Finance with Evan Lucas.

Finance with Evan Lucas.

Good morning, Good morning, gentlemen.

Good morning, Good morning, gentlemen.

How are you, Yeah, we're good. Are You're looking into your crystal ball? We've got bombs band fired off, there's a bit of metal being used there, and we've got of course, the markets in the US went down. We had our Prime minister, of course, couldn't catch out with Donald Trump. What does that all mean today?

How are you, Yeah, we're good. Are You're looking into your crystal ball? We've got bombs band fired off, there's a bit of metal being used there, and we've got of course, the markets in the US went down. We had our Prime minister, of course, couldn't catch out with Donald Trump. What does that all mean today?

Look today, it will be a negative thing. I think I said it yesterday. I was really surprised by how almost nonchalant, particularly equity markets have been around the issues that are going on the Middle East, and not just in the Middle East, as you just alluded to, what is happening around the US president. We are now, according to his timeline, about a week and a half away from his new release of what the final tariff for the rest of the world will be. So all that put into that into that equation you said about where I'm looking forward is I'm unfortunately seeing risk at the moment, and you were pointing to the horrible events in the Middle East. I mean I spoke about yesterday, for every ten US dollars increase per barrel, rule of thumb for this country, it's roughly about twenty cents increase per liter in petrol, and it's about twelve to thirteen cents per diesel per liter. That is going to put increased costs. It's going to slow down transportation. It's going to be an economic headache that we can't get away with. So at the moment, I am nervous about the complacency that's out there at the moment.

Look today, it will be a negative thing. I think I said it yesterday. I was really surprised by how almost nonchalant, particularly equity markets have been around the issues that are going on the Middle East, and not just in the Middle East, as you just alluded to, what is happening around the US president. We are now, according to his timeline, about a week and a half away from his new release of what the final tariff for the rest of the world will be. So all that put into that into that equation you said about where I'm looking forward is I'm unfortunately seeing risk at the moment, and you were pointing to the horrible events in the Middle East. I mean I spoke about yesterday, for every ten US dollars increase per barrel, rule of thumb for this country, it's roughly about twenty cents increase per liter in petrol, and it's about twelve to thirteen cents per diesel per liter. That is going to put increased costs. It's going to slow down transportation. It's going to be an economic headache that we can't get away with. So at the moment, I am nervous about the complacency that's out there at the moment.

So that's a supply shop to the system right back. Aund also transport. So do the Reserve Bank look at all that and I'll tell you what the prices are going to go up, we better not lower interest rates.

So that's a supply shop to the system right back. Aund also transport. So do the Reserve Bank look at all that and I'll tell you what the prices are going to go up, we better not lower interest rates.

So the RBA will definitely look at it. They won't change their views. So you're right to talk about transport. We saw it in twenty twenty one through twenty twenty two with the cost of living crisis that started with a transport crisis. I mean, the reason food vices went so far up, very very quickly is the cost of diesel particularly was through the roof. The RBA will say that's alatile item. That's why we have headline inflation and core inflation. Trim mean, they will say that that's always a volatile item, and they strip out energy and also food price increases and decreases. But if it was sustained in terms of holding their meals for let's say six months, it will naturally creep in to core inflation. That then they can't ignore it, so they will now. But if it becomes sustained, then they can't.

So the RBA will definitely look at it. They won't change their views. So you're right to talk about transport. We saw it in twenty twenty one through twenty twenty two with the cost of living crisis that started with a transport crisis. I mean, the reason food vices went so far up, very very quickly is the cost of diesel particularly was through the roof. The RBA will say that's alatile item. That's why we have headline inflation and core inflation. Trim mean, they will say that that's always a volatile item, and they strip out energy and also food price increases and decreases. But if it was sustained in terms of holding their meals for let's say six months, it will naturally creep in to core inflation. That then they can't ignore it, so they will now. But if it becomes sustained, then they can't.

So how long since the election? A couple of months if that?

So how long since the election? A couple of months if that?

If that?

If that?

And so the Treasurer now wants to have a talk about taxation and make some changes in tax while wasn't this brought up prior to the election.

And so the Treasurer now wants to have a talk about taxation and make some changes in tax while wasn't this brought up prior to the election.

Yeah, good question, and I completely agree with your point that if we were going to have an election that was five weeks ago and not discuss tax and now going to discuss tax, it needs to be brought there. What I will say, I applaud him for finally doing it. I applaud him for finally realizing that structurally the bucket, the budget is out of whack and they have to look at tax. Can't just be fiddling with superannuation like you and I have been debating for probably the last six to seven weeks. It has to be more broadbrushed. And they're finally saying they're going to sit down in August. Look at company tax and how company tax needs to be changed to basically revive the struggling business community because it's just not investing. It can't the productivity around employment because personally in coome tax is so ridiculously I as a tax take. I agree with you it should have been raised at the election. But I am happy that finally government is waking up that we are walking, sleepwalking into a structural problem that we will not be able to fix if we don't do it now.

Yeah, good question, and I completely agree with your point that if we were going to have an election that was five weeks ago and not discuss tax and now going to discuss tax, it needs to be brought there. What I will say, I applaud him for finally doing it. I applaud him for finally realizing that structurally the bucket, the budget is out of whack and they have to look at tax. Can't just be fiddling with superannuation like you and I have been debating for probably the last six to seven weeks. It has to be more broadbrushed. And they're finally saying they're going to sit down in August. Look at company tax and how company tax needs to be changed to basically revive the struggling business community because it's just not investing. It can't the productivity around employment because personally in coome tax is so ridiculously I as a tax take. I agree with you it should have been raised at the election. But I am happy that finally government is waking up that we are walking, sleepwalking into a structural problem that we will not be able to fix if we don't do it now.

If America joins the Israeli attack on Iran or the Middle East, what is that going for markets today?

If America joins the Israeli attack on Iran or the Middle East, what is that going for markets today?

That would be unprecedented. It would be a very negative initial reaction. I think that's the only way to put it. To see, the US involved in the Middle East conflict is something that hasn't happened in the last thirty to forty years. So I mean, you'd have to go back to Iraq with Desert Eagle.

That would be unprecedented. It would be a very negative initial reaction. I think that's the only way to put it. To see, the US involved in the Middle East conflict is something that hasn't happened in the last thirty to forty years. So I mean, you'd have to go back to Iraq with Desert Eagle.

All right, Markets down, I'd say based on all that glory, forty points all right, Dann forty Thanks very much mate, Well done.

All right, Markets down, I'd say based on all that glory, forty points all right, Dann forty Thanks very much mate, Well done.