A Numbers GameThe best segments from Wednesday's show!
The numbers told the story, and they always done. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
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We don't care how you're taking this and we just appreciate that you are any which way, anyway among those four, it's skill Alexander, It's Kelly Midland, producer number nine, so much more than a producer live from bar Canada here at the day.
So yo yo, it's hatting it not much. How's gone good? You said you had the best night of sleep you've ever had on a weekday here. Probably well rested, probably all right. Fell asleep on the couch at like six thirty or six forty five last night and then did the whole like slept there for I don't know, three hours or something. When you woke up, What was your first thought, Oh, like I was. I'm always scared. I don't know about you, But when you wake up on the couch, I'm like, oh God, how many hours have I slept here? Because I don't know about you. I don't get good sleep if I fall asleep on the couch, It's doesn't count as good sleep. Yeah, it doesn't count. Horizontal sleep, not horizontal sleeping man sleep. So I was I woke up and was like nine ten o'clock and then I was like, I'm just gonna go to bed, bed now, God for you man n Here you go, ladies, gentlemen, we're done. Thanks for listening for today. That's all we got.
We actually, uh, Kelly and I could talk a lot of football today because I feel like we have we have emphasized the NFC East and the AFC North for whatever reason on this show. And by the way, congratulations to me for getting AFC North correct this time, because apparently all week I've been saying NFC North Wait, I mean AFC North. So because of that, we're going to talk NFC North today and NFC West. Why don't we do that? Why don't we get through some divisions? Also, Jason Winingartan will stop by seeing a jade on golf.
I have the old roku going.
Kelly, Now you know I've I've gotten rid of cable and I pay probably triple or quadruple every single streaming service, so I'm probably paying you know, thousands of dollars a month.
It's ridiculous. I miss cable. By the way, I'm not.
One of these people like, oh thank god I got rid of cable. I'm like, no, can I get it back place I want to go back.
I'm that guy that's paying for everything and can't imagine like doing it otherwise, which is terrible, Like where I have every street how much do nothing? Like nothing? It's sports on cable, and then you watch the streaming service so on the roku that populates at the top like everything that you've I guess watched, I mean time at baseball games on it. Lets me know, hey, this baseball game on uh, you know election cycle. There's all kinds of news stations that go on.
By the way, I should read you like some of the election stuff. That's how I know we were pitch perfect on the election segment. Because now we're getting both sides that saw it all differently. It's so great. I'll read them coming up some tweets.
But and then of course you have your random murder, she wrote, Kelly, because apparently I watched murder, she wrote a couple of times, and so it's up there murder you would, She wrote, yeah, because I grew up in the eighties and it looks like it's nineteen fifty five when you're watching, like, how is this possible? This is an amazing movies and shows like just quality wise, don't hold up like that.
So the other thing that was up there was Vson popped up because I guess I've watched Vson enough a couple of few times, right, it pops up there. And so last night I decided to turn on the old Vson and vsent. Tonight was on with the great Wes Reynolds and Matt Humans and can.
We start with a little sports talk radio here.
Because they did something when I tuned into them.
They were doing so.
By the way, Wes Reynolds just an encyclopedia of all sports knowledge and beyond sports. If I say to him, Wes, what's the best Gap band album? He will immediately shoot shout back Gap Band five Gil. Of course everybody knows that. I hope you know that. Matt Humans Medical Marvel Medical Marvel Mad Humans not only putting as much fast food into his body as humanly possible.
But also has yet to locate the sunscreen aisle in your local your local drug store, so we're gonna dude gulfs every day on a T one hundred and dead degrees out just sunscreen.
Anyway, the New England Journal of Medicine should write a whole chapter on humans called like the Human's Exception or the Humans Conundrum and just do a whole probile.
That's amazing. This man is standing.
Anyway, They did a who had the better golf? Who has had the better golf season? And this is stupid of us that I didn't ask you this, you know, Monday morning. Is it Scotty Scheffler, who won the Masters, who obviously leads in money made over twenty eight million this year Xander over fifteen million this year. Scotty's won six tournaments, Xander's won two. Or is it Xander Schoffley who has gone from the guy that all of us are like, I can't believe you're betting on Xander Shoffley, he never wins anything big to the guy who has now won back to back, not back to back, but pardon.
Me two majors this year.
There was a us opening between pardon me, finishing with a sixty five in both final rounds of his winning majors, which only Jack has done before, which we talked about earlier this week. Who has had the better year? And let me before you answer, Kelly, because I see you pouring over and trying.
To come up with your answer here.
I believe Wes's conclusion was, whoever, if someone wins the Olympic goal, they're the winner.
That will be the determined. Hmmm, well, I think we need to include FedEx Cup playoffs in there then too.
And Scotti scheffer leaves and FedEx Cup points and you will have to include the playoffs.
Hey, well, I mean yeah, I have three events of a playoffs.
Scotty with almost six thousand, and Xander currently over four thousand.
I will say that I have a relatively easy I think it's an easy answer up until this point, but I think that there are Olympics and playoffs that it's tight enough that my answer could change when it's all said and done. Wow, you think it's an easy answer, it's Scotty Scheffler still, okay? I mean, I mean the six wins on the season, it's two majors versus one in favor of Shoffley. I get it. But then there's no other wins for Xandra on there. And when you're looking at where where Scotty Scheffler has one at this is where new schedules on the PGA Tour do change things. In the amount of elevated events that he won this year, which are near major like fields that you're playing in the best of the best. I mean he won one, two, three, four, four elevated events I believe is the count No. Five elevated events along four along with the masters. So that's good enough for me. That is that is better than Xanderschoffley's two major wins. Okay, it's interesting, but it is tight enough because we play such emphasis on majors. Yeah right, Jay Rodd and I talk about this in women's tennis, right, Egle wins a billion matches and a billion tournaments, right, but hey, it's still only five majors.
Which is right on pace with Serena. It's like, but oh, she's only won five majors because people put such an emphasis on the majors themselves.
I don't want to take him always start sentences. I don't want to take anything away from winning the Open Championship. But however, like there we went over it Monday, right like it is. There are some things like that. You there's some details in that tournament every year that you need to be aware of going in and going out of. And I think it applies to anybody that's bet in the three M Open this week as well. Is what can you take from last week and bring over to this week. What Billy Horschel did in the Open Championship, is that sustainable going forward? It's not really something we've seen from Billy Horschell that much this year. So how much of the luck factor does come into play? And I don't I think Xander is a little bit of an exception to that because I think he would have been there regardless of the conditions. But the conditions did set up a It's set up a leader board where there were probably there were less big names to contend with than you would have seen at the US Open, PGA or the Master.
Yeah, but if you extend it to all four majors, remember what we said, Tiger and Jordan Speet the only golfers to finish top eight and all four majors in a season since nineteen eighty until Xander did it this year. So anyway, Wes said it's yet to be determined. I think he's like I think Wes was leaning Scottie and says the Olympics will determine it, and Matt seemed to be leaning Xander. I don't want to put words in their mouth. Hank Haney, who they had a referenced in their segment as well, said it's Xander.
I do totally, I totally. I'm with Wes though that it's not settled. I can say, Cheffer now, it is not settled. I mean Xander go wins gold and then say he wins the playoffs, then yes, that's more impressive to me. What Xanders.
Anyway, I thought they did a great job with that Vsent tonight with Humans and Reynolds.
There's a lot of you got me fired up, so I'm gonna blame you for this one. There's like a lot of like interesting Gulf talk things going on right now, like Ricky Fowler, Like I caught this on Rick Gaymon the First Cut podcast this morning. Him bringing this up Ricky Fowler kind of like seemingly punting on the season is like a little weird, like he's not inside the line yet for the playoff cutoff and you've only got two more events before the playoffs start, and he's not playing this week. So you're like some of these guys, you start scratching your head over and there's just there's kind of there's a couple interesting stories like that on the PGA Tour right now that you're like, wait, what that doesn't make any sense it because just goes home to Allison. Everything's okay, I don't like it. Ricky's one of those guys like I wonder about, like Gus, he made enough money from Puma and endorsements and stuff, maybe so he doesn't want to go to live to possibly ruin endorsement stuff. Yet like he's good on money. It just doesn't matter in a season like this.
Not to bring up a tennis equivalent, but it's like the Anna corner Cova thing, right, Yeah, corner Cova never won a single tournament on the WTA Tour. She got into the top ten, right the edge of the top ten. What's never won a single tournament, made bajillions, Right, So at that point you're like, it's okay, It's.
Like I kind of thick were at that point with Ricky.
Real quick before we get to NFL talk. You did make an NFL bet yesterday, Yeah, I did.
I feel like I've been stewing on this for since the end of last season. As soon as MVP markets were posted, I finally pulled the trigger. Though Anthony Richardson, I'm in on. I think it's a little bit of like trying to figure out it was months of trying to figure out that AFC South, which I think is a bit of a nightmare. And I don't really know if I want to get involved much from a betting standpoint on any of those teams. Like we've talked about, I do think the Texans. I think the Texans are still the best team and I do expect them to take a step forward even in year two of CJ. Stroud. I just think he's that good. I think we both think that. I think CJ. Stroud is that dude that's going to keep that team going. I think this Colts team is one of like the most volatile teams heading into the season of where they could finish because we didn't see that month from Anthony Richardson. I think the defense needs some work, but man, the good stuff we saw from Anthony Richardson last year. If he can stay healthy for a whole season. I believes he is like a Josh Allen type quarterback that is a superhero type throw the team on your back. So I think it's I'd rather bet that. I'd rather bet Anthony Richardson. I got forty to one, but thirty one fine, whatever. I'd rather bet that than betting the Colts to win the division or over their win total, because if they do that type of stuff, he's probably in this conversation, good point. So I'm skipping those bets and just going to Richardson MVP.
Probably in the conversation, though he won't be a favorite. Probably if you're squeaking into the top of the division. It's an interesting play. I feel like, and this is you know, this is NFL preview guide season. We had our own here at Vson.
We have it.
Please do get it visa dot com slash Guide. Obviously we've talked about cleeve Ta's guide. Yesterday, we had Aaron shots On talking about the FTN Almanac. We're gonna have Warren Sharp on with us in a couple of weeks. So I'm in that guide mode, like just immersed. I feel like there are so many teams that have this wide variance of outcomes this year more so than another reason. I could be wrong about that that it's more so, but it feels that way. NFL Talk Next.
Numbers game on VS. The Sports Betting Network, The Visa.
NFL Betting Gude is out now, and our all new College Football Guide drops August first.
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Well, by the way, for me being that guy who complains about baseball and like not being able to watch it, like, don't worry, You're never going to miss any Mets Yankees game ever, and that amazing on national TV every single time. It's the most important thing ever. Exactly. Yeah, I know I got that feeling too.
I was talking about earlier, talking about our election segment with Jason wingardten earlier, and you know, it's fascinating again with the most literally like ninety percent of these were We're just so positive, right, Ryan Hyatt, great stuff this morning. Key thing here as a nonpartisan look at the reality of the betting markets, no more, no less. That was what we were going for. But here's how I know the segment ended up, okay, Kelly, because yesterday we got feedback from both sides and I want to, I want to, I want to see if I can find them.
We'll get to the bomeetarily. But they were, oh, here you go.
This is from this is from Mariner's Geek, who we love very much. Mariner's Geek said that was an awful segment, Gil, maybe one of your worst, and I'm a huge fan of yours. Find people who know what the blank they're talking about. It's not this guy. So he didn't like Jason Jason's viewpoint on things, and that was quickly followed by Rayal Cormier, who said Gil failed to address the fact that the twenty twenty election was effectively stolen. The three am pause of counting that had never happened before, the fake water pipe burst, the tons of mail in ballots that had never been seen, the blocking of the windows so the poll watchers couldn't see in. So when he talks about sharp sports betters being dogs at politics betting, it's not factoring that in.
That's all I know.
The segment was perfect because we got both sides. How you know it's dead on. Okay, this is h Let's see, let's get to something from last night. Oh teasers and parlays, he said, Man two bad schemes gave up that second run.
In the ninth Last night, Cardinals beat the Pirates two to one, but Skeins was great.
It would have been interesting to see what Tom Tango's model had if he had finished with a complete game and just one earned run. Here's your Tom tangos cy Young model.
Update American League Seth Lugo, Edging Trek Scuble Right now, that's your guy. You got seven, So goes my guy.
Yeah, I have I have a bet on him, Edging Trek Scooble. Though, you know what's that you talk about what's sustainable and what's not.
We might be in trouble there.
Corbyn Burns third a distant third National League Sale one Wheeler two Raynaldo Lopez three, Skeens nowhere to be found. He just really isn't No, He's just nowhere to be found. But yeah, it might have been.
Interesting, wasn't that? It's isn't it personally because the innings innings? Yeah, technically because the innings.
Tango's formula, by the way, Skeens is all the way down thirty four point one. When I'm talking about Sale at the top. That's these are Tango points. He's at forty nine.
Again. The formula is very simple.
Innings pitch divided by two minus earned runs plus strikeouts divided by ten plus wins. You don't have to memorize that, but it has a lot to do with just baseball card stats. And yes, getting to one hundred and fifty innings is huge and Skeens may or may not get there.
Saw this from Sarah Ling's This Mornings. Skeen's first pitcher was so or more strikeouts in at least eleven of his first twelve career appearances since at least nineteen oh one.
You remember that season, Yeah, Rick coppro Gill, the super Book shut down their app in all jurisdictions except Nevada. I think that's something you would take joy in reporting. Never never enjoy people losing their their jobs. And just to follow vs and Bob, Bob came in this week said hello, just to follow Vison King. Thank you, Bob. We'll always love when people come and say hello. Let's start with a little NPC North. I'll read some more tweets coming up NFC North, where the Detroit Lions are your favorite, but closely followed by the Green Bay Packers to win the division. Then it's the Bears not that far behind, to be honest with you, and then the Vikings. One of these teams is not like the others. The Vikings are distant ten to one to win this division. Kelly, I'll start with the We'll start with the Let's start with the Bears, just because who are the third shot to wear this with number one pick? Caleb Williams. Now again, I'm in preview guide mode, so I'm gonna try to give some context on each of these teams that is not like commonly given, and we're gonna lean on Aaron Shotts, who was on the show yesterday. Caleb Williams, we all say, coming into a great situation. How great per Aaron shots By the way, Lions with the season win total of ten and a half plus one fifty to win this division, Packers nine and a half plus two ten to win the division, Bears eight and a half season win total plus two sixty five, and then it's the Vikings at ten to one with a six and a half season win total. So how good of a situation is according to FTN and Aaron Shotts, Caleb Williams walking into a situation that, by their numbers, represents the best supporting cast for a number one pick over the past twenty five years and the second best for a top twelve pick, behind only Dante Culpepper, who he remembers the eleventh overall pick, entered a situation with Randy Moss and Chris Carter.
Now he didn't play his rookie year really, but that's the only situation.
Really, you have to go to Randy Mawson and Chris Carter to find a better situation that a top twelve drafted quarterback is entering. That's context obviously, Dj Moore, it's Keenan Allen, it's Romadunze.
As his receivers.
DJ Moore last year thirty percent of the team's targets, forty percent of the team's receiving yards. That won't be the case this year. That's, of course, without even mentioning Cole Comet. Defense had a second half turnaround. That was another thing. They acquired Montes' Sweat from the Commanders and that went very well. They went from thirtieth in defensive DVOA from weeks one to nine to sixth from weeks ten to eighteen. So you got Shane Waldron replaced actually Shane Waldron replacing Luke Getzi on offense to go along with kayleb b. Willoms, and they got a defense then improved second half. So that's what a Bear stand are. People probably more bullish on them because things on paper don't often work out. I'm thinking so like, I feel like the betting market is a little too bullish on them, But I did not have a I don't have a bet on either way.
I don't, Yeah, I I mean, I think if you've said this eighteen times already in osced teen times more before probably the season begins, I don't think there's nearly as big of a separation between where the Bears and Vikings rosters are and then therefore where their odds are on this graphic, compared to where the Bears and Packers are, Like, I think there is. I agree with that. I think the Bears are much further back from from where the Lions and Packers are at the top. And I and I think the Vikings are better better than really what the what the odds are saying in the more, and I don't have a bet on them. But because I think you're dealing with both situations. You're talking about likely rookie I mean, we know one rookie quarterback and then likely another rookie quarterback at another point, I think I think it's the Bears and Bears betting has been fascinating to watch this offseason because I think, I know, I know guys I respect that are on both sides of this.
This is what gets back to my point for the last segment. I feel like, I mean, I'm maybe I'm being prisoner at the moment, but I feel like this year there are more teams that you genuinely have no idea how they're gonna end up.
Yeah, I don't know about you, though. This is this team specifically and the Bears in total. I have seen in the betting guy to Fix is a great example, and I think it's mainly guys. I think I saw a lot of the same bets that I have where I bet the I bet the alt over under, so I'm laying like minus one sixty, but I'm betting under nine and a half wins for the for the Chicago Bears. I mean, that's like, it's a great situation. He's Caleb Williams is going into there's no doubt about second best of the last quarter. Secon should argue that, can you argue that, yeah, like it probably is, but like it's still very very lofty expectations for a rookie quarterback in a very tough division in my opinion, and when you're talking about nine, like nine wins, a guy gets still have a winning season. I can get that bet home.
And although his senior year was not as spectacular as his junior year, his stats were great like his Honestlyayln Williams talking about at USC, let me just talk about the Vikings before the break. Remember they bounced between Dobbs Hall and Nick Mullins after the Kirk Cousins injury last year. Second half of the season twenty eighth as a result in passing DVOA from weeks ten to eighteen not good, That was after Dobbs had his great moment there early. But then in the aggregate of it all, they were twenty eighth out of thirty two in DVA passing DVA from weeks ten to eighteen. They signed Sam Darnold to a one year deal worth ten million. Then they made some kg draft maneuvers that got them to only have to move up one place to get JJ McCarthy. Remember they still had enough draft capital to then do other things on defense as well. They end up getting some defensive help as well on the Justin Jefferson their quarterback room, if you will, the quarterback room, as people like I said, not taking a big part of the salary cap. Justin Jefferson getting the most of the salary cap remembers Aaron Jones now in as they're running back. They're starting running back, and he really still even though he's getting older. Among thirty seven backs with at least seventy carries with a quarterback under center last season, Jones second in success, right behind only Karen Williams of the Rams. The big thing with the Viking just trying to give contacts where others may have not. Brian Flores. On defense, they have the most chaotic and arguably the most perplexing unit in the league. They blitzed on fifty point seven percent of opposing dropbacks, highest blitz rate for any team since twenty fourteen.
But the high blitz rate didn't always work. They ended up only twenty first in pressure rate and ranked twenty ninth in DVOA when they sent six or more pass rushers, but because they're always throwing pass rushers in, when they only rushed two or three, they were actually actually be three or four. They were really.
Good because the opposing offenses are like, well, I don't know if they're setting six. So it's this weird effect. So a lot is still relying on Brian Flores. The Vikings though ten to one, even with the Dallas Turner. Help now on defense coming through ten to one to win this division. We'll come back more on this next.
Numbers game on VSAID these Sports Betting Network.
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Yeah yeah, yeah, that's want to point that out. Had a great one. I had a great lunch theory yesterday. General Admission I'll be doing the same thing today.
I think you before we get to see a sea is standing by Sia Najad before you you very innocently you looked over your shoulder and you said to me, Gil, what the hell is this? I believe is what you said. And my answer to you is, this is actually the Olympics. This is before the opening ceremonies. They're playing soccer. This is legitimate Olympics right here you're watching.
Are there other sports doing that? I mean, this is a little things. So I think this is the first. This is it so far? Okay?
And you also correctly asked the question. You asked two other great questions. One, who the heck is Argentina playing because it says m A R. Yeah, it's Morocco. And then your even more poignant question was, wait, they're beating Argentina.
Isn't this an upset?
Because it is two to one in the eighty sixth minute in favor of Morocco.
What's the line on this? Why is my boys?
Know?
But also like men's like men's soccer in the Olympics, right, like they don't roll anybody out for women's soccer? Is that how it goes? Yeah, women's soccer. I think you still get like the elite players men's soccer, like Argentina does. This is like their C squad le's go Israel counting on you like this is where I think this is like the only reason why teams like Morocco have a chance against Argentina is because of that.
You've cracked the code once again, Kelly Binlin. Everybody, ladies and gentlemen. He comes to us courtesy the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at Sia Najade that's at that's si A n e j A D. And he comes to us tucking football and golf is all way. We love having him from the DMV, the Monumental Sports Network.
It's seeing the shot how you don't see him. I'm doing really well.
I'm excited to talk both golf and NFL where Darren sprolls days away from NFL kickoff.
Very exciting stuff.
That means forty three right, that's right, forty three. I do that with old Skins jerseys. By the way, I tell people all the time, I remember phone numbers that way. I'm like Charlie Taylor, Larry Brown that way. Do you do that at all mnemonics.
Well, the player I used, yes, I do. But the player I used yesterday when I did one of my other shows at the Early Edge was John Riggins. So I'm always paying homage. And when there was you'll like this Gil, when there was fifty two days from football season, I used Neil Olkleway, a reference that only I got.
But it was still worth that you didn't give it to me because I'd have gotten a heartbeat. Me and my buddies we exchanged when they turn a certain age, we're like, hey, mel Kaufman, right.
Like we And it's funny how you do that from the players largely of your childhood right like it's a rare player of modern day. The way our brains work in evolution, how how much our childhood teams mean to us? All Right, we just talked, Kelly and I did about the NFC North where the Lions are the short shot, but the Green Bay Packers are closely lined behind them. After Jordan Loves great emergence last year the Bears, and we just discussed. According to FTN, Caleb Williams going into the second best situation of any quarterback drafted in the top twelve in the last twenty five years, only Dante Culpepper going into a situation with Randy Moss and Chris Carter was better than the one that Caleb Williams is coming into.
So you have not only the Lions at ten and a half, Packers nine and a half, Bears eight and a half, but you've got to win the division plus one fifty plus two to ten and plus two sixty five respectively. Vikings are a different story. They're at six and a half. They're at ten to one to win the division. Kelly is giggling. I have no idea.
Why Olympics is under twenty three.
Apparently under twenty three. That's why Morocco was peeding Guardentina.
Sorry see Vegas regular Sorry see I go ahead, please answer the question.
Well, well, first of all, I think it's under twenty three, but you have three players that are allowed to be over that age, so I think you get like a three veteran maximum. But still, to Kelly's original point, like this is definitely not the A team on the men's side, so that's why you're seeing Morocco potentially.
I'm sure it's an upset regardless.
But speaking of upsets, I mean when we talk about the NFC North, I think the odds are properly aligned here. I like, listen from a Super Bowl. If I'm looking at like Super Bowl odds, I do. I'm more intrigued by the Packers number because I think that offense is like really hard to stop. And I do think they made some upgrades on defense that are that are worth, you know, kind of moving lines or appreciating a plus nineteen hundred to win the Super Bowl. But the Lions are the team that's stacked on both sides, and they had an unbelievable off I should say off season on the defensive side of the ball. They still have the offense, and of course the home games. I think Kelly mentioned that last segment where you know, indoor they get to play a lot. So I would choose the Lions here. From a wintal standpoint, I think the Bears fall at eight. I do agree Caleb Williams is in a great situation. I thought that this defense really stepped it up once they got Montes sweat late last year. Obviously, the offense should be good. I think they're gonna be at eight wins. I kind of like the under in that one. I like the Packers as a long shot super Bowl winner, but if I'm talking just division, the Lions at plus one point fifty is probably the play here.
You got the Packers as the team with the three starting pitchers that could make some noise in the postseason.
Basically, that's exactly right, and it's part of the reason. Part of the reason for that is because it's plug and play at the receiver position. The way this offense works. I mean, we're talking Dontavian Wicks or Christian Watson or Jaden Reid like name the player.
They've got a.
Couple of tight ends that are really good too. That offense is really hard to stop. And once it gets humming, I don't care who you are like that, they're going to put points on the board. So it's just a matter of their defense stepping up. I think in terms of the NFC, I think it's really four teams. It's the Niners. It's in this order, the Niners, the Lions, the Packers, and the Eagles probably tied for that third spot. I think any of them can win. But for me, it's really the nine and the lines. If those teams stay relatively healthy, yeah.
I'm with you on the Eagles being there, Like, I agree with the sentiment that I don't know that Jalen Hurts picks up on the Kellen Moore offense as any transition would be, right. I don't think the Eagles start out that quickly. Okay, Let's get to golf. The three M Open, otherwise known as the tournament after the Open Championship. Tony Fe now eleven to one, Sam Burns eighteen to one, Oshka Pattilla at twenty to one, Sahthagala at twenty two to one, as well as Billy Horschel, who had himself a run at the Open Championship.
He's also at twenty two to one. Let's start with the outrights.
Yeah, this is interesting because I treat this because it's after the Open. I almost treat this like an ault event like we had with the Barracuda and the Isco the last two weeks. And I actually did really well in those tournaments, partly because I didn't flirt with the top of the board. I kind of went down the board a little bit when it came to.
The first round.
Leaders into the outrights, and I've done really well. I hit Nick Dunlap last week at forty five to one, we'll get to first round leaders. But I also had Ben Silver at sixty to one, So I like these tournaments quite a bit because those favorites are going to gobble up a lot of the money and it pushes some of the odds down for players that are either just as talented or maybe even more talented, or at least have the potential to be for four rounds. Luke Clanton is one of those guys. He is obviously new on the scene, but his talent and his course fit even though he hasn't played here before. I think at twenty five to one, if he reads this course right and he takes the correct chances. He's so good off the tee with the accuracy, and of course with the length, he can really get hot, and on a course like this if he doesn't find the water, I think he can win. Keith Mitchell is an interesting case at thirty five to one. A horrific putter, but he's played here two out of three times and it's pretty crazy. He's gained with the putter in a big way. Now, the corollary to that is that he's lost on approach, but that's an unusual thing for Keith Mitchell, and I think now that he's been at this course a few times, he's going to kind of correct the mistakes with the ball striking. He's still finished really well. The last two times here he's finished fifth each time, and that's with poor approach play. So I think he has a ton of upside some downside too. JT really good course fit. The recent form has been pretty sketchy, but really like JT post at thirty five to one and then finally a couple of bombs Ben Griffin at fifty to one. Approach play putter looking for that here with Ben Griffin and then Ben Coles. The Ben Coles five, he's one hundred and seventy to one in some places, one hundred and fifty to one hundred twenty five to one in other places. I just love his metrics. I think he's got a shot because of his approach and putting game, and he's pretty accurate off the t as well.
All Right, I buried the headline you sent me in Kelly a text this week. Would you like to tell everybody? Why? Yeah?
Well, you guys say I'm the first round leader King and it really hasn't been that way much of this year, although I did hit Aksha bat at sixty five to one a couple of months back, I believe at the Balero. But two weeks ago at Theisco, I hit a sixty to one Pierson Cooty first round leader. Last week at the Barracuda, I hit a sixty to one Ben Silverman first round leader. I've been really hot in that department, and I've I got a lot of bombs for this week, including one sixty to one shot. So maybe we can make it three in a row at plus six.
Thousand, maybe we can. What do you got? Who's your firstround leader? You have? But you have a bunch of these you're betting.
I have a bunch and they're mostly long shots and just full disclosure here, I mean these are kind of like sprinkle bets. There's usually one or two that I'll put a few more bucks on, but the rest I'm putting like two to three bucks on because the odds are so long. I've got seven here total. Two are in like the oh my gosh range in terms of triple digits. Keith Mitchell at fifty to one, Nick Dunlap at fifty to one. I mean he just won the tournament last week. His temperament is such that I think he'll be firing on all cylinders.
Round one.
Ben Griffin is the sixty to one shot. I'll mention Ben Griffin and JT Posting were my first clicks from.
An outright standpoint.
He's my only sixty to one shot here, and I've been good with the sixty to onees over the last two weeks. So maybe we make it a triple with Ben Griffin.
The other ones.
Lee Hodge is seventy to one, Chandler Phillips at one hundred to one, and Ben Cole's at one hundred and ten to one. Again sprinkle bets, but I do like that Ben Griffin at plus six thousand.
Ben Hooper walk away from the table when you're on a heater, that's what see it right right? See it?
We rarely get the group text from CUS, so we knew something was up.
We're like, oh, and see it? Do I like cocky Sea? It was a little bit of a cock It was great, It was awesome.
It was but on fire Man seeing a job for the Monumental Sports Network and the DMV. Thank you, Cia, as always for your thoughts on both football and golf. Man, we appreciate good luck with the first round.
All right, fellas, see you soon, my man.
At s I A n E j A D. We talked to NFC North. Why don't we talk some NFC West on the other side. Maybe we'll start at the top of this time. It's a numbers game at the Sports Betting Network.
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That could be, that could be. It's good point, painper well done. I just want to follow up on a couple because we talked to NFC North and NFC Wests so far. I just want to remind.
People Cleave ta because a lot of people are betting Jared Goff to win MVP, Mike Sammich one of them.
My god, I think I saw him down at like twenty to one yesterday. So I just want to remind people Cleave's opinion on this. He says, I don't want to ruffle any feathers because I think I think I've heard like four or five guys say that they have golf. It is the most popular MVP pick I've heard.
And we know how that usually works. Out, but he goes, he goes. This is Cleaves talking.
He says, he goes. I mean Detroit won twelve games, He finished second in the NFL in yards and fifth and touchdowns and didn't even sniff one vote. There is an inherent bias against him forever because he's a system quarterback and Detroit throws it at the seventh lowest rate in neutral situations. They don't even fully trust him. He should be double the odds in my opinion, that's just then. And as far as brock Purty, this according to the again leaning on the FTN Almanac, because it's preview guide season and we're, for god's sakes, it's still July, so we're just sort of aggregating opinions. The jury on brock party right, because that was, like we debated this. This was the big debate really of the regular season last year. Is brock Purty a MVP? Obviously until they played the Chiefs, right, was it the Chiefs of the Ravens. I can't remember now, until they had the bad game the Ravens, I'm forgetting it was the Ravens and they just and they crapped out.
But the debate the FTN settles it by saying this, and I think this is about this is a very neutral statement, Truse. I think most people would would agree with. They say that they find Purdy to be a very good quarterback who raises San Francisco's offensive floor but puts up elite statistics because he has been handed the best situation in the NFL Ayu Kandel, McCaffrey, et cetera. Who, by the way, San Francisco is the second team to ever have players in the top three in their other stat d ya are at wide out, running back, in tight end, and the first to do so.
In a full season. So that's the situation he.
Finds himself in. That doesn't mean he's not good. That means he's still very good. That gets elevated by the people around him. And that also means that when his continent his rookie deal expires, the Niners have no choice.
But to pay him in if it goes well this year. Yeah, and like I'm very pro perty, I think the the where there where That why it becomes a conversation, right, it's because, okay, we get it, like it's a it's a rookie who is drafted late. So you automatically have doubts about the guy, so you when he has success, you want to give more of the probably more of the credit to the situation than it deserves. So like I understand why it was a debate last year, and I don't really know that we still have a complete answer to that. Either. You can't punish him for being surrounded by good players and playing great exactly. Seahawks are fair. Of course it helps him too, you know what I mean.
Of course, of course no one's saying it doesn't, but that's what he's doing on the field. Seahawks are seven and a half. That's the season win total. They're seven to one to win the division. And again talk about like fascinating NFL teams. I as much as we make of coaching, we don't make enough of it. So Seahawks defense over the last fourteen years, according to Dboa, they went from thirteenth to twentieth to twenty second to twenty eighth. That's not good. This ain't the legion of boom anymore. And they had veterans at age out of their prime. Draft picks failed to pan out, and Pete carroll scheme just didn't and it just didn't involve with the modern NFL philosophically. He wanted to run the ball, he wanted to play defense. And they make this great point at FTN Almanac. They said he's not one to take unnecessary he was not one to take unnecessary risks on offense, which gradually Kelly transitioned into someone not willing to take.
Necessary risks on offense. I think that's a great sentence. He finished twenty fifth out of thirty five in last year's aggressiveness Index, and only four teams lost more win probability by kicking when they should have gone for it than your Seattle Seahawks under Pete Carroll. That's not to say he wasn't a great coach. He was, but it kind of ended poorly through the last year's time had passed him by. Don't worry like Nick Saban's good. He has a cushy off Sure they'll consult him every day, and I'm sure he's there all day.
So Rams defensive former Rams defensive coordinator Mike McDonald, which Kelly points out not only is going to be confusing with Mike McDaniel. Michael McDonald of the Doobie and solo career but also that he spells his name without a capital letter beyond the M.
I'm gonna screw that up for some of the hay the graphics, I'm gonna screw that up a lot.
So they go from the oldest coach in the league to the youngest. And here's the thing with with Mike McDonald. Everything he did in Baltimore was fantastic. And his whole defensive thing is he wants to confuse the offense. His hallmark is nobody knows where anything is coming from, and that includes like defensive linemen backing, backing up into pass coverage. He just changes his game plan from a defensive game plan on a game to game basis. That's what great coaches do. They don't say this is my system and it works against everything. That's the Marty Schottenheimer way. No, the Joe Gibbs way is no, I'm a Taylor, my ex'es and o's to who I'm playing because I'm that smart about football.
That's Mike mcdaliel. It's a great hire. Mike McDonald. I just did what was that you were saying? Uh about the show?
Oh?
Yeah, that's right. So anyway, they he held in Baltimore Brock Party to atago I Loa Jared Goff within his first second third DVOA. He held them to like combine thirty nine percent success. Right, that's how good they were. But here's the deal.
So Geno Smith, right, another one of these quarterbacks that people have trouble, you know, trouble sort of evaluating Gino Smith, they say very sort of neutrally good enough that you don't have to worry about the position while they patch their other eight zillion holes. And by the way, that moment in the summer where people are like, I don't know Sam Howell could start, they point out that was the insane. Sam Howell committed more negative plays than any other quarterback in the league. Last Remember we saw those opening odds for the week one starters.
What were we talking about. We're like minus three hundred. That's it. I'll watch Sam Hewl.
Here's the biggest point about the Seahawks, though, I want to make this with Mike McDonald's is that correct?
Yeah?
With his defense, the way that his defense works. When you have all that Baltimore personnel and are veteran players largely, then you're in the system for a while. You get all of the machinations of it.
Right.
Oh now we're sending three. Oh now we're sending Oh now we're sending it from this direction. Oh now we're sending it for this direction. Oh, you're dropping back. You're doing this on a play to play, game by game basis. Now, though, you have a young group of players who are going to have to learn this system. And so the point about the Seahawks, and this gets into like making bets mid season, this is going to be a steep learning curve for this defense. That's the point that they really wanted to make about the Seahawks. It's going to be a very steep learning curve early, but by the end of the season they could be a way better version than they were.
In the first half. We just talked about a number of cases where teams started out poorly and ended strong, or started out good and then ended poorly. So that's the thing with the Seahawks. By the end of the year. Could they be competing for a wildcard spot, Absolutely, but it could be really ugly early and they get to play a lot of their wildcard contents are potential wildcard contenders, at least on paper. In November, like three different ones. So they will be able to control their own fates still even if they start poorly. So that's why the seawings that they represent a lot of teams, all of that in the mix. Do you really have a bet on them one way or the other? I don't, I do? You did?
Do?
I actually just this is my most recent I guess I made Athay richardson last night, but I've been thinking about that for like four months. You fired Settle Seattle. I did. I made a bet. I think this past weekend it was or Friday or something like that, and I don't. This is where there's a couple of teams I've got circled to kind of wait and see on different situations in season, and it kind of as you're speaking to with them. Problem is, guil if with this team, you get Broncos and Patriots right off the bat, so you know you kind of expect wins to come early, even even if the defense is still figuring some things out. I think those are some two teams you want to get started with. This team dealt with the fifth most injured offensive line last year. Just shuffling all that or all that around was a nightmare. You get a new offensive coordinator in who Brian Grubb, guy from Washington. We saw the offense he ran there with Pennix. You're gonna see a lot more of those three wide receiver sets. When we talked, we were talking big time last year head and end of the year about Jackson Smith and the Jigbu getting out there in the three wide receivers. They got receivers. That's yeah, sure that they're gonna be able to roll out. I just think this is more of a handicap of the rest of the NFC and I at two to one for them to make the playoffs, it was a bet for me. I think they do get in as one of those wild card teams. So I like them at two to one. I do think they're gonna end up usually probably the second team in the NFC West, behind the forty nine ers, but ahead of the Rams is where I have them, So two to one, and then it also did translate to a Mike McDonald a Coach of the Year bet. I think using a lot of those cleave Ta guardrails that we kind of set in place of a team that needs to improve by a certain amount, I think this is a team that could do that this next season and get into that category of you know, eleven wins something like that, getting into the playoffs and get your Coach of the year. So I made Mike McDonald Coach the Year bet, and I made the Seahawks to make the playoffs. I may end up with a Mike McDonald Coach of the Year bet. I think he's the best hire out there.
Who's the surprise team in the NFC this year? Who's the team that comes out of nowhere?
Still don't know, they don't know. Somebody will. Cardinals could be better than we think they're gonna be. We will talk about the Cardinals coming up. We haven't left them out.
But first Jason Weingarten on the other side with all his bets. It's a numbers game at Visa these sports betting network
