2024 BNP Paribas Open Indian Wells Preview (Tennis' "Fifth Major")

Published Mar 6, 2024, 12:47 AM

Gill Alexander is joined by Drew Dinsick (NBC Sports Bet). They preview the Indian Wells from all betting angles, offering betting strategies and analysis on this episode of Beating The Book.

Take it Down Man, Tuesday afternoon, March fifth, twenty twenty four. It is the Beating the Book podcast, Indian Wells Baby Tennis's de facto fifth major, the PNB Pariba Open Skill Alexander. We are doing this on this afternoon because we were here. First of all, there's a couple of reasons. One the draw only came out twenty four hours ago for a tournament that begins tomorrow morning, Wednesday. And the other reason that we have to delay it just a few more hours is that this gentleman had to get his skiing in. It's the great Drew Dinsik Whale Underscore Capper, co host of not only The Deep Dive podcast, which he does with this buddy Andy moletor but of course NBC Sports Bet the Edge podcast as well, which he does with Jay Croucher. Correct, I want to get his name in there.

I never get his name, yes, Jay, of course, Yeah, I've got to connect you with you. He's he's an advantage player, and.

He's Australian and knows American sports so well.

Right yeah, Well, I mean his background is funny because he was a lawyer in Australia and found a passion for sports betting, got hired by Points bet there, and then they gave him like liberty to kind of hire a team to bring over to the US to run the points betting trading room. And then he was like, you know what, I can actually do better if I'm just playing, If I'm just betting, that's right. So I'm going to go ahead and walk away from this. And then the next thing, you know, NBC scooped him up to the on air talent and so he gets the best of both worlds, gets to do a little content and a little bit of betting.

Well, good for you for doing both, and thank you for We're going to put a visual up of this, I hope at some point. But Drew is literally outside where are you?

You're an aspen, you said, yes, where the beer flows like wine. It is a wild place, man. A lot of fun so far, and yes, we hit the absolute Jackpotski Karma. It's dumped for a good forty eight hours.

It did.

It was like white out conditions for forty eight hours on the front end of our arrival. A playing got in on time, and it's just been fresh powder every which way you could find it. So this week is going to be pretty special.

How often do you just sit back and say to yourself self, I got a pretty good life. Yeah, no, I'm good for you. You live it, you live it well, you absolutely live it well.

All right.

So here's the thing. And I say that without it, you know, with I guess equal parts end me. But also like with appreciation, by God, it's awesome. Here's the thing. So this tournament. First of all, let me just say this. I went to this last year. It's for a guy who loves being in his car and driving. It's a difficult drive from Vegas because you really are through the desert to the point where at some point you say to yourself, if something happens to me out here, we're all toast. So I wanted to go this year. It didn't work out, but it is an amazing tournament to go to. It is hard courts, but is the slowest of hard courts. I don't know if you saw this you were skiing today, but like, there seems to be a tennis ball controversy that has a sprung up. See that Andy Roddick was tweeting about it. So we have outrights, we have first round matches. We don't have the schedule exactly a first round matches, but we'll do what we can here. Let's talk about it from a macro perspective. Let's start on the women's side. Ladies first, where IgA Schiantech drew the number one player in the world depending on where you're shopping plus two seventy five at DraftKings. She's right around that pocket. She won this two years ago. Ilena Rebakina won it last year. She is the let me not lie. She is the number three shot here at six to one, with the arena Sabaline Arena sabalink in between at plus three fifty. Coco Goff the de facto number four player in the world at plus six to fifty, not the facto she actually is. And then, honestly, the drop off, as we talked about last time before the Australian Open, is really stark. Where do you start with that? Is that pretty much the headline? It's those four and then a drop off.

I would even say those three and then a drop off. I'm not really considering Cocoa golf live here. We haven't seen her play, especially while at all in the year twenty twenty four. Gil It's been a rough go of it for miss Goff. And you know, I mean she did this last year. She was not the same player at all at the end of the season that she was at the beginning. And you know, I don't expect ultimately that we're going to look at her run through the US Hardcore swing to a US Open title. I don't expect we're going to look at that and be like, Wow, that was a fluky one off. I think we're I think she'll she'll kind of, you know, have a nice long career and be competitive and be you know, US women's number one for a long time. But the way she's playing so far in twenty twenty four does not inspire you the kind of confidence that she can get through this difficult a field. The women's kind of middle classes better than it's ever been, like not good enough to like, you know, really really say that they're going to take down you know, all three of the big three here, but you know, good enough that Coco getting to a semi finals would be a huge victory for her and her team. And at that point she would probably be what uh plus three fifty two sable anca, So you know, it's I have to put her on a second at the top of tier two in this tournament. And you know, our friend jay Rod sent me the draw within five seconds of hitting.

Shout out to vera shout out to because he is.

No no faster fingers on the internet.

There really is a Jay Rod really does. It just has informs us perfectly on this stuff. So thank you to Jeff.

I thought he was playing a brank on me though. It's like the same draw. It's like the same draw as the Australian Open, like almost identical on the women's side.

It's so bizarre.

Yeah, you get to get you get to is got the same nonsense head to head against a bunch of really really high ceiling players.

Collins as Panco.

She's gonna have to play Rebaka, then the Semis and then presumably sad blank in the finals. Like this is nasty, and I think the price reflects that. Like what was do you remember what the what ego ultimately closed at Australia. Was it like plus two twenty five ish?

Yeah, it was shorter than shorter than this, yes, so plus.

Sure right yeah, And like this is an easier thing to win because you don't have to win seven matches. You get a buye uh and uh, so you get Danielle freaking Collins after Collins has had to kind of play a hard match presumably, and so that helps you a little bit at the in the early on set here. But and you know, these conditions are substantially more favorable to eat his game generally. You know, there's there's a long standing joke of this being kind of extume you to say, a joke like if you take a giant step back and you want to talk about what Indian wells is to I think a lot of players, this is sort of the official like start of the season, right the Australian Open swing is feels very premature for a lot of players who are just not really ready for it. And then you have some weird indoor you know, indoor matches in Europe, you have the clay Swing in South America, the Golden Swing in South America. The women go to do this weird tough back to back in the Middle East, and you know, it's just a little the tour is a little you know, kind of not bifurcated, but just a little bit spread out, like you know, people aren't you know, it's it's a little bit preseasoning. Yes, yes, Indian Wells is sort of in my mind at least sort of the start of the regular season for most everyone on tour, and it's kind of a proving ground for anyone who thinks that they're going to do well over the balance of the middle part of the season because it kind of neutralizes those players who are especially good at just hard court versus those who are especially good at clay court. Like everybody's kind of got a chance here, and you know, you go from Indian Wells to Miami and then right into clay before grass and then come back to the US hard and I think this is you kind of learn a lot about these players at this tournament, I feel like, and you know, I don't, I don't.

You know, typically.

Have many takeaways from the first two and months in change of the season, but this year feels a little different because they did push, particularly push the women's tournament, you know up where they had the two thousands back to back in what was it Doha and Dubai.

We're back to back.

And Doha was fascinating because you got to see the best of the best against each other and you got to see a final between IgA and Rabakana that I think was like hugely consequential of them positive way for Ega because rebakken I had sort of been the boogeyman and uh, you know, she gets her after a slow start to that match. Yeah.

By the way, by the way, and a year ago, Re'bakenna beat Ega in the semis here six two six two, just to.

Clarify that, Yeah, yeah, that was sort of the boogeyman moment. Actually, yeah, because I think did rebaccn also take her out at was it was?

It was the Australian Open.

She popped her at the Australian Open on the way to her final, losing the final Sabalinka. I think Australia. Yeah, somebody else might have gotten her there, but but basically Verbakkena was a little bit of the Ega killer and Ega getting her in Doha final was pretty impressive and pretty important, I think. Uh, and then Ega probably should have backed it up with another one thousand in in Dubai, but kind of weirdly ran out of Gasbakkana.

Did beat Ega in the fourth round of the Australian Open linelast year six for six four.

Right right, yeah, right, So you know, the fact that that kind of head to head is a little bit less tilted, I think is huge for uh, you know, expecting to get a competitive semi final match between those two women. And I don't think there's really anyone else in the top half of the draw that you're really kind of very especially concerned of making a run here deep into this tournament. Can be said, I think the top half is tough.

Top half is tough. Let's so I want to beat you to the punch on my next question because I think you're going there. But with Q one, just to let people know, here are some of the names. This is not in order of play, but these are sort of names of the top so Q one is Sia Tech, Mirah Andreva, Katie Bolter, who just came off winning a tournament, Freaking Collins Ostapenko, Mattie Keys talking about like best best performance could be could be troubling if she's playing her a game. Q two is Rabakinah and the likes of Pavlou with Chenkova, colin Skaya who's had a good first part of this season, Paulini as well, Costia Kadad maya bottom half start with Sabaleka do you because you said you said big three at everybody else right here. How do you feel about Sabalaika, who, as we've all said already this year, uh took time off to get veneers and didn't really seem to care about tennis that much. Do you really consider her a threat here because we don't really know what we're getting with her, do we.

I remember after she won the Australian Open last year thinking like, man, that was such a career defining moment for her, that she was going to have a nice long exhale and it was gonna be a while before we saw her play competitive tennis. And I think I even we might even talk about it. We were like, man, like, she'll be kind of at home in Miami, Like that's a better speed course speed for her, similar to Australia. Like that's maybe where you see her kind of, you know, recapture some of the top form you saw from her in Australia. But she showed up at Indian Was last year and was freaking awesome. Yeah, she ultimately didn't win, but to the final, very very she was very very good Rebakka and I was just treeing. She was playing absolutely top level the best probably her peak, I would say as a player, if you're going to go with like just an Elos type of ranking, I think Rabaka at Indian Wells was probably the best she's ever been. And I think uh Sablanca was very very good uh there. And the fact that she wins the Australian Open again and just completely mails in the next month is interesting. Like she's got no they cuts both ways though, right, Like she's got no tread nowhere on the tread right there's you know, completely fresh.

She played.

She played one match in Dubai and she was awful in that match, like just like just not interested in being there, showed up for the paycheck kind of stuff, and kind of in that moment you're like think, is she going to sign them for like one of these two fifties, you know, like something small and just kind of get some reps, you know, and just get a win under her belt before Indian Wells, Or is she's just going to go to Indian Wells like completely cold Turkey and just.

Try to find form there.

And yes, it suppose the latter, So it's this is somewhat speculative, but her plan seems to be I'm going to play myself into shape at Indian Wells. And if she had gotten Ego's draw, like if you flip flop those two players in the draw, like.

So Satelinka is not making.

It do it too. There's just too many there's too many good players in that in her way that she would get pounced. But where she ended up in Q four, in particular, being really relatively soft, I think does actually serve her fairly well to you know, get a couple of matches under her belt and find some you know, find some form. And at that point, the fact that she's less battle worn maybe maybe matters. I think I hold her aren't ratings so high above everyone else in the bottom half of the drawer right now at peak that I don't think it's really worth swinging hard against her.

Here's who she's got in her quarter. She's in Q four, She's got Jesse Pegoula, who is not at the top of her game right now.

Just broke up with her coach, by the way.

Just broke up with her coach and his and her coach went to to who now I forgot he just signed? Yeah, he just signed.

That was That was That's hot.

News.

But but that was a that was a relationship that bore all of the fruit of Pegoula becoming a top four player.

Yeah, so that was a weird bad sign.

I thought Zabalanca, Pa Fiddlina, Emma Navarro obviously for those who haven't followed tennis recently, that she is a top American player at this point, in the top group. And then Leela fernand is also in there. So yeah, you're right, you're generally speaking, not the just like in Australia, not the hardest draw at all. When I am perhaps most interested in asking you, you probably know where I'm going with this. We go to we go to Q three, that is the Cocoa Quarter. Jangshen Wnn is in there, Vika Azarenka is in there. At last Merten's in there is and the one that I wanted to ask you about, Naomi Osaka is in there. Where do you stand on the four time Grand Slam Singles champion who is obviously making her way back now, Man, this.

Is so tough, like at at her peak of her powers, she's as good as the top three players, particularly on hardcore, she's and she's a funny character because literally, like if you expect her to do anything on clay or grass, Like, don't like just put an entire line through a huge portion of the season, right, And so there's a little bit of a premium on her to do something here and at Miami to get points to make, you know, make up for the fact that she's going to be getting these tougher draws and have to you know, having harder paths if she wants to do anything in the US hardcourt swing in the fall, she wants to compete at the US Open in a way that you know she has a meaningful chance to win.

Uh, she needs to.

I think we're talking about she needs to get to quarterfinals at a minimum here uh, and then back that up and go maybe even a step further in Miami.

Uh.

And then at that point I think we can say the comeback is officially on. Right now, we haven't seen enough to say that. And it's a bummer because like there's been flashes. There has been like if you want you just like if you're just you're not watching the whole match, you're just watching the YouTube highlight package. You're like, whoo, man, there she is, I remember, yeah, it she is. But it's not.

You know, the consistency is not there, the the fitness level is not there.

Uh.

And so if she's getting herself into three set matches earlier in this tournament, she's not gonna go to the then you know, not going to be around for very long. And that's kind of what the story of her tournament. You know her her twenty twenty.

Four so far.

I will tell you this though, the fact that you get a day in between. So again, for our friends who want to see Ego live, for our friends who want to see Rebakan alive, we do know that they're going to be on Friday Sunday. Friday, right, the key is Friday Sunday, which means you have a day between matches, which I think really is important for a player like Osaka who's trying to get her legs under her. And so yeah, if she wins Q three, am I gonna be surprised? Now that said, have we seen enough from her this season to say that she's fair bet at price?

I would also say, now, all right.

So here's here's the question. And again, because of the nature when the draw came out and sportsbook slow to sort of roll these out, even DraftKings does not have quarters up, I'll say, yet, I'm assuming they will have them. What price would you require, hypothetically to bet on someone like Osak to win her quarter, which is, as you said, it is Coco's quarter, and you've already said you're down on Coco.

Yeah.

Well, uh and and for that reason, like you know, as you look through the draw, if you have a specific player that you think is overrated by market, you gravitate to that quarter and at the top of the quarter that that is Coco, that is Q three. Uh. And yeah, Osaka is the likely second choice there for me. I would price her in the twenty percent ballpark. So if you're going to get me anything in the five to one range better, then I'll take it. But I don't think that's where you're going to see.

Yeah, she's got Samsonova in the second round if she's able.

To be the quality the first Yeah, sam sam Sonova is a you can't trust her whatever.

As we've as we've documented many times before, I'll never forget the time I was in the airplane and the US Opened when she had a billion match points.

Oh god, ami Yanovich in the US Open, that's right? Or fifty to one on her in that one. I was was feeling pretty good because after telling obvious, she got Serena and I was like, hey, this is it.

You got it. Q Q four is yours, all right?

So then drew the outrights. Oh wait a minute, we have quarters that have just come down. No we don't. It is it's just the winning. It's just the quarter to win the quarter. So in other words, the winning the winning.

Court in some of the exotic markets.

That's right, we don't have.

We don't have the one we want though. Ye see, just make sure I see halfe we do have.

We do have bottom and top half winners. So again, so here's the outright. The outright is ego to win it plus two seventy five. They said, DraftKings Arena seven like A plus three fifty. We're bocking a six to one Coco plus six fifty. After that, it drops all the way down to Jesse Pagoula at twenty five to one, Elina Ostapanco at twenty eight to one, and Jangshin win thirty to one, and Drava then at forty to one, everybody else fifty to one or longer. If we do have which is the only that is populated thus far half winners. Sable Anca's plus one seventy five for the bottom Coco's plus three. That's you think that's a good price, is what I'm getting out of that? Wow?

Yeah, that's a very vetable price.

Coco's plus three fifty. And then it drops all the way down to bil Janshin when and Jesse pagool at fourteen to one, the Navarros and the Fiddlinas and the Cosaquinas and the Osaka's and the Soccarias and the Samsonova's, all six of those players at twenty two to one. Wow, So there's your answer that. Oh, by the way, there's a Leela Fernandez twenty two to one.

Okay, so maybe you are going to get a better little price on a soccer Q three.

Yeah, that's what it sounds like.

So on the based on those half prices, as you will, top.

Half Egos plus one sixty, rebakkan Is three to one, Ostapanco's sixteen to one, and then Vondrasova eighteen to one, the uh defending Wimbledon champion. So Sabolenca half plus one seventy five is what's uh, what's got yeah, got.

You almost Like I would actually almost my favorite bet was would probably be sabal Anca runner up, like specifically, like specifically winning the second half and then losing the final. I feel like this is pretty likely, but I mean, you know, she she she rewarded better so effectively at the Australian Open that the market is going to be very kind to her in the head to heads, and I think, like I'm a little hesitant to get crazy on the top half, you know, just in general, because like like really the margins between Ega and Rebakana are very very close US. They're very close, and the price on Rebacca is so much better. But you know, Egas is the you know, she's the better player. You're going to get an interesting market there if that is your top half semi final.

Just to just one others kind to corroborate what you said.

Numerically, if you do hard core numbers, twelve months, six month, three months, EGA's one in twelve point six one, twelve point nine one nine point zero. I'm combining serve and return serve data. Yeah, and in Rebaccna is one O seven one nine one. So depending on what parameter you use, it's neck and neck.

It's very very close, I guess, like the one, like some of our smart friends are very in on Rebacca to win this that price, and I get it, like if you can get six to one on her and she might be the best player in the field, then like and she's the defending champion, like she obviously likes the conditions, like a lot of a lot of reasons to to really take that sincerely, But I will say that the Doha Final I thought was instructive for two reasons. Uh. Number one, Ega being able to fight back from adversity was something we haven't seen a lot. She got it, she got punched in the mouth and she bought back. And even more than that, the characteristic that really stood out about Doha it was windy. It was it was it was nasty, right, it was windy. Uh And if you know anything about Indian wells and really just in general the desert during the transitional season of March, it is it is windy. Like there are very very you know, very if there's anything that happens to kind of be an X factor in that match, if it's a windy match, then like we you know, IgA now knows what to do in a match against hervaka in the wind when last year she did not, And so I think like, ultimately Ega probably just wins that and then probably beats Sabolenka in the final and plus two seventy five maybe ultimately a pretty favorable price considering the conditions are a little on the slow side. Refreshment memory ball be damp.

Refresh my memory that in the Rabakna Ega match in Doha, which Ega won to win that tournament, the adjustment that Ega made was not trying to murder for winners, like she just kept it in play.

Was that the adjustment I would have said more like she just softened her tolerance, yes, or for going for low percentage shots better stated right, Yes, In the first four games of that one up until weirdly, Rebakna did she hit herself in the shin and was bleeding, Like I forget exactly what happened, but she ultimately self inflicted wound, drew blood and then you have to have a medical stoppage to deal with a blood issue. And so in that gap Youga talked to her coach and her coach was like, basically just chill out, like stop going for the corners, like it's too difficult with these conditions to hit those shots like just you know, kind of go for ninety percent of the corner instead of the corner. And that was like all the difference in the world, and she stopped hitting on forest airs. It set her up for more opportunities for winners, and it really frustrated Rebaccaa pretty pretty sincerely because Rebacca and I was like, you know, she was on cruise control until the mto I was on.

A plane for most of that match. That's why I don't have a recall. Okay, let me let me just ask you one non betting question, but just from a tennis viewing standpoint. So we've obviously watched Ega specifically, but also all these players so many times now, and I said to somebody to the day I go, it's almost to the point now where And it's unfair because as you just mentioned, Rebakena is right up to her, cozied right up to her in terms of raw data. Sabalaka obviously up in that tier as well. So to say that, you know, any match that EGA enters that doesn't end in a victory is disappointment, is completely unfair. Sure, even though she's the world number one, and she's won four slams already and there are more to come, I'm sure, But like, have you done anythinking about her her mental state on some of these like when she loses. Okay, so when she wins, it's often so dominant, you're like, well, there it is. She just destroyed the field. She forget losing a set. She barely lost a game in this tournament. That kind of thing. When she does lose, And let's just take the Australian Open, which was Noskova, it's often and then in Dubai, remember she was up on Colin Skaya a set, No, it was first set, she was up for two or was she up a set for two, I can't remember, but as soon as she was up a break, oh it was the first six games and then she just stopped playing and she's like, I just got tired. I just I'm mentally exhausted. Do you ever like think of her like that's the that's the sort of bugaboo with her that it's you cannot handicap some of the stuff in her that's swirling around in her head sometimes.

Yeah, I mean she puts a lot of pressure on herself. She sure does and that's not always a good thing when it's you know, a woman a womano sport, Like you know, you're you're out there by yourself a lot. Yeah, and if you are compounding the problem by putting pressure on yourself with your opponent also putting pressure on you, that can be bad. One of the things that makes Rebakka a little spooky. I mean, we jokingly call her robot Kena sometimes because she has a very robotic affect. She does not put pressure on herself, although she's got something weird going on with her coach.

But we'll be interesting. When she won, wimbled in to win her first and only slammed thus far, famously nonplussed, like nothing, unconscious.

Just just unconscious. Yeah, and that's a that's kind of the you know that, that's sort of the moniker, that's the the the you know to not to compare her to Djokovic, but like that's kind of what made Djokovic sort of special throughout, you know, so much of his kind of dominant run was just like, oh, I'm on a set, whatever, I'm done, two sets, Okay, fine, I guess I start trying now, you know, I get you know that that kind of mentality can serve you well. And he definitely has not gotten to that point in her kind of growth, and baby, she never will because it might just be human nature that she just has such a kind of compete She has a competitors mentality to me, like as opposed to like a like a hey, like this will work. She's not laissez faire in any way shape or for her. She's very much like this is like like every shot, every point, every game is in my control, is my destiny, like and if it's out of control, then that's a problem, right, And I think you know the the fact that you know you said, I think kind of an interesting point, which was any time she doesn't win a match feels a little bit like a disappointment. Well, I mean, it's going to be an upset for the most part, unless it's against one of the big you know, the other Big three, other two of the big three. And I would say any tournament that she doesn't win is a disappointment on clay, surely, Like she is still clearly the class of the world on clay, and if she doesn't win a clay tournament, then you would have my brass raised.

But on hardcourt.

It's still a relatively level playing field between sable Link or Baccna and Egan right now, I think, and you know, the the kind of the story of the off season was you cald really spend a lot of her time with her team, with her coaches, like specifically coming up with tactical approaches for dealing with the Ribaccanas of the world, dealing with the Ostenkos the world, dealing with the women who can hit just a just a heavy heavy ball.

Again for keeping me informed at every tournament.

Sure, but yeah, like it was specifically to impact her ability to come, you know, kind of level the playing field with Rebakena, who she may have to play in the semi finals, with Ostapenku she may have to play in the quarterfinals.

And I think.

Ultimately that should be uh uh, you know, it should should be able to matter in some way, shape or form here because again it's against its slot of conditions here, which means movement matters a little bit more, shot making matters a little bit more. Uh, there's less of a uh, you know, kind of serve and bang winner, you know, type of firepower can get you across the finish line here, So you know, her return skills in her return game should should be kind of the should be the X factor really to get her this title, I would guess. And I think ultimately the you know, the thing you worry about is the match against Noskova or the match against Kalinskaya where she's like, you know, I'm eighty ninety player to win that match in that match, like clearly the better player, but something happens in the match that takes her out of it, or you know, kind of just puts her on tilt because all of a sudden it's not in her control anymore. And you know that may just take reps or you know, if who knows what else you know, rather than tactics, maybe you just need like a you know, mind state type coach or something like that. But yeah, I mean I don't I don't think that sort of the the shocker potential is completely uh, you know, off the table, like you can get checked.

Oh yeah, and by the way, not that Colin Skuya nor Nooskovar are bad players. They're both very good players. But you ego should be able to beat both of them. Yeah, it was four to two, by the way, first set against Colin skuy By the way, I love that you're on the ski slope and I'm in the casino and your audio is so much better than mine with the noise here. All right, so let me just clarify. So you like Sableeca half plus one seventy five? You like that number? Did you end up with any outrights? Did you actually bet an outright then here?

No?

I have that man, honestly, honestly like, uh uh.

My guess is that Rebakna is going to look so clinical in the early going here with her soft draw, that you're going to get a chance if you want to bet Ega. I think you're going to do better than even what is a favorable price in my opinion, like my price set my fair says bet eg out right here, I bet think my fair better. My fair would be my fair would be about it would be about plus two two fifteen. So I think anything in the two seventy five range is plus ev Beiga. But I also expect that with Sable Inca having an easy draw and Reboca to having a relatively easy quarter, I think you're going to have opportunity for avoiding the shocker early with Ega and just betting her in those two matches as a small favorite back to back and do better than plus two seventy five that you can get right now. So now with first round, that's that's my general fiel.

That's it's a good call.

Now.

Of course I still bet Ego, but you know that's me shocker. So we don't have again the exact schedule of first round matches, but they did post all the prices on I don't think it's even all the first round matches. It's probably not, or maybe it is, but we don't know what's tomorrow morning or Thursday. I don't know if you've had a chance to scan these. Yeah, I both on the men's and women's. We'll get to the men's here momentarily. There is I haven't died, I haven't dived deep into these yet, but just on a glance, there ain't a whole lot for me. I'll tell you one of them and you can just let the hate wash over me for what I'm about to say. But yeah, you know who should not be anywhere close to plus two thirty five in their match is Katie Valnettes against Mirror and Rava. She just shouldn't be a dog.

Yeah, as I've completely lost track of Mira after what was an undressing Evan's and then just to hang on by the skin of her teeth against Danielle Perry and then a loss just a you know in the Australian opened. She hasn't shown us much of a step forward since then, which is a little bit kind of you know, what's what's their team up to? What are they doing?

Like, I don't really understand exactly what the plan is, but so I don't. I don't disagree with you there, I will tell you the.

I haven't looked at the match by match because I'm waiting on the order of play in particular.

Too, because I don't want to do extra work.

Well yeah, that that that and there are there are some.

Venues, some ornaments Miami good example, where I don't really care, like opay op, who's on what court? It doesn't really matter like Indian wells it matters, right, The courts are different, very different, so night night versus day it might as well be two different venues. Like it's it is it is usually dry and sometimes windy during the day, and then nighttime it can play like it can play so much slower, so you can you know, if you have a I tend to look for players who are better in slower conditions, who are playing in the night matches against you know, and they're being priced like it's the day match, right, Like that's that that sort of stuff tends to, uh to really make a difference in match by match betting.

At Indian Wells in particular, what.

Was interesting is that I don't you know, and I went last year again, they didn't have Ega playing at night. Ever, she was in the daytime every every round there.

I think her team must have requested that because the finals are always during the day. Yes, semi finals and finals are always during the day, and so you can kind of get into a little bit of a I've seen it for sure, some shock, some like kind of uh you know, what do you call it? The just conditioned shock where most of your matches you're playing at night and then all of a sudden you're in the day conditions, and you know, like where am I? This is a different court, this is a different you know, different animal entirely requesting day. Have you gone to this tournament before, Drew, No, I haven't. I remember when I've been. I've been to Indian Wells like ten times in my life, and ever during the actual tour. I can't explain it.

I remember when I told you I went last year. Your response, I don't know if you remember this. Your response was, that's not a tournament you go to, which I thought was such a great response, and I was like, well, I kind of get that, but man, do I this is such a great time of year because it's right before March Madness, so you don't have For those of us who are just completely immersed in March Madness, there's not that priority. It's do I go to Indian Wells? Do I go to Spring Raining? It's such an amazing moment in the sports betting calendar, So that's.

The only one I'm always I'm always stuck here because it's like ski season. This is like kind of the quintessential time to go. After President's Days over. Everybody who's got kids and families that are like, well, excuse season's over. So the slops are empty things that everything's cheaper. Conditions are incredible, and so we always try to do our ski trip at the beginning of March, which makes it tough to get the Indian Wells. And then yeah, then March madness. I was trying to get out to Vegas, so it always does complicate things, But this would have been the freaking year to go.

And I haven't entirely written I have not entirely written off.

Going the Sunday of the middle week because this is probably going to be Nadal's last run I ever seen him plays.

That's the big more. That's because I saw Carlitos last year. But this is Djokovic and the doll my god.

Yeah. Right by the.

Way, Just to be thorough on this, Paula Medosa just pulled out of the tournament. So, like I mean, this is how premature we are because everywhere I go, she's got a match with Ashlyn Krueger. That's not gonna happen. Kurdjikova was out, and that's not to mention players who have injuries like an Jabor. The reason we don't mention her, she's all banged up. You know, her numbers haven't mentally and mentally and mentally too anyone.

I guess here's a here's a fun question for you.

Anyone on the women's side besides Carolyn and Pleshkova, who has really surprised you so far in twenty twenty four.

Who has surprised me? Based because I'm so numbers focused, Like Colin Skaya doesn't surprise me. Let me, that's a great question. Let me like run through names here, dude, do do do da da da?

Uh?

Katie Bolter's numbers are good, so that doesn't necessarily shock me.

Well, I yeah that, but them being good does kind of right?

Yes, them being good, that's correct. Yeah, no, no, no, okay, yeah, that's though. That's a better way to answer the question, whose numbers surprise me? Colin Skaya did surprise me when I saw her, you know, when I've been following your numbers Bolters to Bolters, Do Paulini has surprised me?

Right?

Those would be my three answers, I'll tell you to the negative, who surprises me like Carolyn Garcia has fallen off the map for us as has a lot of names on the women's side, right you boor because of injury Vondrasova Cassadkina soccer eas Alexandra Sakari is one of these players that you know her numbers are completely off, yet when she gets into a tournament like this, she manages to win early. Typically MM hmm, Like, you know, the rot O'cannas of the world don't necessarily surprise me that their numbers are what they are. Peyton Stern's falling into the toilet surprises me. So there's there's more surprise to the bottom than there is the top. Really if that answered, yeah, that's fair. Were you thinking of someone specifically?

No, I was. I was just curious because like, like, there's usually one or two players who play well ish in the early going who but they don't like like the Pallallinian and count Sky like market's not going to be they're not caught with their pants down a second time. Like, so that was that was your Dubai final, right, like, like there's there's no there's probably no meat on the boat there, but there are usually a couple of women who at least are more competitive than you would have guessed in some kind of middling of a tournament match, and they can pop at Indian wells. And I haven't really put my finger on who that is just yet, but we didn't.

We did. This is an interesting time.

Yeah, we didn't say much about Shin wein Zang. What do you give her puncher's chance here?

Not really I don't like these conditions for her. And honestly, since the run to the Australian Open final, and particularly the way that final played out, it felt like it didn't acted or confidence a little bit. She's not playing like the same confident player that almost took out You get the rolling Garris a couple.

Years ago, remember that.

Yeah, yeah, it's it's not it's just it's not quite the same.

At that moment when she took a set for me, it was like, oh, here's the next great player. Hasn't panned out? All right? Men's side, No surprise here at the top. Everybody's playing. The Osaka of this side is obviously Nadal. For lack of a better analogy, this is his final year on tour. I guess we'll just use that as a sort of parameter. He said that, you know, all indications are that this is whatever, whatever run this is, it's the final run he got to the finals in this Remember the epic Taylor Fritz. Oh Fritz is gonna hurt because it's hurt and it's not even gonna be played to. Oh no, it's actually Nadal who's heard and Taylor Fritz ends up beating him. By the way, Taylor Fritz is a name I want to bring up too because I'm curious about what you say. But let's start with Nidal. What can youightfully expect from him here Championship? You can't, I think, I think you can't expect that. Yeah, I mean, like, you know, he's he's he's good enough at his at his best to win.

I don't know that he is.

And you know, again, like if this was a type of tournament where he what's the when you get on clay, like if you drop them into like Monte Carlo right now, and he had to play and he had to play every day on cli. Yeah, I'm like, he's probably right, but that but the day off in between, I think does help him a little bit, get his feet under him. Uh. And kind of the mental you know, the like like the tricky thing about what's going on with Djokovic right now? Uh, and in particular the fact that alkaaz and the center of beating him now, like, yeah, it's problem for Djokovic right like he doesn't have the uh, you know kind of the uh you know, the the big brother little brother thing on the on the next gin anymore. And but Nadal still have a little bit of that mystique, I guess. I mean, I know al Crez beat him on clay, but you know it's still when he was. You know, even even after losing to Fritz in that Indian Wells final, like he took Fritz to a mental torture chamber at Wimbledon that I don't know that Fritz has ever recovered from like that. That was, Like, you know, there's still a mystique about Nadal, but I think gives him enough of an X factor that you can't dismiss him from winning a title here.

That's it.

If he plays one match and oh my adhurts and I'm scratching the Also shouldn't be surprised.

They showed the replay. I had forgotten about this. So before that Fritz match, I guess the second round of two years ago, he played Sebastian Quorda, and I had forgotten. Sebastian Quorda was up two breaks, five to two in the third set against him, and Rafa did Rafa things and beat him.

Yeah, he's got the he's got the mental edge over basically everyone on tour.

Yeah, just because of the mystique.

Even Djokovic to that matter for that, but I mean Djokovic obviously isn't afraid of him, but that's not a particularly flattering head to head for Djokovic.

And you know, I think ultimately, like is he gonna win? I think I think I would put my.

Over under at an adult titles in twenty twenty four right now, I would put it at like two and a half. I was like, I think he's getting he's going to get a couple. I think he'll get two, he might get three. And I think he has a better chance at the you know, these events where you have a day in between. I think he has a better chance at these events where the sports be is a little slower. Obviously clay and I think, you know, the fact that he is, you know, seems to be in form at least from what I saw in his exhibition against al Kraz. You know, I don't I don't think there's a huge He needs court time to get tuned up really, you know. And so I think ultimately I think he's going to be a factor at this tournament. I think he'll be a factor at a couple of clay tournaments and to Rolling Garris, I think he'll be.

A factor at Rolling Garo.

So yeah, I think I think there is definitely a hero's exit potential for Nadal in twenty twenty four. I don't think this is a Hey, I'm just going to show up at all these tournaments and get my farewell, you know, cheer from the crowd, and not compete.

Nadal gets Milos Rounich in the first round, by the way, and I sort of I sort of laughed, or I sort of smiled because the line was Nadal minus one seventy two minus one sixty nine somewhere in that pocket, and I just sort of smiled because I'm like, how would they have any idea what to even make this? Here's the outrights Novak Djokovic plus one seventy five. These are DraftKings the Australian Open champion Yonick Center at three to one. By the way, shout out to you Drew from the last tennis podcast we did, because you nailed Cinner there.

Never getting those prices again, no, never again.

Carlitos plus three fifty Daniel, why are they going in in? Well, so early Medvedev when he saw that Nadal and Djokovic we're on the same plane early too, Indian welles Danil Medvedev seven to one, and then it drops down the Sasha Zverev and Alex de Minoir both at twenty five to one, rafa Is thirty five to one, Fritz and ruby Lev number Fritz and Rubelev at forty to one. By quarter and again these are not in any order of play, but just the names in each quarter. Quarter number one Djokovic's quarter has Umbert, who's had a great early start to twenty twenty four. Yeah, yeah, casperud, Tommy, Paul Ubert or Katz. I have to include your buddy scam Nor just to make this an official podcast.

Excuse me.

Cast champions, Indian Wells Champions, fraudulent, the most fulent Indian Wells champion of all time.

He beat, he beat what's the dude's name that he beat.

Look at all of the players he beat in that run.

It was.

It was mind bogglingly week is past that victory smoked.

That was the That was ther Budosa one.

I want to say, also, might be they had it in September I think right, everybody was all out of sorts to the pandemic.

That was.

That was That's still, Oh, that's right, it was that.

It was the October twenty twenty one.

Yeah, right, that's right.

He beat oh you know who, he beat, Bussy Lashavili.

That's right. Oh my god, that's right. Oh my Nichopaci.

Was that his last match he ever played on tour?

Yeah, feel it feels like it.

I don't think I've ever seen him come up in a tournament since then. That's so true.

Oh my god, some round one.

He probably asked some round one defeats at the slam level just to get the paychecks.

So Q one Djokovic, um bear Rude Paul or kots Nori. Q two is the medvedev Na doll. Q two is actually cut Medvedevna dolls. Yeah, Medvedev Nadal Dmitrov.

Wow.

Fritz quorda Rune Holgar really not scuff Rune. You know you asked the question like what surprises you, Taylor. Fritz's number surprised me, like I didn't believe they were still done high, but they're good. Q three sinner rube Lev. I got to include my boy Yaku Mensik, who made me a ton of money so far this year. Cool yerie Leahechka Ben Shelton Stefanos Chichipas and shout out to Emil Russavori in that quarter as well, gotta include him, and then Carlito's is Q four was Sacha Zverev, Jordan Thompson, who won a tournament a few weeks back, Jack Draper, Alex Demonor, Karin Hatchetov, and Ogier Ali a scene. Let me see if we have habs or quarters?

What is your the mensa the men's I guess, just really hearing it all out loud. The state of men's tennis is really really strong.

It really is. There's a lot of good names and there wasn't there.

Yeah, for sure, for sure.

Uh the Jordan, I will go ahead in reverse order here the Jordan Thompson Los Cabos title, UH Let's Cobos double title.

He won doubles en singles.

He was his first ever, his first ever UH Tour title.

I had, I had Nicholson in that match against Jordan Thompson was the quarter six six three oh six love three love, then six love four to one, then six love five to three, and I lost still left left to Mark Ye.

Sorry, no idea how Thompson won that, but it was fun to bet against Thompson uh in Apolo round one because you know, he was still sweating the tequila from the victory celebration of his first ever tour with it in Los Cabos. The no Autcras Q four is a wrap. I don't see there being much competition for him in that quarter. I think he's pretty cleanly through to the semi finals. I think Sinner probably comes through pretty cleanly in Q three, although there's some tougher names in there. The the I guess the Q two is the one. It's worth noting, Like Sinner hasn't lost yeah this year, Like he's he's the he's the current you know, title belt holder, whatever, you know, he's he's he's uh uh he backed up his Australian Open win with the Rotterdam title. He hasn't we haven't really even seen him be tested that aggressively. Uh So he's playing some super confident tennis right now. He's a factor. Like, don't overlook him.

He's doing he's doing the Nadal thing from two years ago. Remember Nadal was like eighteen or nineteen and oh before he lost to Fritz.

Yeah, yeah, I think he Fritz was the first loss of the season, that's right, yeah, yeah, and also some parallels because an All came back against Medvedev at the Australian Open vible right here down oh two he beat Medvedev very very similar parallels to center and his coming back from two against Medvedev in the Australian Up finals.

A good times. Man, Oh god, damn, you don't rewatch that.

It's amazing that great? Can we just say that out loud? Real big? Can I say something dorky and corny if you don't like and I'm sure if you're listening to this podcast you get it. But like for those who can't appreciate this sport, for like the combo of physical and mental fortitude, it's just fucking amazing. Like sometimes you watch this ship and you're like, I would, first of all stupid comparison because I'm talking about me, but like the knowledge that you would crumble like a house of cards in any of these situation. The fact that these guys just power through it, it's incredible.

Incredible, Yeah, they're playing.

Medvedev played more tennis in that tournament than any human has ever played in a tournament in history. Like he was effectively running a marathon every other day, with how many how far he was running, and how much time you spent on court at every step of the way, Like that was absurd.

Which brings us to Q two.

I guess as we're going up because I think bottom looks Bottom looks jockey to me, I think Q one and Q two we are where you're going to see some interesting, interesting stuff just because you have so much talent up there. My uh, you know, my general feeling for about Medvedev is like he was being a gigantic baby at Indian Wells.

Remember that year he was hated the court, So this is not hard the court. You call this hard court.

Yeah, but like ultimately that helped like kind of steal him mentally to play some of his better tennis i've ever seen him play there. And then he turned around and he won Miami impressively beating Center. But uh, you know, so so he'll he'll he will be a factor. But his path is tough. It's tough. It's tough, it's tough, and I think he did a good job of kind of really kind of giving himself a break after Australia, I really regroup physically. Uh, so he should be pretty fresh, and he should be the favorite in that quarter. But I don't think he's better ble at price. I think Nadal is absolutely live for Q two, and honestly, Nadal versus Medvedev, as you know what kind of late later stages of that quarter would be his must must watch, his must watch, It would be so good. The the Rune is not a factor right now at all. It's worth noting that you know kind of people who are along, you know, the tennis hardos.

Who have been with us for years. Gil.

Yes, I was very bullish on Rune ultimately getting to the same level where Center and Alcarez are now. And he may get there, we'll see. But he's going through like a super manic weird shit with his coaching team, with his approach to the game, with how many tournaments he's entering, with folk lack of focus, like like he just does not seem to have a grip on how to become a professional, which is a problem because like that's ultimately what really helped al Kraz and Center get to their stages of their career so quickly as young men, and Rene is just not on the same level at all. He still does have that psycho mentality that you need to be a slam winner, I think. But right now it's like a little it's like it's like unragined, right like it's out of control a little bit, and.

It's it's not serving him well.

And he's back with his old coach, Patrick Moritaglu, who ironically has a little bit of a weird, very weird announcement that they reunited kind of in the you know, kind of of immediate uh what do you call it? Uh uh appeal of Simona Hallup whose last uh you know, the last partnership who got busted for uh, you know, for performance dancing drugs, got suspended for years. Well that pill just got overturned. So Simona help was gonna be is going to be back in our lives relatively shortly.

Here. Every every tennis appeal on doping wins, by the.

Way everyone always does. I think they actually go wild, They go bananas with the penalties, knowing that they're going to get rolled back. But whatever the case, Uh, Simona Alps coming back more togglues no longer with Simona Alp. A lot of pointing your fingers to his camp from her camp, and you know, all that sort of stuff. But he's now with Rune and so who the heck knows what's going to go on there. But I don't think he's a factor here really at all. Uh and uh.

And then in Q one, I.

Think the name you know, you know, you mentioned that there's a couple of players who have kind of surprised to the good so far this year, really taking steps forward. Hugo's kind of at the top of that list. But I think you've seen some pretty important development positively from Casper Rude. Yes, he took he took a full he took a full off season, I think, and you know, did a nice job of kind of getting his mind in head right, in his game right, and he's gonna have a fun play season. I don't know if he makes any I don't think he makes any noise here upset s Jokovic and wins Q one or anything like that. But it's important to watch his game and see if he you know, see if you're seeing the same things I'm seeing.

Taylor Fritz is maybe the last comment.

Ritch's Q two.

He's in Q two, is in Q two you need to have two numbers for Taylor Fritz. If you're making numbers. You have a Taylor Fritz general number, and you have a Taylor Fritz is playing in California number.

Great because he's a different player.

He's a different player. I don't know what it is, but like, you know, there's a tongue in cheek joke in the golf Sharp community about like, oh, we gotta.

Bet this guy gets to sleep in his own EASi. This is his whole tournament.

He's got to sleep in his own bag.

Golf cad.

Yes, like like they they're they're, they're they're saying that, and I think they actually believe it.

I think they're making it, making fun.

But uh, for whatever reason, Fritz getting to sleep in his own bed being his own backyard because he's a Southern California kid. Uh. He plays his best tennis here period, Like his best numbers are at Indian Walls period. Uh. And so if he ultimately, you know, kind of surprises when's Q two, you shouldn't be shocked. But I think there's too much talent in there at the end of the day of that.

But let me do let me just do the raw data thing, like Carlitos novak Yanick Sitter Nadal, we'll throw n a doll out because he hasn't played, but Rube Leven Demetrov. Those are the only players on tour that have better raw date on hards than Fritz. Fritz is one oh six point five twelve months, one o seven point three six months, one to eight point four three months, Like his numbers are surprise ingly great, still on hearts. Yeah, so you're right, he loves this California stuff. He loves this tournament specifically.

Yeah, yeah, again, like you shouldn't be surprised if he does something awesome. I guess, and I don't really have Like I guess I shouldn't eat a little grow here like I thought Fritz did. Sort of the cardinal mistake or like kind of telegraph Sometimes it's just like a flat out mistake, and sometimes it's telegraphing when a player plays too many exhibitions in the space between the end of the last season and the start of the new season, because it's like, well, if I can get this money, like I need to strike while the iron's hot, right, and they're traveling all over the world and they're getting checks and they're you know, they're they're playing. But like you know, you probably should have just gone home and you know, just start, you know, trained and recouped and worked on your game, right. And that happened to Route a couple of seasons ago, and he was miserable coming into the next season, and it carried through all the way through the entire year. And I was worried that that was going to happen to Fritz because of the way he kind of took his off season a little frivolously, I thought. But he's he played better in Australia than I was prepared.

To give him.

He'd be exceeded my expectations, I guess I should say.

And you're right.

On hard court, he's a he's a dynamic player. You shouldn't expect him to do much on clay. Does move very well, but he is tall. He does have a bomb of serve and when it's timed well and when he's playing with confidence, he's a very dynamic player.

Is there any of these clay So the guys who have been playing on the clay Tour in South America here in the early part of the season, you know, my brain when I see them on the draw, a little part of me just kind of does a throw out with him. But if one of these guys does well here and again, it is the slowest of the hard course, right, And I'm talking about the Yaris exactly, those guys. Who's the guy of that group that you're like, actually, I could see this guy getting pretty far.

Yeah, none of those guys.

There's not thrown out there.

Some years, some years there's guys. Yeah, some years there's absolutely guys.

That you have circle and you're like, man, people don't realize how well that guy was actually playing down on the Golden Swing.

But this year was just chaos down there.

Man. I don't know what happened. I don't know what happened, but those tournaments were a hot mess.

Guy, you know those kind of guys.

Yeah.

Yeah.

The guy, the guy that's probably still a little underrated by market for twenty twenty four performance so far is probably demon hour Like he's not being rated as a top A player in the world, but I think he is right now.

And you know, I don't know how well he'll do here at Indian Wells.

He never really impressed me here in the past, and this could be fluky, you know, kind of just he's he is performing well at the early part of the season when everybody else is so warming up. But he's playing great tennis in twenty twenty four. So far he and Sinner the only two guys that beat Jokovic, Right, I believe.

That's the case. Yeah, I keep I keep refreshing stuff just to see if they've By the way, they didn't have a half bracket market in the on the men's side as they do with the women's what you talked about. I'm looking at first round matches we still have. We still don't have a schedule. We're doing this Drew and I at four pm, four oh five pm right now Pacific, the night before that, the afternoon before the tournament starts. I don't know if you glanced at any of the men's first round matches. Was there anything that, without having done a GP divelom that sort of leaps off the pay treo? Have you looked at all?

No? I think, uh, I'll just stick to sort of the high level macro thoughts here because I don't have any reads on the head to on the on the round one matches. But yeah, I think, you know, I'm maybe I'll feel silly in hindsight doing this but I'm going to bet some Nadal at price just because it's it's what you said third five to available out there, like he's good enough to win and you know this, you shouldn't.

You shouldn't. It's a tough draw for him. You got a very tough draw.

But he still does have the mental edge over everybody else in this tour. Uh And I think that, you know, like I don't have a read on what's going on with Djokovic, Right, so this again like file this away for just rampant speculation, right, but the way he treated his time between the Australia Open loss, which was should have been a little bit of alarm bells, right, like that lost the center was bad. Yeah, right, he looked he was That was like, oh, your career might be coming to an end here, buddy, Like you know, like this is the way you're going to play in late stages against the lead competition, like you're in trouble. And you know what has he done in the meantime, Like has he doubled down and kind of really focused to get his season started off on the right foot here in Wells. No, he's going to Laker games just to to trim it up with going to Yeah, he's skiing in the Alps, he's skiing in the uh, you know, he's skiing all over the world. Like like he he looks like a guy who's pretty content with where he is in uh, you know, in in the kind of pantheon of tennis. Uh and uh. My assumption is he's probably just going to take it easy into Wimbledon and then to try to take back that Wimbledon title and at that point, whatever else he gets the rest of his career is gravy. That's my that's my gut for what's going on with Jokovic. So I don't think you should be shocked if he has a little bit of a what was that kind of a moment here?

And then he was at U c l A most of this week playing there in addition to ten Lakers games.

He's like he's he's like goofing off. He's like, you know, he's he's And maybe that helps, like maybe playing with.

With a little less focus and a little less intensity, like he's having more fun, like that could ultimately be beneficial. And I could end up eating these words, but I think I'm pretty cold on Djokovic right now. As far as the rating goes relative to al Kras and Center, And I think the real bilow Is isn't a doll because Alcras and Center are going to have a potential war in that semi final on the bottom half, and one of those guys is going to limp through and have to take on that doll in the final, and that'll be fun.

Let me just do the nadull potential. Let's do the old potential path here, sure, just to sort of. Butcher's the thirty five to one here. So Milos Rawnich for those unfamiliar, serve bottish in most of his career.

But he's been Wimbledon finalists.

Yeah, we'll give him finalists.

Canadian twenty what will the year was that twenty sixteen?

It was a long time ago.

That was a pre Visa guy. Yeah, yeah, Milos, you know what you know who he is? He's boring, Nick curious.

He's boring. That's right, He's Canadian boring. Yes, that's right.

Yeah.

So he's got roundage in the first round and round it we thought would be retired one hundred times by now. Uh then it potential second round opponent would be Rune who you already said, you're not high on right here, like, yeah, imagine the uh the mental advantage there. Third round opponent would be Lorenzo Mussetti. I don't have a problem with that at all. Yeah, he's yeah, And in the fourth round would be Taylor.

Fritz, rematch of our final from two years ago.

It's right.

Quarters would be Medvedev as we mentioned, Yeah, incredible match.

Potentially Semis rematch of the Australian Open finals.

That's Rightei, Semis would be Novakan in the final would either be Carlitos or Center. But it's not the worst path early, let's put it that way.

Yeah, yeah, it's not. No, it's not, it's not. I think, and I think, you know, maybe there's a little cold water in there because people people still rate Rune. Yeah, SETI is if he even gets to that stage, I guess we'll give him, give him this flowers. But he's been a messes you yes, so yeah, I think No, I think I think the the nadolp Fritz, and then Medvedev and Djokovic potentially if if Djokovic you can gets there, because again somebody could pop them, we'll see. I think all of those are gonna be must watch matches. If if you're going to bet tennis on clay, you got to watch all of the top half of this drop playoffs.

Okay. If people want your picks, where do they go?

Drow Uh?

Well, we'll do multiple podcasts ye share uh and uh. If if I have anything that's extra extra super hot, I'll make sure to get it to you guys.

Okay, and we'll do numbers game appearances throughout this tournament. Again, it's a weekend for sure, week and a half of tennis. All of mine will be at Visa dot Com slash Picks, which I'll do daily and again just at a glance first round, I don't think I'm having a lot for it. But again I don't know how this shakes out beyond what's posted right now. Like I said, volnuts is the only thing that leaps off the page right now. Last question, then, unless I've missed anything, and again I we apologize because there I wish there were more markets out there. But hopefully a lot of this can give you food for the hypotheticals when these numbers come out. So if three players can win on the women's side, Ega Rebakna Sabolenka in your opinion.

Yeah, yeah, my official.

My official predictions are Ega to to one over Reba, Ega two zero over Sablanca on the women's side, I like, and then out on the men's side.

Uh, how many can win on the men's side, how many players can win this?

UHT eight.

Wait a minutelet's go hold on, hold on Novak, Carlitos.

Yeah.

Tier one is yeah. Tier one is Sinner and al Kraz and Djokovic. Tier two is Nadal uh Medvedev h Tailor. Fritz is in there for sure. Uh and then tier tier three For me of who can win this, I think you have to consider demon Auur and Read as well.

Sasha's very forget about it, He's not getting pay by Outcraz. I don't think.

I think the demon or Call is a very good one. Like I think he's that guy that if it was going to shock the average fan, that's the guy.

Yeah right, Uh, scam Nory not not not not the sort list.

But what I'm what I like though, is that you included Rude in Fritz because I wasn't sure you were going to the Taylor Friz thing needs to be said.

They could Okay, they could they could win this, they could win this. I guess my official. I'm gonna go with Nadal over Djokovic in semifinal one.

Wow, I'm gonna go.

I'm gonna go with Center over Autcraz and semifinal two.

And I'll take Nadal over ciner Bro.

That would be fucking fantastic.

Yes, so cool cool?

Uh Drew? I love you, man, and this might be your finest performance because now you said they they stopped the the ski lift stopped, but still you got off the slip.

I gotta get I gotta go get my app race ski on man, Fondue's waiting for me.

Oh op ray ski gotta do it. How long are you there for? I'll be here all week okay, so you so you may you will be back for the weekend though if you said Indian Wells maybe okay.

Yeah, I'll be I'll be back back because the pro move.

Okay, here's you want some more plus ev please advantage play move. If you're gonna go on, if you're gonna go to the trouble of like going to a resort for a skiing vacation, you want to ski Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.

And not Saturday Sunday.

There is no reason to wait in the lines when you have the weekend Warriors out there.

So yeah, that's that's our go to. We get in on Monday, we leave on Friday, and.

And probably your your run percentage is cut like below half, right if you try do it?

For sure? Yeah, okay, if there's lines, if there's lines, forget about it, forget it.

Not worth it. Drew dinsic everybody out whale underscore Capper again, the podcast are the Deep Dive podcast, didn't say classic, which he does with any Molletzer, and then NBC Sports Bet the Edge when she does with Jay Croucher. Both phenomenal in their own ways. We can't I can't thank you enough. Man, this is awesome. We will not only do numbers game appearances, but as far as tennis podcasts are concerned, we'll reconvene for the French Dan Weston has pledged to join us. He's on the recovery, he's in France. He said he's eighty to ninety percent. He'll be with us for the French Open, So I look.

Forward to that.

Yeah, that's worth your time.

Double dip on on French clay because the Olympics are going to be there too.

Oh they're playing.

The Olympic tennis is on clay this year at rolling Ghos.

You know that Olympic tennis is on clay. Yeah, of course it is, because it's in Paris. Just for everybody else who doesn't know your background, you also you also are a huge swimming guy, right like you handicap swimming. Well, I think we lost Drew right at the end, did we lose you? I mean, oh, okay, all right, we were about to leave anyway, But you can reconnect with him. Yeah. So Drew's other big thing besides tennis and the NBA and you know the NFL. Obviously those are the obvious ones. He's a monster swimming better. So when it comes to the Olympics this year in Paris, not only we will get his thoughts on tennis itself, which is just mentioned as all clay, but we will also talk swimming with Drew, who I don't know if we can reconnect with him or not, but nonetheless, his phone died. His phone died. We're good, we got enough. Thank you for listening. Good luck with all your Indian wells. Bets again, all of my plays will be at VSA dot com, slash picts or subscribers, But if you are listening to a Numbers game on VS ten to noon Eastern seven to nine am Pacific Monday through Friday, I will give those out on air too, because none of the matches will have started that early in the morning, so you can tune in that way. You don't have to be a subscriber, just between you and me to get the picks for Indian Wells Tennis's de facto fifth Major. Thank you for listening, Good luck with all your plays.