With the House of Representatives returning to Washington after August recess, the likelihood of a government shutdown -- only 20% in our view -- led Bloomberg Intelligence's Aug. 31 Washington Policy Pulse. The House will most likely embrace a Senate deal that extends the government funding until Dec. 11 before leaving town to further campaign ahead of the midterm elections. A potential vote on a separate measure on a Russian sanctions package will likely be pushed back until after the election.

We also discussed President Donald Trump's announcement of a deal in Venezuela to have the US take a stake in Venezuela's oil fields. Analysis from BI's energy team suggest that while Chevron may embrace the deal, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil may be more hesitant. We also previewed a forthcoming meeting with energy executives at the White House on Sept. 2.

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