Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodski. I am your host. Thank you all for being here again this week. This week is a solo episode because this is a number Game podcast and there was a ton of data that came out this week, and I thought, let's have a very autistic episode starring just me where I can give you everything that you're here for, and then we'll presume with a guest come next week. But there's three topics I want to get to on today's episode, which is the Trump whole bounce, what is going on in New York State that I think is super interesting, and then data that came out about the twenty twenty four election that is very, very vital. So let's start though with the Trump bounce. For those who don't know now, a month ago, right the media was loving it because Trump's numbers were down double digits in a number of very highly accredited public holes. Public polls are not usually as good as private polls, but they make cross tabs available, they work with media outlets, they get a lot of coverage. So these polls were coming out showing Trump's numbers in the dumps. It was right after Liberation Day and fears of recession were at a huge high, and since then, well we haven't had a recession. Actually, the numbers from the economy are doing pretty good. There was a reduction in prices in wholesale prices, wages are up over three percent, inflation is steady. Things are going well for the economy. The economy is fairly strong, and this has been very good news for Donald Trump. So I looked at the seven polls that had come out recently that also came out a month ago. They are Insider Advantage, Morning Consult, the Economists, the Daily Mail, who James Johnson, who came on this podcast a couple weeks ago, RMG Research, Quantus, and Emerson and Quantas was the third most accurate polster of the twenty twenty four election cycle, and I believe Insider Advantage was the second, and Emerson was probably the fourth. So highly accredited polling firms, but not the type of polling firms that get huge coverage like The New York Times does, or like NBC News does or whatnot, but good polls. Right, their overall net approval for Donald Trump in on four thirty was about negative four three point six Right, The Economist and the Daily Mail having double digit losses, and then RMG Research being at zero, Emerson being plus two instead of Vanage being plus two, but overall negative four. If you look at the average of those of those seven polling firms. Now Trump has a one point approval rating net approval rating that means people you know, if the providing is fifty forty nine percent the negative is forty eight percent right, and favorable rating of one point. He grew about four point one points in favorability over the last month. That is substantial. I did the deep dives in all the cross steps that were publicly available to me. A big part of the bump seems to be coming from one man men across the board, which would make sense if men felt like a recession was happening at any time, that it would be important to sit there into that they would have fears and they'd have worries, and that maybe their numbers would go down among men, but their backup Republicans are back up men across every racial line, by the way, saw a bounce which was very very important. But interestingly enough, the number among Democrats had increased, specifically minority Democrats, and what I wonder were those pollsters tracking black men and Hispanic men who are still Democrats, but they voted for Trump, and they were the ones having quasi buyers remorse for a period of time, and now they're back on the train because the recession that was the media said was going to happen just never happened. I also wonder, and this is part of my analyst media brain working, because the news of Joe Biden's health and the book that had come out with Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson called Original Sin was out. I wonder if the conversation being so heavily about Joe Biden is now feeding into people's like psyche. Oh yeah, this guy was in charge for four years and he was not only wrecking the economy causing runaway inflation the egg prices were going up, but also he was not mentally acute or had mental decline. According to some people, he could have had cancer. This entire time. Some doctors were on television sitting there and saying, there's no way this cancer diagnosis is recent. I don't know. I'm not a doctor. I barely pass high school biology. But this is I think part of the narrative because historically in the twenty sixteen election, in the twenty twenty election, and in the twenty twenty four election, when the focus has not been on Trump, when that heavy media obsession and gaze has not been so focused on Donald Trump to the point that they're wondering, if you know how many scoops of ice from he eats? Does he have the channel of the apes fighting? This was an old news headline. But when that focus is not on him to a ridiculous standpoint where he's, you know, a fascist who's going to end the world, people generally start thinking favorably of him. There's an unhealthy news cycle. So I think that that is when that is dimmed. Because we're focusing on Joe Biden's health so much, and the recession that was supposed to happen never did happen. Maybe people's feelings on Trump relaxed because the media fears never amounted to anything. That's what I think. If Trump can now come out in the next few weeks with a deal, a trade deal, because he's got a couple I guess in the works of the EU and several other countries, and if he's able to maybe broke or some kind of peace deal with either Iran or slow one of the wars down. Not that I don't think Americans cared that much about it, but it would be a nice news cycle if either the Ukraine or Israel stop fighting. That would be more positive praise in his direction. And improve upon it at a critical time. We'll see. But overall for Trump right now, he's had a very very good couple of weeks. Republicans need this improvement as they get their tax bill done, as they get the budget passed, and all the infighting around it kind of is very intense over spending limits and assault deductions and all the rest of it, and no tax on tip. But as they get those things through the finish line, to sit there and try to go to middle class voters, working class voters and say and senior citizens and say, look what we delivered for you, Please reelect us give us the House majority again, which is on the tipping point a number of polls. He needs not to seem like an essential threat. He needs people to be liking the job that he's doing, and right now they are, so this is a big win for him. The other thing that I wanted to talk about there was another poll that didn't get any publicity whatsoever that I thought was very interesting. It came out of Siena College. Sana College is a college in upstate New York. Never been there, but they do work with The New York Times a lot during the presidential cycles. They're considered a very accurate polster. I think they have got an A rating by most analysts. They produced a report on the election coming up for governor that wasn't very interesting. But in the election underneath, the election of vote them was all primary stuff. So Stephanic versus Lawlor for the Republican side and Kathy Helkel for the election. None of it was interesting. The interesting thing, though, was when and they asked them, as the New Yorkers, how they feel on several issues. Right, so like New Yorkers still hate congestion pricing, that didn't change. But the issues that were very interesting was this. They asked New York State residents right, New York State, Liberal Democratic state New York State residents if the state government under Governor Kathy Hochel should be assisting the Trump administration in deporting illegal immigrants. A plurality of New Yorkers said yes. Forty five percent of New Yorkers said that the state of New York under Governor Kathy Hochel should be working with Donald Trump to deport illegal immigrants. Thirty eight percent said no, they shouldn't. Twelve percent said they were somewhere in the middle, they didn't know how they felt about it. The interesting thing was not only was it basically universally yes among Republicans, twenty five percent of Democrats said they should be working with Trump to deported league immigrants, and a majority of Independence fifty one percent of Independence said yes. Other groups that had a huge number men fifty percent, not shocking, but women women were forty one forty three. They were evenly split, which says a lot. They also had almost majority of Union members. They had forty percent of residents of New York City. New York City I think went thirty percent for Trump, so ten points more than voted for him wanted his deportation to happen. Fifty percent of white residents, twenty seven percent of blacks, and among Hispanics it was tied. It was forty one forty three, which is tied in the marginal error, but forty one forty three said yes. Forty one percent of Latinos. This is once again wall two wall negative mainstream news coverage of the Maryland Man, of innocent people accidentally being arrested, of you know, and fear, and white liberals losing their mind each and every single day, and all the ethnic lobby coming out and sitting there and saying this is terrorism. This is I think. Governor Mike Waltz compared ICE agents to the Gestapo very very much, showing how much he supports law enforcement. Among Catholics in New York State, it was fifty four percent Jews. It was forty seven to forty two. They were one of the most liberal groups in New York, although the Hasidics and Orthodox are not. But the majority population though is pretty liberal. Protestants it was fifty five percent, fifty percent of middle income earners. That is wild. This is New York State. The other part, the other question that there was was would you see support a total outright ban on transgender students playing in any school and any girls' sport, transgender women being biological and playing in girl sports, a total ban in every school. Would you want the school districts to decide individually or would you want a total support like every school has to allow transgender, transgender girls biological men to play in girls sports. Right, this is what New York residents said. Forty six percent of New York residents wanted a full outright ban. They didn't want individual districts to decide. They wanted a straightforward ban, including a third of Democrats, fifty four percent of independence, fifty percent of men, forty four percent of women, which is the biggest plurality of that group of women. Right, A plurality of Democrats set a full outright ban. A third of Democrats that was higher than any other category, A third right, forty percent of people in New York City, which was the plurality of any of the other categories. Other groups, A majority of the people in the suburbs, a majority of the people in upstate, forty three percent of black residents. This was a majority of Catholics, a majority of Protestants, a plurality of Jews. I'm looking at the numbers right now. That is incredible in my mind. And here's why it is incredible. Those two questions in particular, New York State moved the most right of any state in the country in the last election. I have lived in New York basically my entire life. I know the state very well, I know residents very well. It is not that New York State is all of a sudden going to be a swing state, although I do believe it will continue to move several points to the right. If you look at all the other questions they asked about free lunches, about like more spending on social welfare policies, New Yorkers are overwhelmingly for it right. They have a left wing center left access to them that high lights why they vote so liberally. However, a big, big caveat is on these issues that people most associate with failed governance by the Democratic Party. Even twenty five to thirty percent of Democrats are willing to balk at them. A huge percentage of minorities are willing to sit there and say no. Catholics, who historically were very Democratic right, there's a lot of Hispanics in the Catholic Church in New York, but there's also a lot of ethnic Whites in the Catholic Church. New York Union members. These are people that should never be aligning with the Republican Party and on these issues that are the most identifiable with a single party and their governance. You have overwhelming numbers on the side of the Conservatives, which explains why these overall trends of working class, people, of middle class, people of some younger people of ethnic minorities are moving away from the Democratic Party even though the despite they probably agree with them on most economic issues. They feel uncomfortable with mass immigration, they feel uncomfortable with the illegal immigration, They feel uncomfortable with the transgender sports issue. There was another poll that came out earlier today. I'm recording this on Wednesday for the Thursday episode. It was from Wisconsin, and they asked would you support a full deportation of illegal immigrants? And sixty six percent said yes. This is after hyperbolic reactions from Democrats giving worst case scenarios over and over and over again, and yet Joe Biden so broke the back of the American people when it comes to the issue immigration. They do not care. The sympathy bank is completely empty. And there is something in our culture called how do I put this toxic empathy where you are to feel bad for someone who is doing you harm. That has been behind the main driver of many of our political decisions in our culture, which had been very bad for a very long time, and it was surrounding our immigration choices for a while, or allowing our immigration laws to be skirted for a while. That is completely run dry, so very interesting. If the Democratic Party continues to be associated with these bad governing policies, if they don't make an abrupt u turn like the Labor Party, as we mentioned in the last episode about what's going on in England right now, then I would expect places like New Jersey, California, and New York where these issues are front and center because Democrats refuse to change ways on it, to be moving more of their voters to the right. Maybe we'll make California or New York swing state. Maybe we'll make a few more distress competitive. It absolutely will be making New Jersey a swing state. And I think that's very interesting. There's one more data stuff that I want to talk about with you guys. It is a blockbuster. Not going to want to miss it. Stay tuned for these messages. All right, we are back. And the last thing that I wanted to bring up to you as far as the data goes, as far as my autistic my autistic marathon goes, is there is I know the election was like, you know, months and months ago, and everyone's kind of passed it. But there is three organizations that do post election reviews that are super insightful for describing and analyzing what actually happened, what actually went through. I mean, the exit polls came out, but like the exit polls are wrong most of the time. So there's three organizations. There's David Shore, who is, you know, very smart, but I think he's a liberal. I don't think he wants to be on with the Beeber guy, but who knows. I'm a big fan still. I think that he's a genius. His stuff came out a month ago. That's where I said that seventy five per according to his analysis, seventy five percent of eighteen to twenty one year old white men in this country voted for Trump. It was the large group that vote of a Trump of any demographic. That was his data that came in a few months ago. Then there's the Pew Research Center. It's coming out in a few weeks to months. I'm looking forward to that. I will talk about that. I know everyone will be done with it by that point, but I will talk about it because I can't get enough and then the last is an organization called Catalyst. Now they have been doing this since twenty twelve and they are out with their report. It came out on Monday. It is a blockbuster and it breaks apart a lot of what Democrats have excused for Kamala Harris's loss. So there's six points I want to go through. The first being Democrats said that they had a turnout problem. Right, you hear this over and over and over again. Oh, if Omar Billigs turned out, they would have he would have won. He would have won. Sure, So that was incorrect. What the Catalyst information says is that not only was turnout, yes, turnout was lower nationwide, but turnout was higher in the swing states. So he they you have the turnoff that they wanted in swing states. The swing state participation rate was over seventy percent, which was higher than the sixty four percent nationwide. So there was this excessive higher amount of turnout in places like Georgia and Arizona and Nevada where they wanted to have massive turnout. They got there, but it didn't matter because Trump had won over persuasion. People wanted him because they were persuaded to vote for him and they were not persuaded to vote for Kamalo. Secondly, turnout wasn't the same everywhere. This is something that Democrats are right about, but it's not super coherent. Turnout was down nationwide from twenty twenty to twenty twenty four, right, but it wasn't even across the board. Among white voters, it was down one percent. Among blacks, it was down five point six percent, among Latinos three percent, and among Asians six point seven percent. When you go into the Swing States, however, black turnout was down one point six percent, among black men two percent. Now, I want you to go back to old media interviews in your head if you remember them. Like there's Van Jones who was on CNN with a few times and he was a very nice person. I'm not behind the scenes, gentlemen, but he would say all the time that there is this push to get black men to support kamal law, to get the first woman across the finish line. The Charlemagne, the God did the same exact thing. They were all sitting there and saying there's this push to get black man. We're gonna get black men, We're gonna get black men. Didn't get black men In fact, in swing states, even where they did the souls, the polls everything, black male participation dropped two percent, But guess what black female participation dropped as well. Black female participation dropped by one percent in swing states. Now, aside from Wisconsin, one percent wouldn't have made up the difference. I don't e think what blackmen make up ten percent to make one percent, So it doesn't really matter. Black women weren't that interested in Kamala either. The narrative that Black Americans were not sold on Kammala as like being a brown a glass of shatterer, the same way they were over Obama. Let's say it's true Trump mentioned it, was called a racist for it, but even like Janet Jackson was saying it, people were saying it all over the all over that there was a large percentage of Black America who were not sold that she was part of their community and they were not needing to go vote for her. White support was up one point five percent, but it was mostly driven by white women. White women did show up in big numbers, it was up for white men as well. Latinos showed up and increased numbers as well. Okay, that's that's that's important. Second point of the entire thing, the racial breakdown, because the white number had decreased the lowest amount nationwide and increased the highest in swing states, was unchanged from twenty twenty. Now there's this constant notion that, oh, you know, whites are decreasing in every electorate. Didn't happen in twenty twenty. It didn't happen in twenty sixteen, Monch either. It was basically the same in twenty sixteen, but it'd not been in twenty twenty four. But the one thing that did happen with the racial and an education breakdown that is extremely important is for the very first time ever as far as I can go back, and this is especially of the Catalyst research, non college educated whites were no longer the largest voting block in the Democratic coalition. They have been surpassed by college educated whites. Believe it or not, even though the spokespeople for the Democratic Party absolutely hate non college educated white people and trash talk them constantly. They were still about a third of all Kamala voters, but they were almost forty percent. They were thirty seven percent of all guidance supporters versus twenty four percent sorry Biden Obama twenty twelve, they were almost They were thirty seven percent of all Obama voters and only thirty one percent of all Comma voters. Kamala and the Democratic Party, because of their aggressive attacks against working class white people, have sheed twenty percent of their non college educated white voting base, twenty percent of the largest single demographic in the country. So while they increase their numbers among college educated whites and lost a lot of non college educated whites, they've also lost a lot of black support over time because of declining participation rates, especially going back to Obama. And they're stagnant with the Latinos because as even the Latinos are growing in population, they are not increasing their size and support for the Democratic Party. It's gotten done significantly since Obama. One other caveat that I thought was really really interesting, twenty percent of people who voted for Trump were non white. That is the biggest single Republican candidacy ever as far as a minority constituency, one in five. That's never happened before, not even for George W. Bush. It is it is the multi racial working class that a lot of people have sat there and talked about okay. Third point, there is this big notion that like, white women are the end of the world, and they're all Karens. This is an ocean among like the right, it's all white women who are you know, the ones pushing all the progressive agenda and they are pushing the Democratic Party to the left. White women, however, voted more for Trump in this election than they voted for him in the last election. Trump won white women in this country. I fifty two to forty eight. We got the catalyst, probably gets rid of all the third party things, so they make it even fifty to fifty fifty two forty eight. Among college educated white women, Trump actually improved by one point from twenty twenty. He actually did better among college educated white women. After I don't know how many times I was on the CNN panel hearing about fascism and abortion rights and abortion rights and abortion rights and these were going to move all these women over. He did one point better. All of that rhetoric was nonsense. All of that rhetoric was complete and total nonsense. Among white men. Among white men without a college degree, Harris only got thirty percent of the vote. Now think about it, white men are white people are about sixty percent of the country. White men are thirty percent White to a college degree of twenty percent is the single largest block. Maybe white women without a college degree are also similar, but a twenty percent one in five voters. They've lost twenty percent of their support, more than twenty percent of their support with that voting base since twenty twelve, super significant in the white vote and why the white vote has The white vote has been basically flat though for the last couple of election cycles, at forty two percent support for demrik Rats. And that is because college college educated whites have typically been moving to the left, although in this last election they moved to the right. White men with a college degree moved six points to the right. I know, I'm three on a lot of numbers. I will try to rein it back and get back to the narrative. Okay, minority men, this is where the popular vote win happened, right, It wasn't just I mean, making a Republican president is like baking a cake. The batter is the white vote. You can't win with if you don't get large sport with the white vote. The minority vote is the cream filling the the I don't know what are you put on a cake? Everything, all the trimmings is the minority vote. You can have a cake, but you can't have the trimmings about the minority vote. Okay, So that's the popular vote win. Among black men, ninety five percent of whom voted for Barack Obama, almost one hundred percent universe. So ninety percent of Black men vote for Barack Obama. Nine percent voted for Kamala Harris inde nine percent. Among battleground Black voters it was eighty four. So they did do a better job in the battlegrounds where they spent more resources. But in the nation as a whole, seventy nine percent. If it's seventy nine percent, nation went as a whole, and you were taking out place like Georgia and North Carolina, in other places like Mississippi, Alabama, probably Texas as a decent black population. You're talking about, you know, New York. It's probably you know, maybe a third. Trump probably got a third of the black vote. If you take out that portion among black women, that vote was stagnant, That vote is very hardly cemented. It was ninety percent of the Black women voted for Trump this time ninety percent voted last time. Maybe he went maybe one by half a point or less than half a point, but it wasn't significant. Black men, though, it is a gigantic drop ninety five to seventy nine among black women from twenty twelve overs it's a seven point drop, but among black men sixteen points. It is substantial. Among black men under the age of thirty, it's seventy five percent. One in four Black men under the age of thirty voted for Donald Trump. That is not a small, insignificant, minor group of people. That is not a tiny fraction of a coalition. That's one in four of the Democratic Party's base. Among Black women under thirty, it was eighty eight percent. So it was so younger black people in general, but mostly younger Black men, one in four versus go back twenty years ago, go back ten years ago to Barack Obama, it was like one in twenty five, we're voting four for the Republican. Now it's one in four. This is a crazy, crazy, crazy shift. Okay, go to latinos now, because this is wild. Trump won. This is the second time that has been confirmed. But this is this proves it, This proves it to be true. Trump won Latino men. I think George W. Bush may have won it, but the exit polling was really really bad at the time, so you can't really trust it. But Trump won Latino men by six points. That is insane. He only lost the over all Latino vote by eight. This is a group. Once again. Hillary won them by forty in the overall head to head according to catalysts, she won them seventy thirty. Harris won them fifty four to forty six. And the craziest thing was they asked them across the ages. They said, among ages, right, how old are you? How are you voting? Among the ages, young Latinos, millennial Latinos, zoomer Latinos, fifty seven percent voted for Harris. It dips down to fifty two or Gen xers and early boomers, and then goes back up to fifty seven. When you get to late Jane, sorry, late boomers and silent generation. So old Latinos and young Latinos at fifty seven all the middle of fifty two. What does that show you? That shows you that the reconfiguration, the realignment of minorities is universal. Now, this isn't true for black voters. Black voters. There is a substantial drop when you get younger, right, you go to older Black voters, it's still over ninety percent. They're immovable. The only way Republicans will win those voters they can't. I'm just gonna say something else, but they can't. Those voters will be Democrats of the day they die. It is the all. It is their natural born inheritance. There is no moving older Black voters. We can just give up on trying to whoever we have is all we're going to have. Of the older group, But the younger group, it's like a thirteen point overall drop when you include men and women, right, Latinos, it's across the board. The only group that is getting substantially more democratic as the younger are Asians. And I want to it to Asians. In one second, among Asians still democratic support for among Asians among for Barack Obama twenty twelve, seventy one percent, support for Kamala Harris twenty twenty four fifty five percent, another sixteen point drop. This is a male revolution, it's a male driven revolution. So those are the important things that it's the racial breakdown I think is very important. It does substantiate shores earlier conversation. It's substantially is what we thought that this was a male dominated movement and that the women are moving. But it is. But you have to go with the context of it's not all white women. In fact, the majority of white women's still voter for Republicans, stale voter for Donald Trump, and there is increased support among non white women who are not black. Black women are just immovable in college educated women, college educated white women right. Other still moved towards Trump, although they gave the majority of their support to Kamala Harris let's I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna land this plane very soon. I promised, stick with me if you're still with me. Right. They gave a demographic a demographic breakdown the only group two point two things one for the first time in my lifetime, first time Catalysts ever seen this. Not my lifetime, I'm kind of old now, but first time the Catalyst has reported this. Publicans won non college educated voters by double digits, first time ever. Right, huge among non college educated whites. Overall, they won them by twenty eight points. That's the same number he won them by in twenty sixteen. This is a general movement among a cementing of that base, non college educated white voters that you have to have to have to hear this point. It is so essential on college educated white voters were the only group in America demographically, education and race base right to give a majority of their support for Donald Trump. College educated whites didn't, Blacks didn't of any college education, Latinos didn't, Asians didn't, others didn't. It was solely, solely based on the vote of the non college educated white that gave a majority of their support to Donald Trump. I say that not because I want to emphasize that one group is better than the other or more loyal than the other. I want to say that because when we have conversations around what can the Republican Party do more for black voters or Latino voters, or this group or that group, or women or whatnot, I think it's very important to understand and to remind ourselves who is bringing home the votes to get a Republican elected. It is non college educated white voters. What is the Trump administration? What are Republicans? Congressional Republicans are they? What are the Republican governors? What are they doing for them? For all the analysts dribble, we have to hear constantly about what are we doing to sit there and shed one percentage more among black women? What are we doing to deliver support for our voters, whether that be tax cuts, whether that be opioid relief because their population has been deficit with the opioid effect, pro family stuff. What are we doing for those voters on all those issues? That should be the question Republicans should take from this as Wow, these are the only will give us a majority support? What are we doing for them? Has to be emphasized. Okay, landing the plane once again, back to the age range thing. Kamala Harris lost support among every single age range in the country. I had said this a while ago, that these polls were coming out New York Times, Sienna, especially where Harris seniors by like twenty points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and she was going to win the senior vote. The number of polls that said she was going to win the senior vote were were out of control. They were out of control. They were completely insane, and I didn't believe it for a second. Turns out it wasn't true. Senior citizens voted majority for Trump and actually increased their support for Donald Trump among Trump also won every age range of white voters. White voters between the age of eighteen to twenty nine voted for Trump by two points. This was a group that voted for Joe Biden. They had moved eight points to the right for Donald Trump. This is once again it goes back to what the David Shore was saying, where he said young people under twenty one who had lived during the worst of COVID were the most radical right wing. So maybe he was onto something right there. Double digit support and swing for Trump came from every bracket of Latino voters, over twenty points among young Latinos, double digits among Black voters under the age of forty five, and and a twenty point margin a twenty point swaying towards Trump among Asians in that category. That's also very important and why it's important one is seniors are changing, right people. People have come up to me a lot and say, what's going on with the senior But why are seniors becoming more liberal? They are not becoming more liberal. The seniors you have in your head as seniors are probably like your grandparents, or their friends who may or may not have passed away, right and increased likelihood. That's what comes with the age. It's sad. I'm not wishing anything, but that is what the truth is. Archie Bunker has passed away. Meathead is a senior. Henry Fonder Fonda has passed away. Jane Fonda is a senior. The liberal baby boomers are in their seventies and eighties, the greatest generation, the people who worked for Richard Nixon, the people who worked against the counter culturalists, the ones that you probably were seniors in your mind in the early two thousands, if you were like me, you're a millennial, and you know you watch little giants growing up. Those people, the World War II veterans that you see in the stands who are rooting on the pee football team, they're almost all gone. And it's the liberals who were middle aged at the time who are part of the counterculture that are like of the Joe Biden's era, or a little young or a little older, who are the ones who are seniors now. Nonetheless, and yet still they didn't know for a majority for Kamala Harris, which was a narrative the media was pushing endlessly. It's a narrative David Shup push which I disagreed with his data. I agree with the Kittle Catalyst data. Those are the narratives worth dispelling, worth breaking down. I had to go into it. I know that was long winded. I know that that was probably a lot for people to listen to. But thank you for hearing all the numbers because it's a numbers game. Okay, So this is the part of the podcast where I talk about I do you know questions I asked me anything segment? Ryant Email me Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com, Ryan at Numbers Plural, Numbers gamepodcast dot com. You can tweet me. I'm gonna put a pin tweet where I'll take questions from Twitter. If you no one can take the time to email me, It's fine you guys send me questions. I love to answer them on literally anything. That's what I usually do. But this week I came across a piece of gossip that I have to tell you guys about. I haven't tweeted this, I haven't talked about it. I'm saving it specifically for you. It's about a member of Congress. It is some of the wildest stories I've ever heard it is George Santos on steroids. I'll be back with it after these messages. Okay, we are back for the final segment, which is usually where I ask take questions, and I want your questions. Email me Ryan at numbers Game dot com right Ryan at numbers Game podcast dot com. Sorry by that, guys. Okay, so there is a Republican member of Congress. Stories are in the works right now, so I don't want to burst anyone's but some have been published already. This is a member of Congress. I'm not going to say the name because it's going to come out publicly, but I will give you an offense where if you're in the know, you will know. This is somebody who was a police had shown up at his house because he was having a domestic with his girlfriend, even though at the time he had said he was married to another woman. This is a person who has said that he has over exaggerated his military service to the point where it could be possibly considered stolen valor if you're in the military. I'm not so I don't know what the record says for that are, but I've heard people in the military say it's the degree that it's stolen valor. I have heard, and I'm going to get the journalist on here who's been working on it. I have heard his dealings, his business dealings, or to the millions and millions of dollars of debt, millions of dollars of debt, that it's extremely shady and I'm not sure if the debtors, the people who are lending money are even American. This is somebody who has been trying to sleep with every single conservative influencer woman in the business, saying repeated lies over and over and over again. And then this was the craziest thing. Multiple of these women told me that he was trying to convert them to Islam. Now, this is not a reported Muslim. This is somebody who says that he's a Christian, who where is his religion on his sleeve? Stories had emerged that he was married by a very prominent in mom in a mosque by the unindicted co conspirator of the nineteen ninety three World Trades utder bombing, that all of his business dealings are extraordinarily shady and weird, that his military record is completely and totally f acated, if not fabricated, over exaggerated, and there are multiple women speaking constantly with each other that he has created lies about the state of one his marriage where he says he's divorced when he's when he wasn't at the time, or maybe now he's divorced, but he wasn't at the time. And then once he gets in these relationships with them, these precarious relationships, they find themselves in position where they feel like they are threatened, and he spends time to sit there and say, I think the exact quotes that he was saying to them is how Islam and Christianity were close to the same thing, even though I'm not a religious scholar, but I know that much they're not. And he was married by the nineteen ninety three World Trade Center conspirat, a co conspirator. I am going to give it to the journalist. I'm going to invite him up. When this story is up, and there's a woman to who's doing another story on this, I'm going to write them both to talk about this. I know this is not typically a numbers game. It is the craziest, most salacious, most interesting news story about a person. If Donald Trump was not an office right now. This would be the front page of every single newspaper. This would be George Sando's on crack. But you know the media can only focus on Trump. That is my dog snoring, by the way, Smory about that. That's that little yelp that you hear. That's not me. It is a wild story. Not many people are covering it. I'm going to when this comes out because people's heads are going to explode. It is crazy. That's my little piece of gossip. Send me your messages Ryan at numbers gamepodcast dot com. Please like and subscribe to this podcast and iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, wherever podcasts are we ever give your podcast. I have some incredible guests coming up next week and the week after. You will not want to miss it. Please like and subscribe, give me a five star review if you're feeling generous, and I will see you guys next week

Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodski. I am your host. Thank you all for being here again this week. This week is a solo episode because this is a number Game podcast and there was a ton of data that came out this week, and I thought, let's have a very autistic episode starring just me where I can give you everything that you're here for, and then we'll presume with a guest come next week. But there's three topics I want to get to on today's episode, which is the Trump whole bounce, what is going on in New York State that I think is super interesting, and then data that came out about the twenty twenty four election that is very, very vital. So let's start though with the Trump bounce. For those who don't know now, a month ago, right the media was loving it because Trump's numbers were down double digits in a number of very highly accredited public holes. Public polls are not usually as good as private polls, but they make cross tabs available, they work with media outlets, they get a lot of coverage. So these polls were coming out showing Trump's numbers in the dumps. It was right after Liberation Day and fears of recession were at a huge high, and since then, well we haven't had a recession. Actually, the numbers from the economy are doing pretty good. There was a reduction in prices in wholesale prices, wages are up over three percent, inflation is steady. Things are going well for the economy. The economy is fairly strong, and this has been very good news for Donald Trump. So I looked at the seven polls that had come out recently that also came out a month ago. They are Insider Advantage, Morning Consult, the Economists, the Daily Mail, who James Johnson, who came on this podcast a couple weeks ago, RMG Research, Quantus, and Emerson and Quantas was the third most accurate polster of the twenty twenty four election cycle, and I believe Insider Advantage was the second, and Emerson was probably the fourth. So highly accredited polling firms, but not the type of polling firms that get huge coverage like The New York Times does, or like NBC News does or whatnot, but good polls. Right, their overall net approval for Donald Trump in on four thirty was about negative four three point six Right, The Economist and the Daily Mail having double digit losses, and then RMG Research being at zero, Emerson being plus two instead of Vanage being plus two, but overall negative four. If you look at the average of those of those seven polling firms. Now Trump has a one point approval rating net approval rating that means people you know, if the providing is fifty forty nine percent the negative is forty eight percent right, and favorable rating of one point. He grew about four point one points in favorability over the last month. That is substantial. I did the deep dives in all the cross steps that were publicly available to me. A big part of the bump seems to be coming from one man men across the board, which would make sense if men felt like a recession was happening at any time, that it would be important to sit there into that they would have fears and they'd have worries, and that maybe their numbers would go down among men, but their backup Republicans are back up men across every racial line, by the way, saw a bounce which was very very important. But interestingly enough, the number among Democrats had increased, specifically minority Democrats, and what I wonder were those pollsters tracking black men and Hispanic men who are still Democrats, but they voted for Trump, and they were the ones having quasi buyers remorse for a period of time, and now they're back on the train because the recession that was the media said was going to happen just never happened. I also wonder, and this is part of my analyst media brain working, because the news of Joe Biden's health and the book that had come out with Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson called Original Sin was out. I wonder if the conversation being so heavily about Joe Biden is now feeding into people's like psyche. Oh yeah, this guy was in charge for four years and he was not only wrecking the economy causing runaway inflation the egg prices were going up, but also he was not mentally acute or had mental decline. According to some people, he could have had cancer. This entire time. Some doctors were on television sitting there and saying, there's no way this cancer diagnosis is recent. I don't know. I'm not a doctor. I barely pass high school biology. But this is I think part of the narrative because historically in the twenty sixteen election, in the twenty twenty election, and in the twenty twenty four election, when the focus has not been on Trump, when that heavy media obsession and gaze has not been so focused on Donald Trump to the point that they're wondering, if you know how many scoops of ice from he eats? Does he have the channel of the apes fighting? This was an old news headline. But when that focus is not on him to a ridiculous standpoint where he's, you know, a fascist who's going to end the world, people generally start thinking favorably of him. There's an unhealthy news cycle. So I think that that is when that is dimmed. Because we're focusing on Joe Biden's health so much, and the recession that was supposed to happen never did happen. Maybe people's feelings on Trump relaxed because the media fears never amounted to anything. That's what I think. If Trump can now come out in the next few weeks with a deal, a trade deal, because he's got a couple I guess in the works of the EU and several other countries, and if he's able to maybe broke or some kind of peace deal with either Iran or slow one of the wars down. Not that I don't think Americans cared that much about it, but it would be a nice news cycle if either the Ukraine or Israel stop fighting. That would be more positive praise in his direction. And improve upon it at a critical time. We'll see. But overall for Trump right now, he's had a very very good couple of weeks. Republicans need this improvement as they get their tax bill done, as they get the budget passed, and all the infighting around it kind of is very intense over spending limits and assault deductions and all the rest of it, and no tax on tip. But as they get those things through the finish line, to sit there and try to go to middle class voters, working class voters and say and senior citizens and say, look what we delivered for you, Please reelect us give us the House majority again, which is on the tipping point a number of polls. He needs not to seem like an essential threat. He needs people to be liking the job that he's doing, and right now they are, so this is a big win for him. The other thing that I wanted to talk about there was another poll that didn't get any publicity whatsoever that I thought was very interesting. It came out of Siena College. Sana College is a college in upstate New York. Never been there, but they do work with The New York Times a lot during the presidential cycles. They're considered a very accurate polster. I think they have got an A rating by most analysts. They produced a report on the election coming up for governor that wasn't very interesting. But in the election underneath, the election of vote them was all primary stuff. So Stephanic versus Lawlor for the Republican side and Kathy Helkel for the election. None of it was interesting. The interesting thing, though, was when and they asked them, as the New Yorkers, how they feel on several issues. Right, so like New Yorkers still hate congestion pricing, that didn't change. But the issues that were very interesting was this. They asked New York State residents right, New York State, Liberal Democratic state New York State residents if the state government under Governor Kathy Hochel should be assisting the Trump administration in deporting illegal immigrants. A plurality of New Yorkers said yes. Forty five percent of New Yorkers said that the state of New York under Governor Kathy Hochel should be working with Donald Trump to deport illegal immigrants. Thirty eight percent said no, they shouldn't. Twelve percent said they were somewhere in the middle, they didn't know how they felt about it. The interesting thing was not only was it basically universally yes among Republicans, twenty five percent of Democrats said they should be working with Trump to deported league immigrants, and a majority of Independence fifty one percent of Independence said yes. Other groups that had a huge number men fifty percent, not shocking, but women women were forty one forty three. They were evenly split, which says a lot. They also had almost majority of Union members. They had forty percent of residents of New York City. New York City I think went thirty percent for Trump, so ten points more than voted for him wanted his deportation to happen. Fifty percent of white residents, twenty seven percent of blacks, and among Hispanics it was tied. It was forty one forty three, which is tied in the marginal error, but forty one forty three said yes. Forty one percent of Latinos. This is once again wall two wall negative mainstream news coverage of the Maryland Man, of innocent people accidentally being arrested, of you know, and fear, and white liberals losing their mind each and every single day, and all the ethnic lobby coming out and sitting there and saying this is terrorism. This is I think. Governor Mike Waltz compared ICE agents to the Gestapo very very much, showing how much he supports law enforcement. Among Catholics in New York State, it was fifty four percent Jews. It was forty seven to forty two. They were one of the most liberal groups in New York, although the Hasidics and Orthodox are not. But the majority population though is pretty liberal. Protestants it was fifty five percent, fifty percent of middle income earners. That is wild. This is New York State. The other part, the other question that there was was would you see support a total outright ban on transgender students playing in any school and any girls' sport, transgender women being biological and playing in girl sports, a total ban in every school. Would you want the school districts to decide individually or would you want a total support like every school has to allow transgender, transgender girls biological men to play in girls sports. Right, this is what New York residents said. Forty six percent of New York residents wanted a full outright ban. They didn't want individual districts to decide. They wanted a straightforward ban, including a third of Democrats, fifty four percent of independence, fifty percent of men, forty four percent of women, which is the biggest plurality of that group of women. Right, A plurality of Democrats set a full outright ban. A third of Democrats that was higher than any other category, A third right, forty percent of people in New York City, which was the plurality of any of the other categories. Other groups, A majority of the people in the suburbs, a majority of the people in upstate, forty three percent of black residents. This was a majority of Catholics, a majority of Protestants, a plurality of Jews. I'm looking at the numbers right now. That is incredible in my mind. And here's why it is incredible. Those two questions in particular, New York State moved the most right of any state in the country in the last election. I have lived in New York basically my entire life. I know the state very well, I know residents very well. It is not that New York State is all of a sudden going to be a swing state, although I do believe it will continue to move several points to the right. If you look at all the other questions they asked about free lunches, about like more spending on social welfare policies, New Yorkers are overwhelmingly for it right. They have a left wing center left access to them that high lights why they vote so liberally. However, a big, big caveat is on these issues that people most associate with failed governance by the Democratic Party. Even twenty five to thirty percent of Democrats are willing to balk at them. A huge percentage of minorities are willing to sit there and say no. Catholics, who historically were very Democratic right, there's a lot of Hispanics in the Catholic Church in New York, but there's also a lot of ethnic Whites in the Catholic Church. New York Union members. These are people that should never be aligning with the Republican Party and on these issues that are the most identifiable with a single party and their governance. You have overwhelming numbers on the side of the Conservatives, which explains why these overall trends of working class, people, of middle class, people of some younger people of ethnic minorities are moving away from the Democratic Party even though the despite they probably agree with them on most economic issues. They feel uncomfortable with mass immigration, they feel uncomfortable with the illegal immigration, They feel uncomfortable with the transgender sports issue. There was another poll that came out earlier today. I'm recording this on Wednesday for the Thursday episode. It was from Wisconsin, and they asked would you support a full deportation of illegal immigrants? And sixty six percent said yes. This is after hyperbolic reactions from Democrats giving worst case scenarios over and over and over again, and yet Joe Biden so broke the back of the American people when it comes to the issue immigration. They do not care. The sympathy bank is completely empty. And there is something in our culture called how do I put this toxic empathy where you are to feel bad for someone who is doing you harm. That has been behind the main driver of many of our political decisions in our culture, which had been very bad for a very long time, and it was surrounding our immigration choices for a while, or allowing our immigration laws to be skirted for a while. That is completely run dry, so very interesting. If the Democratic Party continues to be associated with these bad governing policies, if they don't make an abrupt u turn like the Labor Party, as we mentioned in the last episode about what's going on in England right now, then I would expect places like New Jersey, California, and New York where these issues are front and center because Democrats refuse to change ways on it, to be moving more of their voters to the right. Maybe we'll make California or New York swing state. Maybe we'll make a few more distress competitive. It absolutely will be making New Jersey a swing state. And I think that's very interesting. There's one more data stuff that I want to talk about with you guys. It is a blockbuster. Not going to want to miss it. Stay tuned for these messages. All right, we are back. And the last thing that I wanted to bring up to you as far as the data goes, as far as my autistic my autistic marathon goes, is there is I know the election was like, you know, months and months ago, and everyone's kind of passed it. But there is three organizations that do post election reviews that are super insightful for describing and analyzing what actually happened, what actually went through. I mean, the exit polls came out, but like the exit polls are wrong most of the time. So there's three organizations. There's David Shore, who is, you know, very smart, but I think he's a liberal. I don't think he wants to be on with the Beeber guy, but who knows. I'm a big fan still. I think that he's a genius. His stuff came out a month ago. That's where I said that seventy five per according to his analysis, seventy five percent of eighteen to twenty one year old white men in this country voted for Trump. It was the large group that vote of a Trump of any demographic. That was his data that came in a few months ago. Then there's the Pew Research Center. It's coming out in a few weeks to months. I'm looking forward to that. I will talk about that. I know everyone will be done with it by that point, but I will talk about it because I can't get enough and then the last is an organization called Catalyst. Now they have been doing this since twenty twelve and they are out with their report. It came out on Monday. It is a blockbuster and it breaks apart a lot of what Democrats have excused for Kamala Harris's loss. So there's six points I want to go through. The first being Democrats said that they had a turnout problem. Right, you hear this over and over and over again. Oh, if Omar Billigs turned out, they would have he would have won. He would have won. Sure, So that was incorrect. What the Catalyst information says is that not only was turnout, yes, turnout was lower nationwide, but turnout was higher in the swing states. So he they you have the turnoff that they wanted in swing states. The swing state participation rate was over seventy percent, which was higher than the sixty four percent nationwide. So there was this excessive higher amount of turnout in places like Georgia and Arizona and Nevada where they wanted to have massive turnout. They got there, but it didn't matter because Trump had won over persuasion. People wanted him because they were persuaded to vote for him and they were not persuaded to vote for Kamalo. Secondly, turnout wasn't the same everywhere. This is something that Democrats are right about, but it's not super coherent. Turnout was down nationwide from twenty twenty to twenty twenty four, right, but it wasn't even across the board. Among white voters, it was down one percent. Among blacks, it was down five point six percent, among Latinos three percent, and among Asians six point seven percent. When you go into the Swing States, however, black turnout was down one point six percent, among black men two percent. Now, I want you to go back to old media interviews in your head if you remember them. Like there's Van Jones who was on CNN with a few times and he was a very nice person. I'm not behind the scenes, gentlemen, but he would say all the time that there is this push to get black men to support kamal law, to get the first woman across the finish line. The Charlemagne, the God did the same exact thing. They were all sitting there and saying there's this push to get black man. We're gonna get black men, We're gonna get black men. Didn't get black men In fact, in swing states, even where they did the souls, the polls everything, black male participation dropped two percent, But guess what black female participation dropped as well. Black female participation dropped by one percent in swing states. Now, aside from Wisconsin, one percent wouldn't have made up the difference. I don't e think what blackmen make up ten percent to make one percent, So it doesn't really matter. Black women weren't that interested in Kamala either. The narrative that Black Americans were not sold on Kammala as like being a brown a glass of shatterer, the same way they were over Obama. Let's say it's true Trump mentioned it, was called a racist for it, but even like Janet Jackson was saying it, people were saying it all over the all over that there was a large percentage of Black America who were not sold that she was part of their community and they were not needing to go vote for her. White support was up one point five percent, but it was mostly driven by white women. White women did show up in big numbers, it was up for white men as well. Latinos showed up and increased numbers as well. Okay, that's that's that's important. Second point of the entire thing, the racial breakdown, because the white number had decreased the lowest amount nationwide and increased the highest in swing states, was unchanged from twenty twenty. Now there's this constant notion that, oh, you know, whites are decreasing in every electorate. Didn't happen in twenty twenty. It didn't happen in twenty sixteen, Monch either. It was basically the same in twenty sixteen, but it'd not been in twenty twenty four. But the one thing that did happen with the racial and an education breakdown that is extremely important is for the very first time ever as far as I can go back, and this is especially of the Catalyst research, non college educated whites were no longer the largest voting block in the Democratic coalition. They have been surpassed by college educated whites. Believe it or not, even though the spokespeople for the Democratic Party absolutely hate non college educated white people and trash talk them constantly. They were still about a third of all Kamala voters, but they were almost forty percent. They were thirty seven percent of all guidance supporters versus twenty four percent sorry Biden Obama twenty twelve, they were almost They were thirty seven percent of all Obama voters and only thirty one percent of all Comma voters. Kamala and the Democratic Party, because of their aggressive attacks against working class white people, have sheed twenty percent of their non college educated white voting base, twenty percent of the largest single demographic in the country. So while they increase their numbers among college educated whites and lost a lot of non college educated whites, they've also lost a lot of black support over time because of declining participation rates, especially going back to Obama. And they're stagnant with the Latinos because as even the Latinos are growing in population, they are not increasing their size and support for the Democratic Party. It's gotten done significantly since Obama. One other caveat that I thought was really really interesting, twenty percent of people who voted for Trump were non white. That is the biggest single Republican candidacy ever as far as a minority constituency, one in five. That's never happened before, not even for George W. Bush. It is it is the multi racial working class that a lot of people have sat there and talked about okay. Third point, there is this big notion that like, white women are the end of the world, and they're all Karens. This is an ocean among like the right, it's all white women who are you know, the ones pushing all the progressive agenda and they are pushing the Democratic Party to the left. White women, however, voted more for Trump in this election than they voted for him in the last election. Trump won white women in this country. I fifty two to forty eight. We got the catalyst, probably gets rid of all the third party things, so they make it even fifty to fifty fifty two forty eight. Among college educated white women, Trump actually improved by one point from twenty twenty. He actually did better among college educated white women. After I don't know how many times I was on the CNN panel hearing about fascism and abortion rights and abortion rights and abortion rights and these were going to move all these women over. He did one point better. All of that rhetoric was nonsense. All of that rhetoric was complete and total nonsense. Among white men. Among white men without a college degree, Harris only got thirty percent of the vote. Now think about it, white men are white people are about sixty percent of the country. White men are thirty percent White to a college degree of twenty percent is the single largest block. Maybe white women without a college degree are also similar, but a twenty percent one in five voters. They've lost twenty percent of their support, more than twenty percent of their support with that voting base since twenty twelve, super significant in the white vote and why the white vote has The white vote has been basically flat though for the last couple of election cycles, at forty two percent support for demrik Rats. And that is because college college educated whites have typically been moving to the left, although in this last election they moved to the right. White men with a college degree moved six points to the right. I know, I'm three on a lot of numbers. I will try to rein it back and get back to the narrative. Okay, minority men, this is where the popular vote win happened, right, It wasn't just I mean, making a Republican president is like baking a cake. The batter is the white vote. You can't win with if you don't get large sport with the white vote. The minority vote is the cream filling the the I don't know what are you put on a cake? Everything, all the trimmings is the minority vote. You can have a cake, but you can't have the trimmings about the minority vote. Okay, So that's the popular vote win. Among black men, ninety five percent of whom voted for Barack Obama, almost one hundred percent universe. So ninety percent of Black men vote for Barack Obama. Nine percent voted for Kamala Harris inde nine percent. Among battleground Black voters it was eighty four. So they did do a better job in the battlegrounds where they spent more resources. But in the nation as a whole, seventy nine percent. If it's seventy nine percent, nation went as a whole, and you were taking out place like Georgia and North Carolina, in other places like Mississippi, Alabama, probably Texas as a decent black population. You're talking about, you know, New York. It's probably you know, maybe a third. Trump probably got a third of the black vote. If you take out that portion among black women, that vote was stagnant, That vote is very hardly cemented. It was ninety percent of the Black women voted for Trump this time ninety percent voted last time. Maybe he went maybe one by half a point or less than half a point, but it wasn't significant. Black men, though, it is a gigantic drop ninety five to seventy nine among black women from twenty twelve overs it's a seven point drop, but among black men sixteen points. It is substantial. Among black men under the age of thirty, it's seventy five percent. One in four Black men under the age of thirty voted for Donald Trump. That is not a small, insignificant, minor group of people. That is not a tiny fraction of a coalition. That's one in four of the Democratic Party's base. Among Black women under thirty, it was eighty eight percent. So it was so younger black people in general, but mostly younger Black men, one in four versus go back twenty years ago, go back ten years ago to Barack Obama, it was like one in twenty five, we're voting four for the Republican. Now it's one in four. This is a crazy, crazy, crazy shift. Okay, go to latinos now, because this is wild. Trump won. This is the second time that has been confirmed. But this is this proves it, This proves it to be true. Trump won Latino men. I think George W. Bush may have won it, but the exit polling was really really bad at the time, so you can't really trust it. But Trump won Latino men by six points. That is insane. He only lost the over all Latino vote by eight. This is a group. Once again. Hillary won them by forty in the overall head to head according to catalysts, she won them seventy thirty. Harris won them fifty four to forty six. And the craziest thing was they asked them across the ages. They said, among ages, right, how old are you? How are you voting? Among the ages, young Latinos, millennial Latinos, zoomer Latinos, fifty seven percent voted for Harris. It dips down to fifty two or Gen xers and early boomers, and then goes back up to fifty seven. When you get to late Jane, sorry, late boomers and silent generation. So old Latinos and young Latinos at fifty seven all the middle of fifty two. What does that show you? That shows you that the reconfiguration, the realignment of minorities is universal. Now, this isn't true for black voters. Black voters. There is a substantial drop when you get younger, right, you go to older Black voters, it's still over ninety percent. They're immovable. The only way Republicans will win those voters they can't. I'm just gonna say something else, but they can't. Those voters will be Democrats of the day they die. It is the all. It is their natural born inheritance. There is no moving older Black voters. We can just give up on trying to whoever we have is all we're going to have. Of the older group, But the younger group, it's like a thirteen point overall drop when you include men and women, right, Latinos, it's across the board. The only group that is getting substantially more democratic as the younger are Asians. And I want to it to Asians. In one second, among Asians still democratic support for among Asians among for Barack Obama twenty twelve, seventy one percent, support for Kamala Harris twenty twenty four fifty five percent, another sixteen point drop. This is a male revolution, it's a male driven revolution. So those are the important things that it's the racial breakdown I think is very important. It does substantiate shores earlier conversation. It's substantially is what we thought that this was a male dominated movement and that the women are moving. But it is. But you have to go with the context of it's not all white women. In fact, the majority of white women's still voter for Republicans, stale voter for Donald Trump, and there is increased support among non white women who are not black. Black women are just immovable in college educated women, college educated white women right. Other still moved towards Trump, although they gave the majority of their support to Kamala Harris let's I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna land this plane very soon. I promised, stick with me if you're still with me. Right. They gave a demographic a demographic breakdown the only group two point two things one for the first time in my lifetime, first time Catalysts ever seen this. Not my lifetime, I'm kind of old now, but first time the Catalyst has reported this. Publicans won non college educated voters by double digits, first time ever. Right, huge among non college educated whites. Overall, they won them by twenty eight points. That's the same number he won them by in twenty sixteen. This is a general movement among a cementing of that base, non college educated white voters that you have to have to have to hear this point. It is so essential on college educated white voters were the only group in America demographically, education and race base right to give a majority of their support for Donald Trump. College educated whites didn't, Blacks didn't of any college education, Latinos didn't, Asians didn't, others didn't. It was solely, solely based on the vote of the non college educated white that gave a majority of their support to Donald Trump. I say that not because I want to emphasize that one group is better than the other or more loyal than the other. I want to say that because when we have conversations around what can the Republican Party do more for black voters or Latino voters, or this group or that group, or women or whatnot, I think it's very important to understand and to remind ourselves who is bringing home the votes to get a Republican elected. It is non college educated white voters. What is the Trump administration? What are Republicans? Congressional Republicans are they? What are the Republican governors? What are they doing for them? For all the analysts dribble, we have to hear constantly about what are we doing to sit there and shed one percentage more among black women? What are we doing to deliver support for our voters, whether that be tax cuts, whether that be opioid relief because their population has been deficit with the opioid effect, pro family stuff. What are we doing for those voters on all those issues? That should be the question Republicans should take from this as Wow, these are the only will give us a majority support? What are we doing for them? Has to be emphasized. Okay, landing the plane once again, back to the age range thing. Kamala Harris lost support among every single age range in the country. I had said this a while ago, that these polls were coming out New York Times, Sienna, especially where Harris seniors by like twenty points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and she was going to win the senior vote. The number of polls that said she was going to win the senior vote were were out of control. They were out of control. They were completely insane, and I didn't believe it for a second. Turns out it wasn't true. Senior citizens voted majority for Trump and actually increased their support for Donald Trump among Trump also won every age range of white voters. White voters between the age of eighteen to twenty nine voted for Trump by two points. This was a group that voted for Joe Biden. They had moved eight points to the right for Donald Trump. This is once again it goes back to what the David Shore was saying, where he said young people under twenty one who had lived during the worst of COVID were the most radical right wing. So maybe he was onto something right there. Double digit support and swing for Trump came from every bracket of Latino voters, over twenty points among young Latinos, double digits among Black voters under the age of forty five, and and a twenty point margin a twenty point swaying towards Trump among Asians in that category. That's also very important and why it's important one is seniors are changing, right people. People have come up to me a lot and say, what's going on with the senior But why are seniors becoming more liberal? They are not becoming more liberal. The seniors you have in your head as seniors are probably like your grandparents, or their friends who may or may not have passed away, right and increased likelihood. That's what comes with the age. It's sad. I'm not wishing anything, but that is what the truth is. Archie Bunker has passed away. Meathead is a senior. Henry Fonder Fonda has passed away. Jane Fonda is a senior. The liberal baby boomers are in their seventies and eighties, the greatest generation, the people who worked for Richard Nixon, the people who worked against the counter culturalists, the ones that you probably were seniors in your mind in the early two thousands, if you were like me, you're a millennial, and you know you watch little giants growing up. Those people, the World War II veterans that you see in the stands who are rooting on the pee football team, they're almost all gone. And it's the liberals who were middle aged at the time who are part of the counterculture that are like of the Joe Biden's era, or a little young or a little older, who are the ones who are seniors now. Nonetheless, and yet still they didn't know for a majority for Kamala Harris, which was a narrative the media was pushing endlessly. It's a narrative David Shup push which I disagreed with his data. I agree with the Kittle Catalyst data. Those are the narratives worth dispelling, worth breaking down. I had to go into it. I know that was long winded. I know that that was probably a lot for people to listen to. But thank you for hearing all the numbers because it's a numbers game. Okay, So this is the part of the podcast where I talk about I do you know questions I asked me anything segment? Ryant Email me Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com, Ryan at Numbers Plural, Numbers gamepodcast dot com. You can tweet me. I'm gonna put a pin tweet where I'll take questions from Twitter. If you no one can take the time to email me, It's fine you guys send me questions. I love to answer them on literally anything. That's what I usually do. But this week I came across a piece of gossip that I have to tell you guys about. I haven't tweeted this, I haven't talked about it. I'm saving it specifically for you. It's about a member of Congress. It is some of the wildest stories I've ever heard it is George Santos on steroids. I'll be back with it after these messages. Okay, we are back for the final segment, which is usually where I ask take questions, and I want your questions. Email me Ryan at numbers Game dot com right Ryan at numbers Game podcast dot com. Sorry by that, guys. Okay, so there is a Republican member of Congress. Stories are in the works right now, so I don't want to burst anyone's but some have been published already. This is a member of Congress. I'm not going to say the name because it's going to come out publicly, but I will give you an offense where if you're in the know, you will know. This is somebody who was a police had shown up at his house because he was having a domestic with his girlfriend, even though at the time he had said he was married to another woman. This is a person who has said that he has over exaggerated his military service to the point where it could be possibly considered stolen valor if you're in the military. I'm not so I don't know what the record says for that are, but I've heard people in the military say it's the degree that it's stolen valor. I have heard, and I'm going to get the journalist on here who's been working on it. I have heard his dealings, his business dealings, or to the millions and millions of dollars of debt, millions of dollars of debt, that it's extremely shady and I'm not sure if the debtors, the people who are lending money are even American. This is somebody who has been trying to sleep with every single conservative influencer woman in the business, saying repeated lies over and over and over again. And then this was the craziest thing. Multiple of these women told me that he was trying to convert them to Islam. Now, this is not a reported Muslim. This is somebody who says that he's a Christian, who where is his religion on his sleeve? Stories had emerged that he was married by a very prominent in mom in a mosque by the unindicted co conspirator of the nineteen ninety three World Trades utder bombing, that all of his business dealings are extraordinarily shady and weird, that his military record is completely and totally f acated, if not fabricated, over exaggerated, and there are multiple women speaking constantly with each other that he has created lies about the state of one his marriage where he says he's divorced when he's when he wasn't at the time, or maybe now he's divorced, but he wasn't at the time. And then once he gets in these relationships with them, these precarious relationships, they find themselves in position where they feel like they are threatened, and he spends time to sit there and say, I think the exact quotes that he was saying to them is how Islam and Christianity were close to the same thing, even though I'm not a religious scholar, but I know that much they're not. And he was married by the nineteen ninety three World Trade Center conspirat, a co conspirator. I am going to give it to the journalist. I'm going to invite him up. When this story is up, and there's a woman to who's doing another story on this, I'm going to write them both to talk about this. I know this is not typically a numbers game. It is the craziest, most salacious, most interesting news story about a person. If Donald Trump was not an office right now. This would be the front page of every single newspaper. This would be George Sando's on crack. But you know the media can only focus on Trump. That is my dog snoring, by the way, Smory about that. That's that little yelp that you hear. That's not me. It is a wild story. Not many people are covering it. I'm going to when this comes out because people's heads are going to explode. It is crazy. That's my little piece of gossip. Send me your messages Ryan at numbers gamepodcast dot com. Please like and subscribe to this podcast and iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, wherever podcasts are we ever give your podcast. I have some incredible guests coming up next week and the week after. You will not want to miss it. Please like and subscribe, give me a five star review if you're feeling generous, and I will see you guys next week