The Armstrong and Getty show, no idea was it's ludicrous. As far as Afghanistan withdrawal, I'm glad to see us moving up. I think a random withdrawal just because you're celebrating an anniversary is not the right decision. If we're ready to go, then I'll be supportive. If we're not ready to go, I'll be making that very clear. As reaction to the announcement yesterday that we're pulling out of Afghanistan on the twentieth anniversary of nine eleven, which seems weird, but that's just one oh by the way, Colin Powell said yesterday, and obviously he was um Secretary of State at the beginning of the War of the Second warn Iraq Uh he say, I'd say we've done all we can do about Afghanistan. What are those troops being told they're there for? It's time to bring it to an end. That is a pretty good question. What would you tell the troops are there for? But that's just one of the many military challenges that we've got around the world. One of the one of the reasons we are leaving Afghanists Stan, I think, is Russia, China, iran other problems that we have, and David French wrote a column yesterday. I'm asking whether or not we're living in a moment, that period of calm before the unexpected shattering nine eleven storm, that we might be entering another era of great power conflict, arguably unlike anything we've experienced in more than a generation. I hope he's wrong, but he certainly may be right. Let's talk to my clients military analyst about that. Mike served the United States military in both the US and Europe and Iraq with great distinction. He has been an analyst for CBS, among other folks, and enjoins us. Now, Mike, how are you, sir? Think that's great to be back with you all good, Well, thanks, it's been too long and it's a real pleasure to talk to you. So a little hypothetical here. If you were the Secretary of Defense and you were posed with the situation in on the Ukrainian border with Plute Putin, You've got China acting up. Iran is a problem as usual, UM Afghanistan. Which your meeting do you schedule first in the morning to make sure everybody's on the same page. Which feels the most urgent to you. I think it's China only because they have the most metal resources right now that are focused in all the different facets of warfare and cyber as well as things on the ground in Hong Kong, Taiwan and places and what's what's happening there and events to take place in China with the Olympics coming up. So I think, UM, that is clearly the number one now tactically on the ground. What's happening in Russia is not good either with Ukraine, UM, but I think that's going to be a regional conflict. One of the advantages of the United States has right now is the president that's just not an interventionalist. So you know, you guys are talking about David French about the moment that might be the case. But the question is whether or not we're attacked on the homeland. I don't think that will happen. The question is will be posed as to whether we'll get involved, NATO get involved if something happens in Ukraine and Russia. But but the the bottom line is China is still the greatest threat that we still have strategically as an emergent power. Boy, where do we start, UM, China? If China were to move on Taiwan in some manner, do we honor our agreement we've had since nineteen seventy nine, Do we have to can we? Yeah, it's naval power will will rule a day there, and China think that they can actually hold their own in any kind of naval engagement with us, based on how they've built their navy. UM. I think I wouldn't call it a nine ten moment. I'd call it maybe a ninety nine moment, where at that point in the time, the world thought that the French army was the greatest in the world, and no one thought anything about the Germans. Um. You know, the Chinese are if you look at their commercials, you look at what they're advertising, what they do. They get up every day and they think they're going to have a war with someone. And so if they're going to do that, they're not going to be afraid to go after us with um, you know, even with our nable resources there. So it's gonna take our allies to the Australians and others within the regions of the Japanese. But the bottom line is, I think if we if we have that conflict that takes place on the sea, and our navy is gonna get tested very mightily. Yeah, well, especially because when I know you know this better than we do. But it's a lot easier to defend a position than to retake it. And and Taiwan is to China like Martha's Vineyard is to the United States. I mean, it's it's right off their coast. Yeah. Yeah, And it would be a situation potentially like destroying it to save it, which doesn't you know that's again Korean war mentality as well. So um, it's just it's hard to say there's not you know, there as an as a ground guy though there's no other opposing fourth that exists inside of Taiwan, so it would be taken very simply. The question is, you know what happens, then what are the countries of the world do? Then? I think nothing. I think there's certain they're sort of fat to completes that are out there right now, and that's one. The second one is probably the don Vast region of Ukraine, and it's going to get closer to Russia. We know that they already control Crimea. So I think these are all FATA completes. Whether or not the world wants to get involved. And again, Joe Biden is not an at events and list, so I don't see him getting involved. Wow, Okay, I was just gonna ask before we get back into specifics, let's let's do a little You're you're teaching a college class, and in the topic today is mutual defense agreements? Are that sort of thing? We have the treaty with the Taiwan, We have a treaty through NATO with Ukraine. Are those things worth the parchment they're written on? Really? Well, they were when they were signed, you know, some of them thirty years ago and beyond. But today they have not been updated. We haven't updated our strategic limitations trees and and and the like. They've all expired. And the countries that sign those trees aren't the same as they worked it. The only one really is is the United States. UM. NATO would have to mobilize pretty significantly if it wanted to go in and defend Ukraine. I don't think it's a good idea to put NATO anywhere near Ukraine. UM, that's right on the border of Russia. I mean, we can't have admission and TORNATO being everybody except Russia. That's just not gonna work. That's gonna That's the same reason how World War One started, where history repeats itself all over again. So I think that while that was a great idea back in the nineties as they split away from the old Soviet Union, the bottom line is Russia can pretty much have its way in Ukraine. We all know that. Everybody knows that, and if anything, and I think Plutin knows that, Joe Biden is not an interventionalist, which is why he's been moving towards what he's doing in Ukraine right now. Well, that's why I really wanted to have you on, is because you can speak to and having the past on whether or not we can do something. So whether or not we should, you know, falls by the wayside. If someone like you says we can't. The world can't stop this from happening, so why discuss it, right. Simulations show that there's over four hundred thousand Russian troops that are in proximity closer in proximity of the Ukraine border that if they decided to roll into Ukraine and even keep going further further west, they could take virtually western Europe again in sixty hours. That's five days or whatever. I mean, live with the mass on that. It's to the point where, yeah, and the only thing holding it back is US nuclear weapons. And the question is whether or not we would fire them, because then then we start we open up that pendor to box and so we really don't have that that strategic deterrence at the tactical level. We have it at the strategic level. We have it, you know, in in in space and destroying each other's countries. But are we willing to give up an east coast city just to protect Ukraine? And I'm not I'm not sure we're gonna be boiling to do that. Military analysts Mike Lions on the line. Mike, so you're saying Russia could sweep across Europe, I mean, take Poland and Romania, Slovakia, whatever, and and head toward Germany in the space of five days. Yes, yeah, exactly, that's the stimulation. And they would do it with Russian forces plus the private military companies, the Wagner groups, the ones that the little green men so to speak, that they have mobilized. Now whether they could hold it, you know, again, we create a World War two scenario where just like the Germans going to Russian and then they get beat back there. They would eventually be beaten back. It would be tremendous destruction. Millions and millions of people are killed. They couldn't hold it, but they can sure create tremendous amount of destruction there, that's for sure. And think do you think Putin has the slightest interest in anything like that. He's got interest in Ukraine. I think that his desire is to return that in his lifetime. Right, so he's now elected till six and so he's got them. We've got to think that the world believes that Russia has a declining power. But as soon as the Germans and the Russians connect that gas pipeline together and they know whether the Germans completely relying on Russia, I just don't. That doesn't fall into place for me as well. They're not a declining power. They have nuclear weapons as well, they can threaten the United States. I think he's gonna want at least get Ukraine back and put Ukraine back in that what he calls the former Soviet Union. Well back to China, which is a similar sort of argument. And you know the Chinese officials at some level may hear this very interview where they hear somebody like you say it's fade a complete you know, more or less. Wouldn't be worth it for us to try to stop China from taking Taiwan because that's going to be the calculation on their part, right whether or not we're willing to to to really go to war over it, and I don't think we probably are. We're not, and and it would cement China's role as they want to be the priminente or in the Pacific. What is the day what does the world look like the day after China has taken Taiwan and we say to Taiwan, sorry, I know we have an agreement to you know, to protect you, but we're just we're not. Yeah. No. It's then a lot of other of our alliances, a lot of other things get called on the question. I think, um, I do believe already some of our this is not Donald Trump's fault, but some of our alliances in NATO, for example, are tired of the United States politics anyway. They're they're looking at the fact that things change every four years. I mean, let's look at why we're coming out of Afghanistan, you know, Trump, let's face it, he wanted to do this before the military wouldn't let him do it. He said the data first, he thought he was going to be president, he thought it was going to happen. What Biden do? He basically keeps the same plan, again showing me he's not an interventional This keeps the same plan. He just puts it on an AT eleven anniversary, which again I think is dumb as well, because there's too many other things going on that day. But the bottom lines, we're coming out of Afghanistan, so we're gonna find out what happened. Then we'll see what's gonna fill that back in. Well, final question for me, Well, and and this is the speculation, obviously, but we understand that, Well, what do you figure the chances are that we're exchanging ordinance with a nation state anytime soon, as opposed to a non governmental terrorist organization or something like that, which is going on as we speak. Many Americans forget that we're in dozens of countries, but a state act, right, I don't think it's for a while. I think if anything happens first, sequentially Russia goes first into Ukraine before China does anything into Taiwan, um, although we've got more of a chance diplomatically to try to fend off what's gonna happen in China. I think that's gonna happen first, and if that does happen, we do nothing. Now we've already been warned. We try. We're moving ships into the Black Sea. We're trying to again project our power there. It's not gonna matter because even if even if we get them there were they're still gonna do what they're gonna do. My clients military analyst Mike Fabulous is always we really appreciated. Great to talk to you, great, thanks for having me. It's so weird in our current world of media to talk to somebody who's so plane spoken about the facts. It's not what he wants at all, I guarantee it. He doesn't want this reality, but it's the freaking reality. So he just lays it out as this is what is and it's not through some sort of ridiculous, childish partisan lens either. I'm gonna I don't believe America backs down from anyone, you know, as the sort of reaction you get from some quarters. What does that that has nothing to do with reality? He's saying the world can't stop Russia from doing that short of a nuclear war. The world is not going to stop China from doing what they want to do short of a nuclear war. They're just not. This is why President's age like dogs. And this is why I'm grateful that we have such a vital young man in the office right now. Oh wait a minute, that was back to the partisanship to tell you what either one or both of those events happen over the next five ten years. The world is a different place than it was for the past seventy by a lot. Change is the only constant Jack, Did you know that? Yeah, I mean it's inevitable. United States wasn't gonna, you know, get to do whatever it wanted wherever it wanted forever. But it looks like those days are over. Wow, that's sobering.

The Armstrong and Getty show, no idea was it's ludicrous. As far as Afghanistan withdrawal, I'm glad to see us moving up. I think a random withdrawal just because you're celebrating an anniversary is not the right decision. If we're ready to go, then I'll be supportive. If we're not ready to go, I'll be making that very clear. As reaction to the announcement yesterday that we're pulling out of Afghanistan on the twentieth anniversary of nine eleven, which seems weird, but that's just one oh by the way, Colin Powell said yesterday, and obviously he was um Secretary of State at the beginning of the War of the Second warn Iraq Uh he say, I'd say we've done all we can do about Afghanistan. What are those troops being told they're there for? It's time to bring it to an end. That is a pretty good question. What would you tell the troops are there for? But that's just one of the many military challenges that we've got around the world. One of the one of the reasons we are leaving Afghanists Stan, I think, is Russia, China, iran other problems that we have, and David French wrote a column yesterday. I'm asking whether or not we're living in a moment, that period of calm before the unexpected shattering nine eleven storm, that we might be entering another era of great power conflict, arguably unlike anything we've experienced in more than a generation. I hope he's wrong, but he certainly may be right. Let's talk to my clients military analyst about that. Mike served the United States military in both the US and Europe and Iraq with great distinction. He has been an analyst for CBS, among other folks, and enjoins us. Now, Mike, how are you, sir? Think that's great to be back with you all good, Well, thanks, it's been too long and it's a real pleasure to talk to you. So a little hypothetical here. If you were the Secretary of Defense and you were posed with the situation in on the Ukrainian border with Plute Putin, You've got China acting up. Iran is a problem as usual, UM Afghanistan. Which your meeting do you schedule first in the morning to make sure everybody's on the same page. Which feels the most urgent to you. I think it's China only because they have the most metal resources right now that are focused in all the different facets of warfare and cyber as well as things on the ground in Hong Kong, Taiwan and places and what's what's happening there and events to take place in China with the Olympics coming up. So I think, UM, that is clearly the number one now tactically on the ground. What's happening in Russia is not good either with Ukraine, UM, but I think that's going to be a regional conflict. One of the advantages of the United States has right now is the president that's just not an interventionalist. So you know, you guys are talking about David French about the moment that might be the case. But the question is whether or not we're attacked on the homeland. I don't think that will happen. The question is will be posed as to whether we'll get involved, NATO get involved if something happens in Ukraine and Russia. But but the the bottom line is China is still the greatest threat that we still have strategically as an emergent power. Boy, where do we start, UM, China? If China were to move on Taiwan in some manner, do we honor our agreement we've had since nineteen seventy nine, Do we have to can we? Yeah, it's naval power will will rule a day there, and China think that they can actually hold their own in any kind of naval engagement with us, based on how they've built their navy. UM. I think I wouldn't call it a nine ten moment. I'd call it maybe a ninety nine moment, where at that point in the time, the world thought that the French army was the greatest in the world, and no one thought anything about the Germans. Um. You know, the Chinese are if you look at their commercials, you look at what they're advertising, what they do. They get up every day and they think they're going to have a war with someone. And so if they're going to do that, they're not going to be afraid to go after us with um, you know, even with our nable resources there. So it's gonna take our allies to the Australians and others within the regions of the Japanese. But the bottom line is, I think if we if we have that conflict that takes place on the sea, and our navy is gonna get tested very mightily. Yeah, well, especially because when I know you know this better than we do. But it's a lot easier to defend a position than to retake it. And and Taiwan is to China like Martha's Vineyard is to the United States. I mean, it's it's right off their coast. Yeah. Yeah, And it would be a situation potentially like destroying it to save it, which doesn't you know that's again Korean war mentality as well. So um, it's just it's hard to say there's not you know, there as an as a ground guy though there's no other opposing fourth that exists inside of Taiwan, so it would be taken very simply. The question is, you know what happens, then what are the countries of the world do? Then? I think nothing. I think there's certain they're sort of fat to completes that are out there right now, and that's one. The second one is probably the don Vast region of Ukraine, and it's going to get closer to Russia. We know that they already control Crimea. So I think these are all FATA completes. Whether or not the world wants to get involved. And again, Joe Biden is not an at events and list, so I don't see him getting involved. Wow, Okay, I was just gonna ask before we get back into specifics, let's let's do a little You're you're teaching a college class, and in the topic today is mutual defense agreements? Are that sort of thing? We have the treaty with the Taiwan, We have a treaty through NATO with Ukraine. Are those things worth the parchment they're written on? Really? Well, they were when they were signed, you know, some of them thirty years ago and beyond. But today they have not been updated. We haven't updated our strategic limitations trees and and and the like. They've all expired. And the countries that sign those trees aren't the same as they worked it. The only one really is is the United States. UM. NATO would have to mobilize pretty significantly if it wanted to go in and defend Ukraine. I don't think it's a good idea to put NATO anywhere near Ukraine. UM, that's right on the border of Russia. I mean, we can't have admission and TORNATO being everybody except Russia. That's just not gonna work. That's gonna That's the same reason how World War One started, where history repeats itself all over again. So I think that while that was a great idea back in the nineties as they split away from the old Soviet Union, the bottom line is Russia can pretty much have its way in Ukraine. We all know that. Everybody knows that, and if anything, and I think Plutin knows that, Joe Biden is not an interventionalist, which is why he's been moving towards what he's doing in Ukraine right now. Well, that's why I really wanted to have you on, is because you can speak to and having the past on whether or not we can do something. So whether or not we should, you know, falls by the wayside. If someone like you says we can't. The world can't stop this from happening, so why discuss it, right. Simulations show that there's over four hundred thousand Russian troops that are in proximity closer in proximity of the Ukraine border that if they decided to roll into Ukraine and even keep going further further west, they could take virtually western Europe again in sixty hours. That's five days or whatever. I mean, live with the mass on that. It's to the point where, yeah, and the only thing holding it back is US nuclear weapons. And the question is whether or not we would fire them, because then then we start we open up that pendor to box and so we really don't have that that strategic deterrence at the tactical level. We have it at the strategic level. We have it, you know, in in in space and destroying each other's countries. But are we willing to give up an east coast city just to protect Ukraine? And I'm not I'm not sure we're gonna be boiling to do that. Military analysts Mike Lions on the line. Mike, so you're saying Russia could sweep across Europe, I mean, take Poland and Romania, Slovakia, whatever, and and head toward Germany in the space of five days. Yes, yeah, exactly, that's the stimulation. And they would do it with Russian forces plus the private military companies, the Wagner groups, the ones that the little green men so to speak, that they have mobilized. Now whether they could hold it, you know, again, we create a World War two scenario where just like the Germans going to Russian and then they get beat back there. They would eventually be beaten back. It would be tremendous destruction. Millions and millions of people are killed. They couldn't hold it, but they can sure create tremendous amount of destruction there, that's for sure. And think do you think Putin has the slightest interest in anything like that. He's got interest in Ukraine. I think that his desire is to return that in his lifetime. Right, so he's now elected till six and so he's got them. We've got to think that the world believes that Russia has a declining power. But as soon as the Germans and the Russians connect that gas pipeline together and they know whether the Germans completely relying on Russia, I just don't. That doesn't fall into place for me as well. They're not a declining power. They have nuclear weapons as well, they can threaten the United States. I think he's gonna want at least get Ukraine back and put Ukraine back in that what he calls the former Soviet Union. Well back to China, which is a similar sort of argument. And you know the Chinese officials at some level may hear this very interview where they hear somebody like you say it's fade a complete you know, more or less. Wouldn't be worth it for us to try to stop China from taking Taiwan because that's going to be the calculation on their part, right whether or not we're willing to to to really go to war over it, and I don't think we probably are. We're not, and and it would cement China's role as they want to be the priminente or in the Pacific. What is the day what does the world look like the day after China has taken Taiwan and we say to Taiwan, sorry, I know we have an agreement to you know, to protect you, but we're just we're not. Yeah. No. It's then a lot of other of our alliances, a lot of other things get called on the question. I think, um, I do believe already some of our this is not Donald Trump's fault, but some of our alliances in NATO, for example, are tired of the United States politics anyway. They're they're looking at the fact that things change every four years. I mean, let's look at why we're coming out of Afghanistan, you know, Trump, let's face it, he wanted to do this before the military wouldn't let him do it. He said the data first, he thought he was going to be president, he thought it was going to happen. What Biden do? He basically keeps the same plan, again showing me he's not an interventional This keeps the same plan. He just puts it on an AT eleven anniversary, which again I think is dumb as well, because there's too many other things going on that day. But the bottom lines, we're coming out of Afghanistan, so we're gonna find out what happened. Then we'll see what's gonna fill that back in. Well, final question for me, Well, and and this is the speculation, obviously, but we understand that, Well, what do you figure the chances are that we're exchanging ordinance with a nation state anytime soon, as opposed to a non governmental terrorist organization or something like that, which is going on as we speak. Many Americans forget that we're in dozens of countries, but a state act, right, I don't think it's for a while. I think if anything happens first, sequentially Russia goes first into Ukraine before China does anything into Taiwan, um, although we've got more of a chance diplomatically to try to fend off what's gonna happen in China. I think that's gonna happen first, and if that does happen, we do nothing. Now we've already been warned. We try. We're moving ships into the Black Sea. We're trying to again project our power there. It's not gonna matter because even if even if we get them there were they're still gonna do what they're gonna do. My clients military analyst Mike Fabulous is always we really appreciated. Great to talk to you, great, thanks for having me. It's so weird in our current world of media to talk to somebody who's so plane spoken about the facts. It's not what he wants at all, I guarantee it. He doesn't want this reality, but it's the freaking reality. So he just lays it out as this is what is and it's not through some sort of ridiculous, childish partisan lens either. I'm gonna I don't believe America backs down from anyone, you know, as the sort of reaction you get from some quarters. What does that that has nothing to do with reality? He's saying the world can't stop Russia from doing that short of a nuclear war. The world is not going to stop China from doing what they want to do short of a nuclear war. They're just not. This is why President's age like dogs. And this is why I'm grateful that we have such a vital young man in the office right now. Oh wait a minute, that was back to the partisanship to tell you what either one or both of those events happen over the next five ten years. The world is a different place than it was for the past seventy by a lot. Change is the only constant Jack, Did you know that? Yeah, I mean it's inevitable. United States wasn't gonna, you know, get to do whatever it wanted wherever it wanted forever. But it looks like those days are over. Wow, that's sobering.