Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon give their thoughts on every game on the week 15 NFL slate on Monday's Beating The Book. What are their initial thoughts on the week 15 schedule? Also, some impressions on week 14. Chargers-Raiders (7:00), Vikings-Bengals (18:00), Broncos-Lions (22:00), Bears-Browns, (27:00), Bucs-Packers (35:00), Texans-Titans (42:00), Jets-Dolphins (46:00), Giants-Saints (47:00), Chiefs-Patriots (1:00:00), Falcons-Panthers (1:07:00), Commanders-Rams (1:09:00), 49ers-Cardinals (1:17:00), Cowboys-Bills (1:27:00), Ravens-Jaguars (1:31:00), Eagles-Seahawks (1:31:30).
The numbers told the story.
They always don't. It's one of those idiots who believe in the analytics.
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander Good.
Monday Morning Tune is a numbers game at Visa, the sports Betting Network, Visa dot Com, the VSA F Game plus iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course the DK Network. At Skill Alexander. It is Kelly Midland, so producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Live from bar Canada here at the d Downtown Laws, Vegas, Kelly was hatting it not much, man, How you doing good? We can you know? I keep banging my head up against the sixty percent ceiling in millions and I just cannot get over it. You know.
My favorite thing is, Oh, it's so infuriate, you know. My favorite thing is about better. What do you ask them how their weekend is? It's it's always just a response of what their banding was. Look, how are you, Gil? How are you in life? That's what I want to wait, minut what is what we wanted? Didn't even consider that? You love that night?
You like you have casual relationships with friends, were betters, and you're like and those people you don't really care about how their weekend was, but they answer betteguise, what how are you doing? And really considered that when I reattached to my life, I'll let you know, yeah, exactly how are you doing? I was your weekend?
You're doing good? Man, I'm exhausted. Long NBA all that was awesome. It was a lot of fun. But then, yeah, weekend.
Can I tell you a story right off the top, the difference between the Warriors and the Lakers Warriors. It's such a metaphor for the Bay Area versus La Hollywood. When the Warriors won their third championship. I think they did this more than once. But I was at Carbone when they won their third. They had the parade in Oakland, they flew and they had dinner at Carbone. Forgot about that, And everybody's coming through the front eye fist bumped Draymond, Matt Barnes, JaVale McGhee. I think that was the third of their fourth right through the front door, right, everyone but Steph. Step I don't think I should let them come. The Lakers win the inaugural in season tournament. I'm also at Carbone. We never see them. They're inside the restaurant as well. Why because the Lakers are two Hollywood. They come through the service centers to the back. They not what do they put them in that back room or something close? It all? We never saw them and we're in the same restaurant and the bartenders are like rolling their eyes like this is perfect that no one can see them. Everyone's so excited to see that nobody saw it. Oh even a whiff of them. Okay. Today on the show, Week fifteen, Guessing Lines. Yes, we try to extract value in the upcoming week's NFL lines. We'll try to do that. I guess my sentiment every week is and when I feel good about it, I do well. When I don't feel good about it, I don't do as well. We'll see how we feel about these coming up. Also want to recommend three bets during this show as well. One is to make the playoffs. A couple are to win division bets, which are long shot numbers. And with four weeks left in the year, with this this you know little of a runway remaining. This is about where these kind of this is your last shot at them. We'll have aaron shots on this week the quarter pole because after this it's such a small sample size that the value is kind of eliminated entirely. Maybe an exception here there. Yeah, look at it like the same way a lot with my live betting too.
It's just like you're running out a runway to allow yourself to get bets to get home.
So yeah, I'm with you on that. Let's talk circus survivor. Of course, at first, which we do each and every guessing lines. We are down to and this is at the moment because seven people have the Packers tonight, one person has the Dolphins. So right now we are at you ready for this, Kelly, twenty one nine of the thirty that entered this week, we're eliminated. Eight as we found out after the fact, we're on the Steelers on Thursday night. One one was on the Detroit line. So we're down to twenty one. So with eight still pending tonight, eight still pending tonight, the intrinsic value of the twenty one remaining it to me four hundred and forty one two hundred eighty five dollars and seventy one cents. Wow, our own Adam Burke is through. He had the Browns. The entry that he is a part of had the Browns as Adam and go Adam as Adam Burke, though, does Adam Brown. Adam Burke says to me yesterday through text, he said, they've they've let me down for thirty seven years of my life. Finally one day they didn't, was his exactly. That's a good I forgot about advance in his team. That's great. Paul Howard is one of the folks on the Packers tonight. Uh so again right at this moment twenty one, still alive, but again eight penny to night. Wish everybody good luck and getting through again. Four hundred forty one thousand, two hundred eighty five dollars and seventy one cents. Oh boy, you have any plays on tonight's game? I have. I have plays in both for me too. I didn't bet either one of them, though, I bet the Packers, but I have the Dolphins and the Packers in millions heads up. In the other one, I took the points of the Giants. Yeah, Dolphins and Giants for the contest. All right, let's see, let's start. Now here's how this works again. We go through every game. We'll talk about yesterday's games, but with an eye towards this coming weeks games. I guess what the line is going to be. I don't know what they are. Kelly will tell me what the consensus number is. Within that process, we hope to find value and trigger some bets and again some futures plays here along the way as well. What is first, sir? Thursday? Oh that's first, baby, that's first. Here's the thing now, I actually remembered this last week, breaking a demagio like streak of not remembering. And I forgot the one for college. Yes, and you forgot the one for college all right. Thursday night, Chargers at Raiders. Oh god, five and eight Charges, five and eight Raiders. They're both done. So the Chargers lose to the Broncos. I had the Chargers yesterday, and any hope I had was quickly extinguished in this game for multiple reasons. First of all, early in the game. This really just describes the Chargers season. After a Chargers punt early in the game, first and ten at their own nine for the Broncos first play Wilson picked by Michael Davis, then the Chargers get nothing out of it. From the they get to fourth and three at the Denver six they had first and ten inside the red zone. They get to fourth and three at the Denver six, they failed to convert. Denver then punts. The Chargers are pinned deep in their own territory and of course that doesn't work out for them. Third and seven at their own twelve, Herbert picked by Jonathan Cooper. Same thing happening, except this time Javonte and from three to seven and nothing Denver four fifty five left in the first quarter. That's really kind of all you have to know about these Los Angeles Chargers. From there, it was a punt for Chargers, punt for Denver, pun for Chargers. By the way, that Chargers punt went eighty three yards from JK. Scott. Oh, that was awesome, tie for the longest in the NFL and the last ten years. Another Denver punt. Then the Chargers end up fourth and two at the Denver twenty nine, trying to tie up this game. They go for it Herbert incomplete intended for Alex Erison Ericson. But the big story on that play is that Herbert hurts his index finger. It is throwing hand, never to return and we find out it is fractured. He could be out the rest of the season. And I think I speak on behalf of everybody when I say, uh, why don't you just take him take a seat? What's the point? Oh? Yeah, yeah, yeah, this is yeah.
Maybe unlike some of the other interests we've seen this year, you're five and what eight?
Now, yeah, you're your toast. You're done there? How quickly after the season ends, like the moment that goes as the clock goes to zero zero, do you think the Spannos family goes right? Brandon's deill are fired quicker than Josh Harris with Ron Rivera.
I mean, gil, I would like to think that, but man, we've thought that so many times already that they were.
To do it, even those of us who hope for the best for Brandon Stanley h Yeah. By the way, after Denver three and out, Easton Stick came in the game third and seven at their own twenty seven for the Chargers, Stick, feeling no pressure whatsoever, was hit by Jakwan mcmillion was ruled incomplete after what some thought was a fumble scoop and score. At least that was ruled on the field. Broncos end up with a field goal ten to nothing at the half. You don't really need to know any more other than the Broncos got into seventeen to nothing. The Chargers had a cosmetic touchdown later in the game, but the final score was twenty four to seven in favor of the Broncos. There was nothing to see here. Literally after Herbert left this game. Even when Herbert was in it was kind of not really must see TV, But certainly when he left. Herbert ended up nine of seventeen for ninety six, stick thirteen for twenty four for one to seventy nine in defeat the Raiders against the Vikings. You thought that was bad, how about this three to nothing Vikings they win it. Here's your first half. Vegas punt Minnesota, three and out Vegas punt Minnesota, punt Vegas three and out Minnesota, Joseph missus a forty nine yard field goal attempt Vegas three at out Minnesota punt Vegas end of half. First time since October third, nineteen eighty eight that two games on the same day went to half scoreless, by the way, the Jets game being the other. Josh Dobbs, I am man enough to admit I might have been wrong about Josh Dobbs five of eleven at the half for forty yards. By the way, the Raiders were out yarding out total yarding the Vikings at halftime ninety six to eighty eight. Oh and oh, by the way, insult injury or I should say injury to insult Justin Jefferson chest injury. On his second reception, Dobbs barely got to play with him. He would not return. Sounds like he'll be okay the long term. Yes, it does. This get continued with the punts. By the way, both teams back and forth. This was an underfest, unlike the Jets game, by the way, where I think a lot of people tried the underfest and then it came back to bite them. Yeah. Yeah, So we can't get too glib about this where it's like, oh, you should have made tons on it. Well, some of the people made tons on this got crushed on the Jets game. Anyway. Bottom line is Dobbs benched finally in the fourth quarter for Nick Mullins. Dobbs just doesn't see the field at all, Like, can you be that bad after you were? It checks one place and then looks to run. It's every time Minnesota starts out their own twenty six with five nineteen to go. There matriculate two minutes to go. This is with Nick mullins. Now they get a Joseph thirty six yard field goal three to nothing, Minnesota finally points. Vegas first played from their own twenty five O'Connell picked by Ivan Pace Junior. So everybody who's bet this ats is like, oh boy, Minnesota could cover this. Then, in a decision significant to some, they decide to pooch punt with eighteen seconds left rather than kick a field goal, and it ends up three to nothing, and that's a push for a lot of folks. O'Connell twenty one of thirty two for one seventy minus three and turnovers, but that didn't lead to any Vikings points either. That's how bad that was. The teams combined bottom line for seventeen punts in the lowest scoring NFL games since two thousand and seven. And so, since it's not Herbert and its stick, Vegas is going to be favored. I'll say by a field goal just because exactly three at draft, because what else could it be. Yeah, it feels like another Thursday night that I'll be fine not watching much of this game. Yeah, wish there were NBA in tournament in season tournament games that day. No, let's still be NBA games that night. We watch it over it. We do have Saturday games, right we do? Oh we have three Saturday. Okay, Saturday games, let's do that next Saturday games. On the other side, trying to extract value. And we have some futures bets. I got some futures bet suggestions. See how you like these. One's a division again and once to make the playoffs, and two are division long shots. Four weeks left in the regular season. It's a numbers game with Vison these Sports Betting Network. Here are three reasons Zen is America's number one nickeoteam pout. We use food grade ingredients. We have a wide selection of varieties and they all come in two strengths. Find Zen at a store near you. Warning this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical.
Numbers game on VS in these Sports Betting.
Network numbers game line from O'm came out of here at the d If you're looking for betting edge this college Bowl season, the Vson experts have got you covered. Become a vcent Pro subscriber with an introductory offer of only nine to ninety nine. VSA Pro subscribers get access to our daily recap of the top plays made by Vson show hosting guests, tools like our betting splits let's see where the money and bets are moving every game, and our College Bowl betting God, where you get picks for every Bowl game. Don't miss out on this limited time offer. Visit vson dot com slash subscribe today to sign up for only nine dollars ninety nine cents. Become part of the sports betting networks that's vsin dot com slash subscribe. We get tweets at beating the book. Always appreciate the feedback. This from NCI ninety five Gambler, North Carolina High ninety five Gambler had my best NFL betting Sunday thanks to the guys I listened to Gil. I think that's Sammy p and Feesick even won my local NFL pool. I'm glad you gleaned something for me this week. Nice of all the weeks of the year. Yeah, what'd you take away? I'm glad. Congratulations to you Stephen Vegas. As a Bills fan, I love that Hamlin was able to come back but Bills are only keeping him on the team for service time. When the season is over, he'll be he's available for NFL pension, for Buffalo, for claps clap emojis for Buffalo, for doing the right thing. But he's not Comeback Player of the Year. Who is now? Maybe Flacco, thirty eight year old Joe Flacco is a fascinating story. He's one hundred to one at DraftKings right now. We haven't talked about this for weeks. We didn't talk about that, we weren't going to talk about it. But Comeback Player of the Year just started to get so ridiculous because you have no idea what the with the betters in any award are thinking their criteria is, or what you know their criteria to be let alone this one, but that's would you throw would you throw some? Uh? Some? I don't know, man. I don't hate it. I don't I don't hate it. I just think it's still Hamblin and I but I could.
Be is where we were, Like we've we've constantly talked about it's just so hard to compare all these cases to each other, is it. I think the biggest problem with Flacco is when you're gonna go to compare him to other players not coming back from a devastating uh yeah, like what Demart Hamlin did. The problem is we're gonna go to compare them. He's only going to have played what five six games? Right, That's what it's gonna end up being for him.
So I guess the questions and if he has one bad game, it's right exactly, So I guess the question is that enough? And then how? Yeah? How how many bad games can he have? Is it just won Cleveland? In case you missed, though, Kevin Stefanski did name Joe Flacco the starter for the rest of the season for the Browns, who are the inside of the AFC playoff picture. All right, let's try to get to all Saturday games. Here. What do we got? All right?
Saturday? This is one Eastern kick Vikings at Bengals.
Love that we have Saturday. NFL love Josh Dobbs, by the way, ten of twenty three for sixty three, no touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked five times. Honestly, have you ever seen a guy that just, all of a sudden is this bad? Maybe you have, I just don't know what. Like sometimes I'm like, I look over at O'Connell and he's like, I does he not see any I still don't understand what the There clearly was some disconnect between the front office and the and O'Connell, with me even bringing him in in the first place, considering he wanted to bench him after game one. Yeah, apparently I got that one wrong. He's falling back to earth. Its mullins nine of thirteen for eighty three. Again, they were plus three and turnovers. Those turnovers led to zero points in their three to nothing win over over the Raiders. By the way, Kelly sent me this stat just now. This is this puts it in context as well. NFL teams Janet Eckhart shout out to Janet Janick Eckhart on this NFL team since two thousand and eight, now one, two hundred and fifty five and two when they score three or fewer points, that one was that and then there's Cincinnati, both of these teams, by the way, So we just had a game between two five and eight teams, the Chargers and the Raiders. This is a game between two seven and six teams and their respective conferences, Minnesota at Cincinnati. Cincinnati had to win this game against Indianapolis twice after a trade of three and outs. Then in Indianapolis punt Browning to Chase brown What a fine he is for fifty four seven and nothing. Cincinnati, then Matt Gay couldn't get it right. In a day where like field goals and extra points were missed left and right yesterday, literally a game misses a thirty eight yard field goal try, Cincinnati matriculates into field goal range. They were gifted a first down on a leverage call that led to a mix and one yard score. They got it to fourteen to nothing, but then Indianapolis came back seventeen play, seventy eight yard drive Minshew to Ali Cox's two yard touchdown. Matt Game missed the point after touching a fourteen to six, but then with one fifty six left in the second quarter, second play following the drivers following drive for Cincinnati, Browning was picked by Ronnie Harrison Junior to the house two point conversion good. And it was fourteen fourteen at the half somehow, And then the second half happened in Cincinnati just dominated in all three phases of the game. They went seventy five yards on six plays, Browning to Tanner Hudson from eleven out twenty one to fourteen. Indianapolis pun Cincinnati got it to fourth and one at the Indianapolis three, Mixing for two two plays later Browning in from one twenty eight to fourteen. They'd go on to win it thirty one to fourteen, but not before Browning himself got hurt and AJ McCarron had to come in. By the way, Indianapols had won last gasp in this game, they had a first in goal with of Cincinnati ten. They turned that into second and goal with the twenty five courtesy of a hold in completing a false start Minshew picked by bj Hill. That was as close as the Colts would ever get, thirty four to fourteen. The final Browning eighteen of twenty four for two to seventy five, two toughdowns, one pick. He was not sacked. He has the highest completion percentage Kelly seventy nine percent through the first three starts, through his first three starts minimum seventy five pass attempts since nineteen fifty That courtesy of ESPN Stats and Information. How about that, while think they're alive to get in the playoffs, you think that, I mean I want to be the.
Guy that says, let's all be cautious. This can't keep working out this way. But so far it is so yeah. I mean, do they have the of course, they have the pieces around him. This team was built around a quarterback right to succeed on the on the offense. So this will not technically be an elimination game, but it's the facto elimination game between Minnesota and Cincinnati again and their respective conferences. I will say Cincinnati minus four and a half knowingly the Vikings troubles at Q Bengals minus four, minus four k next close, next, all right, four to thirty Eastern Steelers at Colts.
All right, we don't have to say much about this. We already talked about the Steelers on Friday. Steelers seven and six, the Colts seven and six. How about this Colts in defeat in that game against the Bengals Minshew twenty six of thirty nine for two forty one touchdown, one pick you with sack three times. I will say the Colts by is either two and a half or three. I'll say three two and a half. Okay, all right, all.
Right, eight fifteen Eastern Saturday Night Broncos at Lion.
The Broncos are seven and six. You have six teams in the AFC that are seven and six. People love the Broncos. I'm sorry, I still don't see I'm with you, uh seven. And some people love Sean. They want to canonize Sean Payne. I don't see it. Seven and six at the Detroit Lions, boil boy the Lions. They're nine and four. The Lions lose. We already talked about the Broncos. The Lions lose to the Bears. Bears took the opening drive sixty nine yards on eight plays, DJ Moore in from sixteen seven to nothing. Bears Detroit punts Chicago Santo's forty six yard field goal, set up in part by fields to Darnell Mooney twenty eight yard hookup with a fifteen yard unnecessary roughness tacked on Alexand's alone ten to nothing, one twenty two left in the first quarter, fourth and ten, Detroit fourth and tent at the Chicago thirty five they go for it golf picked by Jalen Johnson. Bears then stopped on downs themselves though fourth in one of the Detroit thirty eight more no gain, and then Detroit goes sixty two yards eight plays, incuting golf to people Jones for seventeen and on fourth and three at Chicago thirty eight. Gibbs that was on fourth and three at the Chicago thirty eight. Pardon me, Gibbs eventually in from twelve ten to six Chicago because Riley Patterson missed the pat What a horrible kicking day in the NFL yesterday, six to fifty nine left in the second quarter. After Chicago three and out, Detroit then goes fifty three yards and eleven plays. We forget that Detroit took the lead here goff to Reynolds from eight out thirteen to ten. That would be the halftime score in favor of Detroit. But then the second half Detroit three and out Santo's twenty five yard field goal to tie it up at thirteen apiece, eight thirty nine left on the third quarter, then another Detroit three and out, followed by Chicago three and out, follow by Detroit three and out Chicago fourth and thirteen at the Detroit thirty eight. This after a play on third down where I have no idea how they didn't call intentional grounding on justin fields yet they didn't fourth and thirteen at Detroit thirty eight. That, by the way, is ruled so inconsistently, I you know, drives those as the dard back falling down is his knee down, No he gets rid of it, but yes, if he gets rid of it, where is he throwing it to? Yep, they're like, oh, cole Comet was in the It's.
Always means you'll bring it up all the time, but it's grounding and it's the uncatchable pass like sometimes they just.
Whiff on these so badly. So on fourth and thirteen, h fields free play because Detroit jumps offside to more for thirty eight touchdown nineteen thirteen Chicago Santos's bat was blocked second play, ensuing drive. Then Graham Glasgow fumbles for Detroit, recovered by t. J. Edwards. Chicago set up the Detroit twenty nine to five plays fields in from eleven touchdown two point conversion fields. It's twenty five to thirteen at this point, early fourth quarter, fourth and one at their own thirty four for Detroit. Dan Campbell doing the old Brandon Stally thing and not taking nearly as much guff as Brandon Staley used to. He just completely ruins these games. For the lines. Gibbs four yard loss that sets up a Santo's twenty eight or field twenty eight to thirteen with nine to twenty to go, and Detroit would then just turn it over on downs on one possession subsequent to that and then Goff get picked on another one. Twenty eight to thirteen is how it would end. Goff twenty of thirty five for one sixty one. Detroit only had thirteen first downs and they were outgained three thirty six to two sixty seven. They were minus three and turnovers that led to plus six Chicago net points. The Detroit Lions ain't good man. We'll get to a division thought here later. But it's the nine to four Lions hosting the Broncos. I'll say Lions by three and a half. It is Lions four right now. Lions minus four at draft games, no idea how my over didn't get home in that game. It's one of these where I'm like tempted to take the Lions though, because they are because of those fourth down calls. They're very volatile, right yes, And if it's volatile to the good they should be able to cover that. There are a lot of three and a halves out there. I was just gonna go look at that. I'm wondering. I'm wondering if there's gonna be Denver money this week. Yeah, I'll wait. I'm not rushing to do three. I'm with you. I'm bad. Lions. Interesting game and Detroit. Those objects in your review mirror getting closer, more guessing lines, next numbers game Visa the Sports Betting Network. Let us continue moving on to Sunday now, Week fifteen. God, can you believe it? I think I'm contractually obligated to say this now. Can you believe we're at week fifteen? It's wild man, it's flying by, It's amazing. Week fifteen, all right? One in Eastern Bears at Browns, Bears A Browns. We just talked about the Bears in victory fields nineteen of thirty three for two twenty three one touchdown. No Pixie was sacked three times, twelve carries for fifty eight yards of a touchdown and against Chicago, held Detroit to thirteen first downs and outgained the Lions with vaunted offense three thirty six to two sixty seven. They were plus three in turnovers zero to three led to plus six Chicago ned points Cleveland Browns. We talked about Joe Flacco a little earlier. Cleveland against Jacksonville, Browns took the opening drive seventy five yard six plays, Flacco to a wide Oak wide open to Djoku from thirty four to seven to nothing. Cleveland then teams traded three and ounts in a Jacksonville punt, then a trade of three and outs again, then another Jacksonville punt. Cleveland then goes seventy two yards in four plays, Flacco to Najoku for thirty Why is my voice doing that? Fourteen to nothing Cleveland thirteen forty left. Second quarter, first play in suing drive, Lawrence picked deep by Martin Emerson Junior. Okay, so Cleveland's up fourteen to nothing. A lot of strange games yesterday, but this is one of those where you're like, Okay, Cleveland's gonna blow them out. Cleveland refused to blow them out. Cleveland matriculates, but third and four of the Jacksonville thirty seven Flacco picked by Darius Williams. Jaggs would have to punt, but the first play in suing drive first and had their own five Flacco to Amari Cooper for nineteen. He's tackled by Andrew Winguardy fumbles and finally jack Jacksonville's like okay, recovered by Devin Lloyd. They're set up at the Cleveland twelve. Two plays later, Lawrence to Evan Ingram from ten out, fourteen to seven Cleveland six fourteen left, second quarter, and the game would kind of go like this. Cleveland would take a two touchdown lead. Jacksonville will cut it to seven after Cleveland three and out. Jacksonville gets it to first and ten at the clean Eveland twenty four. They're knocking at the door to tie this. Lawrence picked by Martin Emerson Junior again, one forty seven left in the second quarter. That would be the halftime score. At halftime, Flacco had thrown for two hundred twelve yards boom and a two hundred and sixty six to one to twenty nine total yards advantage for Cleveland, Yet they're only up fourteen to seven. Third quarter opening drive, third play, third and twenty one at their own fourteen. Lawrence to Parker Washington, hit by Anthony Walker Junior, fumbles recovered by Walker. Cleveland set up at Jacksonville twenty two seven plays in hunting from four twenty one to seven Cleveland. This team. Both of these teams were like here, go ahead, take it over. After Jacksonville three and out, second and ten for Cleveland at their own thirty three, Flacco sacked by Antonio Johnson fumbles, Jeremiah Ledbetter recovers, Jacksonville set up at the Cleveland twenty five. This game took forever because of all this. Six plays in at the n N from one twenty one to fourteen Cleveland four to fifty nine left in the third quarter. Then after Cleveland punt, Lawrence picked deep by Greg Newsome third and one from their own fifteen, Cleveland set up at Jacksonville forty eight. Four plays later, Flack to David Bell from forty one out, wide open touchdown twenty eight to fourteen. Cleveland like okay, well, Cleveland backers like goal, easy, peasy right, twelve thirty four to go. Then Jacksonville goes seventy five yards nine plays because of course they do. Lawrence to Parker Washington from nineteen out twenty eight twenty one Cleveland. Cleveland eventually punch in Jacksonville then stopped on downs. Cleveland set up with the Jacksonville thirty eight, they're thirty eight, they're up seven with three thirty to go. They get a Hopkins fifty five yard field goal to go up ten, thirty one, twenty one, and now you're like, of course, Jacksonville is gonna get the ball now and push this game. Nine plays, seventy five yards Lawrence to Ingram from two out, thirty one, twenty seven, one, thirty three to go. Kelly and the Jacksonville Jaguars and Doug Peterson, maybe the only team in the league that would do this, maybe decide to go for two. We've seen the fourteen to eight and then they go for two to get it to six. We've sort of established that now that people kind of get that. Not everyone loves it, but people get that it's a normal thing. I don't think we've ever seen the four to two before. I could be wrong. By the way, on the two point conversion, Lawrence is sacked on sidekick fails. There's your ballgame. The people had had the three and a half either way. That was an unbelievable occurrence. The Browns cover, Jacksonville does not because of that failed two point attempt. Now, before we get to the guests here. Well, Flaco, by the way, three hundred and eleven yards in this game, twenty six and forty five. Name the starter for the rest of the season. Najoku six for ninety one, two touchdowns, seven turnovers in this game, four for Jacksonville, three for Cleveland. Let's get to that decision in a minute. Cleveland minus three and a half, I'll say, hosting Chicago, yep, dead on it, Bail. Do you like that decision to go for two down, four one thirty three left?
So I think what I the way you just described the fourteen when you're fourteen down, I am so on board with that one.
Now this one, I get it. I don't know if I like it. I think that's fair.
So so I don't know that I have a huge problem with it. I get I guess is my point. But yeah, it affected a lot of things yesterday.
The analytics, Well, I'm trying to say, what's the easiest way to try to convince people that I'm not trying to convince you to like this, but I'm trying to give the analytics argument for this. So the eight to six one of the ways that you can describe that, and a lot of people go to that, Well, you want to know, you want to have the information, and you do want to have the information in the eight to six. You want to know if you can win the game. You want to know if you'll need it, you know, a touchdown in a two at the end, you just want to There's that. But the way that there's a way to describe it as the difference between the eight and the seven is less than the difference between the seven and the six when it comes to football scoring. I think we understand that because eight and seven is still one score, yes, one that involves a two point version of one doesn't, and the six is you just win the football game, So we're talking about win probability rare in the same way, the difference between the four and the three is less than the difference between the three and the two. But that's a little more counterintuitive, right, because if there was twenty seconds left in the game, I would argue, you don't do this correct because if you recover the on side kick, you have so little time that you'd have to kick the field goal to extend it to over too. Yeah, this one is even more time dependent in my mind than the fourteen point one. It's just one of these things where you have to sort of convince yourself. I don't know what's going to happen in overtime. I want perfect information. This is the analytically correct thing to do. But I am with you, Kelly in that I don't like it nearly as much as the eight to six. Yeah. Yeah, Anyway, it had betting implications, huge ones and there you I mean, I mean especially I just I do think this is where and I know where this.
Is where the coaches struggle a lot with this stuff. You do have to take game flow into the account, I think a little bit. And man, with how much It's not like these offenses were moving the ball easily up and down the field.
You know what I mean, You're gonna have to recover the on side kick anyway. You obviously everyone gets it. If you get the two, oh, it's great because you can win with a field goal. If you don't, you just you're gonna have to matriculate forty thirty five yards further. But it's still enough time to do that. It's interesting. Next game, Next game, okay, uh Sunday one Eastern Bucks at Nope, Bucks at not the Browns Kelly Packers, six and seven Bucks, who now lead currently right at this moment, the NFC South and the six and six Packers, who we haven't seen play. They play tonight at the Giants. They're six and a half point favorites as far as Tampa Bay. Yesterday they end up beating Atlanta in a game in which they were out gained four thirty four to two ninety and it came down to we'll just fast forward to the end of this twenty two to seventeen. Tampa's up in a game that was back and forth to that point. Atlanta goes seventy five yards on five plays, book ended by Ridard to London for forty five, which was a beautiful play that looked like it was gonna get picked, but instead London snatched it out of the air and that drive clothes with Ritter in from six and a two point conversion. So Richard London on the two pointer twenty five twenty two Atlanta with three twenty three to go. Tampa ends up on their final drive here fourth and one at their own forty five at the two minute warning, Rashad White for three. Six plays later, Mayfield to Otten from eleven out touchdown twenty nine to twenty five Tampa Bay with thirty one seconds to go, Atlanta gets it all the way to the Tampa Bay thirty with four seconds left to London for twenty eight two yards. Shy. Not good enough ballgame and as I said, out gained by Atlanta four thirty four to two ninety. The Bucks managed to win. Mayfield completed fourteen team forward passes fourteen for twenty nine for one four two touchdowns. No Pixie with sack. Once they're at Green Bay, I'll say Green Bay sight unseen tonight, green Bay by four and a half. And this is in the driver's seat now in the NFC South, your Buccaneers. That's what I said. Yeah, Packers are three and a half point favorites. Yes, I'm really yeah four at one point. I'm really high on the Packers. I like them tonight. I think I like them in this game too, Battle of the Base. I like the Packers so much I'd like to give a suggestion. They are nine to one to win the NFC North nine to one. They got five games, including tonight's at the Giants home Tampa at Carolina, at Minnesota home Chicago, all kind of winnable Detroit and Minnesota, who are ahead of them. Detroit by two in the lost column, Minnesota by Minnesota just by half game Detroit Denver at Minnesota at Dallas home Minnesota. So if you figure they lose at Dallas and they split with the Vikings, even if you think they beat the Broncos, that's two losses. Minnesota's at Cincinnati home Detroit. They have a head to head with Detroit, green Bay and the at Detroit the two games in three weeks. I kind of think green Bay at nine to one represents value. I like it. I have them from the preseason, so I'll just hold on there. What's your number of preseason like three seventy five or something, nine to one? Pretty good coming back numbers. Game Vison, you went to that Brian Windhorse hoop collective thing, that live podcast. Yes, it did. How was it? It was? It was very cool. It was very cool.
I was invited by some old friends that used to work with over at ESPN to go to it, and it was a very kind of private, h private kind of exclusive event. It was just like a live podcast, which like much like you know, if you're with you doing the megapod if there was a bit of an audience here, So I think it was. I think it was interesting for those guys doing it, just because it's different from the way that you always record your podcast, right, But it was it was.
It was a cool vet.
You got to see some great people and yeah, they had some great guests on Kevin Pelton, Malik Andrews all that, so everybody was down there.
That whole in season tournament was ended up being such a great idea, It really was.
I thought that was a great idea with the podcast too, because all these NBA people are in town.
Obviously. Yeah, no arrogance among that group, none whatsoever. Jack Special Breed, Jack Hannon. If a receiver, we'll get to this with the Chiefs coming up. If a receiver lines up as a linebacker, I believe you have to throw a flag. My issue is, I believe last night's officials were told to find one last night. Sure enough, they did combine this with holding flags being picked up on touchdowns, and it doesn't look good. Yeah, I don't know if they were told to look for one. I'll have my opinion on that coming up when we get to it.
I maybe think that in the in the Sunday night game last night? That what when they called that? They called that They called it on the guard from leaning into the neutral zone.
Oh, last night in that game, so I would the Eagles game the Eagles Cowboy.
Yeah, that was the one where I was like, this feels like an NFLF.
I even texted when that happened. I was like, is he off side? Yeah? And how did that look off sides to you at all? Okay? So I think it was, but it was so barely Gil, I'm sorry that. I was like, I'm never the conspiracy theoriest guy.
That that was the one where it was like, man, it felt like the NFL called this ref.
Crew before in too Rico and Collins where didn't really comp They were like, okay, that's off side. I was like, it was we're talking about the Eagles.
And you would think you'd be making a bigger deal about that after what just happened in Chiefs Bill.
Not sure it would have mattered in the outcome of that one last night, but yeah, all right, let's do another. What do we got? All right? We are on too Texans at Titans Sex? Is it Titans again? For everybody saying, oh you should have made a fortune on the Vikings Raiders live bet undering them. Well, if you did it on this Houston Jets game, you got slapped because first half Houston punt, Jets punt, Houston punt, Jets three and out, Houston punt Jets punt, Houston three and out, Jets three and out, Houston three and out, Jets three and out, Houston punt Jets and half. Here's your first half, Stroud cj That is twenty eight yards passing. In the first half, the Jets out gained the Texans one hundred to sixty three. There were eleven punts and ten first dounds in the first half of that Jets Texans game, and then the third quarter happened. Opening drive, Jets go seventy five yards seven place, because of course they do fifty five of those to Garrett Wilson. Wilson a cob from fifteen out, seven to nothing, Jettison's after the Houston three and out, Jets go sixty nine yards, Xavier Gibson in from nine fourteen to nothing, Jets four to thirty one left. Third quarter after another Houston three and out, Jets first and tend their own forty Zach for eleven hit by Christian Harris, fumbles Khalil Davis recovers, go fifty seven yards on four plays, Singletary in from one, fourteen to six. A Mondola misses a pat to Then the third quarter. Have I mentioned it was a horrible day kicking Jets then go seventy five five yards nine plays, Wilson to Hall. That's Breee for three, twenty one to six. Then Houston three and out zer line fifty one yard field goal twenty four to six. Subsequent drive, Stroud bangs his head on the turf, knocked out Mills in zero. Lin would add two more field goals from fifty five and forty four, thirty to six. Jets. Stroud ten for twenty three for ninety one before he was taken out, Mills taking out for injury or concussion. Mills one for five for four yards. The Jets out game Houston three forty seven to one, thirty five twenty to ten in first downs, and the Texans were one of twelve on third and zero for three on fourth. Only had the ball twenty two minutes and fifty five seconds. I get it, you might have had the Jets, but thirty to six Yeah, what would you put the number on Aaron Rodgers popping up out of nowhere this weekend making it about him. Oh, I can still come back, all right, Aaron Oh Man, just can't eliminated already. So we don't have to deal with this because I do. The problem is you're right, You're right, and I'm gonna be annoyed by that for this week. Yeah, but man, you gotta give that. You gotta give this Jets defense. And then Zack Wilson some credit. Brent called it on the megapote with Zack Wilson. He said, Zack Wilson has been unfairly I'll use my words, not his unfairly maligned. Yes, like in a way two, not that he's good, but in a way that's over the top. Yes, absolutely, I think that form the since he since the jump with it Houston minus two and a half on the road. By the way, if CJ. Stroud, even if he were to let's he gets back in, Even if if he were to play like this the rest of the way, he won't win Rookie of the Year either. Just want to throw that out, Yeah, I mean I don't think that's good. That will happen this was his I don't think it will have this. He's a dut of a game on the road against a good defense, not ideal. Well, they just want to point out for all of it. Yes, ticket is not dead. Oh I wasn't even talking about that, but yeah, you're right. But I'm just saying with all of these awards, there's still enough runway. Obviously with MVP and Coach of the Year, those are still up for grabs. But for the ones that you think are done, though, maybe they're not. Houston minus two and a half at Tennessee or does Tank Dell's absence mean that much? It is Titans minus two. Sorry, DraftKings just went off and got I think the wrong team is favorite here. Titans don't play till tonight Titan's favorite. Huh? Is that because we don't know if C. J. Stroud is playing? Is that the assumption? Yes, I mean he's gonna he's gonna be in concussion protocol. Okay, that makes he's gonna be in concussion protocol. Now, did Derek Carr just clear it in a week's time, Yes, he did, But before him there, I don't think it's been like a year year plus since since someone's cleared it that fast quarterback wise at least, So I don't know. Be interesting. You're gonna have to keep your eye out on it. But this is you heard Adam Turnoff talking about it this morning his podcast. Like some of these injury things, especially the concussions, where you kind of thought to know how to handle it week to week, you just can't. You have no idea, You have no idea. So yeah, I forgot. Yeah, that guess is if he doesn't play obviously, all right, what's next? All right? Next up? Jets at Dolphins, Dolphins sight unseen. They play tonight, they host the Titans. Jets. We just talked about Zach Wilson in victory twenty seven of thirty six for three to oh one. How about it, two touchdowns, no picks. We sacked four times, Garrett Wilson nine for one oh eight breeze ten for forty on the ground, eight for eighty six in receptions at a touchdown, Jets out gaining the Texas. We talked about three forty seven to one thirty five. Dolphins will still be I mean, if nothing happens tonight, right, the Dolphins get out healthy tonight, they do what they're supposed to do. They'll be thirteen point favorites, right, something like that. Uh got him at twelve right now?
But yes, I think I think you'll see a similar number to what we're seeing tonight.
Yes, probably well by the end of this, all right, rather than jump into the Kansas City game here, because I want to want to let that person skip ahead one. No, oh, you want to skip ahead one? You want to do that? Yeah, all right, let's skip ahead one. Let's do one, all right. Sunday one. Eastern Giants at Saints. Okay, Giants are four and eight. Giants four and eight. They play tonight they host the Packers. Saints six and seven, though right now they would not be in first place in the NFC South. All right, Saints beat the Panthers. But it's like one of these games where you're like, are the Saints any good at all? After a Carolina No? After Carolina three and out? Blake Group at Yanks a twenty nine yard field will try wide left? Did you see that attempt? Yes, that thing landed in the section in the corner. That was like I think that was a little bit of bad snap, bad hold, and bad kick. Like it was like all three combined. You know the you know the section that dips down into a triangle, like into one seat. That guy caught the ball. Then first for Carolina at their own forty nine, Bryce hit ball up in the air, picked by Pete Warner, but in New Orleans three and out, Carolina obliges with their own three and out short field for New Orleans starting at the Carolina forty four six plays Comarian from nine first play, second quarter, seven to nothing, Saints pinero forty seven yard field w made seven fe three New Orleans punt Carolina three and out. Johnny Hecker then punt block DeMarco Jackson to the house from eight out for New Orleans fourteen to three, Saints four to thirty six left in the second quarter, and then from there it's kind of like, you know, they just cruise right. It's Carolina stopped on downs fourth and one at the New Orleans forty five Brice incomplete. Carr was then picked by Derek Brown in the closing seconds, but Carolina couldn't advance the ball. Then by the way halftime, Bryce Young was three of fifteen for twenty nine and a fumble loss. Carr was ten of fifteen for forty one and a pick by.
The way, right right, Yeah, yeah, there wasn't much more press Yeah.
Third quarter New Orleans punt, Carolina starts to throw on fourteen. They get it to first and goal at the New Orleans one. Here's the Panthers season a nutshell first and goal at the New Orleans one, one yard loss sack incomplete Pinero field goal is good fourteen to six New Orleans. And then after New Orleans three and out, Carolina matriculates Pinero doinks of forty one yardfield goal try. New Orleans would add one more score or two more scores, twenty eight to six. The bottom line in this game is Carolina outgained New Orleans three to zero, three to two oh seven. Car eighteen of twenty six for one nineteen pathetic, Bryce thirteen of thirty six for one thirty seven. New Orleans isn't any good. But they'll be five and a half. But I know that there'll be five and a half right somewhere in there because of what their previous home games against other crappy teams are. Yep, six and a half. Oh even more dirr. I mean, like, look that defense is pretty good. This is bit disgusting. Just show of offense from them all season. What do you mean Jamis were like best so far? I don't know, probably Green Bay at this point. LeBatard is next on the DraftKings Network. We're coming back at VSON more guessing lines, including that Kansas City game. It's a numbers game at VSA. These Sports Betting Network.
And Numbers told the story and they always do one of those analytics.
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander Gone vs. In our number two of a numbers game at Visa Esports Betting Network, Visa dot Com, the VSA app game plus iHeartRadio YouTube TV, all proudly brought to you from bar Canada at the Dada, the Barrage, beautiful downtown Vegas, Gil Alexander, Kelly Biddlin h Kelly. Before retweets, I would like to talk about the scourge of people who are exercising who mishear things you say. Angriest guy in Kentucky. Uh, basically like angry tweeting that I was defending Staley and I said to her, I go no. I said, like, how quickly will Spano's fire Staley right as the final gun? And I said, oh, will people kill Campbell as much as they did Staley back in the day for taking for all those fourth and the downs. And he goes, oh, sorry, I was on a bike. And then Felico's like, did you say that CJ. Stroud won't win Rookie of the Year? No, I said, if he plays like that for the rest of the way, he wouldn't win Rookie of the Year. And he goes, oh, sorry, I'm on a bike. All these people on bike biking and misquoting King and misquoting we get out there and bike. You get tweets from people who are not on bikes. Alan Mitchell gill Is Browning a Dobs sequel or the real thing? Also, what about Pizza Money Flak who come back Player of the Year. Well, we talked about Flacco. I don't hate it, I really don't. I mean, I think Hamlin's gonna get it. But I listen, there are I get the story thirty eight years old off the street so much better than the other guys, dtr and PJ. Walker. But here's the thing again, one bad Flacco game and he's not winning, Like you have to be perfect from here on out. As far as like Browning, being a dob sequel. I don't think so, because Will Browning forget how to play quarterback entirely. I don't think so. Who knows what these guys who knows? I mean, I really don't. I mean Browning is one of those guys too. Where he was it was so bad in college. It's tough to.
Figure out he was so like he was highly recruited, right, he's like one of those historic high school careers if you go back and look at it and then Washington, Yeah, like up and down, and he's just been in what has he been.
In the NFL now for a few years? Why not say it was bad in college? Yeah, I just remember betting against him a lot in winning, Ryan Gold, if the Dolphins and Packers win straight up tonight, I win sixteen hundred dollars in my pick in my pick eight. How would you hedge? Oh God, edging questions, Kelly, I'd say wait for the second game. But yeah, they're concurrent. No one likes I still understand it, Ryan, I listen, at this point, there's no there's nothing clean on either. You don't have a clean straight hey, I mean unless one of those games turns into a blowout. In your favor right in the other one, if there's one, I would tell you take the points, you know, with the with the I wouldn't do to anything. Tillian game. Yeah yeah, I mean you got two to finish it. Bruce do big and Chase Brown's a Canuck and he's a twin. His bro Sidney plays for the Eagles, So we got that going for us. Talking about Chase Brown of the Bengals. This is from Bye Week Picks. Now that Dak is the front runner for the MVP, how about Purty one hundred and fifty to one for Offensive Player of the Year? Great story for myster irrelevant to win an award and historically not always an n quarterback. Bye Week Picks. I actually have Party from earlier in the at seventy five to one to win Offensive Player of the Year. I also have him at sixteen to one to win MVP, and I have Tyreek for MVP at seventy five to one. So the thing is I decided to do the counterintuitive thing earlier was like, I'll take Tyreek for MVP and Purty for Offensive Player of the Year. And then Aaron Shots comes on and tells us, well, he's not gonna vote that way, and so that's why I took the party play. So I can't in good conscience recommend that even though I have it. If that makes sense.
Yeah, what's weird is if I was going to if I was gonna bet that, I get the narrative you're trying to build up. But if you're gonna bet that, I'd do what you did, I would actually bet both then, yeah, because I think the only way he would win that is if somehow these quarterbacks crater and they actually decide to give it the MVP to a non quarterback, which would be Tyreek.
It's an interesting day yesterday because a lot of a lot of the guys who were who were in the front runners for Coach of the Year lost, right, the Demico Ryans and the Shane Steichens of the world. And then with the odds, I don't get the odds, and then Dan Campbell obviously as well, right, like I think he's tied for the short shot. Now he's still up there though, and then like there are people going into last night's game that still thought like Jalen Hurts was gonna win MVP. He's not winning. No, damn MVP. Mike Alvarez. We love Mike. My uncut gems parlay went down to to my favorite team, he said, Jared Goff playing like crap and the cold check Jets outscore at least seventeen NFL teams, Check Raiders alt team total over a half a point X. I was gonna buy you and Kelly something real nice of it. Cash.
We had we had Ben Ben and I live Ben Sunday yesterday. We're on opposite signs on that game. I had the fightings three, the Raiders plus three. We're all right, well buy the Crew Tree exact for whoever wins this kid.
Did you think they were not gonna kick that field goal at the end. I thought they were gonna kick it. I had no problem with what they did though, right yeah, And I had betting wise. I got a two and a half on Saturday, so that was good. Norman Vegas Tennis in Vegas and Nadal and Alcaaz can play at Mandalay Bay. That's nice. Stephen Vegas saying about my Packers suggestion for the division, he goes go check out bam Soid for a better number. Tom Steffan agree with Kelly regarding tie versus win analytics, game flow, in game injuries, many other factors determined had to apply analytics and make best decisions for each specific game. I don't love the four to two in case I made myself. It didn't make myself clear like I get why they're telling you to do it. I don't like it nearly as much as the eight to six.
I appreciate the agreements because I don't know that I made a lot of sense while talking.
I'm not sure you did either, A Joe named Jim. The way to get behind four to two, just mentally forget analytics is to look at it through the lens of it sets you up to win if and when the onside kick comes through in both scenarios you need it only win in one with the field goal. I do think I think I said that, Yeah, yeah, you did. I think that's what most people struggle with too.
Whenever we have these conversations, it's all based around what's the best percentage to win to win in the end, in the end, whether it's regulated.
Over win probability. Whereas your brain is wired to extend the game exactly, which, by the way, doesn't mean it's wired wrong. In my opinion, Jude O'Connor, not sure if you already got to the Chiefs despite the controversial call. Can we just talk about how uncoachable Tony is. Football is a game of inches, but to stand a half foot off the ball won't lose your itch. We'll get into that momentarily. Zach and Cheese fully agree with you, suggesting Packers at nine to one to win the NFC North Gil I took them this past week at fourteen to one. If the Packers went out and the Lines lose, two more, Packers owned the breaker. Yes, I failed to mention that, Professor Shine, how can the pack win the NFC norths when they have to deal with Tommy Cutlets and a research in big Blue in North Jersey tonight? That's true, they lose that, that's out the window. Jesse Welch, I was thinking you guys would throw cold water on Flacco for comeback Player of the Year because I've been throwing twenty dollars bets at one hundred and one all morning. Now I think I need to put one more down. And Lawrence Carter gill good look at the Packers to win the NFC North ten to one at MGM this morning we'll read more tweets later. Let's get to it. What's next, Chiefs at Patriots, Chiefs at Patriots. Oh wow, that's a barn burner. Let's go back to the Patriots recap. Yeah, nothing happened to the Chiefs game Chiefs eight and five Patriots three. After that rousing win on Thursday, Chiefs against the Bills yesterday, game of the week. Build that way, it was all right. Opening drive casey second and five at the Buffalo thirty Mahomes picked on a tip ball by aj Avanessa. Buffalo can't capitalize, though team's trade punts. Buffalo goes fifty three yards, then six plays, Alan to James Cook from twenty five out, seven and nothing Buffalo Bills three forty three left first quarter after a CAC three and out. Buffalo then goes seventy three yards twelve plays, including a fourth and one of Kansas City fourteen Allen to Kincaid heavily improvised hookup for four two plays later, Allen in from six fourteen to nothing. Bills eleven thirty left second quarter after AKC punt, third and fourth their own forty three for Buffalo. Allen picked by Jamari Connor Casey set up at their own forty eight eight three thirty six pardon me leven the second quarter. Nine plays later, McKinnon in from seven one nineteen left. Second quarter, Buffalo has choose the bast sixty two yard field goal try a hail Mary incomplete, so there's your score at the half, fourteen to seven. Third quarter, Bass thirty one yard field goal makes it seventeen to seven. Then Kansas City nine play seventy five yards Mahomes to Rice from four out seventeen fourteen bills three thirty left. Third quarter, Buffalo three and out, Casey second and tend their own forty two mahomes to Rice hit by Christian Benford fumbles, Aaron Johnson recovers the cac forty eight thirty three seconds left. Third quarter, Then a Buffalo three and out, though Butcker twenty seven yard field well makes it seventeen seventeen eleven thirty one to go. We have an eleven and a half minute football game. Buffalo punts after an Allen to Murray twenty one yard gain where Allen was almost out of bounds when he threw it. Murray didn't appear to have established possession the fumble goes out of bounds before anyone recovered. That was a weird play. It didn't matter in the end, but I was like, how's that possession?
It was an incredible play by Josh Allen that basically only Josh Allen can make for everybody that loves to crush him out there. Yes, I don't really, I still don't know what it catches.
I don't know. I have no IDEA catch that certainly was not by anything I've ever seen before. Case three and out. Buffalo starts at their own thirty tai game six fifty seven to go, then matriculate after a Kansas City illegal contact. They end up with first and tenth Kansas City twenty two with two twelve to go. Kansas City has two timeouts and the two minute warning. So what is Buffer do? What's the optimal win probability way to play this? You run, You make Kansas City lose that use their timeouts, and the two minute warning will pass as well. You try to get the first down. If you do, you ice the football game with a chip shot field goal instead incomplete, incomplete two yard game, two minute warning. So Bass hits the thirty nine yard field goal to go up twenty to seventeen. But Kansas City now takes over with both of their timeouts still intact, both of the remaining timeouts. And here's the play that everybody's talking about. We get it, the one twenty five to go Kansas City, second and tend of the Buffalo forty nine, they're down three Mahomes to Kelsey flings it back to Rashi, excuse me to Kadarius Tony touchdown? Did Kelsey really just do that? Unbelievable greatest play I've ever seen? Ballsiest as Patrick Mahomes would call it. Later, doesn't matter. Kadarius Tony lined up in the neutral zone. Oh my god, fourth and fifteen at their own forty six one on one to go my home incomplete, and the Bills win it. Mahomes twenty third in qbr on throws to wide receivers this year, twenty third out of thirty two starters. Now here's the thing. First of all, Dave Cluge, this is Kadarius Tony. This is a this is Adam Driver in a movie promo. That's what Kadarius to movies is from. I don't know what is it from Star Wars Star Wars. I would never know that hosts, I would never know. That's like, I don't bet you kill us and know what this is from. We've never seen Patrick Mahomes angrier after a game. I thought he was screaming at Matt Naggy. At first, me too. I was like holding me too, yes, and then and then they were like, no, he's screaming at the refs. We see. We heard him say to Josh Allen, worst call ever, let us play, he said in the postgame presser. He had time to simmer down. He didn't let us play. Worst call I've ever seen Andy Reid, Yeah, bashing the refs. We'll just say what Tim Hasselbeck said on SVP last night. Love Andy Reid, Love Patrick Mahomes. Youare the best quarterback maybe ever. Apologies, Tom Brady, I get it, You're wrong, He's it is not the reference. It is not the official's job to tell Kadarius Tony that you're offside, and he was so clearly off size. And by the way, I also reject the notion in any sport that you call things differently at different times of gay. Yes, how that drives me crazy, just because it's the key play of the game versus something innocuous in the first quarter. It's still the rule. You're wrong. Buffalo wins at twenty to seventeen. Will talk more about this, including a bet despite everything I just said on the other side. Numbers Game Vison the Sports Betting Network.
A numbers game on the Sports Betting Network.
If you're looking for a betting edge to this college ball season, the VSON experts have got you covered. Become a vcent Pro subscriber with an introductory offer of only nine dollars ninety nine cents. Visent Pro subscribers get access to our daily recap at the top lays made by VSON show hosts and guests, tools like our betting splits let you see where the money and bets are moving every game, and our College Bowl Betting gud where you get picks for every Bowl game. Don't miss out on this limited time offer. Visit vson dot com slash subscribe today to sign up for only nine dollars ninety nine cents. Become part of the sports Betting Network that's vsi n dot com slash subscribe. Gail Alexander Kelly Bilin live from bar Canada at the d Back to that Chiefs game once again, and by the way, good on the Bills. I think I use the term sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear to describe the Bills last week multiple times. Also said they're the team you do not want to let into the postseason because they would be live. I have a terrible exact price on a nine ers to beat Bill's Super Bowl. I had a twenty five to one before this game. You could have gotten it at eighty to one. But back to the Chiefs thing for a second, now, they're not right. Kadarius Tony could have checked with the officials. He didn't. It is not incumbent upon the officials to go out of their way to tell them he's offside, especially by the way, when it's not. Because we brought up the comparison with that Eagles off sides on offense yesterday in the touchbush, that's questionable. This wasn't questionable. Like his foot is past the ball, it's crazy. So you're answering the all twenty two video right now.
He never checks over to the sideline, which those receivers can do all the time. Scheffer's talked about it a post game two They're like, hey, if we're asked about it.
We help these players realign Yeah, never looked over, never went to check. And Mahomes can say, oh, I still want that play in my Hall of Fame induction speech, and he can say it's the basiest played. It was the balls. It was amazing, but it's a call. Now, all of that said, what else did we say on the show last week? Or what else did I say? I said, well, we were going over number one seeds. Kelly that the Chiefs were the best bet to get the number one seed, and I said, even if they lose to Buffalo, your strategy. If you think Buffalo's going to beat them, you should wait. We had this conversation on the show. The Chiefs are ten to one to get the number one seed in the AFC. Now let me just go through this with you. There are two games in the loss column behind both the Ravens and the Dolphins. Baltimore's remaining schedule at Jacksonville at San Francisco Home, Miami home pit Miami's remaining schedule after tonight's game home against Tennessee home Jets, but then home Dallas at Baltimore home Buffalo, Kansas City's remaining schedule at New England home, Las Vegas home, Cincinnati at the Chargers, and by the way, they beat Jacksonville, they beat Miami head to heads, and they would have the best conference record, and they currently do of all these contenders with only two losses. Ten to one on the Chiefs. Think about how you feel about them right now that they lost this game, that they're whining about it, maybe they're Maybe how you feel about them is at a very low point. Ten to one to me, Kelly, based on what I just said right there is actually a pretty darn good bet. I like it too. I like it too, just because I mean, I've been saying it for weeks two. I don't know that I could fully trust that these were this Ravens or Dolphins team. I don't know that there's a pure great team right now in the AFC. So yeah, I don't hate that. Let's rifle through some of these, Okay. Next up, we have Falcons at Panthers. Falcons of Panthers Falcons. We talked about. They outgained the Bucks but lost Ridder twenty six of forty for three forty seven. Bra Vo Desmond Ridder one touchdown won't pick you a sack three times, touchdown on the ground. Drake London ten for one seventy two, including that amazing catch we described earlier. Out gain Tampa Bay four thirty forty two ninety and then Carolina. Bruh, they're one and twelve. Bryce Young thirteen of thirty six for one thirty seven, no touchdowns, no set, no picks, but he was sacked four times. He lost a fumble. They outgained New Orleans and defeat three oh three to two oh seven. I'll say Atlanta minus four and a half on the road. Uh, this is Atlanta minus three and they bet for me me too? Wow? Hold on a second, now, am I am? I in the very strange position of thinking the Falcons are better than the market does. This hasn't happened this year? Go with you many. I think I've bet the Falcons. I bet him two weeks ago. I think that was the first time this year. How many times have we come on this show and been like, boy, the market loves the Falcons. How are they only three here at Carolina? Yeah? I don't I don't know.
I My guess was my guess would have been somewhere where you had it in the dead range.
Oh, that's bad. That's I mean, you can't have it bed. You can't have Atlanta favored by by too many points, too many points just because they're they're gonna win by margin. Carolina is gonna show up one week, right, I don't know, I don't know that they will. So bad, this is so bad? And what what's what? Like? What's the one thing that Landa does well? They run the ball? Well, okay, you're going up against the fourth worst rush defense over at Pro Football folds. I look at Landa. There, that's a bet. What's next? We have a bet, have a bet. Command are into the afternoon window now four oh five Eastern time. Commanders at Rams. Well, the commodoers were on a buy. Thankfully four and nine. They're at the six and seven Rams. The Rams lose to Baltimore in overtime, thirty seven to thirty one, after a Baltimore punt half as steal twenty seven yard field goal three to nothing. Rams. Subsequent trade of punts, first Intend the run forty six for Baltimore, Lamar to a wide open Isaiah likely for fifty four to seven to three Baltimore late first quarter. Then the Rams go seventy five yards. Seven plays Stafford a cup from six out ten to seven Rams, twelve one left second quarter. Then Baltimore goes seventy five yards and five plays Lamar to will wide open Obj for forty six. Makes a great adjustment on the ball, by the way, that was a second great adjustment to that point in the game. Fourteen to ten. Baltimore back and forth nine to forty left second quarter. Then the Rams go seventy five yards after they appeared to be stopped on a third on a three and out rather but Baltimore jumped off sides on a fourth and five at their own thirty the Ram zone. Thirty six plays later, Stafford Davis Allen. Davis Allen was everywhere yesterday. Have you met Davis Allen before? From seven out seventeen to fourteen Rams, five minutes left second quarter. This turned out to be the game of the day in the end. Then first play following drive, Lamar was picked by a Kello Witherspoon that led to a Haver six fifty one yard field goal twenty to fourteen Rams, one forty five left second quarter. Baltimore would answer with a Tucker thirty one yard field goals twenty to seventeen Rams at the half. Third quarter, Rams three and out Tucker forty seven yard field goal knots it up at twenty at piece ten oh two left third quarter, Then after a Rams punt, Baltimore thirty and five at their own fifteen. Lamar not ready for the snap, but goes by him into the end zone. He kicks it out the back safety twenty two to twenty Rams five point fifty two left third quarter, Rams punt Tucker thirty three yard field lit'll put the Ravens up twenty three to twenty two with eleven seventeen to go. Trade of three and outs, Rams go eighty five yards in eight plays. Ravens couldn't stopped him. Stafford to DeMarcus Robinson five out twenty eight twenty three Rams two point conversion fails four to forty one left. Baltimore than matriculates third and seventeen at the Rams twenty one Lamar de Ze touchdown man oh Man seventy five yard thirteen play drive two point conversion is a thirty one to twenty eight Baltimore one's sixteen to go. Stafford picks on Marlon Humphreys to Robinson for nineteen, then a cup for thirty four, already at the Baltimore twenty two. Two plays later, it looks like Humphrey's actually gonna pick it in the end zone. Robinson somehow breaks it up. Great play. Two plays later, half or sick, thirty six yard field goal. We're going over time, thirty one apiece over time, Baltimore three and out. Rams just need a field goal. They have a three and out. Then Ethan Evans punts it Tyland Wallace seventy six yards of the house, aided by perhaps I don't know, couple penalties minimum. No call that girl. I like the Kelly on Primetime Action What was as Matt would talk? What was your You and me had a running joke. We didn't care if we interrupted him. Were like, hey, Kelly, look they threw a flag on that return. Crazy. It happens all the time.
I liked the replay with the I think it's a new tactic that they should pick up Gill because it's not a.
Block in the back. If I'm just like twirling around like a child like whoa I can't control byse by the way, eight people had Baltimore in Survivor Who thirty seven thirty one Ravens win at Stafford twenty three or forty one for two ninety four, three touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked twice Kyra Williams twenty five for one to fourteen Cup eight for one fifteen in a touchdown in defeat Rams two to one to make the playoffs. Kelly, that's a good bet, I think right at this moment again, with four games left in the season, now, for everybody, this is probably the last time we recommend. I recommended two division bets, Green Bay at nine to one in the NFC North Kansas City to one in the AFC West, the Rams at two to one to make the playoffs. The reason being, if you look at the NFC playoff picture right now, I'm sorry, second Kansas City to get the one Can't City get the one seed? Pardon me? Yes? Correct, thank you? Green Bay to win the division? Can City get the one seed? But the Rams to make the playoffs, they're on the outside looking in. The one team ahead of them is the Vikings at seven to six. That you're like, okay, Rams can't overcome them. And the other teams that are six and seven right now, with the Rams are the Falcons, the Saints, and the Seahawks. The rams remaining schedule, let me get that out right here, is favorable. The Rams remaining schedule, with the exception of one game at the end, which is against the Niners. But if you believe the Rams can go three and one, they're home Washington, home New Orleans at the Giants, then the at San Francisco. Maybe there's even a chance that San Francisco has locked up the number one seed. I doubt it, but maybe. But even if you think they're going three and one, you don't think a nine eight Rams team gets in I do. I like it two to one.
We'll do some more, yes, nose tomorrow the AFC has jumbled, obviously, we'll talk more. I think I like that though, Rams minus seven hosting Washington minus six and a half.
There are some sevens out there. I bet the Ovals game. Oh you did, it's a forty eight and a half. Look at you, Ben in total. Yeah, these two teams, I mean, this Rams offense. Man, when these guys, it's just amazing. When it's just it just feels like it's all Stafford cup Nikula, Kyraen Williams. That they are just fired. See that Casha man yesterday? Yeah, oh god, coming back. More games to get to, more value to be extracted numbers, game visa in these sports betting Network Kelly. After the show today, I am headed to the South Point, which I have not returned to since we left. I bought Chrissy my mishpocha. I bought him this Hnika manora maybe like four years ago, the most awesome menory you'll ever see in your life, you know what. I neglected to buy him. Also candles, candles that fit the manora. So I'm actually delivering candles to him that actually fit his manora right after the show today. Exciting, exciting trip to the South Point. I'm bit bag.
I mean, I live right across the streets, so I've been in there a few times. The first time or two it's it's it's weird.
Six and a half years I went there either once or twice a day. Yeah, I know, it's wild. A Joe named Jim we get tweets with regard to Stroud Purty also came back after being in protocol this year, referring to uh, yep, that was my bad. That is accurate. Pretty returned in a week. Yeah, Well, what I was saying was not that st I don't think Stroud's going to be out. What I'm saying is if he played that way, I guess what I was trying to.
Express that he was talking about what I said with clearing the concussion protocol in a week's time, and they had only been done.
It only been done by two guys, two guys. Pretty still minus a majillion to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and justifiably so, just to follow Visen, the chargers are like a gold plated turd, but shaped like a bar of gold. You know it's not a gold bar, but it looks like a gold bar. Then you bet that it's a gold bar, even though you know what it is. I have the chargers, by the way, he says, so did I Three jackahs three one three one. Maybe it's a decent audio. The thing with the misheard quotes it cut out ont of me right as you name that sushi place. Also Karma biting the Chiefs back. Taylor already wrote that song, though Taylor Swift he's referring to nevade'ser Bad Look for the Whiney Chiefs. The NFL created this mess of Casey and titlement by how it allowed last year's AFC title game in Super Bowl to be officiated. When Patrick Mahomes says he believe players should decide the outcome, does he mean his players? Lol? On a week fifteen, Scott New York Mets sixteen the reason why I never miss a minute of a Numbers game quote let the players decide the game. Unquote they did by committing a penalty that the ref should call. Time of game does not matter. Thank you, Gil angriest guy in Kentucky. Yeah, I was on my bike. Man. I made Joe Biden look like Lance Armstrong. He said, trust the glove misdirected anger. It takes many forms. However, I agree that Sean and Payton's are indeed pretenders. Said I'm angry about the Broncos. I'm not angry, Sumner Hutchinson. Yeah, but the Chiefs are minus two hundred to the under eleven and a half wins number one seed. It ain't happening. Well, Sumner, you heard my justification anymore, my reasoning for it. You can choose to follow if you like Brian m If you're going to bet on case to get the number one seed. Don't you wait until after tonight with the assumption Miami wins, then there are two teams two games clear of them. I think the assumption already based on the market, is that they will win, and so I don't think that you wait, actually, because if they win, it's not going to change the Chiefs market price. If they were to lose, you'll get a worse price. Does that make sense? I don't think you wait till after tonight's game. I think you're yeah, I think you're right. It would it be bett now because it's not gonna It wouldn't adjust much. Maybe it does a little bit, but not much incremental versus perhaps dramatically.
Right, but your bet is in a much better position all of a sudden if they happen to lose.
Correct, So yeah, I would bet it now. I'm with you, all right? What's next week at games?
To get to Yeah, we do forty nine ers at Cardinals four or five, Easter.
Ten and three nine ers three and ten Cardinals who were on a buy as well, only them in Washington were on a buy. Nobody with buys anymore. Everybody's on the same same level right now in terms of games played, thirteen games played. Niners first play against the Seahawks, McCaffrey for seventy two and Jordan Mason in for four seven and nothing Niners. Before you could blink, you're like, oh, the route is on, but no Seattle eight plays seventy five yards Drew Lock, who we learned just about an hour and a half before game time. Oh, by the way, Gino's not playing, it's gonna be Drew Lock locked to DK for thirty one, seven to seven, nine to forty four left. First quarter after San Francisco three and out, Seattle three nout, San Francisco three, now Meyers forty yard field goal, ten to seven Hawks, fifty two seconds left, first quarter. San Francisco first intent of the Seattle forty eight Perty picked off a tip that was intended by for Auk, bounced off Ayuk into Julian Love's hands, but then after Seattle punt they could not capitalize. San Francisco eighty three yards and five plays Perty to Debo for fifty four fourteen to ten, nine Ers eight eighteen left second quarter. Best team in football have been for a long time now. After Seattle punt fourth and two at the San Francisco forty seven with five twenty three left, they decided they'd punt. You're playing the Niners, go for it, come on. Then San Francisco punt. Then San Francisco, having Seattle pinned all their timeouts, they decide they're like they're content to go to halftime, which I thought was very strange too on Kyle Shanahan's part. So it was like Carol and Shanahan just like hold my beer. Third quarter, it's still fourteen to ten at this point, Seattle three and out, San Francisco punt, Seattle punt. Then San Francisco's like, okay, enough of this. Seventy five yard seven plays book ended by perty Dayuk for forty five, debo in from one at the end twenty one to ten nine ers late third quarter, Then Seattle three plays seventy eight yards locked to Kolbe Parkinson for twenty five made it twenty one to sixteen. That two plays after an incredible lock to Walker twenty seven yard play in which Walker crossed the field from right to left after seemingly being hemmed in. Two point conversion failed though closing seconds of the third quarter, so it's twenty one to sixteen into the fourth quarter, then the Niners three plays seventy five yards just enough of that Purty to Debo for thirty two plays later to Kittle for forty four twenty eight to sixteen. First play, next drive, Lock would be picked by Jay R. Brown. Second play for the Niners. Second fourth thrown forty four Perty two. I Yuke for thirty one, but then uh Love slapped the ball down out of his arm. Fumbles. Reek Woolen recovered thirteen oh four to go trade of punts, then Drew Lock picked deep by Fred Warner. Dk Metcalf loses his mind. He gets tossed as this Lenoir Diamador San Francisco would run out the clock ball game Perty nineteen of twenty seven for three sixty eight two touchdowns one picky sack three times, McCaffrey sixteen for one forty five Debo seven for one forty nine touchdown, five hundred twenty seven total yards for the Niners. By the way, can we run that tweet about the Niners? This comes to us, I want to get the oh is Aaron Shotts sweet? That's right, Aaron Shotts will be on the show this week. The Niners are now the number five best team ever tracked by DVOA through thirteen games. The Ravens are the eleventh best team all time through thirteen games, despite in the Ravens case dropping a bit. This week not listed the nineteen eighty seven Niners because they only played twelve games in a strike year, but the Niners are the fifth best team ever by Aaron Shots Proprietary DVOA through thirteen games. The two thousand and seven Patriots and the ninety one Skins, the two greatest teams of all time Pick your team, are one and two. The Niners are fifth. Does your eye test corroborate that for both the Niners and the Ravens are one or the other, that they're in the top eleven more than Niners? For sure, I would believe I would agree with the Niners.
Yeah, I guess I'm still surprised by the way Ravens still hanging around in there, because remember he had them the best through like five games or Yeah, they were way up there early, So maybe some of that's just coming down from there.
Well, remember with the Ravens, they blew out some teams that were thought to be good, right like Seattle Detroit. I don't know if those teams are as good as we thought they weren't. That right, it's the only thing but the Niners fifth best of all time at that point. Oh, by the way, so I'll say San Francisco minus ten and a half here on the road thirteen and a half. That feels a little high to that, I know.
So this is what's getting tough with these games, right, because I almost did it yesterday too, where you're.
Like, how much is too much? I didn't touch it, Like even when I doubt I'll touch this even though I think it's too this is the same thing. I didn't end up touching it. But I mean we were on the air yesterday, me and Bet.
I'm like fifteen points, Like this is a lie that you're that you're giving Seattle and then the same thing you're Arizona at home. I bet you this only goes one way. I bet you're going to see fourteen here, and I bet you I'm still not going to bet it. One thing that never happens on the show. I was going back. I was like, Okay, what do I like best betting wise?
And I'm like, okay, I like Atlanta at Carolina, I like Green Bay. I think is assuming nothing happens bad tonight to them. Injury wise, I like Green Bay. And then I was like, what was the Kansas City? What was the Kansas City line? And then we both started laughing. We're like, I don't think I ever guess, never guessed the line. Kansas City minus seven and a half at New England.
Yeah, you're low there too. It's nine and a half even ten some places.
Now. I think if it's below ten, I might take Kansas City, even though my guess is low. I think I like Kansas Yeah, I was hoping.
I was hoping it'd be a little lower for a teaser possibility.
Yeah, they ain't going there. It's only gonna go one way, all right. By the way, Perty, just before we get to the last games on the other side, Dak Prescott after last night is the MVP short shot, Perty is second. Do you agree with that? Yeah? Yeah, but I think those two are neck and neck. I'll just say this and again full disclosure. I have a Rock Party ticket. I do not have a DAC ticket. But the Cowboys schedule is such that Purty's got to be the fit. Like, if you're betting right now, you shouldn't be betting dak to me, I don't disagree with you. I'm not so sure you'd be betting Purtty at this price either, but if you had to bet one of them, it should be pretty based on the remaining schedule. Because the Cowboys, I think it is more likely that he ends up winning it. Yes I do. I agree with Dakne the favorite though right now, Yes I do. I'll tell you what It's going to be interesting when we do our power rankings tomorrow. I think this is the first time this year where there are going to be some major changes, not at one and two but after that. Yeah, which which has been pretty steadfast as some combination of Chiefs and Eagles to this point. Boy, Eagles have problems and the Chiefs are just not as good as they were. They could still be the number one seed. That's the conundrum of all this. For issue Spence Wild the receiver. The receiver's just terrible. It's terrible. How about Romo saying it out loud? He's like, can they cost their team games more ways than they do? We'll finish it up more games. Get to next.
Numbers game on the Sports Betting Network.
College bole season is here and Vson has an early Christmas present for you. Not a vcent Pro subscriber, you had no problem. We're giving away this year's College Bowl Betting Guide to everyone. We got spreads, totals and expert picks from the Goal League Steve Mackintt and Brent Musburger for every single bowl game put a bow on this bowl season. Get a free copy of our Vsent College Bowl Betting God, absolutely free. Visit vson dot com Slash Bowl Guide and get your free copy today. And those guys starting with Matt Ewman's, Adam Burke, Wes Reynolds, they do such a great job. Yeah, killing each and every free free don't cost you nothing. We get tweets of beating the book, Kevin Ryan Gil might that question you asked Kelly before the break? Did you see that catch in a Kua? Mate have been a plug and a coup offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Marlene Ponce or Marlene Ponse. She sent us this h this parlay and like a nine leg parlay in Espanol, which I guess lost, And she's saying to us what should I do? Should I stop playing? Do I enjoy suffering? I'm a Cardinals fan Marlene, I'm just happy we have a female listener. That's it. What do you think our percentage of female listeners is? I know what you're talking about. Females like our tweets all the time on here. Steve pick love guessing lines with Gil. Just gotta zoom right by that.
I'm sorry, I was like, wait time you but females like our tweets all the time on here.
Oh oh, now I understand what you're saying. Ever since Elon Musk took over, we have so many listeners. That's right, agriest guys still trying to figure that one out. Steve Feesick love guessing lines with Gil. Best year ever for the show, Thank you man. I appreciate that Buddhist man Jacksonville going for he's talking about somebody else there. Oh. Stephen Kellig brings up a good point about that. Aaron Shotts list of best teams through thirteen weeks in DVO eight goes. The number four team on that list was the nineteen ninety eight thirteen in Obroncos. They came into the Giant, came into Giants Stadium and lost as thirteen and a half point favorites to ken To Graham and the g men any given Sunday for sure. By the way, A couple thought exercises this from Michael Manisano. I think there's a great hypothetically says, if Stroud doesn't play the rest of the year, does he still win Offensive Rookie of the Year? Great question. I'm gonna say no, Yeah, I'm gonna go cop out answer. It depends on what others do. Most notably Puka Ku is other one. When people agree that Dak should be the favorite for MVP, what is the one statter thing that makes him the favorite over Purdy? His implication there being there ain't none. S want to point that out, all right? Next or twenty five Eastern Cowboys that Bills last game we didn't give the last game that we haven't really described. Dallas crushes Philly last night, the ten and three Cowboys at the seven and six Bills. What a game? This is? Oh implicaziones. I don't know if that was Italian. Dallas ten plays, seventy five yards Dak to Lamb from thirteen out seven to nothing, Cowboys ten minutes left, first quarter, Philly first and twenty at Dallas thirty one. Hurts stripped by Donovan Wilson, who recovers it as well. Five point forty two left the first quarter. Dallas fourth and two at the Philly forty four polloed for four, then they settle for an Aubrey sixty yard field goal ten to nothing. Cowboys. I'm like, what is he doing? Oh? That was a great call, dude, that this kid is incredible. This kid is unbelievable. Ellie at fifty two yard field go after a fake pun extent of the drive, but aj Brown couldn't haul in a Hurtz pass that went right through his hands on the play before, so that made it ten to three. Dallas started their own twenty five seventy five yards twelve plays dowble in from one seven to seventeen to three, Dallas six to fourteen left second quarter, Elliott forty four yard field going to make it seventeen to six, but then Dallas eight plays seventy five yards Dack to gallop for one out twenty four to six of the half. Kelly, Philly not only looked slower than the Cowboys, which we probably expected, but they just looked like they had no energy. Yeah none. Dallas looked like I had so much more than them. Philly third quarter, first and ten, their own forty nine hurts to aj Brown, Gilmour strips Brown, Timon Clark recovers a couple three and outs. Dallas third and ten their own forty five Dak hit by Flesher Cox fumbles Jalen Carter scoop and score the only Philly highlight of the night to make it twenty four to thirteen. But it was short lived because then Aubrey hits a fifty nine yard field goal to make it twenty seven to thirteen. He's the first player in history to make two field goals of fifty nine or more in a game. I did not know that really until they said it. Wow last night, Perfect on the year.
My favorite tweet I saw all weekend that was that Brian Kelly was so bad, such a bad coach at Notre Dame that he didn't even figure out that the best football player was playing the wrong sport.
So true, so true. By the way, Aubrey then hits a forty five yarder, he hits another one from fifty. He's thirty for thirty lifetime. It's wild. Let me just give you if they roll about there right like that second one they Rolledhi out there. I was like, whoa, this is kind of aggressive, But nope, no problem. No, let me just give you historical context. When Mark Moseley won the NFL MVP in nineteen hundred and eighty two in a strike shortened year. Yes, a kicker won MVP for Washington. He hit a unheard of twenty seven kicks in a row, twenty seven field goals in a row. These guys do that all the time. Now this dude starts his career with thirty in a row and their missiles. Yes, yes, it's incredible. I mean, you were neither one of those last night? Were you concerned about the long one day? Were Dalla up? Dallas wins this game thirty three to thirteen. Philly doesn't score an offensive touchdoup for the first time since the Wildcard game in twenty nineteen. Dak twenty four twenty four of thirty nine for two to seventy one. Eight straight home games for the Cowboys with thirty plus points, and we already talked about the Bills in victory Josh Allen twenty three or forty two for two thirty three against the Chiefs, James Cook was all over the box score ten of fifty eight, ten four to fifty eight. I should say in the ground game five catches for eighty three yards and a touchdown. I will say all that said, Buffalo minus two and a half.
Yeah, this kind of just reopened here a little bit ago. We're one and a half at DraftKings. A lot of two's out there though. On Buffalo Buffalo minus two.
I think I think I'm playing Buffalo. I think I'm playing Buffalo, babe. Yeah, that line's interesting to me. I think I think that's pretty spot on to me. Okay, Sunday Night is the best Dallas team in a long time. Yes, Yes, they are playing very very good football right Sunday Night. Ravens at Jaguars ten and three Ravens eight and five Jaguars. This also has implications. Baltimore Lamar in victory was twenty four forty three for three sixteen, three touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked twice eleven carries for seventy obj four for ninety seven in a touch eight hundred and fifty nine total yards of offense in that game against the Rams for both teams. Trevor Lawrence in defeat against the Browns twenty eight to fifty for two to fifty seven, three touchdowns, three picks, four sacks. Baltimore by three on the road.
That's where it opened. We're up to three and a half everywhere now in Baltimore.
Ah damn Yeah. Monday Night Eagles at Seahawks. By the way, I don't know if you know this, Kelly, that game's in Duval County. What was the Monday night game? It's Eagles and Seahawks ten and three Eagles six and seven Seahawks. Seahawks on life support Hertz yesterday in defeat, eighteen of twenty seven for one to ninety seventy lost to fumble. By the way, do you know the Eagles defense is last in pressure rate since thereby and last in third down defense. They can't get anybody off the field Seattle. Drew Locke was pretty good yesterday, twenty two of thirty one for two sixty nine, two touchdowns, two picks. He was sacked four times, but they gave up five hundred and twenty seven totally yards to the Niners. I'll say the Eagles by four on the road, three and a half. Right now, it's what we're looking at, which is kind of interesting.
I want to I'm interested to see where that line moves throughout the week.
All right, So I this is it's not a it's not a week I love, It's not a week I hate it somewhere in between. But I do like the Falcons. I think I like the Bills not as much as the Falcons, but the Falcons is the one that clearly jumps off the base. And I think Green Bay, to me, assuming no injury tonight, sort of jumps off the page hosting Tampa Bay now considering how good they've looked the past two weeks, Green Bay, do you need to see them crush the Giants tonight or any kind of win you think? No, I just need to see Jordan Love be as good as he's been. They win by ten and he looks great. I'm good with it, gotcha. I mean as a road primetime game, I don't expect them to win by twenty, but I do want them to cover in millions For me, Yeah, I mean, they've looked so good the past two weeks.
I think I'm like, I'm expecting some kind of regression at some point, but like, man, I don't know, Maybe there's just just they're just this team that took this long to get this hot.
And good luck to the to the seven survivors who have the Packers tonight and the one who has the Dolphins. Again, we'll start, we'll finish the show we started, which is there are twenty one entries left in Survivor eight pending tonight. Wait, how does that make sense? Eight penning tonight? Maybe I have the math wrong. There's seven Packers, there's one Dolphins. That's eight. That's eight. I got that part right. But also the Lions lost, So there's twenty one currently. Okay, there's twenty one currently, but eight pending tonight. That's right, twenty one currently but eight penning tonight. So either twenty one get through anywhere between thirteen to twenty one get through tonight. Right now, with twenty one left each remaining entry four hundred and forty one two hundred and eighty five dollars and seventy one cents. Oh boy, you know what I'd like to do this week? I'd like to get Joe Pete in here to talk Survivor and how really in terms of his hedging theory, but also like when we talk about optimal picks. This is from a Wall Street guy who has been in many a viral contest what was the way to play this this week? Because one could argue that the way to play it was to take one of the games tonight, so that you would have had perfect information in terms of thinking of a hedge, right, so everybody else would have had. You know, there's there's thing play out. Imagine if there was only a handful of entries left, but seven people ended up with a packer. So it'll be interesting to see what happens tonight.
Yeah, I wonder how much of that came into their thinking, right, If I'm thinking that maybe others a thing.
I mean, there's a whole bunch of that. There's a lot of Princess Bride in there. You think that I'm gonna take it like this? You know that I think that, Yeah, there's a lot of that, or people just don't think of these things at all, and they just thought like, no, I'm gonna take this team. Good luck to everybody. Adam Burke, congratulations, VSA Zone, he's already through. I don't know about our guy, Jonesy. I gotta figure out about that. Da Bagdad Bada, the Fat bandag,