Beating The Book: 2023-24 Championship Sunday NFL MegaPod Betting Preview

Published Jan 24, 2024, 8:15 PM

Gill Alexander, Todd Wishnev (VSiN Contributor), Will Hill (VSiN Contributor), and ClevTa (@ClevTa on X) break down all of the Championship Sunday NFL betting action! It's the Kansas City Chiefs-Baltimore Ravens in the AFC and Detroit Lions-San Francisco 49ers in the NFC. The quartet gives you their best bets of the week.

Wednesday morning, January twenty fourth, twenty twenty four, It's the Beating the Book Podcast, Championship Week, Championship Sunday in the NFL Skill Alexander, thanks for listening, Thanks for joining for yet another mega pod last week.

Good week for everybody.

I think we'll get those we'll get those records from Todd here momentarily, speaking of which, the pillars of the show once again, Todd Wishnev from his mom's cork attic at t wish Nev on Twitter.

You doing, Dotty, Hey, what's up?

I listen?

I went back and listened because our guest, who I will announce here momentarily, he was like, Hey, what's the format for Championship weeked because obviously there's only two games, so we don't do our typical format. So I went back and I listened to our championship podcast last week, which I think was Phyasik and at that week, Yeah, last year, same show, right, and you were in the middle of the we to gain bounce back, so you had dropped all that weight and I think you were like sixty back upwards. And anyway, the answer to the question that I determined was we only we just talked about both games and we get some prop bets or whatever anybody's betting on. Will Hill is the other pillar of the show, the other standard bear. He's wearing his yellow Lakers Is it yellow as a gold? What do the Lakers call that color Lakers sweatshirt?

Oh, we'll go with gold championship gold, Gilly championship gold.

Chap.

Got a bunch of those.

Got a bunch of trophies banners hanging around all this place, so yeah, a bunch of them.

Will is hosting the Lombardi Line a little later on, so we got to get to it. Because this man has a heart out. We like call him biz a heart out our guest today. We love on the postseason to have some of our favorite guests during the regular season. He's kind enough to join us for a postseason appearance. One of the great Twitter football follows, there are maybe the best Cleave Ta c l e v t A on Twitter.

How you doing man?

Good?

Gil.

I appreciate you having me on. It's too kind. Definitely not the best. I can guarantee you that.

Oh you're up there.

That's very modest of you.

But you're here and you got Will Tawny me over here. I'm a Cavs fan. He's got his gold Lakers hoodie. You know, took my Lebron so if I had video on me, I put on my Calves hoodie.

But thing I don't was there.

Every year in the obviously not the year the Calves you know, Lebron two point oh came back and beat the Lakers from the three one deficit. But was there any of those first Lebron Calves teams that you legit thought had a shot at winning it.

I mean, anytime you have Lebron Lebron, especially when it was that young and just dominating and put it, you know, scoring like thirty in a row against the Pistons, you always had a shot. But it realistically, the supporting cast was so bad. I mean, if you're thinking back to some of those names, like Moe Williams was the best player he played with in the first stretch, It's just incredible.

How they even got to any NBA finals.

I mean he was playing with Drew Gooden and washed up Larry Hughes, like guys that you would never you know, it would never be considered kind of second you know, second.

Tier players or other star players around.

A guy like Lebron, so just for the fact that he brought them to the to the brank so many times in that first stretch was incredible.

Looking back on it.

I used I use those Lebron Cabs heres as sort of comparative thing when talking about like modern day sports. Whenever there's a situation in any sport where one team or one player dominates a week conference but then has to face right like somebody behemoth from the other conference, but just get there by benefit of having a you know, a strength of being in a weaker conference, I always sort of harken back to those Cabs.

Teams shots fired to Antoine Jamison and Jesu Junius Solgauskiz by the way, man that was this is harsh.

Hopefully I'll tell you we have a hard out, but we're doing ten minutes on Lebron James on the Cat series. What horble drop posting by.

Gilly Listen, you muff and as much as you've wasted time all year long for everybody, please stop it.

Stop it all right er.

That's Todd Todd getting restless that he's not part of the conversation.

Todd, why don't you jump in talk about tell us if you really want to.

Why don't you tell us what the records were last week and for the postseason here after again, and feel free to rehash the regular season records if you'd like to also.

And we just give Gilly his due. He had an amazing year. He had the greatest year of all time in the history of the megapod, thirty five, eighteen and one. Unbelievable. That will never happen again, though, I will tell you that. Now, let's get back to the regular the playoffs. Everybody posts and two. What would you say, as.

I said, you post what Gill's lifetime records? See, that's what I tell you, got to get them back.

Thirty five one.

Twelve, never t never hit a game before or that not one.

I mean, you have to give Cleeve. We have to give him his due for his great season. But we next year. Don't worry every week when he's losing him like, oh, what's not twenty twenty three anymore, Gilly? Is it? Anyways? Gilly went two and o last week with the Lions not getting the two point conversion, and we were all we were all thinking Toddy Bowles was going to go for the one. He didn't look like a two point conversion type of guy there. And please let's not discuss that anymore. If you don't know what it is, just go on Google. If you can't understand it, stop watching football and kill yourself thinks, No, go on, just.

Go on, just go on my feet. I did a whole thing on it yesterday.

Yeah, or that Willy went one and one with under and the Bills and the Lions also I went oho and two also to go two and two. So we're all two and two now. I had Under in both games, and the Lions game looked like it was going to get there didn't. And then the guest went two and two to I mean two and o to go four and o. So the guest is four and oh, the guest seat is four and oh. We're all two and two. But the teasers, I'm the only one who's two and oh. Everyone else is one in one. So I've continued my teaser dominance into the playoffs. By the way, if we're talking about regular season one, we talk about my thirteen and five and Willie's thirteen and five. On the teasers the more important category.

As much more important.

Yeah, So can I just say one, one other quick thing before we get into this. Dan Campbell, you know whatever, he's a good coach, he's not a good coach. Just if the guys knees down, how can you not challenge it? I have under ten and a half in the third quarter. Somehow I'm sweating it now because they're flying down the field. I'm like, the guy's knees shin is clearly down. You have to be able to challenge that. And the next play they get a touchdown before the third quarter ends, and somehow I lose. Now, can you please explain to me how in the world that can happen in the National Football League in the year twenty twenty four?

Okay, can I let me rank coaching blunders from Divisional week from four down to one, one being the worst, and then you'll let me know if you have trouble with my rankings. Number four Andy Reid not challenging Josh Allen's lateral early in that game between the Bills and the Chiefs. Number three Dan Campbell's body of work the play that you're referring to, which is when Baker Mayfield's leg was down, he didn't challenge it. Next played the Bucks score touchdown, but also throwing a pass north of the two minute warning which stop the clock and had the Bucks preserve a timeout, and then botching the kneel down so Dan Campbell with a trio to to fall in number three position. Number two Kyle Shanahan completely botching the end of the first half of the Niners game, where he apparently heard a stat at sixty five percent of the time, if you have the ball last in the first half, you win, failing to understand that you're supposed to optimize that possession before the end of the half, and then number one Todd Bowles telling Dan Campbell to hold my beer and not calling that time out at the you know, with thirty plus you know, it's like thirty five seconds left in that game, which would have forced a forty nine yard field goal attempt from Badgley. I don't think we're making enough of that. I think those are my rankings. TA you like those rankings or where you put them in a different order.

No, I like those. I got a couple couple thoughts.

I could add a couple more, you know, look at I didn't understand the whole Bowl situation at the end either. My guess is those guys kind of like wighed each other off and said, you know, hey, like we're not going to call time out because realistically Campbell could have just run out the clock, right, I mean, or it would have been like five seconds left.

No, I ain't done it the right way.

Yes, if they had done it the right way, yes, which they did not.

It's my guess.

But even so, like so what like the games that ship be damned to call the time out there at the end. Maybe maybe you, you know, you pull Dan Campbell into that. But I would say two things I would add to your list. I thought it was a good one. Andy Reid giving the ball to Micole Hardman at the one yard line for any reason at all, made no sense when he tumble in the end, Like just get that guy off the field in a high leverage spot like that, Like please just run the ball up the middle with Pacheco or even Clyde Edwards Hilaire and.

Then number two.

No one's even talking about it, but I'm not sure if it was which touchdown it was. I think it was the last touchdown the Kansas City had they scored, and then there was an off side on the extra point.

Andy Reid could have they could have gone for two.

From what the guard line, yes, and instead he just accepted the pat to go up three.

And I'm like, well, why wouldn't you try to go up four in.

That spot because you could have obviously forced Buffalo to score a touchdown. So that one goes And that's stuff like Andy Reid's kind of like Shanahan. As great as they are kind of designing plays and coaching, they just they continually make easy, easy decisions really difficult, So that one I would add to.

The list as well.

Those are great.

I mentioned that that last one from Andy Reid. I mentioned it on Guessing Lines on Monday. Did you have the same react and I did, which was, Oh, they're totally going forward here, they're at the one yard line. Of course you go for two here. And then when Reid trots out the the uh, you know, special teams to kick the extra point. I quickly toggle to it's Andy Reid. Of course he's going to do that. Like and the announcer same thing. They're like, well, Andy Reid decides this. Like at least they acknowledged that one, I think where they were like, oh, he didn't go for two he's still going to the kick in.

It was a real quick too.

You never even thought about it was funny.

That's right, that not even occur to him.

I agree with all that.

There is one thing though, it is subtly kind of better to be up three than to be up four, because at three, all right, we'll bring out the kicker, and the kicker misses.

At four, you're making your opponent more aggressive.

I don't think Andy Reid thought that part through, but there is a little bit of like, hey, sometimes you'd rather be up three than up four.

As crazy as it sounds.

That's a that's a great point.

Fees and I, Steve Fezek and I were talking about, you know, these these playoff overtime rules which have not come into play this year yet, these new these rules where again the new play postseason overtime rules, it's not for if if the first team that gets the ball gets a touchdown, the game is over. It's you know, the second team, the team that does not receive the kickoff to start overtime, gets a chance to match. So what you were just talking about there will We were just talking about, like what's the optimal strategy of overtime and how mind numbing it is because it's sort of counterintuitive to some of the regulation ones. So in overtime, the the optimal thing ought to be to receive the football. In other words, typically your brain would say, no, I want to kick it away so that I know what I have to do. But in overtime, because because there is no how can I put this, uh, there's there's no Right, it's like college, exactly similar. It's the third possition should exactly ta. So it's like, you receive it, and you should kick an extra point. You shouldn't go for two because if you miss the two, you're basically conceding the game if they score a touchdown, right, which is not how our brains usually go.

But it's not exactly like college because college is like innings. College is like innings here, it's like a first inning and then you're in the extra inning. It's almost like the ninth inning in the sense, right, But no, not that, not even that's not even right either, because you always get it. Everybody gets in it bad and extra innings here it's it's everybody gets in at bat, and then the second time nobody gets in at bat, So it's it's very weird.

It's just finishing, just finishing the thought though. No, that's exactly right, but the point being that it's counterintuitive to what we what we've learned to be true in the in regulation, right regulation, you should always defer, you should have the double dip, all this stuff, But in this new overtime scenario.

You should receive.

You should only kick the extra point if you score the touchdown, because you are a sently getting the sudden death if they match you like it's a I don't know, we haven't we haven't gotten there yet, so it's going to be a fascinating conversation if and whenever we do.

I will say there's probably a little bit of there's some variability with the circumstances where if it's bad weather, if you're a much more defensive team than offensive team, maybe a kick because you still win on the first field goal. But that's probably extreme conditions where hey, neither team is good on offense, this team is a good quarterback, it's wind, rain, snow, whatever, then you can at.

Least win with a field goal where you don't need the touchdown. But that's well, that's why this would triggered it. In my head because you said the thing about you know, the felt a field goal going up three changes the way that the other team then either consciously or subconsciously calls plays. Here's what will be interesting. On the first possession on a postseason overtime, if you end up with a fourth and four at the twenty, what do you do. Do you go for it to try to score a touchdown? Or do you settle for that field goal? With what you just said being in play? Will which is okay, Well at least we'll get the three and they'll play this differently now.

Right.

Yeah, it'll be uh, it'll be interesting to see that out see the announcers trying to dissect all this.

Coaches, it will be fantastic.

I wonder how much they're thinking about it talking about it.

Yeah, if you're Dan Campbell, you just go, well, four than four, here's what we do.

We came out here to win the game.

And I hear that if it's more than four, we just know for it. Because if you can't get four yours on four, then four you might as well not even try to win the game. And I'll tell you one other thing.

We can't where to win the game.

Did we just really announce that I want even dissecting that is Greg Olsen, that that's the only guy that at least would would would trust to be thorough and with a good response. The other guys, I don't think anybody else could even consider what to do and that spot.

I think you're right, Bucket Aikman won't won't even bring it up, like they just ignore stuff.

They're just like, we don't want to get into it.

I ain't Eagle would catch it. But in terms of play by play, guys, you're right.

You wondering whether we came here to win the game or to lose a game. We came here to win the game.

Just in case you are wondering.

Thank you.

Yeah, he's had a couple like back to the field after the half interviews with the sideline reporter.

We've just been just like that. We haven't made them punt yet.

All right, Dan, relax, Okay, any other thoughts on these games this past week? Ta anything from these games that you were surprised.

By before we get to the championship games.

No, just be honest, Like usually people say, oh, these lines are so tight and the postseason can't find value. I've actually found a lot of value. I've had a lot of success on sides and totals. I thought that the you know that the it didn't make any didn't make a ton of sense for the Chiefs to be getting a full three when when they were getting a three against Buffalo, especially considering the injuries and you know, the days off and all the sorts of things. And I just thought that there was there was real value last weekend, which is a surprise. This weekend's a little you know, a little tougher. But I thought these playoffs so far, you know, there's been there's been good value generally from a from a betting perspective.

What did you have last week? Did you have a play in all four games? Yeah?

Of course, I mean who couldn't I had, uh, I had I had the Ray although I did have the Ravens first half, which got.

That's what I had. That's funny. I didn't know that you had that. We had the same thing.

Yeah, I had the full game, I had the half, and then I had the Packers in the night game, and then I had Bucks Lions over. I had some Baker Mayfield props over uh, and then I had the Chiefs in the in the last game, although I did have the under as well for a little bit, so that you know, that didn't look good. But generally I think the games flowed kind of how I thought, and I think how you know, many predicted so which again last year I was terrible in the playoffs, so you never know. But this year I just feel like there's just more value I think generally.

All right, well, let's start with the first game. Uh and again, if you don't have a play, you don't have a play. This is not the standard megapot format. But if you do have a play, let's hear it. Any prop bets as well. On the Ravens and the Chiefs. The AFC game is first again three pm Eastern twelve noon Pacific. Once you get that time slot going, you know, the season's almost over. The Ravens, as we do this Wednesday morning, are consensus three and a half point favorites, but this is starting to teeter to four in some spots. Here, Ta, we start with you your thoughts on this game.

Yeah, So after I, you know, ramble about there being value, this is a game I don't think there's value right now, at least from a side perspective.

I think it's priced right.

And honestly, when you step back and you think about, like if you put a blindfold on, if you didn't know who the quarterbacks were here, and you just looked at the season on data and you toss them and whatever model you have or you know, a power rating, you would never get to three and a half. I mean, this would be probably closer to six six.

And a half, I think. But of course, you know.

It's Patrick Mahomes and you know it's Andy Reid, and they've got the prior in the pedigree, and so you toss that premium onto those guys and you get to three and a half. And so it's this kind of pull in, this kind of tug of war of do I go with my pure numbers, the pure ratings of these teams, or do I go with the fact that my god, I'm getting Patrick Mahomes at over a field goal and how often does that happen? And it's hard, and I haven't figured out what I want to do if I'm going to do anything in that regard. I think this is a great chess match between I would call the two best defensive coordinators right now in Steve Spagnola and Mike McDonald. In terms of if I have I could pick one defensive coach to have for one game, these are the two I would pick. And so I think it's a really interesting chess match from that perspective. I think, you know, you almost have to toss out what you saw in the regular season in terms of schemes and those sorts of things, because I think they're going to play it completely well. It may not be different, but it's not necessarily you know, I think they're going to mix it up.

I'll put it that way.

And Mike McDonald has done a good job of mixing coverages up. You know, you look at some of these numbers. Typically these teams have one or two coverages that they plan a really high rate, and everything else kind of scattered. He's kind of even keeled along multiple coverage schemes, so he's very well diverse. I think he's going to do a good job of shutting down Travis Kelcey with KYLEO. Hamilton, And you know, Kyle Hamilton's really a big chest peach piece on defense.

And I think the other side of the ball, Steve Steve.

Spagnola, I would guess is going to blitz the hell out of Lamar Jackson. We saw Demiko Ryans do that a lot in the first half last week. Is actually the highest rate that he used blitzes all season, which again what I was talking about.

When you get to the.

Postseason, these coaches really mix things up. They game plan specifically for these teams a lot more than they do in a regular season. So it does make make a little bit more difficult to predict exactly how things are going to flow. But I would guess that Spagnola he likes to blitz throw some exotics there, and I think Lamar, you know, against cover zero, which Spagnola has been known to do so a decent rate. He's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL from an EPA perspective, and so I guess they.

Do a lot more of that. And so how do these quarterbacks handle.

Those I would you know, obviously have Mahomes a little bit higher in terms of being able to dissect what the defenses are going to toss it his way, but he just doesn't have the skill guys, and I'm not sure that you know, those guys outside are going to be able to separate And the fact that Kelsey could be locked down by Kyle Hamilton.

Makes it hard.

So all of that being said, this is a really typical handicap for me.

I would lean under.

But again, and when you've got these two great quarterbacks, it's tough to take under forty four and a half with you know, two potential Hall of Fame level quarterbacks here, So that makes things a little bit more difficult.

But I think one prop.

That I do like that I have bet already and I think it's still available.

I do like.

Mahomes over his rush yards. I think it was twenty five and a half is the last I saw. I think it's good, kind of the twenty seven and a half. You know, he kind of liked Josh Allen where they they turn up the rushing in high leverage spots. He historically has averaged more than twenty seven yards rushing in the postseason compared to just twenty in the regular season. He's actually had his highest yardage per game season this year, a little over twenty four. But this comes down to as his aggressive Ravens defense. They play a lot of Manda Man that always leads to more rushing lanes. When Mahomes has faced the Chargers and the Dolphins are probably the closest comp from a Manda Man kind of scheme perspective that he's faced this year, and he's rushed for twenty four twenty nine forty one yards in those games. The Ravens have allowed the quarterbacks that they face that they've only faced two other quarterbacks that are top twenty in rush yards per game, if you can believe that they haven't face quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert, who you know, they run, but they're not like great scramblers. And those guys ran for forty one and forty seven yards on the Ravens, So you can run the ball on this defense.

I think with the.

Aggressiveness, well, he's gonna have to make plays because I'm not sure his receivers can. So I do like that over on on his rushing yards. But as of now, I don't have a play on the side or total. I just think it's a could be a really good chess match, and I think it's gonna be a really tight game.

Yeah, I don't have a play on the side or to you are you know? I had Aaron Shots from FTN Sports, the creator of DVOA on the on the radio side this morning, he said a couple of similar things. He thinks that it should be a six or seven point spread as well, and he also pointed out again your last point there about the Chiefs receivers. Are you going to bet on the Chiefs receivers coming through in a second consecutive week?

Uh? Dodd?

Anything on this game from you can't hear you, Todd? Start again. We can't hear your Mike, and y'all hear Todd. I can't hear Todd.

Now he looks like he's bitching him on about some bad beating college basketball anything.

There we go, We got you, now, go ahead.

I don't know what that was. Anyways, I kind of lean to the Ravens because what has Kansas City shown us this year? They're not as good on offense. Now, granted they still have Mahomes, they still have Andy Reid. Who did they beat in the playoffs for us to all of a sudden change our opinion that Kansas City is really the old Kansas City. They beat the Miami Dolphins defense whose coach has capri pants on. Forget about it. I don't care about that. And then and now the next week, you play a team called the Bills, but it was the Bills in name only. The defense was a bunch of guys off the street who were just down at the local bar tending bar. Because literally anyone could have moved the ball on that Bill's team. That Bill's defense was so atrocious at this point. You know, usually I'm not one to get all crazed about the injuries because a lot of the you know, the pundits, get up on their high horse, Oh this guy's out, this guy, But tell me, is the second stringer, you know, five times worse than the first stringer, or is he one times worse the first stringer? Or what percentage of the first stringer is he? Actually they never talk about that, do you. If you ever notice that it's like week nine in the NFL and he has been like, oh, well the defensive back is out. Yeah, well is his backup ninety percent as good as him or forty percent as good as him? Maybe let's discuss that if you really want to talk about injuries. However, when there is cluster injuries, sooner or later, you're just picking up guys off the street that you've picked up outside the stadium. And that's what it looked like last week to me. With with the Buffalo defense. Remember Mason Rudolph moved the ball on the Buffalo Bills defense the week before. If you guys remember he was inside the fight. They got seventy points cause I had twenty four points. That's not a great offense. And now Kansas City with Andy Reid and Mahomes. Andy Reid can always cook up some amazing offensive schemes. Don't get me wrong. He's an offensive genius, and it is Mahomes. But all season we watched those guys drop the ball. And now you're going against a legitimate defense. The Baltimore Rave ain't playing me and you, Gilly watched that Raiders game.

We're just gonna bring this up. I was just gonna bring this up.

The goddamn ball five hundred times. There's no one to throw to. You're telling me. John Harbaugh's not watching that tape. He's watching that tape. So you know enough about all the Kansas City nonsense. If anything, it's Ravens or nothing for me.

I was just gonna bring that game up. Todd was here in Vegas.

We were watching the Raiders Chiefs game at Caesar's And that was the game where the Raiders, right like O'Connell didn't complete a pass.

After the first quarter and the Raiders still won.

And the Raiders without blitzing, like you know, put an enormous amount of pressure on Mahomes, and when that they didn't, what Todd was describing was exactly the case when Mahomes would just sit there pat the football a million times, nobody got open. So I just I was gonna bring up Todd. I was gonna say, imagine going back to that day and somebody saying to us, you see this Chiefs team that you guys are hating on so bad, Yeah, they're gonna be a doorstep away for the Super Bowl. I just hope you know that. Like, what would your reaction have been in that moment? You'd been like, there's no fucking way, But here they get the.

Pre pants and the guy off the street playing defense in the first two rounds, you can get there.

Well, yeah, Willie, I like the Chiefs plus three and a half.

I agree the Ravens are better in this line. If you're just going based on the season, should probably hire Mahomes. We talked about Lebron in the beginning. Mahomes there's a Lebron quality where you know, he drags these Cavs teams to the finals. He takes these Lakers teams from the plane. Lebron takes it up a level where you can't it's not really in the numbers. I think there's a little bit of that with Mahomes, where there's another level. There's another level to Andy Reid's play calling where I know a lot of the film guys say, hey, he seems the good plays for the postseason. I'm surprised we're getting the hook at three. It would be a pass at three and a half. I'll take Kansas City here, though, should be a tight game.

I wish I had thought about that Lebron comparison right there. You had compared to Mahomes to Michael Jordan before as well.

Oh, he's just the best. I mean, you can't underrate him.

I know it's not a profound take to come on here to all Patrick Mahomes is good.

Is there anybody better than him?

Nobody's ever going to catch Brady and Rings, but I mean he moves better than Brady. He's just I mean, think about this. This is his sixth season in the league. He's played in the title game every year in overtime. It's only two times he's lost. He's a player two away from being in like five six straight Super Bowls. It's incredible. Here's and you know, it's a minus a million degrees against Miami. Tua can't throw the ball seven yards. Mahomes doesn't bother him. They could have easily put up forward. He's just he's so good. It's it's just hard to bet against him, it really is. I think he's five and zero as an underdog of three or more. I don't usually love those trends, but it makes sense. I mean, you're giving me Mahomes and Andy Reid and points.

I'm gonna take them.

Six straight AFC championships. Someone was saying, only the Astros making seven straight alcs's is in that whole universe.

All the time in postseason wins.

What's that sagaing Will?

I think he's seventh already all time in postseason wins. It's like his six it's his sixth year in the league.

It's just it's incredible.

You said something a few weeks ago that I that I thought was interesting, and I was like, that's an interesting Let me see if I even agree with that.

I guess I kind of do.

Which was you think the difference between Patrick Mahomes and the next best player is a wider gap than you ever remember the best player in the league being to the second best player.

Yes, Brady had Manning. Manning was at least as equal in the regular season. Manning, I think made seven First team All pros. Manning was a lot of ways a better regular season quarterback than Brady.

I'm just thinking that's not a crazy statement. It was a fair comparison.

It really was crazy. But Tom Brady was better than Peyton Manning, but good in the moment.

Brady always had a top ten defense in Belichick and a kicker that never missed. It was at least a fair argument. In the nineties, it was far young Montana. There was never really a clear cut guy lway and the last few years it's just it's been Mahomes, Like the gap between Mahomes and I don't know who the second best guy is Alan Lamar. It's just it's really not a conversation for me.

Who was the second best player last year? I'm trying to think was a.

I just mean an era. I don't mean year, I just era.

Yeah, yeah, all right.

I don't have much to add to this. I don't have a play on this yet. I'm gonna well, I better bet Baltimore. If I want to bet Baltimore, I better bet him now. I don't know, maybe even buy him down to the three if it's still three and a half here. So I just think again, I was the guy last week who was saying, Wow, I don't want to be that guy on Monday morning who bet against Patrick Mahomes. And we actually do the thing on the show where Kelly had to like spend thirty seconds saying what an idiot he was for betting against Patrick Mahomes.

And so I didn't.

I bet on Mahomes last week, plus the points that worked out great. I actually took him on the money line too, that worked out great. And now here I am one week later, and I'm gonna be that dude going against Patrick Mahomes. But I do think this is I do think it's Baltimore's year.

I've said this before. It feels like.

Those days of the eighties when pick your you know, Dynasty Ish Team San Francisco, Dallas, Washington, the Bears when they were great. The Giants, it just feels like it was certain teams years and it just feels like it's the Ravens Niners year to me, and I think the Ravens get it done on their home field. I've been sort of close ish to that team in a way because I know my guy on the practice squad, Owen Wright, and so I've sort of followed the day to day and he lets me know like what kind of coach Harball is and it's been fascinating to see from his perspective. By the way, my little buddy gets a super Bowl ring off the practice squad if they win it all, which is a sort of tickles us if that happens. But uh, I think it's them. I think they're I think the more complete football team. I do think the Patrick Mahomes, you know, Superman Cape can only get them as far as this in this particular case. And I think, by the way, do we have him Mark Andrews' status? Is he going to play in this?

Do we know yet?

I don't think for sure.

We don't know for sure.

Yeah, it sounds like you will. I saw I saw something this morning that he should be able to play.

I mean, I could just see materal holifactive. Well yeah, but I.

Whatever from that tight end position, whether it's likely or Andrews. I mean, I just think they're just going to dominate and that Chiefs defense has not been as good down.

The stretch as it was earlier in the year. So I love the Ravens.

I'll probably have a play, but in full disclosure, I don't have one right at this moment, but I think I'll make that play.

I have the Ravens plus two in pocket from when it opened. Do you now in pocket? You just want to say in pocket. I'm the only one in the world who has it in pocket.

In pocket all those phrases like in pocket where you actually carry it in your pocket or you rip up your ear.

It was installed, really, it was installed as a plus two. Yeah, and I was able to knock it all the way to three and a half with my bet that I made in pocket.

Yeah, listen, you can't. You can't make a bet unless it's installed beforehand. Correct.

Well, the key thing is I did it out of my building, out of my running backs room. That's where I do think. In my building, out of my running backs.

Room, nothing a noise, Todd. More than the use of the word room in situations. You got the wide receiver's room, Todd. You ever been in one of those?

Oh, we've got the best. By the way, speaking of which is a great story about Iowa. They put the Iowa Gambling Enforcement people put a thing around that. You should look it up. It's crazy, crazy story of you know what. Anyways, by the way, we weren't a heart out.

Hey did did Tyreek Hill actually file for a divorce? I guess he did? Anyway, after seventy days of marriage and a house burning?

They look so happy together on hard knocks, Yeah.

They did, kind of, I guess. Yeah.

Well, you made a lot of competition though that way.

What do you say, Todd, I'm sorry.

Cleve made a great point about he was talking about Shanahan and everyone's talking about Shannhan. You remember the Super Bowl right before the pandemic. He did the same thing at the end of the first half in that Super Bowl, if you remember, he did not take advantage of that drive. And then they actually got along pass. I can't remember exactly what happened, but I remember thinking, what an idiot, And I think he has a little bit of his daddy's I'm a little scared. I'm a little scared. And I'm a little too, you know, with Parcels, with Belichick, with all these like great, great coaches, they have that killer instinct to go for it when they need to go for it. And to me, I feel like he's a great coach. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying anything that he's a bad coach. I'm saying he has that fear thing I think just a little.

Now.

Of course he's got purty, so he's a little afraid because he's got purty. But my point is he just feels a little scared in a big, big moment.

Is that your recollection of Mike Shanahan.

You don't remember from the Super Bowl? Oh oh, you're talking about Mike Shannan. Yeah, I remember Mike Shanahan being being a little bit scared.

Also before Shanahan, I believe Shannan is the worst against the spread record ever as a favorite. I had Stucky from Action Network on my podcast last week and he cited that stat. And I'll just add to Todd's point, fourth and one against the Rams two title games ago two years ago, he punched and swung that game, and then last year Devonte Smith the catch non catch that.

He is not good in these spots.

So just one last point before is and I brought this up I think at one point during this year, by the way, can I just say the greatest megapod here ever? Like every guest has been spectacular. I brought this up about our recollection of those old coaches, whether it's Parcels, whether it's Walsh, whether it's Gibbs, you name your coach, do we just remember them pristinely? Like like, is it or is it just the fact that we're smarter now and we weren't as smart then as a football you know, audience, maybe maybe Bill Parcells was a pussy, you know, like he was pretty aggressive.

But I think he was pretty aggressive.

Okay, he shortened games like I remember that about him when he in hospital.

He was a go for a guy.

Talked about how he was one of the guys that was ahead of his time.

He was a go for a guy.

He was a go for it guy.

Yards were harder to come by back then, so you weren't you couldn't be as aggressive on fourth down.

I'm sorry.

I remember Mike Shanahan having a little bit of a sphincter issue from time to time, and his son has that same sphincterism, which is, oh.

Oh you know, I remember.

I remember they used to list it in the injury report, Todd Mike Shanahan and then in parentheses sphincter.

I remember the question questionable sphincter.

Ta were you trying to say something to all that?

I'm sorry what I'm just gonna say along the lines of Shanahan, I mean McVeagh, You've talked about it.

McVeigh is the same way.

It's like these offensive geniuses that just they can't marry being such great play designers with actual optimal strategy. I mean, I bade the comment last week we ripped on Todd Bowles, but they actually Tampa had the ball in their own like ten yard line at the end of the half. They went down the field and scored. You remember, And I made a joke.

I'm like, this is exactly what sh what McVeigh.

Passed up the prior week against Detroit when he was such a sat on the ball and that cost him the game. It's like these guys are so close, like man, if they and Shanahan, you know, had the Dan Campbell or Kevin Stefanski type of you know mentality when it when it comes to going for it and you know, positive TV decisions, like they would be unstoppable, but for whatever reason, they leave that little hole in their in their game plan and it screws them.

It's Todd's theory. They just don't watch as much football as we do.

Like absolutely, yeah, that's true.

And it's ironic because they're such good offensive coaches. It's like a pitcher that throws one hundred and two miles an hour that's afraid to throw his fastball.

It's really strange.

But imagine that Shanahan thing and I won't believor we'll go to the next game. But the Shanahan thing is particularly interesting because you bought into the analytics of sixty five percent of teams who have the ball last in the first half win games. But you're so shortsighted upon buying into that that you didn't make You didn't make the leap to Oh part of that status or the main part of that stat is it's because of the double dip, Like he just didn't He's.

Like, Okay, if I just hold the ball, make sixty bar persent of the time. But no, let me just finish the bruh.

You gotta kick the field goaler then get the touchdown. I mean, I mean you got to You gotta try to score a touchdown, not settle for a forty nine yard or that gets blocked or whatever it was. I don't know if it's a fear thing in this case because he took the clock down from one thirty four to forty four before.

Running a play.

That is malpractice, dude, that you're not at your own twenty, you're at your plus forty doing that plus forty.

I understand. I'm just saying there are guys that want to take the big shot.

I don't think.

I genuinely believe, but I genuinely believe. While there might be some fear in there Todd, I also think he was just like.

I can't give them the ball what I do.

But that's the fear.

No, I think No, I think they're two. I think they're two separate things. There's the fear of my personnel, like I don't know if I could trust brock prity or whatever it is. But then there's also the I just can't let them have a chance to the point that it completely scrambled his brain, is what I'm getting at.

Okay, I just think I just think he has a certain there's certain guys you can look at, and a guy like Belichick. You know, Belichick went out there on fourth and two at his own twenty eight yes against against Peyton Manning, would before anybody even would consider doing that, which, by the way, at the time, as he's doing the play, I said, this is a great move because you know the way Peyton Manning was moving the ball in that game. You had to do it because he's going to be right back there anyways. But that kind of big ballardness, that's wins. You need the big ballardness to make the the absolute like really really challenging decision and going hard smart. I'm not saying you'd be crazy, like for me, Dan Campbell's a little bit too fard. He's got his balls are like maybe ten pounds too much. But my point is you got to have that, and I feel like Shanahan just doesn't. He just doesn't have it.

I see that with Cam and then the parentheses after camp it says big balladness questionable. Yeah, Okay, game two nine or seven point favorites hosting the Detroit Lions Lions in the first NFC Championship game in thirty years when the Skins destroyed them at RFK. One of us was there.

Who's the Skins I got?

I think I'm I haven't played this yet, So I apologize again because I've been more decisive about every other week and I've had bets. But excuse me, the Australian Open has going on, so I didn't make these bets yet for football.

But I think I'm gonna lay the points.

I mean, no rush here because I am waiting for and I don't know if I'm gonna get this till game time, so I might just be waiting for no reason.

But I don't know about Debo.

And the big thing about Deebo here is, boy do they fall off a cliff when he's unable to play. And it's the best explanation I've heard is that he is not just one football player.

He's like three football players.

In one the things that they ask him to do, and that's evident. And something about the Niners and maybe the rain is brock Perdy's kryptonite too, because he didn't he obviously was wiping his hand off mid play last week. Maybe it's a combination of things, it's never one thing, but man are they for for being such an elite offense. They get so diminished when one of their guys are out, whether it's Debo, whether it's Kittle, whether it's a Uk, whether it's McCaffrey. So I worry about that.

Push back on that when I go by the way to go.

No, I'm sorry saying it.

Push back on that notion when I oh, okay, good, I'm glad no, because I I don't want that to be the case, because I have Niners to beat either of these teams exact as in the super Bowl. So I hope, I hope yours is the right take on this. So anyway, I'm laying the points. I'm waiting to see if it goes below seven. But I think the Niners bounce back. I do think that the rain did something to them. Obviously, Debo being out. I'm I'm not diminishing that. I'm hoping Cleve will make me feel more comfortable with it even if you can't go. But I don't think the Lions de defense can stop this team. The Niners defense has looked pretty bad too, by the way, and I think the Lions will try to run a lot of Montgomery and a lot of Jamiir Gibbs here. But ultimately I think this is the Niners year. I think it's the Ravens year, and we're going to have the matchup that should be in the super Bowl, and I'm gonna lay the points in both games. Willie, what about this one?

My favorite play here? I'd love to bet again San Francisco. I just hated what, like we said, what Shanahan did last week. I wasn't impressed. Like I'm a huge party fan. I thought he's stunk last week.

And I think their defense is completely overrated.

That being said, this is a Lions team that gave up seven point seven yards per played at the Rams, almost seven yards per play to.

The Bucks that was that home that was in Detroit in the Dome.

Now you're going to put them outside, away from their home, without the crowd noise, against a better offense against you say, well, we want about Channing and he's good at scheming up offense. Forty nine ers team total over twenty eight and a half. It burned me last week, even though Drake Greenlaw, thank you Dre, you tried to cover that team total over, I would think I would think that San Francis will get to the thirties here. If I had to take it or lay it, I guess I would take it just because of a backdoor. But man, I really worry about this to try. I just don't think you can be this bad on defense and get to a super Bowl. So I'll go forty Niners. Team total over is my favorite play here.

We were talking about this on the show this morning, about that that last play for those of us who had the uh who just needed the Niners to advance. Oh my god, Drake green Law, that that moment where like the fans hand came up and you couldn't see Drake Greenlaw for a minute, and I'm like, I found myself looking around the hand to see where he was.

And the next thing he emerges and he's running across across the field. What are you doing? Get down, your bastard. Thank god he did for those to go ahead.

Cleve go ahead had plus ten green Bay plus ten. That would have pushed I was gonna.

I was gonna. I was about to throw my remote to the TV.

I was like, why are you running, just go down, go down.

These guys to fumble in a spot like that where they.

Try to be happened the Chargers Chargetheimer? Its Patriots? The Patriots.

Yeah, oh wow, good memory, Dodd.

I was just quickly. Cousin Sal said this on Bill Simmons podcast. What if somebody on the forty nine Ers team coach tackled his own player? What's the rule on that? Like, you can't give the ball back to Green Bay? Right, it's just a penalty. So would that be like a viable strategy.

I don't know what the rule.

I don't even know if that's a penalty. That's not a penalty is Yeah?

Just Cower. Bill Cower almost tackled a guy on a block put on a blocked field goal down the sideline one time, and there was a.

Whole sportsman like conduct, right because if they even you know, off on the field.

But yeah, that's fine, right Tom.

Like try to trip a guy, remember it was a Thanksgiving night game against Baltimore.

Yes, if you come off the sideline, of course it's a penalty. I thought you met one of his teammates on the field. Yeah, okay, Todd, will you.

Want to bounce by the way I got a few minutes. Okay, DoD go ahead.

I like what Willy has to say about this game. Also, I think the lines defense is horrendous. I think the forty nine Ers defense is also horrendous. And I just want to make one quick point about gambling in general. In gambling, I never ever feel like if you've got one team and I've got the other team, you can root your team. I can root my team. I'd never get upset with anybody else for rooting their team or rooting my team. But I want to say that I'm such a great guy and I want to toot my own horn for how amazing a guy I am, because I had the Packers plus four and a half in the fourth order last week. But I know Gilly has so much on the forty nine Ers, and I you know, in general, I just say, look, it's gambling. You have to root for your team. I root for my team, and nobody has it, you know, no hard feelings, right, But I felt so bad for Port Gilly, who was going to lose that game. But by the way, the Packers should have won a million times. The half gave away a million opportunities. And I'm like, oh my god, I hope Gilly survives. So it's one of the first times ever that I've actually rooted against my own bet because I was felt bad for Gilly. But anyway, yeah, and that's what called being a good person is.

Now what being a job?

Yeah? Thank you, thank you.

Will.

I've got to teach the people now what being a bad person is is when the Bills kicker misses the field goal, you don't send him death threats America, What the hell is wrong with you? You it's a football game if you're that guy who sends death By the way, I've lost thousands of dollars on these idiots. Okay, if anyone should be death threading anyone, it should be me death threating kickers. Okay, And I don't death threat kickers as any sane person should be. We are living in a country where people death threat the kicker. It is disgusting. Okay.

Anyway, even he made the kick.

I don't think death but I don't think death threat is a verb. But okay, got what you meant.

Okay, But anyways, my point, I just had to get that off my jae because I just think, what country are we living in where you death threat the kicker. It's insanity. But anyways, Uh, with that being said, I'll take over if I have to bet this game. I believe it's what fifty one for the over in this game. I you know, I'm with Willy here. I think both teams are good offenses. Both teams are bad defenses. The forty nine Ers are very suspect on defense. I mean we keep saying when are they going to turn it on? I mean the Arizona Cardinals go down in the field on these guys. Last week against the Pack, it was a joke on defense. I mean, Aaron Jones is running for miles. So I don't see why the Lions can't move the ball. And as as Willy just said, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers moved the ball all over the Lions. And they're not the only one. The Chargers scored thirty eight on him. If we remember correctly, there's a many games where the Lions just did not show up on defense. So I would not be surprised if we saw a lot of points. Also, desperation could set in people going forward on fourth down down fourteen at their own twenty five yard line. That could lead to extra points like in the Cowboys game. So there's a lot of reasons why this game could get out of control.

So I'll go over just to clarify.

I have Niners to beat the Ravens at twelve to one, Niners to beat the Chiefs at eleven to one, and Ravens to beat the Niners in the Super Bowl at five to one, which clearly means the Chiefs will beat the Niners in the Super Bowl, so that I don't win, ta, what were you gonna say?

I want to hear this, so well, first, I'm gonna steal Todd's line.

I've got Niners minus six and.

A half in pocket already, so that was the first bet on the bet I made in the morning.

So which but I still left your seven left front back.

Honestly, the my model, I have a matchup model that doesn't care about ratings or anything like that, and I have this closer to ten if you can believe that, and I'll go I'll run through it. But yeah, you guys talk about that the Niners defense is over eight and not that good? All right, maybe, but what the what is the Jared golf and the Lions bread and butter on offense? They go inside out. They attack the middle of the field more than any other team in the NFL. Their top five golf is top five, and pass attempts in EPA per pass over the middle of the field.

And you know it makes sense.

You you know, he doesn't have the strongest arment world and Ben Johnson is a really good play designer. But who's number one in the NFL defending the middle of the field by EPA.

It's the San Francisco forty nine ers, okay.

And why they've got Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner rolling the middle of the field. They do a great job of shutting things down. So I'm not sure the Lions are gonna be able. I'm not sure Jared Goff has it in him to do anything else. They've faced three other teams four games that ranked top ten in defending the middle of the field, the Bears twice, the Ravens and the Falcons.

Okay, the Bears twice.

That Jared Goff had two of his worst games in the all season against the Chicago team they probably should have lost twice. The Ravens completely decimated this team, and even against Atlanta he was very pedestrian. They only scored twenty points on offense. He had a negative EPA against those teams under forty three percent success rate, five point nine yards per attempt, three touchdowns, six interceptions. Okay, and now you're going to do it without Jonah Jackson at guard. Frank Ragnow is beat up against a really good passer. I don't worry about last week as much. You know, when it's rainy, it's tougher for a pass rush to get their bearings and to rush the quarterback, so not as big of an issue. And Jordan Love is really good at getting the ball out, so it's a little different situation. I just think that San Franciso is going to completely choke the life out of this offense from what they like to do. And we've seen, you know, different examples of teams doing that to Detroit and Jared.

Goff the other side of the ball.

As you guys all mentioned, I mean, this Lion's defense stinks. They're dead last in the last five weeks in yards per play allowed, almost seven yards per play allowed in the last five games and includes two games against Nick Mullins and one against Baker Mayfield. They're getting lucky they're doing I mean I guess it's luck, and maybe they're doing a good job of Once teams are getting the red zone, they're holding them the field goals, they're turning the ball over. Just a lot of a lot of things happen once they get into the lion's territory. That is saving them from allowing you know, thirty plus points. I mean, based on yards per play, they really should have allowed more like thirty four points per game in this stretch and they're only allowing twenty two. So I think some of that will regress against a really good Niners offense.

And you talked about Deebo Samuel. So here's the thing.

When people talk about, oh, this team falls off a cliff without Debo, you have to remember this year, most of that has also occurred with Trent Williams off the field too. He got hurt the same exact game against the Browns that Debo did, so he missed the same stretch. So it's a little bit murky when you use some of these numbers when Deebo hasn't played, because it also includes to me, the most maybe the most valuable player outside of Christian McCaffrey on that team in Trent Williams. When if you look at the numbers when Deebo, Samuel and Trent Williams both missed miss time, their EPA per play falls off a cliff to essentially twenty fifth ranked offense. When you look at their numbers, it's a negative zero point oh eight twenty seven.

Let me just interrupt you for one second, because Will's got to go Will real quick. If one of the favorites lose, which one will it be San Francisco or Baltimore?

If one of them does.

Lose, the team that's playing Mahomes, the.

Team that's playing Mahomes. Okay, I got that one. I think that's Baltimore. And then yeah, that's it. Thanks very much. You're gone.

All right, we'll entertain the nation. No big deal. See you guys.

You have to make a taser. If you had to make a teaser, what would it be?

The forty nine Ers and the Chiefs?

Obviously forty nine Chiefs. Bye, will, thank you, Will Hill, everybody.

See you guys.

Well, can we just ask Cleve? I like what Cleve said, but can you what about the fact that the Green Bay Packers let him finish his rant?

And then you can ask him this question, go ahead.

So real quick.

So the numbers with Debo when he doesn't play, but Trent Williams does play, they're actually equivalent to the second best offense in the NFL.

Their EPA is outstanding zero point one five. So it's not Debo.

It's the combination the Debo and Trent Williams that makes people think that the offense falls off a cliff.

So that's very important.

When you go back to last year, he missed four games. They scored thirty one, twenty one, thirty seven, thirty seven in those four games. So I'm not worried about that. Yeah, great to have them, but don't don't worry about that. From this perspective, they have plenty of weapons and I think they'll be fine on offense.

That was really my rant.

I was just going to say, like, I mean a lot of this when Debo is not playing, this offense is horrible, and you know, citing games that he'd missed, but you didn't have Trent Williams. Also, it's a big deal, So I just wanted to make sure they say that. So I just think that this game could be a blowout. I actually think that I'm going to take some alts here on San Francisco, Like, why is this going to be that much different than the Ravens game against Detroit it was thirty eight to six, Like, what's what's that different about these these this situation? How I mean Detroit had not played an outdoor game in like two months like that. I know it's the weather supposed to be fine, but it's a totally different situation when you're in that fast track in the dome versus the grass of San Francisco.

Like we've just seen too many times.

And the last time they played outdoors was in Chicago and they got blown out, Like they've been blown out multiple times outdoors.

It's a big deal.

And when you've had a defense that just suffocates you over the middle of the field, the exact thing that golf in this offense, that's the only thing they really can do in the past game is over the middle of the field.

Like, once that's gone, where do they go to?

They're just going to run the ball If they fall behind early, this is going to be a blowout. So I'm going to look at some alts on for the Niners as well.

So you got me fired up, You got me fired up?

The Niners had their scare you know, usually these great teams, you know, you have your scare game and then everyone gets gets, hey, wait a second, we almost lost it. We should have lost that game. It's time to buckle down. So I agree with what Cleve's saying.

Cleve kept pull and say that that part about the interior d is such a big point that that's the really the Niner strength.

I'm sorry, Todd, go ahead.

Are you concerned? Cleve? The only thing that concerns me because I kind of agree with you that I think this is the week that the Niners, you know, they they should have lost. Now they come out and they just blow the doors off them for all the reasons that you just said. Are you The only thing that would concern me is the fact that the Packers handed the ball to people and they just ran through gaping holes. Does the run game scare you? The fact that they didn't really shut that down?

Yeah, I mean, look, they're not they're not perfect on defense, and they're going to allow some things. But that's that's the whole point. If if if San Francisco can get up early, you take away that run game for uh, for Detroit, and they can't. They can't mix that in. They're kind of stuck, uh, you know, dropping back with golf, which is that they don't want to do that.

They want to run play action. They want to use the run game.

So I mean whatever, like like we saw with Kansas City and Buffalo, you can if you're a defense like Kansas City, you let them run the ball, that's okay. You just don't want them getting chunk yards through the air like you can survive, you know, allowing four or five yards to carry. It's it's the ten to fifteen yards through the year that really is what affects you. So you know, I'm not as worried about that. I mean, you know, maybe if Detroit gets the ball first and they just pound it down down their throat, But I just think that you're Detroit's not going to stop this offense.

They haven't stopped to anybody.

And so once you know San Francisco is able to get a lead, I don't think they're gonna be able to use that run game effectively. But you know we'll see having nothing nothing is automatic here. But and you talked about I will say to back that that you're talking about that these teams get scared. I did look that up because I was curious and I only have data back to two thousand. But teams like the Niners that that won but did not cover, and our home favorites in the playoffs the next week against a team that did win and did cover, like like Detroit did, They're eight and two against the spread, covering by an average of five points per game. So that kind of to your point, you win, but you kind of all, right, didn't look great, didn't cover.

Everyone is back in the other team, right.

Because they won and covered, looked great and the home favorite just you know, essentially blows them out. So it's it's occurred, you know, eight out of ten times, just just enough, you know, for for whatever sort of small sample.

But that kind of backs your point.

I said that after that game, I was like, boy, that that is the scare they may have needed, right, and the fact that they somehow got through that game, you know, could really use Trent Williams, by the way to curse to me Washington.

I could really use it, guy. I like that.

That is.

I love I love hearing that.

And I'll ask you two the same questions then that I asked of will There at the end, which is all right. If I come to you from the future and I say one of these two teams, the Ravens or the Niners did lose, who is the answer to that question? Is it the Ravens TA, Yeah, it has to be. It has to me because it'll Todd same thing Ravens, right.

Yeah, yeah, I mean I would agree. The only the only thing that the other only thing that scares me about the Niners. And I kind of agree with everything Cleve said, and I kind of I think, like like you said, Gilly, I think this is their week. You know this, It gets everybody's attention in the building. By the way, if you're if you're if you're running a football team, you have a building and everyone.

Is in that building.

Those people in that building, in all the rooms, the wide receiver room, the defensive tackle, whatever room you're in. You might get a little nervous when you should have lost the game you didn't, and all of a sudden it focuses the mind. But you know, with that said, the only other thing that really scares me just a little bit, and it will scare me if they get to the super Bowl, for sure, is brock Purty A hundred ready for the moment he's he does. He scares me. Early in that game against the Packers, he threw an itch interception that should have happened that we've coined. I've coined the phrase here on this megapod interception that should have happened through it right to the Packer guy who dropped it, and he had and I immediately texted you guys that it's Jimmy Garoppolo all over again. And he does scare me a little bit. I do think though the Lions aren't the one that's gonna knock him out.

I'm gonna let Cleeve go. I'm gonna let ta do all this. But but I just want to interject with this because I mentioned this on the show on Monday, which is there is definitely a thing where Brock Purdy is not granted the grace that other quarterbacks are. And I don't know if it's because he was myster irrelevant drafted where he was last, but for some reason, and I'm a big Jordan Love fan too, but when Jordan Love has terrible three out of four last drives and Rock Purdy shines through in the last drive, people don't seem to ever mention about Jordan Love.

But if Purdy did that, God help us.

And so I said this on Monday, and then somebody tweeted me that Richard Sherman went after Ryan Clark because Ryan Clark was sort of slandering Party, and Richard Sherman's like, what are you talking about? And Debo backed up Sherman going after Ryan Clark about this, and that that's the other point about all these anti party peoples. It's not just that the advanced metrics back him up. Actual football players, including ex quarterbacks, right like Kurt Warner, just heap praise on them, so you don't have to believe the analytics.

He's bad though, Gilly, you know, yeah.

Right, No, I know, but I'm just saying, I just it's an interesting thing anyway. Ta, I'm sorry.

You can go ahead on it because I know you'll you'll be better at this than I will.

No, Look, I'm I think I ran.

Out of cases when I was trying to make that the.

MVP case and that kind of fell on its face.

At the end.

So but yeah, for the system that he's running, he runs it effectively. There's only so much you can ask and it has to be it's the pedigree thing. It's and if you recall Tom Brady, you know, his first Super Bowl run, like he was a game manager in quotes and he got a lot of the saying things perty did. It took a little while for people to really buy into the fact that the guy is great.

Now again, I'm not comparing the.

Two, but just saying, I think where you're drafted matters a lot with how you know people.

Look at you.

So and back real quick to Todd's question about the run, because I was curious, Uh, you know, Green Bay had a fifty percent success rate running the ball against the Niners, but I was looking at their game log, look at some other teams that had high success rates, and tell me what happened, you know, from a result standpoint, and tell me if there's a correlation between run success and final score. H Washington had a fifty seven percent success rate against the Niners, Seattle fifty three, Tampa fifty three, and the Rams fifty eight. I think the Niners won by at least seventeen and all of those games except for the Rams, they won by seven. Like I'm not worried about uh, you know, running the football. You let teams run, it's no problem. It's just you don't want them to throw in game big chunks on you. So you know, to your point, that's I'm not really worried about that as much.

It was an amazing escape job, for sure, But they get through somehow. And here we are Niners and Ravens who appear to be on a collision course.

For most of the year.

Even with all the flare ups of like, oh, Buffalo's not the team you want to play in the postseason. Patrick Mahomes is Michael Jordan. It does appear to be their year. We shall see on Sunday. Last question about the teaser. If you were forced to make a teaser here, would everybody make the Niners Chiefs teaser in this game?

And you know, I worry about the Chiefs, like I feel like it's too easy to just say, you know, Mahomes getting the points like there are.

I mean, the Ravens blow everybody out.

It's not inconceivable they win by ten points here against I mean, get me four and a half and then I'll take the teaser. I actually think that, you know, getting maybe the Niners down to the total I mean, I hate teasing total I wouldn't tease anything here, but getting that total down to like forty five, forty four or forty five looks pretty good because I think the Niners might get that themselves. So I think doing that with the Niners minus one would be attractive one if I had to, obviously I will.

It is so true about the Ravens, though, life, So Aaron shotts again, going back to DVA for a second. He had finally this regular season. Then the final tally was that the Ravens were his fifth greatest team of all time.

DVA is granular.

It's play by play date all the way back to nineteen eighty one is as far back as he goes. By the way, he's doing eighty and seventy nine, so Todd, they'll get to some Steelers teams here. But what he has is the greatest teams are the two thousand and seven Patriots, the ninety one Skins, the eighty five Bears, three famous teams, and the twenty ten Patriots, and then it's this year's Ravens. The Niners finished ninth, and the reason that the Ravens his biggest reason that the Ravens are that highly ranked is exactly.

What you just alluded to ta which is.

The manner in which they destroyed so many other good teams, right, Detroit being one of them, Seattle, Miami obviously, the Niners. And so I mean they just smacked some of these teams. In the case of the like the Lions, they just I mean that game was over. They punched him in the mouth so quick, that was just over by halftime.

So what is that based on?

Is that saying Is he trying to say that that the Ravens are better than the rest of the league so much so that they're the fifth best better than the rest of the league. Is that what he's saying? Or are they the fifth best in general terms meaning the year doesn't matter.

As I understand it, it is fifth best as compared to what the average output of every play ought to have been late league average in that particular year.

Well, then that makes more sense because if you tell me this is the fifth best NFL team of all time, I just don't think that's correct because I think the years were different, you know what I mean. But if you're saying, okay, based on how they did versus other teams in relation to the rest of the league, then I guess you could make a better case, you know, for that.

I'm pretty sure I don't have the exact stat.

I'm pretty sure the Ravens have trailed by double digits, like for like five plays the entire season.

It's like some.

Insane stat that they're either blowing you out or when or losing really close.

So does that bother you at all?

Though?

Like let me, let's say Mahomes does take a lead, Let's say the Chiefs do take a league.

Does that give you any doubt?

I don't know what we saw it last week, like they weren't playing great early and they kind of turned it on.

I'm you know, I think the doubt could be.

Like if Spagnola is throwing like haymakers at Lamar Jackson, he just can't figure out the blitz against a really good secondary, Like it's more than just like the psychological factor. But you know, that's why I'm nervous about this game. I think that's a great I mean, I think that's a great matchup between the DC and Lamar, and Lamar has proven like remember that Thursday Night game a couple years ago against Miami when Flores just went all out blitz and he had no answers. Do they have an answer this time against a really good defense?

And I don't know.

That's why I haven't bet this game, because that is what's holding me back.

Otherwise I would be on the Ravens.

I think that that kind of that matchup there is a tough one.

Yeah, it's gonna be Pittsburgh.

You know, Pittsburgh beat the Ravens this year, which, by the way, if you want to talk about the all time most wacko like, I think Pickett was in that game in fact, and he wasn't good, and somehow the Steelers won in a game they had no business winning. But you know, I mean it's the NFL. Anything can happen, obviously.

So it's a long season, man, Like, think about how long ago that Lion's Chiefs opening game was. It's just like, it's tough to get through an eighteen games see or excuse me, a seventeen game season without and that dipping Yeah, yeah, that Steeler.

Who's game for Remember that was the one where like the Ravens had like ten drops, right, they had like just an insane number of drops, right, and then they threw a pick Lamar threw a pick in the end zone at like the five yards they're at the five yard line.

He threw a fade when they.

Were ups I think they're up three, and it would have the game. They throw a picking the end z on the fourth quarter and they came back down and score. That was just typical tomlin Vudu. You know, I don't know, that's weird stuff happens.

But yeah, the the Ravens really only had a tough game against the Rams, that overtime game where they couldn't stop the Rams, but they ended up winning the game. The Browns game that they lost in a fluky interception situation, if I remember correctly, every other game.

But Titan was didn't they have a Titans game that went to overtime and that they should have won that game too.

That that was the Colts game they lost in the beginning of.

The Colts the Colts, right, right, right, Yeah.

But other than that the Colts game, you know, every other game you weren't. I mean, in the Steelers game, which we already talked about, you kind of were like, well, the Ravens aren't going to lose this game.

You know, it's been an amazing ride, all right. I think we've done all we can do. Yes, anything else, anything else leaped to mind on this. Let me just close with a coaching question. If I told you we'll throw out you know, we'll throw out Red versus Harbaugh, and we'll figure reed'll do something stupid and maybe it won't cost him, but he'll probably do something stupid at some point. Harbaugh pretty much isn't one of the guys we think of with that kind of thing. But the other game is Shanahan versus Campbell. If I said to you, Ta, I'm like, all right, one of these guys really messed it up. They made the blunder that cost their team the game or at least had a huge impact on the win. Probability does it end up being Shanahan or does it end up being Dan Campbell.

Yeah, it has to be Shanahan.

I mean, it may end up being Campbell, just if we look at the results, Like, maybe he goes forward a bunch of times on fourth down. As you know, they drive down a few times in the first half, and it's fourth and three from the twenty, and he goes for it and doesn't get it because he knows he needs seven not three, and they end up getting blown out, and then you know, national media says, oh, I can't believe Dan Campbell went for it and all those fourth downs, like you'll get some of that, but he made the right call. So I'm confident that Campbell's going to be the aggressiveness is the right move and he's gonna make the right calls. Whereas Shannon and I think it's more. I don't think it's gonna cost him to win. I think it's gonna cost potentially a uh a cover. That's where that's where I'd be nervous about. And I will say the thing with the we didn't note this, but with the Dot Todd Bowl going for two last week, by the way he's done it before, that wasn't the first time, and teams are doing more often. The seven is probably less valuable than you think this week because Dan Campbell, if he's down fourteen, he's gonna go for two.

Oh he scores. So that went from if you're.

Looking at key numbers, it's still going to hit you know, a decent amount. But if it's a situation where you know, uh, Detroit's down fourteen and they score a touchdown, that could be the difference. We might fall in that situation again where it comes down to a two point con versions, So keep an eye on.

That good point.

The eight and the eleven. I feel like the eight and the eleven and the five have become much much more uh in play because of all these scenarios where the eight you know and you get the field goal, or the eight you know you're down eleven, you get the touchdown, you down five. I feel like the five, eight, and eleven's are just so much.

Bigger now, especially with Dan Campbell.

Yes for sure, Yeah he has.

Uh boy, he's come a long way since that opening press conference. We think of him differently.

Now, Well, here's the thing. In his building, they do something different than all the other NFL buildings, and that is we played into this football. So that's what we're going to try to do. We're gonna try to win this.

Does he do that in every room in the building or just in some rooms of the building. Everyone, Oh, we can't hear Todd all of a sudden, say again, Todd, Oh, we on the show with Todd.

We're not being audible.

I was going to tell you that Dan Campbell is a little bit more.

Like a like at the at the Grammys when they cut you out there.

That's right, we stepped them off. Go ahead, Todd, Well you get the final word, Todd wish go ahead.

I just said he's a little more subdued in the kicker room than he is in the defensive alignment room. In the defensive linement room, he's talking about we're gonna be top right, we're gonna eat nails for breakfast, and then when he's in the you know, the kicker room.

He goes away again. We just swept him off that.

We did a little kicker analysis on the show on the radio side last week.

Boy, that that was good. That was a good exercise with.

Tyler Bass and Andrews Carlson being so significant in their team's losses. If you look at these four kickers, obviously you'd have to rank Justin Tucker as one, with Harrison Butker one A.

And then on the uh on the NFC side or.

Really where the questions live with Michael Badgley who is newish still to the Lions, and then Jake Moody's.

Is a rookie so I hate him.

Well, he hasn't kicked that many field goals this year because the Niners are always scoring.

So I don't know what.

Which get out of this one in the Browns game that cost me a bazillion dollar.

Well, and he got that one blocked at the end of the first half, which was low trajectory, which Shanahan settled for, right, So there's that to consider as well.

All right, wouldn't threaten life though, I'm just telling you know, I would never threaten guys to check.

I just want to be clear, all right, boys, I appreciate it. Todd Wishnet from his mom's cork attic, Pittsburgh, PA at t Wishing Have you still signing up people for college hoops?

Yeah, I just there's a lot of people that asked to get in, and so I can't get everybody right away because I don't have time to just be entering people for my whole life. But I try, you know, get a couple here and there, you know, I try to add twenty at a time or something, you know.

All right, And for Will Hill, by the way, Will had to go do Lombardy Show, so we appreciate that he is. He has got a new podcast it's called should Have Bet More, which is real good. Check that out and cleave t a. C. L e V t A on the Twitter machine.

Man, I appreciate it.

Man, it's so great that you uh, that you're kind enough to do these. Cannot tell you how grateful I am. Thank you so much.

No, I appreciate it.

You guys are great to do it with.

What's that Clead?

Good to talk to you and we'll be talking. Junis al Gawskiz on the Twitter. I'm sure.

Let me ask you a question, Todd.

When I say that to Cleve and he starts speaking in your what in your spectrumy brain, it means that you have to talk right there.

I didn't hear him.

Gilly all right, By the way, another chance for me to recommend the Netflix show Love on the Spectrum if you want something life affirming.

What a great show it is.

Thank you, guys, Cleve Todd, wishnev Gil, Alexander good luck with all your bets of this weekend.

Thank you so much for listening.