Dr Jessica Genauer, from Flinders University, reacts to the news of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas

Published Jan 16, 2025, 3:53 AM

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The big news around today is that Israel and Hamas have reached a deal for a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza. This was confirmed by a US official earlier today, in the final days of Joe Biden's administration. So what on earth would be involved in negotiating such a difficult deal like this. Let's talk about it now with a senior international relations lecturer at Flinders University, Jessica Ganawa. Good afternoon, Jessica.

Hi, thanks for having me on the program.

No, thank you for your time. I mean, this conflict is, yes, it flared up on October seven, flared up, I mean, it really escalated on October seven, But it has been such a long standing, historical, ongoing war, I guess, between Israel and Hamas. So I imagine these negotiations would have been extremely difficult to make this happen.

Yeah, that's right, and we've seen I mean, you're right that this is obviously a conflict that's been going on for many decades, is quite intractable. But then we've also seen more than a year of sort of attempt at negotiations to reach some kind of cessation of hostilities or cease fire. So I think what's interesting to think about now is not so much the fact that we have a cessation of hostilities, but the timing. So why now and why were both parties willing now to make this kind of agreement in a way that they weren't willing to in the last sort of approximately you know, eight months, ten months the last year, even though the agreement that's been reached now is not that different to what was proposed last May by President Joe Biden. So I think there are just a few factors there that are affecting the timing of the agreement rather than the details.

Okay, And do you have any thoughts, any theories around the timing of it.

So, I think there are a few things. I mean, first of all, the more that war or conflict drags on, both sides are going to experience a lot of costs from that. And we've seen that Hamas itself has been severely degraded in the last year. Many of you know, senior Hamas leadership have been killed. We've also seen Israel engaging in a war with you know, an operation into Lebanon where many hesb last senior figures have also been killed. So we've seen a real degrading of Hamas, but also it's allies, and you know, by extension also Iran. So that's one factor that I think has brought Hamas more to the table. On the Israeli side, we've seen that domestically there's a lot of pressure on Israeli priminists, the Binima Netnya who to bring those hostages home, a lot of political pressure. So I think that Benima Netnya who not that at some stage he does need to deal with the fact that there are still hostages in Gaza and try to find a way to get them home. And then I think also if we look globally, there's of course the incoming US President Trump, where there'll be the hand of over power on the twentieth of January, and Trump has already said that he really wants there to be some kind of progress, you could say it, or some kind of movement in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, and I think that that's also on the mind of both parties and has brought some pressure to bear in terms of the timing that we're seeing at least this initial cessation of hostilities in what they're calling Phase one over the next approximately six weeks that we're seeing that come through now literally Justice Trump is about to be sworn in as US president.

There was a really interesting, almost comical interaction at Joe Biden's press conference that he held earlier today announcing the ceasefire. Is at the very end he finished his press conference, he was walking away and then this happened.

Credit for President you or trap?

So the joke thank you?

He was he was sort of facing away from the podium, walking away, and then as the question was finished, he turned around sort of with this one eyebrow raised and went is that a joke? And it was really funny to watch it. But I guess that's a question that people will be asking now, especially after Donald Trump's overwhelming majority in the election. There will be there'll be Trump supporters and Biden critics who are saying, well, this only happened now because Donald Trump was about to be inaugurated and we're about to have a new president in the United States, So that will be the attitude of some people.

That's right, And I think that both Joe Biden and then incoming President Trump will both try to claim the credit. And I think that the truth is somewhere in the middle. So I think that Joe Biden's administration really did do all of the groundwork in terms of, you know, laying sort of those interactions around the negotiation has been ongoing for many months, and the US has been involved and then also helping to kind of nut out some of those details that were then used in the final agreement. But on the other hand, I do think that we can't ignore the fact that there is an incoming Trump presidency and that Trump's made a few statements about how he's going to approach conflicts in the Middle East and the Middle East region, and I think that this could particularly be influential with Israeli Prime Minister Biniama Netnahu, who, you know, I don't think the President Joe Biden had any sort of personal influence over beniamint Now, who, even though the US generally has influences it, you know, sort of a key ally of Israel, Whereas I do think the President Trump will have more personal influence. Whether or not that's going to lead to a lasting is fire or a longer kind of political negotiate agreement in the mid least still remains to be seen. I think there's a lot of uncertainty there, and it won't necessarily lead down that pathway. But I do think the President Trump will have a little bit more personal influence over Benny Minett Yahoo, and that might be a factor as well in the timing of this particular agreement.

Well, they're both taking credit for it, of course, Joe Biden, they're in the press conference. Donald Trump has written on truth social we have a deal for the hostages in the Middle East. They will be released shortly, thank you, and then followed up with another tweet taking credit for it. So they both sides taking credit. But I think everyone's happy about the outcome in the end. How do either side trust now that this is going to happen, Because, as we've been talking about, these negotiations would have been extremely tense, extremely detailed. There would need to be a certain level of trust to say, all right, we're going to release these hostages, and you're going to release these hostages, and we're both going to abide by this ceasefire. How can two side who have been at war for so long trust that the other will hold up their end of the deal.

Yeah, that's right, it's a really good point. I think that sort of the deeper trust takes you know, decades to be rebuilt. But I think in the short terms, what we're going to see is that if over the following six weeks of this first phase, which is supposed to start on this coming Sunday, if both sides do stick to what they've committed to day by day and week by week, then that trust will be slowly built. So we're supposed to see hostages being released in a sort of a staggered fashion over those six weeks, two or three or four at a time, and then at the same time we're supposed to see Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners in a similar staggered fashion, also ensuring that humanitarian aid get through to the Gaza Strip every day, and then also withdrawing militarily from the Gaza Strip except for sort of a buffer zone. So I think that that trust that we built day by day and week by week, if we do see that those elements are successfully implemented by both parties.

And then it's clearly a global issue now, especially with the US being involved and getting Israel and getting Musa all at the table together. But what exactly would have been involved, who would have needed to be involved in these type of negotiations. Is this a un thing or is there people sitting around a table or are they all on a zoom call working this out?

Yeah, No, there are people in person who are negotiating. And what we've seen is that throughout this process Kasar has had quite a key role because they've been able to navigate between sort of the different parties. So they have quite good relationship with Humma senior leadership, but then also have a fairly good relationship with the US and Egypt's been involved in various stages of negotiation. Then of course Israeli counterparts as well, so there have been various different actors who have been involved and are involved. Obviously, one complicating factor that we've seen is that throughout the last year, very from US leadership officials have been assassinated during that time, I've been eliminated, so that's obviously changed. Then the dynamics of the negotiations and things have had to sort of, you know, go back to the beginning a little bit and new people have had to come in. But essentially throughout that process there have been lower level people, not top leadership, who have been negotiating in person. But I think that until this point in time, both Hamas and Israel still felt that there was some benefit in sort of holding out and continuing fighting for Israel, with continuing with that military operation, which I think now Israel's calculus has changed a little bit and they're seeing that, you know, militarily they're quite stretched, having also engaged in the military operation in Lebanon, and that actually it would be more beneficial to scale back the military oper races at this stage. And then also there's still that Onloine issue of getting the hostages back home, and I think equally paulomasks they've been so severely degraded that by now it's actually definitely also in their interest to see a cessation of the fighting.

Eight double two to three double O double OW is the number to call if you have some thoughts or if you have a question. And Fay has called in from Windsor Gardens.

Hello, Faye, Yes, good afternoon, girls. Hope you will. The reason I'm bringing in for is I'd love to know about these hostages. How many are alive against how many are not alive? And it's a great fighting.

Yeah, that's a really good question, and no one knows the exact answer, but what is suspected of this stage. The best estimates are that there are around one hundreds of about ninety eight hostages still in the Gaza strip, and of those, it's the lead that unfortunately about a third, so around thirty or so, are no longer alive, and around sort of sixty eight or so are still alive. So what's expected is that in the first phase of disagreement, thirty three hostages who are still alive and primarily women and children and older people, will be released. Then in the second phase, other hostages would be released who are still alive but who are more in the category of males of fighting age or who were actually in the military. And then in the final phase, unfortunately, the bodies of hostages who are no longer live, which would be that's the final third, would be returned back.

Yeah.

Well, the ones they have to release the bodies, so they'd have to go back to their families, wouldn't they.

Yeah, yeah, that's exactly right.

Absolutely great question.

Say thank you, not a problem, have a nice day.

Let's say in windsor Gardens eight double two to three double O double oh is the number to call if you have any questions on this, and before I let you go, Jessica, this deal still needs to be approved by the Security Cabinet and then the full Cabinet, And is there any chance that it won't be approved or is that just a formality now.

I don't think there's any chance that it won't be approved, and I think that's mainly also because at this stage they're really just approving this first phase, which deals mainly with release of hostages, as I said, you know, for the Israeli side, and then on the other side, the delivery of a military withdrawal and release of Palestine in prisons from Israel. So these are all things that there is even if there's some resistance in the Israeli domestic context, there's broadly agreement on this, and it doesn't really deal with those more tricky political issues around who might lead Gaza, you know, in the longer term, or would there be a complete Israeli military withdrawal. These type of issues are much more tricky, much more contentious, But I think that the current sort of first phase will definitely be approved.

Okay, all right, well, it's definitely good to see and really appreciate your time and your insights. Today. Thank you so much, Jessica, you're welcome.

Thanks.

It's Jessica Ganawa, Flinder's senior International relations lecturer.

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