Best of A Numbers Game | May 22, 2024

Published May 22, 2024, 5:08 PM

Here is the best of today's A Numbers Game as hosts Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon run down tonight's NBA Playoffs slate with Jonathan Von Tobel and also preview the Charles Schwab Challenge with Sia Nejad. The hosts also look at the updated odds for NFL Week One Starting QB.

The numbers told the story.

Then he's doing Swando's idiots will believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander gone Visa.

Good Wednesday Morning too.

It is a numbers game at Visa d Sports Beending Network, Visa Dot Com Game plus, iHeartRadio YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It is Gil Alexander, it is Kelly Bedlin, sub party people, some man live from Bark, Canada at the d here in downtown Las Vegas. Good Show Today, will hill all his bets. JVT co host the VS in Pride Time and our senior NBA analyst will talk NBA Playoffs with us, What what what happened last night and what will happen tonight?

His thoughts.

Jason Wygard from under Cloud of Smoke back from London, England and the Crawley Town win in Sanda JAD hosted analyst from Monumental Sports Network, will have him on. He'll talk Charles Schwap with us and uh, maybe we'll allow him to go off legally on legal matters, I should say, because he was really upset with the prosecution yesterday in the Scottie Scheffler case, the Scotti Schffler case, the fact that it's even a case.

I didn't even read the full thread. Oh he's mad.

He takes it to me, and I was like, just passed it on to you, like notes for tomorrow.

Kelly, does that a lot of air? Check this out? Did you read it?

No? Okay, we got to talk about this game first. Oh so much to say. Celtics won thirty three pacers one twenty eight in overtime, and the Celtics take a one to nothing lead in the Eastern Conference Best of seven finals. Game two will be tomorrow night back at the TD Garden there in Boston. You just take the red line of pack and then you transfer over to the green line.

I think, by the way, I might be wrong about that.

No, no, well, I just remember the other direction. We would go to Park and then we'd chance over to Someonville and Metaford. Okay, so here's the thing. Let's go through. Let's go through the specifics, and then we'll just go off on some stuff. Celtics went up twelve to nothing to start the game after Missoula successfully challenged a goaltending called thirty five seconds in. That was a little no but twelve to nothing Celtics out the gate, but they only led The Celtics did by three at the end of the first quarter thirty four to thirty one. Obi top and eleven in the first quarter was great for the Pacers. He was five of six, one of one from behind the arc. The game would be tied by the half fifty seven and a piece, fifty nine a piece, sixty one a piece and then sixty four sixty four at the half. Third quarter, Pacers took their first lead right out of the gate. They actually went up five sixty nine sixty four, but the Celtics immediately retook the lead at seventy one sixty nine. And Kelly, that's when I got in and made a Pacers money line bet at two plus two fifty six n plus six and a half.

Okay, at that point Celtics got it.

Bet that was a poorly timed bet because the Celtics got it all the way back to twelve, matching the biggest lead, actually got it to thirteen. Pardon me at ninety to seventy seven with four to fifteen left in the quarter. But and I you know, I've been saying this now on the run up to this series. You will believe me when I say, at no point did I ever feel the Celtics were going to run away with this. I'm like, thirteen, that'll be, that'll go away, And it did by the end of that quarter. Remember that I was a thirteen point lead with four to fifteen left in the quarter. By the end of the quarter it was ninety four to ninety three Celtics by one after a fourteen to two Pacers run. That amazing bank three from Halliburton den that frame. Fourth quarter, Pacers took a ninety five ninety four lead briefly, but they'd fall back down five again one hundred and ninety five, then tied it again at one oh four a piece on a turner three, then a Brown and Horford miss led to a Siakham jumper, a Siakam steal, and a Haliburton assist to Siakam from for a running jam one oh four Pacers with four to thirty three left. They would not trail again in regulation. Sounds like they win, huh now. By the way, so down the stretch of that game, huge Nie Smith three, the hard way, huge Haliburton block of a Derek White shot, anmhar twenty foot step back with forty seven seconds left among the Pacers highlights down the stretch one seventeen one to fourteen Pacers, then Tatum a missed three, and then the Shenanigans begin an Indiana unforced turnover where Halliburton just is careless with the basketball bounces off. God knows what part of his body.

Even started with that Tatum miss three like Nismiths, sold out, sold out for like the steal left a wide open three that luckily he missed.

Missed it badly, but then Indiana gets it right back. That's the first bat turnover. Then a White missed lamp and a Tatum miss jumper and the Celtics foul, so Indiana to inbounds and Rick Carlisle, which he admits later was his mistake, does not advance the basketball, so they're inbounding from the side, not up court, and Siakam's jersey immediately.

Gets pulled by by Brown.

JJ Reddick says it out loud, no call, no whistle, and then it's another Indiana horrible turnover on the nemhard inbounds because Kram's off of Siakam out of bounds as he's like streaking towards the baseline.

No idea why Nemhard was impounding, No idea why they didn't take a time out, No idea why he didn't take a time out once he realized he had nowhere to pass the balls.

That's right, it's not like you didn't have timeouts. So just over eight seconds left, Boston gets another reprieve.

They're down three.

They should have lost this two different, three different times already. And here is where I got a stray from everybody else on this show. And I'm only gonna bring this up. People gonna think I'm saying it to like chest flex or something. I'm just saying it just as the credit. I've talked about fouling up three on this show since the dawn of time, since we've been on the air, and now I think everybody does it. So I just say that to say this is actually one of these times where I was not upset with the Pacers not fouling down three.

And I'll tell you why.

It's because of how the play developed. Just over eight seconds left, Brown is in the corner, but Siakam wasn't in position on the catch to foul him, and so you can't then just blindly. Either you didn't watch how the play developed, you didn't play enough basketball to know that you can't then foul retroactively, or you're just performatively wanting to be outraged about it. But that's the least thing. I'm the guy who has the Pacers in seven. I'm very angry at the result of this game, but I wasn't pissed at that. That's not the part I'm upset about. That's the least thing. It's like, Okay, sometimes and Brown hits the biggest shot of his career, Jalen Brown does. Sometimes it just happens that way. One seen one seventeen preaching man, we're going overtime. By the way, at that point, going in overtime, Indiana was three for three from the line, Boston was seventeen of twenty three. Celtics finally take a lead one twenty one one twenty uh in overtime. Then Tatum with a careless turnover. He just literally throws the ball the other team Halliburton fouled behind the arc.

He hits all three.

Pacers are up by two one with one forty six left in overtime.

Then it's all Celtics.

Tatum three the hard way Haliburton turnover forced by Drew Holliday.

At least this one was forced. He was awesome. Uh.

Then a Tatum three to put the Celtics up four with forty two point eight seconds left, and then Brown stole it from seat. Come in it was Katie bar the door. Celtics win it one, thirty three to one, twenty eight thirty two Celtics points.

I can harp on the free throws.

Celtics had thirty attempts, Pacers had ten, But the real story was thirty two Celtics points off either twenty one or twenty two Pacers turnover. There seems to be some debate about them. So glad we didn't even talk about this. I heard both as well. I've heard both as well. So by the way, and the Celtics fifteen of forty five from three? What are you doing throwing up forty five threes? Okay, I just have to make this point now. Let me just say so, I split the two in game bets the plus points, but I lost the money line. Obviously, I'm not whatever about that. Obviously I have the pacers and seven as I talked about, and you wanted. Obviously in the situation you were in. You wanted the Pacers to win that game the three four five times they had a chance to win it, so that was really upsetting.

But I gotta say this again because I said this last.

Year, and I want to bring this up Kelly, and I want to bring it up respectfully as a handicapping point about the NBA specifically, which is last year.

Let me be clear, I didn't have the heat.

To beat the Bucks, but I did have them to beat the Knicks, and I did have them to beat the Celtics, and then I stopped because I knew the Nuggets We're going to crush them. But the point I made last year stands here now, which is, I feel like, if you're an NBA heard oh, like we call our tennis hart oes, I feel like, if you're an NBA heard oh, there is a pitfall in the NBA for handicappers that doesn't exist in other sports, that you can get so wrapped up in the numbers of the regular season that it ends up really potentially hurting you in the playoffs. And I'm gonna say this after the Celtics still won that game and the Pacers lost, because I don't want to always say it in a favorable position because I think the process means more than the actual result here. But I think the entire run up to this game into this series, and I'm not going to mention any names because it was everybody. When I said that I had the Pacers and seven and I had the Pacers as a puncher's chance to win this series, everyone to a man dismissed me summarily, and I tried to be as polite as possible and say, are you The willingness to get behind the Celtics over and over is kind of amazing to me. And I just feel like the regular season in the NBA is so much different than the postseason. Right the management of eighty two games is so different that it was much more stark with the heat because people understood, oh, they gave their best in the playoffs, they really didn't care.

In the regular season.

But I do think the flip side of that is overrating the Celtics is a thing, and now I think after one game, people get that the Pacers can be very competitive in this series. By the way, when I said to people after the game, yess, I was like, oh, as pissed as I am. I think the Pacers get now they can win this, And I got the same thing back of nah, now they're really going to lose in five? Well, maybe you're right, Maybe they'll get swept, Maybe they'll lose in five.

That could be the case.

But I think the point remains about basketball. Remember, with baseball, it's the format.

I think this is all fair.

The format, the format incongruents in baseball is the problem. But I just think basketball becomes a different game.

Yeah, And I think really the teams that you're you're bringing up, I think specifically are great examples with it.

I do.

I mean it's I mean, you brought it up fifteen for forty five, a team that relies so heavily on the three. The thought that to think that they're never going to lose a game it is, it is a little wild. I mean, I think they're they're a great they're a great team. But I hear, I think it's a great point. The can we just go back to the three thing real quick?

Though?

Oh my gosh, you agree with me? Oh what one hundred? I mean, I'm in shock today, Gil, I'm in shock over. I can't believe the conversations around sports media. I'm waking up to of foul up three. As you said, we've been talking about this forever, well before ever. We are absolutely on team foul up three had no chance to do it in that situation. What are we even talking about? It was terrible defense on the inbound. They didn't switch, so Siakam got caught up in the screen switch. And then Siakam did the right thing. He cannot foul there. You have to shot. He had a great job of not foul. Yes, I mean the.

Two turnovers before that were horrific, horrific.

I mean, somehow the Halliburton one gets covered up. I mean he just dribbled the ball down the court and lost it off his foot like he forgot how to dribble.

All of a sudden, I was like, what am I watching? Oh, it's brutal for the pacer.

It's a tough loss. That is a tough loss. We don't have a long series, though. We're gonna talk about it with the JVT and of course the Mavericks and the t Wolves beginning to night of the Western Conference Finals. That's next with Jonathan BoNT Tobell numbers game visa in these sports Betting.

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That's a's right, that's what we heard.

That's vsin dot com a slash subscribe Gil Alexander Kelly Bidlin JBT about to join us. I just want to say one thing real quick here before we get to John, which is just following up on our conversation in the first segment, the part about the Celtics shooting forty five threes. We talk about this in football at the time on guessing lines. What's your betting truth serum? Like, if I have a bet, what do I want the other team to do? On fourth down? That's where it usually comes up, right, if I'm betting against the Celtics. Every time Tatum or Brown, but Tatum specifically takes it to the rack, I'm like, oh no, this is not gonna go well. Every time he shoots a three. It's a victory every time I hear it. And the other thing is you pointed out.

Why do you think I love like Giannis and Zion so much?

How you stopping that? The other thing is you just mentioned this off air. It is official now that inside the NBA has one more year left on TNC as we know it. Ernie Johnson to Earnest Johnson and crew there with Shaq, Chuckster and the jet and uh, it's gonna go to NBC. NBC has outbid TNT.

Is that the word NBA finalizing media rights deal with ESPN, NBC and Amazon and amazons.

You'll get Round Ball Rock with John Tesh Again. Here's the thing, though, this memo just in. Michael Jordan is not walking through that door like nineties basketball is not actually returning.

It's just the Round Ball Rock.

Have you seen the video where he like tells it on the Answer He has it on his answering machine. He woke up, he dreamt. He dreamt it like McCartney dreamt yesterday. That's what he This will start anyway, the greatest studio show there ever was in any sport, which everybody else tried to mimic but never could capture the chemistry. One more year of it. JBT joins Jonathan von Tobel. He's the co host of VCENT prime Time weekdays here at the network, and of course he's our senior NBA analyst. He joins us now courtesy the Progressive guest line. How about that game last night.

John, Yeah, it's pretty disappointing actually, as somebody, and I think Gill, I think, at the very least, I think you're in on this. But as somebody who's holding Indiana plus two and a half games would have been really nice to take one of those there, and you should have the win probability. We can go through it inbounding up three with the other team under ten seconds, no timeouts. I think since tracking's been a thing, I think the guys at ESPN had the stat. Pacers are the first team to lose that game. So that's that's a brutal way to lose that thing.

Man, Yeah, stad ninety seven percent. It said there was their win probability at that point. I would argue it's probably higher. Probably the stat goes back to nineteen ninety seven. But if you hear that at all today, it's what jvt's talking about. That's when they started tracking this stuff, So it he goes back even for Ah, it's just and do you agree one. I think Kelly and I did not talk about this before the show. I just sort of go into my rant and then he reacts to it as upset as I was with the haliburt and turnover with just you know, with like forty some seconds left and the horrible Carlisle decision not to call timeout or advance the ball, and then you know, siakams Jersey gets tugged and nemhar throws and it carrams up like that stuff was awful, but not fouling up three. I just didn't think the way the play developed that they should have. And I thought Siakam did well not falling him. Do you agree with that?

Yeah?

No, I think I would generally like that's a tough spot because then of course you foul.

He hits it, then it's an end one opportunity.

What I kind of quibble with more in that scenario is why even have defenders along the interior? You know what I'm saying, Like, why not just put everybody along the perimeter? Two guys in the corner, two guys on the wing, but one guy at the top of the key. They need a three there, like they don't let them get a two point shot?

Who cares if they do it in that instance?

So I'm more because I'm with you, I think it's easy to just say, why don't you foul? Like Lebron I think tweeted out like that's why I foul up three every time? But I think it's easier said than done in that situation. For me, I'm just camping my guys out along the perimeter and just going go ahead and take a free bucket inside.

We don't care. We're up three with less.

Than ten seconds left than I believe you don't have timeouts like you go ahead and try or do whatever you need to do. But we're camped out here and we're gonna be here to defend. I think that for me was the bigger one strategy wise. There's no need to put guys along the interior and defend in there. There's no need for it at all.

It's a good point, yo, I didn't even bring that up in the first segment. Lebron tweeted that how did look? Ro On tweet that he doesn't think that.

There's no way he really thinks Rod mister phallop three?

Yeah, okay, buddy, how are you fouling there? Without jayleb Brow getting the shot off? Right?

Last thing on this before we get to the maps and the Tea Wolves. Celtics are nine point favorites again in game two tomorrow night, the totals at two twenty four and a half. Are you in the oh man, Indiana can't possibly bounce back from that kind of defeat, Camp Or are you in the oh, Indiana, even though they lost, they are gonna come back in game two, and due to the Celtics what their previous playoff opponents did to them in game twos.

I mean, I don't know if it's identical the game too, but I don't think you're you're scared off of Indiana. It's all like they they did anything that was completely unsustainable. I think in that first game, you know, they only shot thirty five percent from three. So something he went out there like Miami did in that game too, right, shot fifty five percent from three and took a game, or what Cleveland did in their Game two, which was shoot over fifty five percent from the floor of a forty percent from three, Like they had a really good day at the rim. Pascos Yakam had a really good game, as did Tyres Aliburton.

But I didn't want anything.

I don't know about you, Gil, but I didn't watch anything last night that told me that Indiana cannot repeat a similar performance and push this team again.

So somebody came into this right.

Thinking that, like I thought they were going to be pretty competitive in the series. I would not be scared off of Indiana in any way, shape or form after that.

Yesterday, Indiana's a series price adjusted to plus eight hundred and eight to one. Now on they come back down one to nothing in the East. In the West, te Wolves minus one seventy is where the series price has sort of settled in after sort of getting past that. Now settling back a little bit tonight, Tea Wolves favored by four totals two oh six and a half.

How do you see this, John So.

I think for a series perspective, look, I like Minnesota, and I you know, full disclosure, I do have this futures ticket on Minnesota. But I think even just dropping in with nothing, I think that Minnesota is uniquely equipped to kind of handle this matchup. One of the things that I think is really underrated about Dallas win over Oklahoma City is the way their role players carry them through that series. Like Luka Doncic had a good end of the series, but Kyrie Irving was quiet. But guys Derek Lively when he was on the floor, the Mavericks outscored the thunder by seven twenty one points in that series. Yeah, Derek Jones junior score shoot thirty seven percent from three.

Yet PJ.

Washington give them what like seventeen and eight on forty seven percent shooting from three point range in that series. Those guys really help them carry them along. And I think that when you look at the way that Minnesota can defend when you have Jade McDaniels and Anthony Edwards for Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, when you've got smart defenders in Mike Conley where you can put it wherever, but even if he gets switched on, it's a seize mis match, but he can still, of course defend at a really smart level. We know what Karl Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert can do. We know how good your bench can be. I think that this is a team that is equipped to do this and they're not going to have to help off the defenders because they're going to trust their guys to hold up.

In one on one situations.

I think that this is a quieter series for those role players for Dallas, I think that puts a lot more onus on the shoulders of Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. You know, I put this in the right up for the series. If you look at it from just an individual statistic basis, the Mavericks were one of the best isolation scoring teams in the NBA in the regular season. Makes sense they have two they have best isolation scorers in the NBA. The Timberwolves are the second best isolation defense in the NBA in the regular season. They have a bunch of guys who could hold up in those situations, and I think over the course of this series that lends itself to them winning this thing. So I think they're in a pretty good spot. I know that generally game sevens are like are the winners of Game sevens are teams that the market would like to play against. But we saw yesterday, right we had a winner of a Game seven go in there and cover a number against the Boston Celtics, and this team's going to be at home. I would really just be on the side of Minnesota. I like them in the series, and I kind of think that they have the potential to end this pretty quickly in five or six games if they play to their level on defense.

I like that.

You agree that if the t Wolves win it all, Tim Connelly pulled a fast one over all of us, and he gets to say, I don't care what you all said about my Rudy Gobert trade.

It did exactly what I thought it would.

Yeah, well, isn't it. So that's one of the cooler stories. And you know Rudy Gobert stuff aside Gil Tim Connelly was part of the front office that goes and puts together Denver.

Denver goes and wins a championship.

Then he goes to Minnesota and goes, I'm going to build a team that's similar, that's going to be better than that team, beat them, and then maybe compete for an NBA Finals once more. Like that's incredible to see what a front office guy can do. But absolutely, and I think that, like I was somebody and Kelly knows this. I was in on Gobert since last year in this trade, like I thought it would work. I had Timberwol's futures and overs last year and they were punching fire extinguishers and Kyle Anderson and each other and all that kind of stuff. But I do think that on the surface, when you looked at it, this could work. And now all of a sudden, you're going, well, the heck, I mean successful, and they're the Western Conference finals and who knows, but I would agree like generally a trade that was mocked. Now you got to look at it and go, Holy smokes, this.

Is going to work for them.

And by the way, that ignores all the ownership nonsense that they got to deal with, right, I think they're going through it's insane.

Yeah, I think it's the I've been saying for a few weeks now, a couple of weeks now. It would be the biggest collective eating of crow for maybe you aside, but for all of us besides you. Last thing, and I want you to give a pause before you answer this. What is the NBA Finals matchup that would be most intriguing to you?

Oh?

I mean, I don't have to pause, but I'll pause anyway. I think it's Minnesota and Boston. I think Minnesota Boston would be so much fun. I mean, when you talk about the level of defense. The regular season series between these two were absolutely phenomenal. I think that the matchups being able to see Anthony Edwards go against like a Jason Tatum type, Rudy Gobert and Chris Tops for takings, Karl Anthony Towns and all the front courts, all the different machinations, everything that you would see between those two, and I think good home courts as well.

I'd be totally down with that.

Yeah, I thought that, thank you for the performative pause. By the way, I thought that that pause might make someone go, actually, you know, Minnesota, Indiana or Dallas, Boston something that but apparently not.

John, Indiana, Dallas would be incredible.

It would be incredible. Thank you so much, John, appreciate it.

Of course, anytime at me JVT for Jonathan von Tobel, co host Visa Prime Time with Tim Murray weekdays here at six pm Eastern. Coming back with Seeing Najade on Golf, Next.

Numbers game on v send these Sports Vetting Network.

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Kelly.

If I've said it once, I've said it one hundred times. Some things in life are spit free summer hassle free, but it's rare that they're both.

I can't even count how many times you've said that that is true.

Two hundred. Ladies and gentlemen.

You will notice that our next guest never goes to a gym and is not well groomed at all. He's seeing a jat host, an analyst from Monumental Sports Network in DC at Sia najad s I A n e j A D on the Twitter machine. Courtesy The Progressive guest line. He comes to us, how you doing, Cia.

I'm doing well.

I mean, listen, it feels like we're talking everything right now. We got NFL to talk about, NBA playoffs, NHL, MLB, PGA. Like I feel like people think this is a slow time of year. It's not slow at all.

I'm in that at all.

You know what else is in full throat is golf legal analysis. And I just before you get at anything else, I just I want to commend you because Kelly sent me your thread yesterday, your video. First of all, it was I just want to get here because you're an attorney by trade.

People should know that.

And this was a video of Scotty chef excuse me, of the prosecution in the Scotty Scheffler matter. I can't even call it a case. It's so ridiculous, yes, trying to argue with the judge that there shouldn't be a delay here.

It was so embarrassing, man.

It was a classic case of an attorney trying to do all the attorney things while the camera.

Is rolling and while the lights are on. And this is like what we see.

I mean, this is what I saw practicing law for thirteen years as a trial attorney. I mean, I saw this so many times, where attorneys are sometimes out there just to sort of prove themselves instead of get it right. They want to be right instead of get it right. And I thought this was actually truly embarrassing, especially considering, in my opinion, these charges probably should have been dropped within forty eight hours of actually being levied.

But the long and short of it is he.

Was arguing against a motion to continue the arraignment by a couple of weeks, mostly due to a scheduling conflict that defense council had. These things are so routinely granted that they're almost never in front of a judge because council typically agrees to them beforehand. It was like aaffable, I mean, to the extent motions to continue are not granted. It's usually when you're deep into the case and the delay is causing prejudice to the case, or if it's just completely unnecessary. But in a preliminary matter like this, things like this, like, you don't waste the court's time with things like this.

And the real irony here is.

He was trying to suggest that, hey, we don't want to treat Scotty Scheffler any different than your common, everyday citizen. By actually being an antagonist to this motion, he was actually treating Scotty Scheffler differently. The common person would have had this motion to continue granted right away. And oh, by the way, oh by the way, Gil the provision he was arguing the support for his argument was a misplaced provision.

It was actually unbelievable the when appropriate provision.

Both counsel and the judge were like, hey, this applies to remote appearances. It doesn't apply to whether the defense counsel can have a motion to continue granted. So he didn't even have like literally a leg to stand on. It was laughable, and it's part of the if I'm being perfectly honest with you, this is a very small illustration because this isn't at the end of the day, this isn't a big deal as far.

As the case is concerned.

It's an illustration of why I don't practice law anymore because of things like this that are so beyond ridiculous and so beyond a waste of people's time. It's just at a certain point you say to yourself, do I want to do this for the rest of my life?

And The answer for me was no, I.

Love that, That's very honest. Three minutes of outrage with Siaajad it lost. It literally was like the guy was going, he goes, the sky is not blue, and then the defense was like, what do you mean?

You know?

The sky is blue, it's always blue, goes and then he goes to the judges like, so the sky isn't blue, right, Like it's it's just so ridiculous, all right. Charles schwab a challenge. What are you looking for here? What's the course?

And uh?

In terms of what what does the course dictate for? Where you're looking for from the golfers themselves?

Well, first of all, speaking of Scottish Shuffler, it dictates that I want to take Scottis Shuffler like out of the market entirely because he's so good. And I do think, you know, this course doesn't necessarily emphasize his strengths.

I mean, his strengths are everywhere if I'm being honest.

But you know, you could say that this course, which is a positional kind of strategic not a plotter's course, but a strategic course where we're approach play and putting, are really going to come into play probably around the green a little bit as well, where off the tea is certainly minimized. You could make the argument that, well, maybe this isn't the tournament for Scotti Shuffler to win, especially coming off you know, having a child and having this attorney stuff kind of just lingering in his head each and every day.

With that said, like.

I'm looking for accurate players off the tee. I'm looking for guys that are dialed in with their mid irons, which I'm sure Kelly is looking for the same thing. I'm looking for some around the green play and some spike putting. I tend to look at putting a little bit more in cases like this in terms of like saving par bogie avoidance, things of that nature. So yeah, I'm looking for guys that like are kind of down the board a little bit. But I'll say this, in the outright market, I'm betting the market that most books are offering without Scotti Scheffler, so that if Scotti Scheffler wins, my outright still have a shot. Of course, I'm taking a shot with the points there. In other words, you know, a sixty to one shot all of a sudden becomes a forty five or fifty to one shot.

I'm willing to do that to avoid the Scottis Shuffler scenario.

How many books are offering that?

SIA generally Yeah, I would say most of the main books offered. I mean like two of the main actually three of the sport all three of the sports books that I use actually offer that. They offered in different ways where first of all, some of them will come out with it like straight away on Monday, some will wait until Tuesday for whatever reason. And some of them will not only offer the without Scotti Scheffler market, but they'll have another option too where they're offer it without Scotti Schffler and the other top dogs like Colin Morricow at Jordan' speif and again that cuts down the odds considerably. I don't really delve into those markets because I do think it's the Scotti Scheffler issue that is the main thing. I'm not as worried about Jordan Speed and Colin Morrikawa. But we've come to a point now where last year this wasn't being offered at all because we didn't have the dominance that Scotti Scheffler's showcasing. But books are getting smart to the fact, like people don't want to bet the outright market because Scottish Scheffler's plus four hundred or less in this case plus two seventy five. They don't want to worry about whether Scotti Schffler's gonna run away with it on Saturday, and they're not even gonna have a sweat for the last round and a half. So they're getting wise to the fact that you kind of have to offer this market too.

Makes sense, and so air go. Where did you land on the outrights?

Yeah?

I landed again without Scotti Scheffler on Stepstraka who missed the cut up the PGA Championship, which is just fine. His upside has been showcased plenty over the last couple of months.

He's shown the ability to take.

Down a tournament without Scottis Scheffler in the market. I'm getting him at a round thirty five to one again. I love his ability to spike. He's he's an accurate driver. He can be dialed in on approach and with the putting. I like Aaron Rye for the same reasons. He rates out extremely well for everybody. I see Kelly kind of nodding his head very accurate driver, very good with the mid irons, the around the green and putting is okay. I would say it's about field average, but he has really shown me something over the last couple of months. The finishing positions are there, and he's got some decent course history here as well. A couple of long shots in the outright department. Again without Scotty Scheffler, Doug gim and Daniel Berger both at sixty five to one. I'll admit that Doug GiB One is particularly shaky because I just don't think whether Scotty's in it or not. Like I don't think he has much top two equity. I don't think he has much win equity. But I'm starting to see something with his game and with the course fit where I'm like, all right, I can maybe take a dive into to Doug gimb and Daniel Berger. Listen, he was injured for a long time, but the ball striking his back. He's an excellent course fit. His history here is excellent. I'm trying to get him on the upswing. So again without the Scotti Scheffler market at sixty five to one, a guy that I know has the pedigree to win on this course and has the history that has won on this course sixty five to one.

I think that's super sneaky.

I'm smiling with the Doug gim stuff because just sort of anecdotally watching what comes up on models on golf, models from all y'all over time, Doug gh has to be the money.

I'm a model champion.

See.

I might have got on a rant on that this week's long shot. I was like, I can't do it with Kim anymore. He's always up there. It doesn't even make that much sense to me.

This week show up in every tournament. It's always well.

Approach is usually the most important stat in golf, and he is great with his irons.

Also, real quick first round leaders, because that's where you've made your Hey, Sia, what do you got there?

Yeah?

And by the way, I'll say, with these outrights, I have a lot of them, including Doug Gimm in the top forty market, with Aaron Raie, with with Daniel Berger, some long shot ctpan Ben Coles in the top forty market.

I got four first round leaders for you, Sepstraca.

These are all morning wave guys, which there will be likely an advantage for the morning wave guys as they're usually is sepstrac in fifty to one, christ John Bezetin out at fifty to one, Bazoo Bustin ech wrote at fifty to one, and Aaron Rye at fifty five to one.

Those are my.

Four, Okay, in top forties, you got Rye, Bear jer gim ct Pan and Ben Coles as well. Okay, Ben Coles five, Yeah, Ben Coles five, Siah always a pleasure, and thank you for that legal perspective it and honestly, like I felt it when you said that thing about you just wanted to get out of the profession from stuff.

Like that that hit hard. That that's interesting.

Appreciate the honest Yeah, I mean, Julie, it's one of many reasons. And I don't want to cast this over every single attorney. It's not like every attorney is like.

This, but it's stuff like this that got me out of the prevent Yeah, makes sense, makes total sense. Seeing a jot everybody at seeing Najad s I A n E j A D.

Thank you, sir, appreciate it.

Thanks everybody appreciate you.

We'll come back.

We'll dive a little more into the Western Conference finals.

A Guardian Up.

Guardian's Update, Our Daily Guardians Update. Oh it's getting interesting.

Coming up. Numbers game.

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Numbers game on Sports Betting Network.

It's the numbers game, Gil Alexander coming up. We're going to talk NFL Week one starting quarterback odds. But first here story we bought a Tony with your moment of Zin.

This is your betting moment is in, brought to you by Zen Nicotine Pouches. Find your moment is in at Zen dot com. Sir bind A Toni here with vs D Sports Betting Network. Time to talk defensive Rookie of the Year in the NFL. While Alabama ed rusher Dallas Turner didn't end up the first defensive player off the board as expected in this year's draft, the consensus All American is at the top of the board at four to one odds to bring home some rookie hardware to Minnesota. It was the Colts actually who swung first for defense at pick fifteen, taking a chance on Leatsu Latsuo out of UCLA, who at one point had to medically retire from football, came back only to lead the FBS and sacked the last two years. Newly minted Eagle Quinyon Mitchell out of Toledo at eleven to one, was the only non Power five player selected in the first round, also eleven to one. Two time All American Jared Verse, who landed with the Rams and rounding out the short shots Dolphins rookie Chop Robinson at thirteen to one. This has been your daily moment is in Learn more about Zen smoke Free nicotine pouches at zin dot com morning.

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Nicotine isn't take the chemical back on a numbers game Life of bar Canada at the d can I say on air when I said off air, my favorite Vson promo going now is Stormy going through the different sports and be like and that's why we're here, so natural as if the camera was not rolling, and she does it there again, It's fantastic Stormy, extremely talent, extremely talented. We get tweets at beating the book mark Meltzer Meltz Vegas. In case you're looking for Gill in July. Oh, he's a put up a poster of a jaw rule, Fat Joe Slick Rick Dougie Fresh Concert.

I'd like to m C one of these places. Where's that at? It is at?

Thanks for asking jow Rule, Come on, I'm I'm there, should go Jo By the way, we get a tweet from Durban p. Two four, He goes, jaw Rule has to mess everything up on that card. He said, I think it was a flight once with this with this guy who goes.

Is that jaw Rule over there? I was like, it's not Joe Rule.

Matthew Mayberry, Hey, gild you like the Pacers in this series?

I haven't heard you ment? He says, Actually, Lol, I'm with you.

I bet Pacers in seven and Celtics and six love Pacers plus two and a half games as my best bet. I'll tell you what I have, what I feel vindicated about already. Remember how I went on the rant about how ESPN ought to do better by the Pacers because they the whole First of all, the whole run up where steven A is like New York stand up, then the pregame show where he's given Spike Lee a pep talk. They're doing an arrival video for God's sakes with the players, and then steven A. Then at halftime, Bob Myers is talking about how ogn Andobe could only go four and a half minutes while the Pacers are killing the Knicks, and then down the stretch bringing Reddick and Doris Burke eulogizing the Knicks as if they've won four championships. Stop it, well, Tim Legler, do you see this? Tim Legler went on with Rosillo and he says, I've been wanting to talk about the Pacers. I can't tell you how many times I wish we had the video of how many times I want to talk about the Pacers this year. But he said it wasn't sexy enough.

That Yeah, those uncomfortable meetings in the newsroom.

Yeah, all right, this is cool.

Sorry Legs, But good job on that three point.

Shooting nineteen ninety six three point contest Jamion on the show, greatest percentage of three pointers in nineteen ninety five.

Not sure where that.

Ninety five bullets by the way, Weber, Howard Legler, George Mureschan, that's just George B and George.

What a team?

Okay, NFL? Who's playing quarterback Week one? I love these markets? Yeah, team by team, not every team obviously, some teams are obvious. But teams, particularly with rookie quarterbacks, pose a betting question and might trigger a bet from you. Let's go through these one by one. These are courtesy of DraftKings. Nice job on them to post this. Broncos Bo Nicks minus four twenty five, Jared Stidham plus four fifty Zach Wilson ten to one. That's their quarterback, Kelly. Remember it's a room in a building. That's how NFL people talk about it. Now, that's their quarterback room. You're not in the building or in the room. Bonis minus four twenty five. I would not make a bet here because Sean Payton has staking his entire reputation on Benicks.

Yeah, I think price correctly, though, like I don't know that I would be too much steeper than that, though.

I do think there is a.

Slim chance that he doesn't start Week one, but it's very slim because, as he says, you said, he's basically staked his old reputation.

Yeah, and I'm sure it's his team, Dan. I'm sure Sean Payton won't be arrogant about it the whole way through.

I'm sure he won't be at all.

There's almost like a part of me that wants to see the Broncos succeeds, so I can apologize for everything I think about them right now, because, oh my god, I think this franchise is going to be a disaster for the next five ten years.

Don't get me started.

By the way, and for those people who say, like Jean Payton is such a quarterback whisper, I'm sorry. Besides Drew Brees, can you give me the list? Drew Brees, Raiders, Gardner Minshew minus one eighty, Aiden O'Connell plus one thirty.

Hmm.

So there are a couple on here, by the way, that I would love to bet this one, but this one you would who would you bet? Yeah, the Raiders just brought in Gardner Minshew. Gardner Minshew is not starting week one for one team. After what you saw at Aidan O'Connell last year, you're rolling it back with Aidan O'Connell week one.

I'm gonna tell you the one I want to bet is the next one. The Vikings.

Sam Donald is minus one fifty five and JJ McCarthy is plus one twenty. Now for those who are like, well it's got to be j McCarthy, No, Apparently the Vikings want to do everything to start Sam Donald barring an injury. There's even some weird talk, weird buzz out there that they have this intention to play Donald, that they would play Donald the whole year if it went okay. But Game one, I would absolutely bet the minus one fifty five on Donald. Of course, injuries could crush you here, but barring an injury, I think that's the best bet on the board.

That is so glad you brought up before we go too crazy on this, because a couple of these I do really love. That is the That's the big thing, right, injuries a curry. If you're bettering this right now, it is May twenty second. There is a lot of a lot of practices, a lot of training camp to come where these guys can get injured by I'm like, this is the Vikings have basically said this is their plan all along with this is why they signed Sam Donald's right. It was to give McCarthy the time to get ready, and I guess I'd be shocked if it it really ended up taking that.

Long before McCarthy's in there playing.

But yeah no, but week one, week one, minus one fifty five doesn't seem like too steep a.

Price to pay there. They've basically told everybody this is the plan.

Sometimes you have to believe what they're telling you. That's we are going to play, Sam Donald, Okay, that's good enough for me. One it minus one fifty one Patriots. Jacoby Brissette is minus three hundred. Drake May plus two to twenty five. I think that the Patriots probably want to start Jacoby Brissett week one.

I think so too.

I think this one's properly priced, though, Yeah, like I do, I think there's a chance. I mean, if Drake May looks incredible for some reason in training camp, you're not why why put Bersett out there? Like you might as well just go right away with me. I don't think it's gonna happen. I think it's most likely Brissett starting, like you said.

But and then the biggest favorite of all these, the Seahawks.

Geno Smith is minus six hundred Sam Howell acquired from the Washington Commandeers plus three ninety.

Matt Brown and I disagreed on this one.

I believe oh who he was filled when he was filling in, I was, I thought this it was this one has moved the most.

Forget what it was was like. Geno minus two fifty or something. I say, Geno's a lockey. I was like, Gino for sure.

Yeah, I don't want to misquote Matt Matt, but I believe Matt was like, well, why would they bring in Sam Howe?

Like you're bringing in Sam, but what is Geno done wrong? I mean, I guess why would they bring in Sam Howe? But I mean he's age being a little.

Bit of a step back last year.

But I don't think there's any plans to move on from him immediately at least.

Well, here's the thing about all these things.

So you bring in Sam Howe, and I get the I get the the argument of why would you bring in Sam how The problem with this is always like, let's do it from a human perspective. So if they decided that they wanted to start Sam Howell week one, what happens if Sam Howell plays.

Bad out of a gate? Yeah? No, this is a great point, right, So it's like, you screw themselves up.

So for them, it's a much better tact to just if they have the intention, and clearly they have some intention with Sam Howe that they traded for him, if they have the intention to elevate him to QB one at some point if Gino messes up, the way to play it is to start Geno at the beginning and let that happen, right, correct, So that's the way I would view it too. Yeah, so I think Ginosmith. So I basically we have.

Seen we've seen NFL teams do stupider things, right, That makes a lot of sense to me, Gil But yeah, and it's.

Not Pete Carroll anymore. So there's that, right.

So basically, looking at all these Broncos, Raiders, Vikings, Patriots, Seahawks, I believe the best bet is Sam Darnald, believe it or not, with the Vikings at minus one fifty five.

To start with. If this is available, I bet, I bet Gardner Minshew and I bet Sam Darnold.

Yeah, I think your confidence in Minshew is starting week one is probably correct as well.

Minus one eighty.

Again, we cannot bet these, but these So whatever we do stuff that is out of state, and specifically at DraftKings, which we couldn't even if it was in state, we always like to say, would we actually bet these or not?

This is one of these where we actually would yes.

In the case of Donald and Minshew with the Vikings and Raiders specifically, but I do think it's bon Nicks. I think Bonis is Correct is a four dollar favorite. I think Jacoby b Said is Correct is a three dollars favorite in New England. And I do think Gino's Correct is a six dollars favorite in Seattle. Injuries once again can torpedo all of this, So please don't come back if somebody breaks a leg and say, oh, you're wrong.

I like this is one of those like, hey, I know we complained about ye know, different different markets being limited in and stuff like that. This is when you probably don't want to be betting heavily into anyways because of injuries, like we'd be betting. But yes, I'm not going crazy, but.

It's fun to talk about. Yeah.

I mean, if if they were let's say, if they were posting an obvious team like the Jets, then they're just posting about an injury, right.

Yeah, correct? Correct? Yeah?

The what I mean, what has it been at least last off season? I want to see the say of the off season before DraftKings has posted these. I don't remember liking bets as much as I like these too.

I like, we definitely talked about your correct. Yeah, I think you're I think you're right. In that memory, Jason Wygarten's on the other side, all his bets, how was tripped to London?

Was?

Did he wear a coat? And time?

All the burning questions. Next numbers Game Vison these sports betting network

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