Seinfeld? I can't remember who says kickers should be abolish to go. I think it's Larry David, who's like, yeah, he goes.

He goes.

What does it have to do with the sport?

Like what who determined that that game should be decided by kicking?

You know?

It's very true. But finishing the thing about the it's a seven and a half point spread tonight between Cleveland and the Jets. Cleveland can clinch a playoff berth with a win. And I was saying on the show this morning, I had the Raiders plus ten against the Chiefs. Last week, I had the Patriots plus seven against the Broncos. They were low totals forty and thirty six, respectively. Do I have the same instinct about the Jets getting seven and a half at a thirty five total? And the answer is no, I have no play in this game today. You nothing.

I don't want to play this game.

Yeah, I bet what'd you get? Cleveland?

Cleveland is a team total, third quarter team total.

No, I did lay. I laid six on the opener with the Browns, and then I did tie.

Them into a teaser this week.

I have Browns teased with the Packers on Sunday Night Football.

When was it six?

Uh?

It opened six? Six and a half?

Oh wow, I have three and a half in pocket. I just like saying in pocket, in pocket, three and a half in pocket.

The best part is when you said installed as a six BOYD favorite, because you know you can't bet it unless they install it first.

I like to install a favorite.

Yeah.

It's one thing if you have a favorite, like by six, But if you install the same favorite, that's a whole lot of thing.

Will what you got I'm gonna I think I was torn between taking the Cardinals. I'm going to go actually over fifty three and a half Cowboys Lions. Cowboys are going to get their thirty five plus points at home pretty much against anybody. I'm probably gonna bet the team total over. It's twenty eight and a half. That looks reasonable. Detroit's just not going to the secondary. Detroit's not built to stop them. Detroit Dallas has been humbled here the last couple of weeks. I think this is a good matchup for them to get back on track, and I think Detroit will get their points too, especially if the Dallas get to lead golf.

Indoors in garbage time.

To me, this is like a thirty four to twenty four type of games. So I will go over the fifty three and a half Cowboys Lions.

All right, I am going to take the Cardinals, which is where I thought you were going. I'm taking the Cardinals. I bet this. By the way, the bets that I've made actually in the betting account already are the race evans. I got it in a worse number than three when I bet it. I got it at four.

I had in pocket one.

I got the Cardinals plus eleven. I bet the Seahawks minus three. I bought that down to three, and I got Tampa Bay minus three and it's two and a half now, so I actually got the worst of that one. But I'm on the uh, I'm on the Cardinals here plus the points I am catching now with the Cardinals eleven and a half.

Or eleven, I see a lot of elevens. What do you see, Kelly? Cardinals?

Eleven sounds right? Eleven Cardinals?

We get Cardinals have been installed as an eleven point under mainly.

Ten and a half's out there. I'm seeing eleven.

I've seen enough eleven that we could get.

I mean, I see eleven and a half and twelve, so i'd better be eleven.

Forgot.

Let's give you a Cardinals plus eleven.

Do you wonder why he's thirty and you wonder why he's thirty two and fifteen?

Okay, there, let's be fair. We you know he's had an amazing season. This doesn't happen that often. Let's give it fair.

What do it doesn't happen this often? I won last year too?

Were for an asterisk?

You did not win. First of all, you did not win. You lost.

I didn't lose. There was an asterisk involved.

What if I just hit you in the neck right because he lost win.

With an asterisk? Who were a loss with an as?

It was a loss with an ask because I had the Cincinnati Buffalo game where Deamar.

Hamlin, but he might not have won that, he might have lost it.

So that's why it's a loss with an asteris win with That's correct.

Another alarm.

By the way, according to the Megapod constitution, it states a winning percentage carries There isay no such stipulation. And fourth and twenty.

Anyway, By the way, why does the asterisk loss get more publicity than me thrashing all of you this year?

Because I that we should give you credits and you're doing it.

One second, I just defended you against Will Hill trying to be spurious against you and say that you're not good and say that you're only winning because you're getting you're getting you're getting fake lines. He's trying to say that you're only getting fake lines, and that's why you're thirty two and fifteen. Now, great that I haven't the Seahawks minus want.

Don't touch me, ten Nichols, By the way, could you go back to your mom's core Aunty ten Nichols has it at twelve. By the way, I'll take the eleven. I'll take it on the Cardinals. I just think the Eagles should not be eleven point favorites against really kind of anyone at this one. I won't say anyone, but certainly not against the Cardinals, who have been frisky. No matter who they play. Cardinals currently with the number two pick in the draft, they can't well, they could jack it up if they won. I'm trying to think if there's any draft implications. I'm not asking them to win. I'm just asking to be competitive here, which I think they will be. Philadelphia, we had Drew dinsical on Drew Dinsic is super high on Philly. Why, I don't know. I was Kelly and I were a little weirded out by that. I'm just not as high on Philly. I think that although they're going to finish the season they probably win here though they're only going to finish the season one game worse than they did last year, but they feel like they're five games worse, and I just don't think they're a true contender this year. In the postseason, they can prove me wrong. We'll see, I agree with you, and I just think Arizona Arizona was wouldn't let San Francisco run away from him, And I don't think they let Philly run away from here. So I'll take all those points, thank you very much.

Just uh, just a note on that one. Kyler did miss No, no Kyler, no doctor Bidlin is here now.

Kyler Murray did miss a practice.

Yeswer it sounds like he's got the sniffles or sniffles, he's got an illness.

How does he feel about it?

Why wouldn't they just shut him down the last two weeks? You proved your point, he's healthy. You're locked into the two pick if Carolina steals another one. I don't know the tiebreaker scenario, but if Carolina steals another pick, you're tied for the worst record. Like, why not just put him on the shelf? You don't, your whole team doesn't have to tank. You just put in Clayton tune in.

There's your tank. Why don't you just take the two losses the rest of the year and just go about your business. I don't know. Maybe they'll do that the final week. Does that make sense?

No?

Are they sticking with Kyler? Murray or are they drafted your quarterback?

Either way? Either way, why do I like, just take Jack Capital? You made your point, you got him some reps.

He didn't play in the while, all right, he looked, Okay, let's just put him on the shelf and take our pick.

That's That's the least how I would think about.

I don't know, it's different. I actually feel I feel the same way, and it's it's actually where I think Washington, I don't get what they're doing with Sam Howe because it's they better be sure that they're done.

With Sam Howe.

I think to be putting them on the bench. Uh, like, what's like what you're gonna You're gonna hurt your drafts, your draft position by putting in Brissette and play better most likely, And are you sure.

You know exactly what you have in Sam Howe. That's the only one I don't get with what they're doing. The one thing, and I think this is part of their calculus too, right. They get they have the Niners and the Cowboys to close out the season, so the likelihood of them winning either game is probably pretty slight. So they have that going for them. But but it is a weird thing because both Ron Rivera and Eric Bienime, you would figure and all these guys are gonna be gone it's new ownership. So I really do wonder if it's new ownership saying, well, let's see what we have in Jacoby Brissett before we decide. I mean, I'm just I'm just guessing. Yeah.

To Will's point, I just think everybody knows, right, like Kyler Murray, there's no more like are we having questions about like really how good he is or what he can be or what he can't is Kyler Murray thing is weird? We know what he is, right, That's what I'm saying. Like, so I think Will's right, like why the hell you throwing him out there to potentially like rip up a knee or something like that and then set you back even further.

Well, and then Jacoba' god forbid win another game? Like why another game? Just get out of here?

And the Jacoby Brisette thing that I just talked about falls, The logic of that falls because they're probably Jacoby Brisset's probably not going to play for Washington next year. Also can't imagine anyone, So I mean, I don't know. I don't know what it is other than hey, other than oh hey, look Terry McLaurin actually plays for US.

Now I need another one Worth pointing out the same thing with New York, right, Like, Okay, DeVito sucks, great, we're back, Like we've swung back that way. Why the hell you starting Toron Taylor? You're gonna go out there and mess around and win a game or two.

Accidentally, bro my alternate season win to lunder on them is like the fact that I have to sweat this at all. I know, it's wild, ridiculous and a half.

If that gets back to six, oh god, I think I might have to bet it this that rams Giants. It's swung back because it was like there are a couple of sixes out there. So now you're telling me the markets, you're telling me there's no difference between Tommy DeVito and Torod Taylor. I think Taylor is better than I think he's way better to everybody is Trod Taylor has one superpower.

He doesn't turn the ball over. Right, Yeah, I don't know. I just feels like if you look at his career stats, it's like historical, historically good and not turning His defense versus what versus needles.

The Chargers team, the Chargers team is responsible for us getting Justin Herbert when we did because he punctured to Rod Taylor's long weak lungs.

Can't trust me, You can't play defense against a little bit of a needle. Come on.

That story, will, It's amazing, Like it needs to be retold like every year so that nobody ever forgets that. Well, because the amazing part of that story is the Chargers were on hard knocks that year and Anthony Lynn was their coach. Justin Herbert had just been drafted, and more than once during that hard knocks, Anthony Lynn never considered Justin.

Herbert for a moment. In fact, there was a moment where Justin Herbert was throwing in practice and Anthony Lynn goes, kit throws a good ball, kid throwsable and he's and there's like he's not up Torodd Taylor's money. It was never a consideration. And only because his lung got punctured did we get Justin Herbert.

Incredible, it's incredible. These guys are a practice every day seeing these guys. How can you not evaluate that guy as a talent?

Well, Anthony Lynn made some really good.

Decisions he did. It was a great decision. Actually, the end of game. I remember him being very solid. He reasoned, well thought out reason. Uh you know, I.

Don't mean to be disagreeable, Frank.

But by the way, so far, so good on your under thirty three and a half in this.

Third quarter, let's just keep grinding the foot. They're going to go do just fall down there, you go take me.

Teaser of the week, which you guys are better at than I am.

We've got three people at eleven and five. That's the guest Todd and Willser and gills Her is only at nine and seven.

Why don't you repeat the real records the second time?

Billy is thirty two fifteen and one, which is really up in And I mean, look, I'm be the first guy to say Gill's overrated. Come on, let's be honest, right, I'll be the first guy to say it's okay, you'll get me first in line.

But you have to tip your hat to the guy.

Thirty two fifteen and one is really quite outstanding.

I mean it is.

We joke, yeah, I mean, we joke around, but even with the cheating, that is yeah, yeah, I.

Mean thirty two fifteen and one.

It's it's it's eye raising.

As long as you don't as long as you don't burp in my direction, today.

We're all good.

I don't think I can eat today after what I've Kelly.

All right, for the guests record out there, I already give it out. Browns and Packers.

Yeah, wait to wait, So what are you doing here? You're going Packers plus eight?

Yeah, Packers plus eight, Browns one and a half minus one and a half.

Okay, I just one and a half.

I'm gonna do the Jags minus a half I have.

I can't. I can't get off the damn Jags. I just don't.

I just don't think they can lose that. I mean they can lose games. They're gonna lose the freaking Caroline. I mean Carolina seriously. And I'll take the Browns too. I mean, you out like the Cleveland Brownie. By the way, by the way, the Cleveland Bronnis. Let me just say, in Pittsburgh we call the Cleveland brownis the Cleveland Bronni's. You know, if Flacco doesn't throw interceptions, they might do something here. The defense is good, and if they can just not make mistakes that is.

That is why I can't back the Browns, because Flacco does have a bit of a turnover issue, Like he's had eight he's had what is it eight? Hold on, we get these.

He had a couple.

He had a couple of games where he threw well, the one game they didn't deserve to win against the Bears, he threw two interceptions inside his own forty and they should have never won that.

Seven picks and one lost fumble in four games, And one could argue, like, you know, we see the result, but like that, like winning touchdown pass to Cooper a couple of weeks ago, was just threading the needle.

He just so so he's not really good, by the.

Way, the exact same teaser Todd does Jags and Browns. Browns, I think are a great teaser play tonight. I'm not going to back them with the points, but the great teaser play and then the Jags for the same what just is exactly how you said it, Like, if you can't beat the Panthers, come on.

Get the hell out of here.

If you skis band the franchise, call that con guy the Wrath of con and tell me that that's the end of this call that con guy.

Well, I hope you boys are right.

Will Hill, sorry, step in front of you.

Apologies, Browns, and I'll just be a little different. I'll go with the Chiefs despite all their issues. They're home, they're awful lost, they should.

Be able to beat the Bengals.

You know what, though, like Angles were so bad on defense last week against Mason Rudolph and the Chiefs to have a good defense. Browning Nagle finally came back down to earth. Chief should win this game.

Is it Jake Browning or Browning Nagel.

Browning Browning Nagle.

That's gotta be a family name, right, like the kids the kid was born and like the parents were like Browning of course Browning.

Yeah.

I looked at the Chiefs Will and isn't what does it say that in my head? I'm like, I don't think I can play them.

You can't trust them. Yeah, well, you're gonna watch Mahomes go back to pass pat the ball forty times.

By the way, they had like he had like fifty four dropbacks fifty four to fifty six. They only blitzed one time, and they got to him with no blitz Twenty two of those times and then you're right.

Those other thirty two times. He just sat there and was like, there's no oh, that.

Was my good end game. Remember when I took and I took Mahomes he had thirty four yards and I need no, he had thirty five yards.

I had.

I took over forty four and a half because I was just like, every time he goes back to the past, there's no one to throw it, sooner or later, it's just gonna run. Yeah, And that was a good one.

Remember a huge it's good with mahomess here we good.

But that Mahomes he had thirty he had thirty six yards and they put it or thirty five yards. They put it at forty four and a half. And I said to you, he's run six times already because there's no one to throw to. He's gonna run one or two more times for and he got it.

Here's what happens when Todd and I are sitting next to each other. We're betting in game. I make all of my college football in games, right, and I do all my pro football. He largely doesn't listen to anything I bet, and when he does football, I largely don't listen to.

Anything key bets.

But when he does college basketball, all I do is his ship.

The way I used to be good at football too. I just you can you can mock me.

On walcking you. I'm not knocking you at all. I'm saying equal, we don't. We don't really bet necessarily with god Bets.

Oh no, because you feel you have the same a valid opinion what you do, what you do and mister thirty and fifteen. But in college basketball, yeah.

Sure, it's feel like I have the same bela.

In college basketball. He has to tip his hat to you know, he knows.

It's like what this podcast, I mean, it's the like the NFL.

Everybody's going to have their own sure you know what I mean.

The yes, when you get into other sports Nate words, Kelly Abilene Christian incarnate word, Now you have to factor in the different Jesus scenarios and in those games.

That's a big matchup.

But that's my point is like, do you know anything about Ableen? Christian incarnate word?

I learned this year Guarded word was it Texas?

Do you know about Chicago State?

No?

No, no about them? No, I do I know a little something, all right.

Ableene upset Texas a couple of years ago. There, it's like a two C fifteen two. Right, that's right, fourteen three? Maybe that was awesome?

All right?

Final two questions of each and every megapod remain the same, first of which is which is the big the big favorite most likely to lose out?

Wait? What about the one about we don't which game we don't want to do? That's the second?

Getting to it, how many times?

How many times have you done this?

You didn't say anything about the Thursday night game?

Usually that's true.

That's a good point. Okay, here are the big favorites. Who's the most likely to lose outright? Buffalo Bills are thirteen point favorites at home against the New England Patriots Jacksonville seven point six and a half. Ish Should I include that one? Well, let's find out.

There's not that many big favorites.

Eagles eleven point favorites at home against the Arizona Cardinals. Niners thirteen point favorites on the road against the Washington common Deers. Chiefs seven point favorites at home against the Bengals. One of those four you get? Oh and tonight, of course, the Browns seven and a half point favorites at home against the Jets. Who's the most likely of those to lose?

Outright, Kela bide Lawn.

Were the Jags one of those? No, I'm going, I'm going Chiefs.

I know it's the I know it's the shortest line, but yeah, I think this the problems we all expecting expect to just fix themselves, to continue to not fix themselves, and they struggle with Bengals, and if Browning actually has another good game, I think it could be a game. So yes, it's Chiefs for me, and not even close actually on.

The bad wish from I mean, I did take the Browns in my teaser, but I do think there is a scenario where mine too, where yes, if Joe Flacco starts the other team, did you watch the Bears game where I got so lucky to win that game? Yes, there is a there is a way you can play that game where Joe Flacco throws three interceptions on his own side of the field and Trevor Simeon does just enough to get you into a bad move.

And if Laka will have a terrible game, everybody will immediately shut the fuck up about him being comeback player of the year, by the.

Way, is horrible against the Bears, horrible.

Jets defense, third and dvoa against the past thirteenth against the run in you know, in addition to those eight turnovers already mentioned that, by the way, Amari Cooper questionable tonight game time decision, who's coming off by the way, heel injuries coming on the heels. If you will of a record setting performance franchise, record setting performance for yards receiving, I'm with you. That's my pick as well.

Will I'll go Browns just because it is a low total, low margin for air, little margin for air. Jets have a pretty good defense. Brown still missing a ton of guys on offense, offensive line. So like you said, all takes is a turnover, some defensive score or some field position and you could have an upset here with the Jets. I don't think it's gonna happen, but that would be the one I would pick. Plus, there's there's a revenge angle from the Hall of Fame game where the Browns beat the Jets.

Jets probably fresh in the Jet mine.

The Hall of Fame really really sits that this year.

Yeah, that was this year.

Wow.

All of Fame game Revenge Angle. It's a rent spot.

Is that the Wasabi Hall of Fame game?

We should probably we should probably mention this.

The Frank Thomas Hall of Fame.

I don't mean to be disagreeable Frank, but will he like it too? If Thursday night game tonight, then there's one Saturday that's the Lions Cowboys. Then we have ten ten What are they doing with this ten year league games?

You know what the NFL? Can I just say one thing about how why I hate the NFL? You have every streaming service. Now I've got to buy Wait a second, I have to get an Amazon. Now I've got to get the other thing. Now I got ones. I don't even know Paramount Plus. We even knew that was a streaming service. I didn't even know that was a service. I gotta get that. You know what, you big every big fat causers. That's what they are. They're big fat causers. You've got the most Your franchises are worth eight gazillion dollars. You have to Nickel and Dimus for Paramount Plus. I'm ready to go down to the NFL meetings in Burp in the middle of the meetings. That's how angry, that's how angry I am about this streaming nonsense. I mean, gives me a break.

How much more money do you need? It's bad, it's bad. We have ten ten early games, then we have three afternoon and we have one Sunday night. We do not have a Monday game, which is New Year's Day as the NFL clears out for college football and the National Semis. So there's that.

So we have to watch ten games early in three games that well, you couldn't have made it seven And.

I agree completely.

I mean, what are they doing?

I know it's awful.

Or if you're gonna put a game on Saturday, why not like put? You can't put two? Two?

Yeah, maybe three? Final question, there are sixteen games spread out like that. You are living in a bizarre world, Kelly Bidlin, And you must bet a side in fifteen of those sixteen games where there's one game that you want no part of whatsoever? What game is that?

Oh? Man, I think this is pretty easy. This week Chargers Broncos.

Jorge brought we didn't even talk about Russell Wilson.

After the Russell Wilson, who's going for Broncos?

Who's going for the Broncos?

Jared Stidham.

Oh Stidham versus stick. Yeah, it's the st game.

Nice hit. Okay, by the way, uh for those who missed it. Russell Wilson benched by the Broncos because the Broncos losing to the Patriots means that their playoff probability dipped all the way to like two point three percent. And so from a financial standpoint, the Redskins did this with RG three so many years ago. They had to sit him for basically a whole year. They cannot risk an injury because they're already on the hook for the next two years in dead cap space eighty five million dollars. But there's an additional like he's getting thirty I won't get the exact number. Russell Wilson is already making next year, regardless of what happens, thirty nine million dollars guaranteed thirty nine million dollars twenty twenty four. But this is the Broncos way of not having to pay him an additional thirty seven million.

Because if he got hurt in.

These last two games of the season, it could potentially trigger that guarantee because he would fail a physical will and I were talking about this like couldn't he fake a failed the physical And then Will correctly responded with they could just fake pass him on the physical.

So that's why I don't understand what's the point. What is the point with this whole physical nonsense? So you could just because you get back and forth. No, because if you get hurt on the field, you're legit hurt. You can't fake that.

Oh I see it.

Yeah, misses a field goal like it scores now ten with one twenty one less than third quarter.

If I made sure they got that twenty fourth point right before the half though, they made sure they got that one.

Yeah, Will still got script.

I'll love your bad, uh Todd? What's your play? What's the game? You want to know?

Part of? Uh?

I don't really want to have any part of the forty nine ers and the Commandos because here's the thing, Like to me, are the forty nine ers gonna come out and just blow the doors off of them because they're so angry about what happened?

They can score fifty, right.

But at the same time you also have you have Ja Kobe Kobe, which really can't be stopped. I mean, if you watch the third quarter and fourth quarter.

He found Terry mcclaurin, who was incomparable. They can score, by the.

Way, that was one of my worst in game losses. I had Jets third quarter plus a half, Jets or nobody has scored and the Jets are driving late third quarter.

There's no way I can lose thre p.

Yeah you love Trevor Simeon Will game you want no.

Part Texans Titans doesn't do a lot for me.

I got Stroud probably coming back off of a concussion. I know Vrabel's everyone's favorite six and eleven coach of all times that I just don't understand this pass he gets because he won a couple playoff games like four years ago, like they their win total seven and a half. This year they're going under their win total seven a half. Last year he went under, like they went one and done two years around the playoffs. This idea that he's this great coach, I think is just a little misguided.

But this is probably the game.

How did he hurt you?

Will?

What did he do to hurt you?

He didn't.

I just I sense this with Tomlin too, and where it's like, man, these guys just get the benefit of doubt for so long, just because they're like mediocre. They get a you know, a win here or there.

I just I don't know.

At least Tom has a stupid winning streak.

Will I'm with you, you.

See Kelly co Yeah, I'm with you on for Abel, Like there's he gets I mean, don't get me wrong. Leading Ryan Tannehill to a freaking playoff, to the playoffs and anything is commendable. But yes, he's gotten a pass for like multiple years now.

And I don't you know why he got that pass because he was the first guy besides Belichick that was so cagy about the rules and manipulating game situations.

We also won some games.

That was pretty yiky.

Yeah, yeah, he just think he's a bad coach. No, I don't think he's a bad coach. I'm not saying he's a bad coach. If he got fired, he'd have a job within a day. And I don't I don't know that he's necessarily gonna be back next year. I just think some of these guys they get put on a pedestal where it's like, all right, can we just revisit it, can we re evaluate why we like this so much?

Yeah?

I agree, it's what you said, Gil and I think it's like I think for a lot of people out there, it's like we're like, oh, someone who used to play football and he gets like analytical smart math decisions, like oh wow, he must be the greatest thing ever. Like, no, it's just not always the case.

Well, you can tell us off air what he did to you. It's okay, Todd, what do you have to say about the Mike he said stupid streak about Mike tom What are you gonna say?

I'll be honest, Look all Italians, what I think about Mike tom Win. I always thought he was an above average coach. He does a hot with what he's got hot, but he's never been a heat Look at him. Look at him against Bill Bellcheck. Okay, he got his ass kicked in a bunch of times by Bill bell Check. I never loved Mike Tomlin. I just was like, we're not gonna get anybody better.

You know, Steelers have to go one and one in their final two games. One tie is all they need.

Actually, actually I could take one at one. You're right, never mind, I can take that. One tie is all they need to keep.

His consecutive streak of non losing seasons.

Are the Ravens gonna need the game next week when they play them.

They might not, which Kelly and I talked about this on a numbers game.

They might not. If the Ravens win this game, the Ravens have the number one seed against the Dolphins.

That's the kind of game the Steelers could win if the Ravens don't try. That's right, that's the kind of game Tom that'll win. Yeah, and the.

Steelers three and a half point dogs this week at Seattle. Even if you don't believe that there is a scenario where they could beat the Ravens, they're also is there like plus four seventy five to make the postseason if you got to if you were one of these people that thought they could beat the Seahawks, it's good to know that the Ravens might not have anything to Oh, bet.

The Steelers plus the four to seventy five instead.

Well, even though it's a sucky number. It's a sucky number, but it's still a nice number to have if you if you can get to you think they're beating the Seahawks, knowing that that Ravens game might not mean anything might be a pretty clever bet. I didn't bet it though, because I think the Seashaws off.

By the way he's playing quarterback. I'm just telling you that right now.

And I know he looked good last week. Come on, stop.

Huntley's not horrible.

By the way, Huntley could beat Pittsburgh even though even if it's Baltimore's backups.

That's not like a true that's true. That's true.

Huntley isn't bad.

Yeahr the Pro Bowl last year, right, Harbau doesn't seem like the type of coach that would just well, he likes to win Pro Game.

Yeah, exactly, will. I think he did with a bunch. I think you made the Pro Bowl last year too.

I did.

Yeah, I think you're didn't Tyler make the Pro Bowl?

I think you're right?

Did he?

Yes?

I think he did.

Tyler Huntley made the Pro Bowl. Nobody goes like getting up at the Pro Bowl.

You're like, hey, you're like the fourteen everything?

Did he really? Wow?

Watches the Pro Bowl?

Zero?

Heios z can't even watch it.

I couldn't watch a play of it. Mine is Indianapolis and the Raiders, despite the fact that Kelly loves the good Cools here. I have no idea. You could tell me any outcome in that game. I believe you want no part of that.

Over in the Pro Bowl used to be the best bet there was in sports. But then they started to mess with the rules, and then they started to do drafts and stuff. It used to just be like free money bet in the over, but better better days.

Remember when Sean Taylor laid out the punter.

From the Bills Mormon, Ryan Mormon.

You imagine if Sean Taylor played today, may rest in peace. Like he could not play in the NFL.

He'd be broke with all the fire, he be bro.

He just couldn't play anymore. He'd retire, all right. S w U fourteen BC ten. Todd wins his third quarter, and I'm looking pretty you have what do you I have under forty one.

I just can't afford one and a half or forty one forty one. But that's good because at least seventeen you don't lose.

Well, I just can't have overtime. Overtit will kill me. But there's a fourteen minutes of football left to be playing.

We're looking bad at halftime, and I was looking.

Bad at half time. I look good now. I was looking great after the first quarter, looking great after the third quarter, not so much at halftime, which of course is We're Will bedded. Sorry Will, gentlemen, thank you Kelly Bedlein. There's megapod debut.

It was a privilege and an honor. Well, and I hope I get aspect.

Oh you will, Kelly.

I have decided that in order to get my college basketball picks even better than they already are, I'll be using you as my college basketball weather guy.

You've got it.

So if I have a Aplene Christian against the Carner Wardon, I'm.

Not sure about the weather outside of Texas.

You know, you know, are there are there any Todds going to be inside burping because that might affect the wind actually inside.

You know, actually that would really work too.

I don't know.

There was some gus. There were some Vegas games I was watching on TV. I was like so upset that I wasn't in Vegas. There were some college games there was like nobody there. It was like last week I think it was, and then I forget who was I know it was it was it was the.

Black college game.

I had some really good picks in those games. Howard was playing Jackson State as a good three point shooter and I'm sitting there watching a Mandola Bay. There is no one in Mandally Bay. I mean there was like five people in. I was like, if I was in Vegas, I would be at this Mandalay Bay game sitting on the floor with Gil and.

They would be in such trouble.

Experienced that.

For those of us who haven't experienced Todd at an empty gym, heckling, what are some of the go to lines?

Give us a little Well, I just you know, well, I'll do no. I'll like be really clever about it, you know, like I'll look at guys backgrounds, Oh you're from like woe Bunk Pennsylvania. I'll start yelling their hometown or something. You know, you got to be you know. I look, I'm never disrespectful and I'm never you know, over the line. I like to be humorous. But you know, like Dukine was playing Radford. I remember one time at the Orleans and I was down and I was like, you guys go back to Pittsburgh and at and like, I'm sure most people don't know the Dukenes in Pittsburgh and they're looking.

At me like I'm crazy.

How does this guy know it's like, what was that when we went to the Orleans and I was just dying, what was the song you were singing?

Oh?

No, the me and Gilly went to the Orleans for that was the n I T S m uh semi finals.

No, it was.

So Texas for somebody.

Yeah, it was North texagainst Utah Tech or something like that. It was Mark Madison's team before he went to Strandford, Mark mads and uh and so at the at the at the time out, they one of the bands for one of the teams was playing the Killers song come Back and bit with me. Yeah, said, oh you know that song come up?

It was not that song. It was a different song. You did recognize ship touchdown was touchdown?

BC?

Am I really going to do a megapod? And I don't get a Dolphins fights at a Todd Kelly Dolly courage.

I don't like to be prompted. I don't like to be prompted.

What do you think he's a puppet? I wanted to say, you think he's a clown?

Kelly?

I can do a Kelly beinlin on it.

Kelly doesn't need to do Miami games at all because we have the weather in South Florida. There's no need for Kelly Bidlin at all.

Wow, I think we'll end it on that is what he says. I don't know what animal died inside of you, but please don't birth the rest of the day.

Okay, I'm not gonna eat anymore.

That for Kelly Bilin, Todd Wishing, Todd at t wishneb if you're interested in college basketball and Will Hill at not b Will Hill, will you have a new podcast? You're back?

Tell everybody should have bet More. It airs a couple of times a week, usually Monday Friday. Might add a third episode, so take a look out for that.

Had Jason Weingarten on this week, had you on last week? So should have bet More?

Apple, Spotify, Download, rate review, subscribe?

Uh you know dot com in the Yeah, that's dot com.

In the history of this podcast, I don't think I've ever said rate and subscribe. And you know what, I'm an idiot for not having done that all the years, because that's a game.

You're an idiot for other reasons.

But you're talking about gy who's thirty two fifteen and one WILLI yeah, the other one in.

The pocket I'll drop sometimes is leave comments. But like I'm rarely going back to a specific weekly episode of something. You can read it through the comments on Spotify and apples, So sorry forever. If I ever say that you actually do leave a comment, please tweet instead.

No no, no, you're supposed to leave. You're supposed to say subscribe. That's how the game is played. Good luck everybody with your week seventeen bets and then National Football leagu Thanks for listening.