Here is the best of today's A Numbers Game as hosts Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon recap the weekend in sports. Drew Dinsick joins to talk about the NBA Playoffs and Paul Carr joins to talk about soccer.
The numbers told the story.
Now he's done. It's along those idiots we leave in analytics.
This is a Numbers game with Gil Alexander.
Good Tuesday morning to you. It is the Numbers Game at Visa d Sports Betting Network, Visa dot Com Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However, you're taking a sim we appreciated. It's Gil Alexander, it is Kelly Midland. Everybody so producing number nine so much more than producer. I was walking out of here yesterday and someone was like, hey, tell producer number nine. I said hell. I was like, you mean Kelly. He's like, yeah, Kelly. I was like, oh no, I don't know if Kelly be said about that. Good What a time to be alive. What a week. That's right. NFL Draft a little more than forty eight hours away. Guardians controlling their own destiny. Now we'll talk about that later. Good news, bad news, Still games to be played as the bad news. Drew Dinsik will join us to talk NFL Draft. We'll talk NBA playoffs with him. Tennis Sporer on baseball, Paul Carr on the Premier League. We got some midwek Premier League. Eric Eager, how about Eric Gager showing up suomer Sports later this week. We hope to get cleave Ta to talk draft with us as well. As the draft approaches. We must beget oh before we begin tennis overnight again. Visa dot Com slash picks, every host, every guest here at VSON, no matter the sport, All of our picks are logged at VSA dot com slash bets. Is Visa dot Com slash bets or Visa dot Com slash picks. Let me see what's going on with me right now? I think it's picks. I think it's picks. Something's happened to me Visa dot Com slash picks, and so it's all there. We just hit our fifth clay court tennis match in a row overnight on a rancher rus getting by Brenda Fruvertova, and we have one more coming up this morning. This is Madrid now. The ladies start today, the men start tomorrow. This is a one thousand, so it's the highest thing outside of a slam. In other words, in Madrid, it will be Madrid, will be roam, and then it'll be the French Open. The one remaining this morning is as we go for our sixth straight winner is on a Bogdon. On a Bogdon is the play this morning. Let me see if the price is Ryan, I should probably have done that beforehand. But on a Bogdan is taking on Wang Gu. Bogdon spelled Kelly for those who need to know this.
Information, Donovic without the Witch, without the o Witch.
Oh Vich you say that, Yeah, she still at a price that you can play, right, She's plus money. So play it on a Bogdon against Wang Gu? Is the play should start this morning? All right? NBA? Last night, oh my god, they said this many times. I agree wholeheartedly. It's the greatest double header in TNT history last night. Oh okay, greatest double header.
Yeah, I feel like there was a lot of people leaping to that conclusion immediately.
But it was. I mean, it was awesome. I'm not gonna say it wasn't great. And guess what it didn't include Cleveland and Orlando. Cleveland took it two to nothing lead in that best of seven first round series. There you go, it's the double header started with the Sixers and the Knicks. Knicks came into the game up one to nothing in what was one of the two competitive games of the of the game ones if you will around the NBA game two last night, will just go through the end of it. It's one hundred to ninety six Sixers with Kyle Lowry going to the line with forty seven seconds left in the game to try to make it a six point lead, a great career fear throw shoot. He makes one of two h one o one ninety six six Ers forty seven seconds left. What's the Sixers win probability at that point? Up five? Oh man, good call. I wish, I wish I had the exact number for you, but I didn't. I didn't look at that moment. Uh Nick's come down court. Jalen Brunson is frantically dribbling the ball down the court. They're throwing the ball around. It gets back to Brunson. He hits a three, an amazing three because he is not having a good game and he really in clutch situation, hits it twenty seven seconds left, one oh one ninety nine six Ers. Lowry then nobody's calling a time out here, Kelly Kyle Lowry decides not to call timeout and in fact inbounds it probably way too quickly to Tyrese Maxi, whose arm gets tangled, probably gets bumped. The ball goes high in the air. Maxi recovers it but falls to the ground. Traveling is not called. He tries to pass it through Heart's legs to Lowry. Stolen by Heart, gets it to divin Sceenzo, who misses a three. Hartenstein crashes the boards, nobody thinks about boxing them out, murders Lowry in the process, kicks it to Anenobe while he's falling to the ground. He gets it to DiVincenzo again, who without even any conscience, shoots another three, this time good, and just like that, the Knicks are up one A What a sequence that was one two, one oh one, Ben Stiller and MSG going ballistic. Thirteen point one seconds left. Lowry has to be helped to the bench. The places Pandemonium sixers down one. Then Maxi coast to coast to the rim. I don't know if it was blocked by Hardenstein or if just his momentum made him miss it. Either way, rebound Anenoby, he gets foul. He makes both with six point six seconds left. Now keep in mind it's still a three point game. Nicks don't foul. It gets to a bead who just gets it off in time? No good Nicks with the first half of the greatest doubleheader in DND history. What a finish, and the Knicks go up in the series two games to none with a one o four one oh one win. They do not cover. Uh, Sixers ats gets the money the adjusted series price, by the way, Game three in Philly. Uh, the Sixers are four and a half point favorites. The adjusted series price on the Sixers is plus three point fifteen ish shop around Would you if you didn't have your Sixers futures, would you dip on that?
No?
I thought it was gonna be a little longer, actually, because because we talked about that yesterday and I said, I said I might be jumping in on that side, I thought it was gonna be a longer number, and not at that price.
I'm not.
Now now I'm gonna meg mega Sixers fan. Let's just rooin them on. Let's go embiid Uh. I mean I laid the points with the Knicks last night that didn't get there obviously. The uh the big story this morning the timeouts. You and I were talking a little bit about it before the show, But man, that was I mean Lowry Lowry inbounded the ball too quickly. That's the biggest storyline that's really not getting talked about enough. You're too much of a veteran who have done that. You were too much of a veteran who have done that. And that's when you saw Nick Nurse. He almost pump fakes the time out because he doesn't have enough time to get to call time out Lowry and bounds the ball and then I don't really know what the like the still frame I keep seeing this morning. Okay, when Nurse calls the time out, the ball's out of Maxi's hands at the ball point, he doesn't have control.
Of the ball. So everybody's losing it over that this morning. I know the Sixers are appealing.
What they're sending something to the NBA off is about the officiating the last two games that one. I was at that point, I'm not going to cover my knicks spread, so I should be rooting for the Sixers.
So I'm saying this.
Through completely unbiased glasses here like that was there was no time out that should have been called. I'm a little surprised Maxi didn't make that layup. You were talking about that like how Maxi, how quick he got down the other end. I was like, oh my gosh, after all that Maxi's about if you're going.
At that speed, sometimes you know that won't go. The thing about it is, though, like, if Embiid is healthy, does he bock out Hardenstein?
Does?
He looked miserable game miserable by the way, with the one hundred and one points scored by the sixers, he and Maxi had sixty nine of them. I mean it was just a two man show. Really, yeah, it really was. And so you know, Embiid, though after the game, says we're gonna win this series. We're gonna win this series. You'll see gouts bounced back from that. Do feel bad for the guy? I mean, it's just he's doing everything he can out there. He's clearly hampered, and then he's still putting up monster numbers. Lakers and thirty four points, ten rebounds, Lakers and Nuggets that hold my beer. Lakers led by twenty early in the third quarter, they led by ten after three uh Nuggets got it to eighty three eighty one with six forty five left, but two Lebron threes back to back got it back to an eight point Lakers lead eighty nine eighty one ninety three eighty nine. Lakers teams have been trading buckets. Jokics just used his ad down load, amazing fake and under under and one a three point play after the free throw. Ninety three ninety two Lakers with two twelve left, Reeves missus a three, but Lebron steals the ball streaking jam not actually streaking, streaking down courts. If he was actually streaking, that would be a story streaking jam. Ninety five ninety two Lakers, one twenty three left. Eight seconds later, after Aaron Gordon makes the unsung play of the day, saves a contested loose ball that was headed out of bounds, gets it to Porter Junior twenty nine footer, nothing but nylon ninety five all one point fifteen to go. Russell to the rack though, ninety seven to ninety five. What a game he played? One oh three left time out Denver bookmark that one because Lebron had things to say. Then a foul on Lebron Murray, who was four of seventeen the first three quarters of this game, hits two free throws ninety seven a piece fifty eight seconds left. Then Lebron to the rack ninety nine to ninety seven with forty eight seconds left, then Murray a twenty footer from the right elbow to tie it back up at ninety nine. I cannot tell you how many times out loud by myself, I'm going, oh my god, like, how are they hitting these shots? Thirty seconds left? This is Jamal Murray from the playoff run last year. Yeah, it was amazing. Playoff Jabal Murray man thirty seconds left. Lakers ball tie game. Lebron basically shoves KCP down and finds himself so wide open with sixteen seconds left that I guess he forgot about with time and he was just like, well, I'm this wide open, I gotta shoot this. He clanks the three, no good rebound porter Junior, no timeout called. He gets it to Murray sixteen foot fade away on the baseline over a d good the buzzer bang shot. Nuggets win at one oh one ninety nine. Denver had not led since five to three with just over two minutes into the game. Into the ball game, largest blown lead for the Lakers this season. Oh my god, what a night of basketball. And the Nuggets go up two games to nothing in the best of the seven first round series. The Lakers adjusted series price not nearly as short as the Sixers as you might imagine, plus eight seventy five. Denver a one point favorite in Game three in LA. Does it make you I feel like you answer? You asked me these questions all the time?
Are you more confident or less confident in the Lakers being able to put up a chance in this series after these two games?
Not a chance. But I do think they'll do the perfunctory. They'll win one game, right, and Denver will win it in five. I think it's probably that too.
Uh.
That was checks gut wrenching. If you're a Lakers fan last night like that, you were brutal. They played about as good a game as they can play. They did in Game one too. They played great. I mean, and they did four games last year where they got swept. They played incredibly. I don't think the Lakers lost that game line. I don't think so either. Denver won. You blew a twenty point lead, and somehow you didn't actually lose it out Shacks as differently, Shack says, yeah you did. Why did you double Jokic when you were up twenty. Why do you double Jokic and let the other guys get their groove? That was his big thing after the game. Okay, but like, certainly down the stretch you didn't. There was no gaff where you choked up the game like the Sixers did.
Yeah, it's just it's amazing what this starting unit does for Denver too. I mean you just pull up a box score too, and it's all it's four or five guys every night. Like it's not like you get you're getting the random dude off the bench having a big game. It's you know exactly what's coming and you can't stop it.
How good that was that finished last night with Denver in Lake. It's just trading shots so on, trading excellence down the streets. That was awesome. And uh, Bertie didn't even see the shot going.
That's always one of those like I love those sports stories where like he didn't see the shot and he hears the crowd.
He's like, well, I guess it was good. And Ad is still being excavated from the Denver pile celebration in the corner. He just got swallowed by it. It's incredible. We'll come back. Drew Dinsik on the NBA, Get any tennis thoughts from him in Madrid, and of course his NFL Draft thoughts on the heels of our megapod. Yesterday, It's a Numbers game at Bason These Sports Betting Network Numbers Game.
Network back on a.
Numbers game live from bar Canada, The d Downtown Las Vegas. Gill, Alexander Keilly, Bidler, We get tweets at beating the book. Uh this from yesterday the Numbers guys, Hi Gil, First time, long time? Is Bill eighty drinking atomic blue Mountain dew in the infamous commercial? I think Pepsi has long since retired the flavor. Is it coming back? My barber uses it to put the combes in question about the Bill eighty newsletter commercials LFC title records. I had tickets on Scotty this weekend, so I was constantly hearing a Southern gentleman's voice in the back of my head muttering, engage baby have in scenario. Thanks Gil, Glad it came home. Good for you. Let's see Nate Goggins talking about how that poll had Paul Pierce as the fifth greatest player of all time. That I've.
Everything that happened yesterday. I might still be my favorite thing, he said.
Don't forget Paul Pierce was able to come back from that horrific injury in the eight finals where he was taking off the court in the wheelchair. It was more of a what do you call those things in old Roman times? It wasn't really a willed It was a will No, it was almost were you carry people? There you go, chariot. Thank you so much?
All right?
And then just from here this morning, let me graduate a couple here. This is from Kevin Ryan Guild. The emotional ups and downs I experienced last night with a two team moneyline parlay on the Knicks and Nuggets may never be experienced again, well at least not until my next bad beat. And trust the glove. Thank you for staying up for the game. Greg Recap too old to pull that off anymore myself. Drew Dinsik is kind enough to join us for a second segment, as he always is here on Tuesdays on the Numbers Game at Whale, Underscore Capper and again Deep Dive Podcast and Bet the Edge courtesy of Progressive The Progressive guest line Tennis Real Quick Madrid. It's a one thousand tournament women started this morning. Men tomorrow, did you make any futures plays?
I got a little bit of Sabolenka on the women's side because she was five to one compared to Rebakna and you I couldn't square that with the altitude and the kind of importance of serv If Sabalanca.
Does anything on clay, it's here.
It's pretty low, low, low stakes for me, though, I got well, I got so much going on in the NBA right now.
And you know we'll ultimately have a lot locked up in the draft.
So yeah, I'm dancing pretty uh dancing pret lately in tennis at the moment, it is.
It is an amazing time where like multiple sports right Tennis, Baseball, Draft, I got things going on everything like I can. Basketball is almost the one where I don't have anything. Let's talk basketball since you do yesterday you you also said it best doubleheader you can ever remember in TNT playoff.
History for for my money, yes, uh, and you know, like of course, as we go deeper into the playoffs and the stakes get higher, like you know, people think those games matter more, but I will forever be around one, you know kind of that's my my my favorite time with the back to you know, two games going on at the same time and back to back like that. And I guess we should say we don't really know that the Knicks one because I don't know if you heard, but Philadelphia did file a grievance.
That's right, Stay tuned everybody the NBA.
They may look at the tape and decide that actually Philadelphia and we still we'll hold we'll hold judgment there. But no, in seriousness, the fact that kind of the main story coming out of both of the losers was complaining about the reps, I thought was hilarious because if you've been watching to this point in the playoffs, you will have noticed a very specific trend, and that is many fewer points than actually the market was expecting.
And that is in two parts.
One is the possessions go down. That happens every year. That shouldn't have surprised anyone. But the other is that, yeah, the fowlser fowls are being called less aggressively. And if you haven't been watching the NBA since the All Star break, then you maybe you didn't know that this was happening. But it does feel like whatever kind of emphasis you know, the league you know, kind of gave to the referees post All Star Break. Would they doubled down on it for the playoffs? And guess what Sure did. That's awesome. No one wanted to see those two games last night decided by free throws on cheap stuff like it. Honestly, the fact that you know that both of those games were decided by you know, eleap play making, rebounding shot making, like hallelujah, like you know, and and I you know, we kind of going to the like the spectacle and the magical, you know, nature of those two comebacks, particularly the next one, Like you know, when Kyle Lowry goes to the free throw lineup for, I like, through my I have decent stakes on Knicks to win this one. I thought the opening price was absurd with Phillya's favorites, I'm you know, heavily into the next year. And you know, he goes to the free throw line up for and I threw my phone. I'm like, man, this is like ninety eight percent over like like I don't even know. We were asking Quence could possibly get back into this game.
We were asking loud, what was the Sixers win probability?
At that moment had to be ninety eight and a half and something in that ballpark.
It was.
It was a big number. And as yes, I'm I'm I'm just kind of resigned too well because I thought Game two is going to be the guinea right, like, you know, well one one day turnaround for you know, an ill tyrese MAXI and and I hobbled Joel embiid like that that ship that was supposed to be the given for the Knicks, and uh, you know, and they dounked it with an eight point lead in the fourth quarter, and it was like, you know, so yeah, I was, I was, I was, I was desponded with the loss. And then yeah, the final sequence with the threes, uh you know, the I guess you know, Nick Nurse probably has a modicum of affair beef that they didn't get the time out called. But it wasn't clean. I didn't think it was like a clean, surefire thing at all. Like it was a little you know, because you know, if you're a referee, you have to see possession and then see the time out. And it was so bang bang, like you know, I'm not like, I don't think this was by any you know, stretch the imagination the most egregious call, so uh, you know it was it was a bad break for them, and I think ultimately, if you know, if you're if there's certainly things they could have done to you know, kind of put themselves in a better position. But what a comeback from the Knicks, And my goodness, gracious, I don't remember another team playing that hard and you know, kind of executing at that level in in you know, you know, super high leverage situations. And then the Lakers Nuggets was just that kind of final sequence, the final really, the entire fourth quarter told you everything you already kind of knew about the matchup between these two teams, which is the Lakers have, you know, kind of a relatively thin lineup of players who can make a difference in a series against the world champions, and Anthony Davis completely running out of gas considering how much he put into the offensive side of the ball in the first half was somewhat predictable. Lebron did come to the rescue to a degree to kind of keep the Lakers Noses ahead, but got no support really from any of the supporting cast. And then you know, the Nuggets kind of key advantage in this entire in this entire series is going to be their crunch time offense, where you know, the Lakers defense has you know, structural issues defending you know, a playmaker life Jamal Murray, and so the fact that he specifically was the difference in getting that win, you know, late in that game was it felt it all felt correct, it all felt perfect, and ultimately, you know, I think the Lakers are probably going to be you know what in the They're they're going to be right around to pick them for maybe small dogs in game yet one point game three in La, So yeah, I mean I could see them close and pick like there's going to be a little bit of momentum on the Lakers considering how you know, well they played over the balance of the game. But yeah, I just I don't see how this team is getting a win against this Nuggets team, particularly if it comes down to crunch time, because the Lakers defense is just structurally not equipped to handle and you know, like the supporting cast for a team like the Lakers typically plays better at home than they do on the road, which is why there's a little bit of a zig zag effect there. Certainly, whatever adjustments Starvenham has in his back pocket that he didn't use last night, he's going.
To have to use for Game three.
But I'm I'm not necessarily expecting this series to go past game five, if it even gets there. And it's crazy because the margin between the teams is narrow as we've now seen through two games.
Yeah, that's what I said earlier. Five games, five game series. What else could the Lakers have done? By the way, A couple of notes, just to wrap that up. Kyle Lowry career eighty one point five percent free throw shooter when he made the one to two, and Anthony Davi is, to your point, zero points one shot zero points in the fourth quarter last night. Games three of both of those series, including the Cleveland Orlando Game three is all on Thursday. Tonight we have a triple header. Tomorrow's a doubleheader. Kelly and I were talking about this earlier that one of the games tomorrow and the doubleheader is Boston Miami. So effectively, the NBA is sort of saying, let's take a night off with just one games by day. Yeah, well, let me ask you about let me ask you about the three today. T Wolves up one are three point favorites against the Suns, Bucks up one are one point favorites against the Pacers, and the Clippers up one are one and a half point dogs against the MAVs. Do you have a play in any of them?
Yeah?
So my fair on Minnesota Phoenix is three, so I don't have a side in that one all the.
At three, I was.
I got a little bit of a stake at two and a half, but it was nothing to write home about.
The total to me looks too low.
I think kind of Phoenix's key adjustment is going to have to be an upticking pace. The way that their defense was exposed, I think is problematic for them if they can't get their offense going. There in deep trouble in this game and in this series. And I think ultimately Minnesota wins, but I also don't see a game that's going to be contested in the two twelve was my fair on this one is closer to two twenties. So I got some over in Phoenix Minnesota. The Indie Milwaukee game is fascinating because, like the open the series, price in the game one price were just like flat out wrong and that's rare, but it was wrong for a reason. Like the you know, there was very quiet speculation about Dame Lollard's you know, kind of just general ability to you know, to show up and be fit. He was missing practice last week. There was rumors that it was a more serious injury than you know, that they were letting on. And if you watched any of game one, no, he was fine, and he was actually quite good. And in fact, the real questions and issues were about Tyrese Haliburton and whether or not.
He's going to show up for this series.
And honestly, he may not show up until game three, because it certainly didn't He did not seem ready and it wasn't even like, you know, he was getting good looks and they just weren't falling like he was unengaged. And I think that's a problem. So I think Bucks probably win this one. I think the under is probably good because the pace is so much slower than it was projected, so that one to me looks like Bucks and Under and then Dallas.
I have Dallas series price. I'm riding it out.
I feel not great about it considering that supporting cast, but fingers crossed they won't Drew.
Always a pleasure, Thank you, sir, nice to look. Well, come back, Eric Gager on the NFL Draft.
Next the Numbers told the story they always do.
One of those idiots will believe in analytics.
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander gone Bee's in.
Number two of a Numbers game of Visa Dsports Betting Network, Visa dot Com Game Plus. iHeartRadio YouTube TV. We appreciate it for you allowing us to be part of your mornings each and every Monday through Friday. Here on a Numbers game. It's Gil Alexander, It's Kelly Bidlin. Also have the best listeners in the game. Via tweet, we get tweets at Beating the Book, teasers and parlays. Thank you gents for an awesome pod talking about the Beating the Book. NFL Draft podcast the Top five exacta of Caleb Daniels Harrison Neighbors May five hundred to one. If you want absolute chaos as discussed. Thank you for all your great work. And let's catch some tickets by the way, just to let you know what he's talking about on the podcast, I sort of goaded both Drew and Drew and Luke into what's what's the nutty scenario that blows this whole thing up. And it was the Lake, the Lakers, the Patriots, La Patriots staying at three. If the Lakers stayed at three, that'd be a real story. Patriots staying at three and drafting Marvin Harrison and if that happened, and what is the domino effect of that? And Drew's again, if you missed it from when Drew was on his knee jerk to that was if they go Harrison three, the Cardinals feeding for a wide receiver are going to take neighbors four, which I know you would hate. That option did not exist at bet MGM in Nevada. There was no exacta that had Harrison three neighbors four. So the closest you could get here was after Harrison three. So Williams Jaden, Harrison three was a sort of a scenario where it went four would end up being Drake May followed by either neighbors or alt kind of thing. But they didn't allow you to take neighbors at four after Harrison, so that didn't even exist. James Fraction, Hey, Gil, I'm invested with you in the Cleveland most Wins in March and April investment, and I'm a Yankees fan. I've never become I've never been so excited about my Yanks getting beat by the A's in April in my life. Go Gills, Guardians, thank you. We will talk to Paul spor about that bet coming up a little later on good news, bad news. Good news, Guardians control their own destiny for the first time. Bad news. There's still seven more games, and there's a little weather looming too, which is bothering me. Stefan Reid, I don't have a dog in the hunt, but I find myself rooting for your Indians Guardians wager, he says, got home today and grabbed Oakland plus one ninety in game. Just have action and hopefully win and have it help you as well. So nice of people to like, even if they're not invested in the bet. Jumping on and three Jack h three one three one as always, great job with the NFL Draft podcast. Shout out to Drew and Luke with all the great insights and Stephen Vegas agrees best to basketball games ever last night back to back doubleheader.
Those are a hell of a duo on the pod yesterday, Oh yeah, sure they're awesome.
And cleave ta Thursday to talk NFL Draft with us as well. Ladies and gentlemen. The Premier League is playing games midweek, so we must bring in our buddy Paul Carr from the Expected Value podcast and of course True Media Networks. He comes to us courtesy the Progressive guest Line at Paul Carr c ar R on Twitter. Happen, PAULI, Oh we don't hear Paul, Oh, we don't hear your audio. I'm mute, no nothing.
So you're saying I need to turn my mic.
There you go. That works, That is what I was saying.
Yes, all right, I'm just starting my draft prep this week, you know, just been out of the loop trying to figure out. I don't know what's going on. Looks like the Dolphins are opening in no alignment falls to twenty one something like that. So but it's always fine. I just am not as diled as I have been.
Yeah. Well, I mean you've been killing in soccer though, right like this has been a it's been great this year.
Yeah, we're up about ten units for the year in twenty twenty four, so hit too out of three last week on the Premier League.
Can we talk about before we get into your picks though? Because obviously we've had a couple of results here since right at the top. Yeah, a couple not convincing, but wins nonetheless, and FA Cup involved or the third team was idle explained to us.
Yeah, so City didn't play in the Premier League this past weekend because that had an FA Cup semi final that they want against Chelsea. But Arsenal beat Wolves and Liverpool be Fulham, so they held serve. But we're not convincing in any stretch. Liverpool won three to one, but they just kind of converted all three of their half chances and kind of walked in from there. So nothing was very appealing in that sense. Like if you have Arsenal, I have an Arsenal future. If you have that, I don't feel a whole lot better about it. Just based on that win. Even though the odds got shorter for him, Arsenal is like plus three eighty three ninety. They're down a plus three thirty or so. That's just the nature of you know, there's half a dozen games or fewer left and any points you pick up make a big difference. So City is still a minus two hundred favorite, and I think deservedly so. But you know, the table looks a little closer because City has a game in hand right now.
Yeah, DraftKings Man City minus two hundred, Arsenal plus three thirty and Liverpool plus four fifty. But as you say, okay, so five games left for Arsenal and Liverpool they're at seventy four points. Six games left for Man City they're at seventy three points, one point behind. So it's that game in hand that ultimately makes them the favorite. Have we ever had a three team race this close this late?
Not recently?
There was one, and I forget the year in the nineties, kind of before the Premier League, before I was watching it, before most people in America were able.
To watch it.
So I know there was one, you know, in our lifetimes, but not in kind of our general memory as American soccer fans.
Right, So what you're trying to say, what you're suggesting, your Paul, is that as Americans, we didn't even know the Premier League existed in nineteen ninety.
I mean it was TV Like, I literally couldn't watch Premier League games because they were on you know, whatever Fox Soccer World channel that I couldn't get. I couldn't watch them until like oh six or something like that, just based on like the TV services available and things like that. So yeah, they really blew up in the last you know, fifteen or so years as far as the premier leagu's popularity in the US goes.
All right, let's get to it today. Arsenal one of the teams we just mentioned tied for the lead. Right now, Arsenal plays Chelsea. What is your play on this, sir.
Yeah, so I'm kind of on at the spot where I'm fading Arsenal just because well, hey, their numbers are trending down in five to the last six games one point six expectacles or fewer, and compare that to the first twenty seven games when they top that mark in seventy percent of the game. So their attack is just the numbers are not as good. They don't pass the eye test as much. But Kayasaka, they're star winger on the right side, just doesn't look He just looks worn down. You know, it's the end of the season, it's a long season, et cetera. So they just don't look as good and their numbers aren't as good. So I'm playing the draw in this one at plus four hundred. It kind of goes against Usually, I like, take the better team on the road, you know, the home crowd balances out the advantage, et cetera. But I just think Arsenal is kind of cooked. I mean, don't tell your your valet guy, don't tell him. But that's a good price. Arsenal has not been putting up the numbers offensively. Just mean they're not gonna blow Chelsea out. Like Chelsea's gonna hang around this one. They're the fourth or fifth best team probably in the league this season, even though the I needs don't necessarily reflect that. So yeah, you give me a huge number on a draw like that. I will take plus four hundred in Arsenal Chelsea for the draw.
Wow, plus four four to one Arsenal Chelsea draw today. He is my guy downstairs is going to be a mess when I get home, Mike Ca. Sorry all right, Arsenal Chelsea four to one draw today tomorrow. Speaking of which, Liverpool is also an action they're taking on Everton. What you got here?
So this is one of the great rivalries in English Soccer's I've probably said this before, but it boggles my mind. These two stadiums are less than a mile apart, like there're across it's a park or cemetery or something less than a mile. You can walk there like fifteen minutes. It's wild.
That's amazing.
It is.
We as Americans don't have a who myself don't have a great sense of how tight England is and how many soccer stadiums there are. I mean it's like it's like high school football stadiums in Texas or something like that. There's so many stadiums and teams and all that.
In my head, I mean, rifling through how many to London alone, right, Paul?
I mean there's oh yeah, just in the Premier League there's six or seven most years, you know, it obviously varies, and there's probably you know, multiples of that when you go on down just through the top four leagues.
I'm going through, like which in American professional sports, which are the two closest like competing teams.
I guess Wrigley and Kamiski or whatever it's called.
Now are and Komiski closer than the Bronx and Queens. But it's it's one of those, right, got to be one of those. Kelly's got the check it out for you.
Figure that out.
I'm going to take the under in Everton Liverpool at two under two and a half at plus one fifty five. Yeah, I know I've been taking overs a lot and but this is kind of a rivalry specific thing. Last four matches between these teams have had two or fewer goals since Yrkan Klopp came to Liverpool. Five of the seven at Goodison Park, where Everton plays one or fewer goals. Everton can't score their dead last and total goals per game offense and defense combined. Both just take a lot of shots from outside the box. And like I said, Liverpool didn't look great against Fulham, so I think they may be winding down a little bit. This is just kind of a classic rock fight of a rivalry. So under two and a half plus one fifty five.
By the way, it's probably if you could, if you were allowed to cross the bay, it's probably oh the Giants and the A's, Yeah, that might be, but instead you have to go to Boss. You got to go over the Bay bridge though, so maybe not right, Okay, So Arsenal Chelsea draw today, Arsenal tied with Liverpool. You got them under two and a half goals against Everton less than a mile away. Those two under two and a half goals tomorrow at plus one fifty five shop around for the best price. You have another one tomorrow as well.
This is Manchester United is hosting Sheffield United. Sheffield's in dead last place. They're not officially relegated, but they will be like their numbers off the board most places as far as that goes. But I like Sheffield United getting a goal and a half at minus one oh five. Man United has been smoking mirrors all season. They advanced to the FA Cup Final over the weekend, even though they really got out played by Coventry, but man United got buy on penalty kicks despite blowing a three goal lead, so Manchester United an expected goal difference. They are sixteenth in the Premier League this season. Now that overstates things a little bit, but it goes to the fact that they're just not very good on the whole, been very fortunate in a lot of different ways, and at home they have played fifteen home games in the league only twice. If they won by multiple goals and they be for USD by one goal be lootened by one goals, those are a couple Similarly relegation threatened teams to where Sheffield United is. So Sheffield United, I'll lay the goal and a half at minus one oh five, even on.
The road, getting the goal of a half, right, not laying the goal.
Right, yes, yes, thank you, yes, getting the goal a half.
And in Sheffield United they're relegated. No, I mean there's no there's barely any way they can get out of not being relegated, So like, do you worry about motivation there at all?
Not really?
Okay, you know they're still fighting, fighting, the good fight even Oh yeah, they they need about one hundred things to go right to Yeah, actually not get relegated, but yeah, not yet because it's not official. So you know they're still at least putting up a good show.
Okay. Arsenal Chelsea draw today four to one, tomorrow Everton Liverpool under two and a half goals and Sheffield getting the goal and a half at man You The answer, Kelly.
Is, I've got several nine seventy meters from the two soccer stadiums. Eleven miles is the crow flies from the Giants to the A's, seven miles from Yankees to nets.
And eight point two miles from White socks to comes prox and queens. Baby, there we goes. Thank you, Paul, appreciate it.
Good work, Kelly.
They've posted Rookie of the Year odds of the NFL. We'll look at those next numbers game. On VSA, the Sports Betting Network for a livinged time, we're offering two weeks of our exclusive betting splits for free. Just sign up at VSA dot com slash splits, split bet the VSON betting splits pages updated with DraftKings odds every five minutes. See because he changes in all the action. Find out where the public is betting based on the number of tickets and where the money does not match the public opinion. You could check out not just today's action, but future events as well. Take advantage of this limited time offer. Visit VSON dot com slash splits now to claim your free two week access to Beson's betting splits and they'll strike out on potential winnings. Visit vson dot com slash splits start making smarter bets today. It's Gil Alexander, It's Kelly Biddlin. It's a numbers game. By the way, For those listening in Spanish and here at the D Whatever happened to the the what was it? The s A P button on your remote? Oh that's right, hit the SAP button on your own. You'll listen to the show in Spanish. Could you imagine if they if we were just something we had some Spanish, and all of a sudden, they'd be like, got the NS this? I worked for a whole week, Gil, I don't, I don't, I don't know. I was.
I was borrowed for a week by the ESPN Deporte's office in Miami.
Were you really it was a tough week to get through. You understood nothing.
I mean like I understood some. I had to do some editing work, though, and I'm like, I don't know if this is a clean edit.
Right here or not. I once had an audition at MTV Latino in Miami, also did not go well, So we have that in common. Let's just say it was way more confident in myself than I should have. Bet. I don't know if you you feel the same about yourself, but it was very Oh at that age, come on, I just thought the world was coming to mem sure, Like I lived in Venezuela for a year. No, probably bo Jason Stark asking you shall receive. Uh, it's a tie, he says. The cups in white Sox are ten miles apart as the Yankees. Oh I already read that one, Jamie Ratio. I don't know why you like this betting stuff, Gilly, but let's he goes l blank g Guardians. Gilly's mom voice, Oh, she would say, who are the Guardians? Why do you like them? All of a sudden, these bets Today's Guardians Red Sox game may have some weather issues as well today. Don't say that. Hold on, See this is the other thing about this bet. I have been so locked into weather reports for fear of losing a game. How about how about if we lose it that way? Yeah, Cleveland weather today is oh no, He's right. The precipitation begins tonight. Now, oh no, So we have about a fifty chance of rain tonight that that should hit during the game, and then tomorrow it is a tomorrow again chance of rain. So we could be looking at a double header situation, or losing a game or Whatever's the thing. It's not good enough to be good, you have to avoid the weather. And part of the handicap of this was Cleveland didn't have a home game till April eighth. That was my way of sort of minimizing weather impact. We got clipped in Minnesota, and now here we are, maybe we're gonna get clipped at the end of the Cleveland home stand. Ah, Ladies and gentlemen. Paul Sporer joyses at sport S p O R e R. On Twitter. He works at Fangrafts the Baseball Bible for nerds like me and nerds across the land. Courtesy the Progressive Guest Line, sponsored by the Progressive Guest Line. No coincidence that, of course, the Guardians played Progressive Field. PAULI can you make the weather go away in Cleveland? Let's start there, please.
Boy, I wish I could. That sounds treacherous. That's the worst when you're dealing with an outside factor like that too. Writ you know, you got everything aligned with the talent and the players that you want, then you have to deal with the weather and so that part is pretty nerve wracking. Hopefully it stays away for you. And who are they playing right now? I can't remember.
Bustin red Sox Tanner how could get today against livel How against Lively? Almost a coin flip of a game.
I wonder how many more games they have too, Like, how aggressively are they going to try to get it in right now as opposed to pushing it. I think there's more off days now, which kind of yeah, makes them more inclined to maybe push it. So that's not cool. But yeah, your fingers crossed for you. I'm ha'ma hoping. Well.
The sad part is we had the off day yesterday, so we didn't. You know, it would have been great if the series was yesterday today and then Wednesday and you had the Thursday, but instead that off day was yesterday, So now Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. If you lose a game, you're gonna lose a game because they got a plane Atlanta on Friday and so. And the other trippy part about this bet if you Will is that, unlike winning a division or a series, or a pennant or a championship, the teams have no idea that there's a bet, or the league has no idea of bets taking place because there's no prize, right, there's no prize, So you're operating in this weird vacuum that they don't even know about. It's also a trippy element to it. What has been the trippiest since I'll use that word, the trippiest part about this baseball season thus far for you a little more than twenty games in, which is one eighth of the season, what has stood out to you as Wow, that is not something I necessarily saw coming.
I mean maybe the group of upstarts. You know, there was some popularity for a lot of them coming into the season, although not the Guardians. Actually they were kind of overshadowed by the Tigers and Royals, both teams playing pretty well. There you look at a team like the Brewers, I think both central leaders are a bit surprising. They were both kind of cast off, you know, people getting on the Pirates, Reds train as the upstarts in the central, with maybe the Cubs as the favorite throwing the Brewers off to the side, and then the Cardinals. You know, if you like them, you were kind of in. If you didn't like what they did with their pitching, you were kind of out. And then, like I said, same thing in the al where it was like, Twins are the favorite, Royals, Tigers are the upstarts, Guardians off to the side, White Sox, you know, doing whatever they're doing, and by themselves over there losing tons of games. So I think it's really that and.
Might just be the weather.
The ball seems a bit dead right now. You're not getting the normal. The early results are suggesting that the standard results that you would get from particular barrels and well struck balls is not matching up, which hints at a perhaps deader ball, which isn't cool. I don't know why we would want that. So we know the MLB is always messing with the ball, we just don't know to what degree. And that's that's the frustrating part.
And they could change it at any point, as we say, right exactly at all times. Right, So that makes you know, sweeping generalizations about such things perilous because you might be right and then the next week they're like, oh, new batch of balls kind of thing. By the way, exactly you hinted at the white sox or you touched on them, I should say three to nineteen. We've seen bad starts before, certainly, yes, And I don't want to be prisoner of the moment because we've seen these before, and teams manage to get to forty five fifty wins at the at the very least they will too in your.
Opinion, probably it's the safe bet, right, Like it's a bad team. It's definitely a bad team, there's no two ways around it. But didn't we have one of these last year?
We did what it was?
Yeah, but we had one and they got out of them. Maybe it was just Oakland. I can't remember if there was a one besides Oakland. But yeah, the safe bet is that, yes, things will get better. Three and nineteen is obviously horrendous. I don't think there're a one thirty six win percentage team that's that's a twenty two.
Win Yeah, it well, by the way, by the way, it was Oakland, and Oakland ended up with fifty six wins. Excuse me with fifty wins on the button, which is still terrible.
Right, But two and a half x what we're looking at right now, you know, just about two x or just over two x. I should say what we're looking at right now for Chicago. So it will get better. It won't be good, Chicago fans, I'm not going to delude you, but it'll get better.
Are you worried at all about the Dodgers who are thirteen and eleven and when I say worried, let's put that in relative terms, meaning worried enough that they won't be elite, that they won't get to say, ninety five wins. Let's let's put it like that.
Not really, No, Like you know, they kind of build their team to kind of battle the one sixty two and kind of morph and you know, EBB and flow. I feel like we've seen this recently too, maybe some slower starts by powerhouse teams and then they get to the level that we expect them to be at. No, I'm not particularly worried. Like the pitching depth coming in, we kind of knew like, Okay, this is not the roster the rotation that they're going to have in October probably, And of course Bobby Miller being hurt is not great, but you know, Kershaw is obviously expected back at some point. Miller himself is Bueler's working his way back. They can always add they still have an insanely deep system.
You know.
Signing Will Smith means that guys like Dalton Rushing, Diego Kartaya and Tyron Lerizano Loronzo excuse me, are prospects that are going to be availble. Those are all three catching prospects, big time guys. They can go out and get whoever they want. So bottom line, no, I'm not worried about the Dodgers, and I don't think that they're like primed for the picking. I think that they're going to work their way through the Bucks sixty two to make sure that they've got the seed that they want and then go from there.
Yeah, check adjusted season win totals for all of these. They're not currently up that I see at DraftKings, but I would just say, you know, twenty plus games in, it's about as to form to form of a baseball season as you can image. Because again, as I said earlier, Baltimore, the Yankees fifteen wins each right, Atlanta with fifteen wins, the Phillies with fifteen wins, Milwaukee with fourteen. So it's like the teams you thought would be there are there, right, So it's about what it should be. DFS, As we close out here, what do you got today?
You know, I'm probably looking at some of the top ends starters. You got Marcus Stroman facing the A's, which is always nice. Grayce Rondriguez is on the road, but that Angels team just avoid Trout. You're looking pretty good. We're talking about the White Sox Pabo Lopez against them, so I'm probably taking one of the aces. Throw Logan Web in there too. If I'm at DraftKings, I might double up and then try to play cheap in Colorado. Got San Diego and Colorado out there, so I'm playing it pretty chalking today with some aces and as much Colorado as I can get. Gotta watch out for that weather. You talk about your Cleveland weather, there's potentially some Saint Louis, some Chicago, so you want to be duck in the weather a little bit to Colorado itself. You also have to be careful there, so if you want to pivot off Colorado, you can find your hitters elsewhere, but go with the Aces.
In my opinion, talk me out of Logan Web cy Young at ten to one.
I'm not gonna.
I love Logan Web.
I think he's fantastic and can absolutely win.
To say yet, okay, here might add that, thank you, PAULI great talking to you.
Thanks guys, take care, but I.
Can't make the weather go away in Cleveland. Go away, rain at least stay till tomorrow like you were supposed to be my God. We'll finish as we started with the NBA. Kelly's thoughts next