Military analyst Mike Lyons joins Jack Armstrong to talk about the US strategy against the growing military & cyber strength of China.
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From the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Show Jetty Armstrong and Jetty Show. President Biden is praising US intelligence workers while also warning them not to underestimate Chinese President He is deadly earnest I'm not becoming the most powerful military force in the world as well as the largest and most prominent economy in the world. Today, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin clarified the Pentagon's position. You know, a conflict with China. We recognize that we will compete. So we're gonna talk to Mike Lions a little bit about China and other things. Mike Lines is our go to military analysts, served with all kinds of military organizations in both the United States and Europe throughout his career. Um was commander during Operation Desert Shield and Desert Storm, Award of the Bronze Star for his actions in combat. Also has a Bachelor Science degree from West Point and we love talking to him about all things military. Mike leins, welcome to the show. A great to be back with you. You know, before we get into the details of the military stuff, and it's more that's more technical and things you can predict how much of how much of military strategy is trying to read somebody's personality like president and I shouldn't even call him president, dictator she and trying to figure out is he the kind of guy that would try to move on, move on Taiwan or not? Yeah, it's you know, rational leader theory. It happens all the time in foreign policy and how diplomats try to you know, when they put together their deals. So, but from the military's perspective, you have to consider all possibilities from the worst possible things. He launches a first strike nuclear attack too, he sits back and does nothing and lets us basically wind up our military and put it into position where it can do something. So the military has got a tougher job because again has to take in all those scenarios where when you're sitting across the table as a diplomat you just have to look at and say, well, as he rational, is he going to be rational and trying negotiate from there? Are you comfortable making a read on him or are you not comfortable without having more information? Oh? No, I think he's definitely very aggressive moving forward. I mean, what he's done in the South China. See in the past five years, he's you know, built missile basis. He didn't build condos. He's not moving people out there into those places. Another report came out in the New York Times that shows nuclear sights and some of their deserts in the in the western part of China that will clearly threaten Europe. These i cb ms fundamentally can be can hit the United States. Um, they need to be part of any future Russia US nuclear proliferation Uh, you know treaty uh that that that have that have since expired. Right now, I mean there's real threat that that there's an arms race taking place. And it's not just the US and Russia. It's not the U S and China and Russia. Well, since you brought up Russian and we'll get back to China. Second, they announced last week that they've got a supersonic weapon that that that that that they say are our technology can't stop a missile and a new plane that matches our best stuff. Are you worried about that? You know, I'm not. I mean those are kind of fire once and in some ways fire and forget that none of them are really into the world weapons. I mean, the existential threats still remains the undred nuclear tip warheads that could be fired from their their launch sites inside of Russia. They could decide to move their people into two bunkers to try to prevent anything that would happen on the way back if we decided to respond. The existential threat is really that as opposed to any kind of one of one or two one off weapons they might create. It might create havoc or so, and will eventually come up some way to fight against it, but it can't be mass produced and it won't be something that will affect over the long run miclines military analysts. So back to China. It troubled me. I was watching the opening ceremony the Olympics with my son, and they don't call Taiwan Taiwan in the Olympics. They call it the Chinese Republic of Taipei or something like that, And I thought, wow, So the world bends over backwards to uh to go with the language that China wants because they don't consider Taiwan a country. Yeah, the more you see things out there from project that this is where this great you know nation battle is going to take place. Um, there was a recent war game that took place but last year again US versus China over Time one. It took place well into the future ten years, and we got our butts kicked in it. And you know, again, war games are it happens all the time and it's not that not that big a deal in some ways. But what's the big deal is that they released the results of it. Usually these are classified and they keep these things in close hold. Um. And that's because we kind of fought the normal way we normally fight, and that's we kind of wind up our military. And you look at the last two wars we wound up. You know, the Desert Storm, we took five months, we brought all the troops there, and even Iraq we wound up in the troops there. China's not gonna let any of that happen. China's gonna come after us, initially first with a cyber attack that will knock all our command and control out, and then they'll they're gonna go after our carriers. They go right through our navy right away. So this was no match in this war game that took place in the Air Force run. And maybe you they didn't lean towards the Navy like they should have. But but I think there's no question China is gonna fight differently than anyone we haven't seen since, you know, really the Second World War. Wow, that is troubling stuff. So I taken a lot of podcasts about this stuff, and um, it seems to me that the Biden administration, the Obama administration kind of tried it, and Trump tried it, and Biden's going further with it, just like saying, Okay, the hell of the Middle East, we gotta focus on China. And so getting into position, like you call it winding up, Um, getting into positions so that there's a deterrent that China want. The best way to win the war the battle for Taiwan is to make it clear to China that it wouldn't be easy to do. So we're trying to focus that direction. Is at what we're doing exactly. There's an article written by a congressman and you're out talk to me about you know, prepared now for this war that's going to take place in the Pacific. It's not theory. I mean, it's really gonna be. And you know, again in Desert Storm and in the first I Rock, we found up, we had the opportunity to move hundreds of thousands of troops to the region. Um, they did nothing. I'll take a quick story. We were in August of sitting in the conference room watching the twenty fourth Evertry Division come off their boats, their ships and and being deployed inside of Saudi Arabia. How the Iraqis attacked them and destroyed that division while they were in the port. Basically, Um, the Middle East looks completely different and would have taken a Sunday, say four years to get back a foothold on. So they just didn't do anything. And that's the point. The Iraqis had that capability, but they just did. Call it God's call whatever you want to do it. But the Chinese will. The Chinese will do that. They'll they'll go after They'll sink a carrier with five thousand sailors on it and go on to the next one. They won't think anything of it. And I think that's that's the difference between this enemy versus previous enemies we've had over the past thirty years. While in their ability with their population and just their their their attitude, their nationalism, uh their ability to absorb losses is anything unlike you know, certainly anything of the Western powers would do. Yeah, yeah, I mean again, the first attack comes cyber, they're gonna blind us, they'll shut our command and control down. That where this war game failed was they did that. And we have a lot of joint things. We have a lot of sexy technology that kind of connects a lot of dots and you know, if you find a target on one side of the battlefield and then it allows that to be communicated to the group that's over there. Well, if you shut that all that stuff down, that side doesn't see it, um, then the threats are just they just keep magnifying. And that that's what this war game showed. And again the fact that they released this tells me that they're concerned about it um and that they're going to start moving and changing certain things and and and bring different people into different leaders in because we're gonna have to fight a very different war like likely within the next ten years. And I hate to stay that. I got a son of the Navy, believe me, I'm not I'm not looking to advocate for that. But this is what this is, what the world is as as it currently is outlined, and who knows, maybe we won't even fight for time wine when the time comes, who knows? Who knows what the exactly? Yeah, and that the world would look different the day we make that decision. Yeah for sure. Um yeah, we want to be this specific power. We want to be this power. We're gonna have to reallocate a lot of those resources towards these strategic weapons. We're gonna have to do better in space. We're gonna have to become more resilient in our in our cyber and and we're gonna have to have a navy that's going to be able to protect air field and protected carriers from what's going to be a very nasty Chinese threat of missiles and all kinds of technology that they have that other our enemies didn't have in the past. It's so hard to wrap your head around. I think for most people, the idea of a country attacking is it's just it's been so long and it's been so unlikely most of everybody's lives that it just seems like, well, nobody would ever do that. We're the big bad you know, there were there were the big bad bully. Nobody would ever do that. But the time will come I mean, the history of the world is the history of the world, and the time will come when somebody takes a shot. Yeah, Jack, And you're right. And the bottom line is, this is still in away game for us, right, I mean, we still have to deploy these resources eight nine, twelve time zones from from here in order to get that done. Um. And but the Chinese again, or or the type that could do that and could reach us here in the US and could reach us on the West coast and the East coast and go after our cities. Are we willing to trade off Taiwan for New York City, for Atlanta for Los Angeles San Francisco. I'm not sure. I don't know what an American president does. We made bad assumptions in this in this war game. We didn't assume that they would nobody would use nuclear weapons. I think that's a bad assumstances good The newly Midway has got a great example of what happened with the Japanese. Tried to G two and figure out what's gonna happen at Midway before and they made the Japanese American side fight a certain way, and they fought. They didn't fight the way the Americans were going they wanted to fight because they were losing and they just didn't want to see it that way. And that's the question here. We have to become much more open as to what what's the realm of possibilities and be ready for that that scenario. Man, that's fascinating stuff. I'm just the kind of guy. I could talk to you about that all day long, but we are out of time. Mic Lions. We always appreciate your time. We'll link your Twitter account to ours end. People should follow you. Great check, Thanks very much, thank you. Yeah, you talk about something that we can't imagine. We just can't imagine that another country would actually ever use nuclear weapons. Well, it's gonna happen someday, and you have to be prepared for it. And you know, every indication from Winnie the Pooh over there in China is that he's held bent on, you know, becoming the dominant force in the world. Um, what's the old saying when somebody you know tells you who they are, believe him that sort of thing, or shows you who they are, believe him. That's what she's doing. He's showing, He's telling everybody, he's showing the world who he is. We need to believe him