Beating The Book: 2023-24 Divisional Weekend NFL Guessing Lines Show

Published Jan 15, 2024, 5:54 PM

Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon give their early thoughts on NFL Divisional Weekend on Monday's Beating The Book. They react to the Wildcard Weekend games that took place over the weekend. The Cowboys get embarrassed at home against the Packers. The Texans, Lions, and Chiefs advanced. What are their initial thoughts on Packers-49ers?

The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics.

This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander, Gone vs.

Good Monday Morning, Dude, is the numbers game in vs. In the sports betting network, Visa dot Com, the Visa app game plus iHeartRadio, YouTube, teav and of course the DraftKings Networkskill Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from bar Canada here at the day. And yes, we've been sitting in these chairs for at least two minutes, two and a half minutes. Happy Martin Luther King Junior birthday.

By the way.

The reason and apparently the way that downtown Las Vegas handles that is they create all kinds of detours and we barely got here in time for the show. Yeah.

I feel like I feel like I was being tested, like you know, like a mouse, like an amazed right times did you try to, like an idiot test of how many times I was like trying, Oh my god, I gotta go back over that way. Oh wait, road close, I gotta go back over that road close. Okay, I don't know what construction is going on.

Now exactly what happened to me, thanks for warning me about Uh. We are here though, and we are ready to talk football, everything that has gone by this past weekend, everything that's about to happen here today, kind of like the two two to two in the end.

Kind of like the two I don't know if you have the same thought, Like on Saturday, I didn't text you about this, but I was like, it really screws up show plans for the next two days, or does that?

But like from a football watching for us.

Yeah, oh that's great. Well, so let me start there before we get into today's games, and then we'll get then we'll look back at everything over the weekend, and lord knows, there's plenty to talk about. But the that was my first thing. So Friday, you know, we do we obviously do five shows a week, and typically I will get to every point that I want to make during the course of a week. Usually that day Friday afternoon, like I'm home and I'm like, I'm thinking to myself and like, how is it that I went five days without even uttering the possibility like giving life the possibility of you know, this Chief's Dolphins game. I wonder if they'll postpone it. The Chiefs Dolphins specifically, right, So I was like, but I was like beaten on myself for not having even brought that up. And I'm like, wow, I mean, like, I wonder what temperature this could get to in the forecast where they tell everybody we're going to do this a different day, and then Saturday morning, it's not that game, it's the other game. It's the uh, it's the the Lake effect blizzard in Buffalo that creates the postponement from Saturday to excuse me, from a Sunday morning to today. And so I was glad then I didn't bring up anything because I would have the wrong game anyway.

It's funny you thought that, because when that news came down, I kind of did the whole Why did like nobody talked about this all week? It felt like like nobody talked about this evening a possibility. I felt so stupid that I had yes, yes, so that I mean you no, I hear you. We were discussing this yesterday, like, ay, what point is it, like you bring a child right to that Kansas City game.

Like, at what point is that too dangerous?

Well?

Because and then I also and I was corroborated by some doctors I know who are like, yeah, that's like super dangerous, Hawn. And we saw helmets getting cracked down. I feel like right, I mean so clearly. But anyway, so that was that's the sort of biggest off the field headline of the weekend. And and yesterday the conditions in Buffalo are going to be cold, but they will not have the wind issue that they would have had. So that's a go today in the first of two games. The other things before we get into those, though, I also felt like this weekend, and I'll just get off the the off the field stuff first, I'll just brain dump it now. Is I felt like it was this weird beyond me not communicating that possibility. I felt like it was a weird weekend just in terms of all the stuff going on around the games. First of all, the Peacock NBC game, which was the Chiefs and the Dolphins game. You know, there's already millions, tens of millions of Americans who already angry as could be the fact that that game was on streaming only, and then for them to have the audacity, right, the moxie, the chutzpah to have the whole ad campaign of be a part of history, right, which I thought was like, are you are they for real.

Proved this right last Tariko went going through the numbers of how successful.

I was like, what is going on right now?

Then, like, I just think there's like stuff that goes on to that you know announced we know that's happening, but we don't really know the depths of which. So Aj Brown can't play today for the Eagles. He removed all connection to the Eagles off social media, and I thought to myself, I'm like, what is the Eagles story? We're not being told? Like how much has Sirianni lost this locker room? What's going on behind the scenes in Philly. We we know that it's gone bad, just how bad? I'm not sure we're getting the full story.

Well, well, that would be the only way these rumors even make sense to me of being if they lose Aj Brown in a boxing match on Saturday night he did in Atlantic City.

Sure that makes sense. And then what was the other one? The other one was like during the first half of the Cowboys disaster against the Packers yesterday, and we'll get into all that. Did you feel like Kevin Burkhardt for the first half of that game, kept harping on this point that something was off between Dak and CD Lamb that went beyond what was actually happening on the field. Like he said at five different times where he's like, oh, there's something, there's something going on, like he had to know something that he wasn't able to share with the audience that was beyond what was actually happening on a guy who just hadn't had any catches yet. I just thought there was all these weird things happening around the farm.

But I thought it was odd. Don't get me, I thought it was odd. He kept saying that. I did think it was I did just think that, like the CD connection was odd.

For the fifth time, I was like, what, just tell us what she right, Let's tell us what you know. I mean, those first what like three throws to CD Lamb was like it looked like two guys that had never played catch together before.

It was incredible.

It's very odd anyway, as far as today's games, so we'll get it everything from the weekend here in depth, but as far as today's games are concerned, so on the Beating the Book Megapod, we usually do three games a week in a normal NFL week. This is the week where we only do two six wild card weekend game, so we only pick our two best bets. Mine both happen to be today as a result of the postponement of the Bill Steelers game. Now here's the deal. I'm on the Steelers plus ten. But a huge part of that handicap was they're going to play in all this wind condition thirty to fifty miles per hour. Whatever forecast you bought into this past week, Now that's not going to happen. The wind is going to be tame by comparison today. So do I like my Steelers plus the ten? And by the way, it should be mentioned that depending on the book at which you bet here, this is either a refund for you avoided bet and you have to bet it again if you want to, or the bet stands. Some books are going to say it has to be the day, the actual day of schedule. Others are going to say it stands for a certain amount of time. So I am I won't say stuck with this Steelers plus ten, but I certainly don't love it as well.

Sure of course, no, you're stuck with it. It's you wouldn't have made the bed otherwise I would not have.

I mean in that way.

We had multiple guests on that made the made the same bet for the same reason.

Well, we had people who took the Steelers on the money line, remember.

Right, Yeah, I mean we're talking. Yeah, this is I'm looking at the weather. Weather now, it's supposed it's getting better and better as every hour goes on.

From yesterday. It looks like it's my kickoff time.

We're gonna have like ten ish miles an hour mile an hour sustained wins with gust at like fifteen and a ball me eighteen degrees right, which is cold, but obviously what we saw Saturday in Kansas City not all that cold by comparison. So I am stuck with that bed. Ken, the Steelers keep it within ten, I hope so, but I wouldn't have bet on it quite frankly.

So that's the thing. Ken, the Steelers sun enough clock here today. Do you have any play on this game at all? Oh?

I had a I love my teaser leg position, but that was tied in with the Dallas Cowboys, so that's out the window.

Yeah, right now, nothing on this game.

I still think that there's Buffalo side I'd like to get involved with somehow. I just haven't figured that. I haven't figured that out exactly yet.

Okay, it might be an in game look, might be looking looking at a team total over or something like that. Four thirty Eastern, one thirty Pacific for that same schedule as the last two days now and then Philly and Tampa is tonight. The eight fifteen Eastern, five point fifteen Pacific game tonight scheduled in this time slot, as it has been, the Eagles two and a half point favorites. It's kind of hung there all week two and a half three, we're seeing three as a consensus. Now Eagles three point favorites at Tampa Bay. I got the Eagles minus two and a half early in the week, and again I admit it the flimsiest of all handicaps. And I should say I had four bets, I split them. I had Houston that got home. I had Miami which didn't. And again I couldn't have been more wrong about that game. But I the flimsy handicap on the Eagles is it can't be that bad, right, They can't suck this mon much that a team that had been so good and even through the ten and one record, I was the first person to say they shouldn't have been ten and one. They probably should have lost multiple of those games. But they can go into Tampa Bay and be this outfit, can't they? And now you hear all the AJ Brown stuff, And I'm like, do I love this bet? I don't love this bet either. So I have two. I got both both Pennsylvania teams, one getting the points, one giving the points, and I don't love either of them quite frankly, one because of a postponeman and the other one because as news keeps trickling in, it starts to dawn on you. Oh this might be every bit as bad as they're making it out to me.

Yeah, I'm feeling the same way I did end up over the weekend putting a small bet in on the Eagles minus two and a half as well.

So I'll be right at that one with you.

But it's I mean, and I really wish I could add to it, but it's really it's really your same handicap, man.

It is the Egles really this bad.

Going into Tampa with I think Baker Mayfield's going to try to tough guy it out right through some off here. I just can't imagine that the Eagles are gonna lose this game, but man, this team has been awful down the stretch.

So now again keep in mind, the only division game that is set, the only division game that is set is Green Bay at San Francisco. We'll talk about that. That's gonna be the Saturday night game. The first game on Saturday will be once again the Houston Texans timeslot, which Buddhist Man had a great teet yesterday said, if the Texans advanced to the Super Bowl, they're gonna move it to the early times launched Saturday. Now, while we know that it is going to be Green Bay at San Francisco Saturday night, we await who Detroit will play Sunday morning, the winner of that Tampa Bay Philadelphia game. And as far as the AFC is concerned, that is very much up in the air with the Bills Steelers outcome. If the Bills do win that game, the Bills will host the Kansas City Chiefs in the three to two game in the AFC. If the Steelers somehow emerge victorious, they will go to play Pittsburgh and Houston will go to Kansas City otherwise in the scenario where Kansas City plays Buffalo, Houston will go play at Baltimore. So we'll give up. We'll get potential predictions. We'll give a guessing lines predictions on all of that coming up on the show. I have no clock, so you have to tell me when we're out. We're out, No, no, no.

Who about solid fifteen seconds?

Oh, there's the music. The music tells me when we're out there. Fifteen seconds where it's it's construction outside, it's MLK days, all kinds of things happening here at the d We'll get it figured out. We'll come back. We'll go through these games one by one. We'll do win a reverse order. Let's start with yesterday's as we do a faux guessing lines. Potential matchups coming up on a numbers game at Visa the Sports Betting Network.

A numbers game on Visa the Sports Betting Network.

Start your morning with a daily dose of winning strategies insider tips in the latest buzz with the free Vsent Daily newsletter. In today's newsletter, all the talk about today's two games, and a look back on everything that happened over the weekend in the NFL. Plus I'm Australian Open talk as well. We'll have Zach Gohen on Zach Cohen on the show a little later on to talk Aussie open as well. But that's in the newsletter. Get expert analysis in the latest odds delivered straight to your inbox, absolutely free. Visit visa dot com slash newsletter to subscribe, written by the Great Bill Ady, which Kelly overactive in the video of the nod hadnond is. That was perfect bitterness fourteen takes. But you know, okay, we get tweets at beating the book, Kelly, I just want to read these couple because this will seguey right into the game. We want to talk about Las Vegas five one four. Who's a Skins fan? He said, Yo, is it me? Or? Can this Dallas loss be one of the most embarrassing moments in Dallas football history? Glad to witness it, lmao. There is something about and this might apply to Eagles fans and Giants fans, but it really applies to Skins fans, which is, there's something that takes us back to our childhood when the Cowboys lose in a playoff game, especially that spectacularly. There is a little thing inside your inside your little boy body where you're just you remember how joyous it was.

Yeah, we had a we had a great Eagles kiss on yesterday ty on Live Bet Sunday.

Uh, what was the wording he used?

It won't be a great weekend if the Eagles don't win, but it can't be a bad weekend.

Cost We used to say, it's a you know, the the However, what happened in Washington game win or lose would determine our mood for the rest of the week. But if Dallas lost, it was still salvaged. Jason h eleven. The way Burkhardt was carrying on. Uh, you talk about Dak and CD, what I brought up earlier, you'd think Dak caught CD with his wife the night before. Remember in Major League when Dorin's wife picks up Ricky Vaughan at the bar. I did think it was bizarre how he just kept on about it and it was like okay, And then the second half when they finally connected, Uh, it sort of got muted. But let's start with that game because that's obviously the one that's going to i mean dominate e s If you get ready for four weeks of ESPN talking about it, that demise the Cowboys. The game started yesterday, Packers won the toss, was a little guessing lines that you're here kind of guessing line. Oh, weird guessing lines. We just don't know all the matchups.

Yeah, exactly, this is like real guess. This is really guessing when you got multiple matchups to get. That's right, that's actually even more fun.

So here's this. So if Packers won the toss, they elected to receive, they go twelve plays, seventy five yards, Jones in from three touchdown, Packers up seven and nothing, and they churned clock seven oh eight left in the first quarter that Dallas punted, green Bay punted. Then Dallas gets the ball back third and five at their own thirteen dak picked by Jay Yir Alexander oh Boy. Green Bay set up at the nineteen. Three plays later, Jones in from one fourteen to nothing, pack fourteen to fifteen left in the second quarter, Dallas punts again, green Bay ten plays ninety three yards loved to Dontavion Wicks for twenty twenty to nothing. And of course, and Carlson misses a pat As we talked about last week, he always seems to.

Like, how's this guy survived the entire season? I feel like I'd see a missing kick every week.

I think that's a sixth the missed pat of the whole season when you include regular season in postseason. Now, three twenty three left in the second quarter, it's twenty to nothing. And this is when I fired off the tweet, which was hardly original because we had talked about it all last week, and I'm sure others had two, which is, you know, if the Cowboys lose this game, how quickly will Bill Belichick be the head coach? And so I fired off the tweet that I put the over under on Bill Belichick being announced as a Cowboys head coach at this Friday at noon Eastern. This Friday at noon Eastern. And this was before the next sequence of events where Dallas second and two at the green Bay forty dak picked by Darnell Savage sixty four yards to the house, twenty seven and nothing, green Bay with one forty three left in the second quarter, and you thought to yourself, maybe the competitive portion of this game is already over. But Dallas on the last drive of the first half twelve place fifty five yards Dak to Ferguson from one out. That was four plays after Remember Devondre Campbell should have picked another Dak pass at the goal line.

That should have been the second easiest pick. Yes, the second easiest. Is how bad this game was.

And Dallas got bailed terrible Dallas got bailed out and then they end up scoring on the last play of the half when a false start goes uncalled. Remember the refs missed that. The officials missed that. So Dactor Ferguson twenty seven to seven at the half, and you see, for a little bit you said, okay, well, at least they have a double dip opportunity here. If they can matriculate score another touchdown, you know, maybe they're back in this game.

I thought there was game over if they didn't score that touchout at the end of the first half, for sure, because of that situation, right, they had the chance at the double dip at.

Least Love was a thirteen of sixteen for what to eighty five in the first half. My goodness, But those two turnovers, you know, fourteen Green Bay points, one which was a pick six one which set them up in the red zone. So what happens with that first Dallas driving the second half, will they end up with an Aubrey thirty four yard field goal? So twenty seven to ten, So okay, they get a field goal. They keeps him alive also, but at that point it was over because green Bay then so quick, five plays, seventy five yards, Jones in from nine, set up by a forty six yard Loved to Dobbs connection. Thirty four to ten. Then it was all cosmic. Well, it's thirty four to sixteen. Remember Pollard scored in from one. They got flagged on a two point conversion. Here was the first Mike. Here was another Mike McCarthy thing. So Mike McCarthy who got bailed out in that game against Seattle when he made a horrible decision where Dak threw an incomplete pass gave Seattle life late the defense bailed him out. Mike McCarthy who got bailed out in the Detroit game by the officials and the whole Brad Allen thing when Dak threw an incomplete pass when they should have just run it in milk clock at the end, here it was they score, it's thirty four to sixteen. You got to go for two. They get flagged and McCarthy decides to kick the long extra point instead of going from two for two from the twelve. And by the way, Aubrey missed the extra point two he joinked it, so it was still remain thirty four to sixteen. But you have to go for two from the twelve. They're also, yeah, you can't not try it. Green Bay three plays seventy five yards, loved to musk Grave for thirty eight. No one was within twenty yards of him, forty one to sixteen, and from that point on it was just cosmetic, you know. Last play a third quarter, fourth and five, at they're on forty one, Dallas turned over on downs and complete. Green Bay did add another score eight plays forty one yards. Love to Dops. I forgot there was another score where they scored on fourth and two to make it forty eight to sixteen. But then it was Dak to Ferguson to make it forty eight to twenty four. After the two point conversion. Sean Clifford came in the game for green Bay. Dallas win went four plays ninety one yards to make it forty eight to thirty two. After Dak went in from two Dak to Ferguson on the touchdown, and then green Bay put their starters back in loving complete pass on third they you know, that was a bat That was a mistake for Matt Lafloor to throw a pass there to stop the clock. But then Dallas turnover on downs. That was it. Forty eight thirty two. They score much more cosmetic than it really ought to have been. The Packers just murdering them here from the outset forty eight points. Time for the most enfranchised postseason history for the Packers. Love sixteen of twenty one for two seventy two. And even though Dak through for four h three, he was terrible. Should have thrown three picks well in the.

First that was in garbage time too.

It was all garbage and I just I keep getting back to this one. So green Bay advances. By the way, when it was fourteen to nothing, I sent out text everybody. I was like, it's gonna be San Francisco minus ten? Is that what it is? I think that's what it was, exactly right, And that was at fourteen to nothing yesterday, Like that was an obvious spread based on what green Bay was was here at Dallas being just seven, so you figure just add three with San Francisco getting to Dallas, though.

That game will be Saturday night, Saturday night, eight pm.

That's right. The only thing we know. We know Saturday night is the San Francisco game. We know Sunday morning is the game at Detroit. We know Saturday morning will be the game that Houston goes to road. Yeah. But the whole thing with Dak comes back to what if I said a million times on this show through the years. This is the cruelty of National Football League economics, where unless you have a Hall of Fame quarterback or a quarterback who over performs on a rookie contract where you can pay everybody else, you are not winning a Super Bowl. It is just the case. Now. I know the Eagles with Nick Foles is an exception, but Carson Wentz was on the rookie deal, so it doesn't really count. You'd have to go all the way back to Brad Johnson in two thousand and two with Tampa, Trent Dilford with the Ravens in two thousand to find an exception to this quarterback over performing on a rookie quarterback slash, or a Hall of Famer to win a super Bowl. So Dak Prescott, who is, you know, one year away from the Cowboys having to make another decision on him, he does not fall into this category. And so I just you know, this is the problem. You pay Deshaun Watson two hundred and fifty three million dollars every dollar guaranteed, you pay Kirk Cousins, you pay Jared Goff, you pay Dak Press gott on this pass contract. You're not winning super Bowls. You're just not. And so they have to make this decision about Dak much like the Dolphins. We'll get to them with Tua momentarily, because this is he's about to have the fifth year option on his rookie deal. They're gonna have to make a decision in Miami. And I just think this is the problem. You know what I also thought about yesterday Matt Brown, our own Matt Brown, who correctly said all the time, while Dallas's defense was getting all this hype all year, he said it many times, and he said it on this show. Actually, Micah Parsons is the only one generating any kind of pressure. They didn't sack Jordan Love yesterday, and when they did get just the slightest bit of pressure. He destroyed them. And so your defense isn't as good as it was made out to be either. Maybe Deron Blanz picked six has made us.

Covered up a lot, covered up a lot.

Also, Yeah, this was I mean, look, we're not going to be you know, other four letter networks talking about the Dallas Cowboys for four hours today. But I mean, to some it all up, this was, I mean a complete fell flat on everywhere right. Dak was terrible. The defense was terrible. I mean that for half, I mean the entire game.

Dan quinn looks worse after that game than Mike McCarthy did.

Yeah, absolutely, everybody looks bad.

But you're talking about receivers running wide open in the Dallas secondary. There's no pressure being generated the run game that you knew Green Bay was going to test you with that you didn't adjust it all throughout the entirety of the game.

It was amazing. Terrible coaching, terrible quarterback play.

I was shocked. I don't know if I'm laying ten with San Francisco, but I think San Francisco advances They're not gonna have the same problem with Green Bay.

I don't think so either.

The Man Jordan, Lovely There Jones, you hold the clipboard, you turn out Man, good tow works, coming back skill Alexander, It's kept Midlin Live from bar Canada at the D Happy MLK Junior Day. This was a huge deal when I was growing up in DC. Had to fight to make this a holiday, to make this a national holiday. Stevie Wonder's Happy Birthday is about this. I know a lot of people think always just making a happy birthday song. It was about this holiday, and so it was a huge deal growing up in DC. I don't get the impression in my adult life that it really uh pervaded. I know when I used to work in San Francisco, they used to give us a choice between President's Day and MLK Day. I once got a parking ticket on MLK Day. I remember saying, it's a national holiday. They're like, no, it's not, buddy. I'm like this, it is your excuse for getting a party. I was like, it's a national what you can't oh you can?

I speed ticket for going twenty over officer.

It was Christmas Come by the way, King Dream chorus. If you're interested in a great MLK flashback, do it after the show. Though King dream Courus. Okay, we're doing this in a in a all out of order. By the way, let me just do this though. Let me read some tweets here because folks have some stuff to say. One this is from Terry Lash. He says, are you sure Bill would want any part of DAK in that Cowboy team? Here's here's the case for Bill Belichick going to the Cowboys. The Patriots were just four and thirteen, and by the way, they were lucky to get to four. Some could say, but four and thirteen you're on the Mount Rushmore of NFL head coaches. You don't want it ending that way. And the quickest way you can go to rehab that is to go to a team that has parts in place. And yes, after what I just said, do I think DAK can win a Super Bowl? I don't, But like, if Bill Belichick can have a successful season with them, they're already a playoff team at least, right, could he bring them over the playoff hump? He will think so, and it will rehab that four and thirteen quicker than it would with any other team.

Yeah, I think that's well said.

I mean, how many assuming he's an extremely self confident head coach, which I would kind of hope almost Deffree coaches rightfully him, especially like what you know, you're getting a playoff you are getting a playoff team. So is the difference between you and Mike McCarthy and Jason Garrett the fact that you can lead them to.

A super Bowl should be right?

I would think there might be, and that Bill Belichick probably thinks there is that kind of difference between him and those others.

The point is if you don't think his ego is telling him he's got to rehab that four to thirteen, trust me, it is as great a coach as.

He was fourteen wins from the record. I think it's f.

Fourteen to tie fifteen. I think you go ahead, Kevin clone Bone. I know it's a regular season award, But if you reverse the Texans final game score in Flacco wins in that fashion, is he submitted as comeback player? The voters are only human? Is it possible this cost him that award? Now, well, it is a regular season award, so it doesn't cost him. But to your premise, yeah, if that was a regular season game, I think we'd be in here the next week saying there's no chance he wins the comeback Player of the Year.

Correct, Yes, I mean at least for at least how our conversations have went. If that was a week nineteen, yes, we'd be sitting here saying this is done.

Dwar Hamlin just one.

Michael Burns bet Dallas pre flop during Packers first drop. I continually bet pack in game for quite a while. I knew quickly something was a miss. Thanksgill, I'm learning. Glad you did that. Jason da Wall, how often do you play many game script in gameplays like DAK over alt passing yards live? Yep, I didn't put in retrospective, of course, good idea. Love the show. Well, I'll tell you who did. Todd did Will? Did Todd wishnev Will Hill? They did that. They immediately jumped on it. And the lament afterwards was why didn't we bet tenfold that on DAK?

Yeah?

I think, I think?

Yeah.

The over attempts was the first thing I went and looked at. I mean you basically saw, I mean we were talking about here a love best side. We basically saw this same gameplay out in Houston right the day.

Before, where it was what did Joe Flacco gonna do? And what are they?

What are the Cowboys gonna do? You're gonna air it out a million times.

Let's talk about the Rams in Detroit, which was the obviously the last of the four games, the only competitive game of the bunch this weekend. Imagine if there was no such thing as betting. Oh Man, what a weekend that would have been. This game, though, this was the one competitive game, which Detroit, of course wins by a point where I after the game, I was like, Kelly, I don't really know what to make of what I just saw, because it felt like Detroit should have been killing them early, and then it felt like Detroit had no business winning it late, and yet they did.

Only I know Gilz who was a deadlock under from the get go.

Okay, the easiest winner of the week, get for me game started Detroit. If you werecall ten, play seventy five yards Montgomery in from one, seven to nothing. Lions Rams came all the way back twenty four yard field goal from Maher. But here's where again, like of all the calls I've made this year, Kelly, oh, and I've made some good ones. Carolina Panthers last winless Jordan love the Puka Nakua thing where I said that Cooper Cup kept I mean that uh Pat Matt Stafford kept feeding his boyfriend all year. I hope now y'all know I wasn't joking after watching this game so with me and McVeigh, is terrible that they're in the red zone. So three incomplete passes there they ended up settling them for a field goal seven to three. Detroit. Detroit comes right back, five play, seventy five yards, Gibbs in from ten. It's fourteen to three Detroit with a minute and a half, one thirty one left in the first court, and you're like, this is gonna be a rat out right another route? Nope, Rams end up with a third and sixteen. You're already in that mode, like is this going to be a route? Stafford to DeMarcus Robinson for nineteen at the last play of the first quarter that led to Stafford to Puka Nakoupa fifty yard touchdown, fourteen to ten Detroit, thirteen twenty four left. Second quarter, Detroit comes right back, eleven play, seventy five yards, fourth and goal golf to Laporta, who ends up playing from two out twenty one to ten Detroit. It's another thing about this weekend. First of all, like the injury reports, there was a few things like there's like different rules in the postseason. Not only like Laporter on the injury always playing now, but like when Patrick mahomes helmet got cracked, it's like, okay, now you sit out of play and someone else comes in. Oh no, we'll just take all the time you need. Patrick. When when Stafford and Puka both went into the tent later and they were like, oh what, they're back on the field. How did they get cleared so quickly? Anyway, twenty one to ten Detroit, Rams end up with fourth and five of the Detroit forty four, Stafford to cover for six, next place Stafford to two to two for thirty eight to two at well, twenty one to seventeen Detroit. That ends the half after Detroit ends up punting and the Rams get the ball at the other half, so it's twenty one to seventeen. Would turn into a game that looked looked at first like the lines were gonna blow him out. Then it just became a shootout. Twenty one to seventeen at the half and Dan Campbell with Melissa Stark on the way back onto the field. They haven't punted. He was very angry about that, very emotional. All right, Rams start with the ball, though, right, They get the ball, try to you know, take a lead here. They end up punting on the first drive of the half. They waste a time out during that sequence, file that away. Detroit ends up with a Badgely fifty four yard field goal, which I thought was a bad decision to let him kick it. He nails it, which I didn't think Badly was capable of twenty four to seventeen. I know he's capable in the pass, but it wasn't having a good stretch here. Twenty four to seventeen, Lions eight forty one left in the third quarter, Kelly, that's the last time they would score just those three points in the second half of the Lions. Twenty four to seventeen. Then the Rams come down. They match it with a Maher twenty seven yard field goal to make it twenty four to twenty. Remember that was the drive where Stafford had to go to the tent and Pooko had to go to the tent. Detroit punts again. Rams matriculate again. Maher twenty nine yard field goal to make it twenty four to twenty three with eight ten left in the fourth quarter, they burned another time out the Rams did on that drive, file that away that's to burn now. So there's that Detroit three and oh oh, by the way, that was the sequence also when they settled for the Maher field goal to cut it twenty four to twenty three, where Chris collins Worth finally voiced where I've been voicing all year, which is they gotta stop trying to feed Cooper Cup down there. And I'm like, hallelujah, if only somebody hadn't been screaming about this all year in more colorful terms like miself, Detroit three and out seven eighteen fourth quarter Rams down a point, they get it to. Here's the fascinating part of the game. It ends up being fourth and four, so they end up getting matriculating into the Lion's territory. There's a penalty called on the Rams, and so Dan Campbell has a choice. Does he decline it and allow it to be fourth and four, which would have precipitated a fifty two yard field goal try for Maher, or does he take the penalty and make it third and fourteen from outside a field goal range. He takes the penalty, and I will be honest with you, in the moment, I thought to myself, I'm like, wow, I think I would have let Maher try that fifty two yarder because I don't think he could have made it. I could have been wrong. We'll never know. He takes the penalty.

I agreed with it, but this is one of those I'm like this, this decision is.

Really tough, really tough. Third and fourteen Stafford incomplete to Nakua. And when I say incomplete, no call for anything, not a defensive hold, not a PI, not a illegal hit. We have several we have snapshots and we have a tweet on both these nothing called nothing. So there's there's the hold on the left. If you're watching at Visa dot com or on YouTube TV here there's the hold on the left, or on the DK network, there's the interference on the right. When the ball's in the air, you take your pick. And then he just got smacked by two people. By the way, Matt Stafford when he hurt his hand and he was like a good like he got hit. I can't believe there was no flag on Matt. The one where he got hit twice and he banged this. But here's a coach, Dan Casey, pick one, defensive holding, pass interference, late hit, none of them called, and so Detroit ends up punting. Which how in the world does Sean McVay punt when you only have one time out left there? Just at least at least try it on fourth and fourteen. They never see the ball again. Never see the ball again. By the way, the Rams should have considered letting them score like a sixty yard touchdown just to get the ball all back down eight or maybe Dan Campbell would have gone for two anyway, I don't know, but I'm just saying it was just a coaching nightmare. At the end, we're coming back.

Numbers Game Sports Betting Network and Kelly.

Sometimes I come in here, you tell me I look like a marshmallow, and now you're telling me I look like a polar phone.

My God brought it up before my side, which it is.

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So I saw that first commercial break last night. I see it as I'm like walking to the kitchen, and I'm like, wait, did I.

Just hear that right?

And I'm like, nah, I couldn't possibly have hurt it, right?

Yeah? Man?

And then it plays the second time and I meant the text y if we got the text me, I was like, this is obviously she said, she said the she said it's so funny. They felt like they had to switch out the line, Like, clearly we were not the only people seizing on the marshmallow name yeah.

Talking about Zoe Salt. Donam by the way, well inside jokes here so the beautiful Zoe Salt dot ya? Who who?

Uh?

They just decided to edit the end of the commercial. How many other takes did they do that? Right? Like, I was like, marshmallow poll or bar we could get a rhinoceros next week. I have no idea else dying. We get texts, we get tweets, we get text This is from Richard Palma, who says, uh he says, is it too late for my Jordan Love m VP ticket? And is it too love for Is it too late for my Mapmafloor Coach of the Year ticket? Is it too late? Is it too late for my Pooka Akua shared offensive Rookie of the Year ticket? Like, I mean, some of these were such great bets and they're not going to get home.

I mean, we brought it up already this year, but like that, that was a game. Like that, everybody, everybody not named Gil Alexy is sitting on sitting watching that game.

Yesterday with Akua and you're just like, you showed up in the wrong year.

Yeah, Like that's the best the worst I can say, Like it is, you had an incredible season, you showed up.

In the wrong thing. I say about Tommy hearns his entire boxing career. I'm like he is. His only misfortune was that he showed up when Chiffi, Ray Leonard and Marvin Hagler.

Were It applies to all the tennis grets, right, like the fact that yeah, playing.

At the same time we had tweets. Chris Hartman guilty your point. The entire twenty one quarterback draft class started year one except for Trey Lance and Love, who's had for three years is better by Miles. The instant gratification quarterback culture has to change Burrow and Stroud, and I'll add I'll go ahead and now and I'll add my man Justin Herbert to that as well. Or the exception not the rule. Bryce Young could have used an intern year. Absolutely, Chris Sells. It seems all the talk is Harbaugh to the Raiders in Seattle. I would think the Patriots would be a great fit for him. Your thoughts, My thoughts are the Patriots have already hired their coach, Gerrod Mayo. I don't know if you heard that, Phil Wis, Oh boy, Phil Weiss, he's angry. Belichick made over one hundred and fifty million riding the coattails of a six round pick. Why would he allow himself to be exposed as the fraud that he's always been by taking the Dallas job? Easy, easy, Phil Weison? Uh, Hut O'Connor, I'm sure you saw.

It really fired people up in the past week.

Oh yeah, Jutt O'Connor. He's sending me the picture of Stafford with the eyes when he was knocked down. He said, granted, I'm happy he came back with my stafford completed passes prop but there are there are there fines coming for that. And then shots of Buffalo with people still taking down this, you know, taking snow off the field here today, they got some work to do, and or Bruce do big and those with Cooper Cup anytime touchdowns we're telling Collinsworth to shut up. You're telling me to shut up. Also, if you had heard me, all right, which game you want to go to next year? Call?

You know what?

I got a you know what we didn't do?

Do we do? A guest? Oh no, we didn't do it? You got theoretical lines actually from draft Oh okay, so, Mike, so again, I had Green Bay as a ten point dog at San Francisco, and then I have if it's Tampa Bay that wins tonight, I have them as six and a half point dogs at Detroit, and if it's Philly, keeping in mind that if Philly wins, some of that Philly feeling might start to seep into people's brains, I would say Detroit minus two and a half.

Okay, So the lines I got from DraftKings this morning, Lions three over the Eagles. Lions seven over the bus on a half point half on each half point low on each. Okay, currently not posted.

I have a feeling my AFC guesses are going to be farther off, but that further off. But I think that that's about right.

All right, let's go Saturday afternoon. Let's do the great Texans Browns game.

Oh, the first game on Saturday. This was a great Saturday, was a great day for a great day for my exactness, because I have San Francisco beating Baltimore, Kansas City, and.

Buffalo, I also got knocked out.

I also have Baltimore beating San Francisco, which won't win me as much, but I have that also. So like Cleveland and Miami getting knocked out was perfect because I never had bets on those. But Cleveland goes out first at Houston. Remember this was weird at the beginning. Cleveland punted on the first drive, it was nearly blocked. Then Houston they had a passed a Dalton Schultz which he just straight up dropped and they had to punt. Then Cleveland with another three and out. Then Houston ended up third and six of the Cleveland forty one stroud to Collins for thirty eight, setting up first and goal of the three, and Houston had to settle for a fair baar and twenty one yard field goal, so the Shultz drop and then not cashing in on the second drive, it only ended up being three to nothing Houston five point twenty nine left in the first quarter, and then Cleveland got into it right Flacko ton A Joku for forty five on the first play, five plays later, Hunted from one, seven to three Cleveland. Houston did match up four plays, seventy five yard Singletary for twenty nine, then to metch You for twenty seven, two plays later to Collins from fifteen out, ten to seven Houston final seconds of the first quarter. But then Cleveland came right back Flaccot to Harrison Brant for forty seven and to the first quarter. Five plays later, Fla go to Hunt for eleven, fourteen to ten Cleveland twelve eighteen left in the second quarter, and You're like, wow, this is going to be a shootout too. Houston. One play Stroud to Brevin Jordan for seventy six, seventeen to fourteen Texans. I'm like, what are we watching? Seventeen to fourteen Houston twelve minutes left in the second quarter, the longest pass play of the season, longest play of the season for the Texans. Then on the first play of the ensuing drive, a PI that goes uncalled on Nadjoku. Remember Flacco goes into Joku, He's clearly interfered, with no flags, and it felt like from that moment on nothing would ever go Cleveland's way again. They end up with a three and out. Houston gets tunseled back who was out for a little bit. Stroud overthrows Collins wide open downfield on third down, so there was a three an ounce, so was still a three point game, but Cleveland punted again. Houston eight plays, seventy one yards, Stroud to Schultz for thirty seven touchdown, twenty four to fourteen. Houston won eleven left in the second quarter, and that would be the score at the half. Cleveland's last three drives in the first half zero points, eighteen yards. And then in the third quarter Houston would punt, and here's where the game obviously gets out of hand. First intend at their own thirty four, so you scuse me, First intend at the Houston thirty four. Flacco, under pressure, throws it up picked by Steven Nelson eighty two yards of the house, thirty one to fourteen Houston. Cleveland next possession, fourth and two at their own thirty three Flacco pick six to Christian Harris, thirty eight to fourteen. The competitive portion of this game was over. Cleveland never did anything again, turnover on downs, turnover on downs, and the game fizzle from there and a turnover on downs to close things out. So, by the way, here here is the entirety of Cleveland's drives for the entire game. They lose huge to the Texans. They lose forty five to fourteen in a completely non competitive football game. But here's all ten Houston drives punt three and out. Cleveland drive s right, Cleveland, I'm sorry. Cleveland drives from the beginning of the game, punt three and out, touchdown, touchdown three and out, punt halftime, excuse me. Eleven drives second half pick six, pick six downs, downs downs, turnover on downs those three so they literally had out of eleven drives, one of which was the end of the half. But let's say ten legit drives two touchdowns and two touchdowns, three turnover on downs, three punts, two pick sixes.

It's almost like they had a thirty eight year old Joe Flacco quarterback in their team with absolutely no running game Gill.

So almost, like we said a million times last week, he's got a stinker in him, it's gonna happen.

At some point.

That was a look at the over of the game. I'm happy and it resulted that way. But uh yeah, that was That was the Cleveland dud that I think was count at some point.

I listen, I talked myself into Houston last week. I'm glad I did because the second game Miami I got completely wrong. So I'm happy it did happen. But a lot of people had talked themselves into Cleveland being or The question was, who's the team you don't want to play in the playoffs. If it's not Baltimore and San Francisco, who's the team that gets? Answer became Cleveland. Answer became Cleveland. Yes for a lot of people, Yeah, not so much, not so much.

I mean, if anything, I think this, Uh, I mean, I'm still gonna say it's Buffalo if they count. I don't know if they count anymore. But like I mean, Houston, I don't I don't want to play his team right now. Well, this kid, he's great. He cannot He's great, he cannot be phased guilt. I mean this is wide receivers go down, offensive linemen go down.

It doesn't matter.

He can't run the ball, it doesn't matter.

C J. Stroud and Jordan love doing things that that people didn't think they could do. Incredible.

I think probably the Texans defense shows up and lets them down at some point year during those this run.

But in addition to my Matt Lafleur Coach of the Year and pookin a coup offensive Rookie of the Year tickets, where do I go to cash those? Where do I go to cash my NFL Draft first pick in the draft? CJ? Stroud tickets? Where'd I go? I can't I those are gone.

We're not going to shut up about that.

For Houston at Kansas City, these are there. Either one of these is going to be in Saturday morning Houston. They stick in the Saturday morning, Saturday early. I should say Houston at Casey, I have k C minus seven and a half. If it's Houston at Baltimore at Baltimore.

Minus ten, I'll take you seven and a half of the Houston, Texas.

If that's the line, Wait, which is there's two options? Which one is which you'll tell us after the break?

Yeah?

Okay, the numbers told the story.

They always do.

It's a onnose. Idiots will believe in the analytics.

This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander vis hour.

Number two of a numbers game at Visa and these sports betting network, Visa dot Com, Visa that game plus iHeartRadio, You Tube TV. How are you taking us in this morning? We appreciate it. Thanks for making us part of your Martin Luther King Junior birthday holiday. Gil Alexander Ken'tley Bidlin live from Gadada here at the d the barrage. So before we went into break, well, let me read these tweets real quick, just three of them. I want to get too fear into Stephen Vegas, who's in charge of the lead in and out music today from commercial breaks? Dan Quinn, what's wrong with the song with our music? Anything? He's beautiful, It's wonderful. Oh you can't hear me, Bruce, do do big? And reacting to not only Chris Collinsworth killing Sean McVay for his play calling and Matt Stafford trying to feed Cooper Cup incessantly, and I said that, you know you're also telling me to Shay, he adds, he goes, and you shut up by your face too, Gil, He says, nevade'ser, what a gift McVeigh got facing Zach Taylor at Super Bowl fifty six? Is blake calling still leaves a lot to be desired. Yes, Listen, people love Sean McVay. He was what was he thirty when he got the job, or you know, just the youngest coach ever and he won a Super Bowl. But I just I will say this again, if you watch that team all year, and I know there was the Kira and Williams stretch down the end where they sort of figured it out, but there was a massive part of the season where they just tried to force feed Cooper Cup too much. You saw a little of it yesterday as well. And I think that. I think he's a terrible play caller in the red zone also, and so I do think in a certain respect he is a scoch overrated Rams. Money gets there. Though the Rams do get the cover, they just don't get the game in a game where once again I feel like the other three were blowouts and this one I was just sort of at the end, I was like, I don't know how I even feel about that game, because it felt like the Lions should have been crushing them and the Rams were just banged up, I mean Stafford's hand, then his head, I mean everything, And then I felt like the Lions had no business winning it, only scoring three points in the second half. So I sort of like, you know what A you called it before the break? He was like a competition of mediocre head coaching. Yeah.

Yeah, it was just it felt like a game that from what you had seen in the first half, like at some point in the second half we were going to get poor fireworks out of it, and it just kind of never happened.

I got a limb to the finish line.

I agree that I think that the fourth and fourteen, excuse me, the fourth and four versus the third and fourteen was a really interesting choice where in the moment, if I'm being honest, I thought he made the wrong one. I would have let Maher kick the fifty two yarder try it, but Dan Campbell took that penalty. Then no call made on that third fourteen from Stafford to Takua, not a PI, not a hole, not a late hit. And then Sean McVay doesn't even go forward on fourth and fourteen. He punts it with one time out left. If you have three timeouts left, different story. But if you have one time out left, there's so much pressure on your defense to like get him all off the field, and they couldn't. And then, by the way, there is that other thing at the end where it's sort of like, well, what do you do here? Do you just sort of matadore them into the end zone, like here go sixty yards and score real quick if you would. But who knows that what day Cable does. And I'm just saying it's like it was just such a fitting end, if you will, to the Sean McVay experience. And I don't. I don't feel all that confident about the Lions. I already we guessed that line, and you said I was a half point light on whether it's either the Bucks or the Eagles at the Lions. Before we went to break, I made the guesses about Houston because we talked about the Houston game. If it's Houston at Kansas City, I said seven and a half if it's Houston at Baltimore, I said, uh, did I say ten or ten and a half? I wrote them down I sent you. I want to be accurate. Guess was ten? I said ten on the button. And you're saying you would, you would. You don't know what those lines are, but you said you'd grab the seven and a half in a heartbeat, you said, I think I would. Yep, I would, even if it's freezing, insane game conditions and all that stuff.

Oh okay, well we'll have to pump the breaks a little.

But there, which I was come.

So here's the thing. Let's let's talk about Miami Kansas City.

I don't know for sure i'd be better get that you will. I'd have to wait and see it.

But so Miami at Kansas City, the one game we haven't talked about yet, starts out minus four degrees fahrenheit with a windshill of minus twenty seven. By the end of the game, it got to minus nine fahrenheit and minus twenty eight wind chill. I talked about the Peacock of Missugus at the beginning, like, oh, be a part of history, really, thanks so much. What an opportunity at fl in peacock and then the Mahomes helmet thing like the helmets are chipping and it's like we're still playing this game.

Terminator two out there. He was just so frozen over. One hit just cracked the whole helmet.

I couldn't have been more wrong about this game. I immediately guessing the lines last week grabbed the Dolphins. I said the Chief shouldn't be more than three point favorites over everybody, over anybody at this point in the playoff situation. Then when the week went on and the cold became a big deal, I regretted it. I was like, oh, I got the worst of it. This is bad. I don't feel so great about it in the end. We'll talk about it after this. But was it the cold? Was it Tua? Was it the injuries? Was it the fact that Dolphins just would have lost the same way if it wasn't that cold game started out?

Yeah, the the I didn't get. I wasn't involved in this one. I was dead wrong though too. You can't tell me for a second, like if all the things we talked about with the weather, this with this game is past week, I don't believe for a second that the Dolphins weren't vastly more affected by that than the Kansas That.

Then that that was exactly what I was going to bring up at the end of the synopsis, which is, if the Dolphins end up using that as a tacit or spoken excuse, that's a bad thing because I'm not sure it ends up differently. I can't prove it, right, I can't prove that it would have ended that it wouldn't have ended up differently. Yeah, I get that impression.

I mean, it's an NFL playoff game. You can't Yeah, you can't be using those type of excuses.

But yes, I felt like it mattered a whole lot more for Miami.

The city started nine plays sixty nine yards Mahomes to Rice from eleven to seven to nothing, KC Miami three and out, then a Kansas City three and out after Hardman, remember couldn't track that deep ball for Mahomes. Miami had a second in inches at their own forty four and the subsequent drive that turned into a third and six at their own thirty nine two a picked by Mike Edwards on the overthrow three h three left in the first quarter, still Kansas City up seven to nothing. Butckker would aud a field goal to make it ten to nothing early second quarter, and then Miami two plays tua to Tyreek from fifty three to cut it to ten to seven. You're like, all right, maaybi, Miami's got something. Nope, Kansas City fourth and five at the Miami thirty eight mahomes for twenty eight on the ground. They settled for a Buttker field goal, thirteen to seven. Kansas City settling for Buttker field goals ends up being the theme of this game and kept this score muted quite frankly. Miami fourth and one at the CAC forty four to incomplete intended for Reek after a third and one went incomplete. Then Kansas City three and out after a defensive hold went uncalled on Brandon Jones covering Hardman, so the Dolphins actually caught a break down six. Miami three and out one fifty five left in the second quarter. Kansasity would add another Butker field goal before the end of the half, sixteen to seven at halftime, and if you're Kansas City and you're only down nine, you're thinking to yourself, that ain't that bad. Actually, because they were out they were you know, two at that play was six at that point was six of eleven for ninety four, with fifty three of them coming on the one Tyreek touchdown, and they were being out gained two fifty seven to one thirty six. The Dolphins were at the half. At halftime, the Dolphins had five total first downs. The Chiefs had had four trips inside the red zone, So five first downs for the Dolphins, four trips inside the red zone for the Chiefs, and the Chiefs were only leading by nine. Third quarter of Miami had the ball first two, so you're thinking, man, they could actually make this a really tight game. But three and out Kansas City, butcker twenty one yard field goal to make it nineteen to seven. That was the drive where Mahomes chipped the helmet on the thirteen yard run, but they had to settle for that field goal. There nineteen to seven. Miami another punt, Casey then blew it open fourteen plays, seventy two yards, but check go in from three made it twenty six to seven. Then Miami turnover on downs Kansas City three. Now Miami turnover on downs Kansas City up with that score, a fumble by Clyde Edwards, a lair late and even with one away to go, Miami couldn't do anything with that even cosmetically. So that was your final score, twenty six to seven. Chefs, they cover easily as five point favorites, and quite frankly, the game wasn't that close. And so I get back to that question at the beginning, which is, first of all, good on the Chiefs. If Pittsburgh wins here, excuse me, pardon me. If Pittsburgh wins here, Kansas City would actually get another home game. So there is a scenario today where if Pittsburgh somehow beat Buffalo, where we still would not get to see Patrick Mahomes Road to playoff game. Now if Buffalo does and we will see our first wild Patrick Mahomes Road a playoff game next week at Buffalo. If Buffalo wins tonight, and then Houston would go to Baltimore. So good on the Chiefs. You know, sometimes just Patrick Mahomes himself is you know, he's the best player on the field. Will Will Hill had an interesting comment this week or during this game. He said he feels like Patrick Mahomes is still the best player in the NFL and that the difference between him and the second best player is a wider gap than he ever remembers in any other year ever. And my instant reaction was that can't be. And then you start thinking about it, You're like, well, if you think Patrick Mahomes is still by far the best player in the NFL, maybe it is the widest gap ever this year. I don't know. But good on the Chiefs and as far as the Dolphins, I get back to the same thing I was talking about Dak earlier, which is Dak who's already had one big contract with Tua. They already they already exercised the option on him for the fifth year, so he's under contract for this coming year. You're gonna pay to By the way, after the game, first thing he does is as for Patrick Mahomes, Jersey, did that bother you a little too chipper? After that loss? That bothered a lot of people.

No, I didn't see that.

I didn't love that myself, quite frankly, But I just wonder if the Dolphins can make a long term commitment to that guy who clearly didn't seem like could throw the ball downfield in that game.

No, he couldn't. I mean, this was as it was completely one sided. I mean they struggled. They struggled, but the whole team struggled. That was I think what you brought up at the beginning, though it was important for people to keep in mind the Chiefs team. We talked a lot about them not being able to win by margin. Okay, they won by margin here, but like that margin should have been a whole lot.

More, whole lot more.

This team still settling for field goals when they should be scoring touchdowns.

I think that's the biggest thing I took away from Give the Dolphins defense some credit for that, as injury depleted as they were, so I just think, you know, from a Dolphins perspective, was it the fact that half of their defense was out? Was it the cold weather? Was the fact that they're just all that not that not all that good? And I get back to something we said all year long, and maybe this should have been the easiest handicap in the world, Kelly, What did I say all year long about the Cowboys and the Dolphins bullies and they get through the postseasons, someone their own size picked on them.

Yeah, picked right back to expect that the Packers.

To be bullied in that game. But no, not at all. The ultimate Bullies. The Dolphins at least have an injury excuse. Cowboys have no such excuse.

Numbers game on the Sports Betting Network.

If you're looking for a betting edge to the NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl, the Vison experts have got you covered. Become a Visent Pro subscriber today. Get access to our daily best bets with the leaderboard to see which Visa expert has the hot hand, betting supl's to show you where the money and bets are moving for every game, plus betting systems, premium analysis, and twenty four to seven video access. Sign up today and get your first thirty days for only nine to ninety nine to see everything that Vison has to up your betting game. Visit Visa dot com slash subscribe to sign up now. It's Skill Alexander. It's Kelly Bitlin live from bar Canada here at the d A couple of things. One, Kelly, did you see this? Did you see this ridiculous Tony dungeee Rod Woodson thing? No?

I actually did it.

I saw people tweeting about Dungee. I don't know what they're tweeting about.

Tony Dungee fears Taylor Swift is part of why NFL fans are quote disenchanted unquote.

First of all, like a, I'm so sick of these Taylor Swift comments. But Blake b what what are we disenchanted about it?

First of all, who thinks no one's watching the NFL? Like, who thinks people are that supposed to meet? Because I think he was told some report like young young people aren't watching the NFL? Is that? First of all? If anything, Taylor Swift is bringing in more people to watch the NFL than otherwise wouldn't dev Secondly, Rod Woodson said it's about gambling that people are like, Rod, my man, are you kidding me? Like if there was no such thing as gambling, gambling held up your league since the beginning of time? Like what are you what are you guys talking about? By the way, if there's if there were to ever be anybody disenchanted with the NFL, it's because it ain't like it used to be. It's the game itself. It's not about gambling or Taylor Swift. So that was the first time on what are these guys talking about? It's bizarre world.

It's so tired of these comments. I saw somebod tweet yesterday. I saw a great tweet yesterday was the picture of the EB and EB from the Lions game. The tweet was like, oh god, they cut the EB and AB again. Can we just get back to the football game and stop showing celebrities all the time in the box?

It's like it is, It's.

Exactly that, Like, come on, all right.

I gave guesses on almost all of the potential matches, but not all of them, and let's do them chronologically for next week. So Houston is in the early Saturday time slot because that is their birthright. I said, if it's at Kansas City, I said minus seven and a half. If it's at Baltimore, I said minus ten. That's going to depend on the Buffalo Steelers outcome today. Green Bay at San Francisco, which we know is locked in on Saturday night when it was fourteen to nothing yesterday, I guess San Francisco minus ten. That is, in fact what it is. Then I did bet the over on that game.

Oh what is it's fifty to fifty and a half fifty right here at CIRCA I bet it right right as it's got released. Yesterday, I guess the one surprising thing to note of this game is since it got posted last night, there's.

Been like no movement.

What none?

Because that's exactly what it ought to be. Ten. Yeah, San Francisco team total over become an auto bet for that game.

I really like that too.

Yeah, I mean I bet the over already. I think, yes, San Francisco team total over, isolating that probably Yes, I think that's probably a great call.

Yeah.

I opened with a small player on the over fifty because I wanted to see where that would move, because I think it's probably only going up.

But I think the bigger bet is probably.

Team total over because they score, man, no matter what the what the situation, they score. And like, I mean, green Bay, I'm sorry, I just don't think you're gonna be able to I mean.

I was so impressed with the offense yesterday.

That's that is the reason I bet the over in this game that I actually think green Bay might actually be able to score some points. But this San Francisco offense at home with a week off, it's a tall that is a tall task. It's gonna be a tall task to cover ten points. But I think that team total going over. Yeah, I'll be betting. By the way, how comical was the Packers for as great as they played? The Packers postgame locker room or Matt Lafleur one of the one of the hype speeches, one of the hype the parts of the hype speech he gave.

Was, we're the first seventh seed in the history of.

The NFL.

Seventh seeds just like started a second. Again, I didn't hear that. I thought that was a little much. But uh, this is again it's like it should go without saying. But apparently, like I've heard some people say things counter to this, which is the fact is there is no bigger advantage than not having to play this week, right, Yeah, the Ravens in the city. You can handicap all these other things all the way went the fact that you don't have to play a game this week. The fact that you get to play one less game, one fewer game than everybody else is the biggest advantage you could possibly have in anything. And the Niners here ten point fairs. And it doesn't mean hosting the Packers.

It doesn't necessarily mean you like you break it down so well every time, but like the when we have the seven game series in the NBA, right, and like the this is one game.

It's just one game.

And we talk about this a lot with Survivor, But it's like winning a super Bowl. You get in the tournament and you got to hit a parlay. Whether it's a three game or a four game parlay, you got to hit that. As a team to win a super Bowl, it is tough. So the biggest advantage you have is not having to play.

Not having to play, period, pontificate about anything else. And then Sunday morning, So the San Francisco, so the Green Bay San Francisco game a Saturday night. The home game for Detroit is going to be Sunday morning. They will host the winner of tonight's game between the Bucks and the Eagles. I guessed Detroit hosting Philly would be two and a half. I said hosting Tampa Bay would be six and a half. No, we haven't gone over the next one. I'm getting to the Detroit Tampa and Detroit Philly. Did we go over the Detroit options? Yeah, because you said I was a half point low on each of Oh yeah, okay, because you you apparently saw what those might be. So I am a half point low on those guesses again Detroit. I had two and a half hosting Philly in Detroit, six and a half against Tampa. Kelly tells me that would be three at.

Second drafts DraftKings have put it some theoretical theoreticals.

Yeah, okay, so this one we hadn't another the late options on Sunday, we haven't guessed which I will guess now, which is Pittsburgh at Baltimore or CAC at Buffalo are.

The only two other options.

So Pittsburgh get Baltimore or CAC at Buffalo, because remember Houston is locked into the early Saturday no matter who they play. So if Pittsburgh beats Buffalo, I would say Pittsburgh is a ten and a half point dog. Get Baltimore. I would add the hook to what is today's line, and if it's k C at Buffalo, Oh, Patrick mahomes first ever road a playoff game, is that was what that would be if Buffalo wins tonight or wins today. Pardon me, I said Buffalo minus two and a half in that game less than a field goal.

Yeah, obviously depends what we see today a little bit. But I know, I think I think you're dead on with those like I, you're pretty close to debt.

Yeah, I don't think these are that difficult to think Bill's you know, if it is Bill's under three, probably a bet for me, depending on what they look like today.

But how about the line? I think the one that sort of interests me is if the Eagles look good tonight, right, Yeah, and I happen to win that bet, right for those of us who have Philly win that And Philly looks not necessarily even dominant, but let's say they look solid in victory at Tampa Bay. The fact that the Lions would only my guess was two and a half. Kelly's telling me it'll be three. Let's say it's three. Does that feel like a lion's play to you? Then?

Absolutely?

Because that I think that That's why I kind of stopped before it was like, because yes, I wanted to talk about that lion's side.

Because with a lot of these teams, like again, in the moment, we feel like wow, CJ. Stroud and the Texans, uh wow boy, oh boy, Jordan Love and the Packers. You know, the come up ands can come pretty pretty suddenly and pretty abruptly. Next week. I'm not saying it will, but but it could very well be and no one will be surprised. So a lot of these teams have a level, and I just feel like this is kind of the level for a lot of teams like Philly, even if they're able to get by this week. It's so funny, Joe Pete even think you're making a great point on Philly.

Real Like, I think that if you asked oddsmakers to set what a Philly Detroit line would be right now before this game, before this game, Yeah, if Philly wins this game, and like you're saying, doesn't even look dominant, but if they look like they have a poll something we haven't seen basically in the past five weeks, I think that line moves a point and a half from whatever they would have said it before this game today.

That all makes sense.

Joe Peta is who's obviously frequent guest of this shows, joined us for all kinds of things, baseball in the past, golf, obviously survivor. He's a Philadelphia native, and he was he sent me something tongue in che kind of tongue in cheek yesterday, but not not necessarily tongue in cheek because he's a Philly fan. And he's like, Okay, Gil, this is after the the Cowboys got crushed. He says, in the aftermath of that glorious Dallas destruction, because that's the one thing Philly and DC fans have in commony, goes, I'm going to speak this into existence. He goes, Eagles win tonight in Tampa as a one point favorite. Then they win at home versus the Rams. Remember he thought the Rams thought. Then they win at home versus the Rams as a one point favorite. Then they're at home versus Green Bay is a one point favorite in the championship. He said, that's the that would be the Eagles path to being a favorite in every game. Obviously that didn't happen. The Eagles are a favorite here tonight, but after this they will not be. And so I do think, like projecting forward to those guesses and to what might be actual anticipating what game you would really like to pounce on, I think that might be it. And I'm not even that big of a Detroit fan, but I feel like that's the game where it all just goes to hell for the Eagles once and for all, in front of everybody.

Well, and the two big things there right would be the two or two of the big injury notes there right A J.

Brown. I'm not positive he's back in a week even, you know what I mean, like.

That, a knee injury like that, Who knows, I mean, who knows at this point how bad it really is, because they might be even covering up how bad it is at this point while they're still alive in the playoffs.

And then I mean, I got duped on Stan Laporta yesterday.

I went into the game with such great thoughts of like, Hey, this might be the Rob Gronkowski fake out, like late to see they plays and you can bet live under it. But then I saw him in the first two those first two plays, and.

I was like, they're they're they're pulling him on to make a blockab He's gotta be fine. I'm hitting this over live.

And then that diet is all countertrak jokers, counter they We'll come back a little talk about the Australian Open. We'll get back to football. On the other side, Tennis's first major going on. It's a numbers game in visa the Sports Betting Network