Everybody. It's Bill Courtney, Welcome to shop Talk.

Everybody. It's Bill Courtney, Welcome to shop Talk.

Welcome in alex I feel like it should be a lot stronger, especially given the number, the shop Talk number.

Welcome in alex I feel like it should be a lot stronger, especially given the number, the shop Talk number.

We're heading in Milestone number fifty, Shop Talk number fifty. I cannot believe we have done will have done at the end of this fifty shop Talks. I hope you people out there appreciate this hard work we put into.

We're heading in Milestone number fifty, Shop Talk number fifty. I cannot believe we have done will have done at the end of this fifty shop Talks. I hope you people out there appreciate this hard work we put into.

It, and you better send us some ideas because the struggle is real to come up with new ideas.

It, and you better send us some ideas because the struggle is real to come up with new ideas.

Yeah, I mean, guys, please, oh email us.

Yeah, I mean, guys, please, oh email us.

A lot of folks actually have so I'm just joking around.

A lot of folks actually have so I'm just joking around.

No more more Bill at normal folks dot us give us ideas for shop talk. I have a surprise for Alics. He doesn't even know we're going to do this one today. But today we're going to talk about tariffs. Aren't you excited? I'm also so yeah, we're going to talk about tariffs. And there's a reason we're going to talk about them, and they're topical, so it's shop talk, that's what everybody's talking about. But I want to explain them. I'm want to explain how they're affecting business. But I want to put a little slant on it.

No more more Bill at normal folks dot us give us ideas for shop talk. I have a surprise for Alics. He doesn't even know we're going to do this one today. But today we're going to talk about tariffs. Aren't you excited? I'm also so yeah, we're going to talk about tariffs. And there's a reason we're going to talk about them, and they're topical, so it's shop talk, that's what everybody's talking about. But I want to explain them. I'm want to explain how they're affecting business. But I want to put a little slant on it.

We actually did want about twenty episodes ago on tariffs too, but those were old tears. Those were the old tariffs.

We actually did want about twenty episodes ago on tariffs too, but those were old tears. Those were the old tariffs.

Yeah. Yeah, So shop talk number fifty coming up a little. Uh, what do you call it when it's when it's like right now? Current events? Is that?

Yeah. Yeah, So shop talk number fifty coming up a little. Uh, what do you call it when it's when it's like right now? Current events? Is that?

Sure? You can't call them that?

Sure? You can't call them that?

Yeah? What else do you call them? Like in political science class?

Yeah? What else do you call them? Like in political science class?

I think it's called carvent events?

I think it's called carvent events?

Yeah, little current events. Shop talk today on tariffs, right after these brief messages from our general sponsors. Everybody, Uh, tariffs. So the idea and I want to stay out of the political and just get into the kind of high altitude geopolitical argument, which is that if you put tariffs on products coming into your country from other countries, it disincentivizes the purchase of products from other countries and therefore incentivizes the manufacturer of products in your own country, thereby supporting growth in your own country, job creation in your own country, then boost your domestic economy, your domestic gross domestic product, and the health of your country. So I attended a conference that I was actually the keynote speaker at on the opening day, and then later was the moderator of a panel, and on the panel was the author of a book on globalization. The title of it is the End of the World is just Beginning, and his premise was on globalization and now deglobalization. And I'm going to this six hundred page book written by an incredibly brilliant economist that I'm going to, Butcher. I'm going to give you. The overview is that after World War Two, there was only one navy left in the world intact, and it was the US Navy. And because Europe was in shambles, much of Asia was in shambles, obviously Japan. At the end of World War two, the United States, being protected by the Atlantica Pacific Ocean, was completely intact. Its banking system was intact, its manufacturing base was intact. More importantly, its navy was intact. And it had a choice to make. It had the choice to follow in the footsteps of the Napoleon French Empire, the Roman Empire, the United Kingdom Empire. Because see in two thousand years of history, at the end of great conflicts, the winner started empires. And if you think about the Egyptian Empire, the Roman Empire, the UK Empire, the French empire. Actually, the Swedes had an empire at one time. If you think about it, they all fail. And the reason they fail is because although you win the war and the people that you have an empire over are decimated, over time they get stronger and they no longer want to be governed and ruled by some far away land. And then the empire becomes and the empire becomes weak and.

Yeah, little current events. Shop talk today on tariffs, right after these brief messages from our general sponsors. Everybody, Uh, tariffs. So the idea and I want to stay out of the political and just get into the kind of high altitude geopolitical argument, which is that if you put tariffs on products coming into your country from other countries, it disincentivizes the purchase of products from other countries and therefore incentivizes the manufacturer of products in your own country, thereby supporting growth in your own country, job creation in your own country, then boost your domestic economy, your domestic gross domestic product, and the health of your country. So I attended a conference that I was actually the keynote speaker at on the opening day, and then later was the moderator of a panel, and on the panel was the author of a book on globalization. The title of it is the End of the World is just Beginning, and his premise was on globalization and now deglobalization. And I'm going to this six hundred page book written by an incredibly brilliant economist that I'm going to, Butcher. I'm going to give you. The overview is that after World War Two, there was only one navy left in the world intact, and it was the US Navy. And because Europe was in shambles, much of Asia was in shambles, obviously Japan. At the end of World War two, the United States, being protected by the Atlantica Pacific Ocean, was completely intact. Its banking system was intact, its manufacturing base was intact. More importantly, its navy was intact. And it had a choice to make. It had the choice to follow in the footsteps of the Napoleon French Empire, the Roman Empire, the United Kingdom Empire. Because see in two thousand years of history, at the end of great conflicts, the winner started empires. And if you think about the Egyptian Empire, the Roman Empire, the UK Empire, the French empire. Actually, the Swedes had an empire at one time. If you think about it, they all fail. And the reason they fail is because although you win the war and the people that you have an empire over are decimated, over time they get stronger and they no longer want to be governed and ruled by some far away land. And then the empire becomes and the empire becomes weak and.

On its own selfishness, greed, on.

On its own selfishness, greed, on.

Its own selfish success success. But here's what happens is the cost to the empire nation to continue to keep that empire strength over vast wahs of the world becomes too great, and the empire's fought. Think of the Roman Empire and now you've got Italy. Think of what uk Uk once had. Once we had an empire over most of Africa and India and Hong Kong, and it's all gone. So the US at the end of World War two said, well, we can be an empire and dominate the world, but history has shown us eventually that fails. Or what we can do is we can return the sovereignty of all of these different nations to their nations, but put some guidelines on them, like the dollar trade and alliances. And so after World War Two, the United States very wisely built alliances that kept the big scary person in the corner, which was Russia at the time. And that's what built this American Eurasian alliance, all buttressed by the power and might of the United States Navy, because for the first time in history, the US Navy was so strong that it could allow and police and shariff free trade across the Atlantic and the Pacific. Thus started globalization. And the trade off for the amount of money and effort that the United States would put in and policing the oceans to allow for globalization and trade is that America would be the world leader our finances, the dollar trade, NATO, and all of the allies we built as a result of being the world sheriff. Is that you bind together with us against the red scare communism, i e. The Soviet Union. And it worked because over the course of time in the eighties, the Soviet Union fell, Russia another empire. Russia retreated to itself. And the truth is, most of us since World War II until today have lived in relative peace and prosperity and have grown to believe that this worldwide trade and this globalization that exists is normal, when in fact it is quite abnormal. History has never had a seven or eight decade long stretch where it was relative peace, prosperity, and open trade, where third world nations were able to pull themselves up and become wealthy, all while this benevolent sheriff, the US allowed it to happen. So that's kind of the history according to this book of globalization that I actually subscribe to and believe is accurate. So tariffs, where do tariffs come into this world? Well, the premise is that globalization is dying, and the reason globalization is dying is twofold. One is population is dying. There are only three countries in the world that over the next twenty years should experience it's even or increasing population. Every single other country is experiencing deep population.

Its own selfish success success. But here's what happens is the cost to the empire nation to continue to keep that empire strength over vast wahs of the world becomes too great, and the empire's fought. Think of the Roman Empire and now you've got Italy. Think of what uk Uk once had. Once we had an empire over most of Africa and India and Hong Kong, and it's all gone. So the US at the end of World War two said, well, we can be an empire and dominate the world, but history has shown us eventually that fails. Or what we can do is we can return the sovereignty of all of these different nations to their nations, but put some guidelines on them, like the dollar trade and alliances. And so after World War Two, the United States very wisely built alliances that kept the big scary person in the corner, which was Russia at the time. And that's what built this American Eurasian alliance, all buttressed by the power and might of the United States Navy, because for the first time in history, the US Navy was so strong that it could allow and police and shariff free trade across the Atlantic and the Pacific. Thus started globalization. And the trade off for the amount of money and effort that the United States would put in and policing the oceans to allow for globalization and trade is that America would be the world leader our finances, the dollar trade, NATO, and all of the allies we built as a result of being the world sheriff. Is that you bind together with us against the red scare communism, i e. The Soviet Union. And it worked because over the course of time in the eighties, the Soviet Union fell, Russia another empire. Russia retreated to itself. And the truth is, most of us since World War II until today have lived in relative peace and prosperity and have grown to believe that this worldwide trade and this globalization that exists is normal, when in fact it is quite abnormal. History has never had a seven or eight decade long stretch where it was relative peace, prosperity, and open trade, where third world nations were able to pull themselves up and become wealthy, all while this benevolent sheriff, the US allowed it to happen. So that's kind of the history according to this book of globalization that I actually subscribe to and believe is accurate. So tariffs, where do tariffs come into this world? Well, the premise is that globalization is dying, and the reason globalization is dying is twofold. One is population is dying. There are only three countries in the world that over the next twenty years should experience it's even or increasing population. Every single other country is experiencing deep population.

Do you know what those three countries are?

Do you know what those three countries are?

Us only because of immigration, right, not on its own.

Us only because of immigration, right, not on its own.

I'm just we're getting to sorry, France is actually growing. And then another that I can't remember, but it's a smaller country that.

I'm just we're getting to sorry, France is actually growing. And then another that I can't remember, but it's a smaller country that.

I'm surprised France has actually one.

I'm surprised France has actually one.

I know, but it is huh. I guess the French like to make babies. I don't know, but their population over the next twenty years is expected to grow. China's, on the other hand, is supposed to be cut by thirty five percent. They will lose thirty five to forty percent of their population, which and.

I know, but it is huh. I guess the French like to make babies. I don't know, but their population over the next twenty years is expected to grow. China's, on the other hand, is supposed to be cut by thirty five percent. They will lose thirty five to forty percent of their population, which and.

For context, you have to have two point one kids per couple to grow.

For context, you have to have two point one kids per couple to grow.

Right That's it. And they did the one child initiative for thirty something years and they're paying for it right now. So, so as population centers decline, demands for goods and services and the people to produce those goods and services decline. And that's one. And number two is the cost born by the United States to be the world's maritime sheriff has become too great. And so when you look at the debt that our country has piled up only over the last three decades, approaching thirty threeion dollars. If you look at our budget, just the debt service and then the untouchable entitlements like Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid, those things equal our total revenue. There is no more money to build into defense, there's no more money to do anything else because as interest rates have gone up, debt service on this growing debt has gone up. And so what's happened is we're in a fiscal Our country is having a physical problem, and it can really no longer afford to police and share the world. So there's this argument that other countries are going to have to step up and spend their own money to defend themselves, and the US has to raise revenue to offset the cost of what it is spent so many years defending the world. And there's only two ways to raise revenue. One is external taxes and the other's internal taxes. Well, when your economy is in trouble, you don't want to raise income taxes and stagnate internal growth. So the other is then tariffs, because tariffs bring money into the endo the treasury. And while there is an argument that the marketplace ultimately pays for tariffs because the prices of goods come up, it is a fact that at least some of the cost of terrorfs are born by foreign countries. Why am I saying all this? What has happened in the last three months has elicited all kinds of vitriol, all kinds of fear stoked, all kinds of misinformation. In my own business, I do business in forty two countries, every single one of them. I'm dealing with reciprocal tariffs. Now. It is not easy for my company. It is not easy for me. My company will not make the same money it was going to make only three months ago. Anybody who put together a prospectus for the year twenty twenty five back in November, you can ball that up and throw it in the garbage because this trade war tariff thing that's happened has absolutely made any projections you put together at the end of last year completely you know, they're just they're worthless because the whole world and the old economy of the world has changed. So there's fear, there's doubt, there's what are we gonna do, there's arguments, there's all of this going on. It is stoked an enormous amount of media attention and finger pointing and blame and calls of people being crazy and cause of this is the only way to save this and all of that. And again I want to remind you, I am affected very personally by this. Why am I saying all this is? Uh? Is this? I think we need to take a deep breath. I think we need to understand that the pendulum swings. It always swings, and I think we need to remember the power of an army of normal folks. We're going to be all right. The world is not going to implode, despite what the fearmongers and the press and national media and social media and TikTok and all the rest of it will have you believe. There is a shift based on population growth and decline based on the cost of globalization. There's absolutely a shift happening. And people hate change, whether it's necessary or unnecessary. Whether you believe it's necessary unnecessary, people hate change, and change scares people, and it further pulls us into our cocoons of belief sets and tends to stoke all kinds of differences, and that should not be the case. We have to accept the change is going to happen in one hundred years from now. The people that come behind us will deal with another set of change that we can't even fathom right now. That'll probably have to do with AI or something like that. But the power of an army of normal folks that remains consistent, that never changes. We need to remember that there's work to do in our communities, there's work to do in our families, there's opportunity every day to make positive effect, and we can't let the circumstance of current events in a geopolitical world make us withdraw into our own fear. If anything, we have to be more bold. We have to remember all the work that needs to be done in the world has not changed, and the power of an army and normal folks is exactly what stands strong in the face of fear and change. So tariffs, geopolitics, all kinds of empire, verse with drawing nations, and all of the stuff you're reading, and all the stuff you're being bombarded with fear not be part of the army of normal folks, serious and need and fill it, and don't let yourself be overcome with a bunch of mess that changes the narrative of your day, which is when you seeious need, you fill them. You'll be fulfilled by that. And it seems to more and more cancel the noise of all this other stuff out there. Don't withdraw. What do you think I mean?

Right That's it. And they did the one child initiative for thirty something years and they're paying for it right now. So, so as population centers decline, demands for goods and services and the people to produce those goods and services decline. And that's one. And number two is the cost born by the United States to be the world's maritime sheriff has become too great. And so when you look at the debt that our country has piled up only over the last three decades, approaching thirty threeion dollars. If you look at our budget, just the debt service and then the untouchable entitlements like Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid, those things equal our total revenue. There is no more money to build into defense, there's no more money to do anything else because as interest rates have gone up, debt service on this growing debt has gone up. And so what's happened is we're in a fiscal Our country is having a physical problem, and it can really no longer afford to police and share the world. So there's this argument that other countries are going to have to step up and spend their own money to defend themselves, and the US has to raise revenue to offset the cost of what it is spent so many years defending the world. And there's only two ways to raise revenue. One is external taxes and the other's internal taxes. Well, when your economy is in trouble, you don't want to raise income taxes and stagnate internal growth. So the other is then tariffs, because tariffs bring money into the endo the treasury. And while there is an argument that the marketplace ultimately pays for tariffs because the prices of goods come up, it is a fact that at least some of the cost of terrorfs are born by foreign countries. Why am I saying all this? What has happened in the last three months has elicited all kinds of vitriol, all kinds of fear stoked, all kinds of misinformation. In my own business, I do business in forty two countries, every single one of them. I'm dealing with reciprocal tariffs. Now. It is not easy for my company. It is not easy for me. My company will not make the same money it was going to make only three months ago. Anybody who put together a prospectus for the year twenty twenty five back in November, you can ball that up and throw it in the garbage because this trade war tariff thing that's happened has absolutely made any projections you put together at the end of last year completely you know, they're just they're worthless because the whole world and the old economy of the world has changed. So there's fear, there's doubt, there's what are we gonna do, there's arguments, there's all of this going on. It is stoked an enormous amount of media attention and finger pointing and blame and calls of people being crazy and cause of this is the only way to save this and all of that. And again I want to remind you, I am affected very personally by this. Why am I saying all this is? Uh? Is this? I think we need to take a deep breath. I think we need to understand that the pendulum swings. It always swings, and I think we need to remember the power of an army of normal folks. We're going to be all right. The world is not going to implode, despite what the fearmongers and the press and national media and social media and TikTok and all the rest of it will have you believe. There is a shift based on population growth and decline based on the cost of globalization. There's absolutely a shift happening. And people hate change, whether it's necessary or unnecessary. Whether you believe it's necessary unnecessary, people hate change, and change scares people, and it further pulls us into our cocoons of belief sets and tends to stoke all kinds of differences, and that should not be the case. We have to accept the change is going to happen in one hundred years from now. The people that come behind us will deal with another set of change that we can't even fathom right now. That'll probably have to do with AI or something like that. But the power of an army of normal folks that remains consistent, that never changes. We need to remember that there's work to do in our communities, there's work to do in our families, there's opportunity every day to make positive effect, and we can't let the circumstance of current events in a geopolitical world make us withdraw into our own fear. If anything, we have to be more bold. We have to remember all the work that needs to be done in the world has not changed, and the power of an army and normal folks is exactly what stands strong in the face of fear and change. So tariffs, geopolitics, all kinds of empire, verse with drawing nations, and all of the stuff you're reading, and all the stuff you're being bombarded with fear not be part of the army of normal folks, serious and need and fill it, and don't let yourself be overcome with a bunch of mess that changes the narrative of your day, which is when you seeious need, you fill them. You'll be fulfilled by that. And it seems to more and more cancel the noise of all this other stuff out there. Don't withdraw. What do you think I mean?

The tariffs are a tough topic, so I hesitant to weigh in on anything because so fraught of pissing off one side.

The tariffs are a tough topic, so I hesitant to weigh in on anything because so fraught of pissing off one side.

Of the I think that laid it out pretty yeah.

Of the I think that laid it out pretty yeah.

But the thing that I easily.

But the thing that I easily.

I guess I'm open to saying is, you know, there's all these exemptions right now for certain industries you know, as part of it. And that's where I think it's unfair because you know, the politically can I think there's been a thousand You've followen this much more closer than me, but a thousand products that have been exempted, right, you know, from the tariffs. So what happens is, you know, people go and lobby you know, President Trump, the administration all these people to get excluded. But how about all the little guys out there probably look.

I guess I'm open to saying is, you know, there's all these exemptions right now for certain industries you know, as part of it. And that's where I think it's unfair because you know, the politically can I think there's been a thousand You've followen this much more closer than me, but a thousand products that have been exempted, right, you know, from the tariffs. So what happens is, you know, people go and lobby you know, President Trump, the administration all these people to get excluded. But how about all the little guys out there probably look.

At it one, I know, they have no exclusions.

At it one, I know, they have no exclusions.

And you are an American manufacturer, I mean the kind of people that you know, supposedly we want to you know, benefited, you know, help from all this.

And you are an American manufacturer, I mean the kind of people that you know, supposedly we want to you know, benefited, you know, help from all this.

And so it's yeah, okay, there, let me just finish the thought and then you go into it.

And so it's yeah, okay, there, let me just finish the thought and then you go into it.

That's why ideally the government would have less power over our lives in an army, and normal folks would have more power in our society. That's the way it really should be. So it's not the few and the well connected in the apples of the world or these certain industries are getting the exemptions and the little guys are screwed. So that's kind of a big picture of thematic thing. Even outside of the tariffs, an ideal world that hopefully we all work towards is an army of normal folks reigns more supreme. And I think what an army can do in the meantime, even outside of politics, is hey, let's show the power of the army, and let's keep acting and showing what kind of change we can make happen in the world. And hopefully more and more people realize, like, the army's the solution, not DC, that's it.

That's why ideally the government would have less power over our lives in an army, and normal folks would have more power in our society. That's the way it really should be. So it's not the few and the well connected in the apples of the world or these certain industries are getting the exemptions and the little guys are screwed. So that's kind of a big picture of thematic thing. Even outside of the tariffs, an ideal world that hopefully we all work towards is an army of normal folks reigns more supreme. And I think what an army can do in the meantime, even outside of politics, is hey, let's show the power of the army, and let's keep acting and showing what kind of change we can make happen in the world. And hopefully more and more people realize, like, the army's the solution, not DC, that's it.

And what I was going to say when you were saying that just popped in my head is I could sit around and get pretty angry right now if I think about the exemptions for Apple and cat and chips when we're struggling because of all this stuff. But if I sit around and get angry about that and wouldraw and get frustrated, then I might miss the fifteen opportunities that are going to come across today that I might be able to serve or help somebody else in need. And that's going to fill me up a lot more than worrying about all this stuff. So you're right, the exemptions of it are frustrating a scrap, and you can easily hand ring and get angry and go down this slippery slope into this pitfall of being consumed by all this mess that's going on right now. But I have to remind myself every day that the world's not going to end.

And what I was going to say when you were saying that just popped in my head is I could sit around and get pretty angry right now if I think about the exemptions for Apple and cat and chips when we're struggling because of all this stuff. But if I sit around and get angry about that and wouldraw and get frustrated, then I might miss the fifteen opportunities that are going to come across today that I might be able to serve or help somebody else in need. And that's going to fill me up a lot more than worrying about all this stuff. So you're right, the exemptions of it are frustrating a scrap, and you can easily hand ring and get angry and go down this slippery slope into this pitfall of being consumed by all this mess that's going on right now. But I have to remind myself every day that the world's not going to end.

And Alan Barnhardt makes less money than you, and he's still a really happy man.

And Alan Barnhardt makes less money than you, and he's still a really happy man.

He's still a really happy man. It's a good example. It's a perfect example. So there you are. Don't let the tariffs, geopolitics and all the people on the news and social media freak you out. Everything's going to be okay, and the power of the army and normal folks is steadfast and is not going to change. That's shop Talk number fifty. If you have any ideas for other shop talks, please email me at Bill at normal Folks dot us and I will always respond and if I think we have something to add, we'll certainly take it up.

He's still a really happy man. It's a good example. It's a perfect example. So there you are. Don't let the tariffs, geopolitics and all the people on the news and social media freak you out. Everything's going to be okay, and the power of the army and normal folks is steadfast and is not going to change. That's shop Talk number fifty. If you have any ideas for other shop talks, please email me at Bill at normal Folks dot us and I will always respond and if I think we have something to add, we'll certainly take it up.

There's actually one other thing I want to add, So this is going to come out before our live interview, our next one on MAYA with nine eleven firefighter Tim Brown.

There's actually one other thing I want to add, So this is going to come out before our live interview, our next one on MAYA with nine eleven firefighter Tim Brown.

Oh Yeah, cool story, amazing story.

Oh Yeah, cool story, amazing story.

So he helps say fifteen lives that day, but he doesn't view himself as a hero. He lost one hundred friends that day. So it's maya, six thirty pm at Grime City Brewing. Go to one hundred friends dot event bright dot com to learn more on RSVP.

So he helps say fifteen lives that day, but he doesn't view himself as a hero. He lost one hundred friends that day. So it's maya, six thirty pm at Grime City Brewing. Go to one hundred friends dot event bright dot com to learn more on RSVP.

Yeah, and y'all come and meet a true American hero. Yeah. If you like the show, rate to review it, subscribe.

Yeah, and y'all come and meet a true American hero. Yeah. If you like the show, rate to review it, subscribe.

To the podcast.

To the podcast.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Share with friends on solid, share friends on Social.

Share with friends on solid, share friends on Social.

Go to normal Folks dot us right sign up to join the army, become a premium member.

Go to normal Folks dot us right sign up to join the army, become a premium member.

That's it, all of these things that will help us grow.

That's it, all of these things that will help us grow.

An army of normal folks. And shop Talk at shop Talk number.

An army of normal folks. And shop Talk at shop Talk number.

Fifty, they're the same thing. I've been meaning to correct you on this. What's for some reason you like treat them like they're two separate shows, like they're going to grow an army of normal folks.

Fifty, they're the same thing. I've been meaning to correct you on this. What's for some reason you like treat them like they're two separate shows, like they're going to grow an army of normal folks.

And grow shop talk. Shop Talk is a part of an army of normal folks.

And grow shop talk. Shop Talk is a part of an army of normal folks.

It's not the same thing, but you know, I mean, shop Talk's a different title. I know. All right, whatever, after you, sir, see you next week.

It's not the same thing, but you know, I mean, shop Talk's a different title. I know. All right, whatever, after you, sir, see you next week.