John recaps the Lions 34-20 win over the Packers. John explains the reasons the Lions could pull off an upset in the playoffs and why Jordan Love's inconsistencies could force the Packers to move on from him in the offseason. Finally, John discusses Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills vs. Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins, Lamar Jackson's return to MVP form, and whether Sean Payton's Denver Broncos worst days are still ahead vs. Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears.
Stuckey from the Action Network joins John to talk about some of the best bets of the weekend.
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The volume. Just a reminder you can catch me recording this podcast live on amp amp is a new live radio app. They'll let you call in and chat with me in person while recording. Get the app on Apple's app store and make sure you follow me at John Middlecoff to get notified when I go live. What is going on My People? John Middlecoff three and out podcast. Just watch Dan Campbell and the Lions get a convincing win against the Packers. Now they are in the driver's seat, so we will dive into some things with the Lions, Dan Campbell, meathead or good coach, Jared Goff resurrecting his career. The Packers. Jordan Love's a fascinating one. I mean he can make a throw that you're like, damn, and he can also make plays that you're like, is that justin Fields? So we will talk about him as well as the Bills. Lamar Jackson, Josh McDaniels, is he ever gonna win anything? And Lincoln Riley's got a big game against a guy named Dean Sanders come Saturday, big noon kickoff. Very excited for that one. Caleb Williams, Shadoor Sanders. I'm sure there's gonna be some points scored in that bad Boy as well as Stucky. Stucky from the Action Network will join us Top Gambling. He's hot, He's winning a lot of picks. I'm gonna start giving my pick every week. Last week I started with Seattle to beat Carolina. They covered six points. This week, I will give my pick. I have to allocate my resources because I'm just going all in on one game and it's gonna be my favorite game of the week, and that's the way we'll do it. As well as Stucky's picks and what he thinks of the Colorado USC line, which is big. Like last week, the difference is the Buffs are twenty one point dog, but they're at home this week. Last week they were in Eugene, so they can bounce back. If you listen on Collins Feed, make sure you subscribe a three and out feed. We're also on YouTube. Check us out on social media, and yeah, let's just go talk some ball before before we dive in to this matchup that we just witnessed. Can I tell you about I saw some people that have I always see on Instagram people going to Lambeau for the first time. People go into like Fenway Park or Wrigley Field for the first time. I've been to none of those three, though I would love to go. And if you ever want to do something like that, obviously baseball season's over, but go to Lambeau, go to LSU, go to an incredible venue and watch a football game. Do you want to go to the Red Rivel Rivalry Texas, Oklahoma and both teams haven't lost, Well, do it on me. Grab your smartphone, download the game Time app, and when you do, the official ticketing app of this podcast, use the promo code John. That's my name, John John, and get twenty dollars off your first pair of tickets. Very easy to use, has interactive maps that are priced out as you're looking. Even shows you the view of a field of the concert stage also concerts and comedy shows. So just download the game Time app. Fast screwing ticketing app in America. Promo code John twenty dollars off. Can't beat it, Highly recommend it. I use it. You should two a lot of you have. Keep hammering that promo code. Let's start with those lions, the Dan Campbell Lions. Let's face it, they look good. They're three and one through the First, technically, it's not actually the quarter of the season now that we've got seventeen games, but let's just consider it. They've beaten the Chiefs and they've beaten the Packers on the road twice on national television. Those are two big time wins. I don't care if Taylor Swift's boyfriend's injured on the sideline or tonight. The Packers are dealing with a ton of injuries. That's impressive wins, especially tonight. I mean, they showed up ready to kick the shit out of the Packers. And I wrote down a couple of things. First and foremost, you don't need to be an NFLGM, an NFL scout, an NFL coach to see the talent the Lions possess. They have stud impact players everywhere, and let's be honest, at the most important positions, tackle, defensive end. This tight end looks like he has the chance to be a star. Multiple wide receivers, multiple running backs, other good d linemen, good young linebackers, secondary question mark. But they're gonna play in a game where they're going to control from the line of scrimmage, especially running the ball, so they're going to shorten the game that they're not trying to get in some contest where Jared Goff throws it fifty five times a game. But their talent they're drafting these last several years is really impressive. And I never understood the freak out on draft night. How could you take a running back? It's like, well, they just didn't take a running back like the Falcons, which to me made no sense. You already got running backs, you need other positions. They parlayed six into twelve, which also gave them pick thirty four in a draft that was terrible, and they took Gibbs, who I think is going to be a really good player, the running back from Alabama. They also got the tight end from Iowa, who I'm not saying he's George Kittle or TJ. Howkinson, but he sure looks to be in that mold. And they're featured in tonight. So they not only got a running back who can catch the ball and a very versatile player, but they got a tight end that looks like and I'm not trying to overreact to four games, but he's got a chance to be a stalwart on this team for years to come. So this team is drafted well they have prioritized the right things. They I would say got lucky a little bit in the draft last year with Hutchinson. That's a draft pick. When Balkey took the Georgia pass rusher, think he'd like a redo on that one. He would. This Lions team is really really talented. So obviously the NFL is not college football. Just because you have a really talented team, you're not guaranteed to make the playoffs or to win eleven twelve games. But we've all watched the Lions enough now, at minimum of you watched them twice. They're pretty good, man, they really are. And Dan Campbell took a lot of shit because everyone's like, oh, what's up with this meadhead? And yeah, he you know, probably choose a log every other day. Uh slams beers, lists some Metallica and says some stuff that gets aggregated on social media that's kind of funny, and some other coaches may not say. But let's face it, the guy played in the NFL for a long time. His biggest proponents as coaches were Bill Parcells and Sean Payton and Wathington. His team play this last year right, They started slow, ended up making a run ended Rogers career with the Packers, and then coming out this season when they kind of had a bullseye on him, And let's face it, I would say in any industry, it's always easier to be the hunter. It's always easier to be when no one's paying attention and you can just you know, make some make some ground when no one's looking gain a little market share. It's a lot harder when everyone's kind of looking at you. And I'm not acting like they're the Bills, the chiefs of the forty nine ers, but no one's overlooking the Lions. This year. People take them seriously on a weekly basis. I'll promise you that right this have too much talent. Their season went well last year, they carried it in. They're just too good at too many positions. So teams take them seriously and they're responding. Last week they beat the shit out of the Falcons. This week, beside a couple drives from Jordan Love, they worked the Packers. I mean they showed up in Lambeau and listen, he doesn't call offense, he obviously doesn't call defense, but he clearly is a huge part of helping to pick these players of putting this team together and motivating this group that plays their ass off. And let's be real, they're missing a couple of pieces, especially a big one. They drafted Jamison Williams. You know a couple of years ago. Last year he had the ACL so he didn't play at the land of the season. Then he can't help but make a parlay that probably didn't cash and miss six games this year. You add him to the multiple receivers, they already have multiple running backs, that offensive line. I don't see how that you can't take this offense and put it near the top of the league when the dust settles, and they also have an offense that's going to translate. I know this like the forty nine ers Round two. I'm not saying they'd be scared of the Lions, that they wouldn't be favored against the Lions, but that's not an easy game. I think this team's talent, when you look at the rest of the NFC, is like has some similarities maybe a year or two ago to some of the Eagles, the Cowboys, and the forty nine Ers. Now, I don't think they could beat one of those team in a playoff game, but it wouldn't be the most shocking thing. They have a lot of things that translate to playoff football. The other thing is now San Francisco. And because Dallas plays in a dome and Levi Stadium, I mean, it could be a seventy five degree day in the middle of January. But if they did have to go on the road to Philly and it was an ugly environment, Like they can really run the ball in their defensive line and playing the run, they're good at that. So led by Dan Campbell, who, let's face it, you do reflect your head coach in football. And he's a tough guy. He's an intense guy. And when I watch the Lions, I see that, right, what are the hardball brothers always had that? Neither of them call plays. They're both CEO tough, crazy motherfuckers. And when you watch their teams play for the most part over the last decade and a half, it reflects them. And when you watch the Lions play the second half of last year, in the first half of the or the first four games of this year, you see a lot of Dan Campbell and last but not least, Jared goff I was talking to a buddy in the NFL the other day about scouting quarterbacks and what to look for, and he's like, there's such big lines of delineation. The top guys, once they get rolling, can kind of overcome anything. A guy slipping on a route, a drop pass, getting sacked, guys getting injured, bad play calls. They just can overcome it mentally. Physically, they can always move on to the next play. They're unfazed. They can make plays out of nothing. They can just carry you. And then there's like this next group who cannot do it nearly at that level. If the Mahomes and the josh Allens and the Lamars and the Herberts can bail you out a majority of the time, this next group you'd probably have to cut that percentage in half. But they're still pretty darn good and you can win a lot of games with them. The Daks, the Cousins. You know, I think Jimmy Garoppolo is not any good anymore, but what he was with San Francisco Derek Carr for you know, bits and pieces of his career, and I think Jared Goff is in that when things are going pretty well and you have a good team around him, you can win a lot of games with this guy. Is he perfect? No, not a great athlete, doesn't give you much movement, But if you can block for him, the Lions can. Dude can sling it. If you can get open for him, he can get you the ball. Obviously that's happening. If you can run the ball. He's a pretty good quarterback to have. And I think Jared Goff, I think the line deserve a lot of credit because when that trade was made for Stafford, it was like, damn, you guys want Jared Goff. And the one thing Brad Holmes said, and I remember this back then and they've obviously reiterated that all the way till today is they didn't view Jared Goff as just some throwing They wanted him to be their quarterback. They thought he had a lot of football left. And this is the thing about being in you know, player personnel is just when a lot of people and listen, sometimes when the entire league and all the fans think this guy stinks whoever that player may be, they're correct, but sometimes they're not, and that guy still has good football left in him. I've talked about this before, a huge part of any of our lives are have people professionally believe in us, a boss, a mentor a partner, someone to do business with, whoever. You need proponents professionally, you need people who think you are good, who believe in what you're doing. And let's face it, Sean McVay turned on the guy hard publicly. It was actually pretty ugly. Sean McVay has gone as far as basically apologized for some of the things he did. Now, Jared Goff was not playing well, but he clearly wasn't just some shot fighter. He wasn't just some scrub because you've watched him the second half of last season, really a lot of last season and definitely this year, like he just looks like a solid quarterback. Is he gonna beat the forty nine ers or the Eagles come mid January? Probably not, But it's a big deal. With the Lions, I don't know, just win this division. Look at their schedule. They got twelve wins written all over them. You go twelve wins like that, that'd be a really really big muscle flex for Jared Goff. The Lions organization, Dan Campbell hat tipped to them because a lot of people thought that they couldn't live up to the hype. Not me. I picked them and I just bet on the talent. I really did, and I think it's showing when you watch him play. Now let's go to the other team, the Green Bay Packers. Start with the quarterback. Jordan Love is a little Jeckyll and a little Hide because when he comes out in the third quarter, he looks like a brand new quarterback moving around, throwing dimes, throwing bombs. You really see the talent, like it's clear Jordan Love. We've seen a lot of scrubs play in the NFL the last several years, right, Guys that are just not gonna be quarterbacks as a starter in the NFL for long. Zach Wilson justin fields like Trey Lance is never starting. We've seen a lot of guys Josh Rosen had a little cup of coffee he's out that just cannot play in the NFL. That is not Jordan Love. But I do think he kind of leaves you scratching your head because back to back weeks in the first half, well what's going on in the first half. Teams have game plans, teams are ready, Teams know what you like and don't like to do in terms of they've schemed it up right. It's very like we're expecting or have a decent idea of what you're gonna do the Saints did last year or last week, and he loved atrocious. And I've gone in kind of wanting to like this guy. I was like, I saw some stuff week one. I was like, I'm interested. Maybe Jordan loves a little better than I thought. And then you watch the first half of these games and you go and listen, Aiden Hutchinson looks like Reggie White out there, and their offensive line is getting shoved around, but he also is making some throws that go that's not even close. And then in the second half, both teams have leads. Obviously, the Saints were up seventeen to nothing in the fourth quarter. Maybe they just you know, pull their foot up the pedal a little bit. Obviously, the Lions come out, everyone's backed up a little bit. They don't want to give up any big plays, and he just starts slinging it around. And then he kind of gained some confidence, gained some mojo, and he looks pretty good. But to me, for me to consider him like a good player, he's gonna have to start doing this in the first halfs He can't just I don't care who you are in the NFL, you can't get down big and expect to come back. You have to start the game fast. You have to lead some legitimate drives early in the game when they know what's coming. That's what makes you a legitimate starter. So I would say, right now, you know, he clearly does not stink. He clearly is not. Just like that was a terrible pick. But I think we gotta be hesitant to say the Packers have something. He's a work in progress, rightfully, So I mean, he's young player, hasn't really played. This is only what his fifth start of his NFL career, But they have to figure out because the only way he can sustain, like the Packers are gonna feel good about him being the starter for a while, is he can handle when the game plan, when the other team knows what's coming, because that's what makes you a viable player. And I think this was my entire take coming into the season, to go from Far to Rogers and to just expect a good starter. The law of averages are just not on your side. The history of this position, the unlikelihood in the Packers historically are one of the great personnel departments in the league. They know what they're doing, they know what they're looking for, and it's just I just bet against it. And if I had to bet right now, is this guy their starter in three years or is this guy not their starter in three years? I would probably bet no. That's where I'd put my money. Now. I'd also say, like, I don't view this guy like I do some of those other quarterbacks I listed, But he does leave your hat scratching your head. He really does. And if I'm the Lions, I don't know if I'm losing much sleep as long as the Packers have him. Now, the Packers, they have been terrible. Special teams has killed them for years. Remember in the playoff game against the Niners a couple of years ago, the difference block punt, touchdown ball game. Right tonight, they're in position making this comeback a little like last week. It's like, God, is this deja vu? In Kway Walker, who also I'm pretty sure got in trouble. Was it Week seventeen last year against the Pack or the Lions in this game? Kind of a boneheaded mistake, pretty clear that's not allowed anymore, even though he didn't touch the ball. Like, I'm not a stickler for that rule, but it just feels like special team defensively, they're just always leaving a little something to be desired. I don't know. I would look at the Packers right now and think, I don't know if they're a playoff team right because if the Lions win this division, you got the Niners, Seattle, the Cowboys, the Eagles, you know, that seventh spot is definitely up for grabs. Someone's got to win it in the South. But I don't know if I see in the in the Packers, but who knows. Maybe in the NFC, if you can get close to, you know, nine wins, if you got eight wins going in the last game of the season and you got a chance to get to nine and eight, maybe maybe that'll get you the seventh seed. But if I'm a Packer fan taking some pride in last week's win, tonight though, was beside those couple drives in the third quarter, Dan Campbell kind of worked us, and that's not something we're used to. Okay, let's hit on a couple other games. After Week one happened. It was hard not to just go listen, not gonna right, Josh Allen on off and just say this guy's no longer gonna be good. You'd be stupid saying that. But that was a very embarrassing performance, and he admitted as such. But it was like, is this guy just gonna be this reckless player? Now? Is this guy gonna be a post home grin Brett Favre and just compete to lead the league in interceptions? And are the Bills in some trouble this year? Right? Sean McDermott takes back to play calling, and then all of a sudden, the last couple of weeks, the Bills got their swag back and they demolish their opponents. And now they're playing the Dolphins, who are kind of the top of the town. Everyone's anointing them, wants to hand them basically the AFC championship and just calling McDaniel Tua the receivers just the toast of the town. And I think there's a big moment for the Bills cause they're going, wait, wait, wait, We've won this division three straight years. We've been one of the league's power you guys have made the playoffs once during that time. As a seventh seed and we beat in the playoffs so close for our liking, but this division comes through us, and to me, once they get their swag back, which they did the last couple of weeks, this to me is a moment for Josh Allen, who he's got a little work to do. But like, you throw three or four touchdowns, you beat this Miami team by ten plus points. That's how you kind of start your MVP discussion. Right. His numbers, if you remove the first game, are pretty good. Throwing dimes, running the ball. He looks awesome. Right, you do this against this team, It's one thing to do it against the Commanders, It's another thing to do it against the Raiders. You beat the Miami Dolphins, It's like, Okay, Week one doesn't mean shit in Buffalo, no excuse to not kind of have a little muscle flex And this is why we watch sports. The highest played players, the most talented players at home, who have proven more than this Miami team, specifically the other quarterback. And this is also kind of a moment for him to be like, let's pump down the two a talk a little bit. I'm still the big dog around here, and I'm really excited to watch Josh Allen this week take on a defense that, let's face it, has a good defensive coordinator but doesn't have that much talent, And there's a defense that he should slice and dice, and on the flip side, his coach who took over the defensive coordinator position. Pretty big moment for Sean McDermott because, let's face it, and I know Colin's a little guilty of this, but he's not alone. A lot of people were a little down on Buffalo coming into this season. You know, Sean McDermott defensive head coach, what can he really do with the offense? Can he corralt Josh Allen? And now Sean McDermott these last couple of weeks has really been like I got one of the best defense in the league right now. We're getting pressure left and right. No one can score on us. We can dominate. Well, let's see what you can do against Tua, because here's what I know against Tua. If you do not hit him and you just give him time, and he doesn't even need that much time. He's getting rid of the ball fast. But if you do not touch him, you're gonna be in trouble. I don't care if you know you're gonna need like Deon Sanders and Revis in their prime to cover these wide receivers, and you don't have that. But if you can get pressure and if you can hit him, it's a different ballgame. And that's happened in the past, and he hasn't looked the same, So to me, Josh Allen and Sean McDermott, like this is a big moment for them to just not just show the Dolphins, but just kinda hey, hey, guys, remember we've won this division the last three years. We're the team that if our defense somehow doesn't give up forty eight yards in two plays to Kelsey and Tyreek Hill, we're in the AFC Championship Game. Now. We did get our ass kick last year by the Bengals, but we feel we've rallied the troops and we got a good, goodest chance as anybody to be right back in the AFC Championship Game. We feel we're better than the Miami Dolphins. You gotta do it, and I can't wait to watch this game. Right McDaniel, all those guys, they've earned it. You score seventy points, I don't give a shit. If you're playing cal Pauly or UC Davis and you're an NFL team, that's impressive, But that's not real football. It's not gonna look like that most games, right, It's gonna look like the Patriot game. Honestly, that game was a lot closer than you know, you actually think it was. When you were watching it, You're like, how's this game? They still got a chance. You can play defense against these guys, which is not easy, especially the motions, the shifts he's moving. These guys looks like Canadian football out there. Two guys running three nine forties. But I'm fascinated to watch Josh Allen this weekend. Another guy that I'm just interested to see is For about twelve months, Lamar Jackson's contract was one of the biggest stories in the NFL, and rightfully so. It's like he had won an MVP, he had resurrected the Ravens. They were at odds over the money, all these different angles of it, like his mom's representing them, should he take the money? They offered him enough money, they didn't actually offer him enough money. Who fucking knows, But actually who cares because now he's under an enormous contract, and I think he's looked beside a couple moments last week against it, He's looked pretty good. He really has. I mean he's a looked closer to his MVP self. Now he's got seven million injuries on his team. I mean the entire team's injured, and I think this is the type moment that you pay a guy like this a lot of money for. It's like, yeah, we got all these injuries, We're playing this awesome defense, We're on the road against a divisional opponent, and Lamar Jackson just finds a way to win it. This is why you pay this guy all this money, right, it's for this moment. It's one thing like the Bills beat the Dolphins, Like, yeah, we've been beating the Dolphins, it's not even that crazy. It's another thing when half your starters are out and it's all on you. We pay you to almost overachieve. And I'm fascinated to watch Lamar Jackson against this defense. Reading some quotes from Jim Schwartz, Obviously their team speed on defense, their physicality, this is just a fantastic matchup. This is just one of the more dynamic quarterbacks we've ever seen from an athletics standpoint, who's also good at football against the defense that through the first three weeks, you know, it looks like the Steve Curtain right now. So if I'm the Ravens, I go listen. This is on Lamar to just find a way. It's not about stats. It's not about throwing three or four touchdowns or running for one hundred and fifty yards. It's just willing our team somehow to a seventeen to fifteen victory. Just finding a way to get us to beat a divisional opponent. Because all of a sudden, we lose this game. You look up, You're like, we might have some issues. You know, we got a bunch of injuries. We're not guaranteed to win anything. This is why we pay you all this money. So and this is why Lamar Jackson wanted all this money. He's a star, and great players sometimes can overcome adversity around them, bad play calling, injuries, And I'm fascinated to see if Lamar can do it. Another couple guys, I'm fascinated to see what happens is the Chargers and the Raiders now the Raiders their home in Vegas constantly turns into an away game. Right, they play the Steelers like seventy percent Steeler fans, they play the forty nine Ers, it's like eighty percent Nineer fans. They'll play the Chiefs. It'll be a lot of Chiefs fans. I'd say the Denver fans would travel, But who's traveling to watch this Bronco team When they play a lot of big brands, their fans are gonna pack Vegas. The one place Vegas is gonna have a true home game is gonna be in Los Angeles. Now, listen, Staley. I'm done I scratching my head over his crazy fourth down calls. I said it last or early in this week, and I will continue to say that He's been doing that since the beginning. For those of us that follow this league and follow him closely, we read flagged him early on in his first year for doing stuff like this because it was never working and he was constantly doing it. He didn't just start last week. That is his MO. But if you lose to the Raiders, like it's hard for me to predict Dean Spanos, I do think if he started zwing three, they would have left him in Minnesota. Maybe it's on the table if he loses this game. But I actually think the Chargers probably win because I think the Raiders are in shambles. If you follow just people on social media, maybe you've seen around the NFL and people that tweet different stats. Tyree Wilson the guy the Raiders drafted number seven overall. They passed on Jalen Carter, which I don't think is totally crazy. Uh, but Jalen Carter with Max Crosby probably look like a pretty good duo. Wilson's been objectively a god awful player, I mean just terrible. He was one of those swing for the fences that right now the ball is in the catchers mitt it's like we got problems. And the Raiders they always feel like in this position of they're not making any progress. And I follow this team very closely for over a decade, and it just every time they take a step forward or two steps forward, it feels like they take seven steps back. And if they lose against the Chargers in front of home fans, they will be getting booed. If it's not looking good. The Jimmy Garoppolo signing, and I have a lot of respect For Jimmy, I think what he did with the forty nine ers. Dude was a tough dude. He really was limitations as a player, but a guy. If your team was e Leape, you know, you go to war with the guy. He looks like a shell of himself. He just doesn't look very good. And you can give me, you know, different schemes, relearning an offense coming from Shant regardless, just pointing and throwing picks to the other team like that. That's justin field Zach Wilson level stuff. Not a guy who's been a starting quarterback and made one hundred and twenty five million dollars in the league. It's pretty embarrassing. When I watched the Raiders, I think, how long can this continue? How long can you be in a city full of stars, bright lights and entertainment and just constantly suck. And Gruden was on that ten year, one hundred million dollar contract. He was a made guy. Unless something like what happened happened. He was not gonna get fired regardless of what happened for years. I don't know about Josh McDaniels. I think sometimes you know it right away, right Maybe I overhype Brian Dabele last year was impressive. I truly believe that his team wasn't that talented, and he willed the nine wins coaching, grit, tenacity. They did not have to me. They were like eighty percent coaching, twenty percent talent. Now this year, maybe they're terrible. They lose on Monday Football. Maybe there's not that good and maybe we anointed day Ball too fast. The thing is Josh, we saw him, then he went away and just became a coordinator again. But the hype machine, you know, it's the key in the football hype machine. Heype machine. Use your national reporters. Have Dan POMPEII write this article how you do a journal? And then it's like, well, I think Josh has figured it out. I bought into it. I was like, God, I'd hire the guy. And then you watch him. You go, this guy's just terrible at his job. I don't think he's a good head coach. Now he's not doing well. You could argue Brandon Staley last week kicking the field goal. Sometimes these guys getting these positions like what are you doing? How does this make any sense? Now it's easy for all of us sitting on the couch, eating a bag of Dorito's with a Coke zero in our hand, or a Guinness or a Guinness in our hand, watching the game and thinking what it's harder on the sideline. But still, some of these decisions are so egregious. The other thing is the way you build your team, like you were the one that brought in Chandler Jones, who is just off the reservation on social media, who you refuse to allow around the team because clearly I don't know something weirds going on, and I just wonder how long you can keep rolling. It's always easy to say for a fan base, like hey, man, just suck this year for the coach and then try to get Kayleb Williams or Drake May. But if I'm an owner and that guy sucks to get me Drake May or Caleb Williams, there's gonna be many months where I sit there, either in my suite watching the game or during the week in all my big homes and whatever rich people sit and hang out at and think about how much my coach sucks. And now all these guys have the money to write Are's thirty million dollars? Leave? Because if I think you suck. I can't keep you around. Brandon st He's not gonna be the coach in twenty twenty four. That's a fact. There is no chance on God's green Earth Brandon Staley is the Chargers head coach next year. But the Josh McDaniels thing is kind of fascinating, like how's this thing gonna go? Because I also have the same thought about Belichick and the Patriots. It's like, I like the Cowboys a lot this weekend, and let's say the Cowboys covered the six and a half and win the game, you know, thirty to thirteen, and just kind of dominate them. It's like I was talking to someone about it that knows Bill has been around him back in the day, and I said, you think Bill could ever get fired? He's like, no chance. And I'm like, I don't think he gets fired like a Brandon Staley would get fired, or Jim tom Sulla or Freddie Kitchens gets fired. But Bill Belichick's never gonna be like you know what, Robert, I've just lost my fastball. I don't think I can coach this team at a high level anymore. Just let's have a let's have a hug, will make public statements. You give me a golden parachute, and I'll just go. I guess I can't go with Couger Lynde anymore because we're broken up. I'll just go find new girlfriend, hang out in Nantucket and kick it. That's never gonna happen. The only way. It's like, hey, I don't think it's working out anymore. Like we've seen it, we've done it. It's kind of over. And if they're staring at a six win team last year they win, you know, you start trending the wrong way year after year. There's no hope either.
Right.
That's the thing with the Raiders, like where's your hope to Well, we got Devonte Adams, Well, yeah, he's killing it every game, and you're losing Max Crosby killing it every game, and you're losing Belichick. You don't even have like sweet impact players. Where are we going? What are we gonna do? How would we upgrade a quarterback? I don't see it. So I don't think I think Belichick's one of the best coaches. If he's the best football coach I've ever seen, and he's one of the all time greats any sport. But things come to an end. You know that things eventually end, the rubber meets the road, especially as you age. I mean, the guy's in his early seventies and he's stubborn as ever. So you start losing these games, which he should. He's a huge under but all of a sudden you look up and you're like, God, they're two and six. I do think it's on the table this year with the Patriots and last but not least, I like this guy. I've met him a couple of times back in the day before this podcast came to the volume he came on. He's clearly impressive and earned a one hundred million dollar contract to come to USC. And people love the guy because he's an offensive innovator. But a lot of people just think, like this USC team like playoff contender. I don't see it. I don't see anything on defense. There's not a physicality about him. There's not a grit to them. I like about eight teams in college football better now. They're clearly better than Colorado. Right, no one even objectively thinks USC and Colorado rosters are even close. But like USC, like Arizona State, last week was a game going into the second half in the middle of the second half, because when you're not a tough team and defense isn't a priority, I don't care if you have Caleb Williams throwing to Randy Moss, Barry Sanders and Terrell Owens, you still are gonna give up points. You're gonna look up and it's gonna be fifty to thirty eight. It's like, God, what is going on? That is not a recipe to win in the playoffs and definitely a national championship if the USC is real, I don't think they are. To me, I view them as like a ten to two team. Some people view them like I don't even think they'll be in the pactor of championship game. And I definitely don't think they're a playoff team. Given the way this defense is playing, and especially if they play like I think they're gonna play on Saturday, I don't expect to change my opinion. But like, this is the type game. What just what did Dan Lanning do? And I know they were hosting the game. They came out and they shoved Colorado around. It's not about Caleb Williams throwing a million touchdowns. I know we can do that. I know you're gonna score points. Can you shove this team around? Everyone's gonna be watching. You know, it's gonna be ten plus million people like the NFL. Jay Z's coming, Lebron and Browny are coming, ferreal Snoop Dog. It's gonna be a spectacle. But can you just show up and beat the shit out of them like Oregon did and kind of flex your muscles and show Now, I don't think that's gonna happen, But to me, Lincoln eventually needs to start doing that, or I don't think he can beat Oregon Washington in Utah, or you know, maybe he'll win one of three of those games. There's a toughness to football. You see what the Lions. What's a big point of difference for the Lions. They're really tough, They're really physical. It's kind of what the Packers lack, and honestly, they've lacked it for a long time. If you gave Aaron Rodgers some of those like tough grittiness that the Steelers have, that the forty nine Ers have, that the Ravens have had over the years, maybe they want some more playoff games, right. I think the Eagles have it now, they just lack it and when you lack toughness at the highest level of Division one football and obviously in the NFL, it catches up to you because there's a physicality element to the sport. As the year goes on, the weather changes. Even if you're play in southern California, you're still gonna end up in some inklin weather's whether it be in Washington or Utah. You gotta be tough. And I just don't see it, Like I understand why Colorado's not that tough. They know in the players, but usc you've bought half the country the last couple of years, got all these transfers this offseason from the SEC, like can you please show up? Let's do the Guinness Boll Take of the week. And this is hard because it's like you gotta be pretty aggressive. But it's like, I don't want to say something I totally don't believe, Like the Cardinals are gonna beat the forty nine ers. You know when I said Alabama last week was gonna lose Old Miss, I believe that. And I talked to someone that scouts the SEC is like that Ole Miss laid an egg, like that they should be able to win that game. So I didn't even feel that bad. I like my boll take because my bold take of the week, brought to you by Guinness, is Sean Payton, the ninety million dollar coach. Sometimes I hear he saying he signed a ten year, hundred million dollar contract. No, he signed a five year, ninety million dollar contract. Think like an NBA player. He's getting paid a premium. He's going to Chicago. Who everyone's been making fun ton of memes out there this week is like this game should be played at like three am. Send this game internationally, agree, Funny. I kind of want to keep an eye on this thing because I like the Bears to beat John Payton. And if you think last week was bad, and trust me, it was losing seventy to twenty, but at least you can say, hey, this is the most innovative offense in the league, all this firepower, one of the bright young minds. You lost seventy something we'll never forget, but at least it was to the best offense in the league. You lose to the Chicago Bears, who are objectively like you're equal, like just as bad as you, yet your favorite in this game by several points because you got Russell Wilson, and they got Justin Fields, who will not be a starting quarterback in the NFL in twenty twenty four. I think I think Eberflus or as I used to call him, Uberflus breaks the streak thirteenth games and beats. I don't see how you come back, because the other thing is like, well, you got to show some character, come out swinging after your big loss. Bears. That the same thing. I mean, you're basically you know that Spider Man meme where everyone they're looking at each other, same person. I think that's this, Like, what the hell's the difference? I'm taking the Bears at home in just an all time Sean Payton's zero to four in his last two losses Bears and losing by fifty. That is my ball take of the week. Brought to you by Guinness. Gather your friends, raise your glasses, and toast to a win. Guinness drought Stout imported by Diagio Beer Company USA, New York, New York. Please drink responsibly. We're back with another week of football and Draftking Sportsbook is keeping us in on the NFL action with great offers every single game day. New customers can bet five dollars and get two hundred dollars instantly in bonus bets. Throw five down on any of this week's epic matchups to walk away an instant winner, and DraftKings isn't stopping there. All customers can take advantage of two new offers every game day this September. Football is more fun when you're in on the action, so download the app now and sign up with the code John Joagen. New customers can bet five dollars to get two hundred dollars instantly in bonus bets only on DraftKings Sportsbook and official betting partner of the NFL with code John Jochen. The Crown is yours. Gambling prompt call winne Hunter Gambler or visit www Wine Hunter Gambler dot net. 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NFL picks seven and four if I wanted to count, which I think is just the pick that no one saw coming beside the smart guys behind the scenes, the Florida Tennessee college game, which he fucking hit with ease. Stucky's hot, Stucky, what's up bro on both?
Yeah, it's uh, we're in the midst of it now. It's uh we're gonna start to learn about although some of these things we're not gonna learn about with the at the top, we're not gonna learn about for a while. But in college, like Michigan doesn't play, it still doesn't planning one for like the next five weeks because the Big ten is so bad at the bottom and Georgia. It doesn't planning one all year, but learn a little bit about them against Auburn this week and U yeah, NFL, we got some pretty good matchups this weekend. Unfortunately, the NFL doesn't flex games this early because Bill's Dolphins over Zach Wilson in primetime would would certainly be the move.
Shows you in college has much more flexibility with that as the season goes. The NFL, and I don't blame him, right Rogers versus the Chiefs, but clearly that changes four plays in and it's like you're kind of stuck and the Dolphins are, you know, one of the teams of the last I mean, I don't remember any team starting this fast that people thought they were gonna be good. But you want to get you score seventy pointsts and you know, they got the quirky coach and they got they kind of feel like the Golden State Warriors in like twenty fifteen or something. You're like, Jesus, the hell are you gonna do with this team? But they're they're they're the underdog. This weekend, we'll get into the NFL here in a second. Now, I'm gonna do something a little different. Start before we get to your picks. But I did want to touch on because we talked about this before we hit record here. I don't know if you've seen the list of celebrities come into this game in Colorado. It's like jay Z, Lebron and Bronny probably Obama, I mean, who know. I mean, everyone's coming, legitimately, jay Z and Lebron are going obviously to I think is on the staff or something. He's always around. Shannon Sharp, steven A probably make a cameo. This game is big newon Kickoff. The ratings have been outrageous. Colorado got their ass kick last week. They took it on the chin. Pretty embarrassing, I thought, moment for them once the Oregon video comes out of them talking shit to the other plays like guys, you guys aren't Dean right, Let's be careful here, and they ran into a buzsaw, which a team that you know, I think has a legitimate chance to be a playoff team in Oregon, USC in theory does. But defensively they are not as physical as Oregon. But offensively they are elite. I mean, they got a guy that's gonna get drafted number one. They got skill, guys everywhere. Honestly, it's kind of like the team times five of TCU style, Right, it's gonna score a bunch of points, we'll give up a bunch. I mean, I didn't watch the game, but I went to the ASU game two weeks ago against Fresno State, and Fresne State beat the shit out of them, and then I'm following the score on my phone at this wedding. It's like, what is USC doing? USC is not some for every time they beat Stanford forty nine to three going into halftime, you can look up and it can be tied because their defense sucks so huge line here Colorado getting twenty one plus points at home. It feels like a lot man for a team that's you know, us Lincoln Riley's history, especially this last year, and however many games of the USC their defense is just not good. I don't care how many transfers come from the SEC.
Yeah, it's it's basically just Oklahoma picked up and moved out in Los Angeles. It's the same defensive coordinated with the same problems that they just refuse to fix. And the offense is elite. There's weapons everywhere. You have a heisman quarterback. It's all the same shit that we saw at Oklahoma, and ultimately what ends up happening is the defense burns them because you run into another league team that can score and you just can't get any stops and they can. So, yeah, this number does seem I mean, look, as you said, Fresno State shut out Arizona State. Arizona State was shut out at home for the first time since nineteen eighty eight. They had eight turnovers. I think they used eleven quarterbacks. I don't know how many used, but they used a.
Lot of They used three, they used three.
Yeah, who did nothing. And then it's like thirty five twenty eight because the USC defense just isn't that good and you can you can move the ball, and then and look, Colorado's flawed. Their offensive, it's not that great. They can't run the ball. All the defense is thin, and you know you're also missing Hunter, who's important on both sides of the ball. But Sanders is playing at such a high level that you know they should be able to put up points against this USC team. And then if it's a blowout, like USC blowing you out, like if it's fifty six twenty eight in the four, Like you could go down and score a touchdown and still cover in a complete blowout. So yeah, I was all over at Oregon last week. The one thing that concerns me that you say, you know, like but this week I'm not laying twenty one and a half with USC and that defense on the road. But every week I think it's good for like building the program and drawing attention to it for you know, potential future transfer editions. But every week for Colorado is this huge spectacle, and like it's every it's so emotional in this big event that it's got to be exhausting for the kids. You know, you a lot of these other programs that they're they're now they're going to start playing your top teams in the Pact. Well, you know, like they're beating the ship out of you know, Cupcake State in week two and they're not exerting much energy. Col Out is exerting energy every single week. And then you're bringing all these you're talking shit and then you're bringing all these celebrities in like kind.
Of a lot going on, a lot going on.
Yeah, and you're trying to and that serves as motivation for these other teams to want to beat the shit out of you. And when like in theory USC going to Colorado if there wasn't all this hoopla around Colorado, like that's supposed to be like a sleepy, trappy spot for USC and their defense, But they're they're going to come in fully focused. To me, I think it's a little too many points with.
This USC D of all the weeks Dan Lanning will have over the last last year and this year of getting ready for good teams Washington, USC, Utah, that's like serious football week, but he'll never have a week when he's that favored by that much. This is easy to like get the troops ready all week, so you're always getting these squads now. To me, it's a little different than the USC. The other thing with USC is because Fox right, their biggest game of the week ratings wise, is always that nine am for US on the West Coast kickoff, and Colorado's now been a raiding juggernaut. They love putting that game there and they did it earlier with Nebraska, and obviously they're doing it this week. Not ideal for USC.
Yeah, body clock kick.
Yeah, that's that is It's listen twelve thirty These once you get to college, you get used of playing that time, you'd rather probably play four. But that's a that's a sneaky spot that I could see USC. I don't know, I could just see it being weird, you know, Caleb. Maybe just a little dreary, you know.
Yeah, And Colorado's done it already.
Exactly, and they just got their ass kicked, so they're gonna be have just motivation to like play better. You know.
It's an easy and the place will be electric. So if they can catch USC and that defense, which is an great they can catch them early and jump out, then all of a sudden, like all the pressure shifts. You see the crowd. Is it going to be crazy? You might get a couple calls and then all of a sudden it gets really interesting. So yeah, that's a great point that very early on in this game. If Colorado is going to be live to make this again, they gotta get out to a fast start.
Okay. One thing I wanted to do because people have been asking, like Middleclough, you never make a pick, and usually I used to just bet a lot of games. I got this big remodel going on, so I gotta be I gotta be careful with my cash. What I've been doing is just going kind of big, and one hundred dollars on a game doesn't get my rocks off, So I don't I got if I'm gonna spread around. I'm just been going big on one game. Last week, I did Seattle sweated it for a minute, but you know they covered. This week, I've gone back and forth on two games.
Uh, did you got Notre Dame last week?
So I didn't because I wasn't gonna be able to watch it, But and I just I felt better. I don't know enough about college football in terms of like those two teams. I hadn't really watched Sam Hartman. He had been beating nobody's I liked the number, but I just I didn't know. I felt better about Seattle against Carolina, who I knew sucked, especially once Dalton was gonna go even though it was tough, but they scored thirty seven points. Was crazy because Carolina's defense actually pretty good. So this week I'm tempted, like I got two games circled obviously the Sunday night game, but you go, that's one of those classic, like feels too big of a lock, right Kansas City are gonna kill him and then all of a sudden, you're just in a weird game. But like Zach Will, that defense is playing really good, but I just stayed away from that. I just don't think New England's that good. I think their offense is. I think Mac Jones as average as the day as long. I don't think they're that talented. Their running game is a shell of what it was a couple of years ago when they made the playoffs and they could run down people's throats, you know, defensively. Clearly, they can just make the game ugly. I don't think they have like elite talent. They've been banged up on that unit. Everyone because Dallas kind of lays an egg in Arizona is gonna be like, oh, Dallas is actually average. Dallas minus six and a half at home. Like I viewed New England and listen, it's no disrespected Bill. I do think he is an awesome coach, and most teams, if you gave them this roster, would probably win like three games. He's gonna win probably six or seven. But they's still a six or seven win team, And to me, Dallas is still on a given week when they're playing right a top probably should be a top five team, and last week they lose one of their best players. Those guys are I wonder if that rattled them a little bit. I'm going Dallas minus six and a half and these are back to back weeks now going all in on a team, a home team, given the decent amount of points, but I just don't think New England's a good And if I ranked Dallas like fifth, i'd rank New England closer to like low twenties. That's where I'm going.
Yeah, I don't hate it. It's a good bounce back spot for Dallas. I think Dallas just got looked at some injuries on the offensive line, they lose digs and I also think that they just went in there and completely overlooked Arizona.
They were terrible in the that zone too. I mean they moved the bat.
They were in the red zone like six times and didn't score anything. But you saw this with the Giant even the Giants after loss, like they got down twenty eight nothing Arizona. So I think a lot of these teams, I think it's gonna work in San Franz favor San Francisco's favorite this week because you know, they just saw Arizona beat Dallas, right, But I think a lot of these teams knew how bad this roster was and just assumed like it's going to be a free win. And then you know, these are still professionals playing hard. So I think Dallas has kind of got caught in a sleepy spot. Yeah, I agree. I agree with your assessment on mac Jones. But the Patriots, they're just they're a weird team than me because they did play Philly really tough, and they played Miami really tough, so they can ugly up a game. And yeah, the run game isn't what it was, but that's Dallas's weakness, the run defense. I mean, Arizona ran for over two hundred against them, So yeah, I can see. I could see New England, you know, just uggling this up enough to stay with them the number. But I agree. I think I think now this spread the lookout of line was minus seven and a half. Now because Dallas lost, who cares if New England beat Zach Wilson. They basically just scored and then said we're good and punted the rest of the game. Yeah, but because Dallas lost to Arizona, you're now getting under a touchdown and a good bounce back spot at home. So yeah, I think from a market by low sell high perspective, I think Dallas is the spot. But I would be just a bit concern about New England ugling up this game enough. But I think it's Dallas or nothing.
Yeah. Philosophically, I used to gamble a lot on overs in the NBA, and then I got a little too deep into I started doing unders as well. I just and definitely in the NFL. I'm just not a big under guy. But that might be the play here, right, I mean this this game could just be low scoring Cowboys win. That's the one thing that makes me nervous. But you know, it's football. I mean last last week I was like, oh fuck, Carolin ain't scoring more than thirteen points. All of a sudden, you look up, You're like, what the hell is going on? Sah makes gambling, will just make the sweat fun. Okay, let's dive in. The Jags, who are headed overseas now for a couple of straight weeks, are playing in Atlanta, who is safe to say got their ass kick last week by the Lions. Yep, so the Jags have looked pretty terrible. And I saw Doug Peterson. I don't know if screamed at like his offensive staff last halftime, but I think they had some words clearly they got worked, which I would say was one of the shockers of the week in term just for the casual fan, Like, are the Jags not good and offensively? Like one of the things I thought their formula is going to be an elite offense and be bad on defense, but be you know, like a top five to six offense in the league, and they have not been very good on offense so far. I don't like Atlanta, never have, never really will, but definitely not this team with Desmond River. I know you like the Jags minus three. Give us a sales pitch here.
Yeah, Look, the Jags have not been good this year, but they're off back to back losses. I think this is a spot to buy them. They're going to a place that they're really familiar with Atlanta, you know, second straight road game going overseas, not as familiar there. And if you look at what Atlanta stuntif are, like you beat a rookie quarterback you were trailing in the second half, who has not looked good at all. In the opener, you beat green Bay by one. They were missing like half of their their best players.
Kind of a weird win too. I mean green Bay should have won that game. I thought I watched a lot yeah.
Yeah, even without you know, a number of key players. And then you get drilled by the Detroit team that was dealing with a lot of injuries, and just the offense is not where you know, I thought it could be. They have a lot of different chess pieces and it's just they're just amstrong because their quarterback can't throw the ball. So just on the surface, this is Trevor Lawrence versus Desmond Ritter. I'm going to side with Trevor Lawrence, even though he doesn't look great this year, but you know he's That's something we've seen with Trevor Lawrence throughout his career. So art just inconsist and see right, we will have these stretches where it looks like the best quarterback in the NFL, and then you're saying, what's going on here? I think this is a good defense to face to kind of get back on track. And most importantly, and look the Jacksonville last week they got They lost by twenty. But they Yeah, they got a white fullback returning a kick for a touchdown, which was insane. The upman returns it.
Do you have a lot of.
Yeah, they but they actually outgained That wasn't as bad as it looked. But Lawrence has definitely been off. The defense isn't great, the secondary is awful, but they're really good against the run. The defensive coordinator is a Todd Bowles the Ciple Top Bowls. Defenses just by design are always good against the run. And this defense last year excellent against the run, bad against the pass. Same thing this year. Top two, all right, top top three. I should say in rush success rate EPA for rush allowed, you could throw on them, but you can't run on them. Well, what does Atlanta want to do. They're basically a service academy the NFL. They can't throw the ball. They just want to run, so they're not gonna be able to do that. Here you see Jacks will probably bring another se eighty down forced Ritter to beat him. I don't think he can, so I think it's a good bounced back spot for the Jacks. Jack's also been a bit unlucky. They're like twenty eight percent on third downs. That's like Zach Wilson territory. Last year they were top ten in the league, and you know they're one of seven I think on fourth downs last year they were at fifty three to fifty four percent. So some of these late down variants and you know, special teams blunders have gone against him. That's just randomness. But I think it's a good bounce back spot and a good matchup most importantly, so you get the better quarterback, you get a good matchup for their defense, and in a place that they're familiar with. So I think three is a good number to layer. This is the look at lines like four and a half five. So now, because of the you know, back to back losses, Jags not looking great last week, you're getting three, And I disagree with that big of a move, especially because it's not like Atlantos impressed me.
Okay, Cleveland, Baltimore, you fall. I got a DM the other day from a Ravens fan. I do his mail bag thing and he's like, listen, I'm watching the Ravens forever. What's up with these injuries? Like why for years now? Or just guys dropping like flies constantly. It's just and I said, listen, it's football. You've seen it with the Eagles, the forty nine Ers a couple of years ago. Sometimes it's just kind of dumb luck. Now when injured guys keep getting injured, then it's kind of on you for keeping the player. But like, I don't know what else to say, besides it's football. Guys get injured.
Yeah, a lot of Ravens. Guy is one of the blame. Steve Saunders, the strength and conditioning coach, he got fired. Wasn't wasn't the problem? I think, Yeah, I don't know. I think it's just bad just bad luck. I mean. The one of the reasons why I really like the forty nine ers this year because because you have to ask yourself like, is there some systemic issue with how they're recovering, treating training when because the forty nine Ers have been in the top ten in adjusted games loss on offense and defense for like eight years. So at one point you're like, all right, how can this this keep happening? What if the forty nineands ever got good injury lock for an entire season, how dangerous would they actually be? Yeah, and the Ravens are going on like three straight years now where it is just horrendous injury. If you're down seven eight key starters already, and look, yeah, I like the Browns here in this game. This is similar to last week. I took the Browns, I faded thes my team, the Ravens, they just have two. I don't think the market's adjusting for how many injuries they have them. You're missing your top corner. You have the injuries at safety, You've lost your slot corner, debt pieces in the secondary. They don't have a pass rush anymore because Oway Ajabo or hurt. You've already lost Dobbins. You have other injuries at running back. You know Beckham wasn't practicing. You have injuries at wide receiver. Offensive linemen might come back this week, but there still might be hobbled and might not go. I mean, that's a lot of starters missing. Meanwhile, the Browns, he lost Chubb, but other than that, they're pretty healthy. And this defense I think might be the best in the NFL. They are dominating right now. I loved him coming into the year because last year they just had these communication issues. Just get a new defensive coordinator can fix that low hanging fruit. They add a bulk in the interior to fix the run defense, and you bringing wan Thornhill Dad to the safety group already have three really good corners. Miles Garrett is playing out of his mind defensive player of the year level. Last week he just destroyed, destroyed Tennessee to the point where Rabel just was shaking his head and they were just punting to get out of town at the end of that game. This defense is dominated right now. They're playing with so much swagger and confidence that I've only seen from like the most dominant defenses over the past twenty years. And Lamar is still learning this new offense under pressure. This season, He's thirty two out of thirty four quarterbacks quarterback rating, and he should be under pressure a lot here. And look, yeah there's no Chubb, but the Browns still should be able to run the ball a bit. But last week he saw Watson finally have a really good game, passing twenty seven of thirty three three hundred yards, and that was attack a Tennessee secondary that's dealing with some injuries a bit more vulnerable than the rund the same thing here, So I think that he can hit enough deep shots. This Brown's defense is playing so well. To put into perspective, the Browns success rate allowed on defense is twenty five percent. The next best is the Bills at thirty eight percent.
What's considered success, So.
Like if you gain you know, if you score on a play, you know, if you were to gain you know, four yards on first down, if you convert a third down. So people use different tweaks of different formats, but it's basically that like are you getting you know, you're having a successful first down play, then that was great. Successful you having a successful second up, third down is always that you convert a third down and then if you scored a touchdown, obviously that's successful. Twenty five percent, next is thirty eight. Last year the defense that led the NFL was thirty nine and a half percent. They're at twenty five. Teams have had thirty nine drives against them. One has gotten into the red zone. It was last week on a miraculous four and four bomb that Tannehill just threw up. They didn't even score in that possession because Miles Garrett sacked Tannehill within a second and time. Even though Tannel was probably instructed to throw the ball away, he just couldn't even have time to throw it away. Time ran out in the half and Tennessee ran the locker room because I didn't have any timeouts. I mean, this team should be three and now they gave up two fluky defensive touchdowns to Pittsburgh defense playing on another level, Raven's too many injuries, So yeah, I think Brown's get this done. I actually look, it could be low scoring division game, so I actually played instead of laning the points, I actually did play money line. I parlayed them money line with the forty nine ers money line, which I think is safe and that gets you even money because this could be a really low scoring game. I feel a little bit more comfortable with the money line on Cleveland if someone wants to take that route as well. But I also like them. If you can get you know, two and a half up the minus one fifteen.
Well, to me something to keep an eye on, and I've heard some people talking about it this week. I didn't watch that much of the game, though, I mean, I know about their talent up front, and obviously the corners are sweet. If this defense is like legitimately the number one defense in the league, all DeShawn has to be is operate like he doesn't need to be mahomes he s needs to be more dackish Jimmy Garoppolo is. And are we looking at a twelve thirteen win team because if I can't score on you, fuck I I have to score thirteen fourteen points a game. I mean, they're they're going to overwhelm people, right.
Yeah, yeah, I mean it is THEFC, so it's still tough, Like you know, it's gonna there's gonna be some tough kiends in the NFC North. You're always gonna be in these absolute wars.
They play the forty they play the forty nine ers. This year they play at Seattle. I mean they're gonna have some tough non conference games because that division plays the NFC East. Yeah, but excuse me, the NFC West. Yeah.
The I will say that the schedule is kind of working out for them because you got you you gotta win over Sincy, you gotta win over since the in Week one when Burrow was banged up. And then you're gonna get the Ravens here who are dealing with a lot of injuries, and they get the forty nine ers, but that's after a bye week, so you get a bye week before that game, which is definitely gonna help you.
And you know, you know who the Niners play next week, Sunday Night, Dallas Cowboys. So that's gonna They're gonna come off of war, so they're gonna be banged up. Someoneill get hurt in that game.
Yeah. So and then after that, you know you got Colt Seahawks, Cardinals.
So yeah, they play the Broncos this year, they get the Bears, they get Tech. I mean, they got how's this team if this defense just maintains this not a playoff team?
Yeah, they should be. They should be a playoff team, especially because if you look at the Jets, the Jets are done. They were supposed to be in the conversation. You know, the Chargers are charging. They were supposed to be in the conversation. So yeah, you look around and you say, well, it looks like it's just gonna be the Chiefs from that vision, and you got the Bills and the Dolphins, right, and then you're the AFC North. You're definitely gonna get two teams. And with with Barrow, looks like I think it it's gonna be the Browns. And then I think that the Ravens probably, but I think the Browns are certainly put team. I think they're actually gonna win the division. But you're right, he doesn't have to be great now. Losing Chubb is gonna hurt, like in some of those games where it's like a leasing battle and you can just he could just churn out those yards. But yeah, last year he was bad, which you can't have. He just has to be average. If this defense is gonna be as elite as it looks, and I think it can be.
Yeah, to me, the only wild card would be like if they lose a weird like the pressure's on him, right because you know Miles and the defense is gonna be fine. You saw it on the Monday night game. It's like, what the fuck is going on here? So it's like they play in a couple of bright lights game like against the forty nine ers and he looks like shit and they lose seventeen to thirteen. That pressure on him, But god, I mean I didn't, I mean, we knew how good Miles is. Sometimes when you have a guy like that, like a Miles, like a Micah Parsons of Bosa, everyone else like even their random rotational guys get this like fake swag that turns into real swag, and they all of a sudden you look up, like, wait, this guy at seven sacks on the season. It's just because defensive linemen all rotate together. Miles Garrett could be playing with the seventh defensive line. You know, it's not like a normal position that way. So yeah, I might have underestimated them for sure. And then probably just I just.
Looked real quick. I only have them an underdog projected underdog in three more games this year, none by more than a field goal. So yeah, I mean, and they're only going to face like a couple more teams.
San Fran, you think they'll be Will they be favored assuming let's say the Niners beat the Cowboys? Would that would that be like a pick them?
You think if San franc San Frian, maybe sant Fran minus one pick? I bet sanfa probably opens minus one Browns take money, probably closes a pick. But yeah, it will depend.
That's a good Browns, that's a good morning game.
Shit, great great game. It will depend on what Sanford obviously does against Dallas and then assuming Cleveland wins this week, because then you're not going to get another data point. But if Cleveland wins this week, San Francisco wins against Dallas, yeah, that's the one either way, that's space a coin flip.
Okay, let's go. Uh, let's go a game of the week. It's probably I said this on the pod yesterday. A team will never in the history of the league again give up seventy points and then you're favored the next week. That will never happen again in league history. Do you agree?
An you scored and yeah, and the team that scored seventy points is an underdog.
Do you think would you rather lose fifty to nothing or seventy to twenty because that's basically three more touchdowns on top.
I would say fifty to nothing because then you're always you're always going to be in the in like the graphic, Like in thirty years from now, when someone scores like sixty eight points, they'll say, here are the three we're you know, highest scoring games in NFL history, and your defense will live in infamy there. So I'll say fifty nothing. But the tackling it was, it was it was embarrassing. There was guys just on on the ground, just like not even dying. It looked like they quit.
Well they did.
It was embarrassing to me.
Even though it's not technically the NFL record because it's nineteen sixty six, it is no one will ever forget that. That's of age and watches football like seventy is the new modern day record in everyone's mind. So like Sean Payton ain't shaken that for a while.
Yeah, I think that they should have kicked the field goal to set the record. I mean, what is this, Like sportsman shul.
Is like, come on, you could I remember Steve Steve Kurr did the same thing one time. Clay had sixty through three quarters, like let him try to get eighty and yeah, he didn't play him in the fourth quarter. It's like, this is fun, it's sports, Like what are we doing? Yeah, you score seventy and uh, obviously you're playing one of the better teams in the league over the last three or four years, but you're an underdog and it's a team that you beat last year. Though that game was really weird, and statistically, you know better than me, it wasn't in an outlier situation than a team with you know, the difference in yardages and everything ever loses that game the Bills did. What's your thoughts. I mean, the Bill's minus two and a half. It feels like everyone's gonna be on Miami this week. I would imagine they're taking a lot of public cash.
Yeah, a ton of big public side this week. But yeah, I like the Bills here. This line, the look I love is minus three and a half. So now you're getting you know, on you're getting two and a half because of what Miami did. But what is buff Buffalo last two weeks has beat two teams seventy five to thirteen. Like it's not like, I mean, Buffalo is rolling. That offensive line is playing well, which is the big question coming in the year. And what Miami did was unbelievable. McDaniel's awesome. That offense is great, and they did it without Armstead and Waddle by the way, but they did it. Their offense has exploded against the Chargers and the Broncos, who haven't been able to stop a Nosebley this year. I mean, Sam Howe put up thirty two points in three quarters against the Broncos defense to come back from seventeen down. Sam how last week did nothing against his Bill's defense. He was sacked nine times, I think, and they got absolutely the seal club by Buffalo. And you know, Buffalo, they're look the way that I look at this game. And by the way, when these two teams played late last year, Buffalo is a seven point home favorite. This is a big overreaction. And now you're coming down across the three and yeah, look it's a week. You never want to overreact to one thing that you've seen in the NFL. Miami's offense looked amazing last week. They rolled. But if you go back thirty years in the NFL, teams that went by more than thirty five points the next week, they're thirty eight percent against the spread. So teams that look, oh my god, they're went by thirty five, usually you might get a little over correction in the market, which I think we got here. And you know, go back to the the New Engle game. New England kind of slowed down Miami enough to win that game. They just didn't have an offense, right, They've been getting across the fifty and then you know, mec Jones and those receivers just couldn't make enough place. But they had opportunities to win that game. Held Miami under thirty. There's some things that McDermott can take from that. McDermott's own to in the past. And Buffalo. Look, this is how I look at this game. Buffalo has an elite offense. Miami has an elite offense. Buffalo has an elite defense. Miami does not. Miami's defense right now, they're still trying to figure it out. You know, you're missing Ramsey Howard was supposed to be their top corner. I think he's passed over the hill and past his prime. Yeah, that defense isn't great, So I just think and then look the specialties. Miami special teams last year, by some ratings, were dead last in the NFL. This year they've been bad as well. Buffalo last year, by some retrics, finished number one, So that could matter in a game that should could be close. So I have the team playing at home with the better defense and the better special teams, and in a matchup of two lead offenses. What I think that leads to is just Buffalo's D will get one or two more key stops in this game. Should be fun. But now to this line, you know you can get a cheap three or two and a half. I think that you have to take Buffalo here and soe Miami after what they did last week.
Every to highlight of them doing something sweet, there's no one around them.
Yeah, no pressure, never gets no pressure. I mean, and they blitz. They blitz a ton. I don't know what Vance Joseph is doing, but yeah, they get no pressure whatsoever. He was If you look at the defense, like an advanced metric of all all the Denver defensive, it's like pressure, ray hurries, knockdowns, It's it's just I've never even seen it. It's just zero's it's just like no one showed out and did anything.
You hit this guy the forty nine ers game last year. They came in, it was like, ah, there's gonna be a big game, and they just kept hitting them. They blitzed them, and it threw them off. Even if obviously, if he gets injured, it would throw Miami off. But if he's gonna play and stay, you know, you gotta hit him, whether that's blitzing obviously, Like you said, Buffalo can just generate pressure with their front, Like you hit this guy. I mean, there's a reason he took taekwondo this offseason. Try to learn how to fall because when he gets hit, he flies to the ground. He's not very big, so that's gotta be the key for all the big boys who were Now Miami's trying to act like they're in that category. We'll see. I mean, you know, beside the weather, which when you look at their schedule, they actually sneaky get to avoid if your BUFFALOGI you would have loved to flip the two games. You would like them to come to you December. You wouldn't want to go to Miami right now. But regardless of the weather, like hit to U and that's like, okay, will pepper you like a Mahomes or Josh Allen and can you maintain this, you know, scoring thirty honest, we'll see because I would bet no.
Yeah, yeah. I mean Buffalo this year one of four teams with a pressure rate of over thirty percent, and they have a bottom three blitz rate, so.
They don't even need to get pressure to blitz.
Yeah, they's pressure at samhow fifty eight percent of his dropbacks last week and finished with nine sacks and barely blitzed. A lot of that is, you know how it is also holding the ball too long. But they should be able to get pressure and then the Buffalo defense, always under McDermott, always does a tremendous job in preventing exposive plays. It helps to have two just savvy veteran safeties and Hide and Puyer back there. So Miami's gonna have to work it down the field. They're gonna score. Offense is too good not to but I think Buffalo will get a cup key stops here and Buffalo's offense should should cook down the field against this Miami defensive.
Do you think if if not very good, if Miami loses this game, then that division's wide open, right, Buffalo has just good a chance in Miami to win it. If Miami does not win, the division is a wild card and has to go to places like Kansas City or Buffalo. I mean, let's face it, I would not put them on that level. Now. If they are able to win the division and get home games against them, then I'd give them a chance. But they they are like to me, if Kansas City was, you know, had to go on the road like they're the four seed. I don't think they will be. But let's just hypothetically say I would think nothing of it. Right, even Buffalo I do believe that they could go on the road with Josh Allen Miami at least until we see it. Like, I think they got to be the home team to have a chance come January just because the weather. I mean historically you fall trends like aren't they oh and whatever, and you know forty degree in below just as a franchise, because you can't manipulate that when it's eighty seven degrees January third at practice.
Yeah, yeah, the one the one exit, you know, I would make an exception as if they were going on the road in you know, the NFC.
Yeah, I'm talking of Kansas City.
Yeah, but all the all the places you're gonna play are outdoors, and I see all the teams that you're gonna face, you're outdoors in weather. So it's not like you're you're going on the road and getting to play like in New Orleans, right, even though it's ost environment, you're gonna fast track. Yeah, You're you're going in weather and you don't have a great defense. So yeah, you want to be Miami's best shot. I agree. He's at home and winning in shootouts against the other top tier AFC quarterbacks and offenses.
Yeah, they are a fun story and this game is this is gets his own TV type game. I can't I can't wait. So thanks ducky. Uh so you're going, You're going Cleveland money line taking the Jags bright and early in just I don't know if I'm watching much of this game Jags versus Atlanta. And then uh, You're you're going with the smart guys taking Buffalo minus two and a half Miami. I'm gonna go with Dallas minus six and a half against Belichick and you know, one and three start Bill this is it could get ugly in New England quick.
So ye three is you're you're close to dead in the a f C.
Okay, stuck, You have a good weekend, enjoy college football, and then, like I always enjoyed the National Football League, I will talk to you next week.
Absolutely rot your Cowboys, bet end Still Boys, Baby. The volume