It's been a week since I was on the radio.

It's been one of the worst weeks in New Zealand as Cyclone Gabrielle did its worst in areas that were not expecting it.

There's much to talk about the present but talk has started about the future.

To fix our battered country up is going to take a lot of money. 13 billion was Grant Robertson's first forecast.

Where do we find that? Over summer I was bailed up by a grandfather who felt for his grandchildren who were being lumbered with a crippling debt because of this bloody socialist government.

I said the debt is not that bad in reality. This weekend Stephen Toplis the BNZ economist talked about our current debt to GDP target of 21.4%. Currently we're about 30 percent.

Now to give you some context on that debt. Japan tops the list at over 250% debt to GDP, The United States is around 120%, Canada 110%, the UK at 100%.  Now sure, these are not levels to aspire to. So let's look at our brothers Australia. They're on 36%.

My point is that we're not the macro financial basketcase that many make us out to be because they just hate a left wing government.

I don't care what the government's colour is. I just care about the numbers.

So Stephen Toplis says if we move the debt target from 20.4 to 27 percent then that's 20 billion we can borrow without any impact on our debt rating.

The numbers say we can do this. So take heart.

But it's important that we rebuild better.

Take the Redclyffe substation that serves Napier.

Even at a casual glance it looks vulnerable. Built by the sea, by a river, and on a flood plain.

The substation was designed in 1927 and refurbished in the 1970s and was designed to withstand a “one in 100 year” flood.

Now first it's important to understand 1 in 100 year floods.  What that actually means is that they have a 1 per cent chance of flooding in any given year. It's an international standard thought to be a fair balance between protecting the public and overly stringent regulation. With over 300 days in the year it's possible to have 1 in 100 year floods 3 times

In fact if you know anything about statistics and the concept of annual exceedance probability you'll know that the real probability is that there'll be a flood every 20 years. Water experts have debated forever the wisdom of saying a 1 in 100 year flood when what they're really saying is a 1 in 20 year flood on average.  It gives false security

This substation has had plenty of opportunity to be made more resilient but we didn't because we're cheap.

The Napier expressway could have been raised higher over its flood plain but it wasn't.

Our cellphone network can be made more resilient but it hasn't been.

It's time to stop doing only enough to get by until tomorrow because it will only become more expensive the longer we leave it.

It's been a week since I was on the radio.
It's been one of the worst weeks in New Zealand as Cyclone Gabrielle did its worst in areas that were not expecting it.
There's much to talk about the present but talk has started about the future.
To fix our battered country up is going to take a lot of money. 13 billion was Grant Robertson's first forecast.
Where do we find that? Over summer I was bailed up by a grandfather who felt for his grandchildren who were being lumbered with a crippling debt because of this bloody socialist government.
I said the debt is not that bad in reality. This weekend Stephen Toplis the BNZ economist talked about our current debt to GDP target of 21.4%. Currently we're about 30 percent.
Now to give you some context on that debt. Japan tops the list at over 250% debt to GDP, The United States is around 120%, Canada 110%, the UK at 100%.  Now sure, these are not levels to aspire to. So let's look at our brothers Australia. They're on 36%.
My point is that we're not the macro financial basketcase that many make us out to be because they just hate a left wing government.
I don't care what the government's colour is. I just care about the numbers.
So Stephen Toplis says if we move the debt target from 20.4 to 27 percent then that's 20 billion we can borrow without any impact on our debt rating.
The numbers say we can do this. So take heart.
But it's important that we rebuild better.
Take the Redclyffe substation that serves Napier.
Even at a casual glance it looks vulnerable. Built by the sea, by a river, and on a flood plain.
The substation was designed in 1927 and refurbished in the 1970s and was designed to withstand a “one in 100 year” flood.
Now first it's important to understand 1 in 100 year floods.  What that actually means is that they have a 1 per cent chance of flooding in any given year. It's an international standard thought to be a fair balance between protecting the public and overly stringent regulation. With over 300 days in the year it's possible to have 1 in 100 year floods 3 times
In fact if you know anything about statistics and the concept of annual exceedance probability you'll know that the real probability is that there'll be a flood every 20 years. Water experts have debated forever the wisdom of saying a 1 in 100 year flood when what they're really saying is a 1 in 20 year flood on average.  It gives false security
This substation has had plenty of opportunity to be made more resilient but we didn't because we're cheap.
The Napier expressway could have been raised higher over its flood plain but it wasn't.
Our cellphone network can be made more resilient but it hasn't been.
It's time to stop doing only enough to get by until tomorrow because it will only become more expensive the longer we leave it.

With decades of broadcasting experience behind him, Andrew Dickens has worked around the world across multiple radio genres. His bold, sharp and energetic show on Newstalk ZB is always informative and entertaining.

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