Understanding China-Philippines' dangerous South China Sea face-offs

Aggression from China is driving Manila and Washington closer, spurring a loose coalition against Beijing.

Synopsis: Every third and fourth Friday of the month, The Straits Times' global contributor Nirmal Ghosh shines a light on Asian perspectives of global and Asian issues with expert guests.

Despite talks between China and the Philippines regarding resupply of the small contingent of Philippine marines aboard the World War II era ship Sierra Madre which Manila had grounded on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in 1999, tensions remain high in the South China Sea.

In the latest incident, Chinese and Philippine Coast Guard vessels collided near Sabina Shoal, a disputed feature in the Spratly Islands, in the early hours of Monday, Aug 19. The vessels were damaged and though there were no casualties, Washington responded by reminding Beijing of the US's 73-year-old Mutual Defense Treaty with Manila.

China claims most of the 1.3 million square miles of the South China Sea, including the Second Thomas Shoal, where Philippine vessels must run the gauntlet of a de facto Chinese blockade to resupply the marines on the Sierra Madre.

The United States however, also needs to maintain a fine balance, being careful not to be too provocative and back China into a corner, says Indo-Pacific security expert Lisa Curtis, former top US official and now Senior Fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, DC.

Ms Curtis has served as deputy assistant to the US President under three successive national security advisors. She has 20 years of service in the US government including at the National Security Council, the CIA, the State Department, and Capitol Hill, specialising in the Indo-Pacific and South Asia.

Ms Curtis guests on this episode of Asian Insider alongside Filipina writer Marites Vitug, a longtime investigative journalist and author of several books including the 2018 Rock Solid: How the Philippines Won Its Maritime Case Against China, and most recently, the just-released, co-authored Unrequited Love : Duterte's China Embrace which explores the various aspects of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's appeasement of China.

Highlights (click/tap above):

3:25 Why (former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte) hated the US and still dislikes it

5:07 How far the US-Philippines relationship has progressed under President Marcos

9:20 Why it would be helpful if there is more engagement between the Philippines and the Quad

12:49 Provocative air manoeuvres; Chinese shooting flares right in front of the Philippines’ aircraft - is this a test of the resolve of the Philippines and the US?

14:26 A lot of domestic support for Marcos' shift in foreign policy; how South China Sea could be a likely conflict zone besides Taiwan Strait

17:34 Why the Marcos government should make clear to the US, what kind of help they want

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Produced by: Nirmal Ghosh (nirmal@sph.com.sg) and Fa’izah Sani

Edited by: Fa’izah Sani

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