South Africa’s political landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, with the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) warning that by 2029, the African National Congress (ANC) could retain outright control in only two provinces — Limpopo and the Eastern Cape.

From Gauteng to KwaZulu-Natal, and the Free State to Mpumalanga, coalition governments are becoming the norm rather than the exception, with national politics already testing the limits of this fragile new order.

At the heart of MISTRA’s analysis is Professor Susan Booysen, one of South Africa’s most respected political analysts. Speaking to Tsepiso Makwetla, Booysen unpacked the numbers, assessed the strategies, and examined the stability — or instability — of coalitions.

She also weighed in on whether the government’s much-promoted ‘national dialogue’ will serve as a bridge to unity, or simply as a bridge to nowhere.