A new Pennsylvania poll is flashing warning signs for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections — and some of the most surprising numbers involve Donald Trump, Josh Shapiro and Sen. John Fetterman.

On this episode of It’s a Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky breaks down the latest Pennsylvania polling and what it could tell us about the political environment heading into November. Democratic voters currently show a significant enthusiasm advantage, Josh Shapiro holds a commanding lead in the governor’s race, and Trump’s approval numbers reveal potential weakness with some of his own 2024 voters.

Then there’s John Fetterman. Ryan examines the Pennsylvania senator’s extraordinary political coalition as Fetterman struggles with voters in his own party while receiving surprisingly strong favorable ratings from Republicans and independents. Could Fetterman eventually be forced to run as an independent — or even switch parties?

Ryan also digs into voter attitudes toward the economy, inflation, immigration, health care and AI data centers, including overwhelming opposition to new data center construction among young Pennsylvania voters.

Plus, Ryan examines the Supreme Court’s preliminary decision involving the Trump administration’s mail-in ballot initiative and what it could mean as voting gets underway.

Later, Republican congressional candidate Mike Lipetri joins the show to discuss one of the GOP’s biggest pickup opportunities of 2026: New York’s 3rd Congressional District. The Long Island and Queens district backed Donald Trump in 2024 but is currently represented by Democrat Tom Suozzi. Lipetri explains how Republicans plan to win crossover Democrats, appeal to diverse communities, address affordability and housing, and compete in one of the country’s most closely watched House races.

Ryan closes the show with Ask Me Anything, tackling Paula Jones and Monica Lewinsky, political polling scams, Medicare for All, America’s doctor shortage and the future of health care.

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