A Numbers Game | February 8, 2023 | Hour 1

Published Feb 8, 2023, 4:14 PM

In hour one of A Numbers Game hosts Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon are joined by Drew Dinsick, Analyst for NBC Sports Edge, as they break down the Super Bowl LVII between the Chiefs and Eagles. Also in the show, the hosts give their thoughts on LeBron James breaking the scoring record last night.

The numbers. This is a numbers game with Gill Alexander Good Wednesday morning to It is a numbers game at Visa these sports betting Network, Visa dot Com, the Visa App Game plus I Heart Radio YouTube TV, all proudly brought you by bet MGM. It is Gill Alexander, it is Kelly Bidlin. Good morning, sir. Good We're doing uh, We're doing good. Rufus Peabody will join us on the show today among other guests. Co founder of Nabated Sports, but Rufus perhaps the most one of the most famous bettters of his generation. We'll be here and this was the week. This is the week that he had made his fame on Super Bowl props week. So he'll join us towards the end of the show, uh to discuss his Super Bowl prop experience from this week, how it's changed over the years, what it was like, what he's still betting, what he's still looking to bet, what he has been already h And a warning viewer warning, Rufus has grown a mustache and it is awful. I just want to point that before the show about warning everybody that Loan is just worth going radio. I'm glad you brought it up. People. When people surprise you with a mustache, you know, it always takes you a minute to it. He even texted me and said, I'm just warning you. Here's a picture of me. That's a good see, that's a nice heads up of him. You can't just roll into it. He can't rull into a TV show. I'm like, whoa stock startling? Will Hill, who I believe already has facial hair. He'll be here with us as well to talk super Bowl fifty seven everything he's betting, basketball, watse as well Drew Dinsick, Whale Kapper, analyst for NBC Sports at the Edge podcast and of course the Deep Dive podcast. He'll talk super Bowl fifty seven with us and basketball as well. See if he's bett in anything. Throughout we will also run a clip from Brett Musburger's upcoming interview exclusive interview with Billy Walters, the most famous sports better of all time, And specifically, the clip that we're going to run, Kelly has to do with Billy's relations ship with Phil Mickelson. Yeah, see what Billy had to say about that. It's a little sneak preview of that. His relationship with Phil Mickelson, Brent asked the question, and for those who don't know, by the way, I have to go into my I'll have to give some context about the whole Why did Phil Mickelson escape prosecution? It's a whole story. It's an amazing story. I had to I had to go back and read up on it a little bit more last night because you there, there was so much that happened right in that series in that short period of time. Really when you look back at it now that yeah, it's I had to catch up with way, like, Okay, what happened and that happened, and that happened, and it is. It's fascinating stuff that we'll get into it, and the full interview airs Thursday night, correct nine pm Eastern, six pm Pacific right here at vis um. Let us begin though with the King King James setting the all time record for the most points ever in the his the National Basketball Association, a thirty eight point performance needed thirty six last night to eclipse the thirty eight thousand seven points of Kareem Abdul Jabbar Lebron James now at the top thirty eight thousand three. He I mean, you know, Kelly in retrospect, because we were speculating, which is the game that he's going to break the record? You could bet on this yesterday. I don't know if you had this feeling too. As the game was approaching, it dawned on me. I'm like, oh, we had this wrong the whole time. Of course it was going to be this game because everybody was invited. It was. It was almost like they're like, oh, no, we're making sure he breaks it tonight. And he did. By the end of the third quarter, Lebron showing up looking dressed to the nines, looking flashy to his kids, are there? His wife is there? I mean, to be fair, you and I did look at some of the props after the show. We just I just didn't think there was any value plus points. We did say yesterday, if you're gonna bet anything better the plus money on tonight. Uh. Lebron James first now in all time points. Keep in mind he's also fourth all time and steel and assist rather fourth and assist ninth, and steel's ninth all time and threes four time NBA champion. Of course, he has been to the finals Kelly ten times in his twenty year career. Also, I mean, what can you say? And and never a hint of scandal throughout it all. Yes, there was the decision, which was the uh you know, one could argue the only blemish on his twenty years the NBA other than that the way it was done, not the outcome of it. Other than that, you couldn't ask for a more regal, you know guy to do this twenty years in the NBA, averaging you know, twenty seven plus points a game. Throughout he has averaged twenty five points a game in every season, twenty five plus points a game in every season except for his rookie year. We average twenty plus seven point to three points a game is his career average. He breaks the all time scoring record on two seven three stat muse clever, who was the guy yesterday of the comedian who was like, what happens if right now Kareem abdul Jabbar just rips off his shirt and there's an Oklahoma City thunder jersey underneath it, and he breaks. He takes the record back. That was my favorite, and they need a big man. Everybody had jokes last night. Here's the NBA meme. So Donnas Haslam thirty one, twenty six points away from breaking Lebron's all time scoring record. But we're gonna let Colin Coward and those types do the whole. Hey, Lebron versus Jordan, that's gonna everybody's gonna say that again. That's gonna be real, you know, revived today. I'll always be a Jordan guy because that's who I grew up on it. And to me, the biggest difference is that game last night. Michael Jordan would have never lost that game last night. That's the first. Okay, so he wins at one third a ceremony with tense left in a quarter. You were surprised by that, But that's I mean, that's sports Like Barry Buds breaks the home run record. They do that too. No, I know, but it's different. I I was thinking about that, but it's it's it's different to me in a game that has a clock, It's different than me. Why couldn't you wait till the end of the third quarter? Right? Whit? Why couldn't you let it lasted in ten minutes long? I just I don't. I had a lot of questions about that. It was the well was okay, this was clearly the plan all along. What if there was a minute left in the fourth quarter and it was a two point game. We still get to do the same thing. I don't know. I'll quickly just say, yo, this is He's one of those guys that, look, we've been working in media for the vast bulk of his career, you know, you for the entirety of his career, us doing different sports, sports talk shows and stuff like that, and it's I don't think, I don't I can think. I think I can put myself in the camp with a lot of people out there of we've spent a lot out of time talking about this guy and never given him his due credit. And his due credit is he is one of the greatest of all time. No matter how you want to chop that up, it is. It is. What you're saying is right. It's almost as if, no matter how much credit he's been given, it's not enough, not enough, it's not enough, it's not enough. We've sat here for years picking apart and comparing him to Jordan's and stuff like that, when they're different players, different eras, different entirely. And I said it last week. I said the amazing thing to me about Lebron is Kareem Abdul Jabbar score first, Karl Malone score first, all these guys at the top of that scoring list, you know, scores first, even MJ. You're like, you know, he does a lot of things. He was great on defense. Still the score first, Lebron James, I guess he was the score first, but I don't like to think of him that. I don't think he was, because I don't think he was. Yeah, he he is about to be and he's thirty eight years old, shows no signs of slowing down. He's again at thirty eight thousand, three hundred ninety if he gets the forty thousand, which all indications are that he will, right, he will have a career. And we're talking a career when we're talking about total points, rebounds, and assist a career forty point triple double. It's incredible in the thousands and so that's just off the charts beyond. And he lived up to all the hype. Kelly All that's I mean, that's right there, right, that's where how can you He's one of the most hyped athletes ever and he lived up to it. All. Congratulations to everybody who hit that bet for that. He you know, would break it against the thunder. Um in retrospect, it was just so obvious that he would break it with with everybody there. So there was a couple obvious things like by the time I kind of really caught onto it last night, Gill, it was second quarter. Should have been pounding live overs. Nobody was playing defense in that game. By the thunder don't really have a rim protected right now. The way Lebron wasn't playing defense was the biggest defense I've ever seen of his entire career. Anybody drove to the basket he had. There was a few times I saw it with a chance to challenge it was I'm just gonna stop here. You take your layup. That's okay. Um. The other thing that happened yesterday before Lebron broke the record in sports, and has to do with sports betting, of course, is you catch the the Aaron Rodgers, I'm going on a four day darker retreat. So listen, I understand mental health is a is a big thing these days, and so I don't be grudge Air Rodgers wanted to go on a four day dark retreat. If you wanted to go kill I'd be like, sure, go have it have at it. It's just the fact that it's Aaron Rodgers and I'm so sick of this dude and everybody covering every move Last year. Remember when Ryan Clark went on ESPN and goes, I'm not doing this with you all this year, and I said, I'm with you. Forget it. Just here's the thing about Aaron Rodgers next teams And by the way, this four day dark retreat, which is Aaron Rodgers by himself, are no communication in a dark hut with apparently a little slot that food, contemplating his future. He's allowed to walk out, by the way, he said that I could walk out. Yeah, he's a free man. Is it like like a like an escape rooms like a p but it's it's not a it's not a bondage situation. He's okay to go, but he's gonna try to make it for and and he is contemplating his future. Will he play? Won't he play? The interesting thing about these odds on his next team courtesy if DraftKings is it doesn't matter what Eric Rodgers says about his next team because he doesn't control that the Raiders are minus three ninety. Does somebody know something you'll I don't know, except for I'm guessing this is just stuff based off of what he said while he was at pebblic He doesn't it doesn't matter what, it doesn't matter. He's it won't be San Fran. Well, it won't be if you call San Francisco san Fran that's the first thing. But even that, even that, right, you're like, they shouldn't be what are they shouldn't be? No team should be this big of a favorite, because it's not up to him unless you're the Green Bay Packers, unless unless it's the Packers. The correct Packers are three to our three to one. The Jets are somehow now back down to six to one, which is odd because that was the concern that was the favorite here at one point, or the short shot anyway. Um so the Jets are six to one, and then everybody else's double digits and beyond and every one of those other teams seems unlikely, but who knows, Yeah, who knows. I mean, three to one is approaching the point where you might bet the package. I might actually throw a few bucks on. It's a horrible bit. I mean, three to one form one of the greatest quarterbacks in the league with a massive I mean it's gonna be a massive deal to pull off actually trading him three to one for him just the state pood. How long would you last if you want four If you were like I'm going four days, darkness, no communication, how long would you last? An hour and twenty two minutes. I feel like I'm hungry, I'm gonna go under and the shrooms are written me down, Get me out of here. Shrooms are involved. Wow. Jude Dinsick. On the other side, Numbers gave visa these sports betting network, the Numbers Sports Betting Network. It's time to download Nevada's premier sports betting app, bet MGM Sports ben MGM with all your favorite wagering options along within game betting, boosted odd specials, and much more. Download the bet mgm app today and stoff by any MGM casino on the strip with your state issue. I need open an account. The Star places sports bets from anywhere in Nevada. Whatever your sport, whatever your betting style, You're gonna love bet MGM state of the art technology and fan friendly specials every day of the week. Visit bet mgm for urns of conditions must be twenty one or older and physically located in Nevada, Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one eight five to two seven hundred skill Alexander Kelly Bilin is here as well. The other thing that happened yesterday, which it was just oh so amusing basketball, Kanye said some stuff yesterday. Oh man. Kyrie Irving, after his first practice with the Dallas Mavericks, he said he, uh he felt quote really wanted by his new team, a stark contrast to feeling quote very disrespected unquoted times during his turbulent three and a half season tenure with the Brooklyn Nets. I just know I want to be places where I'm celebrated and not just tolerated, to just kind of dealt with in a way that doesn't make me feel respected. Oh my, hey, Carrie, if you're if you, if you take it like that when they pay sixty cents on the dollar for you, sure that if that's you being wanted, go ahead, most most delusional dude ever. We decided he needed to spend some time with with Aaron Rodgers, right, we we thought, as Kyrie's professional advisors, we think he needs to spend more time with Aaron Rodgers self reflect the other thing about the Nets. In the aftermath of the trade, k d Kevin Durant engaged in conversations with owner Joe Sigh and general managers Shawn Marks on the direction of the franchise. Hey, what direction are you going in? We're going north? Those those their ability to be a championship contender, sources telling ESPN on Tuesday. So far, the Nets have insisted to Durant and inquiring teams that the organization has no intention of moving in prior to Thursday afternoons trade deadline tomorrow at three pm Eastern twelve noon Pacific. Yeah, it would seem tough to get a deal done between now and then, but I'm not rolling it completely out yet. So far. A whimper, nothing much. Drew Densic joints everybody he loves an NBA trade deadline. I know that much. O. Yes, oh yes. He is the co host of the Deep Dive podcast with Andy Molitor and NBC Sports Bet the Edge at Wale Underscore Capper. How you doing, Drew, Oh? Not too nicey bad? I like your your points on Kyrie Irving trade. I had high hopes that when you know when you when the news trickled across that there was a trade request. Of course, people go right to the ESPN trade machine and they're cooking up some fun stuff. Uh. And there were like ten of them out there that I was like, well, that's that's a win win. That's a win win, that's a win win. This was a lose loose, and it is a bigger lose for us the fans, because now Brooklyn is not realistically going to make any noise in the Eastern Conference, which is a shame. Uh. And Dallas is still an absolute mess. I don't know what I'm gonna I don't know what we're gonna take away from the last couple of months of this team in the regular season. I don't know how these players are gonna fit together. I get I get it. Having a second banana who could take a little bit of the scoring load off of Lucas should in theory, um, you know, keep him a little bit fresher for you know, a playoff run. But um, the team is so thin now and really just lacks any kind of defensive anything. I don't know that there could be out of the first round. I don't know if they're gonna be in the final eight realistically, like the Western Conference, even as weak as it is, this is not an obvious team that is going to be in the uh in the playoffs. But uh yeah, it's this was a mess. And I think you know, to your point about Durant um fingers very much fingers crossed that the Nets deal him um to a Western Conference quasi contender, because that would make the Western Conference playoffs a lot more fun. As it stands now, with him on this roster, they look like, you know, one and done in the playoffs and uh and that's a shame. I would rather see the West be more competitive. Kevin Durant would make that happen. And clearly the Nets don't seem to have a plan that looks like they're going to compete for a title anytime soon, So might as well move on and get what you can get for him. All the cut Re trade did was take bets, potential bets off the table. Yeah, give me, give me a Pelican's Kevin Durant trade drew me rant and silent, come on, would be nice. Let me just ask you what I asked a couple of people earlier this week, which is Western Conference finals right now? Who are the two teams Grizzlies and Nuggets. Probably, I mean, that's the very boring answer. I feel more confident that the Grizzlies are gonna make her run this year than the Nuggets. The Nuggets look like paper tigers to me in a lot of ways. And yeah, you know, it's clearly your m v P. He's clearly doing things we've never seen before. And you know at that, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, and um, you know is the rightful m v P favorite. But that's not a playoff caliber squad in terms of depth, and and you lose a little bit of the juice that you get from having your home court games at altitude in the playoffs. And so that's gonna hurt the Nuggets to a degree. Um, Grizzlies, I would say, still, once they're at full health in the playoffs are going to be a very tough out. I love that they kind of made it to the second round last year, so they got there, you know, got a little bit of the taste of what it feels like to win and lose a playoff series against the elite competition. Um, and uh, you know, getting to the Western Conference finals is the next logical step for that young core. Um. And I guess, I mean, you can't rule out the Clippers, even though I'm very lukewarm and them. You can't remember out the Warriors, even though they're looking like they're driving directly for a play in game, which is very dangerous. Uh. And you know, I think, Um, if there was a team on buying low on at the moment, it's the Sun's just because I think the Suns can win the Pacific, they can get a top four seed, they can have a first round home playoffs series. Um. But you know, again, the idea that that team is going to have juice to you know, make it pass where they failed last year is as a little bit uninspiring. So um, I mean, you get those Western Conference odds that they aren't fat, Like the Nuggets are plus three fifty, the Clippers are four to one, the Grizzlies are five to one, the Warriors are plus six fifty, and the MAVs and Sons seven one, seven one, and eight to one respectively. It's all incredamentally different from me. Yeah, it's all flat Earth exactly. So Yeah, so by definition, one of those teams is super value. It with name, but which is yeah, I would I would still leave Grizzlies like the coach, like the depth, resilient injury, and you know, presumably with Steven Adams and J J J back for a playoff run. That's a that is a really nice defensive core. Um. So, yeah, Grizzlies are passed for me in the West. Right now? What do you like today today in the NBA? I have at edges on Utah at minus five, even though they've been they've been performing poorly lately. Minnesota gave you just an absolute laughable at level of effort last night altitude. Now they go with the back to back Denver to Utah, not you know, just the kiss of death from the league. Um. And so I played Utah full game minus five. I like Houston first half. Houston and San Antonio right now are doing the absolute most aggressive rug polling I've ever seen in the second half of games. So if you have an edge on Houston or San Antonio, you can really only touch that first half. Um. So I'm gonna play Houston first half and then um the Miami Heat. I'm showing a decent edge over the Indiana Pacers here. Um, I think that game is going you know, I think that game is going to go up realistically, Indiana and a little bit of a tough spot right now in terms of motivation. What are they playing for? What are they doing at the trade deadline here? So I could see some surprise guys sitting there, and I wouldn't wouldn't be wouldn't wouldn't be surprised if six and a half are gone. Come tip tip off by edge, you mean you have bet, you have bets on them, actual wagers on them? Yeah, yeah, yeah, so Miami. Although I should note after very very hot start to fed Bruary, this week has been bad and I blame the trade deadline. Uh, there's definitely a lot of there. There's a little bit of, hey, we we desperately need the All Star break to get here. All of these teams feel like they need breaks badly, um, and they're kind of taking it this week with the Super Bowl sucking up all the attention and Lebron's chase for the you know, the points title checking up all the attention. Uh, it's felt I felt like the effort we've gotten from some of these teams who are, um, you know, a little bit of a cruise control vibe, which is annoying me this week. It's a good call, and it's it's something that we've brought up on this show many many times. And this applies to Baseball as well. Pre All Star Game, I used to say, post All Star Game in baseball, like those last two weeks in July used to always jack up everything I was doing, and it was it was something that you couldn't really wrap your arms around. It's like, are these guys just lollygagging back into into the you know, the scheduling of things, the scheme of things. It's funny before the NBA all started break it seems to sort of behave the same way. Um, yeah, agreed. Were you involved in any of the lebron stuff bet wise last night? I had some action on him to break the record last night, and unfortunately I put more of my steak on him to break the record in the fourth quarter than I did on just breaking the record last night. Um and yeah, ten seconds away, Yeah, it was still it was still a cool scene. And you know a lot of people just was just firing off a third hot takes about just really started to carry like this is start your time, take your time, like if you you remember cal Ripken when he broke the Ironman streak, like they he does the trot around the whole field, high fives everyone. Mark McGuire breaking the Rober Merris home run record. It was literally like they bring his kids down from the stands. Everybody's crying and getting photos. Like, you know, guys, this is this is something you're only ever going to see once in your life. You probably we are never going to see this broken. Like you know, he's going to play for another three or four years. Here, this is going to be an unbreakable record. Um, and you know it's you should soak it in like this stuff is very cool. Seeing Tiger Woods winning the Masters, unbelievable moment like we do. We've see in Messy win the World Cup. Like these moments, you know, you gotta save him. You can't be you can't be a contrarian. We do, we become so jaded. You gotta save these moments. And you're right there. This one will will not be broken in our lifetime, Drew, that's for sure. Um. The cal Ripken one was the best two thousand one consecutive games of showing up. Baby. Let's take our laps they grew two fastballs to him and knocked him out of the park as well. Coming back board, Drew did six Super Bowl fifty seven. On the other side, aggressive rug pulling substituting for tanking these days coming back Numbers Game. Recently Sports Betting Network The Numbers Game the Sports Betting Network. Billy Walter's the Michael Jordan of Sports Bettors reveals what's in his upcoming tell all book in a one hour special Thursday here on Visa vs. Sports Betting Network. Brent Musburger sat down with Walters this week to discuss his life growing up in Kentucky, his move out to Vegas, how he rose to fame as Vegas is most feared sports better, his relationship with golfer Phil Mickelson, his time in prison, and much more. Go to Visa dot com for a sneak peak including Walters lean for Sunday Super Bowl, and tune in for the full interview at nine pm Eastern six pm Pacific on a Thursday, exclusively right here at Visa the Sports Betting Network, and we will run a clip specifically involving Brent asking Billy about his thoughts on Phil Mickelson, and we'll give some context to the old uh film Michelson involvement in the Billy Walters saga. Here coming up after we talked to Drew. By the way, Drew, well, before we get to this, I want to I want to read some tweets because I have some context because I'm doing the megapod after the show. And Tim Lawson, who does the Better Life podcast, which is we we loved him and we love going on that podcast. Um. Tim is the unofficial historian of the Beating the Book podcast in the Megapod, and he noted this. He said, uh, because we're gonna go through a bunch of historical Megapod notes when we do the megapod. But he says, Drew Dinsi's first Megapod appearance was week seven of He has been on for every wild Card episode since then, six total appearances regular in postseason. How about that? I love that man. That and that doesn't include the tennis ones. That's just the Megapod. Yeah, that's like a whole another category. Appreciate it. Um, we'll get to some tweets here momentarially. Um, all right, let's talk Super Bowl fifty seven. Yeah, what so, let's here We are We're just a few days away. Now your bet Let's reiterate. What are your bets that you have in pocket? What are you still thinking about betting? So I've talked myself into quite the pretzel here, pretzel um throughout my life, you know, and you know this girl, When you get to the end of a regular season, prices markets markets are tight. Yeah, prices are fair. You get to the end of a tennis tournament. Prices are fair because there's just not a lot of uncertainty by the time you get to this point in the season. And so I have trained my brain through the years to be like, there are no big edges in the big game. Cool off, man, chill out, just to enjoy the end of the season. You're you're at the finish line. You had a good season, you want money, You're at to finish line, chill out. And yet this price is dead freaking wrong. This is the wrong price, I know to my heart. And so I'm looking at the board and I'm like, okay, uh, do I go ham and say, look, this is the most liquid market with the wrong price I'm going to see in a long time, or do I uh, you know, just like live with the reality that you know, hey, there's maybe there's something that I don't understand or I don't know about this matchup that I'm missing, and this is actually going to be a competitive game. Uh. And so either I go, you know, go ham here and you know, and and reap the rewards if they if the Chiefs ultimately blow doors, or I, you know, I stick with my normal mathematical staking, which I believe in, uh and just kind of lived with the result. Uh. And you know, and and after the fact, if it's close, and then she's like, yeah, okay, it was. It was a good market. But um, I am nowhere. You know, I'm nowhere near Eagles minus two, Eagles minus one twenty here. I have a realistically uh you know, significant edge here towards the Chiefs based on the way I priced this game. Uh. And you know, I've so far at least I've staked Chiefs money line. I've taken Chiefs plus one and a half. Um. And you know, I'm not over staked here. I'm not going crazy yet. Um. But everyone I talked to were coming because of the same kind of handful of points here, which I think are extremely relevant in this handicap and uh. And you know it started with kind of doubt about the Eagles quarterback being healthy. You know, I didn't love the way that he has thrown the ball since he's come back from his shoulder injury. His completion percentage over expectation has fallen appreciably from what we saw from him in the beginning part of the season. Um, the average depth of target is down and he still is not completing balls at the same rate he was earlier in the season. And on top of all this, like just doesn't pass the eye test. The deep ball was there against the Niners and he couldn't make those throws. Uh. And now you put him in a you know, the pressure type of situation in the Super Bowl, which he's never been in before. Uh. And you know, ask him to do it against the Chiefs team that's going to be able to score into the high twenties thirties, and you say, hey, man, like, if you don't get into the high twenties thirties, you're not winning this game. Uh. This feels like you have a realistic potential where he's coming out and either he can't do it physically or the mental part of the you know this moment is too big, and he looks like he looked against the Bucks in the playoffs last year, and I think there are there's just a long tail here where the Eagles are not competitive and they're not scoring. Uh. And everybody's gone out of their way to kind of focus on the fact that they're good at every other position and the offensive line is so amazing and the running game is so spect Yeah, that's fine. But if if Pat Mahomes is lighting you up because you play, you know, a soft zone defense and you know he's fully healthy, and you know he has Travis Kelsey, who is an enormously important mismatch you know for the Chiefs offense against Eagles defense, like this could get out of hands, you know, to score lead. Jalen Hurts, good luck, buddy, Like go go answer with the Chiefs to the rest of this game. Like I I just I see way too many game states where the Eagles are in trouble here. Uh. And the idea that we're getting the best quarterback that we've ever seen play the game just from a number standpoint as a dog in the Super Bowl is mind melting to me. I Mean, this is a perfect conditions, perfect weather, you know two weeks, Diverse and Cold will recover. Uh. You know you're except for McCole Hartman, you have now a full complement of weapons, at least that he's been used to all season. You have Andy Reid, who's now in his fourth Super Bowl, momes in his third. The different the disparity and experience between coach and quarterback in this Super Bowl is is a is a grand canyon. Uh. And you know this is amazing to me that number one people expect this to be a shootout with both offenses just operating you know, perfectly, h efficiently. Uh. And you know number two that the Chiefs would be dogs in this guy game. I'm I'm still like just absolutely um, you know, dumbfounded why the market hasn't come around on the Chiefs being the better team here. And you know it's it's I'm gonna go down with the ship one way or the other. But I'm either going to feel like I left money on the table if the Chiefs do well, or I'm gonna feel like an idiot if you know this was a fair market. Well, I'm with you. I'm on the Chiefs. I won't lie to you. It sounds like by by game time that you will go Ham. To you to use your terminology, Yeah, I would bet on that. Really, that was a very passionate speech to not go Ham, is what I'm saying. Uh, did you bet any associated props them correlated to that conviction? Yes? So so far, I've I've got a decent amount of staking here. Um, you know, outside of the ridiculous ones like you know, halftime show and national anthem and stuff. I have Eagles team total under twenty and a half at two to one. I have longest complete for Jalen Hurts under thirty seven and a half. I have Jalen Hurts over one over a half interception plus one ten. My best price on the Chief's money line I got plus one fourteen the week of the the opener. But I got a decent stake on that. So I'm feeling that that's that's my biggest skin in this game. Um. And as we get closer, like you said, like if I go Am, I think I'm just gonna pepper some alts here because again there's like there's a long tail here. Okay. The somewhat known in my mind is that the Chiefs are going to get into the high twenties low thirties. Right, that's to me a tight distribution of how they finished this game. In terms of total points, the Eagles distribution to me has a long tail to them scoring fourteen, ten, even three. Like I could see the Eagles offense just completely deer in the headlights here not being competitive. Because I think, regardless of your conviction on this game, even if you're betting on the Eagles, like that statement that you just made, I think reasonable minds ought to agree with that, right, like that that the the points distribution for the Chiefs is more defined, and that the Eagles have a much wider variant of outcomes. And there is that scenario. We've talked about this all the time these last couple of weeks, and you know, it's been ten days, so we probably said it too many times that it gets lost in ten days, which is the Eagles. It's not their fault. They can only play the teams in front of them. Their biggest win, one could argue, is against the Lions because they've played such a relatively easy schedule. It's amazing to say that about a team that's just about to play in the Super Bowl. They have been able to get ahead of their opponents by and large and play to their game script. Washington throw a monkey wrench into that. We saw what happened. Um, so that's a that's a tough thing to handicap, right, because if if the Eagles then fall behind, You're right, like it could get out of hand. That's a possible scenario where it's really, do we really see the opposite as a possibility? I would say no, yeah, And like I can, the closest analog I can point to hear for the Eagles is the Rams when they went up against the Patriots. He had the inexperience in that moment of McVeigh and Jared Goff and um, you know, they completely laid an egg in that Super Bowl against the more experienced Bell Check and Brady and I think, you know, and yeah, that was a much better defense in terms of just concepts, I guess. But Steve Spagnolos, and he's been around the block a bunch, he's you know, he he is, And honestly like the way that the Chiefs like to defend if they are having success on first and second down, keeping the Eagles, you know, into kind of disadvantaged third downs if they can do that once out of every uh, you know, three three sets of downs. Uh, then the Eagles are cooked. Because the Eagles on third and long like best of luck to you, like we're bringing, we are bringing the zone blitz. We are going to frustrate and fluster Hurts. He's going to have to either get it done on the ground and at that point, if you're third and seventh, third and nine, that becomes very difficult, or he's gonna have to make precision passes down the sidelines. And I just haven't seen it from him so long at this point that I don't believe it's it's highly likely that he's going to be able to do it. So um, that's where I'm at here. And you know, hey, ball can bounce in crazy ways. It's an oblong football. Penalties, turnovers, all that stuff could end up mattering. But for me at least, this is Chiefs of Pass Jrwsky appreciate it as always been. That's the luck guys, enjoyed the big game. You to be happy we weren't on all under tabul with me last night, squandering three match points, squanders, brutal trun everybody at well underscore Capper. We will come back, Billy Walters, Brent with Billy on Phil Mickelson and how did Phil Mickelson avoid jail time after all this time? All that on a numbers game at best in the Sports Betting Now Numbers game Sports Betting Network attended. Ben mgm customers have a friend who loves sports as much as you do, Well, here's a chance for both of you to earn a fifty dollar bonus when they sign up through ben MGMs or for a friend program. Here's how it works. Just signed into your bed mgm account, click on the refer a friend program to send your friend a message inviting them to register a new account in the same state that you use bet mgm in. Once your friend signs up, it makes a deposit. They'll receive a fifty dollar bonus, and once your friend places a bet with their bonus in the wager's settled, you'll receive a fifty dollar bonus as well. Share the excitment of bet mgm and get a fifty dollar bonus. Visit bet mgm dot comfert terms of conditions. Mustly twenty one years of age or older to wager. All promotion subject to qualification and eligibility requirements reward just who has issued rather as non with your allable bonus bets. Bonus bets expire in thirty days. Gambling problem call one gamblers always promotional offer not available in Mississippi and Nevada. It's skill Alexander Um Billy Walters the greatest. Here's the thing. Billy Walters by the way, Exclusive Visa interview Tomorrow nine pm Eastern, six pm Pacific, Brent Musburger interviewing. And I think the best way to sort of give context to Billy Walters for those who are unfamiliar is, uh, when we were doing Primetime Action, Kelly, you will remember that Roxy Roxboro was was adjacent to the studio. I called him in. I'm like, hey, Roxy, let's do a segment. Isaiah got upset about it. But in that segment, Billy Walters had one of the great excuse me, Roxy Roxboro had one of the greatest quotes about Billy Walters of all time, which is, was he the greatest sports better who ever lived? Oh? No, pardon me? Was he the greatest handicapper who ever lived? Maybe? Was he the greatest sports better who ever lived? Unquestionably that is who Billy Walters is and so many tentacles to this interview that Brent did with Billy Walters. Here's a clip about Billy's relationship with Phil Mickelson. Tell me how you how you met Phil Mickelson. I'm at Phil Knuckelson and two thousand and six at the A T and T. I made the cut, were the amateur cut, which was quite an accomplishment. And I was playing with Frederick Frederick yokulperson and I happened to be heard in the same group with with Phil, and clearly I know who he was. And I got a real strong impression that he who he knew who I was because in the first round of golf, we we we talked about sports from the time we t off a little time we came in. I was around a bookmaker who in Las Vegas, who said that Phil Nicholson came in and made a big preseason bet on the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl the year they wanted. And he said, Phil has been losing to me ever since, and uh, and he won that. But Phil winds up owing you a lot of money. Did that come about through sports betting? Or I can't imagine You're a good golfer. But I can't imagine you beat him Phil regularly. Well, first of all, you're right, I never beat him regularly playing golf. Well, we played golf together, and uh, I would say it was probably tit for tat. But as far as uh Phil Owen me and money, Uh, we had a gambling relationship that lasted for six years. Uh. From my perspective, I think it was more than that. I think we became friends. And the book that I've written, uh, it will go into detail about what that relationship was. It included the trial that I was involved with in the southern district of the Inside Zas by the federal government. Actually they end up being proven so but but anyway, so much for that. The way things worked out filling out will overhe the relationship we have today. I was told that you feel that if Phil had agreed to testify, that you would not have been found guilty, true or false. I think that's in the public already out there, and I think I've already said that, and yes, that's true. M hm. So let me give context of that because I cannot wait to hear the rest of this. Um So Billy Walters um was convicted. He was sentenced to five years in prison, was ordered to pay ten million dollars after being convicted insider trading in twenty seventeen out of prison. If you recall, because at the age of seventy three, during the pandemic, Walters was considered vulnerable to COVID nineteen, which was surging in prisons across the US. So he was released from prison in two But what he was saying there about you know what Brent was alluding to their Billy Walters is quoted as saying, here's a guy talking about Phil Mickelson. That all he had to do was come forward and tell the truth. That was all he had to do. The guy wouldn't do that because he was concerned about his image. He was concerned about his endorsements. My god, in the meantime, a man's life is on the line. He's going to go to prison. So let's backtrack now. So this is it's an amazing story about how Phil Mickelson, one of the most famous golfers in our lifetime, avoided prosecution. And it goes back to Billy Walter's meeting uh Tom Davis in the mid nineties. Tom Davis was a board member of the Dallas based company Dean Foods, one of the largest daily dairy processors in the country. And Davis was one of these guys who was not a good gambler. Lost two hundred thousand dollars black jack at the Cosmo, stole a hundred thousand dollars, stole a hundred thousand dollars from a shelter for battered women in Dallas for which he had raised funds in the past. Davis used the money to pay for a surprise party for his wife. Then he took another fifty thousand dollars from from the shelter. Just not a good guy, and so he ultimately paid back the charity, but he did so with money that he borrowed from Billy Walters, and so in time he had borrowed over a million dollars from Billy Walters and inn they concocted a scheme and this was all prosecuted. So I'm not speaking out of turn here where they were going to really in essence, and this is whether we're convicted for or do some insider trading. Now insider trading. Because Davis was on the board of Dean Foods, he was able to through a different cell phone that had a whole system worked down. But essentially Billy Walters, the federal government proved was able to profit from either realized or unrealized profits and avoiding losses basically netted out to forty three million dollars in the end. And so Davis then ends up singing, right, He ends up cooperating because he was up for like, you know, a hundred twenty years in jail or something, so he ends up singing, and that's how the prosecution occurs. Now here's the thing about, here's where Phil Mickelson comes in, and this comes into US law. And here's the fascinating part. Insider trading is not a is a very vague thing in federal criminal law. It's it's not Congress never passed anything specifically worded about insider trading. So you ended up prosecutors basically improvising bringing insider trading cases under other statutes that were, you know, designed for for business fraud cases. Anyway, it's not clear what constitutes insider trading, and so you've had different laws. So here's how it happened. So this guy Tom Davis is the tipster, the insider. He gives it to Billy Walters Party B, who's the tippy, the guy getting the insider information all their While they're doing all that stuff which we just documented, Billy Walters, Party B, let's call it Party A B and C is also giving this information to Phil Mickelson, who had befriended let's call Phil Mickelson Party C. The reason that Phil Mickelson didn't get prosecuted is because he lucked out into a window of time prior, just prior to the this case being tried in courts, there was a different case in New York where they determined that if you were party C, meaning you had no contact with the actual insider that it went through another party, that you couldn't get prosecuted. And so Phil Mickelson and the Billy Walters case got prosecuted right after that was established, right after Phil Mickelson was therefore deemed not to be able to to get prosecuted because of this precedent that was already said in New York. There was a subsequent case in California where that was reversed and it was deemed that party C, even if you didn't have direct contact with the insider, Party A you could actually get prosecuted. So the net of that is and this was wonderfully described by Jeffrey Tuban, who is now the disgraced sort of CNN legal uh analyst. We won't get into why he was disgraced. That's all another story, um, But essentially, if Phil Mickelson had been prosecuted before December or after December, he'd be toast. But because it was in that window, he skated. It's a fastening worry. That is the only reason, Kelly, why Phil Mickelson, known to all as you know, multiple major winner, avoided federal prosecution. I mean, I'm looking forward to hearing, you know, hearing more from Billy tomorrow night yet Thursday, tomorrow night, Yeah night, Thursday, nine pm, Tomorrow night, nine pm, six pm Pacific. I'm looking forward to hear more about that, right, because that's the you know, the whole reason he's getting that, you know, that information from Billy, right, is because the gambling, these gambling debts that he had. And this is well, because that's the part, right, So film the same way that that Tom Davis owed Billy Walter's money, Phil Mickelson, because of gambling debts, owed Billy Walters, and that was their way of getting Billy Walters paid back. You profit from this insider trading, which, by the way, they proved happened. All Phil Mickelson did had to do in the end was pay all the money that he profited back. He never admitted any wrong doing anything. And Billy Walter's Brent the interview just pointed out there believes that if he were able to testify, Billy Walters would have never gone to jail. It's wild man's wild. It's also like this live stuff has gone so far now that people forget right almost that Phil was at the beginning and a large he took a large chunk of money. There's a reason why remember that Roxy Rox broke. Roxy had more interaction with Billy through the years than anything as the Las Vegas sports consultant founder. Is he the greatest handicapper of all time? Maybe? Is he the greatest sports bedder of all time? Unquestionably, we'll come back Will Hill on the other side, numbers, game Vista, these sports betting nowhere

A Numbers Game

Gill Alexander takes his audience on an informative ride through the analytics world, focusing on th 
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