Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodski. Thank you for being here this week. As always, I'm one of my listeners that all the data on this podcast will be up on my substack and go read it and go to nappopnewsletter dot com for thirty day free subscription. So this week I would like to talk to you guys about money in politics and politics in general. It's a big conversation that we've had in the country because it costs a lot of money to run for public office. In the twenty one months the church along twenty twenty three to the twenty twenty four campaign cycle, billions of dollars run to the campaigns from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Cannot's running for president alone, just the presidency raised one point six two six billion dollars and spent one point three two three billion. But that's not all. Cants running for Congress raised three point two seven billion dollars and spent two point seven seven billion. Party committees raised two points one billion and spent one point eight and super packs raised twelve point twenty five billion and spent ten point nine billion. All together. That means candidates and their respected committees and packs running for federal office raised nineteen point twenty five billion and spent sixteen point seven nine to three billion dollars. Now that sounds like an insane number, and it is, but it's actually less than Americans spent on Easter. Americans spent twenty point billion dollars on Easter. But still a lot of money. And it's just for federalists, not including the local races, the governors that happened in twenty twenty four, the mayors, the city councils, of the school boards, the state legislatures which are a lot more. But it's still a lot of money, and it's only going to go up over time, especially people moving money to super PACs, which are allowed to raise unlimited sums of money. Fundraising for presidential committees actually hasn't gone up so much. In two thousand and eight, that's when all the candidates running for president in both the primary and the general and third parties raised one point six billion dollars. Swell money in politics is very intimidating to a lot of people who want to run for office, even local office. They get scared. It's one of the most frequently asked questions I get from people who are curious about politics or the dream of running for office, or just working in this career. People have a lot of opinions about people who work in politics. Some are fair and some aren't, but they want to know more about the business side of politics. So that's what this episode is going to be about. Now, a little backsurround me. I've worked in politics since two thousand and seven. My first job, when I was nineteen, was working for the New York City Council. I worked for a councilwoman who was a friend of a great aunt of mine. She was one of those aunts who thought I was brilliant at everything, even when I wasn't. And the councilwoman had called her and said that her PR guy had died unexpectedly, and she said, well, you have to hire my nineteen year old nephew. He's so great at everything. So thank you Ann Susie. That nepotism changed my life. And then I worked odd jobs on different campaigns I worked. I ended up being an intern for the New York State Senator Tom Libis, who was the deputy Minority leader at the time, A wonderful man. I learned a lot from him. Sale died a couple of years ago in prison. But actually my first two big political mentors both went to jail. It was a very New York story. I worked for as a low level stabber for Michael Bloomberg's third mayoral campaign. I worked for lots of local races, and in twenty ten, I wanted to get a job working on a race I could really prove myself. And I'd heard a man named Bob Turner wanted to run for office against Anthony Meaner, and so I said to myself, I have to find him. I have to sit there and apply for this job. Somehow, I didn't have the experience. I didn't know what he even looked like, but I had heard he was going to the New York State Party convention. I told people in the crowd that I knew a little bit. I was like twenty two years all at the time. I said, you know, oh, I'm looking for Bob. Do you know where he is? And then one person pointed him out. I approached him cold and I said, my name is Ryan Grodski. I know this district by the back of my hand. I would like to work for your campaign. Sold myself and within like maybe thirty minutes, he introduced me as his feel director for his campaign, so it was very exciting. He didn't end up winning the election, but he did so well. You get over forty percent against Anthony Minor, who was an entrenched incumbent in a very democratic district. That when Anthony Minor left office like a couple months later and there was a special election, Bob was picked as the party nominee, and he was the first Republican outside of Staten Island to hold a seat in New York City in several decades. So it was a lot to prove myself and be proud of myself. Were but that's like the nature of politics in this business is a lot of times if you're trying to break into it to work in it, the best case scenario is a major consultant or an elected official will tell you you're my guy or you're my girl, and they'll take you under their wings, and then you could eventually branch off after working them and meeting all their contacts and all the rest of that. That's what happened to like the Ruthless Guys similar Ruthless Guys on that podcast that they worked for McConnell. Being someone's guy or someone's girl has a lot of benefits. The other way of coming up is by just working every job possible that is given to you. So after Turner, I did a race for an upstart libertary named Thomas Massey. I did his super pac, took a break, did media gigs for a couple of years. I ended up working for James o'keeff for a little while, which is another story for a different time. I'm we're older. I ran the super Pact for Chris Cobac when he ran for Senate by just pitching one of his donors cold. The first time I met him, I said, I want to I want to run this guy's super pac. I know you're supporting him. Fund the super Pack and bring me on. And he did. And then through Twitter I met a guy named Jadevance and when the Senate s he'd opened in Ohio in twenty twenty one, I texted him. I said, if you're running, I want to be on your team. And then two years later Our Star packed for school board elections nationwide at the seventeen seventy six Project Pack, which is almost entirely funded by small dollar donors. It's the most successful local government super pac right now in the country. And that's how I kind of broke into this business. And I say the whole story about my life because working in politics is about taking chances. I failed a ton of times. I've worked on insane races that we never had a chance, that things everything that could go wrong did go wrong, where I would have to stay afterwards and clean the bathroom. And well, I saw all the phones, volunteers made phone calls on I mean I did it all. I knocked on doors, I got petitions, every kind of odd job because no one said Ryan, you're my guy. Like that never happened in my entire life. People said, oh, Ryan's the last person here, let's give him a break. I've was constantly the last person picked for political dodgeball, but I just kept ongoing and I still do today. It's just about trying to open a door until someone lets you in. So last week I sent out a tweet and I asked people who don't work in policies what questions they had, what they wanted to show with the business, and what they want to know from consultants about what it's like to run for office, run a race, run a campaign, and if they aspire on for office one day, what they should do. So I got my smartest consultant friend, and we're going to answer them now. Luke Thompson is one of my closest political operative friends. He is a stellar track record of the last few year years working for the super Packs for many people including Representative Riley Moore, Representative Brandon Gill, Senator Bernie Marino, Senator Dave McCormick. And he was my boss for the super Pac supporting jd Vance. I have to Nudgeman said, he also worked for Jeb Bush. But Luke Thompson, thank you for being here.

Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodski. Thank you for being here this week. As always, I'm one of my listeners that all the data on this podcast will be up on my substack and go read it and go to nappopnewsletter dot com for thirty day free subscription. So this week I would like to talk to you guys about money in politics and politics in general. It's a big conversation that we've had in the country because it costs a lot of money to run for public office. In the twenty one months the church along twenty twenty three to the twenty twenty four campaign cycle, billions of dollars run to the campaigns from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Cannot's running for president alone, just the presidency raised one point six two six billion dollars and spent one point three two three billion. But that's not all. Cants running for Congress raised three point two seven billion dollars and spent two point seven seven billion. Party committees raised two points one billion and spent one point eight and super packs raised twelve point twenty five billion and spent ten point nine billion. All together. That means candidates and their respected committees and packs running for federal office raised nineteen point twenty five billion and spent sixteen point seven nine to three billion dollars. Now that sounds like an insane number, and it is, but it's actually less than Americans spent on Easter. Americans spent twenty point billion dollars on Easter. But still a lot of money. And it's just for federalists, not including the local races, the governors that happened in twenty twenty four, the mayors, the city councils, of the school boards, the state legislatures which are a lot more. But it's still a lot of money, and it's only going to go up over time, especially people moving money to super PACs, which are allowed to raise unlimited sums of money. Fundraising for presidential committees actually hasn't gone up so much. In two thousand and eight, that's when all the candidates running for president in both the primary and the general and third parties raised one point six billion dollars. Swell money in politics is very intimidating to a lot of people who want to run for office, even local office. They get scared. It's one of the most frequently asked questions I get from people who are curious about politics or the dream of running for office, or just working in this career. People have a lot of opinions about people who work in politics. Some are fair and some aren't, but they want to know more about the business side of politics. So that's what this episode is going to be about. Now, a little backsurround me. I've worked in politics since two thousand and seven. My first job, when I was nineteen, was working for the New York City Council. I worked for a councilwoman who was a friend of a great aunt of mine. She was one of those aunts who thought I was brilliant at everything, even when I wasn't. And the councilwoman had called her and said that her PR guy had died unexpectedly, and she said, well, you have to hire my nineteen year old nephew. He's so great at everything. So thank you Ann Susie. That nepotism changed my life. And then I worked odd jobs on different campaigns I worked. I ended up being an intern for the New York State Senator Tom Libis, who was the deputy Minority leader at the time, A wonderful man. I learned a lot from him. Sale died a couple of years ago in prison. But actually my first two big political mentors both went to jail. It was a very New York story. I worked for as a low level stabber for Michael Bloomberg's third mayoral campaign. I worked for lots of local races, and in twenty ten, I wanted to get a job working on a race I could really prove myself. And I'd heard a man named Bob Turner wanted to run for office against Anthony Meaner, and so I said to myself, I have to find him. I have to sit there and apply for this job. Somehow, I didn't have the experience. I didn't know what he even looked like, but I had heard he was going to the New York State Party convention. I told people in the crowd that I knew a little bit. I was like twenty two years all at the time. I said, you know, oh, I'm looking for Bob. Do you know where he is? And then one person pointed him out. I approached him cold and I said, my name is Ryan Grodski. I know this district by the back of my hand. I would like to work for your campaign. Sold myself and within like maybe thirty minutes, he introduced me as his feel director for his campaign, so it was very exciting. He didn't end up winning the election, but he did so well. You get over forty percent against Anthony Minor, who was an entrenched incumbent in a very democratic district. That when Anthony Minor left office like a couple months later and there was a special election, Bob was picked as the party nominee, and he was the first Republican outside of Staten Island to hold a seat in New York City in several decades. So it was a lot to prove myself and be proud of myself. Were but that's like the nature of politics in this business is a lot of times if you're trying to break into it to work in it, the best case scenario is a major consultant or an elected official will tell you you're my guy or you're my girl, and they'll take you under their wings, and then you could eventually branch off after working them and meeting all their contacts and all the rest of that. That's what happened to like the Ruthless Guys similar Ruthless Guys on that podcast that they worked for McConnell. Being someone's guy or someone's girl has a lot of benefits. The other way of coming up is by just working every job possible that is given to you. So after Turner, I did a race for an upstart libertary named Thomas Massey. I did his super pac, took a break, did media gigs for a couple of years. I ended up working for James o'keeff for a little while, which is another story for a different time. I'm we're older. I ran the super Pact for Chris Cobac when he ran for Senate by just pitching one of his donors cold. The first time I met him, I said, I want to I want to run this guy's super pac. I know you're supporting him. Fund the super Pack and bring me on. And he did. And then through Twitter I met a guy named Jadevance and when the Senate s he'd opened in Ohio in twenty twenty one, I texted him. I said, if you're running, I want to be on your team. And then two years later Our Star packed for school board elections nationwide at the seventeen seventy six Project Pack, which is almost entirely funded by small dollar donors. It's the most successful local government super pac right now in the country. And that's how I kind of broke into this business. And I say the whole story about my life because working in politics is about taking chances. I failed a ton of times. I've worked on insane races that we never had a chance, that things everything that could go wrong did go wrong, where I would have to stay afterwards and clean the bathroom. And well, I saw all the phones, volunteers made phone calls on I mean I did it all. I knocked on doors, I got petitions, every kind of odd job because no one said Ryan, you're my guy. Like that never happened in my entire life. People said, oh, Ryan's the last person here, let's give him a break. I've was constantly the last person picked for political dodgeball, but I just kept ongoing and I still do today. It's just about trying to open a door until someone lets you in. So last week I sent out a tweet and I asked people who don't work in policies what questions they had, what they wanted to show with the business, and what they want to know from consultants about what it's like to run for office, run a race, run a campaign, and if they aspire on for office one day, what they should do. So I got my smartest consultant friend, and we're going to answer them now. Luke Thompson is one of my closest political operative friends. He is a stellar track record of the last few year years working for the super Packs for many people including Representative Riley Moore, Representative Brandon Gill, Senator Bernie Marino, Senator Dave McCormick. And he was my boss for the super Pac supporting jd Vance. I have to Nudgeman said, he also worked for Jeb Bush. But Luke Thompson, thank you for being here.

Great to be with you. Ryan. We we should get together more often.

Great to be with you. Ryan. We we should get together more often.

Luke, I don't actually know what was your first campaign.

Luke, I don't actually know what was your first campaign.

My first campaign I was, I want to say, seven years old. It would attempt to pass a bond issue in my hometown to build a second high school because we had far outgrown the old high school. But we lost. My parents were pro mil Levy increase, I think the only tax I've ever seen them be in favor of, because literally the students were going to class in trailers in the freezing cold.

My first campaign I was, I want to say, seven years old. It would attempt to pass a bond issue in my hometown to build a second high school because we had far outgrown the old high school. But we lost. My parents were pro mil Levy increase, I think the only tax I've ever seen them be in favor of, because literally the students were going to class in trailers in the freezing cold.

This uh y. So you were bred from this like there was, there was no second choice.

This uh y. So you were bred from this like there was, there was no second choice.

It's in the blood.

It's in the blood.

Yeah. Okay. So I took questions from people on social media and I'm going to ask them. We'll just talk, you know, back and forth. So the first question we got, which is the most frequent question I got, was how much money does it cost to run for office? Even a local one?

Yeah. Okay. So I took questions from people on social media and I'm going to ask them. We'll just talk, you know, back and forth. So the first question we got, which is the most frequent question I got, was how much money does it cost to run for office? Even a local one?

And great question.

And great question.

Yeah, I'll say this. It costs as much as it does to reach all the voters in your target universe. So if you're running for local office like city councilor school board or even congress or state representative, you have not everyone votes, a small select people actually go and vote. The bigger the election, the more will vote, but you have to spend as much money as it costs to reach them. The rule I was always taught is you had to touch a voter seven times. I doesn't mean to speak to them seven times. It means if we see a mailer to just see your name and newspapers to make sure a voter remembers who you are, they have to see your name seven different times.

Yeah, I'll say this. It costs as much as it does to reach all the voters in your target universe. So if you're running for local office like city councilor school board or even congress or state representative, you have not everyone votes, a small select people actually go and vote. The bigger the election, the more will vote, but you have to spend as much money as it costs to reach them. The rule I was always taught is you had to touch a voter seven times. I doesn't mean to speak to them seven times. It means if we see a mailer to just see your name and newspapers to make sure a voter remembers who you are, they have to see your name seven different times.

Yeah. I mean, there's a lot of rules of thumb out there about this, but I think another way to think about it too, because a lot of people who ask these questions are thinking about running themselves. Don't know what mental illness takes them over and makes them want to run for aufit. I'm grateful that it exists because, yeah, make my living off of it. Yeah. But you know, one other way to think about it too is like how much money do you, as a candidate have to put in or be able to put in to be a credible candidate? And you know what's interesting about that is, at a certain population level, everybody max is or should if you're going to be a serious candidate, max is out the one resource that everyone has under a sort of universal communism, which is the clock. Like everybody has the same amount of time per day, whether or not you use it all for politics or you have a personal life or things like that, those are separate considerations. But you and your opponent, you know, at midnight of a given day, will have the same amount of time, and how you use this up to you. However, even at the state legislative level, some state house races in smaller states, you can just out hustle your opponent right in a lot of places. Once you're even at the state senate level. It's not possible to simply knock on every single door enough times that everybody who might vote knows you and has formed an opinion of you. And so that's where money really enters. The equation is you have to be able to talk to people by proxy or through surrogate. The most primary surrogate mechanism is media. Lower down, you're typically going to be, you know, having volunteers have literature to leave it doors. Sometimes those are the exact same thing that you mail. To save money, you're going to want to get some phone banks. You might want to get an office space or even a like in a coworking space. You might want to have a spot to drop things or a you know, a storage unit. As you get a higher and higher up, you know, say you want to run for congress. Now you're talking about you will have a full time staffer or several full time staffers, depending on the district you will need. You may use your family car for everything. You may want to lease a car for the term of your your race because you're not going to be the only person driving it. Probably or in fact, ideally, you won't be driving at all because you'll be on the phone calling who donors. Mostly the sort of rule of thumb that I have for people as they think about running for congressional district. Right, assume it's an open seat. Assume it's you know, set aside whether or not from a party standpoint, you you know you can win. Right. What I say is, go home, go through your phone book, go through your email, go through your classmates, et cetera. Make a list of people who if they give you the maximum that you can donate thirty five hundred dollars right where you can get for three hundred. That's for Congress or any federal office. Actually, where you can get three hundred of those people, because the reality is is you're going to think you're going to close. I'll close ninety percent of them. You're going to be lucky if you can close twenty five percent of right, Right, And so you need to have a list of three hundred people who you feel high degrees of congresence, not one hundred percent, but seventy five percent or better. They'll cut you a three thousand, five hundred dollars check. If you can't do that or you don't know that many people with that kind of disposable income. The reality is it's going to be really really hard. Now you can compensate for that by use it, putting your personal means in play. But now you're talking about, well, how much do I want to spend? How liquid am I what percentage of that liquidity do I want to spend? I have two kids. My kids I would like to go to nice school someday, and so you know, I got to pay for that. Also, they might need braces. I got to pay for that too, right, And so you know, those are the kinds of ways people should think about this and have really hard conversations, because if you can't raise from your network, a solid doesn't have to be mid six figures, but a solid six figure chunk, right, you know, quarter million dollars between what you know of people you call, or if you're not able to cut a check that's bigger than that, you're really going to have hard time hitting this sort of level of seriousness that's necessary. Now. The good news is, as you go through politics, you will meet people and they will give your work. Of people, you'll be connected, some of those people with donors, some will be affected interest groups, et cetera. And so you can start knocking doors and work your way up. Riley Moore friend and client of mine who you mentioned. You know I ran his congressional campaign in this cycle, the first thing I did for Riley. We were friends before he entered politics. In twenty sixteen, he sent me an email saying, Hey, I want to run for House Delegates in West Virginia. I've got you know, there's going to be five thousand voters. Here's the voter file. Can you tell me which doors to knock on and which phone owners to call? Did a little bit of math and set it back to him. He worked that list like crazy, and it wasn't a money question that got him that election. He won it by about one hundred and fifty votes, I think, and maybe misrememory it may have been a little bigger than that, but you know, it's not a huge margin, and it was a hustle margin. Right now, he's a member of House leadership as a freshman. So you can build it on a foundation of hard work, but it's a building block over time.

Yeah. I mean, there's a lot of rules of thumb out there about this, but I think another way to think about it too, because a lot of people who ask these questions are thinking about running themselves. Don't know what mental illness takes them over and makes them want to run for aufit. I'm grateful that it exists because, yeah, make my living off of it. Yeah. But you know, one other way to think about it too is like how much money do you, as a candidate have to put in or be able to put in to be a credible candidate? And you know what's interesting about that is, at a certain population level, everybody max is or should if you're going to be a serious candidate, max is out the one resource that everyone has under a sort of universal communism, which is the clock. Like everybody has the same amount of time per day, whether or not you use it all for politics or you have a personal life or things like that, those are separate considerations. But you and your opponent, you know, at midnight of a given day, will have the same amount of time, and how you use this up to you. However, even at the state legislative level, some state house races in smaller states, you can just out hustle your opponent right in a lot of places. Once you're even at the state senate level. It's not possible to simply knock on every single door enough times that everybody who might vote knows you and has formed an opinion of you. And so that's where money really enters. The equation is you have to be able to talk to people by proxy or through surrogate. The most primary surrogate mechanism is media. Lower down, you're typically going to be, you know, having volunteers have literature to leave it doors. Sometimes those are the exact same thing that you mail. To save money, you're going to want to get some phone banks. You might want to get an office space or even a like in a coworking space. You might want to have a spot to drop things or a you know, a storage unit. As you get a higher and higher up, you know, say you want to run for congress. Now you're talking about you will have a full time staffer or several full time staffers, depending on the district you will need. You may use your family car for everything. You may want to lease a car for the term of your your race because you're not going to be the only person driving it. Probably or in fact, ideally, you won't be driving at all because you'll be on the phone calling who donors. Mostly the sort of rule of thumb that I have for people as they think about running for congressional district. Right, assume it's an open seat. Assume it's you know, set aside whether or not from a party standpoint, you you know you can win. Right. What I say is, go home, go through your phone book, go through your email, go through your classmates, et cetera. Make a list of people who if they give you the maximum that you can donate thirty five hundred dollars right where you can get for three hundred. That's for Congress or any federal office. Actually, where you can get three hundred of those people, because the reality is is you're going to think you're going to close. I'll close ninety percent of them. You're going to be lucky if you can close twenty five percent of right, Right, And so you need to have a list of three hundred people who you feel high degrees of congresence, not one hundred percent, but seventy five percent or better. They'll cut you a three thousand, five hundred dollars check. If you can't do that or you don't know that many people with that kind of disposable income. The reality is it's going to be really really hard. Now you can compensate for that by use it, putting your personal means in play. But now you're talking about, well, how much do I want to spend? How liquid am I what percentage of that liquidity do I want to spend? I have two kids. My kids I would like to go to nice school someday, and so you know, I got to pay for that. Also, they might need braces. I got to pay for that too, right, And so you know, those are the kinds of ways people should think about this and have really hard conversations, because if you can't raise from your network, a solid doesn't have to be mid six figures, but a solid six figure chunk, right, you know, quarter million dollars between what you know of people you call, or if you're not able to cut a check that's bigger than that, you're really going to have hard time hitting this sort of level of seriousness that's necessary. Now. The good news is, as you go through politics, you will meet people and they will give your work. Of people, you'll be connected, some of those people with donors, some will be affected interest groups, et cetera. And so you can start knocking doors and work your way up. Riley Moore friend and client of mine who you mentioned. You know I ran his congressional campaign in this cycle, the first thing I did for Riley. We were friends before he entered politics. In twenty sixteen, he sent me an email saying, Hey, I want to run for House Delegates in West Virginia. I've got you know, there's going to be five thousand voters. Here's the voter file. Can you tell me which doors to knock on and which phone owners to call? Did a little bit of math and set it back to him. He worked that list like crazy, and it wasn't a money question that got him that election. He won it by about one hundred and fifty votes, I think, and maybe misrememory it may have been a little bigger than that, but you know, it's not a huge margin, and it was a hustle margin. Right now, he's a member of House leadership as a freshman. So you can build it on a foundation of hard work, but it's a building block over time.

And you can I mean money. When Luke was talking about money that's for federal levels. For local elections, you can get by on less money. It's not necessary. You can do the hard work. I remember I did a race for state Assembly from a guy his name is Thematas, very very nice guy, very wealthy guy, would not put the work in. He only wanted to work on Sundays because he didn't want to spend any time from his business. This man could so sell snowballs and snowstorms, but I couldn't get in front of voters ever, and we ended up losing. He did extremely well, shockingly well, but he just he just putting the man hours in for a local office is super essential. So okay, how does a candidate feed their families while running for office? Do they love of a savings or they spend campaign dollars as a substitute.

And you can I mean money. When Luke was talking about money that's for federal levels. For local elections, you can get by on less money. It's not necessary. You can do the hard work. I remember I did a race for state Assembly from a guy his name is Thematas, very very nice guy, very wealthy guy, would not put the work in. He only wanted to work on Sundays because he didn't want to spend any time from his business. This man could so sell snowballs and snowstorms, but I couldn't get in front of voters ever, and we ended up losing. He did extremely well, shockingly well, but he just he just putting the man hours in for a local office is super essential. So okay, how does a candidate feed their families while running for office? Do they love of a savings or they spend campaign dollars as a substitute.

So it's really hard. I would like a political culture that would sort of hate this word, but normalize people you paying themselves out of paying a salary out of the campaign, because I think if you're a donor to camp to a campaign, you should want the candidate to be working at that full time, not distracted by a job. Right on the flip side, donors get really unhappy about you paying yourself a nomenal salary out of your campaign for federal races. It's completely legal, you know, it's I think I don't know exactly what the amount is you have to disclose it. Most people don't do it because they feel like the political blowback is going to be worse than the upside.

So it's really hard. I would like a political culture that would sort of hate this word, but normalize people you paying themselves out of paying a salary out of the campaign, because I think if you're a donor to camp to a campaign, you should want the candidate to be working at that full time, not distracted by a job. Right on the flip side, donors get really unhappy about you paying yourself a nomenal salary out of your campaign for federal races. It's completely legal, you know, it's I think I don't know exactly what the amount is you have to disclose it. Most people don't do it because they feel like the political blowback is going to be worse than the upside.

And so most you can pay for like meals, if your team is going out for McDonald's or something, you can pay for that the campaign funds or total.

And so most you can pay for like meals, if your team is going out for McDonald's or something, you can pay for that the campaign funds or total.

Yeah. Yeah, nobody's going to be mad if they see some meals and some gasoline. Now, people will to be clear. This is also where danger lies because you'll see, especially bad candidates will over itemize things, right, So it just makes their compliance really hard and it winds up costing them more to sort their compliance that would to just eat the light bulbs for three dollars that they paid for. Right. The flip side also is you will see people who will do things like buy gas cards and all of a sudden they're kind of using the campaign as petty cash, right, and that's where you can get in real truck.

Yeah. Yeah, nobody's going to be mad if they see some meals and some gasoline. Now, people will to be clear. This is also where danger lies because you'll see, especially bad candidates will over itemize things, right, So it just makes their compliance really hard and it winds up costing them more to sort their compliance that would to just eat the light bulbs for three dollars that they paid for. Right. The flip side also is you will see people who will do things like buy gas cards and all of a sudden they're kind of using the campaign as petty cash, right, and that's where you can get in real truck.

Okay, this is a great consulting question. How do consultants have the good judgment to know who to work for, who will be a strong cant running for office for the right reasons, or who is an egomaniac who you won't follow your advice. I have worked for many an egomaniac that will not follow my advice. I've only ever quit one campaign my whole life from a state senator who was out of control and like abusage to the staff. As far as like a good judgment. When you're for a lot of consultants, it's about who's going to hire you, right, because it's it is a you only are ever really working for two years if you're working on just campaigns. It's important realize people who work on campaigns don't always go to work for Congress or work in the state legislature, for the govern or, whatever you're doing. It happens a lot, but a lot of people like Luke and I work for campaigns. We just do campaigns a year after year after year. So if that's your life, just the campaign hustle, you're always both looking for new work while doing work with the expectation that your job is only a year to two years long.

Okay, this is a great consulting question. How do consultants have the good judgment to know who to work for, who will be a strong cant running for office for the right reasons, or who is an egomaniac who you won't follow your advice. I have worked for many an egomaniac that will not follow my advice. I've only ever quit one campaign my whole life from a state senator who was out of control and like abusage to the staff. As far as like a good judgment. When you're for a lot of consultants, it's about who's going to hire you, right, because it's it is a you only are ever really working for two years if you're working on just campaigns. It's important realize people who work on campaigns don't always go to work for Congress or work in the state legislature, for the govern or, whatever you're doing. It happens a lot, but a lot of people like Luke and I work for campaigns. We just do campaigns a year after year after year. So if that's your life, just the campaign hustle, you're always both looking for new work while doing work with the expectation that your job is only a year to two years long.

I mean, that's why I do so many super PACs, is so that I don't have to deal with the candidate.

I mean, that's why I do so many super PACs, is so that I don't have to deal with the candidate.

That is true, and you work with soup Bac, you have a lot less anxiety moments.

That is true, and you work with soup Bac, you have a lot less anxiety moments.

Yeah, yeah, well there's the anxiety is more donor related. Are they going to give? They're not going to give. I know they won't come through now, I look, it's a really hard question. And the reality is when you're starting out in this business, you just have to hustle for everything right, and you can wind up working with some real freaks and some real losers. And you know, the trick is not to get stuck there, and that requires a kind of I think moral discipline to say, yes, I know Smith sucks, I know he's not going to win, and thank god he's not going to win, but damn it, John Smith, for you know, select campaign is going to be the best damn Selectman campaign anyone's ever seen. And in my experience, you know, when you do a good campaign, people will notice. Not always, but sometimes they will notice. And you know, so you can a campaign can transcend its canon. The other thing you can do is just you know, do what I do and convince your friends to run for office. You know they do.

Yeah, yeah, well there's the anxiety is more donor related. Are they going to give? They're not going to give. I know they won't come through now, I look, it's a really hard question. And the reality is when you're starting out in this business, you just have to hustle for everything right, and you can wind up working with some real freaks and some real losers. And you know, the trick is not to get stuck there, and that requires a kind of I think moral discipline to say, yes, I know Smith sucks, I know he's not going to win, and thank god he's not going to win, but damn it, John Smith, for you know, select campaign is going to be the best damn Selectman campaign anyone's ever seen. And in my experience, you know, when you do a good campaign, people will notice. Not always, but sometimes they will notice. And you know, so you can a campaign can transcend its canon. The other thing you can do is just you know, do what I do and convince your friends to run for office. You know they do.

I have to, Luke, No, not really, okay, I guess I have to run.

I have to, Luke, No, not really, okay, I guess I have to run.

Exactly well, it's this is the bait and switch I pull as I spend years convincing them they should run for offs. Then when they finally sit down with me and they're like, I'm ready to have the talk, the first thing I say is, you don't want run for offs? It's stupid. Why do you want to run for office? You have a great life. Your life is good, your your spouse likes you, You're doing well in business, you see your children every day. What are you out of your mind? What do you want to run a like low grade fever for the next fifteen months. You want to hear the same joke fifty five times? You want to five hundred to sell the Times? Yeah, tell the same story. Yeah, yeah, but no. I think you know one thing to keep in mind, and this is especially true. I think as the millennial population boom enters into sort of middle age, there's no definition of who a candidate is or what a candidate looks like. The barriers to entry that I enumerated are very real, right, to be clear, they're very real. On the other hand, they're not fatal right that they can be overcome if you're strategic and so, you know, go out and meet people, meet people who volunteer, meet people who knock on doors. Assess whether you think they're good people, whether they're smart people, whether they're thoughtful people, whether they're hard working and honest people. You know, politics could be a business with a fair amount of deceit in it, but both within a legislature and I think within a campaign, honesty is the current and see that you have above all else. And as long as you have an honest relationship with your client as a consultant, and as long as you instill in your client that, especially if going into a legislature, you cannot lie to your colleagues because they will never trust you and never forgive you and isolate you and make you miserable. Well, I'll use an affirmative example. You know, I when when our mutual friend Vice President Vance was then maybe Senator Advance. Uh, you know, he went into the Senate as something of a hot shot, well known entity, you know, conservative firebrand, et cetera. But his attitude towards the Senate. We talked about this a lot, was like, I'm going to be straight with me. I know they disagree with me on several issues, but I'm just going to act with complete integrity, and I understand some people are going to be sneaky around me, but my colleagues will see that. They'll see that I act with integrity and they will trust me, and down the line that will pay off. And he was able to build relationships with people who were not ideologically akin to him. Right. Susan Collins is a great example of this. They don't agree on a lot, there are a lot of issues where they go back and forth, but they were always very straight with each other. He really admired the way that she operated and the way that she was very upfront and told people where she was on things, and learned a lot from her. Conveyed his gratitude to her for that, and as a result, you know here in this confirmation fight when he sat down and talked to her about certain nominees that carried a lot of weight because she knew he wasn't lying.

Exactly well, it's this is the bait and switch I pull as I spend years convincing them they should run for offs. Then when they finally sit down with me and they're like, I'm ready to have the talk, the first thing I say is, you don't want run for offs? It's stupid. Why do you want to run for office? You have a great life. Your life is good, your your spouse likes you, You're doing well in business, you see your children every day. What are you out of your mind? What do you want to run a like low grade fever for the next fifteen months. You want to hear the same joke fifty five times? You want to five hundred to sell the Times? Yeah, tell the same story. Yeah, yeah, but no. I think you know one thing to keep in mind, and this is especially true. I think as the millennial population boom enters into sort of middle age, there's no definition of who a candidate is or what a candidate looks like. The barriers to entry that I enumerated are very real, right, to be clear, they're very real. On the other hand, they're not fatal right that they can be overcome if you're strategic and so, you know, go out and meet people, meet people who volunteer, meet people who knock on doors. Assess whether you think they're good people, whether they're smart people, whether they're thoughtful people, whether they're hard working and honest people. You know, politics could be a business with a fair amount of deceit in it, but both within a legislature and I think within a campaign, honesty is the current and see that you have above all else. And as long as you have an honest relationship with your client as a consultant, and as long as you instill in your client that, especially if going into a legislature, you cannot lie to your colleagues because they will never trust you and never forgive you and isolate you and make you miserable. Well, I'll use an affirmative example. You know, I when when our mutual friend Vice President Vance was then maybe Senator Advance. Uh, you know, he went into the Senate as something of a hot shot, well known entity, you know, conservative firebrand, et cetera. But his attitude towards the Senate. We talked about this a lot, was like, I'm going to be straight with me. I know they disagree with me on several issues, but I'm just going to act with complete integrity, and I understand some people are going to be sneaky around me, but my colleagues will see that. They'll see that I act with integrity and they will trust me, and down the line that will pay off. And he was able to build relationships with people who were not ideologically akin to him. Right. Susan Collins is a great example of this. They don't agree on a lot, there are a lot of issues where they go back and forth, but they were always very straight with each other. He really admired the way that she operated and the way that she was very upfront and told people where she was on things, and learned a lot from her. Conveyed his gratitude to her for that, and as a result, you know here in this confirmation fight when he sat down and talked to her about certain nominees that carried a lot of weight because she knew he wasn't lying.

All right, That's a great example. Or you could be a senator from many senators who they copied their colleagues bills, they reintroduced them for themselves to claim credit for it so they can get hits on right wing media. Then they just write books endlessly in toward the books until they do some other job, like, for a complete random example, become the president of the University of Florida or something. I don't know who knows, but yeah, this is a great question to Paul blast One. How do you commnce a good person run for office? And can you dissuade a bad person who shouldn't be running for office? So I'll say for bad people, I'll say sometimes the party bosses or the powers that be or major donors can sit there and they could say to them, we use they use a carrot and say, listen, if you you know, maybe you could run for a party delegate, maybe you could have this position. Maybe you go to that position, but don't run for the office you want to run for it. Or they could use a stick and say, if you do this, we're going to spend a gajillion dollars against you and ruin you. So don't do it like they could do. People do that. Can consultancy that not really not so much. I mean I've never seen it personally where a consultant can just bully somebody out of running for office.

All right, That's a great example. Or you could be a senator from many senators who they copied their colleagues bills, they reintroduced them for themselves to claim credit for it so they can get hits on right wing media. Then they just write books endlessly in toward the books until they do some other job, like, for a complete random example, become the president of the University of Florida or something. I don't know who knows, but yeah, this is a great question to Paul blast One. How do you commnce a good person run for office? And can you dissuade a bad person who shouldn't be running for office? So I'll say for bad people, I'll say sometimes the party bosses or the powers that be or major donors can sit there and they could say to them, we use they use a carrot and say, listen, if you you know, maybe you could run for a party delegate, maybe you could have this position. Maybe you go to that position, but don't run for the office you want to run for it. Or they could use a stick and say, if you do this, we're going to spend a gajillion dollars against you and ruin you. So don't do it like they could do. People do that. Can consultancy that not really not so much. I mean I've never seen it personally where a consultant can just bully somebody out of running for office.

Yeah, it's really hard. I mean, I think in general, though, this is really asking the same question, which is how do you motivate people in relation to public office? And the reality is is that everybody who thinks about running for office is ambitious. Right. They don't do this because they don't want to win. And I think we have a culture that treats ambition as a crime, and that's foolish. They're ambitious, right, I mean, there's not a single person who pulls papers for state legislator that doesn't think in some dark moment in the back of his or her mind about the oval office. Like they just all it's okay, it's okay.

Yeah, it's really hard. I mean, I think in general, though, this is really asking the same question, which is how do you motivate people in relation to public office? And the reality is is that everybody who thinks about running for office is ambitious. Right. They don't do this because they don't want to win. And I think we have a culture that treats ambition as a crime, and that's foolish. They're ambitious, right, I mean, there's not a single person who pulls papers for state legislator that doesn't think in some dark moment in the back of his or her mind about the oval office. Like they just all it's okay, it's okay.

Present the truth though, everyone. If you're running for like Dogcatcher, you're thinking, I could be.

Present the truth though, everyone. If you're running for like Dogcatcher, you're thinking, I could be.

Praising you know, I'm I'm three pitbulls away from state selectmen and from selectman that I'm gonna run for that state Senate district. I'm gonna jump over the lower House entirely, and once I'm in the senate State Senate Andy Barley dor because I'm going this rocket show. Yeah, that's true, and you know what good good? Right? I mean, the framers of the Constitution, founders of this country were utterly unabashed about their desire for virtuous fame, right, for for earned fame and and the you know they they talk about it in speeches and their private ridings and their correspondence, et cetera. The desire for ambition, the ambition for office, prominence, esteem, leadership, power, fine, the hedonic treadmill is a universal. And so don't go around looking for someone and saying, well, I don't like this person because he's ambitious, but I do like this person because she doesn't seem like she wants the office.

Praising you know, I'm I'm three pitbulls away from state selectmen and from selectman that I'm gonna run for that state Senate district. I'm gonna jump over the lower House entirely, and once I'm in the senate State Senate Andy Barley dor because I'm going this rocket show. Yeah, that's true, and you know what good good? Right? I mean, the framers of the Constitution, founders of this country were utterly unabashed about their desire for virtuous fame, right, for for earned fame and and the you know they they talk about it in speeches and their private ridings and their correspondence, et cetera. The desire for ambition, the ambition for office, prominence, esteem, leadership, power, fine, the hedonic treadmill is a universal. And so don't go around looking for someone and saying, well, I don't like this person because he's ambitious, but I do like this person because she doesn't seem like she wants the office.

Right right now. Usually they very rarely win if they don't really want.

Right right now. Usually they very rarely win if they don't really want.

Right Either you're misreading her and she's really actually quite ambitious, or like she's just not going to put in time. And that's fine, right, But don't try to dragoon somebody into something they don't really want to do, because the reality is they're going to put themselves and their family and sometimes you through hell, but not nearly as much as you will be putting them through. Help. Now, they're also the principle, they're the candidate, and so it's to them redounds the benefit, redounds, the fame and the power, etc. You are a staff player, you're a bit player, you are support, right, and don't ever forget.

Right Either you're misreading her and she's really actually quite ambitious, or like she's just not going to put in time. And that's fine, right, But don't try to dragoon somebody into something they don't really want to do, because the reality is they're going to put themselves and their family and sometimes you through hell, but not nearly as much as you will be putting them through. Help. Now, they're also the principle, they're the candidate, and so it's to them redounds the benefit, redounds, the fame and the power, etc. You are a staff player, you're a bit player, you are support, right, and don't ever forget.

That that is so true. Consultant should never be more popular than there candidates they work for. What is the impact on a candidate's family and what should they expect and how should they prepare for it.

That that is so true. Consultant should never be more popular than there candidates they work for. What is the impact on a candidate's family and what should they expect and how should they prepare for it.

It's a really haution. Yeah, it's a great question. It's really hard. So a lot gets demanded of the family because simply absence is a big part of that, right, I mean, when are prime campaigning times weekends when you might be you know, going to games, uh, you know some a while people are connunations exactly. So you know, one thing is to be very clear with your family up front, like hey, look, this is this is going to cost us things, and have frank conversations as a consultant. Also, you need to build a trusting relationship with the spouse, all right, Like the spouse is never the problem, and if the spouse is the problem, you need to get out of a campaign because it's dysfunctional. But in a situation where you can't just be like, oh he's being unreason or oh she's being unrealistic, Like you're asking way more of the spouse than is reasonable to ask of anyone, even if you're running for like state legislature, if you're having spouse problems, it's because you've failed to manage expectations or you failed to execute. Now that's not a huge issue. Just learn and get better and think about it in that way. The best way to think about that is the same way you think about a candidate. What are the motivations and what are the aspirations? Right?

It's a really haution. Yeah, it's a great question. It's really hard. So a lot gets demanded of the family because simply absence is a big part of that, right, I mean, when are prime campaigning times weekends when you might be you know, going to games, uh, you know some a while people are connunations exactly. So you know, one thing is to be very clear with your family up front, like hey, look, this is this is going to cost us things, and have frank conversations as a consultant. Also, you need to build a trusting relationship with the spouse, all right, Like the spouse is never the problem, and if the spouse is the problem, you need to get out of a campaign because it's dysfunctional. But in a situation where you can't just be like, oh he's being unreason or oh she's being unrealistic, Like you're asking way more of the spouse than is reasonable to ask of anyone, even if you're running for like state legislature, if you're having spouse problems, it's because you've failed to manage expectations or you failed to execute. Now that's not a huge issue. Just learn and get better and think about it in that way. The best way to think about that is the same way you think about a candidate. What are the motivations and what are the aspirations? Right?

And then what do you go into a marriage? When I was thinking about like is this person you should know, like, oh, my spouse is going to do something someday and I have to be prepared for it.

And then what do you go into a marriage? When I was thinking about like is this person you should know, like, oh, my spouse is going to do something someday and I have to be prepared for it.

Correct correct.

Correct correct.

If they have that fire in, then it's probably never going to go away.

If they have that fire in, then it's probably never going to go away.

Yeah, And look like I ask every client I work with, like have you had the talk? Where is missus or mister X on this? And if mister and missus X is not all in, then I tell them you really shouldn't do this. You know. I know people who fresh off a divorce want to run for office because it's like I got to get some in my life. And it's like, well, that's tritherapy in church, because this is not a spiritual.

Yeah, And look like I ask every client I work with, like have you had the talk? Where is missus or mister X on this? And if mister and missus X is not all in, then I tell them you really shouldn't do this. You know. I know people who fresh off a divorce want to run for office because it's like I got to get some in my life. And it's like, well, that's tritherapy in church, because this is not a spiritual.

Hospital you're listening to. It's a numbers game with Ryan Grodowski. We'll be right back after this message, how in depth are background checks? And when you want to run and they bring in a consultant for background checks. Okay, so background checks don't happen usually for local office. A lot of times they don't happen, even for congressional offices. Remember George Santos won his election without anyone knowing anything, and well most people they don't know anything. No one picked up on it. He could have been picked up on it. Luke made a face, me, that's what. Yeah, But George has had a million red flags flopping in the wind, the size that you would see a flag you would see a car dealership in like Midwest. That's how big the flags were. And they were not picked up until the until the New York Times brought it up trying to write a puff piece about him and saying, oh wow, nothing he says makes sense. So for local office, very rarely to ever being picked up. Maybe if you're like running from mayor or something like that, but very rarely. Higher office it happens more. I mean, there are people is very expensive to do big background checks some people, but there are people to do it. It costs a lot of money.

Hospital you're listening to. It's a numbers game with Ryan Grodowski. We'll be right back after this message, how in depth are background checks? And when you want to run and they bring in a consultant for background checks. Okay, so background checks don't happen usually for local office. A lot of times they don't happen, even for congressional offices. Remember George Santos won his election without anyone knowing anything, and well most people they don't know anything. No one picked up on it. He could have been picked up on it. Luke made a face, me, that's what. Yeah, But George has had a million red flags flopping in the wind, the size that you would see a flag you would see a car dealership in like Midwest. That's how big the flags were. And they were not picked up until the until the New York Times brought it up trying to write a puff piece about him and saying, oh wow, nothing he says makes sense. So for local office, very rarely to ever being picked up. Maybe if you're like running from mayor or something like that, but very rarely. Higher office it happens more. I mean, there are people is very expensive to do big background checks some people, but there are people to do it. It costs a lot of money.

Yeah, there are degrees of vulnerability study. Right, you should pay somebody to run a Lexus Nexus whack on you and just run your name and addresses through Lexus and Nexus. Yeah, because that's not that expensive and that will That's eighty five percent of what most opposition research is going to look like.

Yeah, there are degrees of vulnerability study. Right, you should pay somebody to run a Lexus Nexus whack on you and just run your name and addresses through Lexus and Nexus. Yeah, because that's not that expensive and that will That's eighty five percent of what most opposition research is going to look like.

And for God's sakes, by the way, clear your social media history. Clear it, I don't care what it is. Download every picture of your face with it you want to keep, and wipe it clean. Wipe everything clean. The amount of candidates who lose because they were insane on social media five six, seven, eight, nine years ago is and it's sort clear your social media.

And for God's sakes, by the way, clear your social media history. Clear it, I don't care what it is. Download every picture of your face with it you want to keep, and wipe it clean. Wipe everything clean. The amount of candidates who lose because they were insane on social media five six, seven, eight, nine years ago is and it's sort clear your social media.

Ryan, are you admitting that you have a New to Africa account to it? Yeah? Exactly right. Well, the other thing that's valuable here too is you know a lot of times people don't understand what oppositional research is. They think, oh, opposition research, it's going to be a PI going through my trash to see if I'm cheating on my wife. Look, if you're running in a competitive frontline senate district, yes someone's going to ruffle your trash probably, but maybe not right. The reality is is that most opposition research surfaces tendentious things that can be spun a certain way. Oh, you had a boundary dispute with your neighbor, very normal thing, right. We weren't sure where the leans were. We couldn't figure it out. We wound up going to court. Right. In twenty fourteen was when I was at the NRSC. We spent millions of dollars convincing islands, which was pretty easy to do because it was true that Bruce Brayley, then a congressman running for Senate against Junior, was an asshole because he sued his neighbor over some chickens. Right now, Bruce Brayley, if you ask him like, hey, are you an asshole, He's gonna say no, I'm not an asshole. Okay, But you run a lessis search on and you go suit your neighbor over some chickens. Huh. Oh, that's gonna leave a mark. I can write that, right. And so it's often really pedestrian things that you wouldn't think about. Right. Oh, I had somebody file a complaint against my insert small business over insert totally normal thing. We disputed it, it went away, et cetera. Right. Oh, you know, pregnant lady in car accident left hung out to dry by Canada. Why again, On the merit you can win these things a lot, and in some cases, as I've done in a few races, you can get takedown orders if they try to put it on broadcast TV. But like you want to know what those are so you can pre butt them. And you know, sometimes these things happen live on the fly and you can't anticipate what they're going to be because they're just crazy, you know, the like the Ohio Senate primary. I was, yeah, I was working for Burning Marino Superpack and like, one of our opponents was shopping this story that he had an adult FriendFinder account that was like obviously a prank and obviously had never been used. They shopped it and shopped and shopped it, and like, I'm sure they were doing this on campaign side as well. I was on the superpackside. We were killing it over and over and over again. And then a week before election day, the Associated Press runs the story with glaring factual errors in it, like glaring factual errors, but they just run the story and like, we were, you know, we were prepared. We retaliated, We took it down. We found the guy who built the initial database infrastructure for adult friend Finder, and he was just like, yeah, iPhones didn't exist in two thousand and sixty EIGHTIO. It's like, this isn't Jeoe located. This is just a lat long lookup table, which we could tell and we sort of had that ready to go, but we needed an authority to rebut the AP story because the AP had run this thing and put it in print, which was insane. Yeah, anyway, all this is a long witted way of saying, like, there's some stuff that's just going to happen now if.

Ryan, are you admitting that you have a New to Africa account to it? Yeah? Exactly right. Well, the other thing that's valuable here too is you know a lot of times people don't understand what oppositional research is. They think, oh, opposition research, it's going to be a PI going through my trash to see if I'm cheating on my wife. Look, if you're running in a competitive frontline senate district, yes someone's going to ruffle your trash probably, but maybe not right. The reality is is that most opposition research surfaces tendentious things that can be spun a certain way. Oh, you had a boundary dispute with your neighbor, very normal thing, right. We weren't sure where the leans were. We couldn't figure it out. We wound up going to court. Right. In twenty fourteen was when I was at the NRSC. We spent millions of dollars convincing islands, which was pretty easy to do because it was true that Bruce Brayley, then a congressman running for Senate against Junior, was an asshole because he sued his neighbor over some chickens. Right now, Bruce Brayley, if you ask him like, hey, are you an asshole, He's gonna say no, I'm not an asshole. Okay, But you run a lessis search on and you go suit your neighbor over some chickens. Huh. Oh, that's gonna leave a mark. I can write that, right. And so it's often really pedestrian things that you wouldn't think about. Right. Oh, I had somebody file a complaint against my insert small business over insert totally normal thing. We disputed it, it went away, et cetera. Right. Oh, you know, pregnant lady in car accident left hung out to dry by Canada. Why again, On the merit you can win these things a lot, and in some cases, as I've done in a few races, you can get takedown orders if they try to put it on broadcast TV. But like you want to know what those are so you can pre butt them. And you know, sometimes these things happen live on the fly and you can't anticipate what they're going to be because they're just crazy, you know, the like the Ohio Senate primary. I was, yeah, I was working for Burning Marino Superpack and like, one of our opponents was shopping this story that he had an adult FriendFinder account that was like obviously a prank and obviously had never been used. They shopped it and shopped and shopped it, and like, I'm sure they were doing this on campaign side as well. I was on the superpackside. We were killing it over and over and over again. And then a week before election day, the Associated Press runs the story with glaring factual errors in it, like glaring factual errors, but they just run the story and like, we were, you know, we were prepared. We retaliated, We took it down. We found the guy who built the initial database infrastructure for adult friend Finder, and he was just like, yeah, iPhones didn't exist in two thousand and sixty EIGHTIO. It's like, this isn't Jeoe located. This is just a lat long lookup table, which we could tell and we sort of had that ready to go, but we needed an authority to rebut the AP story because the AP had run this thing and put it in print, which was insane. Yeah, anyway, all this is a long witted way of saying, like, there's some stuff that's just going to happen now if.

You're not, it's not as in depth, especially for local office, as you would think. I think that right now, that's mostly a movie version of what running for office like that is.

You're not, it's not as in depth, especially for local office, as you would think. I think that right now, that's mostly a movie version of what running for office like that is.

Now, if you are addicted to drugs, if you have a gambling habit and like eighteen extra marital relationships going on, or really any extramarical relationships going on, first of all, you have don't have the time to run for office. You are already over committed. But like, just don't don't. All right, this is not the place to work your shit out. Okay, It's just not like America will be fine. We don't need you in this capacity.

Now, if you are addicted to drugs, if you have a gambling habit and like eighteen extra marital relationships going on, or really any extramarical relationships going on, first of all, you have don't have the time to run for office. You are already over committed. But like, just don't don't. All right, this is not the place to work your shit out. Okay, It's just not like America will be fine. We don't need you in this capacity.

Some men would rather run for office than get therapy any such cases. Okay, well, it's three more questions really quick, because I know it's been a while. So first, how much better is internal polling compared to public polling? And do the cam pagns know a lot more than the news organizations? So I will say this one. It's not about because a lot of people do public polls also do internal polls. It is not a matter of necessarily that they know more. It's kind of what kind of polls are they doing. Is it a mixture of text message and phone calls? Is a live call or is it just internet? It's really about the polling organization than necessarily who does it? Tony Fabrizio, who did President Trump's polls? Any did Jadvance's US Senate polls? He also has polls for the Wall Street Journal. They don't look very much different than each other. He's not trying to hoax the Wall Street Journal because he's given the good stuff over to President Trump. It's also what kind of questions that they ask. Campaigns will ask different types of questions, the less persuasion questions like hey, if I talk about this, or if my opponent is if no, my opponent believes this, how will sway the election? Journalists or news organizations are not going to ask those same type of questions. A different style of question that they're going to ask.

Some men would rather run for office than get therapy any such cases. Okay, well, it's three more questions really quick, because I know it's been a while. So first, how much better is internal polling compared to public polling? And do the cam pagns know a lot more than the news organizations? So I will say this one. It's not about because a lot of people do public polls also do internal polls. It is not a matter of necessarily that they know more. It's kind of what kind of polls are they doing. Is it a mixture of text message and phone calls? Is a live call or is it just internet? It's really about the polling organization than necessarily who does it? Tony Fabrizio, who did President Trump's polls? Any did Jadvance's US Senate polls? He also has polls for the Wall Street Journal. They don't look very much different than each other. He's not trying to hoax the Wall Street Journal because he's given the good stuff over to President Trump. It's also what kind of questions that they ask. Campaigns will ask different types of questions, the less persuasion questions like hey, if I talk about this, or if my opponent is if no, my opponent believes this, how will sway the election? Journalists or news organizations are not going to ask those same type of questions. A different style of question that they're going to ask.

Yeah, I mean news as a general proposition, all things being equal, private polling is better than media polling. Right. In general, it's better because the campaigns are going to spend more because it's going to guide strategic spending. They're also going to better because they're gonna better written.

Yeah, I mean news as a general proposition, all things being equal, private polling is better than media polling. Right. In general, it's better because the campaigns are going to spend more because it's going to guide strategic spending. They're also going to better because they're gonna better written.

Because most of news organizations, why, they do not pay for any polling. I've learned that it's free. It's price the publicity for the pollstar. Some do, some do, some of most do not.

Because most of news organizations, why, they do not pay for any polling. I've learned that it's free. It's price the publicity for the pollstar. Some do, some do, some of most do not.

Yeah, the uh, you know, just media is interested in election anticipation polling. That's their goal. They want to know who's popular, who's unpopular, how happier people with the country, what's the ballot going to look like? Right, it's if the election were held today. That's what they care about. You know, when we're writing polls for a campaign, we're thinking about our ad budget and we're thinking about what segments the electorate do we need to work on, what messages work with those people, What are the aspects of us that we're not hitting on What are issues that are really important? Are we messaging on them effectively? Where are we getting bounced by our opponent? Et cetera, et cetera. And you know, especially in primaries where structural factors don't matter as much and strategy is more important. Sorry, that's just the truth. You know, you can you can start to see, like, okay, which parts of the party and ideological tendencies or demographic tendencies are moving with, which person who's really vulnerable, et cetera. You know, I'll use I'll use another example from from the Ohio Senate race. You know Frank Lrose, who I like. I've got a good relationship with Frank. This is not a personal thing, this is a professional thing. Frank was running against my client. And you know, Frank had traditionally been if you had done a poll on which parts of the party he was most popular with, it would have been more moderates versus very conservative voters. Ignizing that this was going to be a problem in or Republican primary, he undertook projects to bolst his conservative boat feet days. Totally normal candid behavior. That's not cynical, that's politics, Like it's the smart right thing to do, and it helped he drove up his his fave on fave with very conservative voters. It damaged him with his previous base of voters because they were like, Oh, this isn't the guy I thought it was. Maybe I'm not such a big fan of. And I saw this in the polling Over time, as I looked at where Frank was doing with tendencies, and I knew that I had some messaging that would really undercut his stance with social conservatives. I had, I had from the research and et cetera. I had put together all this stuff, and essentially what I found was that he was out on a limb that I could cut off behind it. And that's not me. You know, the ballot on any of those polls, and even the fave on faves, they weren't actually useful to me in and of themselves. It was only who's he most popular with, who's the least popular with? How did these issues resonate? Et cetera. And so it was about putting together the combination of, you know, if every campaign is a question time, territory and resource, right, I had a pretty good sense of what my resource was for money, I need to know what my ideological resource was because or what my ideological territory was. And then timing was just a matter of getting close to election.

Yeah, the uh, you know, just media is interested in election anticipation polling. That's their goal. They want to know who's popular, who's unpopular, how happier people with the country, what's the ballot going to look like? Right, it's if the election were held today. That's what they care about. You know, when we're writing polls for a campaign, we're thinking about our ad budget and we're thinking about what segments the electorate do we need to work on, what messages work with those people, What are the aspects of us that we're not hitting on What are issues that are really important? Are we messaging on them effectively? Where are we getting bounced by our opponent? Et cetera, et cetera. And you know, especially in primaries where structural factors don't matter as much and strategy is more important. Sorry, that's just the truth. You know, you can you can start to see, like, okay, which parts of the party and ideological tendencies or demographic tendencies are moving with, which person who's really vulnerable, et cetera. You know, I'll use I'll use another example from from the Ohio Senate race. You know Frank Lrose, who I like. I've got a good relationship with Frank. This is not a personal thing, this is a professional thing. Frank was running against my client. And you know, Frank had traditionally been if you had done a poll on which parts of the party he was most popular with, it would have been more moderates versus very conservative voters. Ignizing that this was going to be a problem in or Republican primary, he undertook projects to bolst his conservative boat feet days. Totally normal candid behavior. That's not cynical, that's politics, Like it's the smart right thing to do, and it helped he drove up his his fave on fave with very conservative voters. It damaged him with his previous base of voters because they were like, Oh, this isn't the guy I thought it was. Maybe I'm not such a big fan of. And I saw this in the polling Over time, as I looked at where Frank was doing with tendencies, and I knew that I had some messaging that would really undercut his stance with social conservatives. I had, I had from the research and et cetera. I had put together all this stuff, and essentially what I found was that he was out on a limb that I could cut off behind it. And that's not me. You know, the ballot on any of those polls, and even the fave on faves, they weren't actually useful to me in and of themselves. It was only who's he most popular with, who's the least popular with? How did these issues resonate? Et cetera. And so it was about putting together the combination of, you know, if every campaign is a question time, territory and resource, right, I had a pretty good sense of what my resource was for money, I need to know what my ideological resource was because or what my ideological territory was. And then timing was just a matter of getting close to election.

At what point do you tell your candidates, quote, homie, shit is bad. That was one of my questions. So it's a great question. It's a great question. So, like, first of all, you need to be bluntly honest with your with your clients, like in a very very normal, not a normal way that you would do like your friends. I had a client one time who I was being very polite to and I was like, you need to go before we take pictures to use everywhere. You need to get your teeth cleaned because your teeth are orange. Like I can't emphasize enough. You need like you need to be so blunt with them and be like, no, this is not this is not working at Like, you need to do something with yourself. When the race is coming down to the water, needed to sit there and say something. You know, if it's a matter of winning and losing. You also have to know your client. If your client is just illusional, and I've had a few of them and you're like, look, you're not living in the world that I'm living in So if you're having a good time, you're having a good time. But there are people that you sit there and say you know that you're like, you know it's a serious win or lost thing. You need to sit there and say you neither A invest more money or b stop investing money because there's no amount of money. Did you as this whole like you need to be out there to protect them, and that's crucial. The perfect example from history was like Susie Wilds in twenty sixteen telling Donald Trump, I think she needed like a million or ten million more dollar. I think it's ten million dollars to win Florida for him. She's like, I need ten million more dollars cash from you right now. And he screamed and he cursed. This is in the political on or those organizations. But Susie Wilde had a track record for winning this election. She knew she could do it. But it was bluntly honest, and he cut her the check and she she helped win Florida in twenty sixteen by less than a point. So it's a matter of really knowing knowing yourself, where the state of the races, and then being confident with your relationship with your client and unless they could fire you is the worst they could do. But you that's like, that is that's really where it is to understand where they are. And and uh, there are some delusional clients. A lot of them literally lives upins on nerves all the time. And generally the clients who always think they're going to lose what something, it's terrible, they are the easier ones to deal with than the ones who are confident they're always going to win.