The NFL playoffs are here! Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon give their thoughts on every game of Super Wildcard Weekend on Monday's Beating The Book. What are their initial thoughts on the games? Also, what direction should the Commanders go for their head coaching vacancy?
The Numbers told the story they always do. It'swando's idiots who believe in the analytics.
This is a Numbers game with Gil, Alexander, gone Vson.
Good Monday morning to you.
It is a Numbers game live from bar Canada at the d Gil Alexander, Kelly Midland Vsin app VSA, dot Com, Game plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course the DraftKings Network.
Good morning to you, sir, buddy. How you doing?
Wildcar Week? Excited championship game tonight, Wildcar Week.
Let's go right in to roll.
This ranks pretty high up in the Great weeks. Oh yeah, of the sports and sports betting calendar.
This is always one. You know, we always have the conversation around October. I'm always in this window more than October. I love October is a month. This is a week, pretty good. Yeah.
Six NFL playoff games, the championship game tonight. In college football, Chris Philka will join us the Bear to talk Washington and Michigan. Get his thoughts as the money keeps coming in on Michigan. Michigan up to about a five point favorite now census in the National Championship with a total at fifty seven. We'll talk to the bear later, as we do each and every Monday, and no longer guessing lines. I'll tell you what I did guess with these six Wildcard games. Two on Saturday, three on Sunday, one on Monday. Don't forget Kelly exclusive peacock windows Saturday night unless you're in Kansas City in Miami, then you get to watch it locally on regular TV. Otherwise you got to get yourself some peacock for the Chiefs and the Dolphins before we get to that, as we do with each Monday.
That's how it works. They're doing it on local. Yeah. Yeah, you're in Miami and Kansas City, you're good.
Yeah. Otherwise you better get your better get your peacock money in.
There, ready to go.
This is so here's the story we always talk about Survivor. First, congratulations to the four finalists, the four people who made it to the Promised Land and Survivor. They were the ones that chopped up out of the nine point two six seven million dollars. They chopped up seven point five of it originally seven point five, no, seven million of it originally one point seven to five each. Then they did a second chop for an additional million to get to eight here prior to this last week, all four get through and it is a perfect chop for Circus Master Indiana, Jet Jax, Jags and La Jones are our guy, Greg Jones. Congratulations to all who split that up four ways two point three plus million dollars. Mazzle too of to u all, Oh well done. The line I remember is when Greg was on here and I said to him, I go, this sounds like it was more stressful than the contest itself in terms of monitor He before getting finished the sentence, He's like, oh, you have no idea, So going to do one more shot with the documentary with Sha Lansky after this being crack. Congratulations to all four of those. What a ride it must have been. I hope everybody monetized well and responsibly. And then, of course a Saint thirty one in circum million came down to the last game yesterday for whoever had that entry. They needed the Buffalo Bills to get it done. Last night, the Bills come from behind, win cover over the Dolphins, gets it done. One million dollars for Saint thirty one, sixty two and a half points out of a possible what is that?
Ninety man? Is that what it is? Ninety? Yeah? Eighteen times five? Yeah, ninety So good on him. They were partying last night over at Cirga.
Oh, congratulations to all. Just wanted to bring that to a close and the greatest contest there there are, And good lord, who knows how many entries there's going to be in Survivor next year? Nine point twenty six seven million might seem like a pittance when we look back at it next year and years coming up. The other thing I want to point out, as we always start the NFL season by saying, you know, the best market to bet in is alternate season win totals. Little inventory as the regular season comes to a close before we get into these playoff games. Of the thirty two NFL teams, Kelly of the thirty two, thirteen teams ended up with a difference of two and a half games or more between their pre flop season win total and.
What they actually it up to. Incredible.
Thirteen teams two and a half games difference, and additional ten teams were one and a half games or more away from their pre flop season win totals. That's twenty three out of thirty two. Now, that sounds like a lot, and it is, but you know, it's not as many as another seasons.
I was gonna say, I was just I was trying to look back at my look back at some of my stuff that've because you got over there.
Yeah, you got nine that were really tight to their season win total. The fact that we're ten within one and a half is pretty big too. So like, for instance, my giant season alt under under six and a half plus oney eighty five that I thought was just gonna coast.
Home barely got there at the end. Yep.
You know. So anyway, even in a down year like this down in quotes, thirteen of the thirty two ended up two and a half difference delta, by the way, the biggest difference between season win total pre flop and their resulting season win total actual Carolina five and a half below what they projected to get there.
It's incredible. I was just trying to think off to when you were asking that, I didn't even know the answer. I would not have.
Guessed the Panthers two versus seven and a half. And the second biggest difference the Chargers.
Yeah, okay, yeah, that what makes sense?
The Chargers, who played seven games, lost seven games of three points or fewer in the margin. They had a season win to pre flop of nine and a half. They ended up with just five wins. By the way, that's to the bad to the good. The biggest difference the Texans and the Rams, both three and a half games better than their pre flop.
Season win total. Kelly, shall we do it? Should we steal it? Just do it?
One by one? Wold Card weekend guess it line? Oh yeah, not at actual guessing lines, more just here's what I did.
Guess There you go Saturday. Do you like the schedule? By the way, two three and one? Yeah, yeah, I think so. Wow, someone else hating on it this weekend. I was shocked by that. I love it.
They prefer three to three, Yeah.
They prefer three three.
I'm okay with the two three one's good? Yeah you I love it. Yeah, I love I was shocked to hear someone complaining about it. It's a little awkward for me Saturday morning though, when I have nothing, like I'm like, I like looking to do. What do I do with my hands? Yeah, but we've said that before, Like, yeah, three games on a day, it's gets exhaust and then you're like back to back days. Wait till like the International London window becomes more of a regular thing and we're four time slots every Sunday. All right, Saturday afternoon, this will be four to thirty Eastern one thirty Pacific time. Browns at the Texans Texans early Saturday slot once again the official Houston Texans Saturday early window for the postseason. I'm surprised at not playing the Bengals. Saould be the one that's hilarious. Texans always get wedged in to this one. Sorry Texans. What a year for the Houston Texans. First of all, Browns get there as the five seed. They had already had the five seed clinched before yesterday. They went with Jeff tres School and he was not really ready for prime time. No need to get into that game. Cincinnati housed Cleveland as Cleveland just played out the string with nothing to play for Houston. By the way, AFC North, it should be pointed out though, before we move on to Houston First Division have all teams finished with a winning record since nineteen hundred and thirty and five.
Who could forget that?
What a season it was. I'm gonna say that Bengals were the best team that didn't make the postseason, with like apologies to like Seahawks and other teams like that. I think the Bengals because of the Borough injury and they still ended up with a winning record. Yeah, Houston on a Saturday. Congratulations to Tomiko Ryans. Congratulates to c J. Stroud. Let me just start there. I think Demiko would get my Coach of the Year vote, and I think Stroud despite having all my puoka, you know, my puka bet, I still think CJ.
Stroud is the guy there. I don't think those two awards well.
I mean some people are gonna argue about coach of the Year for sure, that's a legit argument. Maybe the guy on the other side of the ball here is your choice. Stefanski, Kevin Stefanski. Houston did it on Saturday. The first half was book ended after it was three to nothing Indianapolis, one play Stroud to Nico Collins seventy five yards, seven to three. That was a portent of things to come. They bookended that half with a eight play fifty seven yard drive that ended with twenty six seconds excuse me, with one to fifty seven left in the second quarter. Stroud to back from when I was fourteen to three. Houston at that point fourteen to six, was to score at the at the half. Indianapolis, if you recall early second quarter, though, got with it and they tied up the game at fourteen apiece. And the key moment of this game, it's gonna get sort of washed in history because everybody's anyone's thinking about Houston and no one's thinking about the Colts anymore. But remember Kelly was fourteen apiece and Shane Stiken decided to roll Matt Gay out there for a fifty seven yard field goal.
Doink.
Indianapolis had all the momentum at that point in the game, tied with the ball. Fairbairn came down hit a fifty one yard to give the Texans a three point lead. Gay did hit a thirty five yard field goal to tie it up at seventeen apiece, but then Stroud went to work twelve play seventy three yards singletary in from three to twenty three seventeen. Houston was six twenty to go. Remember Fairbear missed the pat wide right. The door was open, but on that drive c J. Stroud as if he needed to just ram it home that much more. Seven of seven for eighty two. Texans converted a second in twenty and a first in twenty and a first downs on that game winning drive. And then it came down to the end. Indianapolis had fourth and one at the Houston fifteen minshew incompletely threw it behind Tyler Goodson. He couldn't corral it, and that because Steichen had used the time out, had wasted a time out before this. That was Katie bar the door. Houston ends up winning it after they take a safety. Pitchy. There was no miracle. Pitchy, pitchy, Woo woo twenty three nineteen Texans. They waited a day to see if the Jags would win. The Jags loss, sorry Kelly good Time momentarily, and Houston ends up winning the AFA North get themselves a home playoff game. Stroud was twenty of twenty six for two sixty four, two touchdowns, no picks. He was only sacked choice and Nico Collins nine for one ninety five in a touchdown. What a game for him. I guessed Cleveland minus two and a half despite all that, because they got the best unit on the field of that defense.
Yeah, so opened open most places one and a half. We are up to two and a half now, uh, and it is it is a juice two and a half. I think that's the rest places. It is moving towards the three on that Cleveland side, I think the only one. The only thing that's interesting about that is what whether when these two teams played just a couple of weeks ago, right, it was like three and a half Cleveland with Davis Mills in there at quarterback for Houston. So that's that's notable. I think.
Yeah, so you lost, so your jacks are started to bring this up. You're Jacksonville AFC South Bets somehow lost after they were eight and three, shaking his head, and they end up just studying it.
It's not even like this past week. It's just like you look at their schedule and you're.
Like one, just one win, the slow death of it, and then this and then your Steelers all your unders none of all.
What did I I had up in the area yesterday Steelers Steelers under nine wins, So that's out out the window. This weekend, Jags win, the division that loses and then the one sort of longer shot Seahawks to make the playoffs, all of them.
By the way, the Seahawks season win total coming down to that final sequence. Yeah, yesterday against the Cardinals, pray are missing too.
I think there was a couple of guys. I was sitting here doing the doing Live Best Sunday with Jared Smith. He had the let me get this right, the.
Under right, the under on the Cardinals win total, and the Cardinals in the gabe yesterday Will Will Hill. He had a whole thing too with that three AFC games preceding three NFC games.
Will get to it next. Here are three reasons Zen is America's number one nickeoteam pounch. We use food grade ingredients. We have a wide selection of varieties and they all come in two strengths. Find Zen at a store near you morning.
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Numbers game on the Sports Betty Network.
Starts your morning with a daily dose of winning strategies, insider tips, and the latest buzz with a free vs in daily newsletter. Let me repeat that free. In today's newsletter, among other stories, talk about the National title game tonight between Michigan and you Dub everybody's got a pick. You give your pick.
Kelly not't bet anything preflaw. Everybody but Kelly has a pick in there.
I got washing it plus the points. I also sprinkling a little on the money line there. Yeah. See if Felika counters that a little later on, I Betty will get expert analysis the latest odds delivered straight to your inbox, absolutely free once again. Visit vson dot com slash newsletter to subscribe. Remember there's an old Saturday Night Live when Eddie Murphy this is before you tell Eddie Murphy was playing Velvet Jones and it's all live. So he uh, he was supposed to say a subscription instead he said prescription, and he realizes I'm saying. He goes and a subscription to subscription Visa dot com slash newsletter.
Subscription bill on that. Uh, Bill's a little logo on that on that graphic. I always seen him with a popped collar like.
An SVP country.
Yeah. Yeah, good for him. Okay.
By the way, a couple of things. One three AFC playoff games before the three NFC games. I mentioned that on the way to break. I don't remember that ever happening to me either.
That was very odd, a.
Little scheduling quirk there. Cleave Ta guest of this show, guest of the Megapod yearly and G's, you know, one of the best Twitter football follows there is. I might proclaim him the best, but I'll just say one of the best.
He's a he's a go to season preview guide that you that you have to get that.
Every single year, every year. So he he reminds, because I was just talking about, you know again, thirteen teams two and a half game delta from their pre flop season win total, ten other teams one and a half, which by the way, isn't as much as in past years, but still even in a quote unquote down year, think about that in terms of alternate season win totals before the season. Now, clift Ta reminds us this morning that before the season started, he sent out this tweet. He said, there's been at least one team. This is in August, he sent there's been at least one team to make the NFL playoffs with the preseason win total of below five hundred in each year since the year two thousand. In nineteen of the twenty three years prior to this year, at least two made it again pre flop season win total of below five hundred. Last year, three teams made the postseason, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Giants, and the Seattle Seahawks. And then what he did was he threw out the thirteen teams that had a below five hundred season win total in other words, eight games or fewer, eight wins or fewer, and he asked us to choose which team or teams we thought would get there. I'm still seeking the answer because I don't remember who we picked, but he's gonna let us know. This year, though, the answer to the question of how many did make it four four teams with three flap season win totals of below five hundred expected win percentage that has made the playoffs below five hundred expected win percentage made the playoffs. So eight wins or fewer. Green Bay, Houston, the Rams, and the Bucks all got there.
That as wild as wild, I was just pulling up his actual his preview guide from this past season because he this is where he had documented the no you know, percentage of teams off by two or three wins with the win totals. So twenty twenty two sixty six percent of teams win totals off by two or more games, thirty eight percent by three or more twenty twenty one, forty seven percent, thirteen percent twenty twenty, sixty three percent, and thirty one percent.
Well that was pandemic here, right, Yeah, yeah, that's gonna happen. Then let's do our second game on Saturday, the Peacock game. What we got.
Dolphins at Chief Saturday night?
Cleave just tweeted bag Goes, I don't remember what you picked either. I have no idea what we picked. I'd love to know. If somebody knows, please let me know.
All right, it's the six seed Dolphins.
Imagine, after all that, after that whole season, fastest team ever hard knocks in season, just the hype, the seventy point game in the end, the Dolphins. And you can blame it on a spate of injuries at the end. That's certainly part of it. Other teams dealing with injuries too, but the Dolphins certainly got their share. They end up with a six seed in a road game, wildcar weekend at Kansas City, where the temperature at most is supposed to be in the single digits. That's fahrenheit Boys and Girls Fahrenheit at Kansas City. Kansas City was locked into a three seeds, so no need to talk about them. They sort of played kickball with the Chargers and ended up winning that game somehow, because that's what always happens with the Chargers they lose. But the Dolphins last night in that strange situation where if they win, they are a champion of a division. If they lose, they fall deep down, and that's what happened. The Bills, by the way, had the same situation, they would have won the division with the win last night, which is what they got, or they fell. By the way, it was a game for seeding. Had things gone differently before last night, it would have had much more drama. Would have been a winner in or a division championship or out sort of thing for the Bills that didn't materialize. Early yesterday to a first drive third and seven at thrown forty four picked by Christian Benford, first drive of the game, then Allen returns it. As the Bills matriculate down the field, third and goal at the Miami five, Alan throws a horrible pick to Eli Apple where he's not even looking where he's throwing it.
And then Eli Apple had a lot of real estate but slipped so he just barely got out of the end zone.
Buffalo's next drive, Allen missed a wide open Stefan Diggs deep. Then they did matriculate, but fourth and two at the Miami thirty five Allen was picked in the end zone by Sean Elliott. Another just ridiculous sort of play from Josh Allen and the oh my god, can you believe people had this guy? As the MVP texts started.
Around, Yeah, I love these types of games because that was that was bad Josh Allen.
First half, It sure was Miami. Subsequently, eleven play eighty yard drive, they went up seven to zhering eight hn N from twenty five. Bills answered Alan to Trent Sherfield off the deflection, dragged his toes in the back of the end zone type and a tied up at seven apiece. Dolphins scored again to it a ty Reek from three out on a nine play seventy five yard drive with one forty three left in the second quarter, fourteen to seven Dolphins, and then Cook dropped a This is the last sequence of the first half. James Cook dropped a pass that would have been a touchdown walking into the end zone. Then a ridiculous Miami defensive formation on third and tenth the Miami twenty three that resulted in a first and ten at the eleven with eleven seconds left for the Bills, and then Allen returns the favor in the field of play. He goes to Ty Johnson with no timeouts left, He's hit short of the goal line by Apple fourteen to seven Dolphins into the locker room. What a sequence for the Bills. Allen still threw for two hundred and eighteen yards and they had two hundred and eighty six total yards. The Bills did at offense of offense, even though they were trailing by the way, Gabe Davis hurt along the way, Let's keep our eye on that. A lot of injuries. Talking about you, Dan Campbell. We're coming up to that third quarter. Van Ginkel got hurt for the Dolphins on the opening drive. I mean, can the Dolphins lose more players on defense? Geez, Miami three and out? That Buffalo matriculated third and thirteen though with the Miami twenty one, Allen got sacked by Christian Wilkins. He fumbled it and Wilkins recovered more of the same for Buffalo, but then finally the game changed. On the Jake Bailey subsequent punt Deontay Hardy ninety six yards of the house tied up at fourteen with thirteen forty two to go, and then it was as if Miami couldn't do anything. Miami three and out, Buffalo eight plays seventy four yards fur fifty two off the'clock Allen and Knox from five out, and the Bills leaded twenty one at fourteen. Another three and out for Miami, their fourth consecutive punt for the for the first time all year. What a time to do It was six fourteen to go.
Wow.
Then Buffalo had a fourth in inches at their own thirty five. Allen got two yards, then third and thirteen Allen converted. There was a penalty on Jalen Ramsey anyway, then fourth and went at the Miami thirty seven two minute warning. Allen fails to convert to Miami did get the ball back down seven, taking over at their own thirty seven with one to fifty three to go. Remember, contests were on the line for this drive right here. They get it to the Buffalo forty with one seventeen left and then Tuah throws it into bracketed coverage to chase Claypool and Taylor rap picks it off.
Ballgame.
Bills win the AFC East to a seventeen of twenty seven for one to seventy three, with the Dolphins finish one in five versus teams with winning records this year. Is that right?
Sounds right?
Four seventy three to two seventy five total yards disadvantaged for Miami. They only had the ball twenty one fifty three of the sixty minute clock. Miami eight and nineteen straight up the last Okay, This is from Evan Abrams over at the Athletic Excuse me, over the Action Network. Pardon me, pardon me, Evan Evan over the Action Network. Miami eight and nineteen straight up the last twenty years and sub forty forty degree weather. He gets that from bet Labs. And here's another thing from Evan Abrams. These are the three coldest games in Tua's career. If we could flash that back up twenty nine degrees December of last year against the Bills they lost by a field goal. But then before that January of twenty one and January of twenty two in the thirties, in the high thirties. The Dolphins got housed in both of those games at Buffalo and at the Titans. Remember this game. If you buy into that, and Lord knows we have in the past with Jared Goff, we have with Derek Carr, if you buy that with Tua once again, single digits tops expected at Kansas City for this game on Peacock and I mentioned and what I hear.
Like last night it's right now projected to be zero degrees.
I heard a zero degree.
Hear's a zero degree.
Yeah, yeah, I said, Kansas City minus two and a half. I heard it's higher.
It is higher. It is Kansas City three.
And a half through the three. For listen, I know the Dolphins they botched that last night. I know they got tons of injuries, but really the Chiefs by more than a field goal.
Yeah, I know. I'm kind I'm sitting here thinking the same thing, Gil, And we'll discuss this more obviously later, but sitting here thinking the same thing. I just don't know we could do anything until we see more of this injury news developed throughout the week. But I'm looking at that Dolphins side by the.
Way, if Mahomes showed up and they won by ten, would I be that chocked? No, especially in that weather. But I don't know that that team has done anything to earn three and a half.
Yeah, I agree, I agree in that one.
Those are the two Saturday games anyway, three on Sunday, one on Monday. We'll get to those numbers game wild Card week. Love it right here at Visa these Sports Betty Network. One of the something I the way that I said, one of the lines in that promo reminds me of what do you know that Doctor pepper college football ad campaign.
Which which one of seventeen Yeah, what.
Is it called?
Somethonville? What is that? Oh? Yeah, I don't know what doctor Pepperville, Fansville, thank you.
Matt Fansville, thank you, thank you, Sean uh when that's one of those ad campaigns. By the way that if they had pitched it to me, i'd've been like, this is the dumbest thing I've ever heard, And now I kind of like it.
So Okay, I'm glad you brought this up, because I think they're all dumb except for the what is it? What is it? Caleb Williams like walking under the ladders and s black Cat.
But there's one that they do now where it's like the boyfriend talking to the dad and then she throws a football and it hits him in the face and he delivers one of the lines. He's like, oh, I love the wildcatter. He says something like that, where I just every time he does it, just like, oh I love that formation or something like that, I've oh, it's great, fantastic. It's just like, no way, would you know when a guy his twenties delivered the line that way? We get tweets of meeting the book Kevin Ryan gil I two had the Cardinals win total under four and a half and decided to take them yesterday plus three to wash my bet. Not to be conspiracy theory guy, but I am sure Prader was told to miss those field goals as making them would have cost them. Harrison in the draft, Will Hill had the same situation, and boy did they thread that needle. Cardinals lose by one. Prader misses not one, but two field goals at the end. When does that happen?
Oh? It was crazy.
Sit here with Jared Smith, Kelly, he's going nuts yesterday. I mean like it's totally one. You just didn't see coming too, you know what I meaning, not until the final like minute.
Or you're like, wait a second, this could really happen, like wow.
Seahawks win, entered that game with the chance to make the postseason, didn't matter that they won Primetime Cowboys underscore, Cubs won. I'm sorry tribute Kelly Bidley. Unless somebody can attest to being in the same room with both Bill Lady and Larry bud Melman, I ain't buying that they aren't the same person. Bill's a little slimmer than Larry bud Melman, let me just say that. And this from Los Vegas five to one four oh, this is a big story of course. This morning YO recommendations for new coach for the Commodes, Commodores or Commandeers from the diehard fan Gil Alexander.
Well, okay, in case you missed it, this morning.
Ron Rivera was let go by the Washington Commandeers. Thank you, laud Probably something that how was years after when it should have happened. But this is part of the purge, Dan Snyder. After twenty four years of hell, Josh Harris was no secret that Ron Rivera would just play out the string here, so they're gone. And among those conducting the search Bob Myers, the former Warriors GM responsible for four Warriors title at least at the Helm during four Warriors titles, and Rick Spielman thirty years with the Vikings. They are going to conduct the search for an NFL coach and NFL head coach. And so to answer your question, those Vegas, I hate these Bill Belichick rumors hate. I do not want them to hire Bill Belichick. I do not want them to hire again great Mount Rushmore of coaches, I get it, but I don't want them hiring a guy who's in his seventies. Not that I'm not trying to be agist, but a guy who's not going to be there for a long time, let's just be honest, and a guy who really doesn't They haven't done anything in post Brady. So it's like, I don't know what the allure here is of this.
It's amazing how a new team gets linked to him every single day.
I don't want it to happen. The pie in the sky, but he'd have no interest in coming. Is Jim Harball. Jim Harball, by the way, for those who are like I don't know about Jim Harball has won everywhere, and I'm not just talking about Michigan and Stanford and the Niners, but also at USD before, before he was at Stanford. It's San Diego with the Toreros. The dude wins everywhere. Every every one of his coaching records is a crescendo to as good as you can get. So he is a proof winner. He will produce a winner wherever he is. I would think that the Chargers are probably the front runner there, maybe the Raiders. I think that Mark Davis probably wants to shoot his shot before he goes to Antonio Peers. But for the for the Commanders, I'd like, here's what I would like for them to do. I won't even pick a name.
I don't think Bellijack's going there to wear it.
Washington, Oh no, he's not going well, I hope les, I hope not.
I'm gonna say he's at the Chargers and Horrorba's with the Raiders.
Here's what I could be. But I'll say to Washington, is this go to a you had? Everybody shows this graphic over and over and over again. That embarrasses the organization. Where Matt Lafleur, Mike McDonald, Kyle Shanahan, and Sean McVay were all on your coaching staff in twenty thirteen. Mike Shanahan's coaching tree. So you know what you should do. You should go to your coaching tree of choice, whoever you think is your your north star of a coaching tree, and pluck some one from that. That's that should be the way you conduct the search. That's my answer to that.
I don't The only part I don't understand is like, would you be that upset with Rick Spielman, like, you know, running things more officially? Like I don't really get the Like the search committee sounds like a fine committee to help run your franchise. Like even Bob Byer's coming over for the NBA, Like that guy's smart enough with the financials and stuff that like he could have a part in your organization. Jolly, probably don't get catch everybody else up on Black Monday News. Let's see we have.
Arthur Smith, by the way, right after midnight let go by the Atlanta Falcons. After that awkward ending to the Saints Falcons game yesterday where the Saints punched it in because they wanted to get Jamal Williams a touchdown. Dennis Allen was not responsible for that play call. Jamis Winston and the players overruled him, and instead of it being forty one to seventeen, the final score was forty eight to seventeen. Arthur Smith going crazy on Dennis Allen, Dennis Allen trying to tell him it wasn't me. He didn't buy it. He sort of met after the game and the press conference. But yeah, I'm upset right after midnight last night Easter.
Sitting here doing live bed Sunday, didn't get to catch that chaos as we were trying to track all the other endings of the games. Oh James, I love you man.
That was the That was the You've been riding me on the bench this whole year. Screw you, Dennis out. We're doing whatever the hell we want to do out here.
Oh my gosh, this little Willy Beebon moment right there, apologetic completely afterward.
It's so Bushlea. And by the way, my my, the take that I that I just laugh at the most is everybody wants to be Matcha's like it's football. You do what you want to do, you want to go, You stop us Yeah, there used to be a time in this world where people had class. But you know, I guess that's not the cool thing anymore.
No, not at all. Okay, let's see Panthers GM also gone. And then uh report from Bleacher Report this morning on Mike Rabel, Uh has expressed interest in the idea of returning to the Patriots. Oh.
They just throw it out there.
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
I wouldn't mind coming back to the team I played.
For, which does super Bowls, which does somehow feel like inevitable at some point that he takes that job. It feels that I'm not saying it's this year or whatever, but it, man, it feels like he's there at some point.
Let's just talk about that for seconds, since you bring it up. Titans come out and they blast the Jags. I know it was dicey there for a second, but really, the Titans blasted them. Twenty eight to twenty most disappointing season of all Jaguars given out how it finished, or We're going to get to this in a bit. So the Jaguars rating three. They end up nine to eight out of the playoffs. Kelly and a bunch of folks here had the Jags. That was your favorite preseason bet right, Jaguars to win the AFC South. The Eagles ten and one, lose five out of their last six, No, because his pardon me, they weren't ten and one, No, no, they were. Then they lose five out of their last six and they end up eleven and six on the season. Now, I was trying to think of an equivalent for the Eagles, and we will get to them, but we're just trying to think of an equivalent to the Eagles the way that they have stumbled into the postseason. And the first thing that will He'll give him credit because the first thing he threw out was the nineteen eighty six Jets, who famously, for those of us who are around them, this was a year where the Giants were the best team and they won the Super Bowl. Washington was probably the second best team, but Giants beat them parcels in the in the AFC Championship seventeen and excuse me, in the NFC Championship seventeen to nothing. They had swept Washington that year, but in the AFC the Jets were ten to one. It was a Ken O'Brien year. Then they lost their last five games sixteen game schedule. They lost their last five games, and they still got in the playoffs as a wildcard as a ten and six. By that time, Ken O'Brien had been benched. Pat Ryan was the quarterback. They ended up winning the wild card game and then losing in the divisional round in Cleveland in a game that got to a second overtime. But the point is is that they were like these Eagles at one point in the season, roughly around the same exact time, exactly the same around time. It was like, oh, this team is so good, this team is amazing. They find ways to win. That was the thing with the Eagles. I don't know, man, that of all these lines to guess that that ended up being the toughest one between the Eagles and the Bucks on Monday Night. In the end, though, it becomes this very strange, very strangely interesting game.
Nonetheless, I agree, because you have.
This Eagles team that was once thought of as good that sucks now just tar the Giants destroyed them yesterday. Yeah, twenty seven to ten. Hurt hurt his finger, AJ Brown hurt his knee. We got to check on that. I mean, I don't think they're I don't think they have a chance. If aj Brown's on in there, I think that's how important he is.
I don't know, I will get to it. I don't know why I jumped ahead because you were talking about the Jags.
But yeah, just like those Jets figured out a way to win that first game in the playoffs in nineteen eighty six, I wouldn't be surprised at the Eagles.
Figure, it's the Bucks, for God's sakes, We'll.
Get to that. We got a whole bunch more to get to four more games entirely, we'll do that. And then Chris Filika on the championship game tonight between Michigan and you dub where does he stand? What impact will it have at the top of the draft. It's a numbers game at Vison, these Sports, Betty Network, Gil Alexander Kelly, bid Little live from Marcanada here at the d the barrage. Felika is mad at me, and he's correct to be mad at me. He was the one who was the one who came up with the eighty six Jets as a as a first salvo on what's the equivalent to this year's Eagles, he said, and he's correct. He says, I was the one sitting at the Meadowlands watching Kevin McArthur return a pickoff of Bill.
Kenny for a touchdown.
You're right, you deserve the creditor sitting through that we get tweets of beating the book trip Tepper informing me that the Washington Taco holders all already two targets per Tom Pellisero. They've requested interviews with Lions, OC and DC, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn. Ben Johnson's gonna get a lot of run from a lot of teams. Jordan Pagel love the week eighteen season ending season long bet sweats the Packers Bears game netted me the Bears under seven and a half, Packers all to over eight and a half, and Packers to make the playoffs. And then the miracle nice and nice job, Jordan. And then the miracle of all miracle cash is Eagles somehow going under eleven and a half, which is amazing. J and j watering hole informing us the Eagles the first team in NFL history to start ten and one and not get to twelve wins. He says, I hear you on them finding a way, but there's no way to honestly bet hard earn money on them this week, J and J. I cannot disagree with that, cannot disagree with that. And this is from Greg Jones, one of the four survivors in the twenty twenty three Circus Survivor netting over two point three million dollars golf clap from Kelly stand standing ovation to all four of y'all. He says, so many things to go around Derek Stevens, Jeff Benson, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, Will and all the great people Circa Fasick, Captain Jack Unabated, Joe Peita deep Dive pod. He cites me as well. Listen, I did nothing for you. It was all you. Good for you. And congratulations again to all contest winners. What a moment in their lives. Just what a moment, Yeah, what a moment. It's like when I asked Greg, I was like, you know, is this is this more stressful than the contest itself? The monetization of it? Down the stretch before I could even finish, He's like, you have no idea.
You're right, I don't have no idea for me.
It's all hypothetical, it's all imaginary. Let's do let's get into these games. Saturday morning, Sunday morning, Sunday, pardon.
Me, ten Pacific time, one o'clock Eastern Steelers at the Bills. Steelers at the Bills, which became because of last night's rest of the Bills beating the Dolphins, and they're come from behind win.
This becomes the seven to two game. The Steelers get into the play Not only do they get Mike Tomlin a seventeen straight win of non losing seasons. By the way, I don't know if you heard about that, Pitts, Pittsburgh gets in the playoffs. Unbelievable. At ten and seven, they're at Buffalo.
Now.
Talking about weather, I looked at the weather forecast. I saw thirty mile per hour wins. I have heard people throw around fifty mile per hour. Yods, I'd sustained too, not gusts. So let's just say I'm right and they're not. It's still thirty. Oh my god. The way I heard it was the what it's gonna be fifty before the game around the chunk that you're talking about during the game and calms down after the game.
So depending on how the weather moves this week, it could be. It could be thirty five, could be worse than thirty five, could be way better than thirty five.
Remember that game in Buffalo with the Cross wins. Yes, was that during the pandemic. It was against New England because that year, remember that was the game, that was the day that afterwards, Lombardi violently disagreed with me his words, not mine, violently disagreed with me about how the wind was circulating in that stadium.
Yeah, I don't remember what year that was.
Yeah, either around then that could be this Buffalo's We talked about beating the Dolphins last night. There was a situation where if they had lost, they would have.
Been out of there.
But as it turned out, they had clinched before this game had even started. It was just a matter of seating and they get the title for the division. Alan thirty of thirty eight for three point fifty nine, two touchdowns but two picks and a fumble lost. He was fifteen for sixty seven on the ground. Khalil Shakier was his big target yesterday, six for one oh five and they outgained Miami four seventy three to two seventy five. Pittsburgh, they get there winning in the rain in Baltimore on Saturday. I had the Ravens plus the four that did not get home. Steelers ended up. It was a seven to seven game. First play of the fourth quarter, Rudolph de Deionte for seventy one. That's what broke it open. And when I say it was only a one score game, that felt like a breaking of the game, a breaking open of the game because of the weather conditions. Fourteen to seven Pittsburgh first play of the fourth quarter, Baltimore punt Pittsburgh three and now Baltimore second and three at their own twenty seven. That's when Gus was hit by Keanu Benton. He fumbled, Marcus Golden recovered with seven to fourteen left. That led to a Boswell twenty five yard field goal, and at that point, seventeen to seven was insurmountable. Tucker did get a field goal, but there's only sixteen seconds left in the game and the onside kick failed. Ball game Steelers won. They needed either a Bills loss didn't happen, or before that, a Jaguars loss to get into the postseason. They got that one. Steelers in I guessed ten here in favor of the Bills.
Yeah, so this one has been moving. We are currently it was just gonna Both spread and total have moved, Yes, both spread and total. This opened right around ten. It was I was just checking. I think it's pretty much ten everywhere it is. It came down a bit to nine and a half on spread spread wise came down to nine and a half. It's basically painted ten now everywhere. And then this total. Yes, as people have been picking up on the weather stuff that could impact this game. As total opened at forty and a half, we're down to thirty seven thirty seven and a half right now and could come down lower if the weather indicates it, and could go low. And then if we get closer to game time and we find out the weather's not going to be as bad in terms of the wind, it could skyrocket up at that. I mean, definitely tells you. Definitely tells you by the movement we've seen here that there is a lot of early interest in the Buffalo side. Though right for that to still remain at ten and that total come down, you would expect that spread to come down a little bit. I think they're trying to I don't think I think the books want to avoid teaser range big time on this one.
Yeah, though I will say this again. Through three games here, right, we had, you know, Miami it excuse me, pardon me. The Cleveland Houston game. Cleveland favored by less than a field goal, Kansas City favored by more than a field goal, hosting Miami. I think that's a little high, but like, I'm not going crazy about it, but I do think it's a little high. And then here Buffalo by ten, Like there isn't anything that seems all that betible to me, just like racing to bet sort of thing. And in this one here, I guess I just want to ask a question about the Bills with the Josh Allen because I have so the exact as I have are Niners to beat the Ravens, Niners to beat the Bills, Niners to beat the Chiefs. I have them all in double digits, Bills being the highest of that bunch or longest. I also have the Ravens to beat the Niners to cover me up on the other side. I like the way it's set up for my exactness. But let me just ask you about the Bills. Would you be surprised by anything from them? So I know we've talked about them along with the Browns. Some people down the stretch of the season were like, you know, the question, who's the one team you think can beat the Ravens, right, who's the team you don't want to play in the playoffs. A lot of people say Browns, a lot of people say Bills. Now, I'm not saying in this game against the Steelers, because I think they're just a better football team than the Steelers. But if they put up a clunker and got beat would you be all that surprised? If Josh Allen just had a three turnover game, you had one last night, for God's sakes, right, and just had a clunker of a game and got bounced out, I wouldn't be that surprised either.
No me either, unfortunately. That is Look, I think they're probably second highest ceiling in the AFC, behind the Ravens. I think when you just talk pure these teams running pure, Baltimore is absolutely number one. I think Buffalo would be number two. But when you talk Lowis floors, Buffalo is probably right with almost every one of these other teams.
Who and I'll even include the Ravens in this because they've had the sketchy playoff history, give me your trust. Rankings of these teams in the AFC, oh Ravens are one even with that history.
To me, After that, you struggle for a two.
Well, the problem is that I think a lot of people would look Chiefs or Dolphins right, But that's a coin flippy game.
To me.
These teams are so like the Chiefs could lay an egg, nobody would be surprised. They've laid tons of them this year down the side.
Okay, so number two for me would be Buffalo, but I think that answer is right away. Then how wide open I think this AFC is. And if you go to Cleveland, it all include Baltimore. Yes, Baltimore is one to me, but I'm not. I wouldn't be shocked if they lose.
That's why I include them, because you because given the history, you have to include them. But I think the people who's instinct right now are yelling Browns. Also, you and I sort of have the same feeling about the Browns, which is things are happening besides the table here. I think this thing with the with the Browns is I still think Flacco has a just a horrible game in him. Yeah, me too, And we haven't seen it yet. I think it's coming at some point.
YEP.
Now, by the way, it should be mentioned that I think if we go back to twenty twelve. I probably thought that through the twenty twelve postseason until we got to the Super Bowl, and then I was on the Ravens great boy.
Yeah, yeah, you're going to be fair about it. I've said this a lot about Joe Flacco probably in his career, and again I'll say it again. If they win the Super Bowl, He's in the Hall of Fame.
Right to the Hall. Yeah, but that's an interesting question, like who do you trust in the AFC. We could say the same in the NFC past the Niners, which we will. We'll get into the other games. It's a numbers game at visent the sports betting network.
The numbers told the story they always down.
It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander our number two of a numbers game at Visa and the sports betting network, Visa dot Com, Visa app game plus iHeartRadio YouTube TV. It all comes from the Barrage Bar Canada here at the d downtown Las Vegas. Kelly Bidlin alongside for the wild Card weekend, which to me is just six NFL playoff games, one of the great weekends of the entire sports and sports betting calendar. I am, by the way, as much as we love football and football, I mean, it's our livelihood. It is so much fun. And in July and in February we crave football. You know, there are a couple down months of the calendar year where we wish football was upon us. But I gotta tell you, like, I'm ready for all the regular season teams that did make the posing to disappear, Like I don't need to see the Falcons and the common Deers and all these teams anymore, goodbye, or even like being like just tempted to make a bet on a Carolina Panthers side or something like that. Ye, get out, let's yeah, let's do this. By the way, how do you I know I've said the peacock thing a few times here. How do you feel about the fact that, besides the Miami and Kansas City metropolitan areas, that people must purchase peacock to watch an NFL playoff game.
I feel for all the local uh newspapers and news stations out there, they're gonna get a lot of calls that night and be like, where's the football? Is such a great point, but such a great point.
But having said that, Gil, I don't know, man, it's twenty twenty four. Like we we've moved. This has been coming for a few years now, Like.
We get on board.
If you're gonna watch sports, this is the future of watching sport, not the future is the president of watching It's also one of the things that we've known for a while, but we knew that once this week came that people will be.
Like, what do you mean, I gotta buy peacock? So yeah, I don't know. Maybe it's maybe it's a bit of like just for me betting golf. It's always it's already been such a thing the past two years where you're like, all right, this week, where am I streaming golf? Atly? Right?
But the NFL is part of the culture, man, Yeah, the NFL is the one thing where like the average American believes it's their birthright to be able to watch this and so to put it on streaming, which is nothing but an additional money grab, right, But what a peacock paid one hundred and ten Well, I mean the hundred and ten million for this.
I guess it's a little confusing about that. I mean that's Peacock, that's NBC owned, right, So NBC is clearly pushing its own streaming service. I don't want to say above its own network channel, but it's basically telling they're telling you, hey, this is this is where you need to go, because this is where stuff's gonna be from now on.
All right, So two games on Saturday, the second of which the Chiefs and the Dolphins is only streaming besides in Miami Kansas City. And we have three on Sunday and one on Monday. Second game on Sunday. What do we have?
This is four thirty eastern one thirty Pacific time packers at Cowboy.
All right, Cowboys did what they needed to do against the the commodes, the commodore's, whatever you want to call them. I think that name's going away. By the way, Cowboys went at thirty eight to ten. By the way, we're throwing out some some notes on the Washington this morning. This is from I want to get the source correct here. This is from the junkies. Oh is sports junkies down in DC. This is a Washington's offense was Scott Turner last year as their OC twentieth in yards per game, twenty fourth in points per game. This year under Eric b Enemy twenty fourth in yards per game, twenty fifth in points per game. Goodness ouch. So Cowboys get the number two seed. They win the NFC East. Philadelphia obviously was in a position where if they had one and the Cowboys had lost, they would have gotten it. That obviously didn't come close to happening. So Cowboys get the number two seed. They host the Packers here. The Packers beat the Bears yesterday. They were in a win and they're in situation, and they get that win. There was a scenario where if the Packers lost somehow they could have gotten in, but thankfully for them, it didn't have to come to that. They did take care of business. Jordan Love twenty seven of thirty two in the Packers seventeen to nine win over the Bears, Twenty seven of thirty two for three hundred and sixteen yards, two touchdowns, no picks.
Now I ended.
I said this before the season started many times, and at first early in the season didn't look like it was gonna come to fruition, but boy has it, which is if you hold a clipboard under the same system for many years, multiple years in his case two, if you hold it for multiple years under the same system, and in his case under the same Hall of Fame quarterback. He got to see some you usually not Sometimes you usually end up being pretty good. And I cited any number of quarterbacks that played in the Washington organization from Rippin' Too Humphreyes to Trent Green, on and on and on. In the old days of football, the eighties, the ancient times of the eighties and nineties, you got to hold a clipboard for years and then you ended up good if you were under the same system. It's a very continuity based game football. But we're in this time period where teams can't afford because of economic structure to have that happen, and so we're not used to singing. Jordan Love was in this very strange situation where he did get to do that, and I said it multiple times, you usually end up pretty good. He didn't end up pretty good, Kelly. This comes to us from Cleve Ta, who we've cited already on this show. Jordan Love ends up finishing fifth in EPA per dropback in the entire National Football League. So in expected points added, Jordan Love fifth in the entire National Football League. They go into Dallas, I said, Dallas minus ten. Now Dallas got everything they wanted because they had those home road splits. Remember where they ended up undefeated at home? I know, Detroit Lions. It still happened, undefeated at home, and they ended up with a losing record on the road eight no at home, four and five on the road. So they get what they want. I said ten here.
I'm gonna assume it's right around there. No, this is uh, this is Cowboys seven and a half.
Wow.
And I think there were some sevens out there even I know that. I know I saw at least one or two sevens when it first opened. Pretty quickly went seven and a half. Though it is seven and a half painted everywhere. I think too. I mean, look, Jordan Love has been I say wow, because I thought this would have come up. Yeah, Like, Jordan Love's been awesome. I think your guess is going type to that in rogue. Uh. I think your guest, though, is closer to the way I feel about what this game should be truly lined. I think seven and a half still a little light.
I would love nothing more than for Jordan Love to come in here and just go to town. Do I believe that will happen? I do not, but I would love.
To see this is I mean, look, you broke it down like, yes, he's had a great year. I'm not. I don't really know that, me or you. I'm gonna speak for you, but I don't really know that. We had either high or low expectations for him. This year was really a wait and see approach on what Jordan Love was gonna be. At least for me this.
Year, Oh, I was higher than the average person. The average person thought he was gonna stick.
Let's not forget that second half of the season was awesome and there's some big, big time wins in there. I mean Kansas City, Detroit, right, I mean these last I'm not gonna go crazy. I think like a lot of people are over these last five weeks. I mean it's Chicago, Minnesota, Carolina, Tampa Bay in New York. You go into Dallas and win this type of game. Yeah, I think that that brings this story to the next level. It makes it a little bit more real for me with Jordan love, but I gotta see that first. I'm definitely leaning towards.
The Dallas side. Great job from him, great job for Matt lafloor nine and eight. They end up they get into the I guess the twelve and five Cowboys, But I'm with you, I'd love to see it. I don't see it happening in my mind. The flip side of that Packers Bears game, though, goes to the top of the NFL draft, which is justin Fields and what probably is his final probably maybe I shouldn't use that word, but many think is probably his last game with the Chicago Bears. He seemed to think so afterwards, said some words that sort of indicated that no one game is a reflection of an entire career in one uniform. But yesterday's game was kind of appropriate. He was just kind of ho hum in that game. And I'll stand by what I said, you know, in the last couple of weeks, which is it's this fascinating thing where if you're one of these other bad teams in the NFL, like a Washington and you say to yourself, hey, if we had had justin Fields, would we have won more games? And the answer is probably, yes, you would have. But the economic structure of the NFL is such that the Bears are better off drafting a rookie quarterback and Washington is better off off drafting Ae a rookie quarterback. At number two, one and two. The Bears via the Panthers and that Bryce Young trade, have the first pick, the Commandeers have the second, the Pats have the third. They're looking for a quarterback. Cardinals at four are gonna stick with Kyler Murray. He's already signed his big deal, one would assume, so you could see quarterback, quarterback, quarterback going one, two three. I don't think a team's gonna give up a haul for Justin Fields. I could be wrong, but I just don't know that there is a team that will. I know the Bears are hoping there's a team out there. Yeah, but right now, this tonight's game is going to be very interesting, right because Michael Pennix gets his final shot at impressing a country. You know of GMS and specifically of the Chicago Brass and Washington Brass and all three teams in New England at the top, and JJ McCarthy also will have something to say tonight as well. Although he's not considered as high as h Pennix or Caleb Williams or Jaden Daniels. But that mean, and you know how teams get on a down year with quarterbacks during a draft, how quarterback crazy they get, and justifiably so, you're nothing without a quarterback in this league. But you can only win a super Bowl once again for the hundred thousand time on this show with a quarterback over performing on a rookie contract where you can pay everybody else, or if you're a Hall of Famer and Justin Field, ain't that I mean?
And you said it perfectly. It all just comes down to the economics of the NFL. I don't think that there's you know, like you and I have talked about it a bunch with Justin Fields and what the Bears should do next year. It's the finances put him in the situation of you got to go and draft someone to let him go. I think so at least, And then the only problem is, I don't think you're gonna get a haul for Justin Fields, just because any team that you're negotiating with knows that you're negotiating from a point of yeah, a disadvantages a disadvantage point right where you're trying to get rid of justin fields, so you're not going to get the best offers that you could possibly get. But they're still they're still going to make out well for themselves.
For sure.
Some team, some team will I'll cover at him. Yeah, and I would be surprised.
Yeah, if it goes quarterback quarterback quarterback here, but who who goes first at this point, who goes second? Who goes third? Is anybody's best guest between Drake May and Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels Caleb Williams DC, kid, just want to point that out.
Those odds did move, by the way in the past twenty four to forty eight hours. Caleb Williams up to minus eight hundred. I think it was fun at five for most of the most of the past couple of months.
Are you convinced he's better than the other then? Than Drake May and Jayden Daniels. Killer Moss looked pretty darn good with USC and that bowl game, I'll tell you that much. We'll come back a couple more games to get to and the College Football Championship to night with Felika numbers gave Visa these Sports Betting Network.
A numbers game on the Sports Betting Network.
If you're looking for a betting edge through the NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl, the VSON experts have got you covered. Become a vcent Pro subscriber today. Get access to our daily best bets with the leader board to see which Vson expert has the hot hand, betting splits to show you wear the money and bets and moving for every game, plus betting systems premium analysis in twenty four to seven video access signed today, Get your first thirty days for only nine to ninety nine to see everything Visa has to up your betting game. Visit Visa dot com slash subscribe to sign up now. We get tweets at beating the book. Kelly had no idea the Peacock thing was gonna have people buzzing like this, But my god, we were overrun by this. Trevor Warwick. They put the KC game on Peacock to on purpose. It's their way to get all the swifties to sign up. Mike Rouse, if you're outside of Miami and KC, you must download the Peacock app. Then and only then can you watch the game. Yeah, we said that, Mike, Mike Stacks. For all the wrestling fans out there, you need Peacock to watch pay per view having NFL on, there's a nice bonus if you've signed up already. Brandon Webb Poohols's seven hundred home run was on Peacock exclusively. Couldn't even watch it at local stations around the Saint Louis area. It's travesty. Michael Burns, zero chance I watch the Peacock game. I barely watch games all year. I bet, but hardly watch. I bet, but hardly watch work related. I'll be sleeping, Jeffrey, are seventy bucks or six months and I get everything on TV. Downside is no DVR pause or rewind. I'd be happy to share the hookup for the name of the specific sushi joint and Ryan Hyatt. Best thing about the video promo for Bill eighties in the morning newsletter the epic Lefty Rosenthal, Sam Rothstein glasses Bill wars while writing, well played boys, assuming they were bored from Gil No, those are his.
He wears them all the time. On and on with the Peacock stuff. Kelly, Yeah, yeah, I like this one from socle fantasy with the playoffs, right, that's that's one too game being on a streaming service. Can you guys talk about how this affects the live betting h mark it with the delay. I think the books are watching on a delay too, but it could be wrong.
I can only speak for we're in Nevada when I had Cox cable.
We've talked about this before. Pearls and I used to talk about this all the time.
Cox cable here in Nevada is worse than the streaming in terms of a delay. So it's it's no like it was a Jeff's example was his dad was five miles away from a stadium in New York and or he know, Jeff was five miles away from the stadium here in Vegas and his dad in New York was seeing it before he was.
That's great. Yeah, I mean I would say with it depends where you live. How about that. I think that here in Nevada we probably encounter what he's talking about more than the rest of the country. Where's just there is there are books here that are setting their own live numbers during commercial breaks and stuff. So yes, that might more align with what where the streaming's at. Otherwise, these guys are otherwise. All these books are just going off of what the actual game feed is, right, which is not what you're seeing, you know, play by play, live play by play at ESPN and stuff like that. That's what the actual game time is, not what you're seeing directly on the streaming service. What is nice about a lot of the lot of the sports books these days, and we even have a couple, I mean, Caesars being one of them. A lot of a lot of times they're putting score in time now, even in the app. I think that's a great addition. Gives you an idea. You can kind of compare it to the tea where you at in the game. But the answer safely is always just wait till the commercials. Yeah, just just don't even don't even try to buck Is that something you even try the anymore? Even think of these days? I don't.
I'll wait till a commercial in a tennis match. I will wait till a commercial in football games. I mean it's I mean, for for NBA, you have to like there's there's you you can't even think about it. In NFL, that's not true though, I mean NFL maybe the beginning of a draw or the end of a drive, in the end of a half, I do it. I do it in game, in game in NFL, I take that back, or in college. And that's that's what I was That's what I was mainly asking about, because I've gotten to the point where I don't even try.
I just wait for a.
Commercial football I try.
Football is the one exception I think for me.
Uh, there's then there's a couple more Jason h eleven first Sunday Ticket, that Amazon Prime, now Peacock, all that and have Brad Allen Cruise screw up. My bet, not gonna do it. I'll be watching I'll be watching Prime Time Golf from Hawaii Saturday night and x Prime.
One more.
I look at the Peacock NFL game like this. You can pay for a month of service. You can watch the game on Saturday Night in the WWE Royal Rumble later on in the month. So everybody's got a thought on it.
I mean, every one of these streaming services has something else for you. Like that's all the wrestling people bringing up Peacock. Yeah, they have it already. Sunday night.
What do we got.
Sunday Night Rams at Lions.
Rams end up with a sixth seed because Carson Wentz leads the come from behind win against the Niners yesterday. Give it up for Carson Wentz everybody anyway, No, nobody don't. Uh twenty two twenty one they get it excuse me, twenty one to twenty Pardon me, they get it done against the Niners yesterday, come from behind. Puka gets his records. He needed four catches in thirty yards. He had a touchdown early, by the way, he was two catches in two yards short for an uncomfortable period of time yesterday before he got it up.
Anybody post props? By the way, did anybody get up? I was looking. I was looking before games a couple different spots.
I didn't see any buddy post that sets the rookie records for both receptions and receiving yards. And as someone holding Pookaaku offensive Rookie of the Year tickets, let me just say c J. Stroud should be the rookie.
Yey yeah.
Even with all that, And here's just another way to just sort of put c J. Stroud into context. This from Doug Clawson.
C J.
Stroud the third quarterback in the last fifty seasons. To lead the NFL in pass yards per game and touchdown to pick ratio along with you Ready for these two names Joe Montana in nineteen eighty nine and Tom Brady in two thousand and seven. I'll have to look up those two.
Yeah, it's not horrible.
So yeah, c J. Stroud, they listened, they made the playoffs. He should be the Rookie of the Year. I think Demico should be the Coach of the Year.
That's just me.
But to me, the only two awards that are that are debatable in my head. And I get it, Demiko, reasonable minds can disagree, But Defensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year to me, are still anybody's guess. Yeah, I think Damar is comeback player of the Year. I don't think there's a doubt there either.
Now, oh, we gotta laugh, because, like, do you have a bet in defensive rookie or defensive player? They do not. Yeah, I don't either, So I don't really care. I don't know about you about like, like, defensive player of the year. Give it one of the stud pass rushers who's gonna continue to be a stud pass rusher for the next several years and the defensive rookie the year. I mean, we did so much on that last week, Like I don't know, roll of dice this.
We have screens behind Kelly's head and this red you know, the red bar at the bottom comes up breaking news and I'm like, oh, another coach got fired. So as you're talking, I'm looking past you. The Islanders have signed William Nylander to an eight year deal. Apparently that's whose eight year deals, Huge news, ninety two milligame. So it's the Rams at the Allions. Rams end up with a six seed, Lions end up with a three. And I don't know, Listen, the Lions could have gotten to number two yesterday. I get it, had the Cowboys and Eagles both lost and the Lions beat the Vikings. Vikings, by the way, I had an outside shot to get in. That didn't happen yesterday as the Allions went at thirty to twenty. But I mean, you know, Dan Campbell's got this one gear where he's like, we're at the seven yard line, we still must go for the two point conversion. I'm awesome, and I'm tough guy, and I'm the opposite of Brandon Staley. I want everybody to know I'm the opposite of Brandon Staley. Yeah, but then you'd like you play. You're playing players yesterday in a game that remotely could get you to the second seed, let's face it, and the Cowboys blasted the Commanders as they were supposed to. The Lions do beat the Vikings thirty to twenty, but along the way, Kelly sam Laporter wrenches his leg in the second quarter when his foot gets stuck in the turf. He's carded off. He has a hyper extended knees out indefinitely brutal. And then in the second half, Khalif Raymond gets hurt. He exits with a knee injury. So, I mean, in the wash, was that really worth it? I say that knowing the answer I was.
I mean no, but really easy for us to say now.
Well, but no, I mean it's not armchair quarterback and gets You can only get to the number two seed and the and the Cowboys are double digit favorites.
So what are you doing now?
I know, it's it's different for it's different for you know, the Steelers TJ. Watt got hurt in the game they had to win. And by the way, TJ. Watt probably out of this game against in the playoffs against the Buffalo Bills. But this is just this is kind of malpracticing. I'm sorry it is. I know people don't. People love to murder a nerd like Brandon Steely, but they don't like to do it to a tough guy like Dan Gambell. Just like you gotta score that touchdown in the Saints game and you can't stop us. It's football, too bad, all right, Way to go, Dan, CAMPLLL.
I'm more okay with it than you are. I'm gonna assume that there was some plan that if they got up big in this game and we're gonna pull guys or something like that. And I just think, I think, if you're the Lions, you gotta sit back and look realistically. Do you think you're gonna be able to go on the road to Dallas or Philadelphia if Philadelphia had won yesterday and maybe looked a whole lot better, Are they gonna go on the road and pick up at w I think I don't know. I think the Lions just more being realistic with who they are, and they know that. I think in their minds, they needed to play a home game in this second round.
Have you want to give excuses to Dan Campbell? Yes, yeah, I said four and a half here Lions four and a half.
This is three and a half Lions.
So the notion that the Rams come down to three, it was just taken back to three and a half.
Yeah, there was a So this is the goff Stafford. You know, trade playoff.
Rematch or not rematching a playoff, but the the playoff referendum of that trade, if you will, after Stafford has won a super Bowl. Not really a referendum, but you get the idea.
And it's some interesting movement on these games.
Can you see the Rams coming in and just beating them out right? Stafford?
Sure so could I.
And if the Lion this is this is tough. This is where it should be too. I think the line is where it should be. If the Lions won by double digits, would you be all that surprise?
No, no, no, not at all, not at all. I don't know that this is a game.
I'd be a little more surprised by that.
I don't know that this is a game I have I'm gonna have much interest in getting fold totals at fifty one and a half. I would be looking at in a lot of points being scored. I think that number is pretty fair too. This movement is interesting though, because this was it opened, you know, opened three. Most places went to three and a half. I mean looking at a four at circa back to three and a half is kind of where it's paying.
Notion of the Rams being underrated is not at at play, right? Yeah? All right? One more game to get to in the National Championship with Chris Flika. It's a numbers game at Visa these sports betting network. We get tweets at beating the book. This is from Golden Bear. Maybe that Golden Bear, Colden Bear. Nice job on all those majors. Hey, Gil, been a while, I haven't seen the show much since you moved to the d Is it cold down there? You always look bundled up. I just wanted to ask, loll love your show. Tennis is back soon, Oh, tennis is back already.
Trust again.
Visa dot Com slash picks for all the tennis picks. They're in Australia here on the run up to the Australian Open, the draw for which is later this week. Drew Dinsk and I doing a Australian open Pod on Friday at beating the book. But I've been betting Hobart and Auckland. And when don't we go to as Spain.
Oh, we're at Adelaide today. We're at Adelaide, Adelaide, Adelaide. I could say that all day.
So, yeah, that's going on right now. This is from Chili Gambler. I don't get all these like what if the Bears traded down to two, he says, took whichever quarterback, then traded fields. How much do you think they could get? Could they get a first next year for dropping to two? I don't think washing. Like, if I'm Washington, you don't really it's not that enticing to go to one, because you have to recognize what an inexact science. If you're Washington, you have to recognize what an inexact science picking quarterback is. And even if you're dead set on one of these guys, I still wouldn't trade up to one and give a haul. I'd just be like, yeah, you take whoever you want. I'm good.
Ask the Carolina Panthers about that, right, I mean, it's just just there's the notion that you would The Bears are not operating from a point of power to me. Yeah, that is the way of putting it. Yes, I mean it's it's the same thing we talked about last segment with trade, you know, just with trade and justin fields in general. It's not not to say it's not gonna happen, but it's just.
Like Washington or any of those, any of those teams below the Bear, they know what you're trying to do. Like it's not I guess what I'm saying is you're not getting a package where like Washington's giving you their number two on one next year.
Won the fault.
It's not happening. John Baldoosey said, you said Wookie contract. I did say Wookie.
I'm glad so Tony Farmer.
Tony Farmer agreed on Dan Campbell deserving criticism for not resting key players. But he's just the one who got caught speeding. Shanahan had Nick Mosa playing in the second half and San Francisco had even less to play for imagine if Bosa went down. It's a good quality point. Mick Jackson is upset because as I was looking past your head, I took it as a Nylander and got signed by the Islander. Somehow got islanders. He says, the maple leafs come on together, and is it landerlander? I don't know. Jonathan call he's he's he's defending Dan Campbell too, he' because he still got to dress fifty three players. You can't make them all inactive. Laporter injury unfortunate. Raymond was getting more snaps because uh Jamo was inactive. If the injury happened in the second half, all up double digits, I would agree one hundred. Sorry, I can't get with it, Blue hen Bill, signing up for Peacock is easy. Let's see, let's hoell he let's see how easy it is to cancel? Probably, oh god, probably as easy as getting guilt to give us the sushi places.
That's such a great point. Have you ever tried to cancel any of these subscriptures? Sers?
This is such a great point by Blue hen Bill. I if you ask me right now how many different.
Ones you signed up? And I talked about this, man.
I don't have an answer for you, I know, and if I wanted to cancel, I don't know what the process is either.
My answer, witty, how many am I signed up for? All of them?
That I think you can think of, I am I'm signed up for on top of my cable bill.
It's ridiculous.
What's that company that came up with that great idea to put them all mortgage?
And I've literally talked about that commercial so many times. It's so true the manage your subscriptions would But it's wild because I have thought about that canceling the subscription thing before. Have you ever tried to cancel on like direct direct TV is The was the craziest one in my life of trying to cancel cancel because I was moving somewhere where I couldn't have a satellite dish. Oh.
They're like, well, what if we give you see your sign up for NBA League passed? What if we gave you that for next year for free? What if we gave the NFL Sunday ticket for free? What if we give you a movie package? Ram I'm like, wait a second.
Shouldn't I just just should I just be canceling the bill every year then, because you're gonna offer me like three hundred dollars worth of stuff like this is incredible? They were notorious for that. It was wild, all right. Eagles at the Buccaneers.
Okay, when this became apparent that this was the matchup, this became the sort of one that induced the smile because you're like, wow.
What do you do with this? Eagles get crushed.
By the Giants. Jalen Hurts hurts his finger. AJ Brown hurts his knee. Hurts completed seven forward passes before he was relieved for Marcus Mariota, who completed seven forward passes of his own for fifty five yards. Eagles were once ten and one, they lost five of their last six, and then there's Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay had to beat Carolina to win the NFC South. If they lost, they were donzo. Oh.
They beat them all right, nine to nothing in what can only be.
Described by the way I should spend third Should I spend thirty seconds just going through this game? No? I shouldn't, because all it is is punch bunt, punch, punt, punt.
I barely saw it.
Punch pund punch fund three and out, pun fund fund fund. There was a moment in this game, by the way, when it was scoreless and Carolina had a third and fourth of Tampa Bay forty three, and Bryce went to DJ Shark for forty two, and then he jumped and stretched into the end zone and Antoine Winfield hit him and he fumbled the ball. Yep, the obvious rule of then the other team gets the ball. But Golalughland three field goals and then by the way, Tampa Bay. This is this is how lovely this game was. Tampa Bay ran out the clock starting with how much time did they have left?
Anyway, they had that ball, we never gave it back.
It's just ridiculous. Yes, this game was over. With other games that had so much time left.
On the clocks. It was brutal.
So Tampa Bay gets in the postseason. They get in at nine and eight. They're hosting a playoff game. New Orleans and Atlanta had a chance to get in the postseason had Tampa Bay lost. New Orleans actually had another way to get in, even in the late window, but they didn't get in. I said, Philly minus two and a half. That was my guess here, Philly minus three was my guest.
Pardon me, okay, interesting, this was I believe open two and a half everywhere at the action on this game this morning. This is if you are interested in Philly two and a half, I would get there now. It is I'm looking at basically all two and a half juiced. Now I am interested in that and it I mean we're up to minus one twenty minus one, twenty five, We're gone to three at DraftKings, already three on this game. JJ Wateringhole's point is well taken on Twitter earlier, which is, how can you put your money behind the Eagles at this point? You're right about that, man, It ain't fun and is there any reason to expect them to perform in any way different? But my god, just like those eighty six Jets which we brought up earlier, who were ten and one and finished the season ten and six, they figured out a way to win that wild card game that year too, before succumbing in the division round. I've got to believe the Eagles can beat this team, like I just have to believe that, right, I'm with you. I don't sitting here today, I'm I'm not ready to bet this game, but that if that means I'm if does that mean I'm gonna miss two and a half so not have a chance at that again and probably not betting this. Yeah, that's probably what's gonna happen.
If you ask me the question and I will ask it of myself, and I will ask it of you right now. Which is the of all these spreads? Is there one that you love the most? You have bet two things already, right I haven't.
I have made two bets. Yes, I did a I did a seven point teaser with the Bills and Cowboys laughybody's favorite teaser. But it was nine and a half, Yeah, I'm sure. And then but we're back to ten's basically everywhere in that Bill Steelers game. And then I bet the other one I thought was a little a little bit of an overreaction on the opener, Brown's Texans. The total opened at like forty five and a half. I think it was.
Man, it cuts bet immediately to the under. It bottomed out at forty three at Station's. I thought that was just a little I thought it was a little too low for this game. I bet the over on Cleveland Houston actually at forty three. You know, we've seen those home road splits with the Cleveland defense. I think there's something a little bit too that. I don't think CJ. Stroud's gonna get completely shut down by this Cleveland team.
I think he's still going to be able to move the ball a little bit. So yeah, I actually like there to be a little some points in that game.
I don't love this batch of games in terms of the number because I think most of them are dead on here. But if you if I could only pick two, I think it's the Eagles Monday Night laying three or below, and I think it's the Dolphins getting more than three at Kansas City, And both of those fall under the category of I just have to believe the Eagles, for as bad as they've been, are better than the Bucks. And I just have to believe that the Chiefs aren't justified in being more than a three point favorite against anyone in this playoff. Yeah, yep, And those are those are the very They might be flimsy reasons, but they're the defaults best that I can come up with of this group of six because the other ones.
I don't know.
They're pretty much where they ought to be a little bit of a lead on the Cowboys laying all that point laying all those points too, is there final?
Now? I'm with you for the most part on those final question. Oh sorry, ahead, No, we were talking during the break, right, Like I just going to the Rams Lions game. I don't think I'll be involved at all. I would rather lay three though with the Lions if it gets back there, then taking three and a half or more with Zilder Stamps.
Okay. And then the final question before we talk college ball with Felika, Baltimore and San Francisco, give me the give me the one team you could see going in and beating those teams on their home field in each conference?
Oh man? Okay, Uh Cowboys just because they're the best that's left in the NFC and the AFC has got to be Buffalo.
I think the AFC is Buffalo on a good day, though I don't really see it, and I don't see it in the NFL. I don't see it either, But yeah, you told me I got to answer. How about this total real quick in the in the Buffalo game? Down to thirty five and a half, somewhere between thirty to fifty miles per hour winds forecasts